Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Wonder Smash]

Dormant series or not, the NES entry of Punch-Out!! is a timeless classic that will always be considered one of the best games ever made. I can't picture Nintendo cutting that part of their history out of their roster, especially after Little Mac was so heavily demanded, as already mentioned.

 

[Louie G.]

Dormant series or not, the NES entry of Punch-Out!! is a timeless classic that will always be considered one of the best games ever made. I can't picture Nintendo cutting that part of their history out of their roster, especially after Little Mac was so heavily demanded, as already mentioned.

It honestly warmed my heart to go back and read what Sakurai had to say about Little Mac when he was first shown off. I had falsely convinced myself that Sakurai didn't care much for the series, hence the relative lack of content, but his Famitsu column pretty much confirms the exact opposite and puts Little Mac on a golden pedestal alongside Mario, Mega Man and his adoptive child.

The arcade game Punch-Out!! has been in operation for 30 years. The copyright originates from 1983, the same year the Famicon was born. I was very shocked when I found this out. Little Mac has been drawn as wire-frame boxer, and [the game features] exaggerated enemy characters as if they were from cartoons from abroad. This was on a multi-screen device that resembled the Nintendo DS. Finally, it could produce synthesized speech.

It’s not like other boxing games where you can recklessly punch away either, the player needs to think about the sequence of their punches logically. The Famicon version of the game is more famous. I understand that. It is also a masterpiece. I never would have imagined that I personally would be able to work with the main character from such a game…Of course, I felt the same way with Mario, Pit, and Megaman.

He has some other kind things to say later, such as praising Miyamoto's fantastic art in the original arcade game and explaining that he ended up doing the pixel art for Little Mac's poster portrait himself.

So here's hoping Sakurai still loves our scrappy underdog as much as we do and makes him a priority again next time around.

 

[DarthEnderX]

I feel like a lot of people are forgetting how demanded Mac was before getting in? Seems like a lot of people are stuck talking about him as "just another dead franchise," with not enough substance beyond that.

Punch-Out wasn't even dormant at the time he was added. Wii Punch-Out was only a few years before, and was well-liked.

 

[SPEN18]

Punch-Out wasn't even dormant at the time he was added. Wii Punch-Out was only a few years before, and was well-liked.

Right, but I was talking about how people view it right now.
It could still come back at any time, though, at least in theory.
I am also glad Louie G. brought up Sakurai's post-reveal comments on Mac, I was gonna maybe bring those up myself.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

It honestly warmed my heart to go back and read what Sakurai had to say about Little Mac when he was first shown off. I had falsely convinced myself that Sakurai didn't care much for the series, hence the relative lack of content, but his Famitsu column pretty much confirms the exact opposite and puts Little Mac on a golden pedestal alongside Mario, Mega Man and his adoptive child.



He has some other kind things to say later, such as praising Miyamoto's fantastic art in the original arcade game and explaining that he ended up doing the pixel art for Little Mac's poster portrait himself.

So here's hoping Sakurai still loves our scrappy underdog as much as we do and makes him a priority again next time around.

The way you formatted that comment made me think for a second that Sakurai had actually created an account on the site.

 

[MasterCheef]

It honestly warmed my heart to go back and read what Sakurai had to say about Little Mac when he was first shown off. I had falsely convinced myself that Sakurai didn't care much for the series, hence the relative lack of content, but his Famitsu column pretty much confirms the exact opposite and puts Little Mac on a golden pedestal alongside Mario, Mega Man and his adoptive child ( Pit ).

.
Thank you for confirming ( Pit & Palutena ) are very likely for the next Smash

 

[RealLuigisWearPink]

Did someone say oddball pick?

 

[Louie G.]

.
Thank you for confirming ( Pit & Palutena ) are very likely for the next Smash

Pit is a no brainer, I'm iffy on Palutena though.

I hope Sakurai bias pulls through because I adore her, although maybe it just makes sense for her return so long as Palutena's Guidance is still in effect? She's kind of a strange character in the grand scheme of things - Kid Icarus is not really the kind of series that typically gets more than one character, and unlike Mother it's not a matter of multiple protagonists either. So I'm not even sure who I would say Palutena's closest foil on the roster is, she's just her own thing.

And I could see them determining Kid Icarus doesn't need more than one character since it's pretty small and dormant, or maybe she will return because she's popular and she will likely have some role in the game no matter what. Plus we don't really have any staff users, we're low on magic users, so I think she fulfills a pretty unique niche. I think I convinced myself typing this out that she's got a good shot, but now I'm curious what everyone else thinks.

 

[cashregister9]

This talk of First Parties has made me finally make my list of First Parties that I want the most (while trying and failing to limit Fire Emblem, Xenoblade and Pokemon)

I also spent too long thinking about this to the point where I absolutely forgot someone I would have really liked.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

It's important to remember that while Sakurai's own statements are important to take into account for character speculation, not even everything Sakurai himself says is absolutely final.

He's changed his mind on characters he previously didn't think should or could be made playable more than once.

 

[BritishGuy54]

How does everyone feel about the Mario series (and also DK, Yoshi, and Wario by proxy) going into next game?

I see a lot of rosters just cut the core Mario cast down to just the core four, which feels… weird.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

Okay guys.

Do you think that Wii Fit Trainer will return?

Or will she be seen as superfluous?

If they go heavy with cuts, I doubt WFT will return. Unlike G&W, ROB or even Piranha Plant she never seemed to have gained a particularly large playerbase. I think that's going to be an important factor going into the next game. (Which is also why I think Little Mac is 100% safe by the way)
Plus she overlaps a bit with the Ring Fit girl; if Ring Fit gets in I actually see WFT as one of the first cuts.

 

[NintenRob]

How does everyone feel about the Mario series (and also DK, Yoshi, and Wario by proxy) going into next game?

I see a lot of rosters just cut the core Mario cast down to just the core four, which feels… weird.

While I like him, Piranha Plant is probably going to be among the first unique characters cut if cuts have to be made. He always just a bonus and if you had to choose between him and any of the actual characters on the roster, the common mook is probably getting the short end.

Dr. Mario feels like an easy cut too. Cut once before, is just Mario. Not really needed.

I think Bowser Jr is also in danger. Sakurai is on record saying he almost wasn't in Smash 4, clearly showing him as lower priority compared to the rest of the cast, so if another got cut, it will probably be him.

Rosalina I think is safe, she's the opposite to Jr. She was in project plan to Smash 4, showing she was actually pretty high priority. And this is reflected in the marketing, she's on the cover art for Smash 3DS, the extended cover art for Smash Wii U, and shows up in multiple cg trailers and cutscenes. I think Bowser Jr only got to show up in Incineroars trailer outside his own (and Sora), though I may be missing one, like the crowd in Heroes, I'd have to check.

 

[fogbadge]

wacky/surprise characters are probably the only chance a lot of the characters i support have at this point

 

[RileyXY1]

It's important to remember that while Sakurai's own statements are important to take into account for character speculation, not even everything Sakurai himself says is absolutely final.

He's changed his mind on characters he previously didn't think should or could be made playable more than once.

Yep. He thought that Animal Crossing was too peaceful to get a character in Smash. Now it has two reps.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

By the way, let me be unpleasant. I think considering Wii Fit Trainer fairly safe in the face of abundant cuts denotes that you guys really underestimate what a heavy cuts scenario would look like.
At that point you can't just consider characters in isolation, there's also the opportunity cost of keeping one character in place of one or multiple others, not to mention in relation to newcomers.

So here it is, my (mostly?) rational and unbiased cut list.

Dr. Mario - has been cut before, he's dead
Rosalina - could get cut, Nintendo doesn't use her as much anymore and I imagine she's one of the most labour-intensive fighters
Bowser Jr. - cut for sure, 7 alts is a ton of work
Young Link - he's probably not going to be prioritized over Toon Link
Zero Suit Samus - with other female action heroes now in the game, and Ridley working much better as the 2nd Metroid fighter, I think she's dead
Dark Samus - got lucky enough to get in one time
Wolf - Falco has already survived over him from Brawl to Smash 4
Jigglypuff - Sakurai will finally manage to give her the boot at the 6th try
Pichu - old news and ultimately a clone
Squirtle/Ivysaur - already gone before
Greninja - popular but not current and doesn't play as unique as Incineroar
Lucas - Mother 3 will never release in the West
Roy - semiclone, already cut before
Chrom - goes with Roy
Ike - Cloud and Pyra play similarly but have more gimmicks going on, plus they're both more popular
Corrin - as sure of a cut as sure can be
Ice Climbers - harder to bring back compared to other wacky characters
Palutena - Kid Icarus is dead
ROB - I feel like they'd prioritize Mr.G&W and Duck Hunt over him
Wii Fit Trainer - replaced by Ring Fit, as the roster shrinks there's less reason to keep similarly-themed characters in; and she's not in the Ness/Captain Falcon tier of untouchableness
Shulk - if cuts get heavy I don't see him surviving against Pyra and a new Xenoblade character
Snake - probably an expensive license, already got cut before, Duck Hunt and Pac-man are projectile-based trappers too
Bayonetta - if there's no Bayonetta 4 in the works and cuts get heavy, she could get the boot
Hero - probably too much of a pain to license for base game
Steve - a nightmare to develop, and probably also to license
Banjo & Kazooie - they're popular, but not the easiest to license 3rd party characters I think and there's always K. Rool for Rare nostalgia
Terry - just a fairly likely cut overall

Honorable mentions, characters who are at risk but I think are more likely to stay:
King K. Rool - I believe they're only going to keep him due to just how well-received he was a fighter, he might probably be the most popular Ultimate newcomer in general
Mii Fighters - Nintendo is phasing the Miis out, and it's three not super unique movesets to develop. I think they're only going to be kept around to sell DLC costumes
Joker - people just went crazy for him and Persona 5 is everywhere these days, probably not as high priority as other 3rd party characters bur I think they'll try to keep him
Sephiroth - Cloud won't get cut and at that point they'll just make the two of them a package deal
Piranha Plant - way easier to develop than both some other Mario characters and other wacky characters, a great encapsulation of how wacky Smash can get; I think Plant stays
Sora - could go either way but I don't think he'll get cut
Diddy Kong - DKC is dead, I don't think he's played that much outside of competitive play... But he's one of Nintendo's icons, he has to stay
Olimar - mostly same reasoning as Diddy
Villager - also same reasoning; but it push comes to shove I feel like they'd keep Isabelle
Falco - really hard to see this guy go, he's super popular in the Smash community, but ultimately he's a semiclone from a dead series
Sheik - similar to Falco


Now, do I think getting all these cuts would suck? Absolutely! I'd just keep playing Ultimate to be honest...

 

[Noipoi]

By the way, let me be unpleasant. I think considering Wii Fit Trainer fairly safe in the face of abundant cuts denotes that you guys really underestimate what a heavy cuts scenario would look like.
At that point you can't just consider characters in isolation, there's also the opportunity cost of keeping one character in place of one or multiple others, not to mention in relation to newcomers.

So here it is, my (mostly?) rational and unbiased cut list.

Dr. Mario - has been cut before, he's dead
Rosalina - could get cut, Nintendo doesn't use her as much anymore and I imagine she's one of the most labour-intensive fighters
Bowser Jr. - cut for sure, 7 alts is a ton of work
Young Link - he's probably not going to be prioritized over Toon Link
Zero Suit Samus - with other female action heroes now in the game, and Ridley working much better as the 2nd Metroid fighter, I think she's dead
Dark Samus - got lucky enough to get in one time
Wolf - Falco has already survived over him from Brawl to Smash 4
Jigglypuff - Sakurai will finally manage to give her the boot at the 6th try
Pichu - old news and ultimately a clone
Squirtle/Ivysaur - already gone before
Greninja - popular but not current and doesn't play as unique as Incineroar
Lucas - Mother 3 will never release in the West
Roy - semiclone, already cut before
Chrom - goes with Roy
Ike - Cloud and Pyra play similarly but have more gimmicks going on, plus they're both more popular
Corrin - as sure of a cut as sure can be
Ice Climbers - harder to bring back compared to other wacky characters
Palutena - Kid Icarus is dead
ROB - I feel like they'd prioritize Mr.G&W and Duck Hunt over him
Wii Fit Trainer - replaced by Ring Fit, as the roster shrinks there's less reason to keep similarly-themed characters in; and she's not in the Ness/Captain Falcon tier of untouchableness
Shulk - if cuts get heavy I don't see him surviving against Pyra and a new Xenoblade character
Snake - probably an expensive license, already got cut before, Duck Hunt and Pac-man are projectile-based trappers too
Bayonetta - if there's no Bayonetta 4 in the works and cuts get heavy, she could get the boot
Hero - probably too much of a pain to license for base game
Steve - a nightmare to develop, and probably also to license
Banjo & Kazooie - they're popular, but not the easiest to license 3rd party characters I think and there's always K. Rool for Rare nostalgia
Terry - just a fairly likely cut overall

Honorable mentions, characters who are at risk but I think are more likely to stay:
King K. Rool - I believe they're only going to keep him due to just how well-received he was a fighter, he might probably be the most popular Ultimate newcomer in general
Mii Fighters - Nintendo is phasing the Miis out, and it's three not super unique movesets to develop. I think they're only going to be kept around to sell DLC costumes
Joker - people just went crazy for him and Persona 5 is everywhere these days, probably not as high priority as other 3rd party characters bur I think they'll try to keep him
Sephiroth - Cloud won't get cut and at that point they'll just make the two of them a package deal
Piranha Plant - way easier to develop than both some other Mario characters and other wacky characters, a great encapsulation of how wacky Smash can get; I think Plant stays
Sora - could go either way but I don't think he'll get cut
Diddy Kong - DKC is dead, I don't think he's played that much outside of competitive play... But he's one of Nintendo's icons, he has to stay
Olimar - mostly same reasoning as Diddy
Villager - also same reasoning; but it push comes to shove I feel like they'd keep Isabelle
Falco - really hard to see this guy go, he's super popular in the Smash community, but ultimately he's a semiclone from a dead series
Sheik - similar to Falco


Now, do I think getting all these cuts would suck? Absolutely! I'd just keep playing Ultimate to be honest...

This is a doomsday scenario that just isn’t gonna happen, though. Even in a heavy cut scenario, which I find unlikely, there’s no way all these characters are getting axed.

 

[fogbadge]

By the way, let me be unpleasant. I think considering Wii Fit Trainer fairly safe in the face of abundant cuts denotes that you guys really underestimate what a heavy cuts scenario would look like.
At that point you can't just consider characters in isolation, there's also the opportunity cost of keeping one character in place of one or multiple others, not to mention in relation to newcomers.

So here it is, my (mostly?) rational and unbiased cut list.

Dr. Mario - has been cut before, he's dead
Rosalina - could get cut, Nintendo doesn't use her as much anymore and I imagine she's one of the most labour-intensive fighters
Bowser Jr. - cut for sure, 7 alts is a ton of work
Young Link - he's probably not going to be prioritized over Toon Link
Zero Suit Samus - with other female action heroes now in the game, and Ridley working much better as the 2nd Metroid fighter, I think she's dead
Dark Samus - got lucky enough to get in one time
Wolf - Falco has already survived over him from Brawl to Smash 4
Jigglypuff - Sakurai will finally manage to give her the boot at the 6th try
Pichu - old news and ultimately a clone
Squirtle/Ivysaur - already gone before
Greninja - popular but not current and doesn't play as unique as Incineroar
Lucas - Mother 3 will never release in the West
Roy - semiclone, already cut before
Chrom - goes with Roy
Ike - Cloud and Pyra play similarly but have more gimmicks going on, plus they're both more popular
Corrin - as sure of a cut as sure can be
Ice Climbers - harder to bring back compared to other wacky characters
Palutena - Kid Icarus is dead
ROB - I feel like they'd prioritize Mr.G&W and Duck Hunt over him
Wii Fit Trainer - replaced by Ring Fit, as the roster shrinks there's less reason to keep similarly-themed characters in; and she's not in the Ness/Captain Falcon tier of untouchableness
Shulk - if cuts get heavy I don't see him surviving against Pyra and a new Xenoblade character
Snake - probably an expensive license, already got cut before, Duck Hunt and Pac-man are projectile-based trappers too
Bayonetta - if there's no Bayonetta 4 in the works and cuts get heavy, she could get the boot
Hero - probably too much of a pain to license for base game
Steve - a nightmare to develop, and probably also to license
Banjo & Kazooie - they're popular, but not the easiest to license 3rd party characters I think and there's always K. Rool for Rare nostalgia
Terry - just a fairly likely cut overall

Honorable mentions, characters who are at risk but I think are more likely to stay:
King K. Rool - I believe they're only going to keep him due to just how well-received he was a fighter, he might probably be the most popular Ultimate newcomer in general
Mii Fighters - Nintendo is phasing the Miis out, and it's three not super unique movesets to develop. I think they're only going to be kept around to sell DLC costumes
Joker - people just went crazy for him and Persona 5 is everywhere these days, probably not as high priority as other 3rd party characters bur I think they'll try to keep him
Sephiroth - Cloud won't get cut and at that point they'll just make the two of them a package deal
Piranha Plant - way easier to develop than both some other Mario characters and other wacky characters, a great encapsulation of how wacky Smash can get; I think Plant stays
Sora - could go either way but I don't think he'll get cut
Diddy Kong - DKC is dead, I don't think he's played that much outside of competitive play... But he's one of Nintendo's icons, he has to stay
Olimar - mostly same reasoning as Diddy
Villager - also same reasoning; but it push comes to shove I feel like they'd keep Isabelle
Falco - really hard to see this guy go, he's super popular in the Smash community, but ultimately he's a semiclone from a dead series
Sheik - similar to Falco


Now, do I think getting all these cuts would suck? Absolutely! I'd just keep playing Ultimate to be honest...

and i thought i was bias. i must say you're pretty quick to call a franchise dead

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

This is a doomsday scenario that just isn’t gonna happen, though. Even in a heavy cut scenario, which I find unlikely, there’s no way all these characters are getting axed.

30-something cuts is what most people are predicting will happen, though.

 

[Noipoi]

30-something cuts is what most people are predicting will happen, though.

Well most people are silly

 

[fogbadge]

30-something cuts is what most people are predicting will happen, though.

yes cause the entire smash fandom has never been wrong before. repeatedly

 

[RileyXY1]

30-something cuts is what most people are predicting will happen, though.

It's what most people are predicting if the next Smash game doesn't go the Ultimate Deluxe route, that is.

 

[fogbadge]

It's what most people are predicting if the next Smash game doesn't go the Ultimate Deluxe route, that is.

it really isn’t

 

[Noipoi]

Am I really the only guy who thinks the next game won’t be some deluxe port of Ultimate, but also won’t include some apocalyptic Thanos snapping of the roster? There’s more options than just these two extremes, Y’know.

Obviously I’m not the only one, just saying

 

[RouffWestie]

I feel it's worth noting that the Smash devs have shown to be capable of developing Smash for two different consoles at the same time, and managed to keep all but 5 characters from the previous entry. and 3 of those 5 were cut due to technical issues.
These big cut lists are probably only happening if it's a brand new team working on the next game (not likely) or Nintendo decides to force them to make the game in under a year (why would they?)

 

[Pupp135]

Okay guys.

Do you think that Wii Fit Trainer will return?

Or will she be seen as superfluous?

I find the suprise picks harder to predict. I think that maybe 2 or 3 will return, and I‘d guess that Mr. Game & Watch is the highest priority mostly because of seniority bias. After that, I guess Wii Fit Trainer is next in line as she was one of the first newcomers in For. Overall, I’d say she‘s relatively safe, but not guaranteed.

How does everyone feel about the Mario series (and also DK, Yoshi, and Wario by proxy) going into next game?

I see a lot of rosters just cut the core Mario cast down to just the core four, which feels… weird.

At the bare minimum, I expect to see at least the core four, Daisy, Yoshi, Wario, DK, and Diddy return given their prominence and Daisy’s ease of development. While they aren’t locks, I think Rosalina and King K. Rool are relatively safe as Sakurai seems to like having experimental characters on the roster, and K. Rool was one of the big requests.
For Dr. Mario, I’m leaning towards him being cut because there are other low effort characters taking priority over him with the leftover development time (Jigglypuff, Lucina, and if it gets drastic, Toon Link and Falco).
Bowser Jr. and Piranha Plant were lower priority for their respective joining entries, so I assume they’re probably low priority next game.

 

[fogbadge]

Am I really the only guy who thinks the next game won’t be some deluxe port of Ultimate, but also won’t include some apocalyptic Thanos snapping of the roster? There’s more options than just these two extremes, Y’know.

Obviously I’m not the only one, just saying

I don’t think so either. although I am sick of people referencing the snap

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

View attachment 384035

Well most people are silly

I know! The scenario I described would ultra suck, it's not at all what I want to happen. But that's what people evoke when they bring up significant cuts.
I think the Smash team would agree to be honest

 

[fogbadge]

I know! The scenario I described would ultra suck, it's not at all what I want to happen. But that's what people evoke when they bring up significant cuts.
I think the Smash team would agree to be honest

ok but you were making things up

 

[MasterCheef]

why is there an exceedingly strange obsession with ; Ness & Captain Falcon ?

you could apply the same attributes as C Falcon to some other character & get similar game-play results.

Ness totally makes No Sense. literally one of the most annoying characters.
Is more of a dead franchise than , F-Zero , Kid Icarus , Game & Watch , Wii Fit , & Star Fox

 

[fogbadge]

why is there an exceedingly strange obsession with ; Ness & Captain Falcon ?

you could apply the same attributes as C Falcon to some other character & get similar game-play results.

Ness totally makes No Sense. literally one of the most annoying characters.
Is more of a dead franchise than , F-Zero , Kid Icarus , Game & Watch , Wii Fit , & Star Fox

mother is a finished franchise. wii fit lives on through its spiritual successor

 

[RileyXY1]

why is there an exceedingly strange obsession with ; Ness & Captain Falcon ?

you could apply the same attributes as C Falcon to some other character & get similar game-play results.

Ness totally makes No Sense. literally one of the most annoying characters.
Is more of a dead franchise than , F-Zero , Kid Icarus , Game & Watch , Wii Fit , & Star Fox

Mother is not a dead franchise. It's a finished franchise. The reason why there are no new Mother games being made right now is because the creator doesn't want to make any more, but the franchise's spirit lives on in a crapton of indie games and the most profitable IP of all time, that being Pokémon.

 

[osby]

Am I really the only guy who thinks the next game won’t be some deluxe port of Ultimate, but also won’t include some apocalyptic Thanos snapping of the roster? There’s more options than just these two extremes, Y’know.

Obviously I’m not the only one, just saying

It seems like most people think that the next game won't be remarkable unless it does one of those two, which is... I guess makes sense to a degree but there's also the possibility that it'll distinguish itself in a way we can't predict.

 

[Noipoi]

It seems like most people think that the next game won't be remarkable unless it does one of those two, which is... I guess makes sense to a degree but there's also the possibility that it'll distinguish itself in a way we can't predict.

I'd almost say that's a certainty.

Throughout all my years as a Nintendo fan I can say for sure that all too often, we can never quite predict what they're going to do. Fandom hiveminds are real, we convince ourselves that only one or two outcomes are possible, and then they throw a curveball at us.

 

[Louie G.]

why is there an exceedingly strange obsession with ; Ness & Captain Falcon ?

you could apply the same attributes as C Falcon to some other character & get similar game-play results.

Ness totally makes No Sense. literally one of the most annoying characters.
Is more of a dead franchise than , F-Zero , Kid Icarus , Game & Watch , Wii Fit , & Star Fox

Maybe because most people value characters beyond simple function or marketability? Wild concept.

Why should I care how dead Mother is, or whether or not some other character could adopt Captain Falcon's moveset? I love the Mother series, I love Ness and I love Captain Falcon. I am beyond thankful every day that Nintendo and Sakurai don't force this kind of miserable roster philosophy onto the game, I can't fathom why it's certain fans who care about keeping the roster so corporate and brand friendly over the literal corporation. Both are also independently popular characters both casually and competitively, so people just enjoy playing them. Many of those people probably aren't super familiar with their source material.

Neither series is even that dead right now. F-Zero 99 literally just came out last year and Earthbound just got a heavily promoted rerelease on NSO. Neither of those are a brand spanking new AAA release, but surely this is enough indication that these aren't properties Nintendo would rather just neglect and forget about wholesale. F-Zero is prominently featured in Mario Kart of all things. They are valued.

Am I really the only guy who thinks the next game won’t be some deluxe port of Ultimate, but also won’t include some apocalyptic Thanos snapping of the roster? There’s more options than just these two extremes, Y’know.

I think most people think this. But I guess it also depends how drastic you consider a "Thanos snap" to be, because even if we lose 20-ish different characters, and then add around 10 new ones, we're gonna see a roster around the size of Ultimate's at launch. I think it's pretty likely we're going to see the most drastic cuts in Smash history, but that doesn't mean we're getting a full reboot.

We're just not accustomed to losing more than a small handful between every game so it feels pretty dire... but we also never had this many third party properties, or returning clones and variants, or this much Pokemon and Fire Emblem built up. Just kind of the inevitable next step from Everyone is Here if we want to save space for exciting fresh and new additions instead, and without the DLC time and budget out the gate that allowed the roster to eventually hit 82 original characters.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Am I really the only guy who thinks the next game won’t be some deluxe port of Ultimate, but also won’t include some apocalyptic Thanos snapping of the roster? There’s more options than just these two extremes, Y’know.

"Everyone is Here but Steve!"

But I guess it also depends how drastic you consider a "Thanos snap" to be

Technically speaking, it means half.

 

[SPEN18]

By the way, let me be unpleasant. I think considering Wii Fit Trainer fairly safe in the face of abundant cuts denotes that you guys really underestimate what a heavy cuts scenario would look like.
At that point you can't just consider characters in isolation, there's also the opportunity cost of keeping one character in place of one or multiple others, not to mention in relation to newcomers.

So here it is, my (mostly?) rational and unbiased cut list.

Dr. Mario - has been cut before, he's dead
Rosalina - could get cut, Nintendo doesn't use her as much anymore and I imagine she's one of the most labour-intensive fighters
Bowser Jr. - cut for sure, 7 alts is a ton of work
Young Link - he's probably not going to be prioritized over Toon Link
Zero Suit Samus - with other female action heroes now in the game, and Ridley working much better as the 2nd Metroid fighter, I think she's dead
Dark Samus - got lucky enough to get in one time
Wolf - Falco has already survived over him from Brawl to Smash 4
Jigglypuff - Sakurai will finally manage to give her the boot at the 6th try
Pichu - old news and ultimately a clone
Squirtle/Ivysaur - already gone before
Greninja - popular but not current and doesn't play as unique as Incineroar
Lucas - Mother 3 will never release in the West
Roy - semiclone, already cut before
Chrom - goes with Roy
Ike - Cloud and Pyra play similarly but have more gimmicks going on, plus they're both more popular
Corrin - as sure of a cut as sure can be
Ice Climbers - harder to bring back compared to other wacky characters
Palutena - Kid Icarus is dead
ROB - I feel like they'd prioritize Mr.G&W and Duck Hunt over him
Wii Fit Trainer - replaced by Ring Fit, as the roster shrinks there's less reason to keep similarly-themed characters in; and she's not in the Ness/Captain Falcon tier of untouchableness
Shulk - if cuts get heavy I don't see him surviving against Pyra and a new Xenoblade character
Snake - probably an expensive license, already got cut before, Duck Hunt and Pac-man are projectile-based trappers too
Bayonetta - if there's no Bayonetta 4 in the works and cuts get heavy, she could get the boot
Hero - probably too much of a pain to license for base game
Steve - a nightmare to develop, and probably also to license
Banjo & Kazooie - they're popular, but not the easiest to license 3rd party characters I think and there's always K. Rool for Rare nostalgia
Terry - just a fairly likely cut overall

Honorable mentions, characters who are at risk but I think are more likely to stay:
King K. Rool - I believe they're only going to keep him due to just how well-received he was a fighter, he might probably be the most popular Ultimate newcomer in general
Mii Fighters - Nintendo is phasing the Miis out, and it's three not super unique movesets to develop. I think they're only going to be kept around to sell DLC costumes
Joker - people just went crazy for him and Persona 5 is everywhere these days, probably not as high priority as other 3rd party characters bur I think they'll try to keep him
Sephiroth - Cloud won't get cut and at that point they'll just make the two of them a package deal
Piranha Plant - way easier to develop than both some other Mario characters and other wacky characters, a great encapsulation of how wacky Smash can get; I think Plant stays
Sora - could go either way but I don't think he'll get cut
Diddy Kong - DKC is dead, I don't think he's played that much outside of competitive play... But he's one of Nintendo's icons, he has to stay
Olimar - mostly same reasoning as Diddy
Villager - also same reasoning; but it push comes to shove I feel like they'd keep Isabelle
Falco - really hard to see this guy go, he's super popular in the Smash community, but ultimately he's a semiclone from a dead series
Sheik - similar to Falco


Now, do I think getting all these cuts would suck? Absolutely! I'd just keep playing Ultimate to be honest...

I don't have the time right now to comment on nearly all of this, but anyway yes, a roster with 60-some characters and a dozen or so newcomers would indeed necessitate about 30 cuts (not including echoes in these counts); however, I think several of your assessments of particular characters are off the mark. Anyway, so you can frame where I'm coming from, I'd expect those 30 cuts to go something like 20/10, or maybe 22/8, between first/third parties. If the roster goes down to 55-60 characters it could be more dire, though.

- Priority in past games could indeed be an indicator of who could be on the brink, though it is subject to change and I wouldn't rely on it exclusively. However, you fail to bring up that WFT was evidently one of the higher-priority newcomers for 4. I also disagree that WFT overlaps with Ring Fit; there is no more than superficial similarity due to them being from the same genre. If they're too similar, then Marth and Shulk would be too similar. I could go on but it's been covered in much more detail recently by others.

- If the alts were really the problem with Jr, they could simply cut the Koopalings and give Jr standard color alts (assuming they don't redesign him entirely). Unless you subscribe to the theory that he only gets in because of the Koopalings and 8-player Smash, which I don't; in any case, on the heels of Bowser's Fury and Wonder I'd say Jr is reasonably well-positioned going into the next game.

- What do you mean that Greninja doesn't play as unique as Incineroar? I don't understand that take. They're both unique, and honestly just being water-themed alone makes Greninja stand out a fair bit. Plus it's not like Incineroar is going to be current, either, by the time of the next Smash. I actually think Greninja is one of the safest Pokemon.

- Cloud's popularity has basically nothing to do with Ike's since Cloud's third party. Ike's case to begin with is rooted in being the most popular Fire Emblem character, so he's one of the likeliest to return aside from Marth and possibly Robin and Byleth. I don't think Ike and Pyra play similarly at all, either. In any case, I really don't think the dev team thinks in terms of superficial similarities nearly to the degree that some of these takes are positing.

- Shulk will stick around like Marth will.

 

[Sucumbio]

"Everyone is Here but Steve!"

And I wouldn't shed a single tear lol

 

[Louie G.]

Banjo & Kazooie - they're popular, but not the easiest to license 3rd party characters

Honestly I just want to combat this misconception because I really think Banjo is among the easiest third party characters. At risk of sounding like a broken record since I've brought it up before, Microsoft is literally just handing over several classic Rare titles to Nintendo via NSO. If Banjo was such an expensive or exclusive property, they could have been selling a port independently on the eshop. Instead it seems to me like Microsoft values this history a lot and probably sees it beneficial to continue that relationship with Nintendo, with Banjo as somewhat of a PR golden boy.

He's also just one of the most simple DLC characters, so he isn't quite weighed down by the baggage that someone with more dev time or more of a flashy gimmick might. I don't think that'd be the be all end all... like, I think Steve has a good chance of returning too, but it's something to note. I think Microsoft will still be involved in at least some fashion, this connection to the western market opens up a lot of opportunities.

 

[fogbadge]

Honestly I just want to combat this misconception because I really think Banjo is among the easiest third party characters. At risk of sounding like a broken record since I've brought it up before, Microsoft is literally just handing over several classic Rare titles to Nintendo via NSO. If Banjo was such an expensive or exclusive property, they could have been selling a port independently on the eshop. Instead it seems to me like Microsoft values this history a lot and probably sees it beneficial to continue that relationship with Nintendo, with Banjo as somewhat of a PR golden boy.

He's also just one of the most simple DLC characters, so he isn't quite weighed down by the baggage that someone with more dev time or more of a flashy gimmick might. I don't think that'd be the be all end all... like, I think Steve has a good chance of returning too, but it's something to note. I think Microsoft will still be involved in at least some fashion, this connection to the western market opens up a lot of opportunities.

didnt the guy in charge of Xbox say it was an easy deal to make?