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Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

dream1ng

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Halo fans and Doom fans pretending to be fine with each other until only one of them gets into smash 6:
There's gonna be a lot of
SamePicMeme.jpg


Except non-ironically

There's also gonna be Crash, whether we'll actually get Banjo and/or Steve back, and any number of dark horses, like Dovahkiin (who we don't talk about much but also has a fairly compelling resume).

So yeah... fun times ahead...
 

Ivander

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Halo fans and Doom fans pretending to be fine with each other until only one of them gets into smash 6:
They'll stop pretending and will be fine with each other when neither gets in and Crash Bandicoot does. :4pacman:

Geez, still can't believe we live in a time period where Doomguy, Dragonborn, Crash Bandicoot and any Blizzard character would be considered Microsoft reps if they get in Smash Bros.
 
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Swamp Sensei

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So what do you guys think about Pokemon Trainer's chances of returning?

They're a difficult character and it's technically three characters, but now that they work, they're super popular. They stand out as there's nothing like it on the roster. It's also worth noting that Pokemon Trainer is the main character of the Pokemon franchise.

So what do you think?

And please don't derail the conversation to talk about other potential trainers that just won't happen.
 

GoldenYuiitusin

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So what do you guys think about Pokemon Trainer's chances of returning?

They're a difficult character and it's technically three characters, but now that they work, they're super popular. They stand out as there's nothing like it on the roster. It's also worth noting that Pokemon Trainer is the main character of the Pokemon franchise.

So what do you think?

And please don't derail the conversation to talk about other potential trainers that just won't happen.
I think other than Pikachu, Trainer is the absolute safest Pokémon fighter barring another hardware limitation issue like the 3DS.
 

GoldenYuiitusin

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Really? I'm a bit shocked. Why do you think that?
Because while the most work, it's still a concept that would go unused if the Trainer was absent, with the Trainer also being a major component to the Pokémon franchise far more than any of the Pokémon that aren't the literal mascot.
 

Gorgonzales

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And then everybody is at each other's throats when it's an Overwatch character.
Honestly I wouldn't mind some Overwatch characters. Lord knows Blizzard doesn't deserve to have anything in Smash right now for... obvious reasons, but if an Overwatch character were to make it in I'd be actually happy, provided it's one of the more interesting ones like Junkrat, Bastion, Wrecking Ball, or Roadhog (my personal wanted character). There's a lot of unique things the Overwatch cast could bring to a platform fighter that it's impossible for me to be against an Overwatch fighter joining unless they're either a boring character that doesn't bring much new to the table, or have considerable overlap with any other video game character that could provide a similar playstyle/experience.

I don't find her to be particularly interesting, but in all likelihood they'd probably just end up going with Tracer since she's the main face of the game, but. Y'know. It's fun to imagine anyone else taking that spot.

roadhog my beloved
 
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BuckleyTim

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I don't find her to be particularly interesting, but in all likelihood they'd probably just end up going with Tracer since she's the main face of the game, but. Y'know. It's fun to imagine anyone else taking that spot.
I like her, but god Tracer would be annoying to play against in Smash lmao

Zoning tools that are little pellets to annoy you with? check
Recall to undo a really solid hit on her with little in the way of consequences? check
Blink to give her Sonic-esque mobility that's just as hard to deal with if you're slow? check

There's no way you could balance Tracer in this game without either the player or the opponent having a unfun time the entire match.
 

Gengar84

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And now since the topic of Springtrap came up and I mentioned Nemesis earlier, it's time for another one of Golden's ramblings no one asked for. :V

-clear throat-

I strongly believe that the best way to represent a horror series is to feature the killer or the monster or what have you whenever possible and plausible. You know, the actual horror element.

Think of it this way. If you were to be representing Nightmare on Elm Street, would you opt for anyone but Freddy Krueger?
If you were representing Halloween, would you pick anyone but Michael Meyers?
If Friday the 13th, Jason Voorhees, or any of his victims?
Even if Ripley was available as an option, would you not go for the Xenomorph for Alien?

Even in a gaming sense, who else would you realistically pick for Silent Hill other than Pyramid Head?
Would you really try to have Mike Schmidt instead of the titular Freddy or Springtrap if representing Five Nights at Freddy's?

This is why for example, the likes of Nemesis or Wesker are far more appealing to me for Resident Evil than Chris, Leon, Jill, etc.
Sure they could work, but when the alternative is a tall freak of nature with a rocket launcher and tentacles or a mutant Agent Smith, they just aren't as inspiring.
We completely agree on that. I’ve been advocating for Nemesis on and off here. I think the monsters themselves are definitely the best representation of the horror genre.
 

Ivander

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Besides being the main face of the game, I think Tracer would be one of the easier ones to try to do a "Specials with Cooldowns" gimmick. Like her 3 abilities aside from her firing her guns are Blink, Recall and Pulse Bomb.
  • Blink basically gives her an evasion-like forward step that also doubles as a recovery, she can use it up to 3 times, but each one would have to cooldown before she can re-use them and it only cooldowns 1 Blink at a time. The cooldown for her Blinks work because if it were infinite, she could basically kite people until they get high enough to KO and she can easily recover back unto the stage, so giving them a cooldown and limit on how many times it is used forces those playing Tracer to watch how many Blinks they have remaining, make them pay attention to the Cooldown timer on them and whether to use them to evade or keep them in case they need them to recover back unto the stage.
  • Recall would be a powerful recovery Special that can not only return her to the stage easily in certain circumstances(can work like a pseudo-version of Hero's Zoom), but can also help her with recovering some damage since she would be rather glass cannon-like. Also, depending on circumstances, she'd be able to attack or dodge shortly out of a Recall.
    However, it has a long cooldown in exchange and more than likely, a Tracer who uses Recall to return to the stage easily will still be pretty damaged to get KO'd still and they could get launched off the stage and this time unable to Recall, forcing them to try and recover normally with double jumps and Blinks.
  • Pulse Bomb would be an Ultimate ability that slowly charges up similar to Little Mac's KO Punch attack. It can only be used once in a while, but because of that, it serves as one of her powerful attacks meant to KO medium-damaged light foes or high-damaged heavyweights when she has it available.
    And the gist of it is simple. Tracer can throw a Pulse Bomb that can attach to a character or obstacle, then it explodes a second after attaching. The radius is slightly bigger than a Bom-omb.
    When thrown, the Pulse Bomb can be dodged, Shielded, countered, Reflected, Oil Panic'd, etc, but if it attaches to the character it was aimed at, the explosion will ignore all stages of invulnerability, EXCEPT for Item-based Invulnerability like Starman. If the Bomb attaches to a platform, wall, etc, than the explosion can be dodged or Shielded, but the damage is dependant on distance. The explosion can potentially hit someone in the radius after a dodge and if the explosion is Shielded, the shield can either survive if hit by the Pulse Bomb at a distance or break if shielding the explosion near the center.
    If the Pulse Bomb is shielded when thrown, the Pulse Bomb will bounce off the shield and unto the floor and it will activate once it hits the floor, which can give a player who shielded it a moment to get away from the explosion.
Basically, compared to other characters who would probably feel very limited if their Specials had Cooldowns, Tracer I think would be one of the better options where the Cooldowns would be necessary for her to prevent her from being broken with her Specials and it would force the Players playing her to strategize with using her Specials carefully since playing all gung-ho with her would get them KO'd faster.
 
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JOJONumber691

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Wouldn’t stop Tracer from being Annoyibg but it would fit. I also think some LoL Character would fit a Specials with Cooldowns Gimmick too.
 

dream1ng

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Do we think Overwatch 2, now under MS, will come to Switch 2? It's on basically everything, including current Switch. But now Blizzard is under a different parent. And granted that parent does support Nintendo, but outside of smaller games, games that seem quite Nintendo oriented like Hi-Fi Rush, and those which it is under contract to provide (CoD), support past that seems murky. Insofar as there's not a lot of precedent as opposed to not a lot of hope.

I think it probably will, since it's already everywhere. And that will probably cause another blip of presumably Tracer-based discourse.
But I hold out less hope for, like, future Doom or Wolfenstein titles. Diablo I could see, for similar ubiquity reasons.
 

Sid-cada

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So what do you guys think about Pokemon Trainer's chances of returning?

They're a difficult character and it's technically three characters, but now that they work, they're super popular. They stand out as there's nothing like it on the roster. It's also worth noting that Pokemon Trainer is the main character of the Pokemon franchise.
One thing that I think many people forget is that technically, if they have to, we can get solo 'zard again. For WiiU/3DS proved that it could happen. From that, I expect that at least Charizard will survive.

As for the other two, I expect that what happens next is going to depend heavily on what direction the next Smash takes. If something as drastic as, say, every character gets aerial Smash Attacks, a 3D leap, more specials, etc. were to occur, then more complex characters will almost certainly be on the chopping block. With a series as saturated as Pokémon, loosing a character as this might be seen as worthy sacrifice in order to squeeze out more characters who would be in regardless.

As for a more regular update, I'd say their decent. Three of the most popular and iconic Pokémon of all time, in a single character no less with an interesting gimmick, makes sense. Given that this was supposedly something Sakurai wanted to work on for some time, I'd say that a personal pet project seems like it would be an interest in keeping them in. However, if the chips are down and they are truly desperate, a more complex character getting the ax makes the most sense, especially when the series is destined to keep having a new character.
 

cashregister9

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I would unironically love an Overwatch character, I think Tracer would be fun, Winton would be interesting and Ramattra would be my personal most wanted in an ideal world.

Although for a Blizzard character I would personally go with Arthas from Warcraft or any Warcraft character really.

Do we think Overwatch 2, now under MS, will come to Switch 2? It's on basically everything, including current Switch. But now Blizzard is under a different parent. And granted that parent does support Nintendo, but outside of smaller games, games that seem quite Nintendo oriented like Hi-Fi Rush, and those which it is under contract to provide (CoD), support past that seems murky. Insofar as there's not a lot of precedent as opposed to not a lot of hope.

I think it probably will, since it's already everywhere. And that will probably cause another blip of presumably Tracer-based discourse.
But I hold out less hope for, like, future Doom or Wolfenstein titles. Diablo I could see, for similar ubiquity reasons.
I mean if the Switch 2 has backwards compatibility It will automatically be on there. But otherwise I don't see why not because there is really no reason not too for both Nintendo and Microsoft.
 
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Louie G.

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So what do you guys think about Pokemon Trainer's chances of returning?
I'd like to see them back, but I find it difficult to justify putting all their eggs into that basket instead of spreading out toward other returning Pokemon. Because I really do think Pokemon Trainer is an ingenious idea to represent the series, and all three of the Pokemon are individually fun. Squirtle and Ivysaur are especially distinct, they don't really feel like anyone else on the roster. Assuming Charizard is a lock whichever way we cut it, I would definitely miss these two.

But it's just daunting to think about the expense put on three Pokemon that could be put toward any of the others individually. Pokemon Trainer is by extension the most time intensive character on the roster and inevitably that time spent on this is time not being spent on two other characters. Pokemon is pretty obviously going to see some trimming down next game, definitely one of the first series up to suffer this consequence, and past Pichu and unfortunately Incineroar this feels like the next easiest way to make space. So I think what this comes down to is how Sakurai and the team choose to judge Pokemon Trainer, if they see the character as a unit with the hardware limitations now null and void or if every Pokemon is being individually judged (or rather, Charizard and the Squirtle / Ivysaur package deal). I wonder how we would be judging this if those unique circumstances didn't force them to be cut in the past?

So I dunno, 50/50? I think there's value in bringing Pokemon Trainer back in its entirety. It just boils down to how much development time we have, how much roster space is available and who the team wants to spend those resources on. If there are concerns about efficiency, Pokemon Trainer is a character who demands special attention and Pokemon is one of the most bountiful series on the roster as is. It's one of the more interesting cases for sure.
 
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SPEN18

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On the topic of returning Pokemon, how relevant do you think the Pokemon of the Year poll from 2020 will be? They now have pretty hard data on what the fandom likes, and the reliability of the poll at the very least passes my eyeball test in terms of lining up with what I'd expect to see at the top. It provides even clearer evidence of the levels of stardom achieved by the likes of Greninja and Lucario, and on the other side of the coin shows just how middling Incineroar's popularity is despite being a pretty recent addition to Smash at the time of the poll. The poll is a few years old now, but if the next roster was/is decided in 2023/2024, it would still be recent enough to be usable.
 

Noipoi

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On the topic of returning Pokemon, how relevant do you think the Pokemon of the Year poll from 2020 will be? They now have pretty hard data on what the fandom likes, and the reliability of the poll at the very least passes my eyeball test in terms of lining up with what I'd expect to see at the top. It provides even clearer evidence of the levels of stardom achieved by the likes of Greninja and Lucario, and on the other side of the coin shows just how middling Incineroar's popularity is despite being a pretty recent addition to Smash at the time of the poll. The poll is a few years old now, but if the next roster was/is decided in 2023/2024, it would still be recent enough to be usable.
Imagine if Greninja was in Smash bros. That'd be so cool.
 

SPEN18

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Imagine if Greninja was in Smash bros. That'd be so cool.
I meant whether the poll results would have an effect on its and other vets' chances of returning. As well as chances for various potential newcomers, though I mostly talked about the vets in that post.
 

GoldenYuiitusin

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On the topic of returning Pokemon, how relevant do you think the Pokemon of the Year poll from 2020 will be? They now have pretty hard data on what the fandom likes, and the reliability of the poll at the very least passes my eyeball test in terms of lining up with what I'd expect to see at the top. It provides even clearer evidence of the levels of stardom achieved by the likes of Greninja and Lucario, and on the other side of the coin shows just how middling Incineroar's popularity is despite being a pretty recent addition to Smash at the time of the poll. The poll is a few years old now, but if the next roster was/is decided in 2023/2024, it would still be recent enough to be usable.
I don't consider 6th place in the entire region to be "middling". Just means others were more popular.

Otherwise what does that make Mewtwo? It got 8th for Kanto behind Charizard, Gengar, Bulbasaur, Pikachu, Eevee, Dragonite, and Mew.
Should we be saying goodbye to Mewtwo in favor of Mew or Dragonite?

Jigglypuff didn't even place Top 30 for Kanto either, yet no one ever considers dropping the very well past its prime Jigglypuff simply because "its been around since Smash 64!" when no one would even think about adding Jigglypuff now like they would say, Gengar or Eevee if Jigglypuff wasn't already there.
Even Pinsir placed Top 30 for Kanto. Goddamn Pinsir. But no, Jigglypuff is perfectly fine and Incineroar should go for not being #1 in the region.
 
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dream1ng

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On the topic of returning Pokemon, how relevant do you think the Pokemon of the Year poll from 2020 will be? They now have pretty hard data on what the fandom likes, and the reliability of the poll at the very least passes my eyeball test in terms of lining up with what I'd expect to see at the top. It provides even clearer evidence of the levels of stardom achieved by the likes of Greninja and Lucario, and on the other side of the coin shows just how middling Incineroar's popularity is despite being a pretty recent addition to Smash at the time of the poll. The poll is a few years old now, but if the next roster was/is decided in 2023/2024, it would still be recent enough to be usable.
Isn't that the poll that Dedenne won one year? Between 2020 and 2021, the top ten on those polls were, no exaggeration, 100% different. It was an entirely different ten Pokemon. Focusing on one year and ignoring the other isn't a very honest look. Plus the discrepancy between the years calls how admissible these results are into question anyway.

But it's fine, there's no way TPC doesn't have actual game and market data informing them who the most popular Pokes are, which they can share with Sakurai. They don't need to rely on an... inconsistent poll which only captures part of the market anyway.

As far as Pokemon cuts go, once you get past Pichu and Incineroar, you're in the "x won't be cut territory". But it's entirely plausible Pokemon loses more than two characters, and then it's just a question of priority. There's not going to be a consensus on that ranking here, so we're just going to have to wait and see on this one.
 

Hadokeyblade

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So what do you guys think about Pokemon Trainer's chances of returning?

They're a difficult character and it's technically three characters, but now that they work, they're super popular. They stand out as there's nothing like it on the roster. It's also worth noting that Pokemon Trainer is the main character of the Pokemon franchise.

So what do you think?

And please don't derail the conversation to talk about other potential trainers that just won't happen.
I think he's safe, the only reason he didnt come back before was because of 3DS console limitations, but those are gone.
 

GoldenYuiitusin

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Isn't that the poll that Dedenne won one year? Between 2020 and 2021, the top ten on those polls were, no exaggeration, 100% different. It was an entirely different ten Pokemon. Focusing on one year and ignoring the other isn't a very honest look. Plus the discrepancy between the years calls how admissible these results are into question anyway.
The 2021 poll was also Japan exclusive and had some memery involved that affected the results.

As much as I love Buzzwole, it being the dominant Alola Pokémon by a wide margin on a poll doesn't add up for example.

Nor does Magnemite, the literal Japanese meme vote on every poll they can, beating out Pikachu at #1 for Kanto.
 
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Arcanir

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Isn't that the poll that Dedenne won one year?
That was a twitter poll ran with a different methodology and smaller sample size (as it predominantly was Japanese only). The Pokémon of the year poll they're talking about was run through Google and was worldwide.

Edit: :ultgreninja:
 
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SPEN18

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Isn't that the poll that Dedenne won one year? Between 2020 and 2021, the top ten on those polls were, no exaggeration, 100% different. It was an entirely different ten Pokemon. Focusing on one year and ignoring the other isn't a very honest look. Plus the discrepancy between the years calls how admissible these results are into question anyway.
The 2021 poll was Japan-only I believe. And just look at the vote totals, which are dwarfed by the 2020 poll that was global and even used Google to expand its reach. The 2020 poll is the one I'd give vastly more weight to. Sure they may consider the 2021 one, too, but only knowing that it's a much worse sample size and highly region-specific.

As far as Pokemon cuts go, once you get past Pichu and Incineroar, you're in the "x won't be cut territory". But it's entirely plausible Pokemon loses more than two characters, and then it's just a question of priority. There's not going to be a consensus on that ranking here, so we're just going to have to wait and see on this one.
I didn't write the post expecting a consensus, as that would be foolhardy. But I think it's valid and interesting speculation, even if it inevitably won't lead to a hard conclusion.

Also, yes, they do have other ways to measure popularity. Though if they had no use for a large-scale official popularity poll, idk why they'd waste their time running it. I think it's reasonable to think that this poll would be at least one of the things they look at.
We know the Smash team used/uses other measures of popularity before and after the Ballot, yet they still organized and utilized the results of the Ballot. The Ballot results are one popularity measure they have taken into account, so here I'm proposing that the PotY poll could be one measure they take into account for Pokemon specifically as well.

--

I don't consider 6th place in the entire region to be "middling". Just means others were more popular.
If you look at it from the angle of it beating out hundreds of others, no, it's not middling. But it's pretty middling compared to the top vote-getters, even if you combine with the votes Litten got (which you shouldn't necessarily do anyway). And also pretty middling compared to several other starters. I mean it's not a bad turnout considering how many options there were on such a poll, just not...that great.

Edit: I'm also speaking in the context of potentially using it to inform Smash. If you're considered the 6th-best choice in your region, then that basically gives you no chance for Smash unless possibly that region is Kanto. Again not trying to say this poll on its own would actually determine who's precisely the Xth-best choice in each region, just that not even being top 5 in your region is not that great in the context we're dealing with here.

Otherwise what does that make Mewtwo? It got 8th for Kanto behind Charizard, Gengar, Bulbasaur, Pikachu, Eevee, Dragonite, and Mew.
Should we be saying goodbye to Mewtwo in favor of Mew or Dragonite?
I would never suggest a poll like this should be the only consideration. I'm sure they're smart enough to know that these kinds of polls skew towards the more hardcore fanbase with more casual favorites like Pikachu or Mewtwo not necessarily doing as well as one would think. Aside from that one caveat the results line up pretty well with expectations IMO, though it's always easy to pick out the inevitable anomalies.

But no, Jigglypuff is perfectly fine and Incineroar should go for not being #1 in the region.
I was just using Incineroar as one example. I could have equally pointed out Jigglypuff's lack of performance.

I could've also just skipped giving examples altogether to avoid risk of it being taken the wrong way, but I was trying to add more substance to the starting-off point of the conversation.
 
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dream1ng

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The 2021 poll was also Japan exclusive and had some memery involved that affected the results.

As much as I love Buzzwole, it being the dominant Alola Pokémon by a wide margin on a poll doesn't add up for example.

Nor does Magnemite, the literal Japanese meme vote on every poll they can, beating out Pikachu at #1 for Kanto.
That was a twitter poll ran with a different methodology and smaller sample size (as it predominantly was Japanese only). The Pokémon of the year poll they're talking about was run through Google and was worldwide.

Edit: :ultgreninja:
Well listen, the sample sample of the second is smaller than the first but by no means insignificant. The top character received nearly 70k votes, which would be enough to put them in 5th in the 2020 poll.

If this is with minimal western influence, the disparity between the two regions nevertheless is striking. Not only were they still able to rack up enough engagement apparently largely on their own that indicates how big a presence they can be, but the results being so drastically different nevertheless would indicate inconsistent regional appeal, even eliminate the likelier meme picks.

Also it wasn't purely a twitter poll, it was a poll run on the official site, but you could also contribute by tweeting with a hashtag.

So what the second poll shows is how big the Japanese audience is, and yet how it differs from the rest. Both of those things are pertinent. In fact, if you look at Magnemite on the 2020 poll, its very low placement (nearly 25k difference) indicates the Japanese audience was likely not nearly as populated in the first year, which would skew those results away from Japan. Since Japan always votes for that weirdo.

So it seems like 2020 skews western, and 2021 skews Japanese, which probably paint an unreliable look at how things stand "globally" on both ends. The fact that 2020 has a lot of "cool" and "tough" Pokemon high up while 2021 has many more "cute" Pokemon high up does somewhat back this up, given what is popular in each region.

I mean, it is moot, TPC are going to have better internal data than either year. And the most popular Pokemon globally is obviously Pikachu; these polls, even as big as they are, are still only going to capture a fraction of the Pokemon audience.
 
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KneeOfJustice99

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So what do you guys think about Pokemon Trainer's chances of returning?

They're a difficult character and it's technically three characters, but now that they work, they're super popular. They stand out as there's nothing like it on the roster. It's also worth noting that Pokemon Trainer is the main character of the Pokemon franchise.

So what do you think?

And please don't derail the conversation to talk about other potential trainers that just won't happen.
I think whether PT comes back will probably depend on the trajectory of the series going forward... but even if they want to bring, like, most characters back, I can still imagine them cutting Squirtle and Ivysaur again akin to Sm4sh, but not due to hardware limitations - moreso, "Charizard is by far the most popular of these three and we have, like. 60 other characters to work on, so let's save ourselves a headache and only include him going forward."

It also doesn't help much that Pokemon as a series has so many more potential candidates for newcomers, whether we're talking about pure "promotional picks", fan-favourite candidates, or something else entirely. To be honest, it's at a point where there's a reasonable argument that the only true lock is Pikachu - given the practically endless potential otherwise - though it's likely that other characters, like Greninja and Mewtwo, would probably stick around due to sheer popularity too.
 
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SPEN18

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The sample size, regional differences, and skew towards the hardcore demographic are all valid concerns. Though note that those are also valid and reasonable concerns you might have with them using the Smash Ballot. I think they would take those concerns into account if they were using these results in any capacity, but I would not guess that those concerns are enough for them to just throw the results out the window.

Another comforting exercise is to just look at, say, the top two vote-getters in each region. Those are all extremely believable results. Yes, there are others you could argue you would have expected to see in those spots, but what we ended up with is pretty reasonable and reflective overall.
 

Scrimblo Bimblo

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See? This is why we need EiH 2.
Pokémon Trainer is an amazing character. It's just so fun to swap between completely different movesets with a simple button press. I found solo Charizard to be kinda lame in Smash 4 tbh, he works best as part of a trio.
Incineroar? He's Smash's wrestler character and Revenge is the dumbest move in the game. He bounces you on the ropes and lariats you. Jigglypuff has always been one of the most unique characters. Even Pichu is unique and fun, he hits like a truck and you can combo any move into any other move but you have to resource manage everything you do.
And then there's all the non-Pokémon characters.

Ultimate is just too good 😢
Pokémon Trainer in particular I think is going to be safe though.
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

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Halo fans and Doom fans pretending to be fine with each other until only one of them gets into smash 6:
"May the better space marine get in"

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He's nothing but an unfunny, stuck-in-the-past, goreobsessed, dudebro manchild

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Look at this soyconsuming Xbot shill. You can't trust Phill Spencer as far as you can throw him

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As soon as he stops shaking my hand I'm gonna brigade his newcomer poll
 
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