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Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

RileyXY1

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Microsoft seems pretty easy to work with actually.

In fact I’m gonna jump the gun and say both Banjo and Steve are pretty dang safe.
Except Steve is one of the most complicated characters in the series. His addition required Sakurai to modify 100+ stages just to get him to work properly. And I don’t know if he wants to go through that again.
 

fogbadge

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Except Steve is one of the most complicated characters in the series. His addition required Sakurai to modify 100+ stages just to get him to work properly. And I don’t know if he wants to go through that again.
and they said it took him 5 years to get in
 

Dinoman96

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Noipoi

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Except Steve is one of the most complicated characters in the series. His addition required Sakurai to modify 100+ stages just to get him to work properly. And I don’t know if he wants to go through that again.
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Because every stage that was already made had to be modified to account for a character who wasn't planned at the time of their creation. If Steve comes back in base game, every stage would be made with him in mind. They already have the code ready for him, it's not like they'd just get rid of it.

Minecraft is the biggest game in the world, my dude. THE WORLD. And now it's in Smash, that's incredible! I dunno why people think Sakurai would be so willing to give that up because "It'd be haaaaaard :,,,("
 

Louie G.

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Because every stage that was already made had to be modified to account for a character who wasn't planned at the time of their creation. If Steve comes back in base game, every stage would be made with him in mind. They already have the code ready for him, it's not like they'd just get rid of it.
I feel like they could also just like, have him mine the same resources on every stage if it’s really that much trouble. I think it’s cool they did it this way, but it’s not wholly necessary - takes away some of the novelty of the character but I expect certain DLC characters might need to be a bit neutered if they want to be on base this time.

It is a lot to demand for one character when you’re not exclusively focused on developing that one character, but that in itself is solvable before cuts enter the conversation.
 
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Gorgonzales

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This talk of First Parties has made me finally make my list of First Parties that I want the most (while trying and failing to limit Fire Emblem, Xenoblade and Pokemon)



I also spent too long thinking about this to the point where I absolutely forgot someone I would have really liked.
in this house we love dr coyle (very glad to see her here)

other favorite picks include squid sisters, ogerpon, doc louis, susie, funky kong, sami, and oatchi

shoutouts to having draguax too, it'd be cool to have him instead of trainee. kazuya gave us a taste of what a single villain repping their series could be like and it's really unique and cool, I'd actually love to see this happen.

esna would be neat too
 

Scrimblo Bimblo

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I don't have the time right now to comment on nearly all of this, but anyway yes, a roster with 60-some characters and a dozen or so newcomers would indeed necessitate about 30 cuts (not including echoes in these counts); however, I think several of your assessments of particular characters are off the mark. Anyway, so you can frame where I'm coming from, I'd expect those 30 cuts to go something like 20/10, or maybe 22/8, between first/third parties. If the roster goes down to 55-60 characters it could be more dire, though.

- Priority in past games could indeed be an indicator of who could be on the brink, though it is subject to change and I wouldn't rely on it exclusively. However, you fail to bring up that WFT was evidently one of the higher-priority newcomers for 4. I also disagree that WFT overlaps with Ring Fit; there is no more than superficial similarity due to them being from the same genre. If they're too similar, then Marth and Shulk would be too similar. I could go on but it's been covered in much more detail recently by others.

- If the alts were really the problem with Jr, they could simply cut the Koopalings and give Jr standard color alts (assuming they don't redesign him entirely). Unless you subscribe to the theory that he only gets in because of the Koopalings and 8-player Smash, which I don't; in any case, on the heels of Bowser's Fury and Wonder I'd say Jr is reasonably well-positioned going into the next game.

- What do you mean that Greninja doesn't play as unique as Incineroar? I don't understand that take. They're both unique, and honestly just being water-themed alone makes Greninja stand out a fair bit. Plus it's not like Incineroar is going to be current, either, by the time of the next Smash. I actually think Greninja is one of the safest Pokemon.

- Cloud's popularity has basically nothing to do with Ike's since Cloud's third party. Ike's case to begin with is rooted in being the most popular Fire Emblem character, so he's one of the likeliest to return aside from Marth and possibly Robin and Byleth. I don't think Ike and Pyra play similarly at all, either. In any case, I really don't think the dev team thinks in terms of superficial similarities nearly to the degree that some of these takes are positing.

- Shulk will stick around like Marth will.
This is exactly what I meant when I said that in the case of massive cuts, they wouldn't be judging every character exclusively on their own merits, but in relation to every other character too.
Of course everyone is unique in a vacuum, but if it comes down to making massive cuts I'm pretty sure they'd try to make a line-up as different as possible (in order to please the most amount of people), and that involves the risk of losing popular characters such as your Ikes and your Greninjas. It might also involve cutting one particularly difficult to develop character like Ice Climbers in order to keep two simpler ones.
Greninja for example, while certainly unique (and imo the most fun of the three) at the end of the day kinda falls in line with other fast, combo-oriented characters like Sheik or Joker; while Incineroar with his extreme slowness, focus on grappling and Revenge really has no comparision in the roster. If it comes down to keeping one new(ish) Pokémon, they could very well decide to focus their resources on the more unique one, even though the other is more popular.

As for Banjo, sure he's a very popular fan-favorite, but Megaman and Cloud also are, and maybe Nintendo would decide that talking to 4 companies for the base game is as far as they're willing to go.
It pains me to say this because Banjo is my favorite character to play as in the game, but I really don't think he'd be particularly safe in the event of a great cleansing.

But what my broader point wanted to be is that, yeah... They just can't win by cutting that many characters.
 

Louie G.

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Of course everyone is unique in a vacuum, but if it comes down to making massive cuts I'm pretty sure they'd try to make a line-up as different as possible (in order to please the most amount of people), and that involves the risk of losing popular characters such as your Ikes and your Greninjas. It might also involve cutting one particularly difficult to develop character like Ice Climbers in order to keep two simpler ones.
I agree with this to an extent, but I think your logic is inconsistent if you're factoring in Pyra's popularity (that part is correct, btw) and neglecting Ike's. He is the single most popular character in the series and is still featured prominently to promote it (example being Fire Emblem's series portal on Nintendo's JP site here). I suppose the mindset has to do with how many Fire Emblem characters there are, but Ike is pretty much your second safest bet.

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Fire Emblem trucks forward and is always introducing new faces so it's hard to gauge who's still relevant and significant, but Ike still stands tall as one of the series' most defining protagonists and beloved icons. It's one thing believing that merit in a vacuum isn't the be all end all of a character's inclusion, but I feel like removing the most popular character is another story entirely. That's why say... Charizard stuck around in Smash 4, anyway. And that guy breathes fire and is a dragon just like Bowser is... perhaps we're reaching a breaking point with those, now that Ridley is here? That would just be silly.

Truth be told I don't think there are a lot of other characters who play like Ike either. Cloud just doesn't have the same weight behind his attacks, and Pyra is totally different (more "anime" flair). Playing Ike feels more like swinging around a giant club and we don't have a lot of characters like that. Not to mention, I think Ike's brutish strength really juxtaposes well against Marth's more elegant style. He's a great foil that keeps the FE lineup dynamic.
 
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DarthEnderX

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Except Steve is one of the most complicated characters in the series. His addition required Sakurai to modify 100+ stages just to get him to work properly. And I don’t know if he wants to go through that again.
This is why I picked him for the "only one to get cut" gag.

I feel like they could also just like, have him mine the same resources on every stage if it’s really that much trouble.
It's what they should have done to begin with.

The juice wasn't worth the squeeze on the whole 'specific materials' thing.
 
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CapitaineCrash

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By the way, let me be unpleasant. I think considering Wii Fit Trainer fairly safe in the face of abundant cuts denotes that you guys really underestimate what a heavy cuts scenario would look like.
At that point you can't just consider characters in isolation, there's also the opportunity cost of keeping one character in place of one or multiple others, not to mention in relation to newcomers.

So here it is, my (mostly?) rational and unbiased cut list.

Dr. Mario - has been cut before, he's dead
Rosalina - could get cut, Nintendo doesn't use her as much anymore and I imagine she's one of the most labour-intensive fighters
Bowser Jr. - cut for sure, 7 alts is a ton of work
Young Link - he's probably not going to be prioritized over Toon Link
Zero Suit Samus - with other female action heroes now in the game, and Ridley working much better as the 2nd Metroid fighter, I think she's dead
Dark Samus - got lucky enough to get in one time
Wolf - Falco has already survived over him from Brawl to Smash 4
Jigglypuff - Sakurai will finally manage to give her the boot at the 6th try
Pichu - old news and ultimately a clone
Squirtle/Ivysaur - already gone before
Greninja - popular but not current and doesn't play as unique as Incineroar
Lucas - Mother 3 will never release in the West
Roy - semiclone, already cut before
Chrom - goes with Roy
Ike - Cloud and Pyra play similarly but have more gimmicks going on, plus they're both more popular
Corrin - as sure of a cut as sure can be
Ice Climbers - harder to bring back compared to other wacky characters
Palutena - Kid Icarus is dead
ROB - I feel like they'd prioritize Mr.G&W and Duck Hunt over him
Wii Fit Trainer - replaced by Ring Fit, as the roster shrinks there's less reason to keep similarly-themed characters in; and she's not in the Ness/Captain Falcon tier of untouchableness
Shulk - if cuts get heavy I don't see him surviving against Pyra and a new Xenoblade character
Snake - probably an expensive license, already got cut before, Duck Hunt and Pac-man are projectile-based trappers too
Bayonetta - if there's no Bayonetta 4 in the works and cuts get heavy, she could get the boot
Hero - probably too much of a pain to license for base game
Steve - a nightmare to develop, and probably also to license
Banjo & Kazooie - they're popular, but not the easiest to license 3rd party characters I think and there's always K. Rool for Rare nostalgia
Terry - just a fairly likely cut overall

Honorable mentions, characters who are at risk but I think are more likely to stay:
King K. Rool - I believe they're only going to keep him due to just how well-received he was a fighter, he might probably be the most popular Ultimate newcomer in general
Mii Fighters - Nintendo is phasing the Miis out, and it's three not super unique movesets to develop. I think they're only going to be kept around to sell DLC costumes
Joker - people just went crazy for him and Persona 5 is everywhere these days, probably not as high priority as other 3rd party characters bur I think they'll try to keep him
Sephiroth - Cloud won't get cut and at that point they'll just make the two of them a package deal
Piranha Plant - way easier to develop than both some other Mario characters and other wacky characters, a great encapsulation of how wacky Smash can get; I think Plant stays
Sora - could go either way but I don't think he'll get cut
Diddy Kong - DKC is dead, I don't think he's played that much outside of competitive play... But he's one of Nintendo's icons, he has to stay
Olimar - mostly same reasoning as Diddy
Villager - also same reasoning; but it push comes to shove I feel like they'd keep Isabelle
Falco - really hard to see this guy go, he's super popular in the Smash community, but ultimately he's a semiclone from a dead series
Sheik - similar to Falco


Now, do I think getting all these cuts would suck? Absolutely! I'd just keep playing Ultimate to be honest...
I feel like most of your reason are just non-issue really. Like, I don't think Ice climbers is that hard to bring back as you say, especially with future hardware being even more powerful. I also don't see why Bayonetta need a 4th game when 3 is super recent, if anything I'd argue she's probably easily among the safest third party to come back even in a cut heavy scenario.
 

SPEN18

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This is exactly what I meant when I said that in the case of massive cuts, they wouldn't be judging every character exclusively on their own merits, but in relation to every other character too.
Of course everyone is unique in a vacuum, but if it comes down to making massive cuts I'm pretty sure they'd try to make a line-up as different as possible (in order to please the most amount of people), and that involves the risk of losing popular characters such as your Ikes and your Greninjas. It might also involve cutting one particularly difficult to develop character like Ice Climbers in order to keep two simpler ones.
Greninja for example, while certainly unique (and imo the most fun of the three) at the end of the day kinda falls in line with other fast, combo-oriented characters like Sheik or Joker; while Incineroar with his extreme slowness, focus on grappling and Revenge really has no comparision in the roster. If it comes down to keeping one new(ish) Pokémon, they could very well decide to focus their resources on the more unique one, even though the other is more popular.
I've been saying myself that characters need to be judged relative to each other rather than simply in a vacuum.

I just flat-out disagree with saying that Greninja is less unique than Incineroar. But the bigger issue is that I also don't think the uniqueness factor, while still a consideration, is going to split hairs that thinly. The dev team isn't going to go hunting for superficial similarities in order to try to excuse certain cuts; no, if it comes down to cutting one unique character vs. another, I think they are far more likely to focus on the other relevant factors to settle it. Because the dev team makes these characters in the first place to be as different from each other as they can (explicit clones notwithstanding); they don't look at say Greninja and Sheik and say to themselves, "they're both fast ninja-types so having both is redundant."

There is risk of losing some popular characters, but arbitrarily reducing them to archetypes is not going to be the reason. They're not going to have a problem with roster diversity. Even if the roster only had 40-50 characters, you could pick names out of a hat and have enough diversity; that's a testament to the level of quality that the team puts into each and every fighter.
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

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This talk of First Parties has made me finally make my list of First Parties that I want the most (while trying and failing to limit Fire Emblem, Xenoblade and Pokemon)



I also spent too long thinking about this to the point where I absolutely forgot someone I would have really liked.
Looking at Doc Louis here and my first thoughts were what you could really do with him besides some funny chocolate gimmick. But thinking about more you can probably create a moveset by projecting all the special techniques from all the unique boxers he in-universe trained and prepared Mac for onto him. That includes Great Tiger's teleportation and afterimage shenanigans and the mental image of Doc casually pulling those off is too great to not share.

I don't see Punch-Out of all franchises getting a newcomer but I wouldn't mind Doc Louis in the slightest.
 

BuckleyTim

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I didn't realize but this week's tournament event isn't the melee-newcomers-only event but instead a different one entirely. Really thought it'd follow the n64 one, but i guess that's what i get for thinking an unconfirmed pattern would hold out. Wonder what the next spirit event on tuesday will be, especially with direct rumors really piling up now...
 

Opossum

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Looking at Doc Louis here and my first thoughts were what you could really do with him besides some funny chocolate gimmick. But thinking about more you can probably create a moveset by projecting all the special techniques from all the unique boxers he in-universe trained and prepared Mac for onto him. That includes Great Tiger's teleportation and afterimage shenanigans and the mental image of Doc casually pulling those off is too great to not share.

I don't see Punch-Out of all franchises getting a newcomer but I wouldn't mind Doc Louis in the slightest.
I mean...you could just as easily give Doc an actually fitting heavyweight boxing moveset and have him be very different from Little Mac, who's a rapid-striking lightweight. There's no need to do the whole "steal moves from the other boxers" thing people tried to shoehorn onto Mac back in the day.

Hell, Doc's whole thing is that he was the inventor of the Star Punch...something Mac himself conveniently doesn't use in Smash. That's a strong point for uniqueness already.
 

Gorgonzales

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I mean...you could just as easily give Doc an actually fitting heavyweight boxing moveset and have him be very different from Little Mac, who's a rapid-striking lightweight. There's no need to do the whole "steal moves from the other boxers" thing people tried to shoehorn onto Mac back in the day.

Hell, Doc's whole thing is that he was the inventor of the Star Punch...something Mac himself conveniently doesn't use in Smash. That's a strong point for uniqueness already.
doc's final smash

 

Louie G.

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I don't see Punch-Out of all franchises getting a newcomer but I wouldn't mind Doc Louis in the slightest.
I'm a huge Punch-Out fan and yeah, like I'd be really happy to see Doc Louis just because it's something new from the series. And he's an amazing character, I love him to death. But he wouldn't be among my first choices for a playable role, because I think his current supporting role suits him perfectly. I would go the extra mile and make it so that whenever Mac is on screen, Doc Louis is cheering him on from the sidelines akin to Pokemon Trainer. That feels the most fulfilling to me, he's a perfect NPC just like KK Slider. This role, theoretically, represents him the most faithfully. I would just like to see his involvement built upon and best case scenario, maybe even a little mid-match wisdom on other fighters when you taunt on Boxing Ring. The enemy boxers and their dynamic personalities and fighting styles are where it's at, though.

I used to be a stronger King Hippo supporter, but K. Rool scratches some of his itch for me down to having Punch-Out boss esque strengths and weaknesses. You can't hit K. Rool's belly? Try to attack him from behind. See those cracks in his gut? Hit him hard and blow the thing off! He's easily my favorite character to play against when I'm Little Mac, it's exactly what I'm looking for... the perfect simulation of Punch-Out in a traditional Smashing match. King Hippo is still the most iconic but from a gameplay perspective, I can't come up with that much new for him to offer anymore.

With that said, lately I lean a bit more toward Mr. Sandman if we were to get another Punch-Out character. While Hippo is more of Mac's cartoonish foil, a reflection of how goofy Punch-Out boxers are, Sandman is the "**** got real" moment. To be honest, I'd even be down if they adapted either Hippo or Sandman as a straight up boss character rather than being playable. It'd be interesting to act out a Punch-Out styled fight with a wider range of fighters.

I feel like some of what I'd like to see from Punch-Out relies on Mac being reworked a tad though. Little Mac is already tremendously strong, so I'm not sure Mr. Sandman would provide a great foil in that respect. He would just be Little Mac but slower and heavier, and if they want to make him stronger then it would just be ridiculously so. And I think Glass Joe would just be a phenomenal joke character, but with Little Mac already floundering in the low tier I think we need to worry about that first. "Worse Little Mac" doesn't hold much weight right now.

I think he should 1000% be a weak dud Assist Trophy though, that or King Hippo as sort of a bouncy human shield if Joe is retreading Starfy's role a bit. Said it a million times but why the hell does Punch-Out, known for such a wide array of funny characters, not have any of those characters popping out of an AT? I sincerely hope they mend that issue in the next game.
 
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GoldenYuiitusin

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Gotta be honest, nowadays I just don't see the appeal in majority of the boxers. The only two that I find can really stand out and be unique would be Great Tiger like I mentioned in my previous post (i.e. the ONLY ONE that doesn't have the "ain't no air fighter" baggage since he straight up flies) and Aran Ryan given his cheating nature can get very creative in ways like the horseshoe-filled glove as a flail.
 
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Louie G.

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Gotta be honest, nowadays I just don't see the appeal in majority of the boxers. The only two that I find can really stand out and would be Great Tiger like I mentioned in my previous post (i.e. the ONLY ONE that doesn't have the "ain't no air fighter" baggage since he straight up flies) and Aran Ryan given his cheating nature can get very creative in ways like the horseshoe-filled glove as a flail.
Yeah, everything on the table and no judgement of who is the most significant, recognizable or popular involved I'm probably inclined to agree with you. Especially since like I mentioned, Little Mac's current state leaves less for other more traditional boxers to take for themselves. He's fast, but he's also strong, and he also has a bad recovery, and so forth. Many of the enemy boxers would just not be fast, and still have the other things but be heavy and big. If Little Mac is already struggling under these conditions, the other boxers are bound to either be sitting ducks or have ridiculous super armor and kill at 40% midstage. Someone like King Hippo or Mr. Sandman are, at this point, probably better suited for assist trophies or boss battles.

I still do see the novelty in playable Glass Joe though, just so long as both the worst characters in the game don't belong to Punch-Out. As far as sheer moveset potential goes I'd struggle to think of anyone better than Great Tiger or Aran Ryan. Outside of some of the weirdo Super Punch-Out boxers I guess, who haven't been acknowledged in over 25 years anyway. And Donkey Kong.
 
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Gorgonzales

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I think Doc Louis would be a neat character to see in the future now that I think about it a little more. His down-b could be a pseudo-counter where he takes a bite from a chocolate bar, and if the opponent interrupts him he gains a brief buff to his attack speed and whatnot. And like Opossum said, having Doc use the Star Punch would be a great way to incorporate more uniquely Punch-Out mechanics into the game.

I'd want them to rework Mac to have him be not completely useless in the air before they add Doc, though. Mac in general needs re-balancing because I wouldn't want to play as another Punch Out character with a possibly worse recovery; Mac takes the "ground good air bad" approach way too extremely for him to function in a platform fighter.

Look I just want a playable black character that isn't a Mii or an alt for someone else ok
in a perfect universe where Nintendo and Valve cooperated on more projects:

 

Guynamednelson

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in a perfect universe where Nintendo and Valve cooperated on more projects
We'd have pretty much every Source Engine game on the Switch by now.

Honestly it's kind of baffling how Valve's games haven't been ported to newer consoles outside of the Portal Collection for the Switch. Gaben changed his mind and decided that the PS3 was good, actually...only to port 2 games to the console and nothing for the PS4/5 let alone Xbone/Xbox Series, neither of which have the issues Valve had to deal with when it came to content updates for 360 games.
 
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Louie G.

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If anything, I at least wish Punch-Out got those sick beats from the Wii game.
I shrugged this off for a bit because I was like, yknow what, I guess they're all kinda based on the same motif anyway. I wouldn't mind, but maybe that's why they only went with a couple. And then we got the whole ARMS soundtrack, so now that excuse doesn't fly anymore LOL. They should definitely just go ahead and add all the boxer variants of Minor Circuit, they're all great. Although I wouldn't even fault Sakurai for not knowing they exist, since for whatever reason they're locked behind exhibition instead of the main story.

I'd really like a Super Punch Out arrangement too, that fight theme could make for a really cool remix and round out the representation across the series a bit more. And then I'd really like Tomorrow's Passion to be available on Boxing Ring again, I know it's technically not a Punch-Out track but it feels like we lost something seeing it get lumped in with the "misc" stuff when it is concretely Little Mac's theme in Captain Rainbow.
 
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DarthEnderX

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man punch-out got a lot of good picks for a small franchise
That's cause it basically has a fighting game roster.

I'm surprised they didn't make a new Punch Out! game with how the Joy-cons retain the motion controls and how they promoted the "Touching rumble" thing that 1-2 Switch did early on.
Or at least a Wii PO remake.
 
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CapitaineCrash

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I wouldn't mind a second Punch-Out rep, but I feel that if you want to double dip on a similar franchise I'd much rather have a second Arms rep. I feel like Min Min is perfect to represent the basis of Arms gameplay, and they could go crazier with a second rep like Helix, Kid cobra or Byte and Bark, or maybe Dr. Coyle for a vilain rep or they could go with the second fan favorites Twintelle. Ribbon girl could be very fun too with the multiple jumps gimmicks.

I'd really like a Super Punch Out arrangement too, that fight theme could make for a really cool remix and round out the representation across the series a bit more. And then I'd really like Tomorrow's Passion to be available on Boxing Ring again, I know it's technically not a Punch-Out track but it feels like we lost something seeing it get lumped in with the "misc" stuff when it is concretely Little Mac's theme in Captain Rainbow.
This is the only thing that I hate about Ultimate music. I miss having the 1080 snowboarding music in Port town.
 

Perkilator

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And then I'd really like Tomorrow's Passion to be available on Boxing Ring again, I know it's technically not a Punch-Out track but it feels like we lost something seeing it get lumped in with the "misc" stuff when it is concretely Little Mac's theme in Captain Rainbow.
This is the only thing that I hate about Ultimate music. I miss having the 1080 snowboarding music in Port town.
This is why I wish My Music would allow you to play any song on any stage. Damn you, copyright…
 
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Louie G.

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Curious if we get 2nd punch-out rep do you think a 2nd punch-out stage would work as well?
Maybe the place where little man runs while doc is riding bicycle
Boxing Ring is pretty much the one essential Punch-Out location, and should probably return for every Smash game moving forward. I'd be fine if they just left it at that because that's where all the important action takes place.

But I'd like the city skyline stage too, I think that'd be cool. That's pretty much the only other feasible location other than Mac's practice room from Punch-Out Wii / his reveal trailer maybe? And even that still has a boxing ring in it, but that could just be one small component and you could interact with the punching bag and pull-up bars or something. I could see them going for the cityscape just because of how iconic that scene is, but I can't imagine they have too much incentive to be giving more stages to Punch-Out even in the instance of another fighter. Since their home stage would make just as much sense being the Boxing Ring as it would for Little Mac.

Unless, if they added King Hippo, they decided they wanted to work off what little we see of Hippo Island in his character intro lol.

1707008969497.png
 
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Kenkaranger

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This talk of First Parties has made me finally make my list of First Parties that I want the most (while trying and failing to limit Fire Emblem, Xenoblade and Pokemon)



I also spent too long thinking about this to the point where I absolutely forgot someone I would have really liked.

I still believe in Karate Joe being the perfect Rhythm Heaven rep, him or the chorus kids.
 
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