Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Gentlepanda]

eshop's challenger pack 5 can't be datamined from the eshop listing because smash DLC on the eshop isn't the actual character, it's just an unlock key for character data included via an update that doesn't exist yet

if they held actual character data in the eshop content, you wouldn't be able to play against anyone using DLC if you didn't first purchase the respective pack, which isn't how it works

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I'm glad FP5 speculation is coming to an end this month. I was getting burned out by it and much look forward to post-Pass DLC speculation. Gonna be sad when the ride is over hopefully WoL slot leak is true.

Though I'll still keep coming here because of all the great folks I've met on this site notably my reptilian brethren Zinith and other fellow kaiju fans JDCarbera and Mamboo07. ^_^

 

[SKX31]

Just wanted to know if there was anything concrete. I'm not about rigorously pinning down everyone. Just wanted to know if my favourites, which some are spirits have s chance still.

We'll just have to wait and see until a) Sakurai and co. announces what Post-Pass entails. If Spirit / AT promotions are a thing or not etc. Or. b) actual fighters have been shown.

Everything else (like leaks, developer comments and how the Switch and its games are faring; whether in established places or regions Nintendo's looking to expand into like China) should be treated with a grain of salt. Leaks / comments might miss the mark, and how well a game fares doesn't neccessarily translate to a character getting in.

eshop's challenger pack 5 can't be datamined from the eshop listing because smash DLC on the eshop isn't the actual character, it's just an unlock key for character data included via an update that doesn't exist yet

if they held actual character data in the eshop content, you wouldn't be able to play against anyone using DLC if you didn't first purchase the respective pack, which isn't how it works

Lemme guess.

Nintendo's gonna screw this up even harder somehow. Calling it after the SNK copyright.

 

[Deleted member]

I'm glad FP5 speculation is coming to an end this month. I was getting burned out by it and much look forward to post-Pass DLC speculation. Gonna be sad when the ride is over hopefully WoL slot leak is true.

Though I'll still keep coming here because of all the great folks I've met on this site notably my reptilian brethren Zinith and other fellow kaiju fans JDCarbera and Mamboo07. ^_^

Can't wait to post the legendary LOTR meme once it's all said and done.

And BTW, don't forget to add me to your kaiju brethren. You've got someone who loves it since she was fifth grade.

Lemme guess.

Nintendo's gonna screw this up even harder somehow. Calling it after the SNK copyright

To me, it rarely feels like a screw up and more "forced thy hand" thingy.

 

[RileyXY1]

Fighter Pass #5 absolutely isn't going to be anyone that's a spirit.

FP1: Persona, a previously unrepresented third party IP
FP2: Dragon Quest, a previously unrepresented third party IP
FP3: Banjo-Kazooie, a previously unrepresented third party IP
FP4: Fatal Fury, a previously unrepresented third party IP

I can't see FP5 somehow being any different.

The Fighters Pass was clearly in development alongside the base game, so if they were planning on including Geno or Shantae or whatever, then they wouldn't of made them spirits.

Of course, the question mark is what it means for the DLC after the FP, considering we'll be years off from the initial project plan. Personally though, I expect them to just keep pumping in more entirely new third party franchises.

I don't think that all of the DLC characters will be from entirely new third party franchises because they would eventually be drowned in licensing fees.

 

[Wrathful_Scythe]

I don't think that all of the DLC characters will be from entirely new third party franchises because they would eventually be drowned in licensing fees.

Maybe not all the DLC but this pass has shown a pattern. Then again, trusting in patterns is just like believing in dubious leaks: Pointless until the actual announcement.

 

[Deleted member]

I don't think that all of the DLC characters will be from entirely new third party franchises because they would eventually be drowned in licensing fees.

Come to think of it, those fees would probably be mitigated by the sales of the Fighters Pass, and of Smash Ultimate itself. Unless they have to ask companies that demand a bigger price, I wouldn't see it as too deep of a problem.

If so, then it would be a good choice for Nintendo to do 1st parties again. Doing so would definitely end the stigma the entire fanbase is put under. You'll make said characters' fans happy and you got good cash. While it would be a tread to want more third parties in this case, it would be quite more free to speculate on since the pool of available characters is much, much bigger. Unlike right now when most of what we talk about are third parties.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

And BTW, don't forget to add me to your kaiju brethren. You've got someone who loves it since she was fifth grade.

Ah yes I forgotten my apologies there.

We should also all call ourselves a certain group.

 

[RileyXY1]

Maybe not all the DLC but this pass has shown a pattern. Then again, trusting in patterns is just like believing in dubious leaks: Pointless until the actual announcement.

However, this pass has no bearing on future DLC unrelated to the pass. There's also the issue of the stage selection screen. Unless they add a new tab or expand it, there will be no more characters from new franchises after FP5.

 

[Wrathful_Scythe]

However, this pass has no bearing on future DLC unrelated to the pass. There's also the issue of the stage selection screen. Unless they add a new tab or expand it, there will be no more characters from new franchises after FP5.

True, I was refering to FP5 specifically, not the future DLC. FP5 might fall into the pattern, the rest doesn't.

 

[SKX31]

However, this pass has no bearing on future DLC unrelated to the pass. There's also the issue of the stage selection screen. Unless they add a new tab or expand it, there will be no more characters from new franchises after FP5.

What's saying that it doesn't have a bearing? If Sakurai doesn't like the FP format enough to justify it, then he and the others will likely change Post-Pass' structure to a looser model of negotiations (perhaps with individual companies) and releases. Which impacts Post-Pass. If Sakurai decides to keep the format that'll affect the Post-Pass too since the FP model implies a deadline for negotations.

Also, there is precedence for adding a new tab - both when it comes to stages (Brawl and 4) and even characters if they absolutely need to (3DS). Won't count it out completely really.

 

[osby]

If so, then it would be a good choice for Nintendo to do 1st parties again. Doing so would definitely end the stigma the entire fanbase is put under. You'll make said characters' fans happy and you got good cash. While it would be a tread to want more third parties in this case, it would be quite more free to speculate on since the pool of available characters is much, much bigger. Unlike right now when most of what we talk about are third parties.

I don't think Nintendo cares about speculation community that much.

However, this pass has no bearing on future DLC unrelated to the pass. There's also the issue of the stage selection screen. Unless they add a new tab or expand it, there will be no more characters from new franchises after FP5.

UI can always be redesigned, like how some menus changed after we got new modes. Nintendo and Sakurai refraining from adding new franchises just because SSC doesn't feel likely.

Also, this pass sold like crazy, so it'll probably have at least some sort of effect on consideration for future DLC selection.

 

[Mamboo07]

Ah yes I forgotten my apologies there.

We should also all call ourselves a certain group.

What about me, I'm a big fan of Godzilla.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

What about me, I'm a big fan of Godzilla.

I mentioned you alongside JDCabera. Look above my earlier posts.

 

[Fenriraga]

So there are people saying that pre-purchasing a single pack isn't anything new???

I've never seen or heard anything like it before. So I'm confused. A friend of mine who didn't get the pass has tried to get every DLC character as they've come out, but has never been able to because it takes them a moment to update the shop with the Fighter. Is he just not paying attention or...?

 

[Mamboo07]

I mentioned you alongside JDCabera. Look above my earlier posts.

Thanks.

 

[Curious Villager]

There's also the issue of the stage selection screen. Unless they add a new tab or expand it, there will be no more characters from new franchises after FP5.

Spoiler

I think there is more than enough room for a third tab if you ask me.
In fact, it kind of looks like the perfectly sized empty space to the right was deliberate, but maybe that's just me...

 

[Gentlepanda]

In fact, it kind of looks like the perfectly sized empty space to the right was deliberate, but maybe that's just me...

the empty space is used for disabling custom stages in random stage toggle

 

[Curious Villager]

the empty space is used for disabling custom stages in random stage toggle

I'm referring to the empty space at the top right corner.

 

[XorahnGaia]

If we are to believe that in the eventuality that aSpirit and/or an AT would be upgrated into a playable fighter, the developer team would just ignore the pre-existing Spirit/AT of that character citing and as a precedent, then i don't see why everyone is so fixated on there being no more space for additional stages when they could repeat what they already did in Sm4sh and just put the extra stages in a new tab.

Both of this are sign of the team not having a predetermined DLC Plan for the game, which seems to be the case for Fighter #76 and beyond.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

I wonder how pissed off people would be if there is a new smash game but its a traditional fighter made by Arc System Works

 

[Deleted member]

I wonder how pissed off people would be if there is a new smash game but its a traditional fighter made by Arc System Works

I don't mind. As long as its good.

 

[Flyboy]

I wonder how pissed off people would be if there is a new smash game but its a traditional fighter made by Arc System Works

Genuinely a Capcom vs. game with Nintendo characters or a traditional 2D fighter with the Smash cast is my dream game, so

 

[RileyXY1]

I think that Spirit promotions are inevitable, especially if the CacoMallow leak turns out to be real.

 

[Gentlepanda]

seems worth noting that the SKU numbers might not actually mean much for predicting direct dates

As someone who works for gamestop, these skus have been here for awhile. My Buddy who works at another store said these ave been here for month since he remembers the Sku Numbers from the last time he checked awhile back. https://t.co/iW1SYHwYf1

— matty matt (@Govnaah) January 2, 2020

the richter/dark samus amiibo patch hinting at a 7.0 release date for smash also seems shaky to me, as hero's associated amiibos (that many people thought signified his release date in mid-july) actually released 15 or so days before he did

 

[MasterOfKnees]

I wonder how pissed off people would be if there is a new smash game but its a traditional fighter made by Arc System Works

ArcSys' excellent visuals would probably go a long way to make people accept it, I can imagine a lot of people would be mad until they see their favorite character's intros, outros and supers lol. With that said, traditional fighters are always going to be more niche, so if the series were to suddenly alienate a significant portion of its playerbase like that I think people would be rightfully disappointed, even if I would be hype for it personally.

 

[PeridotGX]

I wonder how pissed off people would be if there is a new smash game but its a traditional fighter made by Arc System Works

I'm not a huge fan of traditional fighting games, but I'd still try it. Worst case scenario, I just stay playing Ultimate.

 

[Deleted member]

Hey guys what’s...

>see’s posts about spirits having no chance

*sigh*

How many times will I be hearing this during smash speculation?

I just want this fan rule to end. I just want my shantae

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

seems worth noting that the SKU numbers might not actually mean much for predicting direct dates

so the community read to hard into something again, how shocking

 

[TheAJJohnson]

Did I miss something? There is more than one new page of speculation talk.

 

[Deleted member]

hero's associated amiibos (that many people thought signified his release date in mid-july) actually released 15 or so days before he did

I seem to recall some people saying "amiibo theory has yet to be proven wrong."

Was never valid to begin with I love it.

 

[MooMew64]

seems worth noting that the SKU numbers might not actually mean much for predicting direct dates

As someone who works for gamestop, these skus have been here for awhile. My Buddy who works at another store said these ave been here for month since he remembers the Sku Numbers from the last time he checked awhile back. https://t.co/iW1SYHwYf1

— matty matt (@Govnaah) January 2, 2020

the richter/dark samus amiibo patch hinting at a 7.0 release date for smash also seems shaky to me, as hero's associated amiibos (that many people thought signified his release date in mid-july) actually released 15 or so days before he did

Oh well.

Back to the February train.

 

[Fenriraga]

Eh, January still makes sense to me, if only because January directs have been a pretty frequent occurance.

I think it'll be a Direct Mini, though.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Hey guys what’s...

>see’s posts about spirits having no chance

*sigh*

How many times will I be hearing this during smash speculation?

I just want this fan rule to end. I just want my shantae

The fanrule will end when it's broken and it hasn't been broken yet.

 

[Garteam]

I wonder how pissed off people would be if there is a new smash game but its a traditional fighter made by Arc System Works

I'd like this, but a lot of people would probably be upset that Smash is only 2 players now, among other issues. Not even the competetive community, the people who this decision would presumably appeal to, would be super happy. If fans had a hard time adapting from Melee to Brawl due to changes in the physics engine, I have no idea how many people would adapt from Ultimate to a completely different genre.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

I don't think that all of the DLC characters will be from entirely new third party franchises because they would eventually be drowned in licensing fees.

It's much easier to deal with licensing fees than in base game since they're only specific to an amount sold of that specific DLC, whereas licensing fees for base game usually take a more noticeable chunk of the game itself, and they still went with all this third party content in base game. Once you factor that in alongside just how damn well the Fighter's Pass has sold and that they've had no problem getting 8 third parties across two games of DLC, and I just don't think this is ever going to be a huge issue.

As for a Stage Select Screen, that's one of the easiest things for a developer to solve and it would be really weird for Sakurai to just suddenly limit himself to existing franchises (and I'll say this again, adding new universes only helps the continued health of Smash going forward in terms of continued interest, coming back to existing franchises is going to probably result in less interest over time and a sooner end to DLC, so I'd be super surprised to see such a turn after the consistent success of new franchises, and more specifically third parties in Smash).

Hey guys what’s...

>see’s posts about spirits having no chance

*sigh*

How many times will I be hearing this during smash speculation?

I just want this fan rule to end. I just want my shantae

I mean, you're a month away from the argument being irrelevant. The point of all Spirits disconfirm was always positioned around the fact base game and DLC were conceptualized together. Once the Fighter's Pass has concluded, that fundamental piece of the argument is basically gone and they're more fair game.

But Indies are still going to be in a weird spot to be honest, so we'll have to see on that front.

 

[BernkastelWitch]

I think when it comes to Smash, the only fanrule is...

Expect the unexpected.

Because between Smash 4 and Smash Ultimate, they kept defying expectations each and every time. Every time there's some new fanrule up to try and narrow down suspects, these fanrules keep getting broken. The only actual rule for a 3rd party inclusion is they must have originated from a Video Game. That's it.

Of course seeing peoples reactions when a supposed fanrule is destroyed is always amusing.

 

[Deleted member]

Expect the unexpected.

EXPECT THE UNEXPECTABLE

MOVIE! MOVIE! MOVIE!

 

[Dinoman96]

I just simply can't see a world where Shantae is made playable while Shovel Knight and Undertale are only ATs/Mii costumes.

"But she's been around longer!" Yeah, so what? SK and especially UT are miles ahead of her in terms of popularity and they couldn't make it to playable status.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I just simply can't see a world where Shantae is made playable while Shovel Knight and Undertale are only ATs/Mii costumes.

"But she's been around longer!" Yeah, so what? SK and especially UT are miles ahead of her in terms of popularity and they couldn't make it to playable status.

Didn't Sakurai say that what matters more for a character is if they have moveset potential not just popularity?

Shantae has a lot more moveset potential than the other 2.