Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Noipoi]

I think realistically we're likely getting a direct on 9/12-9/13 (maybe 9/19-9/20) and then getting the big next hardware announcement some time in the first half of 2024. Nintendo is going to push Mario Wonder and stuff like Mario Kart bundles very hard and there's no reason to give casual customers a reason to think a new console is coming before the big holiday sales happen.

Especially when you look at the absolute domination of Nintendo in places like Japan, there's so much more of that market to squeaze out before the transition into the Switch 2 kicks off.

Not the 13th, that’s when The Teal Mask releases. Maybe the 20th.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I mean is it that out of the question for a Direct to have a quick segment on Pokemon and end with "The Teal Mask Expansion for Pokemon Scarlet and Violet releases today on the Nintendo eshop"?

 

[Noipoi]

I mean is it that out of the question for a Direct to have a quick segment on Pokemon and end with "The Teal Mask Expansion for Pokemon Scarlet and Violet releases today on the Nintendo eshop"?

Fair enough I suppose.

If you’re wrong I get your first born child

 

[DarthEnderX]

Though I think Gen 1 has more than enough representation in Smash, I still think Gengar is a solid pick. He'd be our first real Ghost and Poison types(Ivysaur is a poison poser).

 

[Garteam]

Either way, I think it's fair to say that the next Smash is at least in preproduction and at most substantially into development.

• Everyone seems to be in agreement that the next piece of Nintendo hardware will be released in 2024.
• Smash games generally release before the 2nd anniversary of a piece of given hardware. The exception to this trend was the 3DS, which is likely a symptom of Smash for 3DS being developed alongside Smash for Wii U.
• Iwata asked Sakurai to helm Ultimate before July 2015.
• Sakurai completed Ultimate's project plan on December 15th, 2015. The latter half of Smash for's DLC was under development during this time, so Sakurai was presumably working on Ultimate's project plan on a part-time basis between Iwata's asking him to make another Smash and this date.
• Brawl and Ultimate took about 3 years to develop. Smash for took about 2 and a half years to develop.

So, if the Switch's successor comes out in Quarter 4 of 2024 and the next Smash comes two years after that, then the project plan is likely being worked out right now. However, if the Switch's successor comes out in Quarter 1 of 2024 and Smash is planned at or near launch, then the next Smash would be entering its final stages of development right now.

 

[Wonder Smash]

Keep in mind, Sakurai's next game is still TBD...when we checked a year ago.

 

[EarlTamm]

Keep in mind, Sakurai's next game is still TBD...when we checked a year ago.

Fair, but a part of me doesn't take that sort of stuff at 100% face value. I have a vague recollection of a post-Smash 4 interview where he gave off the impression he wasn't up to anything when we now know he was busy with Ultimate at the time. Maybe I am recalling that wrong though.

 

[Noipoi]

The next Smash is definitely closer rather than farther.

And then the hype cycle will begin anew. With everything that entails.

Yippee....

 

[TheQuester]

Status moves are a potentially underexplored area for Smash movesets.

Gengar in particular is pretty famous for using moves like Disable, Confuse Ray, Hypnosis, and Will-O-Wisp. With move-disabling, though, it might be problematic that there's no clear way to telegraph to the players which move is disabled. Confuse Ray and Hypnosis would probably have to be made very difficult to hit with in order to not be broken (just like in the games, ha). Will-O-Wisp could be fun with a temporary effect of reducing their damage/knockback with direct contact moves.

Maybe there is even some strange way to do Destiny Bond, but...I can't think of how they'd do that without it being too cheap/broken...maybe it only works if the attacker is at high enough percent?

I think it's unexplored because some of them would be hard to balance and some of them would not work as well in his original form (in my opinion, of course).
But i'm personally a believer that you can adapt most moves and mechanics in super smash bros. in at least some way, of course, some of them would just not be possible.

There's some status effects i've tried to adapt to Smash:
Leech Seed would be a easy one to implementate, it drains the opponent HP periodically.
Baton Pass could change places with a opponent or ally in teams.
Calm Mind could make the b attacks of the user more powerful and the a attacks less powerful.
Cotton Guard could make cotton attached to the user body, the cotton will have separate physics and detach from the user when an attack hits a cotton attached to the user.
Court Change could swap the atributes of the characters for a few seconds.
Electric Terrain all moves adquire an electric effect.
Follow Me attracts all the characters to the user.
Hail a it starts hailing and damages all users in the stage for a few seconds.
Lock-On, the next attack will ignore dodging and shields.
Magic Room, proyectiles disaparear automatically after coming in contact with this room.
Magnet Rise, the player hovers over the ground, however it can still run and attack normally, it will lose the effect if it's sent flying off the stage.
Nasty Plot if the character that used this move is hit, the character can cancel the knockback of the move and instantanly hit the opponent that knocked the character out.
Wish, the character that use this move will heal 30% in 15, 20 or 30 seconds, at random.
Trick, the character puts a random pokemon item in a plastic vase out of three, then they will rotate, this move can only be performed if it connects with an enemy, the enemy can also pick up the item, so it's a double edged sword.
Supersonic, enemies affected with this move have 50% chance of reciving recoil damage for a few seconds.
Swager, enemies knockback and damage is increased but they can no longer shield or dodge for a few seconds.
Stealth Rock, Stays in the field, dealing 1% damage if steped in by oponents, when a oppoennt is off-the stage or in a respawn platform the rocks will proceed to attack the oponnet, dealing around 10% damage.
Some of those would probably need polish and be balanced for the actual game tho, i bet half of them would be broken or annoying lmao.

Either way, I think it's fair to say that the next Smash is at least in preproduction and at most substantially into development.

• Everyone seems to be in agreement that the next piece of Nintendo hardware will be released in 2024.
• Smash games generally release before the 2nd anniversary of a piece of given hardware. The exception to this trend was the 3DS, which is likely a symptom of Smash for 3DS being developed alongside Smash for Wii U.
• Iwata asked Sakurai to helm Ultimate before July 2015.
• Sakurai completed Ultimate's project plan on December 15th, 2015. The latter half of Smash for's DLC was under development during this time, so Sakurai was presumably working on Ultimate's project plan on a part-time basis between Iwata's asking him to make another Smash and this date.
• Brawl and Ultimate took about 3 years to develop. Smash for took about 2 and a half years to develop.

So, if the Switch's successor comes out in Quarter 4 of 2024 and the next Smash comes two years after that, then the project plan is likely being worked out right now. However, if the Switch's successor comes out in Quarter 1 of 2024 and Smash is planned at or near launch, then the next Smash would be entering its final stages of development right now.

Honestly, i think the next piece of hardware will release in 2025 than 2024, i think Nintendo wants to make Switch lifespam as long as they can tbh.
It also depends if the next game is a port or a Smash 6, if it's a port then it might release at the same time as the console, if it's a new game it will probably take like 2 years after the console so 2027ish, 9 years after Ultimate release.
I really doubt therey were thinking about the future of smash in 2021 when the DLC ended, they probably got at least a whole break year, there's no way the next game is in the final stages of development, if anything, it's probably starting pre-development stages like conceptual stuff and all of that.
Sorry, not trying to be negative, i just don't see it.

 

[ZephyrZ]

Hey everyone what's up, talking about the next big Nintendo cons-

(Ivysaur is a poison poser)

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I used to be a firm believer of a 2024 release of a new console, but I'm not so sure anymore.

We're getting Wonder, Mario RPG, a Luigi's Mansion 2 port, a new Peach game, a new Wario Ware, Detective Pikachu 2, Mario Kart and Pokemon DLC and lots of third party content. And this isn't including Metroid Prime 4 or rumoured stuff.

It doesn't seem like production is slowing down.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I used to be a firm believer of a 2024 release of a new console, but I'm not so sure anymore.

We're getting Wonder, Mario RPG, a Luigi's Mansion 2 port, a new Peach game, a new Wario Ware, Detective Pikachu 2, Mario Kart and Pokemon DLC and lots of third party content. And this isn't including Metroid Prime 4 or rumoured stuff.

It doesn't seem like production is slowing down.

To be fair it doesnt have to slow down immediately, we still got games for the old console when the new ones come out for at least a year or two.

 

[RileyXY1]

Besides, the Switch's technology is aging hard. Nintendo might be planning out their next console as we speak.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

The September Direct will be pretty revealing as far as the rest of the Switch's life. If there is an emphasis on stuff coming out this year vs. 1-2 things for 2024 (Princess Peach game, Dark Moon port) then that might be pretty telling about what's realistically left. Prime 4 could be Switch 1 or 2 at this point, and outside the Peach game, even the big speculation is about more modest releases (Wii U Zelda ports, Prime 2 and 3 releases). Nintendo is making sure holiday 2023 is loaded for Switch, but after that, who knows?

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I just hope it's backwards compatible.

 

[Garteam]

Honestly, i think the next piece of hardware will release in 2025 than 2024, i think Nintendo wants to make Switch lifespam as long as they can tbh.
It also depends if the next game is a port or a Smash 6, if it's a port then it might release at the same time as the console, if it's a new game it will probably take like 2 years after the console so 2027ish, 9 years after Ultimate release.
I really doubt therey were thinking about the future of smash in 2021 when the DLC ended, they probably got at least a whole break year, there's no way the next game is in the final stages of development, if anything, it's probably starting pre-development stages like conceptual stuff and all of that.
Sorry, not trying to be negative, i just don't see it.

Keep in mind that Ultimate began preproduction before Smash for's DLC concluded, so there's precedent supporting the development of a new Smash game beginning before post-launch support of the last one concludes. Plus, even if there was a year-long break in development, the next Smash would theoretically launch at the end of 2025 assuming development was from 2022 to 2025.

 

[Wonder Smash]

Fair, but a part of me doesn't take that sort of stuff at 100% face value. I have a vague recollection of a post-Smash 4 interview where he gave off the impression he wasn't up to anything when we now know he was busy with Ultimate at the time. Maybe I am recalling that wrong though.

But in this case, we do know he is up to something because he put that in his video.

 

[Perkilator]

Late to the Eevee talk, but I was thinking that Eevee by itself could just...be a simple fighter with Extreme Evoboost as its Final Smash. That way, you can use the other Eeveelutions without having to over-complicate Eevee's moveset. Besides, with it having become a secondary mascot for Pokemon as a whole alongside Pikachu, keeping its moveset relatively simple is more likely to win over people who love Pokemon but haven't played a Smash game before.

 

[Stratos]

If Luigi's Mansion 4 comes out the only place I can think of Luigi hunting ghosts is a big castle but you never know.

 

[EarlTamm]

I just hope it's backwards compatible.

The only times a Nintendo console wasn't backwards compatible was when they shifted from cartridges to disks and vice versa. I don't see them making the shift again if they want to keep the portable aspect for the new console. The fact that they are bringing out so many heavy hitting games for the Switch still only makes me more sure that backwards compatibility will be a thing.

But in this case, we do know he is up to something because he put that in his video.

Did he say he was up to something? I must have missed that video.

 

[TheQuester]

Keep in mind that Ultimate began preproduction before Smash for's DLC concluded, so there's precedent supporting the development of a new Smash game beginning before post-launch support of the last one concludes. Plus, even if there was a year-long break in development, the next Smash would theoretically launch at the end of 2025 assuming development was from 2022 to 2025.

You present a very valid point about the precedent, but i feel like Ultimate is a special game, and might not follow suit to the previous games or even future games, even with a one year-long break like i said, i don't see them starting development right after the break, if Ultimate was a regular smash sequel then i'll 100% agree with you here, but this game just isn't like the others, i feel like the next smash project will be in a LONG pre-dev cycle.
They might not even sure yet if make a new game or a port yet, if they decide to make a new game, it will be a sequel with like 8 cuts or a total reboot? They also might be planning to do an adventure mode like Brawl again to sell people, they might also want to include 1 or 2 BIG 3rd parties in the base game to hype people over and that might take some time to negotiate as well, for example Crash, Activision might be a bit hard to negotiate with bc i'm sure they'll won't be cheap, and getting characters like Sora back might be a changenge, like i doubt they'll want to cut Sora right after lol he's the most requested fighter after all.
Then there's also what new modes and mechanics to introduce as well, since i'm sure they'll want to make the game feel different than Ultimate.

 

[Noipoi]

I just hope it's backwards compatible.

If it isn't backwards compatible I'll eat my hat.

Even when the new console's out, they'll want to ride the wave of the Switch's success as long as they possibly can. That includes new Switch 2 owners buying old Switch games they missed out on.

 

[SPEN18]

Late to the Eevee talk, but I was thinking that Eevee by itself could just...be a simple fighter with Extreme Evoboost as its Final Smash. That way, you can use the other Eeveelutions without having to over-complicate Eevee's moveset. Besides, with it having become a secondary mascot for Pokemon as a whole alongside Pikachu, keeping its moveset relatively simple is more likely to win over people who love Pokemon but haven't played a Smash game before.

Yeah I think Eevee works fine without having to overcomplicate things. It doesn't need to evolve and devolve during the battle or any crazy stuff like that. I mentioned some pages back about giving it the theme of playfully messing with its opponent and just generally being cute as it fights.

It's just that a lot of people seem to think that giving Eevee a straightforward moveset is either difficult or boring. Personally I don't see how it's any harder or any less interesting than giving a moveset to, like, Jigglypuff honestly.

 

[Stratos]

I'm hoping for the new Nintendo console and the new Super Smash Bros to announce something in 2024, but I'm not holding out much hope for that because they might actually be announced in 2025.

 

[Pacack]

In Let's Go Eevee, Eevee got special moves for each type it can evolve into:

Bouncy Bubble (Water)
Buzzy Buzz (Electric)
Sizzly Slide (Fire)
Baddy Bad (Dark)
Glitzy Glow (Psychic)
Freezy Frost (Ice)
Sappy Seed (Grass)
Sparkly Swirl (Fairy

So it wouldn't be limited to normal type moves like some people are thinking, even assuming it didn't evolve.

 

[SPEN18]

I think it's unexplored because some of them would be hard to balance and some of them would not work as well in his original form

Yeah, definitely some effects are awkward to adapt and/or hard to balance. The other thing is that a Pokemon's Smash moveset has to fit together well and they can't just add a bunch of random status moves if they detract from the main focuses of the moveset design.
Mons like Lucario and Charizard are generally better off just attacking rather than using status moves. Though other mons like Gengar could make sense with some less traditional tools in their kits (to go along with more straightforward attacks like Shadow Ball, for example).

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Honestly I'll bet a 2026 release for the next Smash.

Its all guessing in the dark but my rough expectation is we get the next console in fall 2024 with a 3D Mario and some sort of big selling possibly and evergreen title with it (Arceus sequel, maybe Mario Party) along with more modest but well liked stuff (DKC game, Mario Maker 3, Prime 4 perhaps)

2025 sees a decently strong second year with popular sequels (Ring Fit 2, next mainline Pokemon, some kind of Mario sports game) along with expected RPG titles (next Fire Emblem, Paper Mario release) and closing out with the big holiday title, Mario Kart 9.

Then come 2026 Smash gets its big showcase alongside the next Xenoblade, another 3D Kirby, & the next Animal Crossing. Either SSB or AC will be the big holiday game and do crazy business.

 

[Wonder Smash]

Did he say he was up to something? I must have missed that video.

It's in this video towards the end.

 

[Pacack]

It's in this video towards the end.

It says next project TBD (to be determined) not TBA (to be announced), unless I'm missing something.

 

[EarlTamm]

It's in this video towards the end.

If it was "TBA", then I would believe he is openly saying he is working on something, but that just implies he is in-between projects rather than working on something secret. As I said before, I would not be shocked if he is really working on something, but I don't see that as concrete indication to that fact.

Edit:
Dang it, too slow.

 

[SPEN18]

Guys, I don't think it's worth reading into the difference between TBD and TBA there

 

[Wonder Smash]

It says next project TBD (to be determined) not TBA (to be announced), unless I'm missing something.

The point is, it shows that Sakurai does plan on doing something else after Ultimate. Could it be the next Smash Bros? Who knows?

 

[Noipoi]

At this point I wonder if Nintendo refuses to let Sakurai go, or if Sakurai won't let them make a new Smash without him.

In a joking manner of course. I obviously don't believe anyone's truly forcing anyone to do anything in this scenario.

 

[ZephyrZ]

We won't get a new Smash from Sakurai until after he is finished working on the long awaited Ice Climbers: Uprising.

Jokes aside I'd be cool if Ultimate was the only Smash game we had for a while. A follow up to Kid Icarus: Uprising is the dream but I don't think that's really happening.

But Sakurai himself has acknowledged Ultimate will be hard to top so I think it'd be good if the dev team stepped away from Smash Brothers for a bit and worked on something else in the mean time, so that they could start fresh again whenever the inevitable next Smash does eventually come around.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

It would be interesting to see Sakurai return to Kirby, especially now that its in 3D. While am slightly put off by the lack of stuff from games he didn't work on in regards to Smash, I'd imagine there's a lot about what's learned from SSB and Kid Icarus that he could apply to the franchise that made him famous.

 

[EarlTamm]

It would be interesting to see Sakurai return to Kirby, especially now that its in 3D. While am slightly put off by the lack of stuff from games he didn't work on in regards to Smash, I'd imagine there's a lot about what's learned from SSB and Kid Icarus that he could apply to the franchise that made him famous.

That could be very neat, though I am almost more curious with seeing a Kirby game where he shares the directorial seat with Shinya Kumazaki. I don't see any scenario where Kumazaki is not part of the directorial process of a new Kirby game, and I don't think Sakurai has ever been apart of a project where he had to share the position.

 

[SPEN18]

Yeah one of my (hot?) takes is that it could be beneficial for Smash to not have to come so early in a console's lifespan, or even skip a gen at some point. But I know it makes so much money that it's unlikely for us to go too long without it

 

[CapitaineCrash]

I used to be a firm believer of a 2024 release of a new console, but I'm not so sure anymore.

We're getting Wonder, Mario RPG, a Luigi's Mansion 2 port, a new Peach game, a new Wario Ware, Detective Pikachu 2, Mario Kart and Pokemon DLC and lots of third party content. And this isn't including Metroid Prime 4 or rumoured stuff.

It doesn't seem like production is slowing down.

I see this argument a lot but if you look at past Nintendo consoles this doesn't mean a lot tbh. The Wii had a very strong last year too, having Rhythm heaven fever (in Japan), Kirby return to dreamland, Zelda skyward sword and Poképark 2 all in the second half of 2011 + Kirby dream collection and Mario party 9 early 2012 before the Wii U released in 2012. Some Nintendo consoles even got games after a new gen released. For example, the DS had Kirby mass attack, Pokémon black 2/white 2 and Pokémon conquest months AFTER the 3ds released. And similarly, 3ds had a few games even after the Switch released such as Metroid Samus returns, Hey Pikmin, Fire emblem echoes, Style savvy styling star and WarioWare gold (I guess you could argue that the Switch wasn't meant to kill the 3ds, but still, it's an example of a old gen console still getting games after a new gen releases).

And heck, Playstation was still doing cross gen games until last year (God of war ragnarock, Horizon forbidden west) and the ps5 is selling like hot cakes (well at least it would if they didn't have stock issues).

So I don't think a strong final year really means that much for the future of a new console. Also the thing is, at this point even with new games coming, production will slow down, because at this point it's much harder to bring new customer even with new games. Like sure, Mario wonder will be huge, Detective Pikachu 2 could be big because of the movie, Mario kart is still getting dlc, but after 6 years most people who were into this stuff already own the console. The only thing that could really do big sales would be a price drop or a new model (the Mario model will scratch that itch, but again at this point most people who buy those models are collectors who already own the console in the first place, they don't even bring more software sales).

Besides, the Switch's technology is aging hard. Nintendo might be planning out their next console as we speak.

Might be? A console doesn't take 6 months to be planned and produced. Trust me, they've been planning a new console since 2017, maybe even before the Switch even launched lmao.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I just hope it's backwards compatible.

I hope so entirely just so the new console shares the same eshop as the switch, ala DS/3DS's eshops.

Yeah one of my (hot?) takes is that it could be beneficial for Smash to not have to come so early in a console's lifespan, or even skip a gen at some point. But I know it makes so much money that it's unlikely for us to go too long without it

Ive been thinking about this too.

Ive always found it weird that Smash is a celebration of Nintendo as of the making of that game (Obviously) but because it comes out so early in the console's lifespan the celebration only applies to games that were relevant on the previous console for the most part.
Ultimate only got around this via DLC with Byleth, Pyra and Minmin.

 

[RileyXY1]

I hope so entirely just so the new console shares the same eshop as the switch, ala DS/3DS's eshops.


Ive been thinking about this too.

Ive always found it weird that Smash is a celebration of Nintendo as of the making of that game (Obviously) but because it comes out so early in the console's lifespan the celebration only applies to games that were relevant on the previous console for the most part.
Ultimate only got around this via DLC with Byleth, Pyra and Minmin.

As well as Smash 64. Of the 12 playable characters in that game 10/12 characters had appeared on the Nintendo 64 before, with the only exceptions being Samus and Ness.