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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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Cutie Gwen

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Not really, because you likely wouldn't have less content.

Even if you lost a few 3P characters to licensing, Nintendo would still probably add more characters than it cut.
Idk man that's what people said about SwoShi before cutting half of the roster.

Also why am I notn surprised we're having yet another discussion about cuts for a hypothetical game that doesn't exist? It's literally off topic
 

Garteam

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Honestly, getting the third parties back for an Ultimate rerelease really wouldn't be that challenging. Sega, Capcom, Namco, and SNK all seem very easy to work with. Likewise, although there may have been issues with them in the past, Konami seems pretty open to licensing for Smash thanks to things like the Bomberman assist trophy, the Goemon Mii costume, and the insane amount of Castlevania content. Microsoft could potentially be challenging in the future, but if they remain cooperative and open to future collaborations with Nintendo, I don't see them being an issue.

That really just leaves Cloud and Hero. Cloud definitely seems like he had a lot of red tape and bureaucracy to get through for Ultimate, but it also seems that some resolution was reached to get him in the game, so I don't think he'd be an issue again. Hero's completely fine except for Sugiyama, so really it's just a matter of working around him to get Hero back.
 
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Guynamednelson

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but it also seems that some resolution was reached to get him in the game
Something tells me that it was part of the reason why Hero is DLC, not just Sugiyama.

Hope you enjoy SSBU Deluxe having a pass consist entirely of Geno, Crono, 2B, Lara Croft, Adam Jensen, and Agent 47 just to cover Cloud, Hero, and the Trials of Mana and Octopath Traveler spirits being in the base game.
 

Dinoman96

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The two biggest obstacles regarding an Ultimate Deluxe port with everything included are Hero and to an lesser extent, the third party Mii outfits.

From my understanding, JASRAC/Sugiyama gets a certain percentage of every item sold with Dragon Quest music in it, which is probably a big red flag to Hero ever being available in the default roster. Likewise, the fact that all of the Mii outfits based on the third party characters that were introduced in Smash 4 are all being sold all over again as DLC in Ultimate tells me that's a little bit of legal red tape going on there as well.

I guess the work around is to just have Hero in the base game and release his stage and music as DLC, and resell the third party Mii outfits as DLC again, but really, wouldn't the appeal of an Deluxe version of Ultimate be that it'd have everything together all on one disc?
 
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Michael the Spikester

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I might not understand everything but what's the problem with having everything back in an Ultimate port. It's pretty much the same game only with additional stuff whether characters, stages, and such and on the next-gen console.
 

Perkilator

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I might not understand everything but what's the problem with having everything back in an Ultimate port. It's pretty much the same game only with additional stuff whether characters, stages, and such and on the next-gen console.
Mostly copyright, and even then it’s only really a problem with Square Enix (moreso Sugiyama).
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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Honestly, getting the third parties back for an Ultimate rerelease really wouldn't be that challenging. Sega, Capcom, Namco, and SNK all seem very easy to work with. Likewise, although there may have been issues with them in the past, Konami seems pretty open to licensing for Smash thanks to things like the Bomberman assist trophy, the Goemon Mii costume, and the insane amount of Castlevania content. Microsoft could potentially be challenging in the future, but if they remain cooperative and open to future collaborations with Nintendo, I don't see them being an issue.

That really just leaves Cloud and Hero. Cloud definitely seems like he had a lot of red tape and bureaucracy to get through for Ultimate, but it also seems that some resolution was reached to get him in the game, so I don't think he'd be an issue again. Hero's completely fine except for Sugiyama, so really it's just a matter of working around him to get Hero back.
My guess is that Hero would be impossible unless Sugiyama was uh...not a thing. He's the whole reason why Hero is DLC in the first place.
 

SKX31

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I might not understand everything but what's the problem with having everything back in an Ultimate port. It's pretty much the same game only with additional stuff whether characters, stages, and such and on the next-gen console.
It depends on if it's considered a new project or not. Which is difficult to say right off the bat: on one hand, it's pretty much the same game as you said - on the other, it's on a different console and could effectively be seen as a "contract extension" of sorts.
 

Arcanir

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Honestly, getting the third parties back for an Ultimate rerelease really wouldn't be that challenging. Sega, Capcom, Namco, and SNK all seem very easy to work with. Likewise, although there may have been issues with them in the past, Konami seems pretty open to licensing for Smash thanks to things like the Bomberman assist trophy, the Goemon Mii costume, and the insane amount of Castlevania content. Microsoft could potentially be challenging in the future, but if they remain cooperative and open to future collaborations with Nintendo, I don't see them being an issue.

That really just leaves Cloud and Hero. Cloud definitely seems like he had a lot of red tape and bureaucracy to get through for Ultimate, but it also seems that some resolution was reached to get him in the game, so I don't think he'd be an issue again. Hero's completely fine except for Sugiyama, so really it's just a matter of working around him to get Hero back.
Another thing to consider though is whether the relationship between the companies and the resulting negotiations change in the coming years. As we've seen with companies like SE in the N64 era or Konami in the mid-2010s sometimes things go sour between or within the companies that make them harder to work with and that can affect what happens with negotiations. If something goes south with even one of them then we may lose multiple characters outright and there's not much Sakurai can do to change that.
 

SKX31

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I'm honestly expecting the next Smash to massively cut down the roster.
We dint even know if there’ll even for sure be a next Smash, let alone what the roster’s like.
While we don't know if there'll be a next one, Nintendo has very likely a lot of interest in keeping the series going. Consider past entries' sales:

64: 5.55 million
Melee: 7.41 million
Brawl: 13.32 million
4: [3DS 9.59 million] - [Wii U 5.37 million] (14.96 million total)
Ultimate (as of June 30th 2020): 19.99 million - has certainly crossed the 20 million mark (unless they somehow fail to sell 10.000 copies in 2 1/2 months span... yeah not believing that).

Smash has gotten to the point where it would be unwise for Nintendo to completely drop the series after Ultimate.

That said, any cuts need not be massive though - Sakurai and Nintendo have a lot of leeway when it comes to Smash post-Ultimate. An Ultimate port could certainly work - even if it takes some time to possibly renegotiate stuff - because it would give Sakurai / Furukawa / Nintendo at large more time to consider how to proceed with a Smash 6.

If they want to build a new engine from scratch, they can do that. Or even turn Smash 6 into a live service game. Although live service does have its negatives and possible traps the model can potentially cover for cuts - not just via new characters, but also because they could take their time negotiating for cut veterans if need be.

Also, Sm4sh had 51 characters IIRC pre-DLC (with 3 years worth of dev time). That's a decent base number to build on. Now I'm fully aware that a Smash 6 would likely need a new engine and all that, so 51's not even a guarantee. But given Sm4sh's and Ultimate's sheer size many in the fanbase would prefer the cuts to be as minimal as possible. Sakurai likely leans towards "cutting as few as possible" too - 34 of 40 Brawl veterans returned in Sm4sh initially and Lucas was later re-added as DLC. The return of Melee veterans Mewtwo and Roy likewise signal that if he and his team can they'll re-introduce veterans when possible.

My guess is that Sakurai and Nintendo will take their time. I find Ultimate DX (or just porting it) rather likely because it's less of a hassle than starting a Smash 6 from scratch. Also, Sakurai's likely to take some time off himself - or focus on a different project - before commiting to a hypotheoretical Smash 6.
 

MooMew64

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There is absolutely no way Smash ends here, the series sells too well. It'll go away for a while, sure, but it's not gonna end IMO.

The most likely scenario is an Ultimate Deluxe. Getting the rights back for an already made game is much more believable when you'll have more of a budget for that than needing it to building a new game from the ground up. Honestly, though? It's waaaaaaay too soon to be talking about next game: We're not even halfway through FP2, lol.
 

Megadoomer

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No, I think it was a different reason. IIRC, it was because realistic firearms weren’t allowed when Sm4sh’s base roster was being made.
Snake didn't have realistic firearms in Brawl. Project M gave him a tranquilizer gun, but Brawl stuck to explosives, seemingly to avoid realistic firearms.

I don't think anything's officially been stated about why Snake didn't make it into Smash 4. Kojima stated that he wanted Snake to be in the game, but Konami was in full-on bridge-burning/pachinko machine mode at the time (firing Hideo Kojima and removing his name from the boxart of games, removing P.T. from all digital stores, sticking exclusively to gambling and mobile games aside from MGSV (which they rushed out rather than letting the developers finish the game), etc.), so as far as anyone can tell, Konami seems to be the reason.
 
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SNEKeater

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Too naive to think Ultimate is gonna be the end of Smash. If the games didn't sell very well then I'd understand the doubts, but that isn't the case.
The series will continue for a long time. Sells incredibly well, it's a popular series, and more.

Sakurai being the director or not isn't really a problem. I mean, not dismissing his work at all, but if Sakurai decides to stop working in Smash Nintendo will just find another director for the next game.
Did Microsoft stop making Halo games when Bungie left the series? Obviously not. Same case will happen with Nintendo and Sakurai, assuming he will stop working in the series at some point.
 

Scoliosis Jones

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While I don't think Smash will "end", I think that there could be changes going forward that result in Smash "as we currently know it" to end.

I mean, think about it. While there's hardly any way for Smash to sell poorly, they've gone all in on making the mascot crossover the best it can be in the most effective marketing method possible: having an all-star roster of characters. We're at a point where with basically any character being cut, that character would become the among the highest requested characters.

We're also at a point where few of the remaining non-playable requests don't have nearly the same fan support or demand as previously large demands, and their role in their home games isn't necessarily large. For "new" series, there are few that have regular prominence in promo material and releases. Ultimate covers many bases.

Even if you add Dixie Kong, Bandanna Waddle Dee, and Waluigi, that's three newcomers. If Golden Sun and Advance Wars aren't revived, those two series are hard on luck to get a fighter. Sure, you'll get the newest Pokemon and probably Fire Emblem lord, but where else do you go? For another example, Chibi-Robo is dead. New character additions would probably be overshadowed by veteran announcements overall, but there isn't a major pool for 1st party newcomers like there once was.

This would result in, most likely, changes to gameplay and game modes, which isn't as much of a draw as characters are currently. It's not a black and white situation at all. While Smash will likely continue, the question is not necessarily "will they" but "how will they". It cannot be denied that it will be extremely difficult to outperform Ultimate in terms of scope and audience. I'm not entirely sure how this will happen, if i'm being honest.

The fact that this crossover may never happen again is a reason why I'd like to see it get even bigger. It'll probably never happen again, so I say go all in.
 
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Garteam

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Something tells me that it was part of the reason why Hero is DLC, not just Sugiyama.

Hope you enjoy SSBU Deluxe having a pass consist entirely of Geno, Crono, 2B, Lara Croft, Adam Jensen, and Agent 47 just to cover Cloud, Hero, and the Trials of Mana and Octopath Traveler spirits being in the base game.
Sakurai said the decision to make a Hero a DLC fighter came down to the dollars and cents of working with Sugiyama. It really seemed that everyone, including Square, was on board to make Hero a base game fighter. Sugiyama just wanted too much money to make that a feasible option.

My guess is that Hero would be impossible unless Sugiyama was uh...not a thing. He's the whole reason why Hero is DLC in the first place.
Sugiyama will always be an obstacle for an Ultimate rerelease, but it's definitely not impossible to get around him. Maybe everything in Hero's pack except the music is in the base game, while the music is a day 1 DLC? I know it's not preferable, but it is a solution with some upsides. Sugiyama is out of the way, those who don't want to support him don't have to, and a separate DLC pack could even create enough revenue to justify licensing orchestral music.

Another thing to consider though is whether the relationship between the companies and the resulting negotiations change in the coming years. As we've seen with companies like SE in the N64 era or Konami in the mid-2010s sometimes things go sour between or within the companies that make them harder to work with and that can affect what happens with negotiations. If something goes south with even one of them then we may lose multiple characters outright and there's not much Sakurai can do to change that.
Changing relationships between publishers is always a factor, but I still wouldn't necessarily worry about that. Nintendo has really pulled out all of their cards to build bridges between themselves in the publishers in Smash during the Switch era. Their third party relations haven't been this good since the SNES.

The only company I could see things changing with is Microsoft. They're very cooperative now, but I think the overall underperformance of the Xbox One is somewhat responsible for that. When a company underperforms, there's a certain humbleness about them, where they're more likely to pursue consumer-friendly strategies and equal partnerships with other companies. Inversely, success comes with a corporate ego which leads to companies pushing their luck with consumers and in partnerships. I don't think its surprising that Nintendo and Microsoft were much quicker to adopt crossplay than Sony, who's currently riding rather high.
 
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PeridotGX

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While I think that saying this will be the last Smash game is ridiculous, I do think it's very likely that this will be the last with Sakurai at the helm. He's been working on the series for almost a decade straight, and while I think he enjoys it, I think he'd like to do something else (either a vacation or a different game).

Also, hot take, but I wouldn't mind seeing a Non-Sakurai Smash game. Don't get me wrong, his work on the Smash series is fantastic and Ultimate is probably my favorite game of all time, but I'd just like to see someone else's take on the series, someone else's moveset philosophy, someone else's idea for new modes and features and innvoations. Worst case scenario and it's a total trash heap? It's not like they're going to delete Ultimate, we can still play that like the Melee fans stuck with their game.
 

Hadokeyblade

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Cloud is probably the only third party I can see having problems coming back.

Dragon quest wasn't that big an issue to get in, just the music. And by the time the next smash rolls around the only obstacle that made hero DLC to begin with will be dead so there will be no real issues getting the heroes back.

There's also Banjo, who I think his return would depend entirely on how well the console manufacturers are getting along like 5 to 10 years from now.
 

The Rhythm Theif

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While I think that saying this will be the last Smash game is ridiculous, I do think it's very likely that this will be the last with Sakurai at the helm. He's been working on the series for almost a decade straight, and while I think he enjoys it, I think he'd like to do something else (either a vacation or a different game).

Also, hot take, but I wouldn't mind seeing a Non-Sakurai Smash game. Don't get me wrong, his work on the Smash series is fantastic and Ultimate is probably my favorite game of all time, but I'd just like to see someone else's take on the series, someone else's moveset philosophy, someone else's idea for new modes and features and innvoations. Worst case scenario and it's a total trash heap? It's not like they're going to delete Ultimate, we can still play that like the Melee fans stuck with their game.
When you said total trash heap, Sonic Forces just INSTANTLY came to mind. I mean, sure, Infinite was a cool villain (he's not the best, far from it, but he's still good), but everything else about Forces was utter garbage.
 

Dinoman96

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I think the main thing people overlook in regards to Banjo is the fact that Minecraft is pretty much the big lynchpin between Nintendo and Microsoft. Craig Duncan said as much.

I can't see a scenario where Microsoft stops publishing Minecraft on Nintendo consoles, that'd be a huge PR disaster for both companies involved. And thus, I can't see how Banjo wouldn't be able to come back in future installments. MC will pretty much ensures that Nintendo and Microsoft will always have a working relationship.
 
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Evil Trapezium

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Also, hot take, but I wouldn't mind seeing a Non-Sakurai Smash game. Don't get me wrong, his work on the Smash series is fantastic and Ultimate is probably my favorite game of all time, but I'd just like to see someone else's take on the series, someone else's moveset philosophy, someone else's idea for new modes and features and innvoations. Worst case scenario and it's a total trash heap? It's not like they're going to delete Ultimate, we can still play that like the Melee fans stuck with their game.
I talked about this before but I think Shinya Kumazaki, the current director of the Kirby series could probably pull off a really good Smash Bros game. Heck Kirby star allies is a pseudo Smash Bros in of itself.
 

StarBot

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Well Now is the time for me to Introduce another Fan rule i don't think much are talking about

It's called the Hierarchy Rule, and it states that within a Speculation Cycle, you can't Come into the game in a lower position (in this case Spirit Event) and then go into a Higher Position (Mii Costume)

Because the Resident Evil Spirits were added when FP2 was decided, I say this rule is valid towards them, as such we probably won't have Mii Costumes reluctantly, which is a Shame because I would think a Wesker Costume would look Awesome
Ya know, the main reason why I surport fan rules, because with Nintendo and Sakurai, they always have to pull a catch / gotcha

You want hazerless stages? Sure! But we are gonna put it into a separate screen, instead of a toggle

Also majority of them won't matter anyways

Stuff like that, a monkey paw you people would say

However, I'm legitimately don't understand the logic with this fan theory

Yes, Sakurai and the Smash team have shown they obviously have priorities, and when they sign deals for spirits or costumes, they work on it and forget about,

So when they potentially a had a better ideal in future, they will never go back and try to improve on it

So I can sorta understand your logic, but I'm sorry, this dosn't fully makes any sense

The thorey on if they made a spirt event while FP2 is happening, then it's good likely chance they won't be playable fighter, due to the fact they could've have easily make those rights for a playable character

But this logic on they can't be Miis and Spirits, dosn't make any sense

Dosn't cuphead already disproven this theory?
 

osby

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When you said total trash heap, Sonic Forces just INSTANTLY came to mind. I mean, sure, Infinite was a cool villain (he's not the best, far from it, but he's still good), but everything else about Forces was utter garbage.
You must be really desperate to dunk on Forces because this was the most unrelated reply to a post I've ever seen.
 
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