Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[MooMew64]

To be fair, Nintendo is probably stacking up hype for Season 2 anyway, so they'll probably want to end it on a low note and open with a high note.

I should clarify that I also got a lot of 3rd party picks, but granted, even those would get frowned upon by some, lol.

If I'm being perfectly honest, though, my current dream pick is an AT upgrade for Waluigi come post-pass.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Here’s something that could be interest. Using this criteria, list the character that you feel best fits category!

Popularity:
Relevancy:
Importance:
Nostalgia:
Uniqueness:
Fun Factor:
Hype Inducer:
Meh-Low Key Add:
Sakurai Pick:
Ninty Exec Pick:
Smashboards Pick:
Gamefaqs Pick:
Twitter Pick:
WTF Pick:

I added a few more categories for funsies.

Popularity: Steve
Relevancy: 2B
Importance: Master Chief
Nostalgia: Geno
Uniqueness: Akira
Fun Factor: Dante
Hype Inducer: Sora
Meh-Low Key Add: Some new Pokémon
Sakurai Pick: Heihachi
Ninty Exec Pick: Some new Pokémon
Smashboards Pick: Geno
Gamefaqs Pick: Heavy (according to a poll I found by googling)
Twitter Pick: Waluigi
WTF Pick: Earthworm Jim

 

[epicmartin7]

Hey ya'll, I just want to let you know that the compression limits for Super Smash Bros. Ultimate are in the process of being broken as of this post. It's not quite there yet, however, progress is being made on that front.

While this is good for the modding community, as it basically eases restrictions, it causes the side effect of picture leaks being nearly unverifiable.
Think of the Mallow and Doom Costume image, but on steroids. As with that rumor, arguments regarding filesize restrictions had ground to stand on. With the limits nearly being broken, it takes that platform away.

So I'm just warning people ahead of time, due to fake leaks season most likely starting here soon and the implications of all of this.

 

[Inawordyes]

So don't trust picture and/or video leaks ever again, gotcha.

Cacomallow still stands on some legs though, as unless someone has broken the compression limit and then just sat on it for months without telling anybody else and/or contributing to the effort to crack the limit (EDIT: and that would be a super jerk move towards the Ultimate modding community, and I don't see how anybody hoards this info to themselves and doesn't capitalize on it for "early access" to limit-broken mods), it can't really have been the work of a modder to get such detailed models. But basically anything and everything coming now after is gonna be a crapshow to speculate on, as everything is going to have to be taken with a grain of salt now even if it ends up being a legitimate leak in hindsight.

 

[Mamboo07]

So don't trust picture and/or video leaks ever again, gotcha.

Cacomallow still stands on some legs though, as unless someone has broken the compression limit and then just sat on it for months without telling anybody else and/or contributing to the effort to crack the limit (EDIT: and that would be a super jerk move towards the Ultimate modding community, and I don't see how anybody hoards this info to themselves and doesn't capitalize on it for "early access" to limit-broken mods), it can't really have been the work of a modder to get such detailed models. But basically anything and everything coming now after is gonna be a crapshow to speculate on, as everything is going to have to be taken with a grain of salt now even if it ends up being a legitimate leak in hindsight.

Agree, I don't trust these kind of leaks. Remember what happened back in 2018, November with the oh so famous Grinch?

 

[Sour Supreme]

#CacoMallowIsReal

Or, maybe not. I would still be hyped as all hell though. Its funny that this absence of solid information seems like some sort of void these days. I remember picking up Brawl and finding out Sonic made the roster when I looked at the back of the box, lol. Reminder that knowing nothing only expands the possibilities of whats to come!

Seems we're on the brink of something, here. Knock on wood.

 

[Deleted member]

Here’s something that could be interest. Using this criteria, list the character that you feel best fits category!

Popularity:
Relevancy:
Importance:
Nostalgia:
Uniqueness:
Fun Factor:
Hype Inducer:
Meh-Low Key Add:
Sakurai Pick:
Ninty Exec Pick:
Smashboards Pick:
Gamefaqs Pick:
Twitter Pick:
WTF Pick:

I added a few more categories for funsies.

Popularity:Crash Bandicoot
Relevancy:idk
Importance:Master Chief
Nostalgia:Ryu Hayabusa
Uniqueness:Tetris
Fun Factor:Shantae
Hype Inducer:Dante
Meh-Low Key Add:dovahkiin
Sakurai Pick:Geno
Ninty Exec Pick:Byleth
Smashboards Pick:Baboom :D
Gamefaqs Pick:why them? they suck
Twitter Pick:bwd
WTF Pick:Goomba

 

[Izanagi97]

All I know is that leak posts are back on the menu... once people head back to work after a long nap either due to staying up late to party or because of hangovers from getting absolutely ****faced

 

[epicmartin7]

So don't trust picture and/or video leaks ever again, gotcha.

Cacomallow still stands on some legs though, as unless someone has broken the compression limit and then just sat on it for months without telling anybody else and/or contributing to the effort to crack the limit (EDIT: and that would be a super jerk move towards the Ultimate modding community, and I don't see how anybody hoards this info to themselves and doesn't capitalize on it for "early access" to limit-broken mods), it can't really have been the work of a modder to get such detailed models. But basically anything and everything coming now after is gonna be a crapshow to speculate on, as everything is going to have to be taken with a grain of salt now even if it ends up being a legitimate leak in hindsight.

The likelihood for someone to develop compression breaks just to make a fake leak I would argue is low. Very low. So low in fact, that the effort and time needed to break the limit would not even be paid off by making a fake leak.

To break Smash Ultimate's compression limits, you'd need some very capable coding skills and modify executable data. Think of it like Brawl. The game loads files via code modifications. The same would be needed here.

You need a fair bit of knowledge to accomplish it. It's not like just replacing a file. Debugging is required as your adding a function to the game it's not really meant to do.

 

[Animegamingnerd]

Welp, now that FP5 can be preperchased, I can already tell there are gonna be leak posts pretty soon. My only problem is that I won't be able to get my manga fix because mangadex is going down for maintenance and won't be back for a few days

Good thing I downloaded all of the post Anime chapters for Vinland Saga last night on my tablet last night.

 

[Ridrool64]

Video leaks depicting unique fighters we haven't seen yet are still basically guaranteed to be real, given they actually do fighting. It's a lot easier to fake idle animations than it is to fake entire movesets, and we've yet to see anybody actually try to fake a leak of that caliber, outside of using a Brawl moveset, and that is also easy to catch as a fake.

However Mii Costume video leaks can be faked, is what I'm getting out of this. And, while it's basically impossible to fake unique fighters for now, as mod support for the game improves eventually it might be doable to try to get a rise out of people.

 

[Animegamingnerd]

I'm gonna go #CacoMallowIsFake simply due to how many impressive fake leaks there have been in the Smash fandom.

 

[M@R!3]

Glad to see things beginning to move forward again. Hopefully it won't be too much longer before we know who FP5 is, and maybe we'll get some info about what comes next.

 

[Mamboo07]

I'm on #CacoMallowIsFake team.

 

[Deleted member]

I'm Team #CanWeReleaseFP5Already .

 

[Deleted member]

I’m Team #GoldenDeers #Indifferent

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Why the **** is Cacomallow still unironically being discussed the only arguments to hold it are "I want the characters involved" and "the attempts to recreate them are not a 1 for 1 despite a 1 for 1 only being possible if they had the files of the original" stop this stupid meme

 

[Mamboo07]

I'm Team #CanWeReleaseFP5Already .

Ah yes, a woman of culture.

 

[WeirdSandwich]

Popularity: Sora
Relevancy: Minecraft Steve
Importance: Doomguy
Nostalgia: Crash Bandicoot
Uniqueness: Master Hand as a permanently selectable fighter
Fun Factor: Hornet (Runner up: Reimu, who would be really fun to play as but probably frustrating to play against)
Hype Inducer: Master Chief (Kratos runner up)
Meh-Low Key Add: Any Fire Emblem
Sakurai Pick: Iori Yagami
Ninty Exec Pick: Travis Touchdown (Bayonetta situation)
Smashboards Pick: Geno
Gamefaqs Pick: No idea. It's been 12 years since I last looked at the forums. Lloyd?
Twitter Pick: Waluigi
WTF Pick: Tetronimoes

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Knock on wood.

NO NOT THAT O-*BOOOM!*

Dang it Sour, now I have to restart the world! You're lucky I have backups.

 

[Sour Supreme]

Why the **** is Cacomallow still unironically being discussed the only arguments to hold it are "I want the characters involved" and "the attempts to recreate them are not a 1 for 1 despite a 1 for 1 only being possible if they had the files of the original" stop this stupid meme

Its not heinous to humor ideas even if they don't hold solid credibility.

Of course people's interest in the characters keeps it alive... lol. It's interesting regardless of whether or not it's fake.

NO NOT THAT O-*BOOOM!*

Dang it Sour, now I have to restart the world! You're lucky I have backups.

If we could only manipulate time, perhaps this reality could still be salvaged... Quickly! To the Phase Distorter!

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Its not heinous to humor ideas even if they don't hold solid credibility.

Of course people's interest in the characters keeps it alive... lol. It's interesting regardless of whether or not it's fake.

I'd get that but at the same time it's been 2 months with multiple similar costumes being modded in with jiggles and all

 

[Sour Supreme]

I'd get that but at the same time it's been 2 months with multiple similar costumes being modded in with jiggles and all

I hear you. Definetely isn't a compelling attempt at a "leak". I just don't blame people for still bringing it up, considering the slipstream of information has been pretty bare as of late.

 

[Izanagi97]

I'm just keeping CacoMallow filed away as an unknown. Besides, I'd imagine it would be more fun to start off assuming something is fake and then trying to prove how it could be real instead of doing the opposite (assuming true then trying to prove how it could be fake)

 

[Deleted member]

Nintendo's disinterest on taking any Cacomallow leaks from YouTube is pretty much the biggest red flag that is most likely fake, when they have been active in taking down every other leak videos from the platform.

I understand the whole taking it down would give it away being legit, but when Nintendo modus operandi in the past is taking down legit leaks and this one involves other companies I see it difficult for Nintendo to do nothing if real.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Popularity: Steve
Relevancy: Steve
Importance: Steve
Nostalgia: Steve
Uniqueness: Steve
Fun Factor: Steve
Hype Inducer: Steve
Meh-Lowkey Add: I don’t care.
Sakurai Pick: Steve and Geno
Ninty Exec Pick: Waluigi
SmashBoards Pick: Geno
GameFAQs Pick: Vergeben
Twitter Pick: Steve
What the frick Pick: MissingNo.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I hear you. Definetely isn't a compelling attempt at a "leak". I just don't blame people for still bringing it up, considering the slipstream of information has been pretty bare as of late.

At the same time it's like talking about how the Grinch could still be real right now, which is my issue

 

[TheCJBrine]

At the same time it's like talking about how the Grinch could still be real right now, which is my issue

Cacomallow is likely fake, but it’s not like the Grinch Leak at all. It still has some chance of being real.

 

[Sour Supreme]

Cacomallow is likely fake, but it’s not like the Grinch Leak at all. It still has some chance of being real.

Yeah, I was gonna say. CacoMallow has at least an ounce of hope. Grinch ended up dead in the water, and the same could happen here. Likelihood and conjecture aside, it still isn't deconfirmed outright.

 

[Calamitas]

So FP5 is available for pre-purchase already? Interesting. It's worth mentioning though that the "New!" thingy on the Smash Bros. website is still up. Though then again, I don't really know how far in advance that gets removed usually.

 

[MilkCalf]

Is there any evidence for or against characters being deconfirmed if they are spirits?

 

[Krankees]

Is there any evidence for or against characters being deconfirmed if they are spirits?

Only for post launch spirits like Resident Evil. We would have a spirit board instead if we got Resident Evil dlc. However, I haven't found any evidence for Day 1 spirits.

 

[Calamitas]

Is there any evidence for or against characters being deconfirmed if they are spirits?

You sure you wanna open up that can of worms again? We just got done having a 10-page discussion about Fire Emblem.
At any rate, I'll bite a bit: We explicitly know that Vergeben asked his source about the possibility of first-party characters, Spirit promotions and Assist Trophy upgrades, because they were part of his huge kill list that he went back on a bit later. And when he did back down on it, all of those three were still in. Depending on how much you believe Vergeben, that alone should confirm that those are all on the table.

 

[MilkCalf]

You sure you wanna open up that can of worms again? We just got having a 10-page discussion about Fire Emblem.
At any rate, I'll bite a bit: We know explicitly know that Vergeben asked his source about the possibility of first-party character, Spirit promotions and Assist Trophy upgrades, because they were part of his huge kill list that he went back on a bit later. And when he did back down on it, all of those three were still in. Depending on how much you believe Vergeben, that alone should confirm that those are all on the table.

Just wanted to know if there was anything concrete. I'm not about rigorously pinning down everyone. Just wanted to know if my favourites, which some are spirits have s chance still.

 

[StormC]

Is there any evidence for or against characters being deconfirmed if they are spirits?

Depends on what you consider "evidence." The term "evidence" can either mean hard cold truth, or data that favors a certain perspective. Data can also be skewed to fit multiple perspectives depending on who is arguing and what they are using the data for.

Anyway, there's nothing concrete. I would argue there is nothing concrete saying why any character could not be added later as DLC. Most of speculation is based off of a combination of intuition, patterns, and guessing. I would say the chance of Spirit promotion exists, but I think there are only a few of those characters Sakurai/Nintendo would consider adding to begin with, so for the vast majority of characters, being a Spirit doesn't really mean anything has changed. However, if future picks are similar to the Fighters Pass (brand new third party guests), I would suspect the chance of a Spirit "promotion" is very slim. (I also think based off the previous four paid DLC characters, fighter 5 will almost definitely not be a Spirit, either.)

 

[Deleted member]

So FP5 is available for pre-purchase already? Interesting. It's worth mentioning though that the "New!" thingy on the Smash Bros. website is still up. Though then again, I don't really know how far in advance that gets removed usually.

If only someone datamined...

 

[Dukemon]

Doomguy as well Master Chief would fit very well. Both would be a male Samus Version with own animation and attack styles. And Master Chief would be like a WARdrobe on two legs and guns like Richter or Terry.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

If only someone datamined...

They do, they just haven't found anything

Is there any evidence for or against characters being deconfirmed if they are spirits?

The Fighter Pass was made and negotiated when the game was still in development so there's a damn good chance that FP5 isn't a spirit. After that however, nobody knows as Spirits do have a gameplay role similar to how Assists do, those both depend on if Sakurai is willing to do it

 

[Dinoman96]

Fighter Pass #5 absolutely isn't going to be anyone that's a spirit.

FP1: Persona, a previously unrepresented third party IP
FP2: Dragon Quest, a previously unrepresented third party IP
FP3: Banjo-Kazooie, a previously unrepresented third party IP
FP4: Fatal Fury, a previously unrepresented third party IP

I can't see FP5 somehow being any different.

The Fighters Pass was clearly in development alongside the base game, so if they were planning on including Geno or Shantae or whatever, then they wouldn't of made them spirits.

Of course, the question mark is what it means for the DLC after the FP, considering we'll be years off from the initial project plan. Personally though, I expect them to just keep pumping in more entirely new third party franchises.

 

[Deleted member]

They do, they just haven't found anything

Well, that's still the equivalent of having no progress at all. Just sayin'.