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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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perfectchaos83

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Setting aside everything, there is one thing that makes me doubt a Tales character: prestige.

Tales has been a decently successful series, but it never feels like the series has broken out critically. Games like Persona 5 and DQ11 were GOTY contenders and considered two of the best JRPGs ever (and the DQ franchise is obviously a cultural behemoth in Japan). Banjo-Kazooie was a highly anticipated game from Rareware at their peak and is seen as a cornerstone of the N64's library and 3D platforming genre in general. And games like Metal Gear Solid and Final Fantasy VII speak for themselves.

Has Tales ever had a game like that? A game where people in the industry chat it up and talk about it as one of the greatest games of all time? I think Vesperia comes closest to that, but the buzz isn't like Persona 5 or DQ11. I think the Tales games are generally considered solid, but nothing extraordinary; they haven't had their breakout title yet. It's kind of a B series for Namco.

Obviously Sakurai has never said "if a character doesn't have a 90 on metacritic they're deconfirmed" but it's something I've been thinking about.
For me, and the predictions I've made, It's been less about prestige/notoriety and more looking at fanbases which have little overlap with Smash in general. The only exceptions I gave to this were Banjo and, technically, Lloyd (these were predictions I made solely to appease your typical smash fan from 100% hating the Fighter's Pass). Nintendo has made it rather apparent that expanding demographics for the Switch and Smash is one of the things they are aiming to do this year. I suppose this also gets into one of the main reasons I don't predict a Capcom rep, I've always felt that the franchises being represented in the Fighter's pass will be mid tier within the sales department. I don't feel that games with heavily casual audiences will be chosen for the simple fact that a casual audience is what mostly comprises Smash's demographics as well.

I feel that Banjo was the Cloud of Ultimate's DLC, and what we're left with is the Corrin and Bayonetta. This is not to say that the reveals will be bad, but they will definitely be aimed at specific audiences.
 

StormC

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For me, and the predictions I've made, It's been less about prestige/notoriety and more looking at fanbases which have little overlap with Smash in general. The only exceptions I gave to this were Banjo and, technically, Lloyd (these were predictions I made solely to appease your typical smash fan from 100% hating the Fighter's Pass). Nintendo has made it rather apparent that expanding demographics for the Switch and Smash is one of the things they are aiming to do this year. I suppose this also gets into one of the main reasons I don't predict a Capcom rep, I've always felt that the franchises being represented in the Fighter's pass will be mid tier within the sales department. I don't feel that games with heavily casual audiences will be chosen for the simple fact that a casual audience is what mostly comprises Smash's demographics as well.

I feel that Banjo was the Cloud of Ultimate's DLC, and what we're left with is the Corrin and Bayonetta. This is not to say that the reveals will be bad, but they will definitely be aimed at specific audiences.
Dragon Quest isn't mid-tier though. It's outsold series like Metal Gear and Street Fighter. In fact, before this Pass, Dragon Quest and Resident Evil were, far and away, the two most popular Japanese IPs not yet in Smash. It's a salaryman game as far as Japan is concerned.
 

perfectchaos83

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Dragon Quest isn't mid-tier though. It's outsold series like Metal Gear and Street Fighter. In fact, before this Pass, Dragon Quest and Resident Evil were, far and away, the two most popular Japanese IPs not yet in Smash. It's a salaryman game as far as Japan is concerned.
I'm mainly talking per title. 1-4 million max worldwide.
 
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Gran-Rojo

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Setting aside everything, there is one thing that makes me doubt a Tales character: prestige.

Tales has been a decently successful series, but it never feels like the series has broken out critically. Games like Persona 5 and DQ11 were GOTY contenders and considered two of the best JRPGs ever (and the DQ franchise is obviously a cultural behemoth in Japan). Banjo-Kazooie was a highly anticipated game from Rareware at their peak and is seen as a cornerstone of the N64's library and 3D platforming genre in general. And games like Metal Gear Solid and Final Fantasy VII speak for themselves.

Has Tales ever had a game like that? A game where people in the industry chat it up and talk about it as one of the greatest games of all time? I think Vesperia comes closest to that, but the buzz isn't like Persona 5 or DQ11. I think the Tales games are generally considered solid, but nothing extraordinary; they haven't had their breakout title yet. It's kind of a B series for Namco.

Obviously Sakurai has never said "if a character doesn't have a 90 on metacritic they're deconfirmed" but it's something I've been thinking about.
Speaking as someone who has never played a Tales game, I think Symphonia reaches a sufficient level of prestige to warrant inclusion in smash. I remember hearing about that game non-stop when it first came out on media outlets like Nintendo Power. I even recognized who Lloyd was without even playing the game because of the exposure whenever I would see him in a crossover like in soulcalibur on the Wii.

....... I still think Tekken is more likely for Namco though
 
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Diddy Kong

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Anyone else expecting DLC for the upcoming Zelda BotW sequel later down the road? I mean, it’s a game that’s gonna be huge just by being a sequel to BotW. And a Zelda newcomers has been long overdue already. I think it’s a good possibility if there’s again a strong supporting role of say, the BotW Champions, or young Impa (remember the anti aging rune Purah was working on?).
 

IsmaR

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We're playing a video game, not a spreadsheet on sales. The comparisons of "this number during 4's DLC should equate to this number in the Fighter Pass" make no tangible difference on who gets in.

I'm not saying factors like representation/popularity won't impact things, but it's not necessarily going to be "only A-listers," nor does how big/small a particular series is mean it won't be chosen. Thus far it seems equally important to consider fan demand/Smash specific wants (ballot or otherwise), which is obviously the only reason Banjo-Kazooie would even be recognized, and also how big of an legacy/mark on gaming (not just Nintendo) a series made, even if it overlaps with others of similar genre (love or hate it, it's not stopped us from getting more RPG swordsmen).

I believe we're in store for more surprises and that based on the build up, the Fighter Pass will end on a strong note than on a whimper. I'm already happy with what we got, so I'm just along for the ride either way.
 

GoodGrief741

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How many are new though? Mega Man 11, the SF Collection, Mega Man X Collections 1 & 2 (which should've been on 1 cart but they were cheap with it) and a port of Ace Attorney Trilogy? Most of Capcom's offerings on Switch are ports, after Nintendo upped the amount of ram on the system because Capcom said they needed it for the RE Engine. Then they put out RE7 Cloud Edition in Japan only. Whoop de bloody doo.

Capcom has enough reps as is.
Not sure why you're counting MM11 as a port, it came out on Switch release date.
The same can be said for Chorus Kids and they never happened. Doom Slayer and Ryu have only had prominence on fake leaks.
Not really a good example, considering the leak with the Chorus Kids was real.
 

StormC

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Anyone else expecting DLC for the upcoming Zelda BotW sequel later down the road? I mean, it’s a game that’s gonna be huge just by being a sequel to BotW. And a Zelda newcomers has been long overdue already. I think it’s a good possibility if there’s again a strong supporting role of say, the BotW Champions, or young Impa (remember the anti aging rune Purah was working on?).
Nope. I don't think we're getting more than one Pass and BOTW2 is way too far off to be in the conversation for it.

That's a boring answer but there you go.
 

osby

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Anyone else expecting DLC for the upcoming Zelda BotW sequel later down the road? I mean, it’s a game that’s gonna be huge just by being a sequel to BotW. And a Zelda newcomers has been long overdue already. I think it’s a good possibility if there’s again a strong supporting role of say, the BotW Champions, or young Impa (remember the anti aging rune Purah was working on?).
Yeah, I expect short hair DLC costume for the Zelda we have in Smash, along with skeleton costume for Ganondorf.
 

perfectchaos83

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Not really a good example, considering the leak with the Chorus Kids was real.
Not really looking for an argument on Gematsu, but I view it no differently than what happened with loz this cycle. I'm positive that the person had E3 info and nothing more.
 

KingBroly

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Not sure why you're counting MM11 as a port, it came out on Switch release date.

Not really a good example, considering the leak with the Chorus Kids was real.
You misread what I said. All of the examples I gave released on Switch day and date. It just so happens that everything besides MM11 were a bunch of older games. That is why I'm wary of Capcom in regards to Nintendo, and them getting anything out of Capcom. They aren't good neighbors.


I'm beginning to think Doomslayer will be a DLC character in Smash, honestly. That Pete Hines interview...he struck of a chord there that I can't say he knows something isn't coming to Smash.
 

Nquoid

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You misread what I said. All of the examples I gave released on Switch day and date. It just so happens that everything besides MM11 were a bunch of older games. That is why I'm wary of Capcom in regards to Nintendo, and them getting anything out of Capcom. They aren't good neighbors.


I'm beginning to think Doomslayer will be a DLC character in Smash, honestly. That Pete Hines interview...he struck of a chord there that I can't say he knows something isn't coming to Smash.
I mean since the Switch launched the only brand new games that Capcom have put out are:

Marvel vs. Capcom Infinite
Monster Hunter World
Mega Man 11
Resident Evil 2 Remake
Devil May Cry 5

Everything else is tweaks to previous releases. I'm sure Switch will get Resident Evil 2 and a Monster Hunter game in the near future. It's sad we didn't get then day and date. But Capcom have always been huge supporters of Nintendo consoles (even if the Capcom Five might be one of the biggest cases of a company reneging on promises). I just think they've kind of shifted over into managing their catalogue than focusing on new games.
 

random rendum

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Reminder that this DLC isn't about "gaming icons" or whatever.

We just got ****ing Banjo, even though I'm a fan of his inclusion, the only speculated character more irrelevant than him is Geno. Banjo isn't a gaming icon... At all. He got in because people wanted him to, and because Sakurai had ideas for a moveset. He's almost a Nintendo character to be honest. The next 2 DLC could be practically anyone, and I doubt it'd be some of the "predictable" choices people here are saying.
 
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Ornl

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Capcom/Bamco
Capcom
/Bamco are too obvious because of the theory of Costumes. I don't think Nintendo will offer easy-to-guess characters with the simple observation of missing Costumes.

I don't understand why Bamco, who develops Ultimate, would add one of its characters in DLC at the last moment, and not in the basic game. And Lloyd can't match Hero, and Tekken is already in Ultimate (Namco roulette).

Phoenix Wright / Resident Evil rep would compete for Capcom's choice. But why would one of them be accepted while Monster Hunter got stuck in Assist Trophee? Why would Phoenix Wright be in Smash and not Monster Hunter, Resident Evil, or his other competitor Professor Layton? How could Resident Evil succeed with its gmaeplay and music handicaps?
Phoenix Wright currently is re-rated in the RTC topic. He have for the moment ≈42% with 38 votes. Leon/Jill are the next rating.
 

Nquoid

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Reminder that this DLC isn't about "gaming icons" or whatever.

We just got ****ing Banjo, even though I'm a fan of his inclusion, the only speculated character more irrelevant than him is Geno. Banjo isn't a gaming icon... At all. He got in because people wanted him to, and because Sakurai had ideas for a moveset. He's almost a Nintendo character to be honest. The next 2 DLC could be practically anyone, and I doubt it'd be some of the "predictable" choices people here are saying.
I'd definitely call Banjo iconic. He's not been a persistent icon for sure. But I'd wager that if you ask people to list their favourite N64 games he'd be up there.

Banjo isn't a staple of video gaming in 2018 for sure. But every single third party series that has been added to the franchise so far is iconic in some way. Whether that's by sales, prestige or nostalgia.

I was just looking through a list of the best games of all time and every third party franchise so far has a game in that top 250 (apart from DQ which is probably more on the site pulling mostly from Western sources):

#7 Final Fantasy VII
#9 Metal Gear Solid
#18 Street Fighter 2
#36 Symphony of the Night
#51 Pac-Man
#69 Sonic the Hedgehog
#85 Mega Man 2
#105 Persona 4
#121 Banjo-Kazooie
#198 Bayonetta
#254 Dragon Quest

Capcom/Bamco
Capcom
/Bamco are too obvious because of the theory of Costumes. I don't think Nintendo will offer easy-to-guess characters with the simple observation of missing Costumes.

I don't understand why Bamco, who develops Ultimate, would add one of its characters in DLC at the last moment, and not in the basic game. And Lloyd can't match Hero, and Tekken is already in Ultimate (Namco roulette).

Phoenix Wright / Resident Evil rep would compete for Capcom's choice. But why would one of them be accepted while Monster Hunter got stuck in Assist Trophee? Why would Phoenix Wright be in Smash and not Monster Hunter, Resident Evil, or his other competitor Professor Layton? How could Resident Evil succeed with its gmaeplay and music handicaps?
Phoenix Wright currently is re-rated in the RTC topic. He have for the moment ≈42% with 38 votes. Leon/Jill are the next rating.
But Banjo and Dragon Quest have been the easiest to guess characters for months. Sure there's been debate which Square or Microsoft character would be the choice. But that doesn't change that the entire community was circling those two "obvious" companies ever since the game launched. Nintendo are doing 2 things with this pass. Big, critically acclaimed franchises that haven't been in Smash before, mixed with big nostalgic fan choice characters (and more often than not, both of those at once)

Because they would probably get a bigger share of the profits by having the DLC and Nintendo would allow that as a thank you for the hard work that they've done on the series. Konami and Namco are the only companies where all of their characters in Smash games have been part of the base roster. Also Heihachi being a Sprite barely counts. There's no spirits or music in the game. Tekken is a still a very viable option.

As for Capcom. 4 characters might be pushing it, but they're the only other company aside from Nintendo that can pull it off. And as a hypocritical as it is, I don't think Resident Evil's violence is as big a barrier as other franchises.

But we'll see, we could be wrong. There's not a lot of third party franchises that feel like they can support a character in Smash left. Capcom, Namco, Toei, Activision, Bethesda, Ubisoft. If it's not one of those 6 I'll be shocked.
 
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UberPyro64

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Resident Evil doesn't have handicaps in any department. They can still use music from the games just fine. Here, have three examples of music they can use:


And that's not even counting possible remixes they can do.
 
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StormC

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Capcom/Bamco
Capcom
/Bamco are too obvious because of the theory of Costumes. I don't think Nintendo will offer easy-to-guess characters with the simple observation of missing Costumes.
You mean the same company that made it obvious who the last two fighters were on the boxart?

How could Resident Evil succeed with its gmaeplay and music handicaps?
What music handicaps? The series has over 20 years of games, there are plenty of songs to choose from.

Gameplay really isn't a problem anymore if Joker can use his pistol. You can faithfully depict an RE character with explosives, a pistol, and a knife easily.
 

SKX31

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I feel like if we get a 2nd fighters pass then Rayman would have a good shot if Ubisoft were to get a rep since I don't think spirits would matter then. Also if Banjo is anything to go by, they're gonna go with the choice that fans want the most rather than just look at what franchise from Ubisoft sells the most
I feel honestly a bit wonky about which of the two main choices - Rayman and Ezio (AC 2's hero, and the iconic Assassin) - Ubi go with. And that's assuming Ubi gets into the door (which is not guaranteed since Brawlhalla's their fighter now, with Rayman in it).

Rayman's already has a spirit, Ezio already has his voice actor in the game. Ubisoft's pushed for Rayman before in Smash, they've also wanted Ezio's VA back. Both have moves and general styles that can be very easily transferred to Smash, as well as easily includeable stages and music to boot.

Define short end of the stick? There's around 2 dozen Capcom published titles on the Switch. If it's about the small cartridge sizes for RE, plenty of other companies have done that. Nintendo and Capcom's relationship is as strong as ever to the point of Nintendo spending 2 full minutes during their E3 presentation to advertise two ports of lesser RE games.
You mean the best bad game?

 

thisjustin2001

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Has that Undertale/Waluigi leak been backed up by anyone credible or debunked yet?

EDIT: I find it interesting this leak came out around the same time that one other leaker said one of the Fighter Pass characters was a female character with a weapon, and the fifth Fighter Pass character has already appeared in the game. Could we be in for Waluigi and Undyne as the final DLC fighters?
 
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OnyanRings

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Has that Undertale/Waluigi leak been backed up by anyone credible or debunked yet?

EDIT: I find it interesting this leak came out around the same time that one other leaker said one of the Fighter Pass characters was a female character with a weapon, and the fifth Fighter Pass character has already appeared in the game. Could we be in for Waluigi and Undyne as the final DLC fighters?
That'd be pretty wild but it's probably nothing, Waluigi is always a red flag for leaks like these.
 

andree123

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There was a problem fetching the tweet
Mr. H saw the model but didn't see the face and the model has no colors at all (possibly came from a 3d software), now we need the design of the playable female character to be described (EX: does she wear a ponytail, what kind of clothes is she wearing, and etc.).
 
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Kronch

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Are there any arguments against Mii Costume Theory, by the way? I haven't seen any convincing reasons not to think the last two characters will be from Capcom and Namco specifically. If it's true, then choices like Crash, Doomguy, and Ryu Hayubusa have little to no chance, while others like Jill, Amaterasu, and Pheonix Wright (Capcom) or Lloyd Irving, Jin/Heihachi, and Klonoa (Namco) become extremely possible.
 

Flyboy

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Are there any arguments against Mii Costume Theory, by the way? I haven't seen any convincing reasons not to think the last two characters will be from Capcom and Namco specifically. If it's true, then choices like Crash, Doomguy, and Ryu Hayubusa have little to no chance, while others like Jill, Amaterasu, and Pheonix Wright (Capcom) or Lloyd Irving, Jin/Heihachi, and Klonoa (Namco) become extremely possible.
A big one is that the Virtual Fighter and Tekken costumes came with a fighting game character (Ryu) last time. We still don't have the Virtua Fighter costumes back despite Sega having a character in. We could be getting another genre character or they could just be releasing the costumes at a later time unrelated to anything.

Personally I'm pretty on board with the theory. A Tales character and Phoenix Wright make sense to me.
 

osby

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Are there any arguments against Mii Costume Theory, by the way? I haven't seen any convincing reasons not to think the last two characters will be from Capcom and Namco specifically.
No, but arguments in favor of it are also very weak and only rely on a single Mii costume pack as evidence rather than an actual pattern.
 
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Kronch

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No, but arguments in favor of it are also very weak and only rely on a single Mii costume pack as evidence rather than an actual pattern.
I think we'll have to see what they do for The Hero before deciding if MCT has merit, but a Capcom and Namco rep also just make the most sense to me anyways (for reasons I won't bother to repeat since you've all probably heard them so much already).
 

Curious Villager

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No, but arguments in favor of it are also very weak and only rely on a single Mii costume pack as evidence rather than an actual pattern.
Pretty much this, there is no way of telling one way or the other, especially as we still only have one pack to go off of so far.
Even stuff like the color/companion theories have at least more than one instance to go off of.

We'll probably have to wait and see until at least one or two more Mii costume packs come along and see if they have an overall company theme going on or not.
 
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Untouch

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Are there any arguments against Mii Costume Theory, by the way? I haven't seen any convincing reasons not to think the last two characters will be from Capcom and Namco specifically. If it's true, then choices like Crash, Doomguy, and Ryu Hayubusa have little to no chance, while others like Jill, Amaterasu, and Pheonix Wright (Capcom) or Lloyd Irving, Jin/Heihachi, and Klonoa (Namco) become extremely possible.
1. Capcom never got a fighter pack, only 1/3rd of the costumes they got in the end were released with Ryu, which had a fighting game pack, not a Capcom pack.
2. Namco got a bunch of costumes in the game, but never received a DLC character.
3. Jacky and Akira never returned with Joker. In fact, this mirrors Smash 4 as Tails and Knuckles were released with Bayonetta.
4. Most of the costumes added in DLC weren't added with characters.

Really it's mirroring what happened with Smash 4 right now. This doesn't suggest a Capcom character or a Namco character. The only thing this may be pointing towards is a fighting game character.
 

CyberHyperPhoenix

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Mr. H saw the model but didn't see the face and the model has no colors at all (possibly came from a 3d software), now we need the design of the playable female character to be described (EX: does she wear a ponytail, what kind of clothes is she wearing, and etc.).

Can someone remind me why we're still giving this Nico Nico guy any of our attention? Did he say or do something to gain any credibility since he posted this?


There was a problem fetching the tweet
 
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Rie Sonomura

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Taken from the Elma thread:
We have a new tweet. I also asked a friend of mine who speaks a bit of Japanese about it, and she said that the "flying weapon" in this case refers to some kind of firearm, with the "flying" part being a reference to the shots. I want to be cautious, but this does sound somewhat promising. . .
We may not know the character’s hair color but with this it seems Nakoruru/Mai Shiranui can be ruled out.

Jill/Lara/KOS-MOS/Elma back in the running?
 
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Flyboy

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C



Can someone remind me why we're still giving this Nico Nico guy any of our attention? Did he say or do something to gain any credibility since he posted this?
1. It's fun.
2. The context of the tweet is that the censored name is the joke and that he doesn't know the character's name. He does know (supposedly) that his source saw an untextured model briefly that uses projectiles and appeared to be female and fighting game-esque. That's all he's claimed.
 
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Ornl

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(About Capcom then Resident Evil)
You mean the same company that made it obvious who the last two fighters were on the boxart?
What music handicaps? The series has over 20 years of games, there are plenty of songs to choose from.
Gameplay really isn't a problem anymore if Joker can use his pistol. You can faithfully depict an RE character with explosives, a pistol, and a knife easily.
Hi. Could you clarify the first sentence of your answer? I don't understand what it is.
The controversy of the gameplay exists, whatever I think. Joker also has a knife and a special shot to "throw".
The controversy of music is a little discussed: there is no iconic theme; players may be sensitive to tension music and be psychologically disadvantaged; the sad piano isn't suitable.
 

Rie Sonomura

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1. Capcom never got a fighter pack, only 1/3rd of the costumes they got in the end were released with Ryu, which had a fighting game pack, not a Capcom pack.
2. Namco got a bunch of costumes in the game, but never received a DLC character.
3. Jacky and Akira never returned with Joker. In fact, this mirrors Smash 4 as Tails and Knuckles were released with Bayonetta.
4. Most of the costumes added in DLC weren't added with characters.

Really it's mirroring what happened with Smash 4 right now. This doesn't suggest a Capcom character or a Namco character. The only thing this may be pointing towards is a fighting game character.
Point on #3 - Akira was promoted to Assist Trophy in Ultimate. Also iirc, his and Jacky’s costumes in 4 were also part of the “fighting games in general” pack.

The SOLE exception where a company’s costumes were added with a character from said company was Square-Enix’s Cloud, who had Geno and Chocobo Mii Costumes revealed with him.

Mii Costume theory imo at least has validity for a Namco rep at least. Lloyd? Yuri? Nightmare? Solaire? KOS-MOS? Who knows. But the Capcom thing is merely coincidence imo, after all, Elec Man’s AT has been replaced by Zero, Proto Man is now part of Mega Man’s Final Smash, and there’s no guarantee the Monster Hunter costume will return when we have the Boss/AT Rathalos.

There’s even no guarantee per se that Heihachi and or Lloyd’s Mii costumes will return. I am confident Geno’s will, though.
 
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Point on #3 - Akira was promoted to Assist Trophy in Ultimate. Also iirc, his and Jacky’s costumes in 4 were also part of the “fighting games in general” pack.

Mii Costume theory imo at least has validity for a Namco rep at least. Lloyd? Yuri? Nightmare? Solaire? KOS-MOS? Who knows. But the Capcom thing is merely coincidence imo, after all, Elec Man’s AT has been replaced by Zero, Proto Man is now part of Mega Man’s Final Smash, and there’s no guarantee the Monster Hunter costume will return when we have the Boss/AT Rathalos.
Well, Knuckles is an AT, and his Mii Costume was released with the other Mii DLC stuff. If your point is that we aren't going to get costumes because the person of said costume is in Smash as an AT, that already went out the window.
 

Rie Sonomura

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Well, Knuckles is an AT, and his Mii Costume was released with the other Mii DLC stuff. If your point is that we aren't going to get costumes because the person of said costume is in Smash as an AT, that already went out the window.
Well, for some cases it’s true, but for others it might not be. It seems to be a case by case basis.
 

osby

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(About Capcom then Resident Evil)

Hi. Could you clarify the first sentence of your answer? I don't understand what it is.
The controversy of the gameplay exists, whatever I think. Joker also has a knife and a special shot to "throw".
The controversy of music is a little discussed: there is no iconic theme; players may be sensitive to tension music and be psychologically disadvantaged; the sad piano isn't suitable.
Us having Robin and Duck Hunt didn't prevent Hero and Banjo & Kazooie from getting in. Plus, a thief with a Stand wouldn't be similar to a soldier. I feel like th gameplay excuse is a weak argument.

And I simply don't believe a franchise as big as RE doesn't have a few Smash-appropriate tracks, just check Jill's support thread for a few examples.
 
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