Wario is even, and arguably even slightly our favor. Thing there is that he has speed and options that actually work, plus can actually avoid the grab, that's why it's not wreckage.
Fsmash is hella strong, it'll kill that early on the second lightest character in the game.
Oh no, water gun resets the field, whoopie.
And yoshi is a lot harder to juggle than you think Remember, he's the fastest in the air, has super armor on DJ, has 6 jumps, and has a quick approach to the ground with down b that sweetspots the ledge. Unlike squirtle who's pretty easy to juggle. And your tilts dont have enough range if we play it right.
I think the idea of Wario having a disadvantage against Yoshi is laughable. He jumps circles around you, you're not really allowed to shield, you're fairly easy to edgeguard, and Bite does a number on most of Yoshi's attacks when used right. You can't beat Wario in the air just because he's able to avoid most of Yoshi's air attacks with ease, whereas Wario's air speed allows him to poke rather well. It's at least 55-45 Wario, if not worse for Yoshi.
F-Smash really isn't that strong. Good move, for sure, but it's not -that- powerful. I am quite sure about this.
As far as Water Gun goes, Yoshi's not-awesome horizontal acceleration means that you're not allowed to just spam aerials. N-Air takes a ton of hitlag from the water and gets F-Air'd, for instance. The thing about Water Gun is, it just prevents a person from moving if the opponent is holding toward it from the air or running toward it on the ground, but if the opponent is not moving at all (say, while using a projectile or grabbing, you get pushed hard and fast. The ledge isn't Yoshi's favorite place to be, and if you like using your eggs on stage, it's not hard to get you there.
Super armor is eaten by D-Air, and Yoshi doesn't have a way to trade with Squirtle's U-Air. Water Gun breaks eggs and allows Squirtle to approach from the air while Yoshi throws eggs, which severely limits the ways that Yoshi can recover. Recovering against Squirtle will be harder than you seem to think.
Juggling Squirtle is difficult for some characters; Squirtle can B-Reverse Water Gun with his excellent horizontal aerial mobility while still being able to move in another direction if I want.
Also, I'm guessing you've never actually fought against a F-Tilt-spamming Squirtle, but it's a really, really stupid move. If you see it coming from a mile away, you can use the opportunity to running grab me, but if I'm baiting with it, or, better yet, just spotdodge or roll away, F-Tilt's not going to get punished much.
Basically what I read here is that the first stock makes or breaksthe match the majority of the time.
If squirtle dies first, the other 2 pokemon are liable to get destroyed depending on matchup. and than your anywhere from 1 to 2 stocks down which is almost a death sentance in this game.
If squirtle kills first, he can take a large chunk of the opponents next stock with the whole diddy property of none of his moves having any real knockback, thus making them easy to chain. And than add to that the fact that as soon as squirtle DOES die, you can pretty much immediately throw him right back in there since most of his stam is back.
Do I have this right?
That sounds about right. The first stock is very important for setting the pace of the match, probably moreso than any other character.
Reflex, How does water gun affect yoshi bomb to the ledge?
If there's a decent amount of space between where Water Gun hits and the ledge (The bottom Battlefield platforms? Maybe a little higher), Yoshi is pushed enough to screw him.