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Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

SMAASH! Puppy

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The weird thing about this argument is that Takamaru wasn't passed on because he was Japan only. He was passed on for being obscure in general, which is probably worse.

...people not wanting to notice that every single Smash game has added first-parties old enough to be in the first game.
That's because they're aiming for iconic characters from big franchises. Characters like that tend to be pretty darn old. Steve is probably the youngest of them, but even then he's an outlier. The only other young-ish 3rd party on his level is Sora (2002). It's not the be-all-end-all, as there are exceptions to the rule with Bayonetta (a 3rd party that Nintendo kind of unofficially adopted), Joker (a new character from an old series that recently got a mainstream hit), and Banjo & Kazooie (who got in because of Super Smash Bros. fan demand), but it's enough to say it's probably because of the lasting impact on the gaming scene these older characters have rather than the fact that the series are retro specifically.
 

TheQuester

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I don't think they're going back to some protracted showing. For one, I don't think they need to, schedule-wise. I think Smash 6 can probably be out by 2026, and 2025 will be dedicated to the Switch 2's launch window lineup. So I think Smash 6's pre-release promotion will last less than a year.
DOJO was also techically less than a year....It started in late May 2007 and the game releeased on late January 2008 in Japan, yeah there were a few secret characters and stuff after release, but that was bc there wasn't a worldwide release back then, i feel like they would just drop all the secret fighters together after a week nowdays in a big update of the site.
If Smash 6 is revealed in early 2026 and drops in late 2026 it can easily be done.
 

Wonder Smash

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"Surprise characters" just means characters that fans don't usually expect, as in not the hero/heroine characters people tend to talk about. That doesn't mean they can't be retro characters. Sakurai even says he doesn't focus on the surprise element that much because it eventually wears off after the character is revealed. It would be kind of silly to think that a character can't represent a certain past era like the NES just because people didn't expect them.
 
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TheQuester

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Maybe, but she was partially chosen because no one expected her.

Then again, at this rate half the newcomer choices are going to be "surprising" solely because people forgot even Smash 4's base game newcomer selection wasn't something that can be entirely summarized as "Here's who was too new for the last game".
I agree.
I think if we get 12 newcomers or so, we're definitely going to have some surprising characters not just Waluigi and Recent and Predictable Picks, if we have like 6 newcomers again, i wouldn't expect many suprise picks, through, except maybe the 3rd party character.
 
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Guynamednelson

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That's because they're aiming for iconic characters from big franchises.
Well yeah, but they're not aiming solely for characters Smash fans consider realistic. If they were, the next Smash isn't going to have any first-party newcomers period.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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Well yeah, but they're not aiming solely for characters Smash fans consider realistic. If they were, the next Smash isn't going to have any first-party newcomers period.
That's beside the point. The point was that they weren't picking 3rd party characters because they were retro, it was because of how big they were.

It's also a bit disingenuous. People were focused on 3rd party characters during the DLC, but now that that's over they're thinking about 1st parties a lot more. Options like Bandana Waddle Dee, Officer Howard, Waluigi, a Pokémon, are all considered to be fairly likely, and a bunch more options are at least considered to be plausible. Honestly the outlook is almost the opposite, with base rosters tending to have less 3rd parties than 1st parties by quite a lot.
 

Guynamednelson

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with base rosters tending to have less 3rd parties than 1st parties by quite a lot.
Yeah, I get that. The Smash fanbase doesn't, they're still too focused on what was added in the Fighters' Passes to remember that A. there are a lot more first-parties in the base game, and B. said first-parties aren't just who was too new for the last game.
 

Louie G.

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Honestly the outlook is almost the opposite, with base rosters tending to have less 3rd parties than 1st parties by quite a lot.
Yeah, I honestly can't even place which new third parties are widely considered "frontrunners" because the conversation is either kind of scattered or looking beyond base roster and factoring in the odds of future DLC. Like for example, I think Master Chief has a good chance of being playable eventually but he has like a 0% chance of being playable on the base roster. [Insert second Sonic rep] and Chun-Li are pretty safe for most but otherwise hard to pin down.

The most agreeable one might be Monster Hunter? There was a bit of conflict about their viability last game, but I haven't heard that argument come up lately. All in all they're predicted often and have seen virtually no pushback. Hayabusa too I suppose, but I think his sort of blueball status during Ultimate's speculation has made people more dubious of his chances. I do think he suits the role of a base game newcomer more than he does DLC, so it may be valuable to start on a fresh slate, but it's hard to call him a sure thing. Outside of that, I don't see anyone else come up consistently enough, and in the context of base game, to be as confident a talking point as Waluigi or BWD or whatever.

In fact, a lot of Ultimate frontrunners seem to have fallen off quite a bit. Out of those I think Doomguy has been the most persistent, while Dante and even Crash have not been getting nearly the same kind of discussion lately. But I'm curious how this will pick up once the game is actually revealed and the conversation expands beyond the diehard obsessive fans like us.
 
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Sucumbio

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5 3rdparties in base game?
Do you think they'll focus on 3rd parties more? Just curious
Uh no.. well I wasn't thinking base or dlc when I answered I was just thinking newcomers. I'm thinking all 5 of my 3rd party predictions are DLC in fact, with 1 of those 1st parties also being DLC, namely Noah/Mio.

Re: retro vs surprise vs Japan Only

This is why we can't have nice things. Let's not gatekeep a character just because it doesn't fit some fan-rule. Even Sakurai has changed his mind over the years (Ridley). There's no reason to assume Takamaru isn't plausible. He's an assist, his game is available and oh yeah Japan is the country f origin for Smash anyway so why not put in a popular-in-Japan character. Same with Sukapon really there's just no reason to downplay their possible inclusion. It just seems unnecessarily boarish.
 

Louie G.

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Japanese skewed characters like Takamaru or Sukapon (or Lip?), once upon a time, were reasonable exclusions since overseas audiences couldn't feasibly be introduced to the characters. Nowadays with NSO service, as well as their presence in Smash at all as Assist Trophies (in Lip's case, a costume), I think you can get away with it. It may still be safer for Sakurai to go for something with more obvious nostalgic appeal like Excitebike, but at least the greater obstacles in place that prevented these characters from being added in the past have eased up.

I think they have pretty easy selling points as well. For Takamaru you can just say "hey, this game is kinda like Zelda's forgotten sibling!" And for Sukapon it's as simple as "this was the mascot for Nintendo's first ever fighting game!" So the value and appeal are at least simple to get across. It's on a much different scale, but I think about how quickly much of the community was able to be won over by Terry simply because Sakurai did a good job explaining why he's important. Maybe the success of some characters less familiar to the Smash community will give Sakurai confidence to take further risks.
 

Guynamednelson

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Even Sakurai has changed his mind over the years (Ridley)
Well it helped that "Ridley's too big" never shut down Ridley discussion as much as "(X Nintendo character) is not big/new enough" shuts down discussion of pretty much every Nintendo character who's still not playable yet except maybe Waluigi and Meowscarada.
 
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Among Waddle Dees

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Well it helped that "Ridley's too big" never shut down Ridley discussion as much as "(X Nintendo character) is not big/new enough" shuts down discussion of pretty much every Nintendo character who's still not playable yet except maybe Waluigi and Meowscarada.
If you want to be technical, the "too big" argument was enough of a shutdown at the time, for how smaller the speculation was. The ratio is about the same, but the scope of discussion is way higher.
 

Freduardo

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If you want to be technical, the "too big" argument was enough of a shutdown at the time, for how smaller the speculation was. The ratio is about the same, but the scope of discussion is way higher.
I mean.... Ridley was frequently the support thread with the most replies during speculation for 4 and Ultimate until the point of confirmation.

So it was never that shut down.
 

smashkirby

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I was thinking about retro characters...which ones do you guys think are the most likely ones?
Ayumi Tachibana maybe? iirc she had a remake (i think?) for the switch.
She could use her suitcase to fight, but might be tricky to make her work.
Hmm... I assume Ayumi would have had her chances raised a fairly good deal after her remakes came out, right?

Any retro characters that have improved chances since ultimate?
As I just said, I feel as though Ayumi's in a better position NOW than she was back in 2001, at the very least. The only other retro I see having even a ghost of a chance is Excitebiker and MAYBE Takamaru.

I mean, I'm good with ANYONE, so...

I know this is a copout answer, but pretty much all of them. With how little space there was in Ultimate, I feel like characters like that were not of especially high priority or strong consideration. Sure, characters like Simon or K. Rool appealed to a nostalgic sensibility but I'm referring to more out there picks like Takamaru, Mach Rider, Ayumi, whatever who would be kinda hard to justify when trying to optimize only 6 or 7 unique newcomer slots.

If we return to 12+ newcomers next game, we have more wiggle room to explore lesser expected or requested picks and pull into the less active corridors of Nintendo history. Maybe we could have brought Excitebiker into Ultimate, but whose place would that have taken? With two of the highest ballot fan requests, the two most important contemporary Nintendo characters, a third party guest and the obligatory new Pokemon you've already run out of opportunities. And maybe a retro pick could have taken Plant's place, but that was deliberately chosen to be a character everyone knows, so that easy to understand novelty might be lost the more obscure or retro you get. Bottom line, the concept of "retro" characters are in much better shape next time.
FWIW? I don't see this a "copout answer", personally. In fact, I'd go as far as to say that 'Everyone Is Here!' being a thing is probably the best way to describe how/why 'out-there' characters in the vein of W.F.T. or Mr. G&W went added to Smash Ultimate.

I know I'm exaggerating, but in terms of the roster of video game characters I want as newcomers to the Super Smash Bros. series, I went from 90 to 120. But I know not all of them will come, and some will never come as newcomers. Besides, I made it more like this to pass the time. Here is the roster with these characters:
Seriously, I REALLY like the selection of characters you've got here! Without question, I'd be very interested to see how a lot of these folks would play in Smash, for sure! If I may ask though, are you only picking Harry's operator and NOT Harry himself?
 

Kirbeh

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Re: Retro/Obscure/Region specific characters

Honestly I feel like this is a "**** the casuals" moment for me. Having one character out of a dozen newcomers that a general audience might not be familiar with shouldn't be seen as a problem. Having a few deep cuts or "surprise" characters helps flesh out the roster and make it more interesting imo.

The wider audience may not care for these more niche picks but isn't that why there's only a few of them anyway?

I don't think they need to have a big focus placed on these sorts of characters but it honestly feels like outside these boards, the more general player base has developed a sort of aversion to smaller IP.
 

Ivander

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Characters shouldn't be rejected just because not many would recognise them. It's still very possible for an obscure character to still win over those who don't know them with their portrayal, characterisation and coolness factor. Characters like Captain Falcon or Morrigan or Shuma-Gorath didn't get their popularity suddenly overnight before their reveal. They got their popularity for being cool-looking characters that got people interested in who they were. And it's still in effect today. After all, look at the amount of attention the LttP version of Zelda got after her reveal. There are alot more people who are more open to new things than some people think.
And it gives a much needed variety in expectations. If you simply give only what people expect, you're not going to knock people off their rockers much if they always get what they expect. Showing people that more obscure characters and series are as likely as more recent ones keeps people on their toes and it brings hope to fans of those more obscure characters/series and joy if they do get in.

I'll always be vouching for more obscure series to get in Smash Bros, because obscure characters getting in is by no means a bad thing. They can bring cool or fun movesets, they can bring in cool things from their series in terms of items, stages and whatnot and they can get the interest of people who don't know about them and want to learn about them. They can do all that just as much as more popular and more known characters/series can.
 
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TheQuester

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This is why we can't have nice things. Let's not gatekeep a character just because it doesn't fit some fan-rule. Even Sakurai has changed his mind over the years (Ridley). There's no reason to assume Takamaru isn't plausible. He's an assist, his game is available and oh yeah Japan is the country f origin for Smash anyway so why not put in a popular-in-Japan character. Same with Sukapon really there's just no reason to downplay their possible inclusion. It just seems unnecessarily boarish.
I don’t get why people still gatekeep when we have… a potted plant playable, and as you said, Ridley—a character he changed his mind about.

I think it’s fair to say that Sakurai will put whoever he feels would make a good character at the moment. Regardless of fan rules, if Sakurai thinks Takamaru or, hell, even Sheldon from Splatoon would be good additions, then he’ll add them if he can fit them into the game plan.

Do people think Sakurai has a list of rules and can only add characters that fit the checkboxes in the rule list? Like, ‘Oh, I was considering Takamaru in Smash 6, but this rule in the notepad of my MacBook says that retro reps have to have a deep story with them. I guess I’d had to scrap him.’"
 
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Nabbitfan730

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Here is a thought.

If Toby Fox's visit to Sakurai's house did entail possible spots for Smash 6, who would be a more fitting/likely choice? Should be Sans from Undertale or should they represent something recent with Deltarune with one of new reps.

Especially with the progress of Deltarune chapters. If the project plan is being written rn then my likely bet would be Sans but maybe Toby has different ideas
 
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Cheese&Chips

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the more general player base has developed a sort of aversion to smaller IP.
Likely a consequence of Smash having so many newcomers who 'broke the internet'. When you've shown the world that you're willing to add Sonic, Solid Snake, Cloud, Ryu, Joker, Simon Belmont, Terry Bogard, Banjo & Kazooie, Minecraft Steve, Sora, Sephiroth and more to your roster, the wider gaming community is likely going to be disappointed when you follow it up with Starfy or Fire Emblem protagonist No 8.

It's not rational, but it's just the way things are.
 
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Guynamednelson

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Likely a consequence of Smash having so many newcomers who 'broke the internet'. When you've shown the world that you're willing to add Sonic, Solid Snake, Cloud, Ryu, Joker, Simon Belmont, Terry Bogard, Banjo & Kazooie, Minecraft Steve, Sora, Sephiroth and more to your roster, the wider gaming community is likely going to be disappointed when you follow it up with Starfy or Fire Emblem protagonist No 8.
Well too bad for them, if we're not getting more DLC for SSBU, we're not getting more internet breaking characters for a while. Except maybe two at best.
 
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PeridotGX

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Here is a thought.

If Toby Fox's visit to Sakurai's house did entail possible spots for Smash 6, who would be a more fitting/likely choice? Should be Sans from Undertale or should they represent something recent with Deltarune with one of new reps.

Especially with the progress of Deltarune chapters. If the project plan is being written rn then my likely bet would be Sans but maybe Toby has different ideas
I made a tier list for this ages ago
1719006471187.png
 

Louie G.

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If Toby Fox's visit to Sakurai's house did entail possible spots for Smash 6, who would be a more fitting/likely choice? Should be Sans from Undertale or should they represent something recent with Deltarune with one of new reps.
It should be Sans. Ultimately there's a reason he was chosen as the Mii Costume - I can understand some people being hesitant of his efficiency in representing the game conceptually, but on paper he is by far the most popular and highly requested character. I think the disparity here might stem more from what you value first and foremost. I personally value Sans' dynamic personality, his existing moveset potential, the thought of him interacting with other characters. Someone less character focused may instead want someone like Frisk to represent the series' core mechanics - a more deliberate translation of the gameplay, rather than character. The thought of that is cool, but I don't think we always need that kind of representation to take precedent. Other suggestions such as Papyrus or Undyne are not bad, but if we got one of the supporting characters I don't know why it wouldn't just be Sans.

As far as Deltarune goes, I have my doubts it will be complete by the time the next game releases. And frankly, I'd be a little frustrated if they went for a Deltarune pick over Undertale. We're coming up on a decade of Undertale's popularity and legacy - Deltarune has been wonderful so far, but I'd like for the complete package to be able to simmer a little bit before we jump to action on that. And with the hesitation to create merch of the Lightners, I wonder if Toby would even feel comfortable making someone like Kris or Susie playable at all. I think there might be baggage here that we don't quite understand yet.
 
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Cheese&Chips

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Well too bad for them, if we're not getting more DLC for SSBU, we're not getting more internet breaking characters for a while. Except maybe two at best.
I imagine people like that will be waiting for as long as it takes for the next Smash game to come out. Regardless of who's in charge of the next game, regardless of whether it's a reboot or not, there's no way the next game won't try and attempt to have at least one 'internet breaking' newcomer. They'd be stupid not to go that route after doing it for every Smash game since Brawl.

Whether it'll be Doom Guy or Dante or Fortnite or Rayman or Crash Bandicoot or Sans or Geno or TF2 Heavy or someone else entirely is anyone's guess. However, someone will get in.
 

Stratos

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Seriously, I REALLY like the selection of characters you've got here! Without question, I'd be very interested to see how a lot of these folks would play in Smash, for sure! If I may ask though, are you only picking Harry's operator and NOT Harry himself?
Just because I think Harry is big, I was thinking of his operator as a newcomer and Harry as his Final Smash based on how Piranha Plant is a playable character and Petey Piranha is Piranha Plant's Final Smash. Although on the other hand, I would say better Harry himself as a newcomer and for his Final Smash maybe he gets giant and gives giant punches.
 
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Guynamednelson

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there's no way the next game won't try and attempt to have at least one 'internet breaking' newcomer.
Well yeah, of course it will. But only one or two since it's only DLC where they go all-in on third-parties.

Also do you really think Geno is as big as any of those third-parties you mentioned I mean come on he was practically grandfathered into modern speculation just by not being owned by Nintendo
 

SharkLord

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Yeah, I honestly can't even place which new third parties are widely considered "frontrunners" because the conversation is either kind of scattered or looking beyond base roster and factoring in the odds of future DLC. Like for example, I think Master Chief has a good chance of being playable eventually but he has like a 0% chance of being playable on the base roster. [Insert second Sonic rep] and Chun-Li are pretty safe for most but otherwise hard to pin down.

The most agreeable one might be Monster Hunter? There was a bit of conflict about their viability last game, but I haven't heard that argument come up lately. All in all they're predicted often and have seen virtually no pushback. Hayabusa too I suppose, but I think his sort of blueball status during Ultimate's speculation has made people more dubious of his chances. I do think he suits the role of a base game newcomer more than he does DLC, so it may be valuable to start on a fresh slate, but it's hard to call him a sure thing. Outside of that, I don't see anyone else come up consistently enough, and in the context of base game, to be as confident a talking point as Waluigi or BWD or whatever.

In fact, a lot of Ultimate frontrunners seem to have fallen off quite a bit. Out of those I think Doomguy has been the most persistent, while Dante and even Crash have not been getting nearly the same kind of discussion lately. But I'm curious how this will pick up once the game is actually revealed and the conversation expands beyond the diehard obsessive fans like us.
Adding to this, most base game spec sticks with the old mindset of characters with decent ties to Nintendo systems, whereas more "mature" and/or PlayStation/Xbox-associated characters are assumed to be DLC material. Partially because most of the Sony/Xbox-associated characters like Cloud and Joker were DLC, partially because big surprises like that are bound to draw in the attention that DLC needs to sell itself.

Monster Hunter is considered a safer bet for the base game because it just checks most of the boxes. It's always been big in Japan and picked up in the West with World, it already has content in Smash with Rathalos, and Rise sold like eight million copies on the Switch alone. They fit the bill for both Nintendo-centric rosters and more general "big names" rosters, so they wouldn't be too out of place in a base game release.
 

TheQuester

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Re: Retro/Obscure/Region specific characters

Honestly I feel like this is a "**** the casuals" moment for me. Having one character out of a dozen newcomers that a general audience might not be familiar with shouldn't be seen as a problem. Having a few deep cuts or "surprise" characters helps flesh out the roster and make it more interesting imo.

The wider audience may not care for these more niche picks but isn't that why there's only a few of them anyway?

I don't think they need to have a big focus placed on these sorts of characters but it honestly feels like outside these boards, the more general player base has developed a sort of aversion to smaller IP.
Do casuals even hate characters from IPs they don't know as some people claim in forums? My casual friends don't think anything bad of characters they don't know, On the contrary my casual friends mains Little Mac and another mains Joker, and they never heard of Punch-Out or Persona before Smash Bros.
Some people act like adding Dillon from Rolling Western, DeMille from Tomato Adventure or Beat from Jet Set Radio is going to make casuals return copies of the game lol.
Most likely they just won't care or maybe some of them end up liking them.
 

fogbadge

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So, Mario Kart has several stages.

Paper Mario has a stage.

Do you think Mario Party could get a stage? I think it's the biggest Mario spinoff without something.
I’ve been hoping for one for a few games now. still do even if I’ve lost a bit of interest in the series. Question is which board?
 

Louie G.

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Mario Party SHOULD have a stage, but I can't say whether I expect one or not. If they haven't done it by now, I just question what would finally get them to pull the trigger. It's a long running series with a dozen entries. Then again, the Switch will have had three Mario Party titles under its belt - so it's been a fairly prominent series through the last console generation, and a consistently successful one as well. Just have to wonder what the "hook" would be for this stage, would the characters move across the board at all? Would they be thrust into minigames like Warioware? I'm sure it would have to be pretty wacky.

Also suppose we get a playable Waluigi, I think a Mario Party stage would be a good thing to accompany him.
 
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Gorgonzales

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So, Mario Kart has several stages.

Paper Mario has a stage.

Do you think Mario Party could get a stage? I think it's the biggest Mario spinoff without something.
I actively want a Mario Party stage but if they settle for something like "Grass, but with spaces!" like MP 9 or 10's starter boards I'll be sorely disappointed.
I want them to go for a board with unique theming like Western Land, Goomba's Greedy Gala, or Clockwork Castle.

Mario Party SHOULD have a stage, but I can't say whether I expect one or not. If they haven't done it by now, I just question what would finally get them to pull the trigger. It's a long running series with a dozen entries. Then again, the Switch will have had three Mario Party titles under its belt - so it's been a fairly prominent series through the last console generation, and a consistently successful one as well. Just have to wonder what the "hook" would be for this stage, would the characters move across the board at all? Would they be thrust into minigames like Warioware? I'm sure it would have to be pretty wacky.

Also suppose we get a playable Waluigi, I think a Mario Party stage would be a good thing to accompany him.
There's a lot you could do with a Mario Party stage. I'm imagining periodically-appearing happening spaces that activate when stepped on, triggering certain events or slightly changing the layout by adding / removing soft platforms or hazards. Dice blocks could also appear as items that cause a different effect depending on what you roll. One more thing is that the player in last place could be automatically gifted an item as a nod to the final five turns events in Mario Party.
 

SPEN18

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So, Mario Kart has several stages.

Paper Mario has a stage.

Do you think Mario Party could get a stage? I think it's the biggest Mario spinoff without something.
Honestly I was kinda thinking about stages for Mario spinoffs the other day and Party was like the one I had circled. But idk what exactly the stage would be.
 
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