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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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Megadoomer

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People who remember the end of Smash 4 DLC negatively are obviously primarily thinking of Corrin and not Bayonetta. Bayonetta was technically revealed a whole 15 minutes after Corrin was, but I don't see how that's relevant. It's 2 characters in a single presentation, and Corrin was one of them. Corrin was the one people were hating on after the reveal. The hatred of Bayonetta is more of a retroactive thing due to hating the character's balance/moveset.
I recall a lot of people disliking Bayonetta after the reveal, though I feel like that was largely due to the idea that "I didn't vote for Bayonetta (or hear about many people voting for Bayonetta), so she didn't really win the Smash Ballot, and the real winner was clearly [insert user's most-wanted character here]!"

Alternatives include her moveset looking overpowered, or her series being too "mature" or "unfitting" or "niche" for Smash Bros.
 
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SKX31

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Yes, well, tragedies do happen as well.
I will (try to) improve my dad jokes!

Well, they've had their release order presumably planned for a while. Min Min being first doesn't preclude a headliner being next. I mean, you could theorize that they may want all the complicated characters out of the way at the beginning, but you could also theorize that they may want to alternate between complicated and simpler to keep a somewhat steady release schedule.

It really depends on who the characters are, I think. Because I do think marketing is something that dictates order with the DLC. Perhaps complexity is another factor. But so far, between the DLC this time and last, the more complex characters appeared in no fixed order. I mean, last time I would consider Bayo the most complex character, and she was last. Following that, probably Ryu, and he was in the middle. Last pass I would think Hero was the most complex, and he was towards the beginning. Now Min Min was first.
Nope, it doesn't neccessarily preclude. I'm being hypotheoretical partly for the "it makes sense" angle. Yes, I'm personally aware that that way of thinking does lead to some wrong concl-...

...Oh criminy. Bayo was last in Smash 4's DLC, right. Somehow I missed that.

As for marketing impacting (even directing) the DLC release schedule, yes largely agreed. The initial ARMS reveal in March was accompanied by ARMS getting a free-play period and an ARMS Online Open being scheduled around that free-play period - the first official ARMS tournament in ca. 1 1/2 years. While that's marketing as a tie-in to a Smash announcement (and not "Big character revealed at big event" like E3's reveals) it's still marketing.

Putting in a character to appeal to China isn't implausible, but entering a new market partway through a pass is an extraordinary, atypical circumstance, not something that should be used as standard precedent (unless they later enter another new market).

Also, if a character is added for a new market when they debut in that market, it's still starting with a bang in that market.
Indeed they are atypical - the entire history behind the Switch's release there is kind of strange. That said, it's a question that is relevant since Nintendo's looking beyond the standard JP / NA / EU. One could also make the argument that atypical scenarios also help extend a game's lifespan.

There is quite a bit of overlap beyond MOBAs having a massive presence in China* - Minecraft is huge there, and characters like Reimu, Dante and even characters like Phoenix have noticeable Chinese fanbases. I say even Phoenix because Ace Attorney doesn't have any official release there... but AA still has a Mother 3-esque fanbase there. Smash isn't huge there, but it has a following: Terry's reveal was particularily noted.

*(And games that are big there but not elsewhere - but I don't imagine that they're eligible at all. 37 Games' catalog didn't come along with Terry, it was all SNK.)

People who remember the end of Smash 4 DLC negatively are obviously primarily thinking of Corrin and not Bayonetta. Bayonetta was technically revealed a whole 15 minutes after Corrin was, but I don't see how that's relevant. It's 2 characters in a single presentation, and Corrin was one of them. Corrin was the one people were hating on after the reveal. The hatred of Bayonetta is more of a retroactive thing due to hating the character's balance/moveset.
While the hatred of Bayo is partly retroactive, yes, it developed quickly too. Especially once people started to discover that she could kill off of a single punish in certain scenarios and carry opponents to the top blastzone. It was in Ultimate's beta too - causing a certain infamous moment. When Sakurai shook his head: he saw a professional Bayo player still being able to carry his opponent to the top blastzone.

It's similar to the hatred of :metaknight: - yes, the hatred of him is also retroactive, but it was also really quick to develop. What with Brawl MK's ability to practically ignore tripping, ledge-stall forever (which neccesitated a ledge grab limit at tournaments) and frustrate opponents with quick aerials all over the place.
 
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Swamp Sensei

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:ultbayonetta1:Bayonetta hate has largely died down for three reasons.:ultbayonetta:

  1. She is no longer bonkers broken.
  2. She's no longer the only "minor" third party and Smash fan's wants and desires have evolved to be more open to smaller third party characters.
  3. We got Ridley, K.Rool and Banjo, so accusations of her "stealing the ballot win" are now seen as pointless.
 
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Megadoomer

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what adult would be mad about Bayo being in smash because shes "Mature"
The same sort of people who think that Snake shouldn't have been included in Smash because he "doesn't fit", or the sort of people who thought that it was impossible to include Ridley as a playable character because he was "too big".
 

MarioDDR755

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I just remember thinking Bayonetta really wasn't talked about all that much during ballot season, so I was surprised she was the one to make it in through the ballot.

I'm glad she's in now though, and very glad she's no longer broken good. Honestly she is a really interesting inclusion that may never have happened if she didn't do decently well in the ballot.
 

Sc_Ev0lution

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While she wasn't the most talked about, I remember Bayo coming up a little bit in smash discussions, and she placed respectably in a few fan polls at the time. She wasn't quite a Joker or Terry level blindside pick.
 

AceAttorney9000

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I remember Bayonetta as being more or less a dark horse pick that a decent amount of Smash and Bayonetta fans (myself included) really wanted to see make it in, but never actually expected her to actually make it in... and then she made it in as the final Smash 4 DLC character.
 

SNEKeater

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It doesn't matter who was the final character in Smash 4. Any option would have received more or less hate. Bayonetta was an easy target for some people for not being enough Nintendo, or the nature of the character, or because people couldn't handle the fact that their most wanted wasn't chosen or the winner of the Ballot, and so on.

Ultimate could end with Sora or Master Chief and people would still complain, mostly because the character wasn't who they wanted.

Assumed, though both Crash and Spyro did have the "They were exclusive for a year, then ported to Switch."
That wasn't the case for Spyro, Spyro was just simply ported later to the Switch. It came out on PS4 and Xbox One at the same time. The Crash trilogy was the one with one year exclusivity.

Or they could just reveal a good final character. There, I solved everyone's problems.
But maybe what you would call a "good final character" wouldn't be the same for me, you know?
 
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Evil Trapezium

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But maybe what you would call a "good final character" wouldn't be the same for me, you know?
Alright. How about a character that is highly requested or generally liked then?
 
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Professor Pumpkaboo

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The same sort of people who think that Snake shouldn't have been included in Smash because he "doesn't fit", or the sort of people who thought that it was impossible to include Ridley as a playable character because he was "too big".
oh, so people who shouldnt be listend to, got it
 

SNEKeater

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Alright. How about a character that is highly requested or generally liked then?
I mean, that's fair, but it would be impossible to satisfy everyone, even if the final character is someone like Crash, Chief or Sora. And I guess Nintendo doesn't care about this, maybe Pass 2 will end with a big popular name, but at the same time it makes sense for them to put the big names earlier in the pass.

And maybe it's just me but I definitely think Bayonetta falls into these two things you have said. She was a popular request, and therefore she was liked by a lot of people.
That doesn't mean she was universally loved, but neither was Banjo before his announcement or neither is Geno nowadays, and both are still considered popular requests.
 

Rie Sonomura

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Looks like NoA tends to tweet late nowadays, they still haven’t tweeted today
 

SirBillyBob

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Here's a joke I did.
little recovery.jpg

Now that Next Level Games is done with Luigi's Mansion, here's hoping to them making a new Punch-Out game.
 

Cutie Gwen

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Fun fact! Bayonetta was an especially popular Smash pick on tumblr and NeoGAF back in the day, but not here. As for why Incineroar got some hate, they weren't Banjo, Geno, Shadow, Chorus Kids and Mach Rider, people hated Incineroar for not being a fake leak and instantly confirming that the people who assumed Grinch was true were fooled
 

Aetheri

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Fun fact! Bayonetta was an especially popular Smash pick on tumblr and NeoGAF back in the day, but not here. As for why Incineroar got some hate, they weren't Banjo, Geno, Shadow, Chorus Kids and Mach Rider, people hated Incineroar for not being a fake leak and instantly confirming that the people who assumed Grinch was true were fooled
Don't forget Decidueye, the "preferred" SuMo pick.
 
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Evil Trapezium

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I mean, that's fair, but it would be impossible to satisfy everyone, even if the final character is someone like Crash, Chief or Sora. And I guess Nintendo doesn't care about this, maybe Pass 2 will end with a big popular name, but at the same time it makes sense for them to put the big names earlier in the pass.

And maybe it's just me but I definitely think Bayonetta falls into these two things you have said. She was a popular request, and therefore she was liked by a lot of people.
That doesn't mean she was universally loved, but neither was Banjo before his announcement or neither is Geno nowadays, and both are still considered popular requests.
No one is saying that one character is going to satisfy everyone but a generally well received character is better to end the lineup than a character that is mixed. Bayonetta is a generally liked character while Incineroar and Byleth were more mixed.
 

Michael the Spikester

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Maybe even less. If the Monday Direct is happening, it’ll likely get announced late this week, since weekends are usually a no-go for announcements.

I’ll believe it when I see it though haha.
True, true. The ARMS presentation was announced on Friday. I would assume if there is a Direct next week then it'll be announced on that day.
 

osby

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Low-key dread to see the alternate reality where incineroar wasn't leaked whatsoever lol
I don't think its reception would be too different. People who vocally hate on Incineroar the most are usually the ones who convinced themselves that Box theory was just a conspiracy and would've been blindsided either way.
 

-crump-

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Tbh I didn’t want Incineroar because I don’t like it’s design and I was tired of the mandatory new Pokémon per Smash game, not because I wanted Box Theory to get epically owned. Smash Incineroar turned out to be a pretty fun character though, so I’ve gotten over it.

Also, not to drag up the old Bayonetta drama again, but if I recall correctly dataminers found a suspicious Zero Suit Samus model in the files like a week after the Ballot started. Considering that getting the rights to use 3rd party characters is a long process, is it really that unbelievable that Sakurai was leaning towards Bayo regardless and the Ballot was for determining Ultimate’s cast?
 

Rie Sonomura

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Uh oh
LET’S

****ING

GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!
 

Arcanir

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Nah Grinch was clearly the bigger factor in hate, if it was Decidueye instead, people would have still been absolutely livid at how Grinch was fake, Incineroar's criticisms involving other Pokemon were significantly less than "THIS CANNOT BE! I WAS PROMISED 7 CHARACTERS!"
It was a big factor, but even before the Grinch Leak was a thing Incineroar did get a good amount of hate from the fanbase. I remember people responding pretty poorly to Vergeban finally outright stating the Gen 7 Pokemon was it, with things like 'it's just another fire starter!' or 'it's just going to be another Bowser/Charizard!' and so on being pretty common. The Grinch Leak did made things worse for it, but the base for a bad reaction to it was already there to begin with.
 
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Gentlepanda

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Uh oh
and as a heads up, yes this does in fact coincide with imminent reveals

the only question is whether or not it's this week or the next
 

Slime Master

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Tbh I didn’t want Incineroar because I don’t like it’s design and I was tired of the mandatory new Pokémon per Smash game, not because I wanted Box Theory to get epically owned. Smash Incineroar turned out to be a pretty fun character though, so I’ve gotten over it.

Also, not to drag up the old Bayonetta drama again, but if I recall correctly dataminers found a suspicious Zero Suit Samus model in the files like a week after the Ballot started. Considering that getting the rights to use 3rd party characters is a long process, is it really that unbelievable that Sakurai was leaning towards Bayo regardless and the Ballot was for determining Ultimate’s cast?
Yeah, I find it very hard to believe Bayo was picked because of the ballot, though that doesn't necessarily mean she didn't do well on the ballot.
 

MooMew64

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Safe to say my pessimistic late August/September predictions can finally be put to bed, lol.

We have no idea who #7 is, and this is incredibly surprising. I can't wait! Hopefully this is coming sooner rather than later.
 

Rie Sonomura

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THATS NOT ALL


The kicker? Andre later deleted this reply
 
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