Considering that the roster still actually grew between Melee and Brawl, (though not as much as we had hoped) it's pretty reasonable to assume that a growing franchise would get at least the same number of reps as they had in melee. That being said, Marth is the most likely character to grab that spot. You could just put him on the list as highly likely or something.
To be fair, I think Fire Emblem getting Roy as a second rep in Melee was an act of grace rather than a reflection of its importance. Even then, Fire Emblem wass a great with a long and rich history - but did it really deserve two characters when series like Metroid and Donkey Kong were left out to try. I would argue not. I suspect Roy was included because Marth's moveset lent itself well to a clone.
In my view, two FE reps would be perfect - regardless of whom it is. But surely you will conceed that if the roster is small enough, Ike could be solo. suppose the roster is 35 characters. Or thirty. Surely you admit that there are scenarios where this could happen. To me, 35-36 characters means Ike is solo. Any more Nintendo characters, and a second FE character is all but guaranteed. You may feel free to disagree.
First of all, Takamaru is nowhere near as popular as Marth. Replacing Marth with him would be like Sakurai sticking a Giant Middle Finger at us. That poll was taken exclusively for new character additions, and pays no attention to returning vetrans at all. It's obvious that Takamaru would be higher than Marth on that poll, simply because he wasn't allowed on it in the first place. That is by no means grounds to say that Takamaru is anywhere near as popular as Marth. This is honestly one of the worst anti-Marth arguements out there, simply because Marth would clearly take priority over him and would actually keep Takamaru out of the game if anything, not the other way around.
I agree that Marth is clearly the more popular. But popularity, while important, isn't everything.
With Ike in, Marth no longer has the weight of an entire franchise on his shoulders, while Takamaru would give representation to one of the loved forgotten series on yesteryear. Also, and a Saumerai, he he brings a much more unique pressense to the roster.
I see that Isaac now has a permanent position on the roster. I'm glad you finally came to your senses, not to mention the removal of the AC character and the talking head.
One slight issue is that it is rumored (I don't recall ever actually seeing the quote) that Sakurai said that he wants to limit the amount of Japan-only characters. He already replaced Ness with Lucas, so I'm not sure that he would add both Claus and Takamaru. Also, I'm hesitant about the inclusion of Geno. I wouldn't be surprised if Marth and Falco appeared instead of Takamaru and Geno.
The limting of Japn-onlies is a good point - but Mother 3 aside, I think including Takamu isn't going overboard. But yeah, I wouldn't be particularily surprised by a Marth/Falco return either.
Only one Fire Emblem rep? Thats complete bull. Just the series' popularity in Japan alone was enough to get it two reps in Melee. For it to drop to one in Brawl after it has become an international franchise with moderate popularity outside of Japan is utterly unthinkable. Worst-case scenario is it gets stuck with only two again, and I'd argue that its quite probable for it to get three unless the roster is stuck in the mid-30s range total.
Your claim that Takamaru could impact Marth's return at all is equally foolish. They're completely different characters from completely different series. The only similarity is that they use a sword - and even then, the swords they use are different, Marth wielding the European-style long sword Falchion and Takamaru having a Japanese Katana. And please, don't even start with the claim that Takamaru being agile matters - theres no reason whatsoever Sakurai and co couldn't differentiate the two, especially considering we've already seen such done with Ike, who by his abilities in his own games should have been just a little slower and stronger than Marth, not a titan who is slower and stronger than Bowser the way he turned out.
Really, it seems like you tailored that flimsy argument just because you just don't wish to admit that Marth is almost surely back. Thats disappointing, considering you otherwise seem to be quite reasonable.
Zevox
I already touched on the "one fire Emblem character" so I'll adress your second complaint: there being no reason why Sakurai couldn't differentiate between Marth and Takamaru.
At the root of the issue is the relationship between Ike's moveset and Marth. Obviously, Ike plays nothing like Marth in Melee - but things like his counter and his forward smash suggest to me that a DNA test would confirm that Marth was used as a template in his creation, before he was drastically altered. Basically, I'm saying that Ike is to Marth what Lucas is to Ness.
The problem with this, of course, is that (unlike Lucas and Ness) Ike makes a pretty poor Marth replacement. His play-style will likely not appeal to the majority of Marth mains as it shares very little in common with his predecessor.
That's where Takamaru comes if. That's not to say that his attacks would be at all similar to Marth (as you said: one has a
Falchion and the other a Katana) but that he could fill the role of speedy swordfighter with flowy, combo-able attacks. It seems to me that if both of those characters were in Brawl, Marth's moveset wouldn't that essential.
Obviously, Marth's status as the first and most prominet Fire Emblem lord should not be overlooked. This alone could guarantee his a spot irregardless of what they do with Takamaru. But if being one of the original 12 wasn't enough to secure Ness' inclusion then I would argue that Marth is by no means 100% safe.
Does this mean that my theory is the most likely, or only outcome possible? Heck no. It's a highly speculative theory that I'm throwing out there to see what people think. Is this just be being stubborn? Possibly. But then again, things would be pretty boring around here if we all agreed all the time.
Yes, I Am
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But seriously wiseguy i've been looking at this list for the past few months and i must say that you've done quite a good job but i'd say at least 2 FE Reps is worthy on the main roster if you ask me, And 3 SF Reps? And geno goes under the third-party section? I Liked the ACer...But YAY KAWASHIMA IS OFF.
If i had some changes to the list i would personally myself do this, However you've done a good job with it;
1.Put falco on (Can't remember if you had him on.)
2.Put marth on the main list and have michiah on the other one.
3.Put the ACer back on
4.Put geno in the mario catigory
5.Have sukapon and takamaru share a spot.
6.Take out midna and BJ Altogether...Hmm actually falco and ACer replacing midna and BJ Is my kind of cup of tea :D :D :D.
However nice work seriously, Most of it's pretty much correct (Not all but most.) So good job, It makes me want to start my own probability thread
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Oh and thanks for including claus!
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Forgot this but at the part were it was on diddy's profile about the "I'm not leaving you" I Lol'd hard at that :D.
Glad you enjoyed my list.
Thanks for the suggestions, koopa. The characters you suggested are all probable choices - but including them would mean removing other characters (my either/or choices before were kind of a cop out). I think I'll stick with these, and let the cards fall where they may.
As for Geno, does it really matter how you classify him? Depending on your perspective, he is either a Mario, retro or thrid party character.
I would totally encorage you to make your own prediction list, if you feel so inclined.
Why is this the final version again? Also:
I dunno, but I'll tell what isn't the reason: to create a shamelss promotional stunt that will get people to re-read my thread. Yep.
>_>
<_<
You know what? YOU SUCK! In addition, I didn't like Metroid Prime that much.
Also, the other comments are funny!
In retrospect, that like was in pretty poor taste.
I've edited it out, and I apologize if it caused offense. Sorry.
Still, I find it distressing when my favorite non-Smash series is rejected in Nintendo's homeland.
You kept Geno, so you get to live.
I kid, naturally. >_>
Seriously, Marth? What do you have against him?
If the presence of Sheik on this list says anything, its that I won't deny a character a spot on my list based solely on the fact that I hate them.
Also, I don't hate Marth. Not since I learned that he will star in my most anticipated DS game: Fire Emblem DS!
Completely agree with this post. Saying Takamaru will replace Marth is the most random no-basis thing I've ever heard in my life.
Have you visited the Ashley thread recently?
And how the hell will a series go down in representatives in a game that has a bigger roster?
I would say this list is terrible but your inclusion of Isaac and removal of the ******** AC character gave you some points. I also agree with your stance on pointless generic villains like k.rool and black shadow.
So overall the list is pretty good.
Well, a bigger roster this time doesn't really make the competition any less fierce. Roy squeaked by conteneders likem Diddy and Wario in the last game, but now the outcry for their inclusion is stronger than ever. Plus, you've got new series like Pikmin and 3rd party reps like Sonic.[/QUOTE]
Would you like me to rant on why the idea of reps fails AGAIN?
Please do.
It's been a while since you unleashed one of your rants. (You can wait until after you finish your project, naturally.)
First off Black Shadow has competition for the villain spot so don't say it's defenitley him (although I will admit he is very likely) and second, Just because you say he is generic does not affect his chances at all. Link has a generic silent hero personality and he is confirmed. Third I do not say that F-Zero is getting a villain just to add rep. I say F-Zero is getting a villain because villains will be neccesary in this game for subspace.
It's not just that I say he's generic. It's that NOBODY likes him. In my time on Smashboards, people either hate the character or don't care about him either way.
There's a reason there is no Black Shadow fanclub: he sucks utterly.
As for subspace, its more likely that he'll be a boss without being playable.
Dude, if one of my favorite series got 6 playable movesets I wouldn't be complaining. Just sayin.