Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[CannonStreak]

I dunno if it's necessarily the gore, Japan's media can get really disturbing too. I might be conflating body horror with gore with that statement, and it might be colored by my viewing of Blood C (don't watch it. It's terrible), so it's not the most reliable observation, but I feel it's less that Fatalities are a turn off, and more just...that it's pretty much the only thing the series offers, at least as a selling point.

Well, it sure was not the only reason Mortal Kombat is not so big in Japan, and I did not say it was either, just to be clear.

Still, there are likely more factors that I don't know of (feel free to educate me) as to why Mortal Kombat is not so big in Japan. I did also hear it was rather banned in some way in Japan. Whatever the case, going back to what I said about Scorpion not being a ninja by Japanese standards completely (if I am using the right words here), well kind of, I mean to say this: That aside, for probably that AND more reasons, I don't think Scorpion being a ninja would ever be enough to have him included in Smash Bros., or at least wanted by those living in Japan. Heck! Like dream1ing said (at least I think he did), Scorpion does not really "exist" in Japan, something like that.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

So...her recent appearances do nothing for her and won't even put her into consideration, except they might put her into consideration? It doesn't work both ways. Her recent appearances make her a serious contender because they get her foot in the door. True, Sakurai has to find something in her that offers something strong enough to add over other ideas, and she's probably not more likely than Toad and the fan picks, but her chances aren't 0 just because her appearances aren't major enough.

You clearly did not understand what I said. At all.

Just showing up in spinoffs doesn't help her. It doesn't "put her foot in the door". It doesn't make her a serious contender. It never did for anyone else.
What could legitimately help her however is her history. Being the third component to the classic arcade Donkey Kong that's currently unrepresented. We know Sakurai is fond of gaming history, and Donkey Kong for the arcade is arguably the MOST significant game to Nintendo's own history for a multitude of reasons.

You blatantly misunderstood my statement about timing on doing focusing on such history to mean "her modern appearances might put her into consideration" and tried to use it as contradiction to me saying "her modern appearances won't put her into consideration", something I never actually said to begin with.
What I literally said was, and I quote:

She isn't a serious contender just because she makes a number of spinoff appearances. It literally hasn't helped anyone.

Which was neither contradicted nor actually refuted.

 

[Noipoi]

and Donkey Kong for the arcade is arguably the MOST significant game to Nintendo's own history for a multitude of reasons.

It was.

Until:

 

[ScrubReborn]

Honestly... not to step on anyone's toes, but I never understood why so many have such a hang-up over the Great Maze. It certainly wasn't as big of a chore as I remember. Heck, I actually had some fun traversing it, fighting all those enemies.

You're not alone, I had fun with the Great Maze too. Granted I remember **** was grueling, I think it was the only time my kid self needed to use my strategy guide, but I remember it felt good as **** when I finally made it to the end.

Of course if they didn't put save spots anywhere and I didn't have the book I might be singing a different tune.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

It was.

Until:
View attachment 391858

****, you right.

Forgive me, Father Horace, for I have sinned.

 

[Wonder Smash]

Okay, just making sure.

I think another thing I think that makes him not a ninja by Japanese standards, if you know what I mean, is the fact he uses Hellfire. Now, I am not well versed in Japanese history and culture, but I do not think Hellfire originated in or was a thing in Japan. I mean, there could be a Japanese equivalent to Hellfire, and Hellfire may not be a western exclusive concept, but it did mainly originate in the west if I recall correctly. I mean, have there been many ninjas in Japan who used hellfire? Feel free to correct me on everything I said.

He uses hellfire because he's an undead ninja, resurrected from the Netherrealm (which is Hell in the MK universe).

 

[CannonStreak]

He uses hellfire because he's an undead ninja from resurrected from the Netherrealm, which is Hell in the MK universe.

Yeah, I know. I was just saying that Hellfire, even though there may be equivalents for it in Japan, is not something that originated in Japan, so I was saying that could be a reason why he may not be so big there despite his being a ninja. And that is only one reason as to why he is not so big there even.

And Scorpion not being big in Japan, as I said before, is kinda odd since he IS a ninja, even though being a ninja does not mean he has to be well liked in Japan.

 

[Will]

Is thiat real?
Can you post footage from that game show?

I don’t remember the title of the show but I remember first seeing it from this video at 6:04

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

You clearly did not understand what I said. At all.

Just showing up in spinoffs doesn't help her. It doesn't "put her foot in the door". It doesn't make her a serious contender. It never did for anyone else.
What could legitimately help her however is her history. Being the third component to the classic arcade Donkey Kong that's currently unrepresented. We know Sakurai is fond of gaming history, and Donkey Kong for the arcade is arguably the MOST significant game to Nintendo's own history for a multitude of reasons.

You blatantly misunderstood my statement about timing on doing focusing on such history to mean "her modern appearances might put her into consideration" and tried to use it as contradiction to me saying "her modern appearances won't put her into consideration", something I never actually said to begin with.
What I literally said was, and I quote:

Which was neither contradicted nor actually refuted.

I think what's going on is I'm mangling my argument with yours, so let me try again:

"Pauline's recent appearances (Super Mario Odyssey and onward) do nothing for her chances of being included, as she wouldn't even be considered based off of them. Rather, her history as a Nintendo character combined with her recent appearances putting her in the public eye is what would get her considered."

This statement still kinda contradicts itself, but...that's probably still my fault. I'm gonna ignore it. I do kinda find her history to be kinda weak though. She's essentially just a proto-Princess Peach, and does basically nothing in those appearances, which doesn't really sound all that compelling for a Smash inclusion, at least to me. With just that, I'd say her chances are basically 0.

Yeah, I know. I was just saying that Hellfire, even though there may be equivalents for it in Japan, is not something that originated in Japan, so I was saying that could be a reason why he may not be so big there despite his being a ninja. And that is only one reason as to why he is not so big there even.

I don't think that's it. Honestly it probably doesn't have anything to do with Scorpion anyway. At least, not directly. It's hard for a character from a series that isn't sold where you are to become popular.

And Scorpion not being big in Japan, as I said before, is kinda odd since he IS a ninja, even though being a ninja does not mean he has to be well liked in Japan.

I think you're answering your own conundrum there. Scorpion is indeed a ninja, but that doesn't mean Japan will like him, there are way more factors that go into character popularity.

This is probably a bad example, but to attempt to flip it around, Americans (at least, stereotypically) like soldiers, but aren't super into Quiet from Metal Gear despite her being one. It's just not as simple as "X culture likes Y thing so they automatically like Z because they are apart of the Y archetype".

 

[Wonder Smash]

Yeah, I know. I was just saying that Hellfire, even though there may be equivalents for it in Japan, is not something that originated in Japan, so I was saying that could be a reason why he may not be so big there despite his being a ninja. And that is only one reason as to why he is not so big there even.

And Scorpion not being big in Japan, as I said before, is kinda odd since he IS a ninja, even though being a ninja does not mean he has to be well liked in Japan.

Yeah, just being a ninja is not enough to be popular in Japan. He's still very much a Western-made character, especially with his very Western "GET OVER HERE!" catchphrase. However, I don't think Scorpion was intended to appeal to the Japanese audience anyway. He's basically like the opposite of Terry Bogard.

 

[CannonStreak]

I don't think that's it. Honestly it probably doesn't have anything to do with Scorpion anyway. At least, not directly. It's hard for a character from a series that isn't sold where you are to become popular.

I did say that was only one reason as to why he is not so big there. That should imply there are other reasons, should it not? Plus, if anything, the Hellfire would be a minor reason here.

I think you're answering your own conundrum there. Scorpion is indeed a ninja, but that doesn't mean Japan will like him, there are way more factors that go into character popularity.

This is probably a bad example, but to attempt to flip it around, Americans (at least, stereotypically) like soldiers, but aren't super into Quiet from Metal Gear despite her being one. It's just not as simple as "X culture likes Y thing so they automatically like Z because they are apart of the Y archetype".

I wasn't looking for an answer.

I just needed to get something off my chest, that is all.

Yeah, just being a ninja is not enough to be popular in Japan. He's still very much a Western-made character, especially with his very Western "GET OVER HERE!" catchphrase. However, I don't think Scorpion was intended to appeal to the Japanese audience anyway. He's basically like the opposite of Terry Bogard.

Yep, very much. However, not going to lie; if Scorpion was in a future Smash Bros. game along with Ryu Hayabusa from Ninja Gaiden/Dead or Alive, I would find that to be sweet to the extreme level.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I don’t remember the title of the show but I remember first seeing it from this video at 6:04

This video brings up some interesting points:

• Mortal Kombat basically didn't even try to localize itself when it was still selling overseas.
• CERO is much tougher on violence than the ESRB (pretty consistant with America vs. the rest of the world), making Mortal Kombat a nonviable product in the country.
• Despite this, it does still have a pretty decent following.

Oh, and on the subject of the blind pro gamer, fighting games are actually one of the easiest game genres to play while blind, as pretty much everything produces audio feedback. The only struggle is ditto matches making it harder to keep track of who's who because both player's characters are making the same noises. Street Fighter 6 includes a pretty simple accessibility option that theoretically fixes that though.

 

[Wonder Smash]

Though just to be clear, Hellfire would not be a problem for Scorpion, as fire abilities are pretty common in ninja characters. Ryu Hayabusa and Joe Musashi both have fire abilities and I'm sure there's way more.

 

[CannonStreak]

Though just to be clear, Hellfire would not be a problem for Scorpion, as fire abilities are pretty common in ninja characters. Ryu Hayabusa and Joe Musashi both have fire abilities and I'm sure there's way more.

Yeah, I know. I am sure it could work, though I was talking about the origin of Hellfire rather than fire altogether. It probably would not do much against Scorpion, but yeah, he is still western, so that does not help.

 

[Sucumbio]

I only found one aspect of SSE annoying; the higher gravity to every character, which made many barely usable at all during some areas. Otherwise, it was pretty fun. Sure, I'd like more non-OC enemies, but that didn't outright bother me.

Did it? I never noticed lol

 

[CardiganBoy]

Yeah, I know. I am sure it could work, though I was talking about the origin of Hellfire rather than fire altogether. It probably would not do much against Scorpion, but yeah, he is still western, so that does not help.

Since MK has heavy fantasy or rather dark fantasy elements to it I think inaccuracies with real life ninjas can be forgiven, and the hellfire technique was probably named like that because Scorpion is a revenant spirit seeking vengeance so maybe they thought it was fitting. Now I think it would be cooler if he did ninja hand signs to summon the flames instead of moving his arms like his some kind of mage.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

So guys, what do you guys think of the state of the Star Fox franchise? What's the future look like?

DK is at least getting ports and F-Zero finally got a game.

Is Star Fox just **** outta luck?

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

F-Zero and DK seem to be in higher demand than Starfox nowadays, probably because their last big outings (F-Zero GX and Tropical Freeze) are considered among the best games in their respective genres. They went out with a bang while Starfox kinda fizzled out, and more of the same would be enough to bring the fans on board I think.

Starfox is a little more complicated imo. It has a lot of potential but it's not as clear which direction the series should take.

 

[dream1ng]

So guys, what do you guys think of the state of the Star Fox franchise? What's the future look like?

DK is at least getting ports and F-Zero finally got a game.

Is Star Fox just **** outta luck?

For Switch, yes. But I think it'll be back on the next system at some point. I think Nintendo continues to experiment with ideas for it behind the scenes, and they'd be open to an outside dev taking a crack at it with the right pitch and the right track record.

I also think DK is coming back with an actual new game sooner than later.

 

[Arcanir]

So guys, what do you guys think of the state of the Star Fox franchise? What's the future look like?

DK is at least getting ports and F-Zero finally got a game.

Is Star Fox just **** outta luck?

I think as long as Miyamoto is around he'll try to keep pushing for it and we'll get something in the future, but the main problem it has to overcome is finding a good direction to take it. Past 64 it's been stuck with different developers, gimmicks, and/or trying to revisit the original Lylat Wars storyline with a 'twist', and none of them have fully clicked and has left it feeling aimless. The biggest success for the franchise in recent memory was the exclusive scenario with Starlinks as that got a new event storyline made for it, but you can't really continue off of that as that's a crossover and some elements have to be left behind with the original game.

Personally, while I would prefer continuing off of Assault, I think what they'll do is use Zero as a new launching point and continue the story from there. It's the newest timeline and doesn't have any baggage left behind like with Command's multiple endings, so they would have more freedom to take the story in whatever direction they want to go.

 

[Oracle Link]

So the question is who should be the first newcomer revealed?

Brawl started with a banger of Pit, Meta Knight, Zamus, Wario, and Snake getting revealed in the first trailer

Wii U/3DS started with Villager, Megaman, and Wii Fit Trainer

ultimate had all the veterans return along with Inklings being revealed for newcomers.

I’m thinking it has to be someone who is popular and heavily requested. But the question is who? Can others join after the first reveal, but the first one creates hype

I think the first character should be Bandana Waddle Dee The third parties should be saved for later reveals!
And Bandana Waddle Dee is Popular and kirby fans are staving! Like Metroid, Mario, Pokemon, Fire Emblem and donkey kong just got a new fighter in ultimate!
I also think Impa as a sheik echo would be a good character to reveal as the first Echo! As Impa is probably the most popular Echo Fighter!
(Or just reveal A unique Impa without Sheik?)

 

[DarthEnderX]

So guys, what do you guys think of the state of the Star Fox franchise? What's the future look like?

DK is at least getting ports and F-Zero finally got a game.

Is Star Fox just **** outta luck?

I really wish we could get a port of StarFox Zero with the terrible Wii U controls stripped out.

Same deal as Kid Icarus Uprising actually.

 

[Dinoman96]

Personally, while I would prefer continuing off of Assault, I think what they'll do is use Zero as a new launching point and continue the story from there. It's the newest timeline and doesn't have any baggage left behind like with Command's multiple endings, so they would have more freedom to take the story in whatever direction they want to go.

From a marketing standpoint, I honestly don't think Zero really works as a new jumping point either because, despite technically being the newest game in the series, it was also one of Nintendo's biggest critical and commercial flubs in recently history; it's also nearly 10 years old and forever trapped on a platform no one owned. At that point, you may as well just advertise it as a direct sequel to Star Fox 64 instead, considering that's the version of the story people actually know and like and is also readily available on Switch through NSO.

That, or yet another reboot of some kind.

 

[Mamboo07]

I also think DK is coming back with an actual new game sooner than later.

I found out that an open-world Donkey Kong game for Switch by Vicarious Visions was reportedly scrapped.

 

[fogbadge]

So guys, what do you guys think of the state of the Star Fox franchise? What's the future look like?

DK is at least getting ports and F-Zero finally got a game.

Is Star Fox just **** outta luck?

well considering I was the only person on earth who seemed to like star fox zero i the series is as you said **** outta luck

 

[Sucumbio]

So guys, what do you guys think of the state of the Star Fox franchise? What's the future look like?

DK is at least getting ports and F-Zero finally got a game.

Is Star Fox just **** outta luck?

I want a new Star Fox Adventures. But I don't feel too confident. Missing an entire generation with the Switch just feels like a death knell.

 

[Dinoman96]

imo I think what Star Fox could use at this point in time is something on the level of F-Zero 99, like maybe not a battle royale specifically but just a downloadable and low stake, low budget experimental thing. I just think if it wants to re-establish itself, it needs to start off small before doing bigger budget stuff like Zero again.

 

[BritishGuy54]

Re: Waluigi

I think he could either be one of the first or last characters revealed.

 

[Simnm]

Re: M-rated series

One thing to keep an eye on is this, that they're apparently teasing Scorpion coming to Multiversus.

For one, despite having very little hope for him when it comes to Smash, I hope this helps dispel the argument that for some reason he can't be toned down. Though he already has been before, so idk people will probably still come up with some mental gymnastics as to why this doesn't count.

But also, they do list the franchise of the character in Multiversus. Which is T. So let's see what they do if Scorpion does truly arrive.

But smash is an e10 not T...
I presume referncing m rated series raises your rating at least to a T

 

[BritishGuy54]

Re: M-rated series

One thing to keep an eye on is this, that they're apparently teasing Scorpion coming to Multiversus.

For one, despite having very little hope for him when it comes to Smash, I hope this helps dispel the argument that for some reason he can't be toned down. Though he already has been before, so idk people will probably still come up with some mental gymnastics as to why this doesn't count.

But also, they do list the franchise of the character in Multiversus. Which is T. So let's see what they do if Scorpion does truly arrive.

The original post details this as a ‘hint’, not definitively happening. We should wait until we get news from an official source.

 

[Louie G.]

So guys, what do you guys think of the state of the Star Fox franchise? What's the future look like?

Oddly I believe Star Fox’s best chance of brand revival may be through Nintendo’s new optimism toward film. Movies and TV are kind of baked into its DNA from Star Wars to Thunderbirds. Miyamoto has never given up on this series and I feel like creating a legit Star Fox movie is something he’d want to do while he still has the chance. He’s the one who seems the most involved with this multimedia initiative anyway, so I think it’s something that could come up and be made as a vanity project with some of that Mario money.

Alternatively, I could eventually see us getting an Assault port or something. Would be kinda random but we’ve heard murmurs of more Gamecube ports for a bit now, and that could be a good one to try and draw some excitement toward again. Especially if they continued the story from there for a sequel, although I think it’s more likely they just soft reboot… again.

But one way or another I don’t think Star Fox will stay dead. It seems likely that every so often it will come back, the question is mostly just will any of these attempts ever stick? Zero just did not have the momentum behind it (surely being stuck on Wii U didn’t help).

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

So guys, what do you guys think of the state of the Star Fox franchise? What's the future look like?

DK is at least getting ports and F-Zero finally got a game.

Is Star Fox just **** outta luck?

I think we'll see the series again, but given the trend of the series being used to show off hardware gimmicks, I don't think we'll see it for an entire other console generation. Maybe we'll see it on the Switch's successor, the Wii U got a Star Fox game super late after all, but that hinges on 1: The Switch's successor having a new gimmick to show off, and/or 2: Them finding an idea to make a Star Fox game that uses Joy Cons in a unique way.

But smash is an e10 not T...
I presume referncing m rated series raises your rating at least to a T

The way people understand it, referencing a series higher than your game's rating make your ratings equal, so Multiversus name dropping Mortal Kombat would change its rating to M. It's also worth noting that while the game has some extremely mature characters, they're all TV, which has the MPA, which probably interacts with the rule strangely if at all.

 

[superprincess]

RE: Pauline

I think drawing parallels to Rosalina here is very misguided. When Rosalina was chosen for Smash 4, she barely had any spinoffs under her belt. What got Sakurai to consider her in the first place was her dynamic with Luma, which means the only game that mattered in his mind was the original Super Mario Galaxy. Her subsequent appearances in more Mario spinoffs and Super Mario 3D World came after she was chosen for Smash 4.

This means that Pauline being included in Mario Kart, Mario Tennis and the like isn't doing her any favors when it comes to Smash. Those games are great for boosting her popularity and relevance, but why would they prompt Sakurai to include her in Smash? She's one of at least 20 characters in those games. They don't make her "special".

Another point against Pauline is that she's never been an "active" character. Granted, SMG Rosalina wasn't active either, and that didn't stop her, but that comparison is false too. She was always shown to be powerful, even though she didn't outright show it. She carried a wand and was shown to be able to levitate and summon force fields. Pauline just sits there, talks to you, and sings a song while dancing (rather constrainedly) in SMO. The only other "passive" NPC that have gotten into Smash as original fighters are Sheik and Zelda, but those two: A) have clear concepts laid out already (ninja/magician) B) are a huge deal in their game of origin. Pauline's side-story in Odyssey is more of a fun distraction, even though the New Donk City festival is a stand out moment.

However, Pauline could offer a chance to bring SMO's mechanics into Smash, which Sakurai could find interesting. This is veering into Rosalina-parallel territory again, but it's a possibility. She was given a huge hat in SMO after all. I don't think she would straight up Capture people, but simple stuff like bouncing on the hat for an extra jump seems realistic. She also has a musical motif, and a very diva-like demeanor, which makes it easier to envision her "dancing" (literally?) on the battlefield. The Minis from the Mario vs DK could be included but I don't know if the moveset would get too busy with that.

Another thing in Pauline's favor is that she's never really had the chance to be considered before. Ultimate's roster was decided in late 2015, before Pauline's reintroduction in SMO. She's a brand new consideration, so we don't know how Sakurai feels about her. Characters like Toad and Geno had their chance but were passed up multiple times before, but Pauline hasn't even had the chance to be considered yet. We don't know if she will be, but so far, it's a plus for all we know.

Despite liking her a lot, I'm still on team "Pauline's unlikely". The competition is simply too stiff, and she is a character I find hard to envision, both from my perspective and (hypothetically) Sakurai's. I feel like he gravitates towards characters with an enticing hook or gimmick, that have an interesting silhouette and can be easily recognizable from their movements. Pauline was quite literally designed to be a generic human lady.

Maybe she'll have to make her Mario Party debut first...

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Yeah, the more I think about it, the more I'm convinced Pauline straight up isn't happening.

1. Her recent appearances aren't enough to even get her considered.
2. Geno and Waluigi have more push, and Toad has way more relevance.
3. If you wanted a pick to shake things up, other characters have much stronger themes to build off of.
4. Her design restricts the movement of her legs.

 

[Garteam]

So guys, what do you guys think of the state of the Star Fox franchise? What's the future look like?

DK is at least getting ports and F-Zero finally got a game.

Is Star Fox just **** outta luck?

The biggest issue confronting Star Fox right now is that it has no champion in Nintendo's upper management to promote the franchise. Traditionally, that's been Miyamoto. However, he seems a lot more focused on expanding the Mario brand and working on Pikmin. I have to imagine he still feels burned by Zero to some degree, given how tied he was to that game. Zero being a colossal failure definitely isn't helping attract new talent to Star Fox, either.

I think Louie G. is on the right track with the series' future being in other mediums. Star Fox was iconic and important enough to Nintendo's brand that many Millennials and some of Gen Z have some familiarity with the franchise and space operas are still semi-popular, making it a good choice for movies and TV. Nintendo should really just pick up A Fox in Space and make it into a full series.

 

[Gengar84]

The biggest issue confronting Star Fox right now is that it has no champion in Nintendo's upper management to promote the franchise. Traditionally, that's been Miyamoto. However, he seems a lot more focused on expanding the Mario brand and working on Pikmin. I have to imagine he still feels burned by Zero to some degree, given how tied he was to that game. Zero being a colossal failure definitely isn't helping attract new talent to Star Fox, either.

I think Louie G. is on the right track with the series' future being in other mediums. Star Fox was iconic and important enough to Nintendo's brand that many Millennials and some of Gen Z have some familiarity with the franchise and space operas are still semi-popular, making it a good choice for movies and TV. Nintendo should really just pick up A Fox in Space and make it into a full series.

I’d ideally want something a little more upbeat and lighthearted than A Fox in Space. I feel like that series takes itself too seriously most of the time and forgets to just have fun. Still an interesting watch and really impressive for a fan project but it’s not the direction I’d like to see in an official series. I think a mix of lighthearted moments with more serious action scenes like in the games would be better. That’s just me though and it’s cool if others have a different opinion.

 

[Dinoman96]

Yeah, A Fox in Space is really cool and a fantastic fan passion project, but I highly doubt Nintendo would want an official Star Fox media adaptation to be presented as a slow paced and gritty Adult Swim-esque thriller type. I imagine what we got with The Battle Begins is how they'd want Star Fox to be presented as:

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I think I do now have a good idea of who's more/less likely.

• Geno's the most likely since he has notable fan appeal, and a clear base as a gunner to work a move set from. He does have the issue of being 3rd party, but with 4 SquareEnix related characters on the board, and the Super Mario RPG remake putting more eyes on Geno, I think this is the first time that issue can be overcome in favor of the strenghts of the desicion.
• The very close second possibility is a lesser character intended to add variety to the newcomers. This could be a mage like Kamek (though he might be considered a Yoshi character) who plays around with minion summoning and buffing, or King Boo, who would use ghostly shenanigans to gain the upper hand in battle.
• A fairly distant third from that is Waluigi. He's got a lot of fan demand, but no easily definable themes to build a move set off of. He could easily become the next Ridley; a character fans want, but the director doesn't know what to do with for several games.
• Last is (Captain) Toad, who's the most important addition, but has the same major problem as Waluigi on top of having proportions that make it difficult to design fighting animations around.
• Pauline doesn't have high fan demand, series relevance, or a strong theme to build a move set around. She's not getting in.

 

[Will]

So guys, what do you guys think of the state of the Star Fox franchise? What's the future look like?

Krystal could maybe get in. Big maybe.

 

[superprincess]

I think I do now have a good idea of who's more/less likely.

• Geno's the most likely since he has notable fan appeal, and a clear base as a gunner to work a move set from. He does have the issue of being 3rd party, but with 4 SquareEnix related characters on the board, and the Super Mario RPG remake putting more eyes on Geno, I think this is the first time that issue can be overcome in favor of the strenghts of the desicion.
• The very close second possibility is a lesser character intended to add variety to the newcomers. This could be a mage like Kamek (though he might be considered a Yoshi character) who plays around with minion summoning and buffing, or King Boo, who would use ghostly shenanigans to gain the upper hand in battle.
• A fairly distant third from that is Waluigi. He's got a lot of fan demand, but no easily definable themes to build a move set off of. He could easily become the next Ridley; a character fans want, but the director doesn't know what to do with for several games.
• Last is (Captain) Toad, who's the most important addition, but has the same major problem as Waluigi on top of having proportions that make it difficult to design fighting animations around.
• Pauline doesn't have high fan demand, series relevance, or a strong theme to build a move set around. She's not getting in.

No, Geno absolutely isn't the most likely Super Mario newcomer for Smash 6. He is inherently in a disadvantageous spot, competing with both his fellow Super Mario characters and other characters owned by Square. That means that both Nintendo and Square would have to prioritize Geno (a very niche character) over big names from both Mario and Square Enix franchises. Also, in a game that's pretty likely to have major cuts, especially from 3rd parties, I don't expect Geno to take precedent over Sephiroth or Sora.

No, Waluigi isn't "a distant third". He's a frontrunner after Ridley, K. Rool and Banjo got in. He's a much bigger name, much more requested, and yes, would have a funner moveset. Geno would just be a magical gunner. Y'all like to pretend spinoff characters have no moveset potential, but Waluigi has a very clear motif; he's a cheater, he's desperate for the spotlight and is willing to do anything to be in it. Also, if anyone is fit to represent Mario spinoffs, it is the character who was literally birthed from & characterized around them. Not to mention Waluigi's proportions are super unique and would lend themselves to all sorts of funny animations and attacks.

King Boo and Kamek over Waluigi.... I'm not even gonna comment on that. Nothing against those two, I'd actually enjoy seeing them, but it's not happening.