Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Rebellious Treecko]

Well, this might not be a good question to ask, but...

If there WAS another ballot for Smash Bros., who would you all personally vote for?

Even though it may be best for there to not be a second ballot.

Grovyle from Pokemon Mystery Dungeon. Chunsoft (now Spike Chunsoft since merging with Spike, creator of Danagnronpa) owns the Mystery Dungeon series, so he'd be...second-party? 2.5 party...? Maybe?

 

[dream1ng]

Grovyle from Pokemon Mystery Dungeon. Chunsoft (now Spike Chunsoft since merging with Spike, creator of Danagnronpa) owns the Mystery Dungeon series, so he'd be...second-party? 2.5 party...? Maybe?

He's still first party, it'd just take Spike Chunsoft on board if they wanted to include any aspect of that sub-series that they own. Which honestly probably isn't anything to do with the character. It's probably just the Mystery Dungeon IP/brand and maybe the code.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

Sheik’s moveset was pretty much entirely created for Smash itself. I’m not sure why coming from a spinoff is a bad thing but at least they’d come from somewhere.

Well, as I said, because it's not an actual Zelda game.
The actual series has a ton of untapped potential: from iconic, unusual races with pre-established abilities like the Goron and the Zora, to TotK's crazy flexible power set, but you also have 30 years' worth of unique items and spells that Link has used at some point, and uniquely Zelda designs like Skull Kid, Midna or the actual Skyward Sword Impa that can focus on new directions were they to be made characters, not to mention goofy guys like Tingle or Kohga.
To give up all that for the sake of what is essentially an original Dynasty Warriors character that happens to resemble one particular incarnation of Impa in design alone (in an extremely sanitized version at that), who uses a weapon that's nowhere to be seen in any Zelda game, would be... Yeah, no, as a lifelong Zelda fan I'd be extremely disappointed. Give me someone who actually does Zelda stuff and leave weapon-focused fantasy characters to Fire Emblem or whatever else.

 

[smashkirby]

Anyway, time for a new topic: let’s say the reveal trailer showed five newcomers. Three of them would be first party, and the other two would be third party. What characters within that criteria would be best suited for that reveal trailer?

Bandana Waddle Dee, Waluigi, Isaac and/or Dixie Kong.

Dante and/or Shantae, Doom Slayer and/or Geno.

is there any potential retro characters (80s/90s) that could be in Smash 6?

Ultimate surprising doesn’t really have a new one in the traditional sense. Likely because new characters weren’t as important compared to characters from the previous games.

Spoiler

Lark (or any Pilotwings character for that matter)
A Wave Race character (preferably Ryota Hayami)
A 1080° character (preferably Akari Hayami, Kensuke Kimachi, or Ricky Winterborn)
Trax
Dr. Wright
Harry (Teleroboxer)
A Nintendo Wars character (Hey, I won't totally rule out something pre-Advance Wars)
Sukapon
Tamagon
Prince Sable
Mach Rider
F-Type
Excitebiker
Balloon Fighter
Alice
Bubbles
Ayumi Tachibana
Hakkun
The Marvelous trio (Dion, Max, and Jack)
Sheriff
Muddy Mole
Mike Jones
Michael Anderson
Fighter Hayabusa
A sports character (the Volleyball Girl, the Ice Hockey team, etc.)
Mr. Stevenson
Takamaru
Ray (Custom Robo)
Goku and Chao
Donbe and Hikari
Lip
Saki Amamiya
A Hanafuda character
Mini-Kangaroo (w/ various Nintendo toys from back in the day)
Doshin/Jashin
Diskun
Parabo and Satebo
Daitoryo

 

[SharkLord]

Selfishly, I don’t really want another ballot because the ballot winners won’t be the characters I’m interested in.

I’m being tongue in cheek, but I’m not entirely joking. I feel like you can already garner which characters are tremendously popular, and they aren’t the wildcards like Isaac these days. He and Geno are perhaps the only danglers left from Brawl / Smash 4 era community requests I can see performing well, and honestly I don’t think they would do half as well as they did during Smash 4. The rest will be megaton third parties and perhaps some grassroot movements to advocate for like… Phoenix Wright, someone on that level maybe.

And that’s all well and good, but it feels like we’re past the age of K. Rool and Ridley and in the new age of Crash and Dante and Doomguy. The avenue-openers would be smaller, but still big third parties less than it would be niche Nintendo characters. I don’t mind any of these characters in a vacuum but I feel like we don’t need a Ballot to tell us about how popular they are. Platforms like Twitter and YouTube are more reliable than they were in 2014 to garner community interest and engagement, and discussions will likely be critical of voting lame old Nintendo characters over your big iconic darlings.

I’ll openly admit this is just me being petty, but in the post-Ultimate age of speculation I only see further malice toward individual taste and discussion monopoly around third parties coming from such a competitive outlet. I’m glad it happened once but frankly, not just for my sake but for the sanity of the community, I hope Nintendo and Sakurai just eyeball social media from here on out and make educated assumptions.

This is under the assumption this second Ballot would be after the release of next game, or be influencing DLC. I’m operating under the logic that certain fan favorite first parties like Waluigi or BWD or whoever have a pretty solid avenue to the base roster already. But I suppose they would be doing well too, otherwise.

I really do wonder if/how the Ballot will affect next game. We've discussed to death how the base roster was super crunched for newcomers, but I'm sure some of the missing veterans scored pretty well on the poll themselves, and a decent chunk of the DLC were probably pretty popular too (Banjo and Sora we know for certain, I think Hero and Sephiroth did well in Japan, and I wouldn't be surprised if Steve performed decently well too). If you total up everyone who scored well on the poll, I'm sure it would approach the usual newcomer count.

That being said, when certain ATs were revealed, there was some considerable outcry and disappointment. Names like Waluigi, Isaac, Skull Kid, and the like seemed to have some strong followings during the pre-release cycle before the deconfirms too, and I'd imagine Sakurai might have at least some awareness of that. He might see further validation in these character's popularity, and be motivated to add them in the next game, when he has more roster space.

That said, by the time Smash 6 drops, the ballot would be approaching a decade old, so who knows how accurate it would still be. It could go either way, I'd say.

 

[Kirby Dragons]

Well, this might not be a good question to ask, but...

If there WAS another ballot for Smash Bros., who would you all personally vote for?

Even though it may be best for there to not be a second ballot.

Definitely Maxwell. He's my true most wanted.

 

[Shinuto]

I want tinkaton but I know it will never happen caue anime always makes starters take priority in advertisments outside of extreme outliers like Lucario who got movie deal before his own game.

 

[SharkLord]

Well, this might not be a good question to ask, but...

If there WAS another ballot for Smash Bros., who would you all personally vote for?

Even though it may be best for there to not be a second ballot.

Hm... My interests kinda cycle through, admittedly. If you asked me like a year or two ago, I'd probably say Adol, but my Ys mania's slowed down. Ys VIII was a very special game for me that later installments just haven't matched. Another year or two and it'd be Reimu. Similarly, my Touhou craze has simmered down over time. Currently, I think my favorites in recent memory would either be a Monster Hunter or Chai from Hi-Fi Rush. If it came down to one or the other, Monster Hunter's grown big enough for Nintendo and in general to get a strong following to rally around. Hi-Fi Rush was a surprise success, but it's still just one game and hasn't made the jump to Nintendo systems yet, so Chai's just a "Yeah he'd be pretty cool if he happened" character for most Smash fans.

 

[The Prankster 16]

I think you guys really overrate Lucario’s chances here. Yeah he was big for the anime and was pretty popular, but he peaked like 15 years ago. We just had Gen 4 remakes and Legends Arceus, and he was barely advertised for those two games. And I know he was second in that popularity poll that Greninja won, but that poll was severely flawed because it would ask what your fave from each Gen was, so of course he received a lot more votes.

I also think Incin’s chances really get downplayed. He’s a relatively popular new-ish Pokémon, which I think is good, there should be more newer characters. His moveset was one of the main reasons he was chosen for Ult and he fits a niche that no other character fills right now (something that can’t be said about Mr. Budget Mewtwo with super rage). Also, not that it matters much, but he has had extremely high usage in competitive Pokémon recently.

 

[DarthEnderX]

I actually really want the team to do another Ballot.

100%.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

It would be cool since the gap means that could be different compared to the last ballot in 2015.

 

[fogbadge]

Well, this might not be a good question to ask, but...

If there WAS another ballot for Smash Bros., who would you all personally vote for?

Even though it may be best for there to not be a second ballot.

Toad

I want tinkaton but I know it will never happen caue anime always makes starters take priority in advertisments outside of extreme outliers like Lucario who got movie deal before his own game.

her pre evolved forms belong to a main character in the anime, there every possibility that she'll be part of the main cast before the series ends

 

[Stratos]

I like voting for newcomers, but there are so many characters I want to vote for, and some of those characters aren't known to many. I would show the roster, but since I already showed it months ago, I don't want to overdo it.

 

[Diddy Kong]

To play the Devil's Advocate, Impa only really picked up after Age of Calamity, which game her a relevant new design for speculators to rally around. Before then, I think I had seen Impa's name floating around a bit due to her status as a recurring character, but she wasn't seen as the "safe" frontrunner like she is now. To my knowledge, Midna and Skull Kid were the main focuses back then (Plus a bit of Ghirahim during the Smash 4 era), and I'd imagine they soaked up the bulk of the Zelda votes. I don't think Impa was seen as much of a priority back then, so there wasn't as much incentive to make her an Echo.

Furthermore, I wouldn't be surprised if Dark Samus genuinely did do that well on the Ballot. She was the main villain of the Prime subseries, has a kickass theme, and has a bunch of funky Phazon powers, on top of being Samus' evil doppelganger. That sounds like it'd give her quite a few popularity points. Plus, Sakurai explictly highlighted Dark Samus as doing well among Western voters. It's also worth noting that much of her unique abilities were lost by making her an Echo, and even given abilities she never used before to make it work. If Impa recieved a decent amount of votes, I think Sakurai really would have made her an Echo, regardless of how well that would work canonically.

The original Hyrule Warriors also did a lot to her. And Skyward Sword is where it all began.

Honestly Midna support wasn't as much a thing for Smash 4. Skull Kid and Ghirahim took more attention, mainly cause of the remake of Majora and Skyward Sword. There was Midna support, but it died mostly after Brawl. Which was her best moment for inclusion.

Anyway, Impa was already suggested before with Skyward Sword and the original Hyrule Warriors made her gain massive momentum. This was before Smash 4 DLC was even announced, or it was just Mewtwo at this point. Not too sure. But before the ballot at least. Age of Calamity gave her even a bigger boost and now she has the exact same popularity as Midna and Skull Kid.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

There's one thing I'll bring about Impa.

The fact that Ultimate made the decision of no longer making the designs of every Zelda character not named Toon Link based on a single game is a VERY strong point for SS Impa. She no longer "missed her chance" and on top of that, the HD rerelease gives this specific Impa recent relevance too!

 

[Gengar84]

Well, this might not be a good question to ask, but...

If there WAS another ballot for Smash Bros., who would you all personally vote for?

Even though it may be best for there to not be a second ballot.

That’s a great question, and honestly, I’m a bit conflicted if I could only vote for one character. I think I’d lean towards voting for the Battletoads because they’re my brother’s all-time favorite characters, and he’s wanted them in Smash forever. Their exaggerated animations, limb transformations, and iconic designs would fit perfectly in a game like Smash. Plus, RARE’s history with Nintendo makes them feel like they’d have a natural place in the roster. That said, I realize they’re kind of a long shot, and it might feel like throwing my vote away on such an unlikely character. So, I could see myself voting for another character I love who’s a bit more culturally relevant right now.

For me, that character would be Jinx. I’ve never played League of Legends, and I don’t really have plans to start, but I’ve fallen in love with the characters and lore through Arcane. That show became one of my favorite series of all time, right up there with Fullmetal Alchemist: Brotherhood. Even though Season 2 had its flaws—like the rushed pacing due to Netflix’s meddling—it was still immensely enjoyable for me. Jinx’s progression in the show made her my favorite character, and it got me curious enough to try Legends of Runeterra and Ruined King, both of which I enjoyed. Beyond my personal connection, I think there’s actually a solid case for her inclusion in Smash, given Arcane’s popularity and the cultural impact of League of Legends. So, in that sense, voting for Jinx might make more sense, even though she’s technically my second choice.

That said, I do think Louie G. has a point. The majority of my most-wanted characters aren’t the ones you’d expect to dominate a ballot. Even Jinx is a long shot. Out of my top 10 most-wanted characters, the only one I feel somewhat confident about is Zero, and even he isn’t a lock. So, in a way, I might have a better chance of seeing some of my favorites without a ballot at all.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Well, this might not be a good question to ask, but...

If there WAS another ballot for Smash Bros., who would you all personally vote for?

Even though it may be best for there to not be a second ballot.

Nightmare Soulcalibur my beloved

 

[Gengar84]

Nightmare Soulcalibur my beloved

Nightmare would be awesome. Soul Calibur is actually my most played fighting game series after Smash and he has such a cool design and potential for a great moveset. For fighting game characters, he’s just behind Fulgore and Sub-Zero but he still made my fan roster.

 

[DarthEnderX]

If there WAS another ballot for Smash Bros., who would you all personally vote for?

Ryu Hayabusa [Ninja Gaiden]

It would be cool since the gap means that could be different compared to the last ballot in 2015.

Plus, a ballot taking place after EiH would mean a lot fewer people using their votes on veterans.

Between that, and so many of the previous ballot winners getting in, I would expect the a new ballot to have very different frontrunners this time around.

I like voting for newcomers, but there are so many characters I want to vote for, and some of those characters aren't known to many.

You just gotta buckle down and focus on a favorite.

I voted for Simon in the last ballot. I'd vote for Hayabusa in the next ballot.

 

[Gengar84]

On the flip side of being hesitant to vote for a character that’s too unlikely, voting for a character with too high of a chance would feel like throwing my vote away too. If they had a good chance of getting in regardless, my vote would feel less meaningful. That’s one reason I might not vote for Zero despite him being the most likely of my top 10. There’s definitely a lot to think about trying to find the right balance to make my vote feel somewhat meaningful. Even though I know it’s only one vote and probably won’t impact anything on the grand scale regardless.

In the end, I think I’d vote Battletoads because of my brother. Sephiroth was a personal favorite character of mine and I got him in Ultimate so it would be cool to see him have the same experience with seeing his favorite in the next game.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

🇯🇵 Japan Box Office
Dec. 27 #Sonic3movie gets off to a dismal start in Japan with est. $180K on opening day . Aproxx $0.9M opening weekend incoming and a complete collapse thereafter as the franchise continues its downward spiral in Japan pic.twitter.com/RycKyxvaPA

— FranSpeech (@Franspeech) December 27, 2024

Perhaps this might be the reason I'm bearish on the future of Sonic representation in Smash. It feels to me the franchise is suffering from the same thing that speculators believe is kneecapping Rayman's chances. Barely anybody in Sakurai's country seems to care it exists

Idk maybe these numbers don't tell the full story and it doesn't doom the odds of Shadow/Eggman/whoever but if the franchise does manage to get a newcomer it would be primarily for Western appeal. I wouldn't be shocked if in the next game another big SEGA franchise gets repped while Sonic doesn't gain much of anything content wise.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I could see another Sonic character as a base game inclusion in the next Smash or as a Banjo Kazooie esque Fighter Pass selection that is familiar to the Japanese audience but is revealed around the same time as a more worldwide appeal choice like a popular Final Fantasy character or a Resident Evil figure.

 

[Diddy Kong]

There's one thing I'll bring about Impa.

The fact that Ultimate made the decision of no longer making the designs of every Zelda character not named Toon Link based on a single game is a VERY strong point for SS Impa. She no longer "missed her chance" and on top of that, the HD rerelease gives this specific Impa recent relevance too!

Very good take. They also took the design of this particular Impa for Cadence of Hyrule and made her fight with a naginata , similar one to the one in Hyrule Warriors.

SS Impa is overlooked a lot cause a lot of the Sheikah thematics of Skyward Sword with the blueish magical effects of her abilities where used to build up the Sheikah tech of Breath of the Wild. They could also use the Sheikah related weapons of Breath of the Wild and its sequel and the way the Yiga fight to build up a move set, and throw in some stuff of the Warriors games here and there. A composition build Impa is not all too unlikely in terms of abilities.

I just think Hyrule Warriors 1 had a good design Impa cause it meshed together the most important features of Ocarina of Time and Skyward Sword Impa. That's a good way to design a character like her.

Age of Calamity however is the most popular version in terms of abilities and design however. Not too weird cause she's basically Paya but energetic and brave. Paya already being popular. But her abilities and play style made her very popular there.

If nothing else, Sheik semi clone using a few of her tilts and aerials and weapon based Smash attacks and Sheikah abilities different from Sheik as Specials.

She's prominent and has a lot of flexible options to make her work. I'm positive that this is a plus factor for choosing her.

Also considering Skull Kid, or one of the Champions of BotW, shouldn't they look at their appearances in the Hyrule Warriors games for inspiration ? Is there even one character outside of TotK Ganondorf and TotK / Echoes Zelda to really base a Zelda newcomer on that DOESN'T have Hyrule Warriors as their best source of inspiration ?

Even for the current cast of Zelda characters... can't anybody say that they wouldn't be better with a move set based on their portrayal in Hyrule Warriors.

These games shouldn't really be overlooked in general I feel.

I feel the same way about Pokken and their versions of Mewtwo and Lucario honestly.

 

[BuckleyTim]

I wish Pokken came back in some form but alas, they choose the one team to make it that'll have their hands full for the foreseeable future on tekken and probably the next smash.

It's a shame that pokemon's core gamer focused efforts never last. Gotta make room for 5 more casual smartphone apps, I guess.

...I suppose Legends fits the bill of a core gamer spinoff series. But its similarity to the mainline games kinda makes it not feel like that to me.

 

[chinkuru]

Well, this might not be a good question to ask, but...

If there WAS another ballot for Smash Bros., who would you all personally vote for?

Even though it may be best for there to not be a second ballot.

Tingle

 

[Arcanir]

I think you guys really overrate Lucario’s chances here. Yeah he was big for the anime and was pretty popular, but he peaked like 15 years ago. We just had Gen 4 remakes and Legends Arceus, and he was barely advertised for those two games. And I know he was second in that popularity poll that Greninja won, but that poll was severely flawed because it would ask what your fave from each Gen was, so of course he received a lot more votes.

During Ash's final run in Pokemon Journeys he got a Lucario. One of two Pokemon that wasn't from Gen 1 (the other was Dracovish, from the then current Generation) that he caught that also served as his ace of the team (after Pikachu of course). Said run happened during the Gen 4 remakes and PLA's promotion and it was featured in arcs related to said games, so in one of the franchise's most prominent mediums it was used to help promote the games.

And that's not the only thing the character has gotten in recent years. Offhand, it was put into the PMD remake and was the only post Gen 3 Pokemon that wasn't an evolution to do so, it was given out as a shiny to help promote SV's DLC, it was one of the first Pokemon shown in Unite and was used for promotion of that game, and it still gets a bundle of merchandise that the majority of Pokemon can't match. If we extend it further to post Gen 4 content we also get things like being used in the Pokemon anniversary Superbowl commercial (of which he was one of the few non-Gen 1 Pokemon present), it was one of the first Pokemon shown for Pokken and was basically its mascot, it being used in the B2W2 animated trailer and advertising, it getting a Mega in Gen 6 and being one of the top promoters of the mechanic, it was the main Pokemon of a main character in the I Choose You movie which was used to celebrate the anime's 20 year history, etc.

To say the character peaked 15 years ago back in Gen 4 is ignoring how the franchise and fanbase has treated it since. It's still one of the most prominent and popular Pokemon in the franchise, not just post Gen 1, but just in general, and has remained so since its debut. It's not faded in relevancy at all and has proven to stand among long standing favorites like even Mewtwo.

 

[Super Flygon]

I also want there to be another Smash Ballot. There's definitely enough popular characters to choose from for the next game, but I do think it would be a good idea to see where things stand overall now since the last ballot was nearly 10 years ago (and most of the top picks have likely already been added to Smash or at least the ones that haven't been picked are either represented in other ways and/or on the shortlist for the next game).

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

There's one thing I'll bring about Impa.

The fact that Ultimate made the decision of no longer making the designs of every Zelda character not named Toon Link based on a single game is a VERY strong point for SS Impa. She no longer "missed her chance" and on top of that, the HD rerelease gives this specific Impa recent relevance too!

A couple things about that:

• There's a decent chance everyone will be based off of The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom in the next game because of Ganondorf.
• The missed chance thing applies to recency because of how it boosts recognizably, and in that sense, she's still "missed the boat".

The first point honestly doesn't matter too much though. Just because the Triforce trio is based off of one game doesn't mean that everyone else has to, and if they're able to use the Legend of Zelda: Age of Calamity design, she'll at least exist in the same world as the others (in fact they could even say Purah made her young again so she could participate in Smash).

The second is probably what would keep them from using her Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword design, and is what keeps one-off characters from being added, and while there is a remake out, those tend to be entirely ignored when it comes to character choices.

 

[Wonder Smash]

Well, this might not be a good question to ask, but...

If there WAS another ballot for Smash Bros., who would you all personally vote for?

Even though it may be best for there to not be a second ballot.

Ryu Hayabusa would be my choice.

 

[SharkLord]

I'm still not sold on Impa being the slam dunk she's often framed as. Her main selling point is that she's the next most recurring character after the main trio, but her only truly active roles are one mainline game and a couple of spinoffs (albeit some decently well-promoted ones). Even then, to my knowledge there's other major characters in those games aside from Impa (I believe Fi and Ghirahim in SS and Lana in HW), with only AoC highlighting her as part of a trio with Link and Zelda. She's been gaining more prominence than she has in the past, yes, but the bulk of her older appearances were just that of a minor NPC. She doesn't feel truly "evergreen" in that regard.

I think an important thing to note for the Swamp poll was that the unlimited votes made it more of a measure for general acceptance of a character rather than absolute popularity. I'd imagine many voters had a mix of characters they were actively hoping for and characters they don't know much about but they sound cool and/or they think a series warrants a new character, so they wouldn't be upset by their inclusion. We saw that with Anna leading FE candidates when general fans voted, but sharply dropped off once the dedicated FE fanbase pitched in. The Zelda subreddit turned down the poll, so we don't know how the core Zelda fanbase would move the needle.

That said, Anna's just a recurring merchant who occasionally has optional playable appearances, whereas Impa's had a handful of decently major roles, so the comparison isn't one to one. To give credit where it's due, Impa might still have strong popularity among the core Zelda fanbase and not just the general fanbase. Even so, it's worth acknowledging the context and limitations of the poll and potential blind spots left over, even if it is a pretty strong and comprehensive survey overall.

🇯🇵 Japan Box Office
Dec. 27 #Sonic3movie gets off to a dismal start in Japan with est. $180K on opening day . Aproxx $0.9M opening weekend incoming and a complete collapse thereafter as the franchise continues its downward spiral in Japan pic.twitter.com/RycKyxvaPA

— FranSpeech (@Franspeech) December 27, 2024

Perhaps this might be the reason I'm bearish on the future of Sonic representation in Smash. It feels to me the franchise is suffering from the same thing that speculators believe is kneecapping Rayman's chances. Barely anybody in Sakurai's country seems to care it exists

Idk maybe these numbers don't tell the full story and it doesn't doom the odds of Shadow/Eggman/whoever but if the franchise does manage to get a newcomer it would be primarily for Western appeal. I wouldn't be shocked if in the next game another big SEGA franchise gets repped while Sonic doesn't gain much of anything content wise.

To be fair that's also a Hollywood movie that deviates from the games a decent amount. Sonic Frontiers broke the series' records of underperforming in Japan, for what it's worth. Couldn't find the details for Shadow Gens, but Frontiers' performance is definitely notable.

https://www.thegamer.com/sonic-frontiers-japan-sales-best-selling-sonic-adventure-2/

It's also worth noting that as a franchise, Sonic is just bigger than Rayman as a franchise. He gets regular annual releases, a modestly successful series of movie adaptations, an ongoing comic series, and a bunch of crossovers and tie-ins. Rayman, on the other hand, has fallen to the wayside in the past decade. The most Rayman's gotten in recent years was a DLC campaign for the second Mario + Rabbids... And a surprise appearance in Captain Laserhawk, where he does crack, wields guns, and says the F-word. Much of the trepidation surrounding Rayman in speculation is that aside from his Western-centric nature, he's also just not active nowadays, especially compared to other Ubisoft IPs like Assassin's Creed.

Plus, Sonic was evidently big enough to get into Smash for three games in a row, on top of many Sonic characters being decently popular requests. If Sonic as a series was just passed over next game in terms of content I'd be genuinely kinda shocked.

 

[NotGenerico]

While I wouldn't mind a ballot and I'd probably vote for several characters, I personally don't think it's really necessary. I think we can all agree that a character like Dante didn't do well in the ballot but had his popularity explode during Ultimate's DLC speculation. Sakurai didn't need a ballot to acknowledge him as a popular request when revealing his Mii Costume.

Nowadays, it's much easier to know which characters are popular. Nintendo only really needs to check which characters are trending when they announce a new character will be revealed soon. Honestly, they seemed pretty aware of which characters got popular during Ultimate's lifecycle. Characters like Dante and Doomguy getting Mii Costumes is pretty telling in that regard, imo.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

Also considering Skull Kid, or one of the Champions of BotW, shouldn't they look at their appearances in the Hyrule Warriors games for inspiration ? Is there even one character outside of TotK Ganondorf and TotK / Echoes Zelda to really base a Zelda newcomer on that DOESN'T have Hyrule Warriors as their best source of inspiration ?

Most of them. I know that Sakurai is usually able to find more elegant ways to represent a character's abilities than stuff like Skull Kid kicking a minature moon, or giving a weapon that doesn't even ever appear in the original series to a character who never used it anyways.
Of course, Hyrule Warriors taking that kind of creative liberties is fine I guess. It's an entirely different type of game and they needed to adapt the Zelda universe to its gameplay. But still, it's an adaptation. Why should Smash refer to it as opposed to the original games?

And historically, this kind of stuff has very rarely, if ever, been done. Spin-offs are usually referenced to fill in the blanks, like Sonic having some moves from Sonic Battle or Megaman having his uppercut from MvsC, but the vast majority of the times Smash sticks to the source material and does its own thing with it.

But speaking of Hyrule Warriors, I can't be the only one to remember the outcry for Skull Kid when he turned out to not be in the game, right? That was one of the very few times Zelda fans reached the type of manic energy the Smash fanbase was tapping into for characters like Ridley, K. Rool, or Mewtwo.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

Do you guys think that Samus in Smash 6 will be based on Dread or at least have an alt from that game.

Especially since she is still based on Other M for some reason despite having Samus Returns as her spirit artwork.

 

[CannonStreak]

Do you guys think that Samus in Smash 6 will be based on Dread or at least have an alt from that game.

Especially since she is still based on Other M for some reason despite having Samus Returns as her spirit artwork.

After what happened with Link in Ultimate, I could see something like that happen, honestly.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Do you guys think that Samus in Smash 6 will be based on Dread or at least have an alt from that game.

Especially since she is still based on Other M for some reason despite having Samus Returns as her spirit artwork.

I think the most likely scenario is going to be her Metroid Prime design as the main look with the Dread Suit colors being a pallet swap, probably replacing the Fusion Suit pallet.

It's also not unreasonable to expect the Dread Suit proper as an alternate costume. The dream would be for all of her pallet swap options to be different suits, but I don't think they'll go that far.

 

[SharkLord]

Do you guys think that Samus in Smash 6 will be based on Dread or at least have an alt from that game.

Especially since she is still based on Other M for some reason despite having Samus Returns as her spirit artwork.

Ultimate's development began in early 2016, immediately after Bayonetta dropped. Samus Returns released in 2017, so there was likely no time to account for that design. Come Smash 6, though, and Samus will have a good selection of new designs between Dread and Prime 4. Given how Smash regularly updates designs to whatever's most recent, I think it's likely that they'll have a design from at least one of those two games, if not both

 

[Arcanir]

Do you guys think that Samus in Smash 6 will be based on Dread or at least have an alt from that game.

Especially since she is still based on Other M for some reason despite having Samus Returns as her spirit artwork.

Probably, Dread is the most recent mainline title now and they tend to update her design to be in line with them (Brawl used ZM while Smash 4 used Other M, Return was probably just a bit too late to be used for Ultimate). It's also the most successful game in the franchise at this current time so that's another potential point in its favor.

 

[Louie G.]

Do you guys think that Samus in Smash 6 will be based on Dread or at least have an alt from that game.

Especially since she is still based on Other M for some reason despite having Samus Returns as her spirit artwork.

I think Samus' design will take cues from Samus Returns and/or Metroid Prime 4, since I don't think her default design would abandon the more classic looking Varia Suit. Even though the Varia Suit does appear in Dread, I think its color scheme is more suited for an alternate costume.

Otherwise I don't think the Dread suit has much business being Samus' default look (it's a lock for an alternate color) any more than the Fusion Suit would have been in Brawl. I think it's great, but there's no indication that's going to be how Samus looks for any game past this one. Not sure if they had the foresight at the time to recognize Link was going to look like this for the entirety of the Switch era, but BOTW Link has aged quite well in that respect... it also helps that Toon Link and Young Link are both around donning the classical Hero's tunic.

In general I don't think Smash designs would or should abandon the most iconic look for a given character in favor of the new thing. Or at least can find a way to consolidate both old and new sensibility into a look that conveys the essence of the character. As much as I like the Dread Suit it would feel wrong for Samus not to be that iconic orange hue by default.

Perhaps this might be the reason I'm bearish on the future of Sonic representation in Smash. It feels to me the franchise is suffering from the same thing that speculators believe is kneecapping Rayman's chances. Barely anybody in Sakurai's country seems to care it exists

Sonic is definitely better off than Rayman, as a series that still performs at least serviceably enough out there and still stands as Sega's mascot IP.

I'd maybe compare Sonic's status in Japan to what Dragon Quest is here. Dragon Quest has always existed overseas, I was well aware of the Slime and had seen a couple releases promoted for DS growing up. The brand recognition was strong but the interest at large has never matched the way it hit in Japan. Likewise, everyone in Japan who is tuned into Sega would know who Sonic is. They just aren't head over heels for him the way we are here.

We've gotten plenty of characters with heavily western popularity who Japanese audiences accepted just fine. Little Mac, Ridley, Banjo & Kazooie... and Sonic the Hedgehog. What I'm more curious about is whether or not the perspective of a Japanese audience would influence which character is chosen. Shadow seems like the frontrunner right now, but would Tails' cutesier mascot appeal play better with Japan? Food for thought, I suppose.

 

[Arcanir]

Otherwise I don't think the Dread suit has much business being Samus' default look (it's a lock for an alternate color) any more than the Fusion Suit would have been in Brawl. I think it's great, but there's no indication that's going to be how Samus looks for any game past this one. Not sure if they had the foresight at the time to recognize Link was going to look like this for the entirety of the Switch era, but BOTW Link has aged quite well in that respect... it also helps that Toon Link and Young Link are both around donning the classical Hero's tunic.

I have to disagree with this point here. In terms of advertising Nintendo has been using the Dread design ever since it's release, including the recent Nintendo Museum where they used it alongside her classic varia design rather then ignore it entirely. It also has been very popularly received and accepted by the fandom so it wouldn't face much resistance in switching over to it, particularly when compared to the Other M design which was controversial even separate of its home game's reception.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

I feel like Sakurai would totally choose Shadow. He loves Iori, he created Meta Knight and Dark Pit, he has a thing for the whole edgy rival type.