Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Curious Villager]

I'm like 90% sure FP5 is not who everyone thinks it's gonna be, especially with people being so caught up with the idea TGA means it's gotta be a big western pick.

Y'all ain't ready for Koei-Tecmo or Bamco to hit you with somethin' weeb is all I'm sayin'.

Its gonna be Jibanyan isn't it?

Edit:

It's really gonna be Layton huh?

Welp...

 

[DMTN]

I don't think we are going to get 1st party DLC characters. Definitely not in the Fighters Pass. But if I HAD to bet money on one, it would be Porky. Either him or Rex. I think Porky has a slight edge over Rex, because Porky's absence is stranger.

 

[osby]

I don't think we are going to get 1st party DLC characters. Definitely not in the Fighters Pass. But if I HAD to bet money on one, it would be Porky. Either him or Rex. I think Porky has a slight edge over Rex, because Porky's absence is stranger.

Sakurai isn't going to make a character playable just because they are "absent".

Look at Isaac in Smash 4.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I don't think we are going to get 1st party DLC characters. Definitely not in the Fighters Pass. But if I HAD to bet money on one, it would be Porky. Either him or Rex. I think Porky has a slight edge over Rex, because Porky's absence is stranger.

What do you mean absent he's in the Absolutely Safe Capsule

 

[Guynamednelson]

I don't think we are going to get 1st party DLC characters. Definitely not in the Fighters Pass. But if I HAD to bet money on one, it would be Porky. Either him or Rex. I think Porky has a slight edge over Rex, because Porky's absence is stranger.

If a character with a spirit that has more demand has a chance, Porky is screwed.

 

[DMTN]

Sakurai isn't going to make a character playable just because they are "absent".

Look at Isaac in Smash 4.

Forgot all about poor Isaac.
I guess you're right about the absence part. That would mean Sakurai planned the post-pass DLC a few years in advance, which is most likely not the case. What I was more trying to say is that Porky is currently not fulfilling some other role, which is far from a confirmation, but it helps a little bit.
In the end, Sakurai does what he wants, so these patterns won't matter in the long run.

 

[Flyboy]

A fighter from a third party with mainstream appeal, covers a genre that is unrepped, could come with tons of music and fan service, is tied to Nintendo, and yet isn't a "hype bomb" like AC or Halo or Doom while still being popular in the Smash fanbase?

Oh yeah. Phoenix Wright is in.

No, it doesn’t, but my point is that Assassin’s Creed does absolutely nothing special or notable beyond sell well

bruh

 

[Iko MattOrr]

It's also just a reality that a lot of the support for first parties has collapsed during the Ultimate speculation cycle. Look at any more recent poll, and they're still dominated by third parties because people are just more interested in them (and not because "they're considered more likely," people genuinely support these characters). Nintendo is paying attention to how these things play out in regards to sales and attention, and it's clear that third parties have proved themselves to be successful picks for Smash vs a great deal of the first parties at this point.

Each one of those characters can be analyzed on an individual basis and see why they didn't get into the game, base or DLC:

• ARMS - An unproven IP at the time the design documents was drafted and a game that largely skated by on being an early Switch title when there was little else to play. It has honestly been comparable to 1-2 Switch in regards of the floor just falling out from under the game and it has proven to be the opposite of an evergreen title for Nintendo. It's not clear if ARMS has much of a future at all even if the game was generally a success during 2017.
• Rhythm Heaven - The series has never been a huge series for Nintendo and it just doesn't have a massive fan base really pushing for it. It has fans, but nothing to the degree that we see with those big ballot winners like Ridley and King K. Rool. And the series has not managed to show any improvement at all in regards to sales or even public consciousness since the DS release and has generally fallen further and further off the radar.
• Kirby - It's not clear that Sakurai sees the same need to represent modern Kirby that Kirby fans are determined to see. Sakurai seems more than happy to keep giving Kirby additional content through other means besides characters as well, and it's really doubtful that Sakurai cares about the whole "characters first" mentality that fans are so frequently using in the first place.
• Zelda - There has never been a consensus in regards to who people want. It has changed significantly with every Smash release, and the only consistent idea that Zelda fans seem to have been able to rally behind was "Ganondorf with a sword." It's clear that organized support campaigns for a single character are far more successful than a generalized "more of this franchise" type push. Again, the Zelda series also got a huge amount of love through other means than playable characters with redesigns, music, one of two franchises to get a brand new stage, etc.
• Dixie Kong - Fans pushed for King K. Rool by a pretty wide margin, so he was chosen over her. And then they didn't exactly flock back to Dixie Kong after that. She may be a more notable icon in many ways than most other Nintendo characters missing, but the DK fan base doesn't seem to have gravitated towards her in any meaningful ways really.
• Krystal - Her support collapsed post Brawl and has never been able to recover, nor has she made any appearances since then. It's pretty easy to see why she wasn't included.
• WarioWare - The series has never had strong support for a character until Ashley got her month of fame in 2018, only to also completely collapse in the wake of the August Direct and her "deconfirmation." WarioWare has also largely become less and less relevant and popular as a series, so that sort of trend isn't going to inspire a new character.
• Chibi-Robo - Nintendo literally killed him and his series over the course of the past decade lol. And he just doesn't have the fan support to make up for that massive issue either.

The issue is that many of these options just don't have the support they need to be a big enough deal to the community, especially now that third party characters are not only seen as entirely realistic, but the preferred option by much of the fan base. Base Ultimate had extremely limited "slots" for newcomers, and the Nintendo characters occupied 5 of those 6 unique newcomers pushing recent characters and fan demanded ones with a "fun" Piranha Plant DLC later on. Sakurai really did try to give people what they wanted in the major ways base game from the Nintendo side of things within the limits of Ultimate's necessary lower additions. And I think it's especially important to consider the fact that Sakurai doesn't see Smash the same way fans do. He's not committed to the characters "first" mentality and sees all representation as important and relevant.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Dixie Kong, Chibi-Robo, and a Rhythm Heaven character in Smash. They'd be great options if we have to go to first party options for any reason... but it's easy to see why these characters haven't made it in during the Ultimate cycle I think. Kirby I'll give a little more room to as something that could end up with another character, specifically because Bandanna Dee is one of the few first parties to maintain his base in the post Fighter's Pass world and Dixie Kong could also easily see a "bonus character" type situation since she can be based off of Diddy to some extent. I don't think first parties are impossible, I just do think Nintendo has turned their focus largely elsewhere due to the success of third party DLC and for me personally, despite liking several first parties, I'm just less interested in them compared to most third parties that also seem so much more ambitious and I'm just more interested in seeing Smash continue to expand its scope and go out of its way to become this "museum of Japanese gaming."

A very late reply, sorry for that.
I agree with what you said, I won't deny that.
My point is that I personally prefered the way it was before; I totally understand why they do it this way now, why they focus on third parties more; it makes sense.

It's just that I feel a bit neglected as a fan, seeing Smash full of characters I care almost nothing about, since a big part of the reason why I became a Smash fan was because the game included all the characters I liked from Nintendo (for the gameplay too, but the gameplay didn't change much since Brawl). The old characters are still in, offcourse, but the point is, I have no interest in getting the new game because the characters I love the most are already in the prequel, and I already have it. At this point, the only reason to buy a new Smash game for me is in order to be able to play online with an active community (and I have to buy Nintendo Online for that, something that I'm not planning to as for now; in future maybe).

 

[dezeray112]

Gordon's officially dead for FP5 in case anyone really thought it was possible. Verge has spoken.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78195785?page=3#33

Well, thats another leak which bit the dust.

 

[Captain Fun]

I don’t think characters like Porky are so big that their omission really stands out. The fighters pass has all been 3rd party main characters from franchises new to Smash, and I don’t see that changing.

Hell, even if we got 1st party DLC, I still wouldn’t count on Porky.

 

[osby]

I don’t think characters like Porky are so big that their omission really stands out. The fighters pass has all been 3rd party main characters from franchises new to Smash, and I don’t see that changing.

Hell, even if we got 1st party DLC, I still wouldn’t count on Porky.

* Will is typing *

 

[Door Key Pig]

Ain't Dante kinda deconfirmed if not because of that base game era Tweet where that Capcom guy was like "no, he's not in Smash lol", then because of the creator talking about him like "Well Devil May Cry isn't on Switch so I imagine that's a courtesy to appear in Smash" when the Fighter's Pass was already chosen?

No, it doesn’t, but my point is that Assassin’s Creed does absolutely nothing special or notable beyond sell well, and it doesn’t sell well in Japan either. Yes it has crossed over with some Japanese franchises and done better than some other Western franchises, but not by much and its Japanese sales figures convey a less than stellar picture (and those most definitely matter more than US for these crossovers).

It’s not an influential or particularly notable series in any way beyond it sells well in the West; its a Western develop, recent series with little Japanese presence; and it has never been a popular choice for any part of the Smash fandom. I think it’s appropriately slept on by most of speculation.

So you're saying him and Rayman/Rabbids are on that same level of unlikeliness then?

Also EricTheGamerman , do you feel that Dixie's Mii costume hat in Ultimate's base game eliminates any chance of her getting in as some sort of "easier DLC" down the line? If not, could there be similar hope for Tails or for Rex?

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Ain't Dante kinda deconfirmed if not because of that base game era Tweet where that Capcom guy was like "no, he's not in Smash lol", then because of the creator talking about him like "Well Devil May Cry isn't on Switch so I imagine that's a courtesy to appear in Smash" when the Fighter's Pass was already chosen?

Why are people always forgetting what Kirkhope said about?

 

[MooMew64]

I'm still not convinced that FP5 isn't Gooigi.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I don't think it's Ezio. Assassin's Creed has basically no presence in Japan, which hurts it a lot I imagine, nor does it actually hold a lot of relevant gaming history (it has just sold very well, but it largely has done very little to innovate or even really move the wider industry), nor are Ezio or any of the characters requested for Smash. I just don't really see Assassin's Creed as a particularly likely option, and i think it's slept on for good reason.

Same could had been said forin the West who was added due to demand by the East.

 

[BlackInk]

I'm still not convinced that FP5 isn't Gooigi.

That’s pretty random.

Same could had been said forin the West who was added due to demand by the East.

Nintendo is mainly aimed at the eastern market.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Here are the top 10 most viewed Pokémon on Serebii since launch

1. Toxtricity
2. Dragapult
3. Toxel
4. Grimmsnarl
5. Applin
6. Corviknight
7. Dreepy
8. Flapple
9. Appletun
10. Cinderace

— Joe Merrick (@JoeMerrick) November 25, 2019

I think we may get some frontrunners for if a SwoShi mon happens after all

 

[MooMew64]

Here are the top 10 most viewed Pokémon on Serebii since launch

1. Toxtricity
2. Dragapult
3. Toxel
4. Grimmsnarl
5. Applin
6. Corviknight
7. Dreepy
8. Flapple
9. Appletun
10. Cinderace

— Joe Merrick (@JoeMerrick) November 25, 2019

I think we may get some frontrunners for if a SwoShi mon happens after all

*Cinderace in top ten*

Oh yeah, it's all coming together.

 

[BlackInk]

Here are the top 10 most viewed Pokémon on Serebii since launch

1. Toxtricity
2. Dragapult
3. Toxel
4. Grimmsnarl
5. Applin
6. Corviknight
7. Dreepy
8. Flapple
9. Appletun
10. Cinderace

— Joe Merrick (@JoeMerrick) November 25, 2019

I think we may get some frontrunners for if a SwoShi mon happens after all

“ Dragapult”
I hope they pick him. It has the most potential.

 

[PK-remling Fire]

Here are the top 10 most viewed Pokémon on Serebii since launch

1. Toxtricity
2. Dragapult
3. Toxel
4. Grimmsnarl
5. Applin
6. Corviknight
7. Dreepy
8. Flapple
9. Appletun
10. Cinderace

— Joe Merrick (@JoeMerrick) November 25, 2019

I think we may get some frontrunners for if a SwoShi mon happens after all

I'm glad since Toxicitry, Dragpult, and Grimmsnarl are some of the only Gen 8 designs I actually like, along with Sirfetch'd and Duraludon. I wouldn't really mind if any of them got in.

Spoiler

Though if a gen 8 pokemon did get in, it'd probably just be one of the starters -_-

 

[stixie]

Finally, I have found my people.
Yuri Lowell gang rise up.

View attachment 246654

I think Lloyd has a chance over Yuri but I'd be fine with either one. Both are great characters and Tales some of my all time favorite games.

 

[BlackInk]

I'm glad since Toxicitry, Dragpult, and Grimmsnarl are some of the only Gen 8 designs I actually like, along with Sirfetch'd and Duraludon. I wouldn't really mind if any of them got in.

Spoiler

Though if a gen 8 pokemon did get in, it'd probably just be one of the starters -_-

I doubt they’ll actually pick the starters. Dragpult and Toxicity are obviously way better choices as reps.

 

[MooMew64]

While Cinderace is my personal choice...

Honestly, just put any Gen 8 Pokemon in Smash. They rocked it with the designs in Galar, any of them would be hype.

 

[Opossum]

I don't think it's Ezio. Assassin's Creed has basically no presence in Japan, which hurts it a lot I imagine, nor does it actually hold a lot of relevant gaming history (it has just sold very well, but it largely has done very little to innovate or even really move the wider industry), nor are Ezio or any of the characters requested for Smash. I just don't really see Assassin's Creed as a particularly likely option, and i think it's slept on for good reason.

“Assassin’s Creed has a core following in Japan, and it is one of the most successful Western series in Japan. There are many fans who like the historical settings, the fashion, detail in the buildings, and also they appreciate the full localization that goes into the Japanese version."

- Steve Miller, General Manager of Ubisoft Asia.

 

[Deleted member]

Frankly, I believe Spirits are not really what's keeping characters from appesring but rather the overall content that is already on the game. If characters in the future continue the current trend of new stage + spirits + music, I simply cannot see that amount and quality of content being brought would equal the ones currently in the pass.

Sure, you can grab stages and content from series in the game but is not on the same level of quality as the current DLC we are currently getting. As the content featured from these franchises would pick from, would be arguably less popular/well-known from the content we have already in the game. Only way I can see this changing would be that the new fighters are in a Corrin-like situation in which they don't feature a stage or spirits with maybe one or two tracks of music, and speakinf of FE its the only series I could expect to get around this issue due to no 3H content being in the game.

Part of what makes the pass so exciting right now, is that it feels like a return to the NES/SNES era in which you had multiple franchises and companies to choose from when you bought a Nintendo console and not only Nintendo games.

 

[KatKit]

No, it doesn’t, but my point is that Assassin’s Creed does absolutely nothing special or notable beyond sell well, and it doesn’t sell well in Japan either. Yes it has crossed over with some Japanese franchises and done better than some other Western franchises, but not by much and its Japanese sales figures convey a less than stellar picture (and those most definitely matter more than US for these crossovers).

It’s not an influential or particularly notable series in any way beyond it sells well in the West; its a Western develop, recent series with little Japanese presence; and it has never been a popular choice for any part of the Smash fandom. I think it’s appropriately slept on by most of speculation.

First things first... ya have to stop saying it doesn't sell well in Japan. Relatively speaking, particularly with its latest entry, it sells well in Japan. Not everything over there is going to sell like Mario and Final Fantasy; Assassin's Creed has topped weekly charts in Japan. That is a feat in and of itself. You're downplaying its accomplishments. Moreover, we have people mentioning its Soul Calibur (Bandai Namco), Metal Gear (Konami), Final Fantasy (SquareEnix), and Monster Hunter (Capcom) crossovers, and you still think it has little presence over there? Whether you believe it was included mostly for a Western audience or not, it's already crossed paths with most of the other 3rd party developers with playable reps in Smash. Ubisoft has a pretty great relationship with Nintendo, too.

It's one of, if not the biggest modern videogame IPs. It has comics, novels, an upcoming TV show, a boatload of crossovers, etc. It does more than sell well; it's a cultural phenomenon. In any case, SNK wasn't a popular choice in the Smash fandom, and Persona was out of left field, too. That didn't stop them from happening.

Furthermore, saying it wasn't influential is flat-out wrong, amigo. Other open-world series have adapted its various gameplay mechanics to their own in some capacity. Do you know how many critically acclaimed games copied Eagle Vision alone?

 

[Flyboy]

Part of what makes the pass so exciting right now, is that it feels like a return to the NES/SNES era in which you had multiple franchises and companies to choose from when you bought a Nintendo console and not only Nintendo games.

This is a fantastic point. The Switch has brought developers back to Nintendo. The reason characters like Mega Man or Simon Belmont or Hero being in Smash was such a big deal was because they felt tied to Nintendo in that way. Seeing Smash branch out has brought that feeling back for me but in a different way. It's like inviting new friends to the party, or in Banjo's case making up with an old friend. I really enjoyed the earnest discussion of Gordon Freeman we just had, or how characters like Sans and Shovel Knight and The Knight from Hollow Knight are seen as very "Nintendo" characters. It's fun.

I like being able to think "Yeah, I'm gonna pick up Pirate Warriors 4 on my Switch when it comes out". I can enjoy the new Mario, the new Zelda, and then I can play stuff like Minecraft and Undertale and Dragon Quest as well. It's really neat.

 

[cothero]

Gordon's officially dead for FP5 in case anyone really thought it was possible. Verge has spoken.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78195785?page=3#33

We all knew that to some extend, but he just said the leak is fake, he didn't implied that Gordon isn't character #5 (i'm 100% convinced that no one knows anything at this point)

 

[Ura]

Frankly, I believe Spirits are not really what's keeping characters from appesring but rather the overall content that is already on the game. If characters in the future continue the current trend of new stage + spirits + music, I simply cannot see that amount and quality of content being brought would equal the ones currently in the pass.

Sure, you can grab stages and content from series in the game but is not on the same level of quality as the current DLC we are currently getting. As the content featured from these franchises would pick from, would be arguably less popular/well-known from the content we have already in the game. Only way I can see this changing would be that the new fighters are in a Corrin-like situation in which they don't feature a stage or spirits with maybe one or two tracks of music, and speakinf of FE its the only series I could expect to get around this issue due to no 3H content being in the game.

Part of what makes the pass so exciting right now, is that it feels like a return to the NES/SNES era in which you had multiple franchises and companies to choose from when you bought a Nintendo console and not only Nintendo games.

Sure, the trend is adding a stage, music tracks, and spirits but I would be hard pressed to think it would be damning for any franchise going forward post-pass. Especially if Sakurai wills it so with any franchise if he wanted it enough.

And besides, most of those series have like a Mii Costume, a track or two, or a few spirits. It wouldn't be a stretch to just add more of them. Especially for the franchises that haven't had all their bases covered with music tracks/spirits and have more content to bring.

 

[Opossum]

We all knew that to some extend, but he just said the leak is fake, he didn't implied that Gordon isn't character #5 (i'm 100% convinced that no one knows anything at this point)

He did on the next page, actually.

 

[JustMyself13]

Why are people always forgetting what Kirkhope said about?

Kirkhope lying doesn’t mean everyone is lying. Kirkhope straight up denying and deconfirming Banjo is also different than Itsuno saying that DMC should come to switch first, as at no point does he actually mention Dante’s status as a fighter directly.

 

[Flyboy]

First things first... ya have to stop saying it doesn't sell well in Japan. Relatively speaking, particularly with its latest entry, it sells well in Japan. Not everything over there is going to sell like Mario and Final Fantasy; Assassin's Creed has topped weekly charts in Japan. That is a feat in and of itself. You're downplaying its accomplishments. Moreover, we have people mentioning its Soul Calibur (Bandai Namco), Metal Gear (Konami), Final Fantasy (SquareEnix), and Monster Hunter (Capcom) crossovers, and you still think it has little presence over there? Whether you believe it was included mostly for a Western audience or not, it's already crossed paths with most of the other 3rd party developers in Smash. Ubisoft has a pretty great relationship with Nintendo, too.

It's one of, if not the biggest modern videogame IPs. It has comics, novels, an upcoming TV show, a boatload of crossovers, etc. It does more than sell well; it's a cultural phenomenon. In any case, SNK wasn't a popular choice in the Smash fandom, and Persona was out of left field, too. That didn't stop them from happening.

Furthermore, saying it wasn't influential is flat-out wrong, amigo. Other open-world series have adapted its various gameplay mechanics to their own in some capacity. Do you know how many games copied Eagle Vision alone?

To add on to that, Ezio's outfit and the AC series even has references in anime. The first episode of Chio's School Road was a giant parody of Assassin's Creed that completely blindsided me (and was absolutely hilarious to boot). Also, Assassin's Creed Odyssey is playable on the Switch (via game streaming)...specifically in Japan.

It's known, to say the least.

 

[dezeray112]

Cinderace is one of the designs that I personally liked out of the evolved Generation VIII starters.

But as MooMew64 said, I'd be fine with any of the other Gen VIII Pokemon making it in.

 

[Nquoid]

Here are the top 10 most viewed Pokémon on Serebii since launch

1. Toxtricity
2. Dragapult
3. Toxel
4. Grimmsnarl
5. Applin
6. Corviknight
7. Dreepy
8. Flapple
9. Appletun
10. Cinderace

— Joe Merrick (@JoeMerrick) November 25, 2019

I think we may get some frontrunners for if a SwoShi mon happens after all

Whilst I'm still going to pull for a Grass starter (preferably Sceptile at this point), Toxtricity being playable in a Pokken 2 would be GREAT

 

[ArchRanger]

We all knew that to some extend, but he just said the leak is fake, he didn't implied that Gordon isn't character #5 (i'm 100% convinced that no one knows anything at this point)

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78195785?jumpto=41#41
He immediately followed up and confirmed that Gordan is not #5.

 

[DarthEnderX]

I'm glad since Toxicitry, Dragpult, and Grimmsnarl are some of the only Gen 8 designs I actually like

Grimmsnarl is one of the most unpleasant Pokemon designs ever...

Still in my party cause of that typing tho...

I've already hit credits with my team of Intelleon, Corviknight, Toxtricity, Coalossal, Frosmoth and Grimmsnarl.

 

[cothero]

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78195785?jumpto=41#41
He immediately followed up and confirmed that Gordan is not #5.

Same old Vergeben. He keeps deconfirming characters, but never say anything until his sources are certain. I hope he doesn't deconfirm Leon next, for God's sake.

 

[Calamitas]

Here are the top 10 most viewed Pokémon on Serebii since launch

1. Toxtricity
2. Dragapult
3. Toxel
4. Grimmsnarl
5. Applin
6. Corviknight
7. Dreepy
8. Flapple
9. Appletun
10. Cinderace

— Joe Merrick (@JoeMerrick) November 25, 2019

I think we may get some frontrunners for if a SwoShi mon happens after all

Applin, Flappin and Appletun all in?

APPLE TIME, BABEY

 

[Deleted member]

Same old Vergeben. He keeps deconfirming characters, but never say anything until his sources are certain. I hope he doesn't deconfirm Leon next, for God's sake.

>Vergeben deconfirms Leon


>That just means Jill doesn't compete with Leon

 

[JustMyself13]

Same old Vergeben. He keeps deconfirming characters, but never say anything until his sources are certain. I hope he doesn't deconfirm Leon next, for God's sake.

Honestly, what’s stopping these insiders from just saying a general statement like “I have a gut feeling the next fighter might be from Capcom or Namco, leaning more towards Capcom though” to hint at who it could be. It’s not a leak specifically but still aids speculation.