Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[dream1ng]

Something to consider though in the context of Ultimate Vs being in the next game is based game Vs DLC. So negotiations is still an important factor.

I don't think that changes much. Firstly, nothing is saying Steve has to be base. I imagine he probably wouldn't be. But if Nintendo preferred it, MS would either accept the new terms, so problem solved, or counter with staying DLC, in which they already have a precedent of consensus on.

Without EiH but for a roster of 89 vets plus newcomers, which I wholeheartedly doubt will be attempted, there's not going to be a strong imperative to get all vets into base. Especially ones more conducive to DLC like Steve.

Banjo just seems to have less hurdles.

I don't think this is a reliable way to judge who returns. Nintendo and Sakurai don't shy away from hurdles when it comes to third-parties.

Like, I suspect Terry will have fewer hurdles than Cloud but I think Cloud is likelier to come back because he's Cloud.

 

[Noipoi]

Out of all the third parties (Aside from the holy trinity of Sonic, Mega Man and PAC-Man) I feel like both Banjo and Steve are among the safest.

 

[Louie G.]

Out of all the third parties (Aside from the holy trinity of Sonic, Mega Man and PAC-Man) I feel like both Banjo and Steve are among the safest.

I personally feel like Ryu and Simon are the next step over from those three, and maybe Cloud somewhere in there and then proooobably those two.

Working with a western studio is presumably always gonna be just a little more work due to the language barrier, and Konami handed over a slew of new content for base Ultimate so I think they'd be next up to bat following the big three with Castlevania crossing over with an alarming amount of other games lately and just... kinda having that same feeling I get from Mega Man.

And then Cloud Strife is Cloud Strife and presumably too popular to kick to the curb like that. Which is probably in a similar camp to Banjo and Steve, who you could probably say the same thing about for different reasons. I have a feeling Square Enix and Microsoft are going to operate on pretty similar terms, where we'll see cooperation as long as something new is assured later. So we'll probably see a healthy serving of new content from them both.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

It's going to be hard to convince me of Cloud and Sephiroth not being a "Final Fantasy VII Package" deal for DLC.
While not as "stingy" as people would meme about early Ultimate, it can't be understated how having base content felt more like the bare obligation for Square-Enix on account of Everyone Is Here and DLC is really where they went ham. As is usually the case with collabs involving them.

 

[Noipoi]

I personally feel like Ryu and Simon are the next step over from those three, and maybe Cloud somewhere in there and then proooobably those two.

You’re probably right about these guys I just wasn’t thinking about them at the time.

Woopsy toodle

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I personally feel like Ryu and Simon are the next step over from those three, and maybe Cloud somewhere in there and then proooobably those two.

Working with a western studio is presumably always gonna be just a little more work due to the language barrier, and Konami handed over a slew of new content for base Ultimate so I think they'd be next up to bat following the big three with Castlevania crossing over with an alarming amount of other games lately and just... kinda having that same feeling I get from Mega Man.

And then Cloud Strife is Cloud Strife and presumably too popular to kick to the curb like that. Which is probably in a similar camp to Banjo and Steve, who you could probably say the same thing about for different reasons. I have a feeling Square Enix and Microsoft are going to operate on pretty similar terms, where we'll see cooperation as long as something new is assured later. So we'll probably see a healthy serving of new content from them both.

What about Snake?

 

[dream1ng]

And then Cloud Strife is Cloud Strife and presumably too popular to kick to the curb like that. Which is probably in a similar camp to Banjo and Steve, who you could probably say the same thing about for different reasons. I have a feeling Square Enix and Microsoft are going to operate on pretty similar terms, where we'll see cooperation as long as something new is assured later. So we'll probably see a healthy serving of new content from them both.

Alternatively, no fighters from Square or Microsoft have to show up in base. DLC is only going to become an increasing part of Smash, which will probably prompt more of it to be planned out before the game releases. If it's just easier to work with some companies if they're DLC, that may be the path they take.

 

[Louie G.]

It's going to be hard to convince me of Cloud and Sephiroth not being a "Final Fantasy VII Package" deal for DLC.
While not as "stingy" as people would meme about early Ultimate, it can't be understated how having base content felt more like the bare obligation for Square-Enix on account of Everyone Is Here and DLC is really where they went ham. As is usually the case with collabs.

Nonsense, we'll get Cloud and Sephiroth in base game with two songs ripped straight from FF7 again and then we'll get Tifa with all the content that was cut!

Jokes aside, I hope Sephiroth can return under some condition or another. He's definitely one of my favorite designed newcomers and really raised the bar in terms of how I want Smash to incorporate villains and big, intimidating boss characters. I'm not expecting him in base but I'd admittedly buy him again.

What about Snake?

I'm undecided, theoretically Snake and Simon are pretty equivalent in merit and practicality. I just see Castlevania crossing over with everything lately, and it felt like the amount of content it was able to bring to the table was more vast than what we saw for Metal Gear. Which didn't expand too far past what we had in Brawl. So that's why I gave Simon the nod in particular but I haven't figured out how I feel about Snake yet.

Alternatively, no fighters from Square or Microsoft have to show up in base. DLC is only going to become an increasing part of Smash, which will probably prompt more of it to be planned out before the game releases. If it's just easier to work with some companies if they're DLC, that may be the path they take.

Maybe. I think that depends on how much DLC they're willing to make, because I would imagine they would want to save space for new characters too. Bringing back Banjo, Steve, Cloud, Sephiroth, Hero as DLC leaves their options pretty limited to expand into other characters like say, Master Chief or 2B. Not that they all need to return, but some of them obviously would.

We don't have much precedent for the conditions that Microsoft will choose to operate under, so I'm hesitant to put them in that same bubble as SE just yet - especially with the upcoming change in direction for the company, and how willing they've been to add content to N64's NSO. The latter point benefiting Banjo specifically more than Steve, but does emphasize my point a bit more. Square Enix has put nothing on there at all.

 

[Megadoomer]

To change the topic somewhat, I've been thinking about third party package deals.

It's really common to hear something like, "Well Sonic is definitely coming back, so Bayonetta and Joker are too." Or perhaps "Mega Man is coming back, so Ryu and Ken are locks."

Do you believe this? Do you believe that one third party veteran makes other from the same company more likely?

I think it depends. Take Sega, for example - I feel like the only reason why Sonic would be removed from Smash would be if third party characters were removed entirely, and Nintendo seems to be invested in the future of Bayonetta as a franchise (they've funded most of the games in the series at this point), but Joker feels like a "Sakurai pick", for the lack of a better word. If Smash gets another director going forward, I don't know if they'd push for Joker's inclusion as hard as Sakurai would.

The only case I could see it being a package deal (at least, assuming that "package deal" means that "every character from the company returns if one of them does") would be Microsoft. Nintendo/Sakurai would already be making a deal with a competing console maker (unless the rumours that I've seen turn out to be true), and both of them are insanely popular picks if Steve's announcement outright breaking Twitter and Banjo and Kazooie coming in second place in the Smash Ballot (apparently; I'm not sure how specific Sakurai's wording was in Japanese, but the translations that I've seen made it sound like he was right behind Sora) are anything to go off of.

 

[dream1ng]

Maybe. I think that depends on how much DLC they're willing to make, because I would imagine they would want to save space for new characters too. Bringing back Banjo, Steve, Cloud, Sephiroth, Hero as DLC leaves their options pretty limited to expand into other characters like say, Master Chief or 2B.

Well Ultimate's DLC was made via a reduced team after the bulk returned to Harada land. Studio S is a permanent team that has likely been made solely to work on Smash, which means an exodus after base won't happen.

So how much DLC are they willing to make? Probably quite a bit, especially given how there's only going to be so many characters they can add pre-release if they rebuild the roster, but through DLC they can add a lot of a vets back who can be staggered with newcomers and create a more frequent release timeframe. While also being a product they can sell for the standard fighter cost yet, on average, be cheaper development-wise than newcomers.

A lot of this next game will probably show up after it releases, given how its development team is now structured, as well as changing trends for games like this which focus on extended support.

We don't have much precedent for the conditions that Microsoft will choose to operate under, so I'm hesitant to put them in that same bubble as SE just yet - especially with the upcoming change in direction for the company, and how willing they've been to add content to N64's NSO. The latter point benefiting Banjo specifically more than Steve, but does emphasize my point a bit more. Square Enix has put nothing on there at all.

I agree but you had them grouped together in the point I responded to. It's entirely possible they'd be fine putting both their vets in base. My point is really for any third-party. If being DLC is far easier, they can just take that approach.

I doubt Nintendo wants to have their hand forced where they agree to add characters as DLC just to get others in base. Being in base isn't that important, it's already going to be full with huge first-parties and the more cooperative third-parties.

 

[7NATOR]

If they do a Long DLC Cycle for the Next Smash game, I have to wonder if they are going heavily tie the DLC to the NSO Expansion like they did with Animal Crossing DLC, cause already the DLC for Ultimate (the Fighter passes) almost costs the same amount as the base game. if they continue with those prices and there is a great deal more focus on DLC than previous games, than the DLC is gonna end up costing more than the actual game, even if it is 70$.

I know Fighting game Players are already used to that already, but it would be a first with Nintendo and Smash fans. I know the quality would be worth it but it is quite an Ask. Having the "Cheaper" option through the NSO Expansion, even if they don't actually own it indefinitely could be apart of increasing subscriptions I think.

 

[dream1ng]

If they do a Long DLC Cycle for the Next Smash game, I have to wonder if they are going heavily tie the DLC to the NSO Expansion like they did with Animal Crossing DLC, cause already the DLC for Ultimate (the Fighter passes) almost costs the same amount as the base game. if they continue with those prices and there is a great deal more focus on DLC than previous games, than the DLC is gonna end up costing more than the actual game, even if it is 70$.

I know Fighting game Players are already used to that already, but it would be a first with Nintendo and Smash fans. I know the quality would be worth it but it is quite an Ask. Having the "Cheaper" option through the NSO Expansion, even if they don't actually own it indefinitely could be apart of increasing subscriptions I think.

Well if they did it with MK and AC then Smash, in theory, seems possible. However, one critical difference is if they did that, they couldn't offer nearly as much back-end profit on the DLC purchases to the third-parties, which would be a problem. At least without giving them a cut from the NSO expansion pack itself, which would become very complicated, and probably be far lower.

What they may do to solve this is offer some selection of first-party-only content to expansion pack holders.

 

[SPEN18]

If they do a Long DLC Cycle for the Next Smash game, I have to wonder if they are going heavily tie the DLC to the NSO Expansion like they did with Animal Crossing DLC, cause already the DLC for Ultimate (the Fighter passes) almost costs the same amount as the base game. if they continue with those prices and there is a great deal more focus on DLC than previous games, than the DLC is gonna end up costing more than the actual game, even if it is 70$.

I know Fighting game Players are already used to that already, but it would be a first with Nintendo and Smash fans. I know the quality would be worth it but it is quite an Ask. Having the "Cheaper" option through the NSO Expansion, even if they don't actually own it indefinitely could be apart of increasing subscriptions I think.

Things could change, but right now I just don't see them bundling Smash DLC with the online service. No, I think they'll want Smash players to subscribe to the online service in order to play matches online, and then pay extra on top of that to get all the characters. Basically, with Smash being so multiplayer-oriented, its players already have incentive to get an online subscription even if it doesn't include the DLC. You could say the same of Kart, but that game reaches a much wider, even more casual-oriented audience that seems to me less likely to subscribe for online compared to Smash's fanbase, and also perhaps less likely to buy extra DLC that's not bundled in with a service. Don't have numbers to back this up, though, just a sense.

Edit: though I could see what was suggested above: first party vets being included with the online service, but newcomers and third parties costing extra.

 

[Pupp135]

I’m a little late for this topic, but I‘m expecting the original 12 to return but wouldn’t be shocked if Jigglypuff was cut. I feel like the developers like highlighting the original 8, Luigi is a gaming all-star, Captain Falcon is the SSB golden child more or less, and I don’t see Mother losing both fighters next entry. While being an original fighter helps Jigglypuff to some degree, I assume it’ll probably return last minute like in Brawl and presumably For (This photo I found on Source Gaming seems to have its data appear by Lucina and Dark Pit, making me guess that it was added later on).

In terms of third parties, the only situations where I see packaged deals are for echoes and maybe Square. I assume that Sega and Namco are not packaged deals given that Sonic and Bayonetta are probably larger priorities than Joker, and Pac-Man is probably a much priority than Kazuya. For Konami, I’d say that Simon and Richter are a packaged deal as Richter is an echo, but I could see Snake being prioritized differently. For Capcom, I wouldn’t necessarily say all three fighters are a packaged deal, but I assume Mega Man and Ryu are two of the five safest unique third parties, and I assume Ken will be a packaged deal with Ryu. Square is really hard to gauge, and I could see it happen either way. I guess that Microsoft is probably similar to the unique Capcom fighters where they are similar in priority but nit because they are decided together

 

[dream1ng]

Edit: though I could see what was suggested above: first party vets being included with the online service, but newcomers and third parties costing extra.

I'm not sure it's going to break down like that given it would still interfere with fighter pass purchases, should first-party vets be part of the bundle.

Were I to spitball, I think something like Piranha Plant, a bonus character outside the wave system, would be likelier. But maybe they would periodically add bonus first-party vets in between waves or something so they're offering something a bit more substantial than one fighter.

 

[7NATOR]

Well if they did it with MK and AC then Smash, in theory, seems possible. However, one critical difference is if they did that, they couldn't offer nearly as much back-end profit on the DLC purchases to the third-parties, which would be a problem. At least without giving them a cut from the NSO expansion pack itself, which would become very complicated, and probably be far lower.

What they may do to solve this is offer some selection of first-party-only content to expansion pack holders.

Things could change, but right now I just don't see them bundling Smash DLC with the online service. No, I think they'll want Smash players to subscribe to the online service in order to play matches online, and then pay extra on top of that to get all the characters. Basically, with Smash being so multiplayer-oriented, its players already have incentive to get an online subscription even if it doesn't include the DLC. You could say the same of Kart, but that game reaches a much wider, even more casual-oriented audience that seems to me less likely to subscribe for online compared to Smash's fanbase, and also perhaps less likely to buy extra DLC that's not bundled in with a service. Don't have numbers to back this up, though, just a sense.

Edit: though I could see what was suggested above: first party vets being included with the online service, but newcomers and third parties costing extra.

Good points. a Long DLC Cycle is really good as New First party games are released on the new console. It gives more a timeframe for current games to be represented in the current Smash at the time

If they do allow the First Party characters Whether Veterans and/or even Newcomers to be gotten through the NSO Expansion Pass, It does allow people to focus on the Third party DLC. Granted the 3rd Party characters are definitely the ones that get the most purchases and Downloads anyway, but for people that want all the DLC, at least when characters is concerned, it seems easier on the wallet

If they don't do this at all with Smash, well I'm sure people would buy it anyway even if it reaches $100 in terms of cost, just might be harder sell to get all of it

I just hope that the base game has a Great amount of Newcomers base game unlike Ultimate. I might be too optimistic, but personally I'm on the train that this next Smash game will have the largest Base game newcomer list in terms of number, whether they somehow do the impossible and bring every character back again, or not. I think with the team returning again in a Dedicated Studio, the Scenario that Nintendo allows extended development time, and that they keep the balancing of Ultimate as a base, I think it is feasible, but it'll be quite an achievement though.

 

[dream1ng]

I just hope that the base game has a Great amount of Newcomers base game unlike Ultimate. I might be too optimistic, but personally I'm on the train that this next Smash game will have the largest Base game newcomer list in terms of number, whether they somehow do the impossible and bring every character back again, or not. I think with the team returning again in a Dedicated Studio, the Scenario that Nintendo allows extended development time, and that they keep the balancing of Ultimate as a base, I think it is feasible, but it'll be quite an achievement though.

The extended development time is probably going to happen after release, not before release. They don't need base to be more stacked than ever when they can have it show up fairly early in the console's life, give it a good amount of characters, sell it for 70 bucks, and then provide years of paid DLC.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

I’m a little late for this topic, but I‘m expecting the original 12 to return but wouldn’t be shocked if Jigglypuff was cut. I feel like the developers like highlighting the original 8, Luigi is a gaming all-star, Captain Falcon is the SSB golden child more or less, and I don’t see Mother losing both fighters next entry. While being an original fighter helps Jigglypuff to some degree, I assume it’ll probably return last minute like in Brawl and presumably For (This photo I found on Source Gaming seems to have its data appear by Lucina and Dark Pit, making me guess that it was added later on).

Considering Jigglypuff was the last character in the unlock order on 3DS, (even after and ) and the model was literally ripped from X/Y with just a texture rework, it's painfully obvious Jigglypuff was for the second game in a row a low-priority character that just barely squeaked by because ease of resources.

 

[dream1ng]

So long Toys for Bob (probably)

https://www.sfchronicle.com/tech/article/tech-layoffs-microsoft-activision-blizzard-18651552.php

Don't worry Crash and Spyro, you can go sit next to Banjo and Conker. :|

Nope I guess not, false alarm

There was a problem fetching the tweet

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Nope I guess not, false alarm

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Well ****, time to cancel Sumo Scrimblos.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Nope I guess not, false alarm

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Okay, so the chance of a new Skylanders game is back up to 0%, and not in the negatives anymore. Hooray!

...

Look, sometimes you have to take what you can get.

 

[Dukefire]

A quick side news. For those that plays Skullgirls 2nd encore, a new voice announcer pack is available. Hope you like to hear Heavy/Demoman's voice.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

 

[7NATOR]

The extended development time is probably going to happen after release, not before release. They don't need base to be more stacked than ever when they can have it show up fairly early in the console's life, give it a good amount of characters, sell it for 70 bucks, and then provide years of paid DLC.

I Personally think it would be both. At the very least, I think Nintendo is willing to give Sakurai and the studio time to do what they do in regards to the game, even for base. If that goal included bringing every character back again in addition to good amount of new stuff and characters, I think Nintendo would be down. Even just making sure in spite of not every character returning, the game is packed, I could also see

By the most in the series, I personally think somewhere around 20 new characters. I believe Brawl had the most with 18 Newcomers base game. I think this new Smash can beat that

At the very least, I think the Base Newcomer count will Trump Ultimate's 11.

 

[BritishGuy54]

Third Party talk, huh? Well, let’s get a simple list of the 18 done.

Konami: Snake, Simon, Richter
Sega: Sonic, Bayonetta, Joker
Capcom: Mega Man, Ryu, Ken
Bandai Namco: Pac-Man, Kazuya
Square Enix: Cloud, Sephiroth, Hero
Microsoft: Banjo, Steve
SNK: Terry
Disney: Sora

In Ultimate’s 89-character roster, the percentage that are third parties is 20.225%. That’s one in five characters in Ultimate who are third party.

I don’t see Sonic going anywhere. Bayonetta is only at risk if the ESRB (and others) are too strict with recent rules. Joker however, I think is gone.

I think Konami may be gone as a whole. Mega Man and Ryu are certainly staying, though I can see Ken being swapped out for another SF character.

Pac-Man and Kazuya I think stay. Square Enix is also gone too. I’m unsure about Banjo and Steve. Terry is probably easy to bring back, but I don’t know if that may hurt his chances, ironically.

Sora is also probably gone…

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

If they actually built a studio dedicated only to Smash who's going to continually update the same Smash game over the years, I'm actually fairly optimistic they're going to do Everyone is here again in one way or another. It just makes sense.

 

[dream1ng]

I Personally think it would be both. At the very least, I think Nintendo is willing to give Sakurai and the studio time to do what they do in regards to the game, even for base.

Well Sakurai has demonstrated that the time needed to do what he does has been between 2-3 years. There's no need to exceed that if they can make something comparable to the past games in terms of quality and ready to ship in that time, because they have all the time after to add to it.

If that goal included bringing every character back again in addition to good amount of new stuff and characters, I think Nintendo would be down. Even just making sure in spite of not every character returning, the game is packed, I could also see

No, not if that's going to balloon the time spent in development before release with development costs commensurate with that extended duration and go far in excess of previous budgets. Nintendo wouldn't greenlight that.

The last time, when Sakurai's goal was to include every character and get the game out in a typical timeframe, the cost of that was adding five original newcomers to base, and even fewer new stages.

By the most in the series, I personally think somewhere around 20 new characters. I believe Brawl had the most with 18 Newcomers base game. I think this new Smash can beat that

It's not happening. When Brawl came out, there was no DLC. Everything that Brawl was going to be was day one base. That's why Meta-Knight stayed broken the entire time. Or why they could never finish Mewtwo. Brawl also brought back all of what? 21 veterans?

Now there's DLC. Not everything needs to be there in base on day one. And it makes no sense to prolong pre-release development in excess of the normal timeframe for things that could just be addressed post-release. Look at how Stage Builder and HRC were just added later. That's what they can do now.

Making the biggest base ever would be a nice feather in the cap, but unless this is a port, it's completely too idealistic. I mean you're aiming for all veterans returning and 20 newcomers. In base. That's ridiculous.

At the very least, I think the Base Newcomer count will Trump Ultimate's 11.

That's not crazy but remains to be seen. Half of those characters weren't original. They'll probably have more original newcomers this time, but it's also possible they go for a relatively restrained base and double down on DLC. Like a lot of fighting games do now. Especially if there's a lot of third-parties.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

The last time, when Sakurai's goal was to include every character and get the game out in a typical timeframe, the cost of that was adding five original newcomers to base, and even fewer new stages.

I feel like this is an oversemplification though.
Characters have nothing to do with stages, and the stage count actually multiplied from the previous game. Taking those stages from previous games was just a design choice.
An absurd amount of work obviously went into Ultimate's stages.

As for characters, it's not like including the ones that weren't in Smash 4 didn't take any work.
Ice Climbers are always one of the most difficult fighters to develop, and this time they even had to be adapted for 8-player matches. Wolf, Squirtle and Ivysaur have been redesigned and they all have brand new animations for basically everything compared to their Brawl versions. Young Link and Pichu are semiclones and relatively simple characters, but they've both been made from scratch.
The only one that didn't visibly change all that much from his last appearance is Snake; the other ones should have taken more or less the same amount of work required by a newcomer.
So Ultimate actually added 13 characters from Smash 4, not counting echoes, which is more or less the same amount of newcomers of any Smash game.

 

[dream1ng]

If they actually built a studio dedicated only to Smash who's going to continually update the same Smash game over the years, I'm actually fairly optimistic they're going to do Everyone is here again in one way or another. It just makes sense.

If they can hit maybe 65 characters in base, and let's say 15 of those are newcomers, that's still 39 veterans missing. Let's say we get a DLC character once every other month. So six a year. Even without newcomers, that would still take six and a half years of DLC. But there will be newcomers too.

Even if you bumped it up to an incredulous 75 characters in base (same newcomer quantity) - that'd be 29 vets missing, and would still take nearly five years of DLC without any newcomers. And that's with a generously frequent DLC schedule.

It doesn't just make sense.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

If they can hit maybe 65 characters in base, and let's say 15 of those are newcomers, that's still 39 veterans missing. Let's say we get a DLC character once every other month. So six a year. Even without newcomers, that would still take six and a half years of DLC. But there will be newcomers too.

Even if you bumped it up to an incredulous 75 characters in base (same newcomer quantity) - that'd be 29 vets missing, and would still take nearly five years of DLC without any newcomers. And that's with a generously frequent DLC schedule.

It doesn't just make sense.

If they have a permanent dedicated studio, why would the DLC release schedule be the same as Ultimate's, which was handled by a tiny skeleton crew?

 

[fogbadge]

To change the topic somewhat, I've been thinking about third party package deals.

It's really common to hear something like, "Well Sonic is definitely coming back, so Bayonetta and Joker are too." Or perhaps "Mega Man is coming back, so Ryu and Ken are locks."

Do you believe this? Do you believe that one third party veteran makes other from the same company more likely?

i do apologize for the lateness of this reply but i kinda of wanted to share my thoughts on it.

i don't think 3rd parties from the same company affect each other. in the case of sega, well i'd say they all have their own reason for why they'd return. sonic has been in more games than he hasn't, at this point he's a series staple. atlus have not stopped pushing persona 5 since it came out, if they want him back he'll be back. bayo well nintendo keep throwing money at the franchise for whatever reason so that makes it seem like she'll be back.

as for NB, i really struggle to see how pacman would affect kazuya or vice versa

the microsoft characters in particular disprove this when according to them they are the opposites in terms of getting in, B&K being an easy deal to make and steve taking five years to get in

i could on but point is i think every character will be treated individually

 

[dream1ng]

If they have a permanent dedicated studio, why would the DLC release schedule be the same as Ultimate's, which was handled by a tiny skeleton crew?

It isn't. Ultimate released twelve DLC characters over three years. That's quarterly, not bi-monthly. Yes some characters released close together, but that wasn't their tenable pace.

You think we're going to get one character per month? That's not realistic even with a full time studio. Even if they can do consecutive months, that won't be sustainable all year every year.

And even if we did get monthly drops, unrealistic as that seems, if we got as many newcomers as we did vets as DLC, it would take the same amount of time outlined in my examples as the other month would be the newcomer. Six or so years. And that's with a high base and character drops every month for basically the entire lifetime of Switch 2 after Smash releases. Which ironically, would probably cut into development of Smash 7.

 

[JOJONumber691]

I think this is a flawed premise because it once again suggests that the sticking point would be the third-party. And of course, the character can't get in without the third-party being on board, but the sticking point will almost certainly be Nintendo, and who they choose to re-include.

There's a mindset of "if Nintendo can get them to return, they will return". But, if the roster is starting again, that's not accurate.

I believe if they want to get back Sonic and Bayonetta and Joker, for example, they could. But not all characters will be given the same priority. It just can't work that way. And to that end, not all third-party fighters will be given the same priority. Some will be prioritized higher, and that will likely result in some of a company making it back, and some not.

Because the alternative is to partition it out in chunks per company. But one, that's not the basis on which third-party characters are added. And two, that would make it likelier that an entire company fails to return, because all vets in certain companies were prioritized above all vets in another.

Like, bar a buyout, something like this:
Returning: Cut:
is likelier than this:
Returning: Cut:
(not that I'm saying those specific characters will get cut, it's just an example)

Cloud is not returning in Base Game again I am just going to say that now. Given what we know about how difficult Final Fantasy in particular has been for Super Smash Brothers, I feel like if Cloud returns at all, it will be as DLC. I would be saying the same thing about Hero, but also Koichi Sugiyama is dead and iirc Matsuo Hayato owns the rights to the music of Dragon Quest now and he’s very hunky dory about Dragon Quest’s Music. Add in a closer relationship to Nintendo and I feel like Hero is probably returning before Cloud does. Sorry Final Fantasy Fans, but you’re most likely waiting until DLC again for any content next game.

 

[Gengar84]

Cloud is not returning in Base Game again I am just going to say that now. Given what we know about how difficult Final Fantasy in particular has been for Super Smash Brothers, I feel like if Cloud returns at all, it will be as DLC. I would be saying the same thing about Hero, but also Koichi Sugiyama is dead and iirc Matsuo Hayato owns the rights to the music of Dragon Quest now and he’s very hunky dory about Dragon Quest’s Music. Add in a closer relationship to Nintendo and I feel like Hero is probably returning before Cloud does. Sorry Final Fantasy Fans, but you’re most likely waiting until DLC again for any content next game.

I feel like it’s a mistake to make such definitive statements like that. There’s a good chance you’re right and Cloud might not make it in the base game but there’s always the chance that won’t be the case. I feel like saying things like “this definitely will/won’t happen” can only end up backfiring on you in the end.

 

[RileyXY1]

It's a trend in crossover appearances that Square Enix characters are usually always DLC. All four Square Enix reps in Smash (Cloud, Hero, Sephiroth, and Sora) were added as DLC, and this applies to other games such as Noctis's appearance in Tekken 7 and 2B's appearance in Soul Calibur 6. I think that Everyone is Here was the only reason why Cloud even got in the base game of Smash Ultimate, and I think that he would have been DLC once again if Sakurai decided not to do Everyone is Here.

 

[JOJONumber691]

I mean characters not coming back for legal reasons has happened before, Snake, so I feel like it’s safer to bet on Hero returning than Cloud returning. Either way we can all agree Sephiroth is never coming back. Bro only got in because Cloud didn’t have content, regardless of if Cloud comes back in Base or DLC, Sephiroth is not coming back. Cloud has Content now they can cut Sephiroth if he’s that Low Priority, which he probably will be given Cloud by himself is already a complicated legal situation.

 

[Gengar84]

It's a trend in crossover appearances that Square Enix characters are usually always DLC. All four Square Enix reps in Smash (Cloud, Hero, Sephiroth, and Sora) were added as DLC, and this applies to other games such as Noctis's appearance in Tekken 7 and 2B's appearance in Soul Calibur 6. I think that Everyone is Here was the only reason why Cloud even got in the base game of Smash Ultimate, and I think that he would have been DLC once again if Sakurai decided not to do Everyone is Here.

I don’t think third parties have really been a big thing long enough to establish that trend. Brawl only had two third party characters total. Cloud was introduced in the DLC for Smash 4 and was a base game character for Ultimate. Since third parties didn’t really fully take off until Smash 4 and Ultimate had the theme of “Everyone is here”, I don’t think we have enough data to really claim anything definitively one way or the other. Since Square-Enix didn’t get a character until Smash 4, there has only been one chance to get a character into the base game of the sequel and Cloud did that. Sure EiH means everyone came back but there’s been no evidence that the contrary would be true. It’s all just speculation one way or the other.

I mean characters not coming back for legal reasons has happened before, Snake, so I feel like it’s safer to bet on Hero returning than Cloud returning. Either way we can all agree Sephiroth is never coming back. Bro only got in because Cloud didn’t have content, regardless of if Cloud comes back in Base or DLC, Sephiroth is not coming back. Cloud has Content now they can cut Sephiroth if he’s that Low Priority, which he probably will be given Cloud by himself is already a complicated legal situation.

Again, maybe you’re right but you have no evidence to support that claim. Final Fantasy VII is more popular than any time since the original game’s launch and Sephiroth is a really popular character. On a personal level, he’s also my favorite Smash character so I’m not going to give up on his chances even if he’s one of the more likely cuts.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

It isn't. Ultimate released twelve DLC characters over three years. That's quarterly, not bi-monthly. Yes some characters released close together, but that wasn't their tenable pace.

You think we're going to get one character per month? That's not realistic even with a full time studio. Even if they can do consecutive months, that won't be sustainable all year every year.

And even if we did get monthly drops, unrealistic as that seems, if we got as many newcomers as we did vets as DLC, it would take the same amount of time outlined in my examples as the other month would be the newcomer. Six or so years. And that's with a high base and character drops every month for basically the entire lifetime of Switch 2 after Smash releases. Which ironically, would probably cut into development of Smash 7.

But you're assuming too many things in order to make your estimation.
First, that they'd cut 40 characters, which is half the roster and sounds very extreme.
Then, that one veteran and one newcomer would take the same amount of work - at least that's what I get from the "one month a veteran, one month a newcomer" proposal. But veterans clearly take less work than newcomers. With a full team behind it, packages of 2-3 veterans don't seem like anything too crazy. Any veteran they can pick is already a fully functional character in Ultimate.
I'd also like to point out that FP1 release schedule was actually faster than FP2's, I assume due to the team being larger when they were making it.

I mean, your scenario is still realistic in case they heavily rework movesets and mechanics, but not if the next game is just a regular sequel.

 

[Dukefire]

Well, it has been 6 years since Ultimate's release after the VGA of 2018. So eventually, fans and non-fans will start to get restless. Chain Smashing will never end........

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

Either way we can all agree Sephiroth is never coming back. Bro only got in because Cloud didn’t have content, regardless of if Cloud comes back in Base or DLC, Sephiroth is not coming back. Cloud has Content now they can cut Sephiroth if he’s that Low Priority, which he probably will be given Cloud by himself is already a complicated legal situation.

Sephiroth didn't get in primarily because of Final Fantasy having little content. He got in because he's ****ing Sephiroth, one of the most iconic villains in gaming history. Final Fantasy having little content was a secondary reason at best.

 

[Gengar84]

Sephiroth didn't get in primarily because of Final Fantasy having little content. He got in because he's ****ing Sephiroth, one of the most iconic villains in gaming history. Final Fantasy having little content was a secondary reason at best.

I feel like the upcoming release of part 2 Final Fantasy VII Rebirth only strengthens his chances of returning. Especially since Sephiroth is actually playable during segments of the game. He’s still far from a lock but I wouldn’t count his chances out so soon.