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Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

Dukefire

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Man, Smash Remix is sure growing. The fan Smash Bros games are sure to bring new ideas to characters that have yet to make an official debut as a fighter.

Though, salt and hype will flow once more IF another official Smash Bros title is announced. Until then, that topic is hands off.
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chocolatejr9

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Man, Smash Remix is sure growing. The fan Smash Bros games are sure to bring new ideas to characters that have yet to make an official debut as a fighter.

Though, salt and hype will flow once more IF another official Smash Bros title is announced. Until then, that topic is hands off.
I think I'm somewhere between Chill Wanter and Acceptor, though admittedly there are some characters I actively DON'T want, one of whom came from a recent game...
 

CannonStreak

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Man, Smash Remix is sure growing. The fan Smash Bros games are sure to bring new ideas to characters that have yet to make an official debut as a fighter.

Though, salt and hype will flow once more IF another official Smash Bros title is announced. Until then, that topic is hands off.
I am nigh-acceptor myself, or even a full acceptor. I don't like being like the Picky Wanter and the Demander. Those kind of guys have mentally unhealthy behaviors if you ask me.
 

Dukefire

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Let the ideas simmer in the pot for too long and having no room for adjustments, it can go pear shaped depending on WHO got revealed.

On the bright side, Ultimate did break down so many fan rules. So, any video game character is considered possible for the next installment despite "Everyone is Here" quote is complete with Sora. (Well, if characters are flexible for the ratings and no Fourth Party characters.)
EbsYQVIWsAITvob.jpeg
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Sucumbio

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Man, Smash Remix is sure growing. The fan Smash Bros games are sure to bring new ideas to characters that have yet to make an official debut as a fighter.

Though, salt and hype will flow once more IF another official Smash Bros title is announced. Until then, that topic is hands off.
I'm a Chill Wanter yay
 

Perkilator

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Marina’s cool and all, but…
That said, if it’s your thing, Godspeed.
 

PeridotGX

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Marina’s cool and all, but…
That said, if it’s your thing, Godspeed.
Honestly, I'm on the other side of the fence. I'm disappointed they seem to have pivoted to being fully N64 era, I want more anachronisms. I have no idea what a N64 Inkling or Dante would look like, let's find out!
 

Swamp Sensei

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Well... as of today...

Marth
Roy
Ike
Robin (Male)
Lucina
Corrin (Female)
Chrom
Byleth (Female)
Lyn
Adult Tiki

Have all one the CYL poll. That means that the only Fire Emblem character or AT who hasn't won the yearly popularity contest is Black Knight (and he's pretty darn high).

It's not a perfect system for measuring popularity, but it's the best we have. I can't in good conscience say ANY of the Fire Emblem characters in Smash are unpopular in the Fire Emblem community. There is now direct data saying they are all very popular (even Corrin). Sure, some may be contentious or controversial, but they all have the raw stats to back claims of popularity up.
 

chocolatejr9

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Well... as of today...

Marth
Roy
Ike
Robin (Male)
Lucina
Corrin (Female)
Chrom
Byleth (Female)
Lyn
Adult Tiki

Have all one the CYL poll. That means that the only Fire Emblem character or AT who hasn't won the yearly popularity contest is Black Knight (and he's pretty darn high).

It's not a perfect system for measuring popularity, but it's the best we have. I can't in good conscience say ANY of the Fire Emblem characters in Smash are unpopular in the Fire Emblem community. There is now direct data saying they are all very popular (even Corrin). Sure, some may be contentious or controversial, but they all have the raw stats to back claims of popularity up.
Now to begin the Gullveig Movement!

Time-warping snake-motifed anime waifu who's also a baddie, who's with me?
 

Ivander

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Well... as of today...

Marth
Roy
Ike
Robin (Male)
Lucina
Corrin (Female)
Chrom
Byleth (Female)
Lyn
Adult Tiki

Have all one the CYL poll. That means that the only Fire Emblem character or AT who hasn't won the yearly popularity contest is Black Knight (and he's pretty darn high).

It's not a perfect system for measuring popularity, but it's the best we have. I can't in good conscience say ANY of the Fire Emblem characters in Smash are unpopular in the Fire Emblem community. There is now direct data saying they are all very popular (even Corrin). Sure, some may be contentious or controversial, but they all have the raw stats to back claims of popularity up.
And just to clarify and note, Male Robin and Female Corrin won without the Midterm results showing the characters' places. This year around, they didn't show who was winning in order, instead they showed the Top 20 voted characters for Males and Females respectively by Alphabetical order, so no one could tell who was winning so people couldn't focus all on one hero who was winning or losing. And Male Robin and Female Corrin won that one.
 
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SPEN18

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Or are they popular because of Smash?
Probably to varying extents, but also there is no reasonable way to measure what their popularity would be if they weren't in Smash, so it's hard to argue based on that even if I'm tempted to try for some vets.

Of course, there are questions with some vets beyond mere popularity, for ex. Roy still only being actually important to a JP only game, Fates being a controversial game in general, or Ike's games of origin selling poorly (though they are regarded as "cult classic" types now).
 

Swamp Sensei

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Or are they popular because of Smash?
I highly doubt many (exclusive) Smash fans voted on a Fire Emblem based poll for a mobile game that's in its 6th year of activity.

If you're asking in general then duh...? All characters have bolstered popularity because of Smash.

You think people would know about Earthbound without it?
 
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Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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Fun fact: The only series I had no real knowledge of before Smash 64 is Metroid of all things. I played and/or recognized the rest. Even freaking EarthBound. But yeah, seriously, the game was not well known in the US(and especially not in EU). Terrible advertising didn't help, and it sucks too, because it's a really good game with some great charm.

Though to be fair, I do suck at Metroidvanias anyway, so maybe I did see the first three games but never got into it or tried it compared to the rest at the time of Smash 64, so I wouldn't remember it anyway. I dunno remember why I didn't remember.

Even then, I'm so happy with our sweet Metroid cast. Lots of neat characters, and I've enjoyed playing them all~
 

dream1ng

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Well... as of today...

Marth
Roy
Ike
Robin (Male)
Lucina
Corrin (Female)
Chrom
Byleth (Female)
Lyn
Adult Tiki

Have all one the CYL poll. That means that the only Fire Emblem character or AT who hasn't won the yearly popularity contest is Black Knight (and he's pretty darn high).

It's not a perfect system for measuring popularity, but it's the best we have. I can't in good conscience say ANY of the Fire Emblem characters in Smash are unpopular in the Fire Emblem community. There is now direct data saying they are all very popular (even Corrin). Sure, some may be contentious or controversial, but they all have the raw stats to back claims of popularity up.
I've got to back up Sucumbio here.

How many of these happened after the character was already in Smash? Because then you've got yourself a confounding variable which can otherwise manipulate the stats.

Are there a lot of exclusive Smash fans voting on this poll? Probably not. But there is a high degree of overlap between the two series given all that's transpired, and these listed characters are going to be the gateway characters to the series for many. And that will influence results.
 
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osby

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I've got to back up Sucumbio here.

How many of these happened after the character was already in Smash? Because then you've got yourself a confounding variable which can otherwise manipulate the stats.

Are there a lot of exclusive Smash fans voting on this poll? Probably not. But there is a high degree of overlap between the two series given all that's transpired, and these listed characters are going to be the gateway characters to the series for many. And that will influence results.
This would still suggest that a. Smash and Fire Emblem share a significant number of active fans and b. said fans overall react very positively to Fire Emblem characters' addition to Smash.

In the end, we can't infer how these characters' popularity would fare without Smash accurately but Swamp Sensei Swamp Sensei 's point remains uncontested: All Fire Emblem characters in Smash are pretty popular in their own communities, which can't be said for all characters in Smash and directly contrasts the common fan rhetoric that even Fire Emblem fans don't like the characters Sakurai adds (mostly directed to Corrin and Byleth).
 

SPEN18

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Like I said above it's hard to argue rigorously, but here's an attempt at the hypothetical "if they weren't in Smash" Roy/Ike popularities...

My instinctual guess is that they'd be around the popularity levels of other FE lords of their eras, so around Sigurd levels for Roy, maybe a little more since he cameo'd in the globally released FE7, and around Eirika/Ephraim levels for Ike. Anything more than that would have to do with Roy/Ike being innately "cooler" than those other characters, which you can make an argument for since Roy has his flame effects and Ike is not the traditional princey boy (even though in a way the likes of Hector and Ephraim are prenatal Ikes in that they're still people of power but not traditional mannerly princes).

Then again, if you look at the sales data (link below), then Roy and Ike actually look like relatively strange picks for Smash since, within the series, their games are sandwiched by others that did better than them: FE6 did worse than FE4 and didn't have the worldwide release benefit of FE7; meanwhile, Ike's games did worse than Sacred Stones and the remake FE11 (featuring Marth). FE5 I will executively decide to discount given its weird history, releasing on the SNES years after the N64 was already out.

Edit: I legit forgot to link the sales data: https://sourcegaming.info/2016/02/23/series-analysis-fire-emblem/
 
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Ivander

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How many of these happened after the character was already in Smash? Because then you've got yourself a confounding variable which can otherwise manipulate the stats.
Lyn, Roy, Ike and Lucina happened when FEH first released in 2017, but at the same time, everybody practically participated in it, so both Fire Emblem fans and Smash fans could be involved in it.
Marth finally happened in 2021, though he was always among the top 5 in each CYL previously. That said, this was also when you were required to have a My Nintendo Account to vote compared to the last 4 times.
Adult Tiki, Chrom and Female Byleth happened 2022, basically 4 years after Smash Ultimate released and 1 year after Sora came out, so with both the decline in Smash's focus and voting being restricted to a My Nintendo Account, the voters most likely comprised of people who still played Fire Emblem Heroes or played Fire Emblem. Probably still some Smash fans, but compared to the times when you didn't need a My Nintendo account, no where near as much. That aside, Chrom was once again a popular contender often getting around the Top 5, I think only once did he get like 6th or something. Female Byleth was also consistently popular within the Top 5s since her voting debut.
Male Robin and Female Corrin only just won Choose Your Legends now, where the voters still most likely consist mainly of FEH players and Fire Emblem fans compared to Smash fans. And both were consistent Top 10s for each CYL, sometimes getting Top 5.

Yes, all of them were in Smash Bros. before they got their CYL version, but for Marth, Chrom, Tiki, Byleth, Robin and Corrin, with the voting limited to My Nintendo Accounts, the voters were mainly going to be people dedicated to Fire Emblem and Fire Emblem Heroes, and less from Smash Bros. fans. And heck, after Byleth appeared in Smash, you'd think most Smash Bros. fans wouldn't care about a contest dedicated for Fire Emblem, so I'd safely say that by 2021, any Smash fans that weren't Fire Emblem fans already probably never cared for the contest to the point of manipulating the stats.
 

dream1ng

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This would still suggest that a. Smash and Fire Emblem share a significant number of active fans and b. said fans overall react very positively to Fire Emblem characters' addition to Smash.
Smash having a lot of fans, with many overlapping into other Nintendo series, and every character on the roster having their own fans are not revelatory developments, though.

And Smash's fanbase both handily outnumbers and significantly overlaps with FE though, and I would imagine the overlap in the FE fanbase makes up a much higher percentage than, for instance, Pokemon's fanbase. And again, unlike a much bigger series like Mario or Pokemon, a lot of FE fans probably came to it through Smash. I would reason similar things for series like Xenoblade and Kid Icarus.

In the end, we can't infer how these characters' popularity would fare without Smash accurately but Swamp Sensei Swamp Sensei 's point remains uncontested: All Fire Emblem characters in Smash are pretty popular in their own communities, which can't be said for all characters in Smash and directly contrasts the common fan rhetoric that even Fire Emblem fans don't like the characters Sakurai adds (mostly directed to Corrin and Byleth).
But because you can't extricate the influence of Smash from those results, the "raw stats" only prove that those characters are popular, but they're also in Smash - and Smash is a known cause of popularity.

Roy is the biggest case in point here. Without Smash there's no way he'd be up there with these guys. Without Smash's influence, he'd be another old, kinda unremarkable JP-only lord, outside of, y'know, later cameos and stuff that features series-wide content.

It's not admissible evidence that the characters would be popular without Smash. Many would be, that is true, and obvious. But this isn't proof of that. I know that wasn't actually claimed, but I also don't think these results are particularly noteworthy when they can't be pared from Smash's sway. You've got to look at popularity results from before they get into Smash for that. Otherwise there is a valid confound.

So I would be more interested in who charts highly who isn't playable in Smash. Because that's going to be a lot purer from inter-series influence.
 

DarthEnderX

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dream1ng

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Oh my god, ok I'm glad I checked what this CYL business is. My bad for not doing so before.

I didn't know that if you've already won, you won't get chosen again. And it's been going on for seven years? Well ****, yeah seven years in Robin and Corrin winning isn't a surprise, once characters like Lyn and Ike and Roy and Lucina and countless others were long since off the table and no longer eligible.

Characters like Ephraim, Eirika, Hector, Veronica, Micaiah, Marianne, all three house leaders, and ****ing Seliph were also chosen before they were.

So yeah, Robin and Corrin are within the top (but at the bottom) of the 28 most popular FE characters? I'm not sure this is the grand testament to popularity it's being made out to be. Unless I'm forgetting someone, the only two lords who didn't get in before these two were Sigurd and Leif.

Frankly I think them being protagonists and Smash characters and only getting in now is more an indictment of where they stand popularity-wise than a celebration of it.

So, I get it now. Carry on.
 
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Ivander

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Oh my god, ok I'm glad I checked what this CYL business is. My bad for not doing so before.

I didn't know that if you've already won, you won't get chosen again. And it's been going on for seven years? Well ****, yeah seven years in Robin and Corrin winning isn't a surprise, once characters like Lyn and Ike and Roy and Lucina and countless others were long since off the table and no longer eligible.

Characters like Ephraim, Eirika, Hector, Veronica, Micaiah, Marianne, all three house leaders, and ****ing Seliph were also chosen before they were.

So yeah, Robin and Corrin are within the top (but at the bottom) of the 28 most popular FE characters? I'm not sure this is the grand testament to popularity it's being made out to be. Unless I'm forgetting someone, the only two lords who didn't get in before these two were Sigurd and Leif.

Frankly I think them being protagonists and Smash characters and only getting in now is more an indictment of where they stand popularity-wise than a celebration of it.

So, I get it now. Carry on.
That would be ignoring the on-going popularity they had in previous CYLs. Like while it is a popularity contest for choosing characters to get special versions of themselves, Marth, Chrom, Byleth, Male Robin and Female Corrin were very consistent in previous CYLs, always staying within the Top 10 or even Top 5. And that's also ignoring recency bias as well, what with the House Leaders, Lysithea, Marianne and Gatekeeper taking the CYLs by storm not long after Three Houses release. Of course the new shiny stuff is going to overshadow the older stuff while it's gotten lots of people's attention.
Other characters winning CYL Events does not make the formers' popularity any lower compared to the latters nor does it nullify the popularity they consistently have had in previous CYL Events. So no, Male Robin and Female Corrin aren't at the bottom of the 28 most popular Fire Emblem characters, especially when as you said, the winners from the last CYLs can't be chosen. We won't ever get a good reading of where they stand in popularity until we get a Voting event where every character is back on the selection. Only then we can see where the most popular characters stand in comparison with each other.
 

dream1ng

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That would be ignoring the on-going popularity they had in previous CYLs. Like while it is a popularity contest for choosing characters to get special versions of themselves, Marth, Chrom, Byleth, Male Robin and Female Corrin were very consistent in previous CYLs, always staying within the Top 10 or even Top 5. And that's also ignoring recency bias as well, what with the House Leaders, Lysithea, Marianne and Gatekeeper taking the CYLs by storm not long after Three Houses release. Of course the new shiny stuff is going to overshadow the older stuff while it's gotten lots of people's attention.
Other characters winning CYL Events does not make the formers' popularity any lower compared to the latters nor does it nullify the popularity they consistently have had in previous CYL Events. So no, Male Robin and Female Corrin aren't at the bottom of the 28 most popular Fire Emblem characters, especially when as you said, the winners from the last CYLs can't be chosen. We won't ever get a good reading of where they stand in popularity until we get a Voting event where every character is back on the selection. Only then we can see where the most popular characters stand in comparison with each other.
Well Corrin was hovering around the bottom of the top 20 most years until ranks thinned out a bit and started moving up. I didn't check Robin but I assume he did a little better than that.

But you have to consider that the most popular characters are continually being withdrawn from the pool, which pulls everyone up over time. When the pool is full, like... they do well in relation to there being hundreds of FE characters, but as protags and Smash characters, like... not great. Fine, I guess.

But I don't think getting in now, nearing thirty, is all that impressive considering who they are.

And sure, new characters will come and be the hot **** for a minute, but that didn't regularly box out old characters. Of the seven years, I guess two were in proximity to 3H, and then Celica and Alm also got included close to their game, in separate years. That's five years not dominated by some recent release. It was enough for all the other protags bar Sigurd and Leif, JP-only boys. And even if they weren't new, maybe you'd be spared a Gatekeeper or a Marianne, but characters like the house leaders would probably still perform well regardless.

So again... given their resumes... their placement is ok. But I still don't think it's really anything to brag about.

This is like when Vaan gets voted for because Cloud, Terra, Lightning, Noctis, Squall, Cecil, Tidus, Bartz, Zidane and the Warrior of Light already made it, along with a number of supporting characters (especially from 6, 7 and 10), and it's like... well it's above most characters considering how big that full cast is, and there's still some JP protagonists left. But like... it's not great either for a protag.
 

HyperSomari64

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On the bright side, Ultimate did break down so many fan rules. So, any video game character is considered possible for the next installment despite "Everyone is Here" quote is complete with Sora. (Well, if characters are flexible for the ratings and no Fourth Party characters.)
Wait 'till Nintendo reveals the first characters for the next Smash, and they are: Goku and a Senran Kagura gurl.:4pacman:
 

Opossum

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As far as Fire Emblem characters are concerned, Roy is pretty much the only one whose popularity mostly stems from Smash. Every other one chosen for Smash was popular long before they were picked. And a lot of that stems from the fact that the Lords of each game tend to be very popular.

Marth is a bit of an icon in Japan due to being the first Lord, and was one of the biggest requests on the Melee poll as a result.

Ike was a huge request back in the Brawl days, especially from western Fire Emblem fans who really took to him.

Chrom was not only a huge request for Smash 4 (with the reaction to him missing the boat being the catalyst behind him getting into Ultimate later on), but was also the most popular male Awakening character on IS's official poll, while Lucina was the most popular on the female side. Robin also did very well there, taking second in the female division and third in the men's division (for those wondering, the character between Chrom and Male Robin was Owain lol).

Female Corrin was the most popular female Fates character on IS's official Fates poll. Male Corrin didn't do nearly as well, but the disparity between the popularity of the two Corrins is fairly well documented regardless. Smash really is the outlier with having Male Corrin be the default lol.

Byleth...is fairly popular, but comes with the caveat of being significantly less popular than Edelgard, Dimitri, and Claude, the three of whom are, honestly, probably the most popular characters in the entire franchise. Byleth gets hurt in comparison due to being a mostly silent protagonist, and it's pretty easy to see IS not doing something like that again given the circumstances lol. So either way, Byleth makes sense as a neutral choice if nothing else.


Roy, therefore, is the only one whose popularity wasn't a thing before Smash...on account of the fact that The Binding Blade didn't release until after Melee. But even then, that doesn't make his popularity lesser or anything. Popularity is still popularity, regardless of the source. I mean, look at Pikachu. Most of its popularity undeniably comes from the anime and merchandising more than the actual games. But nobody would dare call Pikachu's popularity into question. Obviously Roy doesn't reach nearly the same heights in popularity as Pikachu, but the principle still stands.
 

Swamp Sensei

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CannonStreak

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Heck, look at Morshu: he's largely popular thanks to memes, but he's still popular all the same.
I know Waluigi is popular because of memes too, but whether you talk about Morshu or Waluigi or other meme based popular characters, like what was said, they are still popular all the same.

I do agree with Swamp Sensei Swamp Sensei though, characters are popular regardless about the character’s origin of popularity, so they should not be talked dirty about the source of their popularity, maybe anything else negative or nearly anything else. That is what I was trying to say about Geno the other day, even if I could have done better on that.
 

Gengar84

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I know Waluigi is popular because of memes too, but whether you talk about Morshu or Waluigi or other meme based popular characters, like what was said, they are still popular all the same.

I do agree with Swamp Sensei Swamp Sensei though, characters are popular regardless about the character’s origin of popularity, so they should not be talked dirty about the source of their popularity, maybe anything else negative or nearly anything else. That is what I was trying to say about Geno the other day, even if I could have done better on that.
That’s true. Maybe I should start a “Do you have Battletoads?” meme for Smash. :4pacman:
 
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SpecterFlower

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I would like to say that as a longtime fire emblem fan, imo the community likes most of those characters on their own, the only one that really feels boosted is Roy. Characters like Lyn, Ike, and the black knight are just amazing characters who were fan favourites from their games, Din modern times tellius is proabably the most liked saga of games, with Ike being an important charter in the second and the main character in the first.

Smash doesn’t really have an effect on thepre-existing fire emblem fans feelings in character from what I l have seen, it definitely helps perception outside the community b it doesn’t do much within it outside the first couple weeks or so.

Edit: smash bros Roy is basically a smash oc, which is proabably why smash has propped him up the most.
 
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Geno Boost

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Marina’s cool and all, but…
That said, if it’s your thing, Godspeed.
I kinda agree to this but I wouldn’t say it really ruins the game it just doesn’t make it accurate for a 1999 smash game and that includes Sonic who had no Nintendo console appearance at that time but we can’t deny that people are enjoying them
 

SPEN18

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I mean, in life in general I tend to think that the reasons things are popular or unpopular are more important than simply whether they are popular or unpopular. It's just that in some cases (like this one) the "reasons things are popular" are more nebulously defined and/or more difficult to quantify; hence they often make a riskier basis for an objective argument. Also, Smash being a mascot fighter puts some natural emphasis on raw popularity even if it isn't nearly everything.

--

To be clear, I ultimately don't want Ike cut. It does matter to me that his games sold poorly enough to put the Fire Emblem series in potential peril and it does matter to me that he was added to Smash so early in his lifetime that it's hard to know what he would've become within the fanbase had he been just another FE protag. But it also matters to me that his games are so well-regarded now that they seem to get a Mother-like pass on the bad sales in their time and that he, to his credit, is undoubtedly innately popular via well-thought-out personality, backstory/motivations, and design. Point is: every character has reasons to be prioritized and reasons to be deprioritized and it doesn't have to be entirely black-and-white.
 

SpecterFlower

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I mean, in life in general I tend to think that the reasons things are popular or unpopular are more important than simply whether they are popular or unpopular. It's just that in some cases (like this one) the "reasons things are popular" are more nebulously defined and/or more difficult to quantify; hence they often make a riskier basis for an objective argument. Also, Smash being a mascot fighter puts some natural emphasis on raw popularity even if it isn't nearly everything.

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To be clear, I ultimately don't want Ike cut. It does matter to me that his games sold poorly enough to put the Fire Emblem series in potential peril and it does matter to me that he was added to Smash so early in his lifetime that it's hard to know what he would've become within the fanbase had he been just another FE protag. But it also matters to me that his games are so well-regarded now that they seem to get a Mother-like pass on the bad sales in their time and that he, to his credit, is undoubtedly innately popular via well-thought-out personality, backstory/motivations, and design. Point is: every character has reasons to be prioritized and reasons to be deprioritized and it doesn't have to be entirely black-and-white.
By the time the next smash release they may have rereleased the tellius games (it feels like an inevitability). It also helps he’s the most unique lord, not being an actual lord. He sticks out a lot amongst the other lords.


I also feel that a lot of people overestimate what smash does for a series and it’s characters.
 

SPEN18

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Possibly another Direct hint, though admittedly I'm not sure I buy this one:


It came from Reddit, just to be clear...
Not saying I buy the rumor, but I wouldn't put it past them to just insta/shadowdrop AW at this point. Though it will probably at least get a shoutout in the Direct I imagine, assuming that there is indeed a Direct and that AW is indeed launching soon.
 
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