My changes to fino's. I'm only going to discuss the matchups that I'm familiar with and have played in tourney frequently.
Luigi becomes 55-45 Luigi's favour.
I've played our best luigi numerous times and in numerous money matches (some as high as 10 dollars). He knows the matchup pretty well, and I've found that proper use of Olimar's jab keeps this matchup from being rediculously hard. I've felt the same thing against toon link.
MK becomes 60-40 MK favour.
This is a hard one to come up with a relatively accurate and consistent number for. I've taken our best player (seibrik) to game 3 in tournament, and in "serious friendlies" I've taken redhalberd (recently just won a tournament beating HRNut and Seibrik in the same tournament) to game 5. I play against HRNut's MK a lot and he usually beats me. He takes full advantage of Olimar's limited options and knows the character so well he won't fall for any tricks (tether to immediatly forward air, nair coming from getting hit upwards etc). So, since I've taken our best MK's to their last game but usually lose to one who knows the matchup very well, without discrediting the fact that he is our second best player, I'm sitting at 60-40 currently. There is still much to learn about spacing this match.
IC becomes 60-40 IC favour.
Recently FL has sprung up a lot of IC players. To name a few Snipa (who got 4th at the last SFL monthly) and X Factor (CFL's best). I've played a few money matches with both and have played X Factor in tournament. After quite a bit of battling IC's, the matchup is still a headache every time. When the situation arises that you are standing right next to them, the RPS-type set of options that both characters have leaves Olimar in a situation where if he guesses wrong, or the IC guesses right, Olimar loses his stock at any percent. This alone, on top of the desynch blizzard approach and overall high priority, leaves me to believe this is a more accurate number.
Diddy becomes 60-40 diddy favour
Pikachu becomes 60-40 olimar favour
Kirby becomes 60-40 olimar favour
I've played FL's best diddy who's also 5th on the upcoming PR a -LOT-. He knows the Olimar matchup very well from extensive wifi practice. He is very good at limiting my options, and prevents me from harming him with bananas that I steal. I've tried soooooo hard to make this matchup work but I still have more to learn.
One of my closest friends at my college who also practices with me often mains pikachu. We play -all- the time. Olimar can space away from any harm pikachu can cause, and pikachu is easily WAC-able in his gimps. Also yellow pikmin rrrraaapppeeee this fight. If you disagree, next time you're fighting pika try harder to keep track of your yellows, and use them effectively.
I've faught a lot of our kirbies, even ones that know the matchup, and the options seem to balance out at this point in the metagame with a slight favour towards olimar; however, we don't have any amazing Kirby players.
Snake becomes 50-50.
I've played our best snake and 2nd player on the PR very very often in these past 2 months. The matchup we most frequent is Snake VS Olimar. He's a good Olimar player, too, and knows the fight amazingly well. We usually go relatively even, with him winning the majority of the matches. He believes as well as I that the fight is 50-50 for whoever plays smarter wins the fight, it's not broken to any either side.
Ness becomes 50-50.
I played our best ness for about 5 - 7 rounds at the last OOS tournament (Halloween bs tournament).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWuzNARZtTI . Smart Ness' will abuse Olimar's lack of priority. Later on in fighting him, I've learned that once again Olimar's jab and high priority nair and tilts keep the matchup about even.
Ike becomes 55-45 Olimar favour.
If I could put the next statement in capital letters I would. -DO NOT-, I repeat, -DO NOT- underestimate Ike. Our best Ike usually gets 5th - 7th at our largest monthly tournaments, basically, he's legit. I've fought him only twice in tournament and it was about 5-7 months ago. He beat me both times. If Ike abuses Olimar's priority problem, and spaces near the edge with intellegence, the fight has potential to be a headache for Olimar. Last saturday, I beat him in a moneymatch, but it was very close.
why did I just post all that lol. feel free to debate \ discuss
vids of me vs hrnut are coming soon.