Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 349: First Party characters after the Fighters Pass

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I don't mean to drag this out, but now I'm curious... what gets counted as a sentence? I know I tried to pair down my earlier posts because I'm prone to rambling and long-winded sentences, so there's a chance that they may not have been counted (and if so, I accept that), but is the content of the sentence taken into account at all?

There's a difference between these example "want" explanations:
-"I like them. I want them in."
-"I think this character could fill a gap for their series in Smash, and they could bring a neat moveset to the game, but I don't really care if they get in or not."
One is the absolute minimum, while the other at least attempts to give some reasoning, even if it's technically one proper sentence. Would the first be counted in spite of that, would both be dismissed, or could the second be counted despite not meeting the rule?
Thanks for asking. The short answer is that I would count the first one and not the second one. The reason for that is that, while I could count the second one (as it’s enough reasoning imo), that would basically turn the rule into something subjective that I arbitrarily decide, instead of something objective that people can count on.

You guys are gonna need to explain your scores if you want them to be counted

Honestly, when I can't think of a second sentence, I usually just take one of the commas and turn it into a period.
I actually kind of endorse that course of action. However, I will note that I do take nuance with punctuation into account. For example, when sentences are within parentheses, or the particular case of Troykv Troykv who uses ; instead of other punctuation marks.
 
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I must say I'm a bit confused by all the people coming in here and saying something along the lines of "Square would choose Sora or a Dragon Quest character instead, so Geno's done for". You all realize Square Enix doesn't choose the characters for Nintendo's game, right? Believe it or not, Nintendo does have a say in what characters go in their own game, and I don't think they'd go for Sora, a character whose benefits begin and end with Ultimate for them, would need to have DLC profits split between both Square and Disney, would cost extra to license, and serves only to promote a major release coming to every platform but their own, as their first, second, or probably even third choice. From an economical standpoint, Sora's not as obvious a choice as people assume. Remember, negotiation is always a two-way street, and just as we shouldn't consider solely Nintendo's interests in these types of deals, we also shouldn't only consider what Square Enix wants, which the trap that I'm seeing an awful lot of posters here fall into.
They still have to go through the company to get the character, so yes it still is Square’s decision on who they REALLY want. They still have a right to say who they want in as playable and if Nintendo agrees with them it is what is by that point.

They could really care less about who the fans would want by this point, we don’t get a say this time. Honestly, I barely think we even had a say during the ballot, so who knows if that’s even going to play a factor with DLC, and Square has other choices for possibilities compared to other companies that would be huge compared to Geno who people less expect at this point.
 
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Geno:
Chance: 20%-I'm confident we'll get the Square character that Vergeben talked about, that's for sure. However, the whole concept could easily mean someone different from Geno. To mention some of those possible characters:
*Sora: I get it, owner rights belong to Disney, but Square still develops Kingdom Hearts, and since the character is one of Nomura's babies, it's understandable why he'd be considered a S-E character.
*A Dragon Quest character: The series is incredibly popular after all, and also happens to have a long history with Nintendo.
*Neku: Final Remix funded by the Big N itself. Probably useful for promotional purposes.
*Sephiroth: FFVII may have too little content in Smash, but there's more than enough room to get more if they can squeeze Sephiroth with his own stage.
*Noctis: Square liked to shove him everywhere. One could "but what about FFXV's director leaving the company?" and I just respond: "well, that happened when Sakurai already said Nintendo choose the characters."
*2B: We've heard people at Square talking about being interested in making a Switch version of Automata. For all we know, they could've negotiated it already.
And I'm only mentioning those because I'm also going by Vergeben's statement about hearing seven names and who I personally believe they are (the remaining one being Geno of course).
Want: 90%-I still want him in. Don't really care about other Square guys, except Sora and Neku, those are fine. And I also don't care about more Mario characters because it's, well, Mario, it makes sense for them to have such a large amount of playable characters; much more if we're talking about a very unique character like Geno, compared to most of the Fire Emblem guys, which share many traits among each other.
 
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Geno

Chance: 50 - Feel like he's not as likely anymore now that we know Nintendo picked who the final 5 were. I think sora or a dragon quest character are more likely now, but since we don't know if Nintendo values external buzz or internal buzz more with these picks it would be foolish to eliminate him from contention.

Want: 50 - Would be nice for his fan base to finally see him here. Papagenos video about the subject helped win me over since the last time we rated him, which made me think there might be more to him than just a random nostalgia character

Nominations:
Gen 8 Pokemon x 10
 
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11th

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Ze Diglett Ze Diglett : ... but Nintendo doesn't own Geno. Square does, and they have every right to say "lol no" if Nintendo asks for him. They hold the power and they have every right to use it if they don't see his inclusion benefiting them enough. (And, let's face it, Nintendo would probably get most of the credit from the fanbase for managing to get him, and he might be classified as a Mario series character in-game, which knocks out most non-monetary incentive that Square might have to allow his use.)

That aside, there are benefits to having a character like Sora. While KH3 isn't coming to Switch, it could help them get older KH games re-released on it, just as FFVII, FFIX, FFX, and FFX-2 were announced to be coming to the Switch in September. It's also a show of good faith towards Square that Nintendo isn't just prioritizing their own gain, and helps solidify the relationship between the two companies to prevent another fallout from happening in the future. However, that definitely doesn't make Sora a "lock", or any other SE character. All it means is that there would be more incentive to add them than Geno.
 
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Troykv

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I actually kind of endorse that course of action. However, I will note that I do take nuance with punctuation into account. For example, when sentences are within parentheses, or the particular case of Troykv Troykv who uses ; instead of other punctuation marks.
Did I do something wrong? I thought the ";" it's to separate general ideas, maybe I accidentally used it instead of the normal "," for some reason.

I actually almost putted a ";" in the original text instead of the "," quite a funny coincidences; don't you think?
 
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Geno:

Chance: 1%. Sakurai had the perfect chance to add Geno, so if he didn't do it now, he probably won't do it at all. Even if he did plan to add him but just ran out of time, the DLC's out of his hands, since Nintendo's picking. Knowing Nintendo, they're more likely to go for some promotional FE Protagonist than a fan favorite who only appeared in 1 game. In addition, Hitagi has seemed to be shying away from Geno by name-dropping someone else, and saying that Sprits won't get in as DLC. That reminds me; he's deconfirmed because he's a spirit. It's gonna take a miracle for anyone, not just Geno, to come back from that.

Want 40%. I, personally, don't care for Geno, and would rather see Fawful or Paper Mario, since they'd better represent the RPG series, in my opinion. However, I understand there are many fans who DO want Geno, and considering how the DLC looks to be, considering Vergeben, Hitagi, and Sakurai's statements, I would just consider the DLC a win if ANY fan favorite (No Steve doesn't count) can get in. My want score is less so for myself and moreso for others who do.

Nomination: No Fan Favorites x10
 
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Ze Diglett Ze Diglett : ... but Nintendo doesn't own Geno. Square does, and they have every right to say "lol no" if Nintendo asks for him. They hold the power and they have every right to use it if they don't see his inclusion benefiting them enough. (And, let's face it, Nintendo would probably get most of the credit from the fanbase for managing to get him, and he might be classified as a Mario series character in-game, which knocks out most non-monetary incentive that Square might have to allow his use.)

That aside, there are benefits to having a character like Sora. While KH3 isn't coming to Switch, it could help them get older KH games re-released on it, just as FFVII, FFIX, FFX, and FFX-2 were announced to be coming to the Switch in September. It's also a show of good faith towards Square that Nintendo isn't just prioritizing their own gain, and helps solidify the relationship between the two companies to prevent another fallout from happening in the future. However, that definitely doesn't make Sora a "lock", or any other SE character. All it means is that there would be more incentive to add them than Geno.
Nintendo also has the power to say "lol no" to anything Square suggests as well, and I think they would to Sora and a DQ character since they don't benefit them beyond empty promises that "they'd sell better" [citation needed] and would be way harder and more expensive to acquire the rights to use for a variety of reasons. This is precisely why we need to consider the desires of Nintendo and Square Enix in a balance rather than only considering what the latter has to say here. They both have their own interests, and they both have the power to say no to anything the other party says. That's kind of what the term "negotiation" entails. If anything, Nintendo's the one in the power position here, not Square; any way you slice it, Smash is Smash and exposure is exposure, so it's not like Square Enix is just gonna pick up the ball and go home if they don't get exactly who they want in Smash. In that scenario, they're gonna take what they can get, and that very well could mean shutting up and taking Nintendo's money for Geno. Besides, we have no reason to believe Square would even try to strongarm Nintendo into anything considering Cloud was a surprise pick to them, but they rolled with it anyway.
 
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ZRoy

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Chance: 50%

You know Geno had a lot going for him. Sakurai wanted him in past Smash games, he was a Mii Fighter costume, just like how King K. Rool, Inkling and Isabelle were before they got confirmed as characters, and he's a fan favorite. But now, after the roster has been confirmed and that Nintendo has decided the DLC, I'm not so sure anymore. I thought he would be revealed before release, but that's not the case. It's a toss-up now, unless Nintendo really knows how much fans want him in for DLC.

Want: 80%

I think he would be a great character, and definitely much different than the rest of the Mario characters. I don't know much about his game personally but the hype around him has made me hyped too, so yeah I would love to see him in Smash.
 

Kotor

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Geno

Chance: 10%
Want: 10%

Well I'm not sure about Geno being the fabled "Second Square character." I admit I'm in the camp that a more marketable character would make sense as DLC. Geno doesn't exactly have that. He has fan demand, but someone outside that hardcore section isn't gonna recognize him let alone ask for him.

I played Super Mario RPG, remember him having a OHKO move in the game, but I have no strong attachment towards him like other people do. Besides, I'd rather see Sora or Sephiroth get in over Geno.

Kracko as a boss x10
 
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Last time I wrote about Geno it got a bit heated so I'm going to try and be...less vicious with my take on Geno. KInd of annoyed, I had the whole thing typed up and it sounded pretty reasonable but good ol' Smashboards deleted the saved draft so here we go again...

Geno
Chance: 3%

In terms of Mario characters, what can they offer to Nintendo as a company?

What can Waluigi offer? More sales for Mario Kart 8 Deluxe. Mario Tennis Aces. Super Mario Party plus most upcoming Mario sports spinoff titles that are no doubt in the works.

What can Captain Toad or Toad offer? The above games and Captain Toad Treasure Tracker and Super Mario Odyssey.

What can Toadette offer? More sales for the above games AND New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe

What can Paper Mario offer? Works for sales on the next Paper Mario game.

What does Geno offer? Maybe some sales on the SNES classic.

The harsh truth is Geno offers nothing to Nintendo as a Mario character. He's a bigger ballache to get than any of the other Mario characters for a fraction of the recognisability and marketing purpose. Heck, he was even removed in the remake possibly due to Nintendo not wanting to pay for Geno's rights.

HOWEVER

If we want to look at Geno in terms of a Square character things change slightly; Geno is at least heavily tied to Nintendo so I can see why Nintendo may want him if they for some reason HAD to have a Square character. Sora and Lara Croft have their games more associated on other platforms...Slime however is Geno's real threat I feel. Dragon Quest is big, and Slime is the mascot. Piranha Plant has blown away the generic reps argument so there's that to contend with.

Would Square want Geno to be used? No. I don't believe so.
Mario Sports Mix, a Mario game created by Square that had Square characters in it didn't want to use him or Mallow instead choosing Slime, Moogle,Cactaur, Black Mage, White Mage and Ninja when adding them into their own produced Mario game would have made perfect sense and been an amazing cameo.

The only person who has ever shown any interest in Geno was Sakurai himself.

Want: 0%
I don't know whether it's because I'm european and thus didn't play SMRPG in my youth, but Geno to me is no more important than Goombella or Vivian from Paper Mario the Thousand Year Door is and so seeing everyone claim Geno is the most important Mario character left is a bit like saying Ricky the Kangaroo from Zelda is the most important Zelda character left to add; a side helper character from a big Nintendo title created by a third party company.

SImply said Geno as a Mario representative is a poor choice. Toad/Captain Toad has had four titles to his name as lead protagonist and is the face of the Mushroom Kingdom. Waluigi may get called a meme pick by people and fans alike but at least he isn't an echo chamber pick.

When people tell me Geno is the most important Nintendo character not in, I have to question how far they've bigged up his minor role in their minds. Bigger than Dixie Kong? Bigger than Bandana Waddle Dee? Bigger than Toad? Bigger than Waluigi? Bigger than Paper Mario? I find it really bizarre.

If Geno and Mallow were to be reintroduced into say...Mario Kart or Tennis or Party or Golf or literally ANYTHING first? I'd welcome them happily back into the Mario Universe. But for Geno to get in before the important current Mario cast is something that'll leave a sour taste in my mouth no matter what.

This didn't turn out as nice as my previous one. Geno really brings out the worst in me.
 

DaUsername

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Geno
Chance: 10%
While he's popular among the Smash fanbase (and apparently Sakurai himself), that's pretty much the only thing he has going for him. Square Enix has several other characters that are generally more well known and it seems likely that one of those would get in instead.
Want: 75%
He seems like he would be fun to play as, even Sakurai thinks so.
I won't be too upset if he doesn't make it, though.

Banjo prediction: 20%
Noms: Stages outside Fighter Pass x10
 
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Geno

Chance: 5%
Nintendo picking the DLC hurt his chances.
If we are getting another Square Enix rep, Nintendo would more likely pick a character from another series like Dragon Quest, or even another FF character than Geno.

Want: 10%
After really thinking about him, I saw nothing really interesting about him.
Geno was one of my picks in my signature but he was also my least wanted character out of them, he is no longer in it.
I don't see him as a character I want anymore, and there are other characters I want to get in more.

Nomations: Grovyle x5 and Boss: Kracko x5
 

KeyOh

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Geno
Chance: 10%
There's quite a bit stacked against him now that we're moving into DLC. As we all know, Nintendo made the choices this time around. Despite his longstanding popularity, it's hard to see Nintendo choosing him as one of five characters to be sold. They have multiple other characters they could pick up just from Square Enix alone. It's really hard to see them going for a relatively niche character when there are other viable choices available right alongside him. Geno not reprising his cameo role in the Mario and Luigi Super Star Saga remake might also be indicative of the fact that Nintendo is not interested in pleasing fan demand for him. I'm not going to rule him out just yet, but at this point it seems like he was base game or bust.

Want: 55%
I'm not against him, but I'm not going to be thrilled at his inclusion. I enjoy his design and love Super Mario RPG, but I'm not dying to see him return. Personally, I was satisfied seeing him as a costume, but I'm definitely not a diehard Geno fan. It would be nice to see him in just to make his fans happy, but that's about it. I do think his inclusion would be better handled now, though, as he's guaranteed to come with Super Mario RPG music tracks and a dedicated stage.
 

SPEN18

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Geno

Chance: 15%
Part of me wants to go higher...but after the November Direct things don't look good for characters like Geno who rely primarily on fan demand. It's unfortunate, since things were really looking good for him at a few points during this cycle. To me, he had a much better chance in the base roster compared to the marketing shenanigans that go on during the DLC season. I imagine showing up as an icon (or whatever you wanna call it) isn't great for his chances, though it doesn't outright disqualify him. He's not completely out of the running, as the allegedly leaked Square rep could still turn out to be him.

Want: 30%
Never was too big on Geno personally, as I've never played Super Mario RPG and the character's design and abilities don't make a huge impression on me. Not sure if it's really necessary to have a playable character exclusively from SMRPG, as it is technically related to the Mario universe, albeit a very unique piece of it with a significant history. That said, I'd be happy for Geno's fans if he got in, and I'd take him over Sora or a Dragon Quest rep any day.

====

Noms: Andy x5
 
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Everybody, don't forget to do your noms (unless you have no noms, you want to do somebody already on the schedule, or you want to do somebody disqualified from the race i.e. an Assist Trophy/Poké Ball/Boss Fight (I think, but IIRC it only disconfirms Dracula, Yellow Devil, Metal Face, and Rathalos, not like they'd be playable anyway). Also, noms today are of the x10 variety, so you can go all out.

Sorry if this isn't productive to discussion, but I've noticed a lot of people giving no noms for what seems to be no reason, or just giving 5 like usual.
 
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Geno

Chance: 10%

Man, I remember giving him 90% for base game the last round. Good times. While I'm still genuinely surprised he didn't make it, I feel that was his best shot. I fully expect a Square Enix newcomer, but I really don't see Geno being suggested as the pick. He certainly has his popularity among hardcore fans, but as a one shot from over 20 years ago, he's not going to be cared about nearly as much among the newer crowd, and he's certainly not going to promote anything. He simply would have made much more sense on base than as extra content, in my opinion. Still, I can't count him out completely. He definitely has a solid fanbase, and that could very well be enough.

Want: 5%

I'd be happy for the supporters and if it happens they've earned it, but otherwise I've never really cared about Geno. No connection to him and see him as relatively minor when it comes to third parties and Mario characters, so there's other options for both I'd prefer.

Just gonna let noms and predictions go for now, pretty much everyone I could think of is already set to be rated.
 
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Did I do something wrong? I thought the ";" it's to separate general ideas, maybe I accidentally used it instead of the normal "," for some reason.

I actually almost putted a ";" in the original text instead of the "," quite a funny coincidences; don't you think?
Oh no, nothing wrong at all. You we’re just the first example that came to mind of particular punctuation.
 

11th

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Ze Diglett Ze Diglett :
I never said that Square would get to (or even attempt to) counter-offer, though I do think Nintendo might be more open to it than Mr. Sakurai. It's one thing for him to go ask for a character. That man seems to have ties to so many people, and if you worked with him once over twenty years ago he probably still has your name and old phone number on file... maybe even your new one, too. When he asks for or is approached about a character, it's a more personal experience because he's the director of the game and he's friends with a lot of other folks in the industry. (See: Mr. Kojima & Snake.) But Nintendo would probably just send suits over to talk to other suits and work out a deal, and they would have to have the "OK" ahead of time for any character that they put on the list for Mr. Sakurai to pick from.

Sora does have another benefit that I failed to mention: He would be an internet breaker. Everyone has their doubts on him because of the ties to Disney and the current lack of Nintendo ties. Why wouldn't Nintendo want an internet breaking character in their video game? Geno would generate buzz in Smash and gaming circles, but I doubt he would push the game into the spotlight like that. I do agree, however, that a DQ rep might not be the best choice from Nintendo's perspective due to the lack of international fame (there's a better word for this, but it's currently escaping me), and that is part of why I don't think that the hypothetical SE pick would be from it.

Keep in mind that I'm fairly neutral on both Geno and Sora, and I don't have ties to either game or character. However, I do know what it's like to support a character who has the odds stacked against them. Lip was (and technically still is) my number one pick, but she has been consistently shafted for twenty-three years now, so I'm not going to go around and pretend that she has any shot of making it as DLC or otherwise -- and she's only second-party. I just think that Geno fans are hyping themselves up for disappointment. I'd rather be the "bad guy" and try to temper expectations than feed into a likely dead dream.

And if I'm wrong, if he is in, I will be happy for you guys. He would be an absolute love letter to fans from both companies because the only reason for him to make it would be the fan push, unlike many other characters who could have a secondary motive behind them. (Yes, even Ridley and, to an extent, K. Rool.)

... unless they decided to do something crazy like SMRPG2 and we just don't know about it yet, then he'd be in for marketing reasons. :b
(Regardless, if he does get in, you guys had better send a massive "thank you" letter to Square and Nintendo, because they really don't have to do it.)
 
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Ze Diglett Ze Diglett :
I never said that Square would get to (or even attempt to) counter-offer, though I do think Nintendo might be more open to it than Mr. Sakurai. It's one thing for him to go ask for a character. That man seems to have ties to so many people, and if you worked with him once over twenty years ago he probably still has your name and old phone number on file... maybe even your new one, too. When he asks for or is approached about a character, it's a more personal experience because he's the director of the game and he's friends with a lot of other folks in the industry. (See: Mr. Kojima & Snake.) But Nintendo would probably just send suits over to talk to other suits and work out a deal, and they would have to have the "OK" ahead of time for any character that they put on the list for Mr. Sakurai to pick from.

Sora does have another benefit that I failed to mention: He would be an internet breaker. Everyone has their doubts on him because of the ties to Disney and the current lack of Nintendo ties. Why wouldn't Nintendo want an internet breaking character in their video game? Geno would generate buzz in Smash and gaming circles, but I doubt he would push the game into the spotlight like that. I do agree, however, that a DQ rep might not be the best choice from Nintendo's perspective due to the lack of international fame (there's a better word for this, but it's currently escaping me), and that is part of why I don't think that the hypothetical SE pick would be from it.

Keep in mind that I'm fairly neutral on both Geno and Sora, and I don't have ties to either game or character. However, I do know what it's like to support a character who has the odds stacked against them. Lip was (and technically still is) my number one pick, but she has been consistently shafted for twenty-three years now, so I'm not going to go around and pretend that she has any shot of making it as DLC or otherwise -- and she's only second-party. I just think that Geno fans are hyping themselves up for disappointment. I'd rather be the "bad guy" and try to temper expectations than feed into a likely dead dream.

And if I'm wrong, if he is in, I will be happy for you guys. He would be an absolute love letter to fans from both companies because the only reason for him to make it would be the fan push, unlike many other characters who could have a secondary motive behind them. (Yes, even Ridley and, to an extent, K. Rool.)

... unless they decided to do something crazy like SMRPG2 and we just don't know about it yet, then he'd be in for marketing reasons. :b
(Regardless, if he does get in, you guys had better send a massive "thank you" letter to Square and Nintendo, because they really don't have to do it.)
I'm not putting any stock in Geno being in as DLC, for the record. His best shot was for the base roster and I recognize that, so at this point, it'll be a Christmas miracle to me if he does get in. I just don't dig all these people coming in here and calling Geno an impossibility because one of the parties involved would rather have someone else. They're only looking at half of the equation, I feel.
I don't think Nintendo is as concerned with chasing headlines as people seem to think, so if Sora was chosen, I don't think it was because he'd make IGN and Kotaku wet themselves. That said, I do agree that Sora is Geno's main competition at this point as far as the hypothetical Square spot. An awful lot of Geno fans are counting him out early on, and I don't really think that's wise since he's definitely on SE's minds as of late and has obvious mainstream appeal going for him, even if they'd have to go through Disney to get him. It really depends on who holds out longer at the negotiation table, Nintendo or Square Enix. If it's SE, we're pretty much getting Sora, no questions asked, but if it's Nintendo, then things could get interesting.
 
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Geno Boost

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>He is probably the most requested character right now

According to what exactly? If you're going by those fan made Reddit polls where he tends to rank the highest, he still gets beaten by Banjo. Also him being popular right now doesn't really matter with the DLC likely having been set in stone for months.

>He's one the same as :ultkrool:and:ultridley:when it comes to request

"X got in and Y is about as popular so Y must get in too" Sorry but that's not how things work. Getting into Smash takes more than just popularity. The reptiles had more things going for them besides just that.

>Mii costume splash screen
Why exactly does this mean much of anything?

>Best selling costume so he would sell hotcakes as a fighter

Gonna need some source on that. Also I think those sales would likely come mostly from Geno fans within the Smash community since I don't think the general consumer would want to spend money on a costume of a character they haven't heard of. Mii costume sales =/= Fighter sales. Costumes are for the hardcore fans. A fighter appeals to hardcore fans as well as well as the casuals. Geno would still likely appeal mostly to the former group who's relatively small compared to the amount of people they would want to sell the fighters to.

Wanting Geno is fine but I wouldn't advise giving him, or any third-party for that matter, a 85%. You're just setting yourself up for disappointment with that.
I don't even look at the fan polls but I am seeing from a lot of people requests and the SMRPG community itself it had a big increase compared to smash 4 days

Popularity does play a rule especially for DLC I am sure King k. Rool wouldn't even get a Mii costume without the huge demand that happened during the ballout the demand and votes could cause a character to be considered for future smash titles

It means he is very close to be chosen as a fighter even Sakurai said he fits perfectly in smash so he got this kind of treatment with the splash screen

Not every fighter needs this for example Lucas became DLC even though his game still has yet to be released worldwide so what he has is just hardcore fans

What? I still see his chances are bigger than in the past smash games especially when he is finally in the game in some form and Sakurai considering him twice plus the Amount of request and so far he is the only content from square-enix outside of FF maybe even getting the right to him could be easier than other square-enix characters
 

PapillonXtreme

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I don't even look at the fan polls but I am seeing from a lot of people requests and the SMRPG community itself it had a big increase compared to smash 4 days

Popularity does play a rule especially for DLC I am sure King k. Rool wouldn't even get a Mii costume without the huge demand that happened during the ballout the demand and votes could cause a character to be considered for future smash titles

It means he is very close to be chosen as a fighter even Sakurai said he fits perfectly in smash so he got this kind of treatment with the splash screen

Not every fighter needs this for example Lucas became DLC even though his game still has yet to be released worldwide so what he has is just hardcore fans

What? I still see his chances are bigger than in the past smash games especially when he is finally in the game in some form and Sakurai considering him twice plus the Amount of request and so far he is the only content from square-enix outside of FF maybe even getting the right to him could be easier than other square-enix characters
Except Nintendo planned the DLC, not Sakurai. If it was still him, then I could see him put Geno as DLC first. Besides, he may be popular in the Smash community but outside of that? I don't think so. It's highly unlikely that they would pick Geno over someone like Sora, who would appeal to the fans more than Geno.
 

Cetus

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Jul 5, 2018
Messages
190
Geno

Chance-30%
I only put this here because he was an online token or something and not a spirit. I just feel if they added him in, we'd see his Spirit already. But overall, Squeenix might go for someone else.

Want-50%
Never played SMRPG and I don't really care for Geno, but I want the fanbase to be happy. It'd mean a lot to the community if the one big request finally got in.
 
Joined
Oct 30, 2018
Messages
677
Geno:
Chance:75%: He still makes a ton of sense to include, but his chances have dropped cause he's not on base roster.
Want: 100%: I really want geno.
 

TCT~Phantom

Smash Champion
Joined
Dec 10, 2013
Messages
2,283
NNID
TCT~Phantom
Geno
20% chance
Abstain Want

Simply put, competition. Sora has a solid shot at dlc. Dragon Quest is huge. Geno has fan demand. I feel a SE character is likely for DLC. Geno though? Harder.

Thrall x5

Rate Banjo predict Rayman
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
814
Location
New Jersey
Guh-huh!

Chance: 30%. He only has one hurdle that stops him from being better than that, and that's Steve/Minecraft. It is, however, a massive hurdle. Everything else isn't anything that doesn't hurt anybody else, but Steve is probably going to happen, and I don't see two spots for a Microsoft character in the cards. Porting Banjo's games to Nintendo Switch, though, would probably be a massive boost to his chances in a Wave 2, but for the singular wave we're getting... I don't see it that much. And even if we do get a wave 2, Banjo's not gonna get that port he wants.

Want: 80%. A character I am invested in, and among a special few. While I'm mostly cutting off the branches and abandoning everybody in favor of Arle Nadja, Banjo and Kazooie are among those I will not leave behind and only support when I'm on Cloud 9. I will be very very pleased with them, especially since they tie Paper Mario for my #2 slot. (I just want Arle more than them put together).

Predict: Rayman will have a 60% Chance.

Noms: Arle Nadja x 5. [EDIT: Still Number 1...! I like looking forward to the little victories.]

---

Today is not a x10 day. Everybody, remember to nominate characters!
 
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Cetus

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Jul 5, 2018
Messages
190
Banjoo Kazooie? More like Banjo Kapoopie.

Chance-5%
One word... Steve. If Nintendo's choosing the rep and it's Microsoft rep, Steve would totally take his spot. Especially if Vergeben is to be believed is a lot more likely now than before.

Want-30%
I don't really care much about Banjo tbh. I get he's a nostalgic icon but I never really was invested in him that much. I do however believe him being in Smash would change my mind since I do love the colorful, fun characters being in the game. Unfortunately, I just don't really have much to go off of.

Noms: Bethesda Rep 5x
 
Joined
Sep 1, 2018
Messages
939
Location
Mexico City
3DS FC
3325-3200-4137
Banjo-Kazooie
Chance: 0%-If Nintendo's gonna negotiate any Microsoft character, that's gonna be Steve. The Creeper New 2DS is quite the proof that they're willing to negotiate about Minecraft, while we're left with no sight about Banjo or any of Rare's properties coming to Nintendo.
Want: 0%-Never played their games and never really cared about them either. I just don't find the appeal in their designs. They look like just any other platforming mascot with a simplistic gimmick on them.

Nominations (I should stop forgetting about 'em): Fighter Pass will be all guests x5
 

Sari

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 3, 2014
Messages
2,989
Location
New Jersey
NNID
Villager49
Switch FC
SW-2215-0173-2152
Banjo

Chance: 20%
Banjo is a very highly requested third party rep and Xbox head Phil Spencer (who could probably pull some strings) has been extremely open to adding him into Smash. Unfortunately for Banjo, his chances are greatly lowered due to a certain block head becoming all the more likely as Ultimate's Microsoft rep.

Want: 70%
Banjo is one of those third party characters that would fit into the Smash roster perfectly. I think he is especially deserving of being in Smash especially considering Rare's history with Nintendo.

Rayman chance predictions: 48.41%

Nominations: Kat & Ana x5
 
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
6,064
Alright, today we’re back to 5 noms each.

100-51

Arle Nadja x60
Boss: Kracko x55


50-25

Grovyle x50
Rhythm Girl x45
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x40
Concept: All DLC will be third-party x40
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x35
Nero Claudius (Fate) x35
Kat & Ana x35
Lora (Xenoblade) x30
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x30
Concept: CGI trailers for newcomers (barring Piranha Plant) x30
Concept: More DLC x25
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x25
Reaper (Overwatch) x25
Professor Hector x25
Mach Rider x25
Concept: All DLC will be first-party x20

Under 25

9-Volt x20
Impa x17
Thrall (Warcraft) x15
Frisk x10
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x10
Hollow Knight x10
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x10
Reimu Hakurei x10
Andy (Advance Wars) x10
Creeper x10
Decidueye x5
Blacephalon x5
Hector (Fire Emblem) x5
Papyrus x5
Ninten x5
Lizalfos x3
Toon Zelda x3

Arle Nadja and Kracko as a boss crack the 50 nom mark.

CGI trailers for newcomers, More DLC, Kat & Ana, Lora, No fan favorites, Third-party character from unrepped company, Reaper, Professor Hector, and Mach Rider all leave the under 25 club.

Today’s new nominees are Reimu Hakurei, the concept of an Assist Trophy becoming a Fighter (10 noms each), and Ninten (with 5).

Sigran101 Sigran101 I forgot that Joker is already on the schedule, so nominating him is unnecessary.

waddledeeonredyoshi waddledeeonredyoshi You don’t get to use nominations from a previous day.

————————

Well, it’s rating time.

Burger King

After the first DLC was revealed to be a plant nobody wanted, and the fact that Nintendo’s picked DLC, I expect DLC to be the most tone-deaf, business oriented and generally all around terrible thing possible. And of course, that means the worst possible character besides Goku making it in, and unfortunately for Banjo, it’s his competition, Steve. Vergeben seems to back Steve’s inclusion as well.

Ignoring Steve, I still don’t expect there to be any fan-demanded characters (from baseless pessimism), but as he’s third party I give Banjo the best chance. If it weren’t for that pile of blocks I might even be optimistic.

And then there’s also Master Chief. He could theoretically be in.

Want: 100%

Banjo-Kazooie and Banjo-Tooie are masterpieces, and it’s saddening to see not many people played them. I guess that’s the good thing about endless videogame franchises, the new generations can still get to experience them. Shame that Rare got treated like trash. But anyways, Banjo and Kazooie are gaming icons and Smash is their home. Let them return.

Nominations: Mach Rider x10
 
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Joined
Jun 25, 2014
Messages
1,078
Location
The elegant battlefield.
Yogi and Woody Woodpecker (Banjo and Kazooie)

Chance: 20%
There once was a dream, for a bird and a bear in Smash,
The fans, they yearned for this duo to join the clash.
Melee, then Brawl, finally Smash 4 went by,
Each time their absence left tears in the eye.
With Ultimate, it would seem time for their big break!
But DLC season has one glaring mistake...
Nintendo it appears, sits at the helm,
And now it seems, the spot will go to the Minecraft realm.
So bird and bear are once again left in the dust,
A fate I agree, feels sorely unjust.

Want: 70%
Hope you all enjoyed that thematic chance rating, as it's back to normal for want. So, here's the oddity. I've never played Banjo Kazooie or Banjo Tooie. I would abstain, but for once, my score is positive for a series I haven't played. So what's the deal? Simply put, I find them rather fitting for Smash. The duo are just oozing with Nintendo style, and with Rare also working on DK games, Banjo would almost feel like an extension of the DK universe. I will readily accept this duo with open arms. That said, there is a 3rd Party I'd accept even mor- Oh, they're being rated tomorrow. Alright then...

Rayman - With Rabbid Peach serving as an spirit, Rayman will have a lot easier of a time getting the door fully open, it's open a crack already! 46%

Nominations: Professor Hector X5
 
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PK-remling Fire

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Sep 22, 2018
Messages
231
Banjo Kazooie:

Chance: 15%
As much as I hate to say it, Banjo's chances are pretty slim, with the Microsoft rep likely being Steve and all.

Want: 100%
Banjo Kazooie was one of my first games ever and it would be a dream come true to see them in Smash Ultimate. They'd fit right in with the other Nintendo characters and would make for the perfect N64 rep, as Kazooie and Tooie are no less than gems. They also have great moveset potential and just radiate charm.

Noms: Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x5
 
Joined
Jul 29, 2014
Messages
898
Location
Duwang
Switch FC
SW 6027 0894 6117
Banjo
Chance: 15%
It's sadly looking more like Steve from Minycrafta will take away his spot. Banjo's chances are going to depend on wether Nintendo and Sakurai value their hardcore fans over that sweet dough. If the ballot gets looked at again it's not impossible for Nintendo to let Sakurai choose from both Banjo and Steve. From there it could go eitherway.


Want: 55%
Again, I haven't played any of their games. Yet I do think they deserve it. Also I want the Steveposting to stop.

Rayman: 42.47%

CGI trailers x5
waddledeeonredyoshi waddledeeonredyoshi You don’t get to use nominations from a previous day.
Okay, guess I'll permanently be 5 noms behind everyone else for the sake of not breaking ''the rulse'' even though what I did didn't make me use more noms in total than I was supposed to.
 

Artix

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jul 9, 2018
Messages
254
Banjo & Kazooie

Chance: 15%
Banjo & Kazooie really stand no chance here as DLC, because of one thing: Steve. With Nintendo planning the DLC, they'll most likely pick Steve from Minecraft over Banjo & Kazooie due to being more popular. The only thing these two has going for is it's decent spot in the ballot, but even then, I really don't think they would look at the ballot just to pick some characters for DLC.

Want: 95%
Even though their chances are quite slim, I really wish Banjo would made it in instead of Steve. I'm a longtime fan of Banjo-Kazooie and I really loved the character. But with Nintendo planning the DLC, I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon.

Nominations:
Nero Claudius (Fate) x5
 

UtopianPoyzin

Smash Champion
Joined
Sep 10, 2018
Messages
2,964
Location
Uhhhhhh
Switch FC
SW 1975-0838-2970
Aaaaaaand I missed Genos's day.

Banjo is my number 2 wanted, but everybody seems to support him, and I'm lazy. Anything I would want to say already has been. So I'm abstaining.

Noms: Impa x5
 
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Joined
May 7, 2018
Messages
938
Location
United Kingdom
Switch FC
SW 5950 1333 3717
Banjo and Kazooie:

Chance - 20%

Yea I know they are in my predictions on my signature but I'm having second thoughts. The N64 Classic was something I was certain of along with the Phil Spencer comments but now I'm not as sure due to Reggie's interview but in all honesty it might not mean much. Microsoft and Nintendo have been friendly lately and this could definitley be something that would make a lot of money. It is all up in the air right now but I don't feel confident rating this pair higher.

Want - Abstain

I have literally no opinion on these two.

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x5
 
Joined
Aug 24, 2018
Messages
1,095
Location
Wyndon
Switch FC
SW 0818-9732-6979
Mermaid Man: BONGO!
Barnacle Boy: It's BANJO!
Mermaid Man: HANDS OFF ME WOMAN!

Chance: 50%
Want: 100%
(Like if you can guess the episode this reference is from)

Banjo is one of those characters that feels like the most obvious inclusions ever. He fits right into Smash with the rest of the roster, has an easy moveset to pull from, was a classic on the Nintendo 64, massively requested, and despite being owned by Microsoft, Phil Spencer himself actually wants him to be included for DLC. The main, HUGE PROBLEM is that he has direct competition with a widely hated/controversial character: Steve from Minecraft. He was viewed as a meme suggestion back in Smash 4, along the lines of Goku and Shrek. I know a lot of people who really hate Steve, but love Banjo, including a good friend of mine who's relying on Banjo joining to buy the game. He also said if Steve makes it in, he's not buying Smash Ultimate. Sadly though, leakers like Vergayben and Hitagay are saying Steve is getting in and expect everyone to treat them like gospel. It's one or the other at this point, but unless they add both in, it's most likely gonna be Steve. This is not gonna stop me from supporting him however, and Banjo is my 3rd most wanted newcomer. And the one with the highest chance, considering Xurkitree and Reaper are pipe dream characters. Crash also has a shot, but it's less likely than Banjo.

Rayman prediction: 60%

Nominations: Reaper x5
 
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Joined
Jul 21, 2013
Messages
1,046
Location
USA
3DS FC
0877-3649-6314
Switch FC
SW-7628-2111-0913
Banjo & Kazooie

Chance: 10%

Would have been higher if Nintendo wasn't suggesting the characters. It's similar to Geno, really: I now actually do think that there will be a Microsoft character after my pessimism base game, but I'm not going to be biased here, they'll want Steve. Again, they have hardcore popularity, and the two N64 games did well, but they're just not relevant enough for a lot of newer fans to know or care about them. Best bet is probably for Nintendo to decide to include both them and Steve, but that doesn't seem likely. Not looking good for the bear and bird right now, but at least if Steve gets in the might open the door for the future.

Want: 100%

Most wanted character by far. Nintendo 64 was my first console and Kazooie and Tooie are among my most played games for the system, with Tooie remaining my favorite. I love just about everything about the games, including of course the main stars. They still feel like Nintendo's characters, so for me they belong in Smash. Not going to pretend they're likely, but if they end up happening I'm using them immediately.
 
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