Shiek vs Pacman is interesting, and revolves around fruit.
PacMan's Cherry and Strawberry eat up all of Shiek's needles, and lay a good trap to prevent dash-in attempts. PacMan can simply throw out Cherries and Strawberries as a camp-strategy, forcing Shiek to approach PacMan without aid of projectiles. Granted, Shiek's approach game is superb, but PacMan's got one of the few SH Fairs that goes approximately even with Shiek's Fair / Nair. Furthermore, frame-6 partial-invincibility on Pac-Man's UTilt can punish many aerial approaches safely from the ground. PacMan easily beats Shiek's SH Fair approach with multiple options, even without a throw. (note: PacMan's extremely slow 12-frame throw is amongst the slowest grabs in the game. Its a terrible OOS option). OOS, PacMan is looking at Nair for punishes.
Mid-tier fruit, like Orange and Melon, shutdown Shiek's needles and give Pacman some room to approach. Grounded approach options are made more difficult: Shiek has to go all-in and "catch" the fruit while simultaneously using Dash-attack to get in vs PacMan for a ground approach. Pacman could shield instead and FTilt Shiek back into the neutral game.
At this point, I've noticed that Shiek players start to use safer Short-hop approaches in response to Orange and Melon... which was covered earlier. Hope is not all lost for Shiek however... as PacMan really can't approach her safely either.
PacMan's safest approach is probably dashing from behind Melon. But entering the dash state removes a ton of options for PacMan. I'm thinking that maybe if I learn to Perfect-Pivot out of PacMan's FoxTrot, I'll do better, but as it stands, dashing behind Melon removes PacMan's Up-tilt option to beat Shiek's SHs Fairs. Shiek also has the "all-in" options with Grenade and Bouncing Fish... which go well against the Melon. But a quick Shield -> Sidestep vs Fish... or a whiffed Grenade is all Pacman needs to punish Shiek. Its a risky game here.
Both characters have a 3-frame Nair that is used to screw up your opponent's pseudo-combo game. A messed up combo from either player gets punished with quick "get off me" Nairs that PacMan and Shiek have extremely easy access to. PacMan's Hydrant gives him an emergency escape option, but I've noticed that high-level Shiek players know how to deal with it already.
I'll describe Hydrant as a wildcard that coerces a mistake from the Shiek player. Nothing guaranteed, and certainly punishable if the Shiek predicts it. But the mental-pressure it exerts can give PacMan much needed breathing room to reset the game back to neutral.
Eventually, Shiek players learn to stop SH Approaches vs PacMan in the neutral game. And when both players play a strong ground game, it becomes a slower, campier patience game where both sides are fishing for a mistake. I'm inclined to believe Shiek has the slight advantage here, as PacMan's strong KO options are slower and unsafe and telegraphed. (Erm... more-so than Shiek's Bouncing Fish and Vanish anyway).
Damage will regularly get to 160%+, and then Shiek or PacMan will rely on Bair to kill.
Unless an opponent gets a "hard read" on the other guy and can land one of the earlier kill moves. Pacman can reliably KO Shiek around 100% with a hard-read with FSmash. Shiek might make a mistake and get KOed from Hydrant, but I rarely see Hydrant actually KO high-level opponents. Going for the Bell KO or Key KO might help, but PacMan loses out on Cherry, Strawberry, Orange, and Melon pressure... giving Shiek the opportunity to needle PacMan all day.
Similarly, Shiek might get a good read with a surprise Vanish or BF... but I'm gonna bet that the typical kill will be from a safe Bair.
Within "footsie" distance, where fruit can be punished by the Shiek user... it seems like PacMan's FTilt can space Shiek's ground approach safely and effectively. Converting PacMan's FTilt hit into a reliable kill however remains a mystery for me. Sheik's needles become much more useful at this distance as well, but is punished by PacMan's SH->Nair.
I'm thinking 5.5 - 4.5, Shiek's favor vs Pacman... and certainly the game's "momentum" is a very large factor.
