Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Gengar84]

I didn't mean it in a disparaging way, I was suggesting that my pushing for Skull Kid / Midna instead wouldn't resonate with a sect of speculators who do see one-shot characters as less reasonable. I don't think it blankets everyone who supports her but I think expectation is a different story, and that's what I was trying to get at. If you put Impa on your prediction roster I feel it "takes a side" in a way about how you believe Smash prioritizes its character choices and what the most practical step forward for a stunted Zelda lineup is. If Impa and Skull Kid are equally popular then it would ultimately come down to that distinction one way or the other... consistency as a supporting role vs one standout role.

But people can want the character for any number of reasons. And even if I feel Impa's support did come from trying to solve that puzzle so to speak, she's had some pretty exciting roles and adaptations since then that have really spurred people on. Any support that has persisted for over a decade would be a bit silly to trivialize like that.

What if I put both Impa and Midna on my roster?

 

[DarthEnderX]

Yeah, while I’d hate to lose Sheik as she’s one of my favorite Smash characters, I could at least understand her being lower priority and missing the roster if they go with a completely original Impa that plays nothing like Sheik. If Impa is going to inherit Sheik’s moveset or even be an Isabelle style semiclone, I don’t understand the logic of cutting her. It wouldn’t be that much more work to keep her around and just make Impa the echo or clone.

I'd like to see AoC Impa as a Sheik Echo. But if that happens, I hope they end up with more of AoC Impa's moves.

20+ years to get another Zelda character only for her (or him) to come from a spin-off that's actually a game from a different series in a Zelda-themed skin would sting a lot for me, not gonna lie.

Wouldn't bother me in the slightest, because those a legit some of the best character designs. Especially for Impa and Ganondorf.

 

[Gengar84]

I'd like to see AoC Impa as a Sheik Echo. But if that happens, I hope they end up with more of AoC Impa's moves.

Wouldn't bother me in the slightest, because those a legit some of the best character designs. Especially for Impa and Ganondorf.

Same, although Hyrule Warriors Ganondorf is a close second to Ultimate’s for me.

 

[MBRedboy31]

Now I’m imagining Old Impa dishing out martial arts and it sounds like it could be pretty fun. They way I’m imagining her is that her base movement is kinda slow but a whole lot of her attacks make her lunge forward a surprising distance, making her movement and spacing really unique. In the cutscene in Echoes of Wisdom where she beats up some guards, she is shown to be able to dash surprisingly fast before attacking, so I think it’d make sense to interpret her movement this way.

 

[The Prankster 16]

My predictions for the likelyhood for 1st party characters to return:

Spoiler: Mario & Subseries

100% Back

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50/50

Less likely

Not returning

Spoiler: Donkey Kong

100% Back

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Spoiler: Legend of Zelda

100% Back

50/50

Not Returning

Spoiler: Metroid

100% Back

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50/50

Spoiler: Kirby

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Spoiler: Star Fox

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Spoiler: Pokemon

100% Back

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50/50

Not returning

Spoiler: Fire Emblem

100% Back

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50/50

Not Returning

Spoiler: Kid Icarus

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50/50

Spoiler: Retro Reps

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50/50

Spoiler: Other Nintendo Series

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[Gengar84]

I just had a thought: What if Smash took a page out of the original Hyrule Warriors’ book and created a new design for the default outfit of all the Zelda characters instead of picking one design from a particular game? The actual game appearances from the Zelda games could be unlockable alt outfits similar to how Hyrule Warriors handled it. This also mirrors how Link’s classic outfits in Breath of the Wild and Tears of the Kingdom were done. Not the most likely scenario but it’s a fun thought.

 

[fogbadge]

I just had a thought: What if Smash took a page out of the original Hyrule Warriors’ book and created a new design for the default outfit of all the Zelda characters instead of picking one design from a particular game? The actual game appearances from the Zelda games could be unlockable alt outfits similar to how Hyrule Warriors handled it. This also mirrors how Link’s classic outfits in Breath of the Wild and Tears of the Mingdom were done. Not the most likely scenario but it’s a fun thought.

well smash has already done it for characters like k.rool and dark samus so I don't see why not

 

[Gengar84]

well smash has already done it for characters like k.rool and dark samus so I don't see why not

I really hope K. Rool can get Kaptain K. Rool and Baron K. Roolenstein as alts for the next Smash. Lord Frederick could potentially work as an echo or semiclone. I’m sure that’s asking for a bit much though.

On the subject of alts, if we somehow keep Sora, Cloud, and Sephiroth, I wonder what the chances are of getting KH1 alts for Cloud and Sephiroth. Those designs were pretty memorable.

 

[Louie G.]

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No major qualms with your placements otherwise but I'm curious about this - what puts ROB above Icies or Duck Hunt?

Because I'll be honest, ROB is one of the characters I'm most worried about next game. If we're losing any of the "solo rep" characters then I can't help but think ROB is one of the most expendable by virtue of not having much content to his name. I like ROB a lot so I'd rather they find a reason to keep him, but I'm scared that he may be one of the characters on the shakiest footing past the more agreeable and "obvious" cuts.

In general, some of the series that have less foundation to build upon may be the first to go if push came to shove. I can only hope Sakurai finally feels inspired to incorporate a Gyromite or Stack-Up stage, or something for ROB to actually call his home. But it may be difficult to find much of anything new to do with him, which makes me wary of his chances of surviving stricter time restraints.

 

[fogbadge]

I really hope K. Rool can get Kaptain K. Rool and Baron K. Roolenstein as alts for the next Smash. Lord Frederick could potentially work as an echo or semiclone. I’m sure that’s asking for a bit much though.

On the subject of alts, if we somehow keep Sora, Cloud, and Sephiroth, I wonder what the chances are of getting KH1 alts for Cloud and Sephiroth. Those designs were pretty memorable.

I don’t think Disney own the KH designs for the SE characters

 

[Gengar84]

I don’t think Disney own the KH designs for the SE characters

Interesting. Still, I don’t think we’d get KH alts without also getting Sora back. That would feel pretty weird. Probably not the most likely alts regardless but they’d be pretty cool. I’m curious if the same is true for the Hyrule Warriors designs of existing characters. I don’t know if Nintendo or Koei Tecmo owns those.

 

[fogbadge]

Interesting. Still, I don’t think we’d get KH alts without also getting Sora back. That would feel pretty weird. Probably not the most likely alts regardless but they’d be pretty cool. I’m curious if the same is true for the Hyrule Warriors designs of existing characters. I don’t know if Nintendo or Koei Tecmo owns those.

well they’ve been used in a couple dissidia games without Sora so it could work

 

[SPEN18]

I still think Rauru is the most sensible option for BotW/ToTK. Sure, he's not as popular as some of the others, but he's the most fitting as an all-encapsulating representative who can really showcase the mechanics which make those games unique. Moveset-wise there is a ton to work with and he would really reflect the creative spirit of the Wild era. It helps a ton that he appears early and often throughout TotK, and is a character all players are guaranteed to encounter. Idk, other options like Sidon or Kohga don't scream "yes, this is the Wild era rep" to me in the same way, thematically or role-wise.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

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I honestly think Lucario is more likely to stay than Incineroar and especially since Lucario is the one Pokemon always appears in stuff if it’s not Pikachu.

 

[RileyXY1]

I honestly think Lucario is more likely to stay than Incineroar and especially since Lucario is the one Pokemon always appears in stuff if it’s not Pikachu.

Yeah. Lucario is by far the most iconic Pokémon that isn't from Gen 1. It got its own movie, was heavily spotlighted in XY, and plenty of trainers across the series have used one, including Maylene, Cynthia, Korrina, Gladion, and even Ash himself.

 

[SPEN18]

For me:
Pikachu is clearly in its own tier. I think you could make a case for Zard also being in his own tier between Pika and the rest of the lot, and Smash 4 shows that he has legs for Sakurai independent of the Trainer concept returning or not.
After that I actually think it would be a huge misjudgment not to bring back Lucario and Greninja from the standpoint of wanting to maintain some candidates with longstanding, evergreen popularity and promotion, who also expand the legacy representation beyond just gen 1; in that department, you can't really do better than these two and I feel if we were to lose them, the midsection of the Pokemon roster would be kinda caved in.
I'd love to put Mewtwo up high, but his history of being valued lower by the devs than by fans makes him enough of a question mark to be below the aforementioned. But his cut history aside, on pure merit Mewtwo also carries a ton of clout in popularity, longstanding promotion, and representative niche as the resident legendary and telekinetic.
PT I think has a chance to come back and the other Kanto starters besides Charizard receive significant and consistent promotion, I just question the viability of dedicating the resources to the three-in-one character when spots are going to be pretty tight for this game. It's just very easy to see Squirt and Ivy getting squeezed out if they can't be certain at an early enough stage that they're going to be able to commit to the concept, given the litter of other priority characters vying for resources.
That leaves, aside from Pichu, Jiggs and Incineroar. Jiggs is presumably easier to make but is pretty certainly going to be a low-priority character, just might get lucky yet again if there so happens to be just enough time for it but not enough time for any other options. Life on the edge is basically its perpetual existence. The cat made an impression on some people, but it's frankly not on the level of Lucario, Greninja, or any of the gen 1 reps in the series-wide scheme, so it always comes up on the short end relative to the competition for me.
Lastly, with Pichu, I think the vast majority of people consider it the least likely to return. That said, it definitely has merit and I wouldn't give it (or anyone, really) a "0%, no hoper" label.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

I honestly think Lucario is more likely to stay than Incineroar and especially since Lucario is the one Pokemon always appears in stuff if it’s not Pikachu.

Honestly, as much as I like Incineroar and dislike Smash Lucario, I have to agree.

I do think Pokemon might be the most up in the air/dependent on how many cuts there are, honestly.

Pikachu is guaranteed, and I feel like Greninja is especially likely to return (especially given that Legends ZA is returning to Kalos, though whether that was known during the planning phase is unknown). Mewtwo COULD be likely, but it doesn't exactly have the best track record with base games. Charizard is very likely, but people are unsure if it'll be Solozard again or Trainer again, leaving Squirtle and Ivysaur uncertain. People are saying Puff is uncertain (though I don't personally think so, people ARE saying it). Lucario is probably likely but his design is incredibly rough, and a lot of people think Incineroar is on the chopping block, but it depends on how much Sakurai values the wrestler archetype since it's a style of character he really wanted to make at least once.

As for Pichu, well... Sorry pal, but it took 17 years for you to come back for a reason.

 

[Gengar84]

It’s a shame because Lucario is one of my favorite Fighting Type Pokemon but I’m not good with it in Smash. There’s also a few things missing from its moveset that I feel like it should have. It’s weird that it has no energy bone staff and it doesn’t have the Naruto like running animation. Hopefully it gets some updates that make it more satisfying to play in the next Smash.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

It’s a shame because Lucario is one of my favorite Fighting Type Pokemon but I’m not good with it in Smash. There’s also a few things missing from its moveset that I feel like it should have. It’s weird that it has no energy bone staff and it doesn’t have the Naruto like running animation. Hopefully it gets some updates that make it more satisfying to play in the next Smash.

I wouldn't mind either of these things if the Fighter-type was actually a competent fighter

Instead, he sucks ass until you're one hit away from getting KO'd.

 

[Noipoi]

Pokemon Master offering his two cents

Pikachu is as safe as safe can get, which shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone.

Then there’s Jigglypuff, and if we lived in a logical world we probably should be a little antsy about where she stands but let’s be real, she’s coming back.

Sadly, I don’t see Pichu making the cut again. It seems like one of those “literally everyone is coming back so by definition that includes you.” cases. Kinda like Young Link.

Mewtwo should be safe, once again if this was a logical world it would be safe, it’s the og legendary. But as we’ve seen it’s attendance record is a bit more spotty. This says to me that it isn’t the highest priority for the team, and could be left out again if things shake out that way.

Charizard is totally coming back, there’s no doubt in my mind. If Pikachu is #1, this guy is #2. The only question is…

What about Squirtle and Ivysaur? Well I really think it depends on the scope of the next game and if the team feels the need to have the whole Pokemon Trainer gimmick again. They’ve already shown that they have no qualms about splitting up the trio, but would the other two return as their own solo characters? I kinda doubt it. Pokemon Trainer is solidly 50/50 imo.

Now Lucario is an incredibly popular Pokemon, and adds some much needed representation from later generations. I really don’t see him getting cut. The only thing is that Smash fans aren’t nuts about how he plays, but I don’t see that hurting his chances.

Greninja is also super popular, in fact it’s been voted the most popular Pokemon in the world in the past. And with ZA’s long awaited return to Kalos likely being in development around the same time as this hypothetical new Smash, I feel confident in saying he’s probably staying too.

And last but not least, Incineroar. Look, you guys know I love him, but rhere’s way too many Pokemon and we all know there’s gonna be a new one. So it makes sense to trim the fat by cutting one of the less popular Pokemon on the roster. I only see him staying if Sakurai just really likes the wrestler moveset he came up with and wants to keep it around a little longer, which to be fair isn’t that unlikely a possibility.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

What about Squirtle and Ivysaur? Well I really think it depends on the scope of the next game and if the team feels the need to have the whole Pokemon Trainer gimmick again. They’ve already shown that they have no qualms about splitting up the trio, but would the other two return as their own solo characters? I kinda doubt it. Pokemon Trainer is solidly 50/50 imo.

I personally think they're a frontrunner for the series by association.

Smash 4 was more of a compromise since the 3DS couldn't handle transformation characters while the idea of cutting Charizard felt rather ridiculous.

Without any hardware issues, I'd say all three of Trainer's Pokemon are highly likely solely because Charizard is

 

[Noipoi]

I personally think they're a lock by association.

Smash 4 was more of a compromise since the 3DS couldn't handle transformation characters while the idea of cutting Charizard felt rather ridiculous.

Without any hardware issues, I'd say all three of Trainer's Pokemon are highly likely solely because Charizard is

I’d be super down for that cuz I love having them all together. Just preparing myself for the possibility that Big Chorizo rebels again.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Now Lucario is an incredibly popular Pokemon, and adds some much needed representation from later generations. I really don’t see him getting cut. The only thing is that Smash fans aren’t nuts about how he plays, but I don’t see that hurting his chances.

I agree with pretty much everything you said in your message, but just wanted to mention/joke: can Gen 4 really be considered "later generations" at this point when we're five, nearly six Generations past it? lol

 

[Noipoi]

I agree with pretty much everything you said in your message, but just wanted to mention/joke: can Gen 4 really be considered "later generations" at this point when we're five, nearly six Generations past it? lol

That is a very good point! We’re at a point in the series where Gen 5, which was the crazy new “reboot” at the time, is definitively the halfway mark of the series.

When I said later generations I really just meant any region introduced after the year 2000

 

[Kirby Dragons]

Pikachu is guaranteed, but it gets tricky after that, because most of the other Pokémon have an advantage the others don't have. Charizard will probably be there in some fashion, but Pokémon Trainer's chances are about as good as the rest.

 

[CardiganBoy]

You could say the same about Dark Samus, a character who hasn't appeared since 2007 and her last appearance guaranteed she'll be deader than dead so it'd be awkward to finally bring her back for MP4.

But .

I still find baffling how Dark Samus wasn't playable in Smash 4, it was an obvious, easy pick to boost Metroid's representation since they were so adamant about making Ridley a fighter back then. Metroid content in Smash 4 was really dire with all the focus shifting towards Other M while other major titles getting ignored.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I still find baffling how Dark Samus wasn't playable in Smash 4, it was an obvious, easy pick to boost Metroid's representation since they were so adamant about making Ridley a fighter back then. Metroid content in Smash 4 was really dire with all the focus shifting towards Other M while other major titles getting ignored.

Smash 4 seemed a bit too focused on the late Wii/early 3DS era for her, if anything it should be just as surprising to me that she got as much as she did in both 4 and Ultimate, because even among the new ATs you can see they were focused on, as I said, the late Wii/early 3DS lineups.

 

[Pupp135]

My predictions for the likelyhood for 1st party characters to return:

Spoiler: Mario & Subseries

100% Back

More likely

50/50

Less likely

Not returning

Spoiler: Donkey Kong

100% Back

More Likely

Spoiler: Legend of Zelda

100% Back

50/50

Not Returning

Spoiler: Metroid

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Spoiler: Kirby

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Spoiler: Star Fox

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Spoiler: Pokemon

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Not returning

Spoiler: Fire Emblem

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50/50

Not Returning

Spoiler: Kid Icarus

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Spoiler: Retro Reps

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Spoiler: Other Nintendo Series

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I’ll make my predictions ranging from one to five where one is a character that I’m highly doubtful on returning, and five is a character that I’m highly confident in returning. I’ll only provide reasoning for characters in the two to four range as these are the more contentious spots. I ignored echoes as I typically just package them with the parent fighter with my assumptions.

Spoiler: Chances

Five

Four

Three

Two

One

Reasoning
Super Mario: Rosalina and Bowser Jr. are two fighters who have notable merits to remain on the roster where the former has a distinct gimmick and is popular within the Super Mario series, but Bowser Jr. has a more prominent role in the mainline games, and brings forth the Koopalings. Personally, I’d value Rosalina more as a fighter than Bowser Jr. Even though I find Rosalina to be a higher priority, I could see other franchises being accounted for with the character selection process, which may decrease their priority.
Legend of Zelda: I feel like Sakurai values having multiple Links, and Toon Link seemed to be a high priority in SSB For, so I think he has a good chance at making it back, and I would put him at a high four if I had to be more precise. Sheik is a character that I’d want to rate higher as she’s my secondary, and she’s a longterm veteran; however, I feel like Sheik was in Zelda’s shadow in Melee and Brawl, and she isn’t really used in much promotional material compared to other veterans on the roster, so I’m unsure how much the developers value Sheik on the roster.
Metroid: On paper, I think Zero Suit Samus could be seen as a very expendable fighter, but I think the developers find her as an important addition as she does appear in promotional material. Her main hindrance comes from competing priorities among other franchises.
Fire Emblem: This one is weird to gauge, but I think I feel comfortable with the position that I have right now for those between Marth (most probable) and Corrin (least probable). If I had to guess, priorities would be Ike > Byleth > Robin > Roy. Ike has seniority bias in his favor, and I think the developers find having a heavy swordfighter archetype important. Byleth is next as he’s a contemporary pick. I put Robin next as I think Ike and Byleth’s merits would have them be prioritized first, but I think that his moveset with tomes and weapon durability could be seen as valuable to the developers. I’d probably say Robin’s the closest to a three, but I think his dostinct playstyle is enough to make him a four. Roy may be popular, but he seems to historically be low priority.
Pokemon: Besides the single character franchises and third parties, I think Pokemon is the place with the most contention. Starting with the fours, I think Jigglypuff will squeak by as usual, Pokemon Trainer will be prioritized for their gimmick and role as the player character, but they may be cut as a last resort if time constraints become a huge issue, and Lucario seems to be the most established of the post-Kanto pokemon. Mewtwo is a complex character to predict as it was requested in both Melee and For, but it‘s exactly the highest priority based on historical trends, and we now have to account for Ultimate’s newcomers, which could make it a higher risk going into next game. I think Greninja or Incinoroar will make it next game, and I could see Incinoroar winning out if its moveset is valued more than Greninja’s. Additionally, these fighters need to compete with fighters from other franchises.
Two/Three Fighter Franchises: Starting with the Star Fox series, I think there will be a second fighter, and I’m leaning towards Falco based on historical trends, but Wolf may get luck and remain because of his popularity in Ultimate. i think Lucas would return as a later addition if he was to return given that he became a lower priority after Brawl. Palutena could be argued for a higher spot given that she was a requested character, but I could see her being removed depending on where priorities lie next game. I assume Aegis is a similar case to Byleth where their retention would be to account for more contemporary additions.
Single Fighter Franchises: Maybe it’s my bias as an Ice Climbers main, and they should maybe be a three instead of a four, but I do think that Sakurai has a soft spot for these characters given that they were worked on heavily in For, and they were used a decent amount for promoting Ultimate. Also, their two-in-one gimmick does make them stand out in terms of moveset. Min Min is a similar case to Aegis and Byleth in addition to adding the newest franchise at the time of Ultimate. I have no clue how they’ll approach the oddballs like R.O.B., Wii Fit Trainer, and Duck Hunt, and I see them all as wildcards.
Third Parties: I think Bayonetta is safer at the moment because her games were published by Nintendo, making her in the vein of an honorary Nintendo character. The threes are really a case of where Sakurai/Nintendo’s priorities are with Konami, Sqaure, Microsoft, and Disney, and it depends on how/if Square, Microsoft, and Disney want their characters to be maintained/added next game (base game, DLC, or neither). The twos are really a case of third party characters that seem to be more supplemental compared to the ones above.

 

[Arcanir]

I still find baffling how Dark Samus wasn't playable in Smash 4, it was an obvious, easy pick to boost Metroid's representation since they were so adamant about making Ridley a fighter back then. Metroid content in Smash 4 was really dire with all the focus shifting towards Other M while other major titles getting ignored.

Honestly, it's probably was just bad timing. While talking about Robin Sakurai said that if Awakening was too early or late, then they wouldn't have been included. MP3 came out just before Brawl did (or slightly after in Japan) and that was Dark Samus' swan song, so she was much too early to be included in Smash 4 which came years later.

Personally, I think if anything Brawl would've been a better shot before Ultimate as MP2 was already out and MP3 was confirmed by the time he was picking out the roster thus confirming her continued role.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I still find baffling how Dark Samus wasn't playable in Smash 4, it was an obvious, easy pick to boost Metroid's representation since they were so adamant about making Ridley a fighter back then. Metroid content in Smash 4 was really dire with all the focus shifting towards Other M while other major titles getting ignored.

That's because for how important Dark Samus was, Ridley was ten times more important.

And the future of Dark Samus wasn't great. She was canonically dead and last appeared in a game that released before Brawl. I'm not sure why you consider her an obvious character back then.

ChronoBound used to say Dark Samus was the luckiest character to be included on Ultimate's roster. If they weren't looking for echo candidates that were popular in the West, she wouldn't have made it.

 

[Guynamednelson]

If they weren't looking for echo candidates that were popular in the West, she wouldn't have made it.

And I'm even surprised she even got enough demand to get that, considering most ballot voters were assuming their votes would only be used for one Smash 4 DLC slot.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Speaking of Ballot while it's being mentioned a little for Dark Samus, I actually really want the team to do another Ballot. Like after whatever DLC passes happen next game, be like "We're doing one more character and you all get to decide it".

I want this because it's a very easy way for Sakurai and his team to keep a finger on the pulse of the community in terms of what fans would like, especially since the Smash 4 Ballot, having been used to an extent for Ultimate's character picks and potentially the next game as well since Ultimate's base game spots were very limited and all of the DLC was third parties or newer Nintendo characters that didn't exist when the Ballot happened, is nearly 10 years old.

I'd also really like it because it has potential to open doors for a lot of characters depending on how the results go, like how K. Rool was a popular choice on the Ballot and was, if I remember correctly, a big surprise to higher ups at Nintendo, which means he might have struggled to break through without that proof of popularity. This part is a bit more speculatory since it involves a future event that may not happen, but I feel like Golden Sun's sudden surge of content in Ultimate (highest spirit count of any non-playable franchise, Mii Costume, bringing the AT back with new moves) may also be because of Isaac doing decently well on the Ballot and is part of why I think Isaac has a really good chance this time around, despite being from a niche GBA/DS RPG series that got 3 games and hasn't seen a new game since Dark Dawn in 2010.

If Isaac doesn't happen next game this is gonna age pretty poorly, but I feel like Isaac probably wouldn't stand a chance under such circumstances normally, but with the ability to use the Ballot as empirical evidence that a more niche character is a popular request, it might open the door for more dormant characters as long as they have some kind of rallying behind them.

 

[Louie G.]

Selfishly, I don’t really want another ballot because the ballot winners won’t be the characters I’m interested in.

I’m being tongue in cheek, but I’m not entirely joking. I feel like you can already garner which characters are tremendously popular, and they aren’t the wildcards like Isaac these days. He and Geno are perhaps the only danglers left from Brawl / Smash 4 era community requests I can see performing well, and honestly I don’t think they would do half as well as they did during Smash 4. The rest will be megaton third parties and perhaps some grassroot movements to advocate for like… Phoenix Wright, someone on that level maybe.

And that’s all well and good, but it feels like we’re past the age of K. Rool and Ridley and in the new age of Crash and Dante and Doomguy. The avenue-openers would be smaller, but still big third parties less than it would be niche Nintendo characters. I don’t mind any of these characters in a vacuum but I feel like we don’t need a Ballot to tell us about how popular they are. Platforms like Twitter and YouTube are more reliable than they were in 2014 to garner community interest and engagement, and discussions will likely be critical of voting lame old Nintendo characters over your big iconic darlings.

I’ll openly admit this is just me being petty, but in the post-Ultimate age of speculation I only see further malice toward individual taste and discussion monopoly around third parties coming from such a competitive outlet. I’m glad it happened once but frankly, not just for my sake but for the sanity of the community, I hope Nintendo and Sakurai just eyeball social media from here on out and make educated assumptions.

This is under the assumption this second Ballot would be after the release of next game, or be influencing DLC. I’m operating under the logic that certain fan favorite first parties like Waluigi or BWD or whoever have a pretty solid avenue to the base roster already. But I suppose they would be doing well too, otherwise.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Selfishly, I don’t really want another ballot because the ballot winners won’t be the characters I’m interested in.

I’m being tongue in cheek, but I’m not entirely joking. I feel like you can already garner which characters are tremendously popular, and they aren’t the wildcards like Isaac these days. He and Geno are perhaps the only danglers left from Brawl / Smash 4 era community requests I can see performing well, and honestly I don’t think they would do half as well as they did during Smash 4. The rest will be megaton third parties and perhaps some grassroot movements to advocate for like… Phoenix Wright, someone on that level maybe.

And that’s all well and good, but it feels like we’re past the age of K. Rool and Ridley and in the new age of Crash and Dante and Doomguy. The avenue-openers would be smaller, but still big third parties less than it would be niche Nintendo characters. I don’t mind any of these characters in a vacuum but I feel like we don’t need a Ballot to tell us about how popular they are. Platforms like Twitter and YouTube are more reliable than they were in 2014 to garner community interest and engagement, and discussions will likely be critical of voting lame old Nintendo characters over your big iconic darlings.

I’ll openly admit this is just me being petty, but in the post-Ultimate age of speculation I only see further malice toward individual taste and discussion monopoly around third parties coming from such a competitive outlet. I’m glad it happened once but frankly, not just for my sake but for the sanity of the community, I hope Nintendo and Sakurai just eyeball social media from here on out and make educated assumptions.

This is under the assumption this second Ballot would be after the release of next game, or be influencing DLC. I’m operating under the logic that certain fan favorite first parties like Waluigi or BWD or whoever have a pretty solid avenue to the base roster already. But I suppose they would be doing well too, otherwise.

On one hand, I mostly agree with this post.

But on the other, I wonder how people will act knowing that ballot votes will be used for more than just one DLC fighter?

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Pikachu is guaranteed, but it gets tricky after that, because most of the other Pokémon have an advantage the others don't have. Charizard will probably be there in some fashion, but Pokémon Trainer's chances are about as good as the rest.

I can see Pokemon trainer coming back easily, the only reason they were cut originally is because they couldnt get it working on 3DS.

Thats not a restriction anymore

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Selfishly, I don’t really want another ballot because the ballot winners won’t be the characters I’m interested in.

I’m being tongue in cheek, but I’m not entirely joking. I feel like you can already garner which characters are tremendously popular, and they aren’t the wildcards like Isaac these days. He and Geno are perhaps the only danglers left from Brawl / Smash 4 era community requests I can see performing well, and honestly I don’t think they would do half as well as they did during Smash 4. The rest will be megaton third parties and perhaps some grassroot movements to advocate for like… Phoenix Wright, someone on that level maybe.

And that’s all well and good, but it feels like we’re past the age of K. Rool and Ridley and in the new age of Crash and Dante and Doomguy. The avenue-openers would be smaller, but still big third parties less than it would be niche Nintendo characters. I don’t mind any of these characters in a vacuum but I feel like we don’t need a Ballot to tell us about how popular they are. Platforms like Twitter and YouTube are more reliable than they were in 2014 to garner community interest and engagement, and discussions will likely be critical of voting lame old Nintendo characters over your big iconic darlings.

I’ll openly admit this is just me being petty, but in the post-Ultimate age of speculation I only see further malice toward individual taste and discussion monopoly around third parties coming from such a competitive outlet. I’m glad it happened once but frankly, not just for my sake but for the sanity of the community, I hope Nintendo and Sakurai just eyeball social media from here on out and make educated assumptions.

This is under the assumption this second Ballot would be after the release of next game, or be influencing DLC. I’m operating under the logic that certain fan favorite first parties like Waluigi or BWD or whoever have a pretty solid avenue to the base roster already. But I suppose they would be doing well too, otherwise.

That's fair, I understand that view point. I personally would hope things would be a little more civil now that people know it can have potentially long-standing effects on future rosters rather than assuming it would ONLY be used for Smash 4's final DLC (because I remember at the time being like "man i really hope they keep using the results going forward; maybe that's why they never showed the full results to us"), but it probably would still be full of characters like Chief and not so much first party anomalies like Isaac could be these days lol

 

[CannonStreak]

Well, this might not be a good question to ask, but...

If there WAS another ballot for Smash Bros., who would you all personally vote for?

Even though it may be best for there to not be a second ballot.

 

[Jave]

My take on the whole Priority/Safe/Cuts thing, by series:

• Only 1st parties, as 3rd parties are too hard to predict.
• If a character leaves, their Echo leaves with them. If the character stays, the Echo stays.
• I'm assuming the game Sakurai is currently working on that started development in April/May 2022 is in fact Smash 6.

Mario: Mario, Luigi, Bowser and Peach (and by extension Daisy) are all safe. Rosalina and Bowser Jr. depend on whether there's enough dev time. I could also see Sakurai prioritizing a newcomer here, like Toad or Waluigi. Doc and Plant are probably the lowest priority, but I could see Doc getting added last minute over a newcomer if Sakurai has enough time since he's an easy clone.

Donkey Kong: Donkey Kong is obviously safe, and I could see K. Rool prioritized over Diddy since he's a ballot pick, but Sakurai will likely try his hardest to bring the all back. A newcomer here (likely Dixie) will be added only if there's enough time, but not prioritized over the three veterans.

Legend of Zelda: Weird one. Link, Zelda and Ganondorf are all safe. Sheik could return based on seniority and Toon Link will likely be prioritized over Young Link. Newcomer though? Every Smash we're on the same boat that "This time they add THAT NPC from the last Zelda for sure." but it never happens. I want to think we'll finally get one for Smash 6 but man, I'm just not sure.

Metroid: Samus is safe and by extension so is Dark Samus. Ridley I can see being prioritized over ZSamus since he's a ballot pick, but I could see all returning. I suppose there's a chance for a newcomer (not familiar with Dread enough to know who to pick), but like with DK, it won't be prioritized over the veterans.

Yoshi: Yoshi is safe and that's it. There isn't much to say about this series.

Star Fox: Fox is safe. Falco will likely be prioritized over Wolf, since Sakurai had no issues cutting him once. I don't see this series getting a newcomer.

Kirby: Sakurai is 100% bringing his three babies back, but I could see no newcomer here so Sakurai could avoid accusations of favoritism (which happened when he added MK and Dedede back in Brawl).

Pokemon: Pikachu is safe. I could also see Squirtle and Ivysaur getting low prioritized and Charizard getting a solo spot once again. For the rest of the characters the prioritized list would be Lucario > Mewtwo > Greninja > Incineroar > Pichu. And since Sakurai himself confirmed Pokemon has a safe newcomer spot on every Smash, this will likely go to a Gen 9 Pokemon (money's on Meowscarada), which will be high priority only after Pikachu.

F-Zero: Cap's safe. Doubt we'll get a newcomer here, although I'll take an Echo like Jody Summer.

Earthbound: Ness' safe. Series has been done since before Brawl came out so anything new here would be a miracle, specially since Lucas was low priority in Smash 4. I suppose Ninten as a Ness Echo could happen, but even that feels like a long shot.

Fire Emblem: Lots to unpack here. Marth and by extension Lucina are safe. Ike and Byleth are likely high priority due to IntSys loving Ike and Byleth being the MC of the highest-selling entry. At this point I could see a newcomer (probably Alear) getting prioritized over Robin, Roy/Chrom and Corrin. Although Chrom is a weird one since he's a ballot pick, so maybe Sakurai will de-clone him and prioritize him higher? Who knows.

Kid Icarus: Pit and by extension Dark Pit are safe. Palutena may be as well. Don't see much happening here as far as newcomers go. I would love Viridi, but like with Kirby, Sakurai may not want to give this series much favoritism.

Warioware: Wario's safe. If we get a newcomer it could be Ashley or maybe Mona, but anyone else is probably wishful thinking.

Pikmin: An interesting one. Olimar is safe, and Oatchi feels like a popular newcomer pick so we could get him. There's also the chance of Alph getting separated into his own slot or adding another character like Louie or Brittany as an Olimar Echo.

Animal Crossing: Villager and Isabelle are likely both safe. If we get a newcomer I could see it being Tom Nook, but zero chance they prioritize him over the two veterans.

Wii Fit: Yeah, Wii Fit Trainer is probably safe due to uniqueness, but there's no other rep they could add from this series.

Punch-Out!: Mac's likely safe. I guess Sakurai could try for a second rep here with someone like Super Macho Man or Mr. Sandman since they could be easy clones, but I doubt it.

Xenoblade: Shulk and Pyra/Mythra are likely all safe, and I expect them prioritized over a newcomer (likely Noah or Mio, maybe Elma if Sakurai was aware of the Switch port).

Splatoon: Inkling is safe, and I could see Octoling added as an Echo or semi-clone. Real question is if the add a more unique newcomer, like the Squid Sisters or Off The Hook.

ARMS: Min Min I say is safe, and adding a newcomer depends on whether a new game in the series is in development. If there's not, I could see Min Min staying as the sole series rep.

And finally, the characters that represent the Retro series with no room for newcomers, I could see them being prioritized in order of seniority, but Sakurai will likely try to bring them all back since they feel like part of the same group.

• Mr. Game & Watch
• Ice Climbers
• R.O.B
• Duck Hunt

 

[CardiganBoy]

Smash 4 seemed a bit too focused on the late Wii/early 3DS era for her, if anything it should be just as surprising to me that she got as much as she did in both 4 and Ultimate, because even among the new ATs you can see they were focused on, as I said, the late Wii/early 3DS lineups.

Ultimate yes, Smash 4, hard disagree, they went too hard on Other M stuff and 3DS Metroid only existed towards the mid-late life cycle of that console so there was no original content to pull from there at the time Smash 4 was in development. At this point it is a can of worms I don't want to re-open but there's only 1 song from Hunters and Echoes each while Corruption lacked any content until they took Dark Samus' design fron that game in Ultimate, it was that bad.

For now, I'm just hopping for the next Smash that they balance the content they pick from both Dread and Prime 4 Beyond and luckily they revisit older games with almost no rep. Also, being fair I hope this is done for more franchises too, like Wario Land...

 

[SharkLord]

Am suspecting she won't be a Echo. She would've been included in either Smash 4 or Ultimate then. No reason not to. I don't think she had the same votes as Chrom or Daisy, but am pretty sure she had Dark Samus beat. And a Zelda newcomer would probably be very welcomed compared to the series who got new Echo inclusions. Knowing very well these series where either well represented (Mario and Fire Emblem) or got a newcomer that same game (Metroid with Ridley).

Same applies for Dixie and Funky honestly.

I also think we can suspect Impa to be mostly unique therefore. Or a semi clone at worst.

To play the Devil's Advocate, Impa only really picked up after Age of Calamity, which game her a relevant new design for speculators to rally around. Before then, I think I had seen Impa's name floating around a bit due to her status as a recurring character, but she wasn't seen as the "safe" frontrunner like she is now. To my knowledge, Midna and Skull Kid were the main focuses back then (Plus a bit of Ghirahim during the Smash 4 era), and I'd imagine they soaked up the bulk of the Zelda votes. I don't think Impa was seen as much of a priority back then, so there wasn't as much incentive to make her an Echo.

Furthermore, I wouldn't be surprised if Dark Samus genuinely did do that well on the Ballot. She was the main villain of the Prime subseries, has a kickass theme, and has a bunch of funky Phazon powers, on top of being Samus' evil doppelganger. That sounds like it'd give her quite a few popularity points. Plus, Sakurai explictly highlighted Dark Samus as doing well among Western voters. It's also worth noting that much of her unique abilities were lost by making her an Echo, and even given abilities she never used before to make it work. If Impa recieved a decent amount of votes, I think Sakurai really would have made her an Echo, regardless of how well that would work canonically.