Whoops, got busy today and forgot to check back on the thread. Apologies to those that have probably been awaiting a response for a while (like I was earlier).
Right here. Apologies for not responding sooner here.
Alright, I think I've laid out my prediction for the next game as of today. I only got two responses for what I had asked of you guys, but that's alright. I actually ended up having to go a bit over the base total that both respondees gave me, only because it was extremely tough to justifiably remove characters after a certain threshold, and my total for base game veterans ended up hovering around the character count SSB4 had post-DLC, which I feel is an acceptable benchmark veteran-wise for Smash installments going forward. Without further ado, here's the lists of veterans, newcomers, and echoes that I have laid out for my prediction for the next Smash installment.
Base game veterans
(56 characters):
As a side note before I continue, I tend to not factor in the Mii Fighters in my predictions currently, as the jury's out on whether they'd still be important at all for the next system. Though I may go back and add them in, assuming backwards compatability is on the table for the next system.
Base game newcomers
(12 characters):
Echo fighters
(7 characters):
Now here's where things get tricky/interesting; the subject of DLC. My prediction is that there will be two types of DLC releases concerning characters: Challenger Packs, which are essentially like the ones in Ultimate, and individual characters, which are cheaper and handled more like some of the DLC releases in 4. This system is all going off the assumption that this next game will put a larger emphasis on post-launch content compared to past titles (I personally predict at least three Fighter's Passes worth of brand new characters at minimum.)
This system is mainly to address the unique situation of veterans returning as DLC. The latter category would specifically be targeted towards Nintendo's missing characters that miss the boat, but a few special cases would be in the former category for reasons that should be apparent when I list them off.
Characters that'd be sold as singular downloads
(10 characters):
Challenger Packs (ordered by how confident I am of them out of everyone I've listed)
Feel free to give thoughts and feedback on my predictions here. I'm happy to explain my choices and decisions in as much detail as I can, if any of you wish to inquire. (also I may have made a goof up or two when posting this because this is a lot to double check so forgive me if any glaring oversights are present)
It's a fairly agreeable list, some characters I would miss are counteracted by the promise of adding them later as DLC. You mapped out a lot of DLC, I'm not sure we would see that much but I would at least hope certain veterans that miss the cut have that cushion so long as it doesn't interfere too heavily with the main course. Also regarding Miis, they will 100% be in the next game. I'm certain the system will accommodate them on behalf of backwards compatibility and Mii Costumes have been an efficient way for Nintendo to expand Smash's crossover potential further than would have been feasible otherwise. The Miis have become an economy all their own within Smash, cutting them is sacrificing dozens of new connections and millions of potential dollars.
I feel the push for a longer and more filled DLC cycle would be the only one that I could see making sense from a business standpoint. The DLC cycle last game was one that I felt helped Nintendo a lot in terms of publicity, particularly surrounding their Nintendo Directs (and Digital Events). While Smash obviously isn't the ultimate metric on whether a Direct is well-recieved (the one we had this month was considered amazing even though Ultimate has been long finished), it'd also be foolish to deny that Smash brings a lot of extra engagement for these events. And with the overall success of Mario Kart 8 DX's Booster Course Pack in spite of it happening years after the game's release, I can see Nintendo finding a lot of merit in having Smash's post-launch cycle extend much longer this time around, especially if part of the intent is to ensure most characters are not left behind in the end.
Of course, if I wanted an ideal next Smash, I would just have given the base game a much longer development cycle to ensure less cuts happen to begin with, but I am trying to keep things relatively in check here.
Fair enough on the Mii Fighters as well. I don't think they would eat up too much development assuming their system remains more-or-less unchanged from Ultimate.
This might be an unexpected criticism, but the least defensible cut is Wii Fit Trainer. I understand Ring Fit Trainee is being added, but otherwise you made a point to bring back every single Nintendo series aside from Wii Fit. That just strikes me as a bit odd. If your Ice Climbers, ROB, Duck Hunt etc can still squeeze in there I don't see why Wii Fit Trainer should be the one single loose end. She and RFT wouldn't fight a whole lot like one another anyway. Robin getting snubbed is a bit arguable as well but I get why you did it, it's not impossible that they get cut but I usually value their distinct gameplay function among the pack.
The only reason I replaced Wii Fit with Ring Fit was actually because I felt Ring Fit
is part of the same series, so to speak. I can very much picture the series being renamed just to the "Fit" series, and I do apologize that I didn't make that idea clearer initially.
Robin was a very hard choice when it came to squeezing the base game number down, but it doesn't look like Three Houses will back down from its spot within the FE fandom anytime soon. Keeping Lucina as an Echo was primarily to cushion the blow a little and so that Awakening's significance as the series' revival wasn't completely tossed aside.
Newcomer lineup is okay. I won't spend too much time saying I think x and y are totally gonna happen or totally not gonna happen, but my kneejerk suggestions would be that I'd have vouched Chun-Li over Zero, and that a new Animal Crossing character is worth adding and strongly likely. I appreciate the addition of Rhyhtm Heaven, but as a diehard fan and supporter I'm truly not holding my breath.
My main reasons for peddling Zero over Chun-Li are twofold. The first reason is because Zero would essentially bring a new series in spinoff clothing to Smash. Even though Mega Man X is a very notable series in Capcom circles (and to some people, even more recognizable than Classic Mega Man), it only has the bare minimum in Ultimate, and had practically nothing besides X's cameos in SSB4. While one could argue Chun-Li could bring in more modern Street Fighter content, I can see the greater value in what fuller MMX representation can bring to the table.
The second reason is a bit more blunt, but it's something I feel is important; Zero being an Assist Trophy already in Ultimate, and one of the very fighter-like Assists, at that. You can probably tell that "Assist Trophy promotions" is a soft theme across my base game newcomers, and that's mainly because (especially in the case of Ultimate making a lot of Assists more fighter-like) I feel the current Assist lineup has a good pool of characters that A: are already a ways there in terms of being turned into a full fighter, and B: would bring a lot of positive attention to the series if they're turned into a fighter. Not to say that this is decisive, but I would not deny that Zero very much has a head start over Chun-Li from a development perspective.
and of course the devs LOVE swordfighter movesets too
I feel very stubborn about considering a third Animal Crossing character. It's a big series, yes, but something doesn't sit right about a potential third Villager running around; compared to the Marth or Fox archetype, I feel that turning Villager into a complete character archetype would fly in the face of what made the Villager an interesting inclusion in the first place, being a non-fighter whose tools and objects are refitted for a fighting game context. I gave Isabelle a pass primarily because she is overwhelmingly popular, but I think any more beyond her would run the risk of making the once-unique Villager feel...ordinary. It'd be like if I took Mr. Game & Watch's concept and added a "Mr. Famicom" and "Mr. Arcade" alongside him. Sure, the latter two would have great potential for unique toolsets, but now Mr. Game & Watch doesn't feel really all that special any more.
I may be a bit optimistic with Rhythm Heaven, but compared to most other "dead" Nintendo series, I'd say it has more going in its favor than most. The series still has an active community, it lasted quite longer than most other dormant Nintendo series, and while 2015 was 9 years ago(!), that's still decently more recent than a fair amount of other dormant Nintendo series, as well. And of course, there was also the inferred previous attempt at including a character in Smash (I feel that EiH is why it didn't happen in Ultimate, either). But I also won't leave out the opportunity that I am wrong.
Having a look, I think it’s definitely too dependent on third parties. 14 out of 68 in the base game is… a choice.
This subject is certainly going to be a point of debate for a lot of people, but personally, as long as Smash continues to have traditional sequels, third party characters are going to be essential to the experience, particularly as the first-party well continues to slowly dry. Besides most of the companies seeming to have healthy relationships with Nintendo from a Smash front, any absences from the guest side of things are naturally going to be felt more than, say, the removal of a Pokemon or Fire Emblem character from the game. I did try to be fair with the three (remember the Echoes) characters I put in as base-game newcomers; two are extensions to already-repped series, and the third is a character already present in the last game in non-playable capacities, owned by a company that already has other IPs in Smash, and one with exceptional demand at that.
And I think Pokémon is slightly undersold here. It could do with an extra veteran, likely Charizard.
I was
strongly considering Charizard in base, but Mewtwo won out solely on the fact that Charizard being alone in Smash 4 to begin with was primarily because of technical issues, and I feel that it wouldn't be fair if the Pokemon Trainer was once again shafted for reasons less justifiable this time around. Pichu and Incineroar were the only ones I could easily cut. Lucario is still very popular (otherwise I would've probably snubbed him for Charizard), Greninja is also still very popular (and will likely have Legends Z-A on his side as well), and Jigglypuff always manages to squeeze its way back in one way or another (and also Scream Tail is a thing).
And I don’t see Mio functioning well as a Noah echo. Like, N is right there.
I'll be humble and admit I've never studied Xeno 3 in depth, pretty much the only thing that stuck out in what I remember hearing about the game is that Noah and Mio could use each others' main weapons freely. That, and I didn't want to have any further third-party Echoes added beyond Shadow here. So yeah, if Mio as an Echo is a terrible idea, then please forgive me for being pretty blind to the Xeno series here.
