Every single time there's a feeling a new Smash game is getting closer, people start talking about a "reboot", "massive cuts", "back to origin" type of conversations like it's logical and needed lol, but it NEVER happens. Any new Smash is ALWAYS going to be bigger than the previous one for one simple reason: that's its marketing appeal.
The marketing appeal is more the characters than the amount of characters. Ultimate leaned hard into the quantity because if you bother bringing everyone back you better play that card. But it's not the most essential aspect of the marketing appeal.
If Smash cuts a lot of the vets but keeps the biggest faces and most of the fanbase favorites and adds like ~25 newcomers, many of whom are popular/compelling in their own right, the game will have retained its marketing appeal.
And most of Smash's audience will just buy the game if it looks cool. Which it will once they start dropping new newcomer trailers and people go "omg they added x?!". It's mostly the diehards that will throw a **** fit at cuts. More casual fans are more likely take it in stride, cuts are a regular part of video games.
Smash Ultimate is the best selling fighting game of all time for one simple reason: it's huge, its roster is insanely huge.
No, it's because it's the Smash game on Switch.
Gen 8 is the best selling gen since Gen 1, and yet in comparison to some of the previous gens it kinda blows. And it launched with fewer mons than in the past. It literally cut a huge part of the Dex and really outraged the fanbase. But it's Pokemon, and it was on Switch.
MK8D has more content now, but for the first, what? four years it had little more than MK8, and yet those two games mark one of the lowest and the highest selling MK games. Was it because they added Inkling? Or because of the difference in install base.
If the next Smash games makes no cuts and only expands, but the Switch 2 doesn't get close to the Switch's install base, you'll have a bigger roster and a game that nevertheless does not attain Ultimate's sales.
I've seen video "essays" (damn how is it that any Smash related video essay ends up being horrible lol) claiming there's no way next Smash is as big as Ultimate without any reason whatsoever. One of them said that we're getting back to a 50 character roster, which is big don't get me wrong, and then proceeded to cut Meta Knight, a perfectly implemented veteran, in favor of Bandana Dee "for reasons" lmao. Mega Man getting cut but Ryu still getting in, that kinda ****. It's so stupid it becomes annoying.
Well one reason is because Sakurai has implied as much.
And Sakurai having changed his mind about some things does not invalidate everything he says. Many others he's stood by.
Yeah, we might get some cuts. And to be honest, there are a lot of characters who really do not deserve to come back: Dr. Mario, one of the Links, all the Fire Emblem clones, a couple of Pokémons, Mii Brawler really is enough so Gunner and Swordfighter can go, yep, it might happen.
I doubt they reduce the Mii options, because it limits that DLC market and would complicate bringing back a lot of the costumes.
Basically all the clones or very similar concept characters. Maybe a few more for licensing / technical reasons (looking at Disney / Microsoft, or dual characters like the Climbers, Olimar or even Rosalina). 15 to 20 cuts out of the 89 now available is comprehensible, but it's not like we're not getting new incredible reps in return.
That's not a realistic number of cuts. They're not going to be able to get back to even like 70 vets if they start over considering they also have to focus on newcomers. At that point it would be nearing 100 characters. If they start over it's gonna be more cuts than that. If they don't start over and keep building off Ultimate like they did Smash 4, there's no reason to cut anyone apart from who they couldn't relicense.
Of one thing I'm absolutely certain: Smash 6 is going to break the 100 character roster size one way or the other, through DLC, more clones, and completely new and fresh characters. There's no coming back, they can easily use Ultimate as a base for developing factors and do it. They've proven time and time again they can, and that they want to.
It's only going to break 100 if they don't rebuild.
And it will rebuild eventually. Exponential growth isn't sustainable. In the recent video on Ultimate Sakurai listed past reasons such as moving to a different developer and the current technology making the previous data of limited use as reason they rebuilt. Eventually one or both of those will happen again.
People claiming a complete rebuild of its gameplay are even more insane. Yes, we have a game which sold 30+ million copies in a genre which is usually considered niche. Let's completely change the next one! It makes so much sense!
I agree the gameplay isn't getting completely overhauled. If they want to take Smash in a totally new direction like a 3D fighter, I don't think it will happen at the expense of the 2D fighter - I think it would happen in conjunction where both can exist.
Same stupid talk happened before Ultimate released, see where it landed lmao. Probably the same "Ridley's too big", "Snake is never coming back", "Banjo and Sora are impossible" crowd.
This degree of revisionism hurts. Yeah they ended up being disproven, but stupid talk? Stupid talk to think Disney wouldn't cooperate? That we wouldn't get a character from a rival company? That Konami would continue to be dickheads? That Sakurai would stick to his recent opinion on Ridley?
There's a difference between incorrect and stupid. None of these takes were illogical.
You know what's stupid talk to me? Getting this far in Smash and deciding something will never happen because it hasn't happened yet.
Personally I think "Smash will only ever get bigger because it hasn't yet not" is a take extremely vulnerable to eventual ridicule. I mean it doesn't really take logistics into account at all. It's not possible to outnumber Ultimate if you rebuild the roster, and the factors that Sakurai outlined as reasons they started over in the past will eventually happen again.
I don't know why they annoy me so much lol.
I don't either. Since I bet you've said things that were proven untrue at some point as well. Everyone has.