I think Glyph would be a legitimate lynch target today. Glyph's completely given up, which is of no use to town. That said, perhaps a Vigilante / Serial Killer target should be myself, since I'm also near that point--life is too discombobulating, but I'll keep trying. Yes, Glyph and Zen are both orange simply because that's the sort of player I am--weak and unbalanced. If Glyph is town, I dunno who would be a prime Vigilante target. If Glyph is Mafia, Vigilante should shoot myself to help clear some of this suspicion so others can focus on "subtargets" like Zen and Asdioh.
Admittedly this sounds pretty town, especially if Glyph flips scum. Why would scum Tery offer himself to be vigged if he would know Glyph will flip mafia? :-/ But Zen has been pushing a Glyph lynch all Day so idk between the two who is more likely scum on a Glyph scum flip. I will address my thoughts for if Glyph flips town in a sec.
I personally feel Gova is more likely to be the Vig than SK... like, 75% chance. His play has seemed townie. I also feel that figuring out if he's SK is pointless, as mafia will probably target him sooner or later, thus clearing up the wifom for all of us, or we lynch 3 mafia and the game continues, at which point it becomes obvious he's the SK.
I think Joey's shot on J on D1 was crappy, but it might end up helping us because Siblings dying lategame could have suddenly lost us the game.
I agree that at this point Gova seems willing to help town and is likely vig, figuring out if he is vig or sk is not the biggest of our worries.
I feel that Tery is pretty obviously town at this point. He's been pretty consistent, he doesn't really care if he dies, Roxy is confirmed scum and he wanted him dead, ES is confirmed town and he defended him. He also wants Glyph gone, but not as strongly as he wanted Roxy gone, and he wants Zen gone, who is pretty damn scummy sometimes but I can't figure out if he's really scum or not.
I agree that Tery has had some town posts, like his last posts, but I wouldn't say he is obvtown. Glyph/Tery connections were pretty limited and without his last post Tery wasn't very strong in his read on Glyph. Saying he would like to be vigged if Glyph flips scum is confusing, and seems like something dumb to say as scum unless Glyph also isn't scum or it's a risky gambit. I'm fine with a Zen vig over Tery if Glyph flips scum, but Tery still isn't obvtown.
For the record, my current suspicions are on Glyph and Zen the most. It's unbelievably hard to get a solid read on someone who simply won't play (Glyph), and it will be extremely frustrating if we don't lynch him and he turns out to be scum, or if we do lynch him and he turns out to be town. Right now I'm thinking townGlyph is very likely simply because of how little he seems to care and also because nobody really seems to care to defend him.
How likely is very likely? Is it more likely Glyph will flip town than any other player here, like Zen or Tery? I think Zen or Tery could be scum but I think that Glyph is the most likely person out of everyone to flip scum. That's why I'm willing to
Vote: Glyph
as the lynch toDay.
If Glyph flips scum, I will consider Asdioh town pretty strongly. He's been on top of Glyph from much earlier, before his inactivity made him the obvious choice.
Now... if Glyph flips town... these are Asdioh's posts 686, 825, 827, and 1049:
I'm also going to post my notes on Roxy pre-1049
565 - says he’s okay with es; only problem with es is when he votes asdioh for a dumb reason; wants to know if anyone ignored the fact that smargaret was upset; thinks gheb is okay
572 - confronts jtb’s case on j
810 - asks gheb why it is anti-town to make pseudoclears; no scumreads
That is all Roxy had done up to that point.
Why is his inactive lynch order Glyph, Tery, JTB, Zen, Roxy? Why is Glyph before Roxy with three people between them? Why does he state a solid "Glyph before Roxy"? 1049 is posted after Glyph requested replacement, and before he decided to replace back in. No consideration towards a replacement being more active.
After that is more pressure on Glyph, but except for being fairly certain that Glyph is scum to saying he could be apathetic town, there's nothing all that strange in the posts after.
If Glyph flips town, I'm pretty sure I want an Asdioh lynch.
I think this stance on Asdioh is legitimate, and if Glyph flips town then I can understand putting Asdioh back into your scum pool and I would have to evaluate my reads at well. A Glyph town flip does look really bad for Asdioh considering these posts, and vig shot would have to be on one of Zen/Tery/Asdioh.
Basically I'm having a hard time figuring out how my reads would change if Glyph flips town because it seems really unlikely, but my suspicions of both Zen/Tery would stay in tact and Asdioh scum would look a lot more likely.
hmm... your logic makes too much sense.
How's this for a deal:
-if Glyph flips scum, I receive an unconditional doc protect from whoever the doctor is.
-if Glyph flips town, I am lynched tomorrow (would prefer not to be vigged :/)
I want to talk about the doc protect but I don't think right now is the right time to do it.
ummm... trying to think on that one. I was thinking No Vig might be a good idea if Glyph flips town, what do you think?
As for the vig shot, in the worst case scenario Glyph flips town, Gova shoots town and mafia gets a nk. That brings us down to 3 v. 2. If Glyph flips town, Gova doesn't shoot and mafia gets a nk, then its down to 4 v. 2. In either situation I think we either lynch correctly or lose (can't remember the difference between MYLO and LYLO but I think that would make it LYLO) so the vig shot really wouldn't hurt us unless we bank on the the mafia not killing toNight which I don't think is a good idea.
Asdioh, if you are really worried about claiming before dying then I would be fine with a Zen vig shot if Glyph flips town and he has already claimed. I usually worry about people trying to avoid lynching/vigging but in this case, if Zen is vigged and neither him and Glyph are scum, then I'm going to be pretty sure that scum is Asdioh/Tery so you wouldn't get out of a lynch toMorrow anyway.
Usually, when July is viewing for a long time, it means she's writing up a big post.
:D?
Pretty interested in hearing what she has to say too lol.
Hope this isn't distracting you too much from your finals, July >_<
Haha well kind of, this is a kind of long post and I am kind of distracted but mostly its been a while because I am posting and studying at the same time :D