Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Shroob]

But what does Nintendo get out of Touhou being represented in Smash?

What exactly do they get out of Hyabusa unless there's a new DoA game coming to Switch that I'm unaware of?

 

[SpectreJordan]

people in november 2018: "****, the dlc is just gonna be shill picks isn't it"

people in november 2019, seeing both ryu and reimu as equally possible:

View attachment 242815

To be fair, everyone so far besides Banjo has a game coming soon (or already out for Hero). Even then, there’s been whispers of Rare Replay on Switch &/or a Banjo remake.

The choices so far have been shill picks, just good ones lmao

There’s always new Touhou games coming out. & with how close Nintendo/Toei are lately, I could see a new Ninja Gaiden coming to Switch; maybe it’d even be an exclusive.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Replace 75m with Gangplank Galleon. No one will miss that awful stage.

And add in Dixie Kong while we're at it.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

But what does Nintendo get out of Touhou being represented in Smash?

Say it with me everyone

"Relevance has nothing to do with Smash Brother."

Mega Man, Pac-Man, Cloud, Joker, Banjo & Kazoie- they're either not current or have barely anything to do with Nintendo.

 

[3BitSaurus]

But what does Nintendo get out of Touhou being represented in Smash?

I mean... they also didn't get much out of Persona, for example, but there were several other reasons to put Joker in the game.

I guess ultimately the thing that matters the most is whether or not the series in question is good and beloved by players.

Gotta say, I like how speculation picked up a bit in the last few days. Usually that means we're getting closer to some news. Of the three, Hayabusa seems to have a very slight edge over the other two rumored characters, but we could still be surprised in the end.

 

[Evil Trapezium]

So can I get an update on what rumors are still alive and what ones got debunked?

Ryu Hayabusa is alive and well
Crash leak is not dead yet

Papagenos has made a statement about it

Spoiler: Long post

I'm just gonna respond to everyone in one post here. First off I've seen a few people suggesting/saying this so to be clear:


The Crash leak/Mii costume person is NOT the person who told me about Banjo a year ago.


The Banjo person with the microsoft source has never leaked anything other than banjo to me. Though we do talk here and there and speculate (we talked before terrys reveal and were speculating on who DLC4 might be for instance). So yeah this Mii Costume List/Crash stuff is coming from a completely different place than the Banjo stuff, I'd have said it was the Banjo leaker if that were the case as it would add credibility for sure but it is not that person.

Right now I'm thinking Ryu Hayabusa is DLC5, im not ready to go 100% all in on any character for DLC5 though. Hyabusa is just who my CURRENT GUESS is, based on what I'm hearing.

That isn't to say the "Crash/Mii costume list" thing isnt legitimate info though, there just might be something odd going on...

First off The Mii Costume list seems legitimate to me and its basically impossible to guess goemon/rocket grunts, so that part is a solid leak imo. The mallow/smithy/chocobo stuff attached to it DO make me think geno is likely but I have nothing more to say on that other than speculating. The brew leak also has a "soft" geno leak somewhat attached to it, so geno seems to be slightly a part of both of these leaks, which is good news imo.

I've talked to Sabi about this and even with their NoA source saying "no tracer no crash", as far as im aware sabi is still totally on board with the "mii costume list" part of the leak being a legit real leak. Also sabi has suggested the "no crash" quote from their NoA source MIGHT just mean "no crash as the NEXT fighter" as in Crash isnt DLC5 not that Crash isnt happening at all. Saying "no" to a character kind of implies you would have to know every character we are getting and that seems impossible to know at this point.

Now as for the Crash part of the leak specifically, I can only go so far with that piece. I'll explain what i mean:

Leaks are a game of telephone. What I was told by this person was that "fighter 5 is crash" and that it was coming from the same IGN source of theirs that told them the Mii Costume list in July. HOWEVER I have no contact with the IGN source so if the IGN source has MULTIPLE sources of their own its possible "Crash" and the "Mii costume list" are actually coming from different places. I have no way of knowing if there is a split in the chain of communication after the IGN source, so while it seems from our perspective that the "crash" and "mii costume list" are coming from the same source (the IGN source) I do not know for sure if both those pieces of information actually ORIGINATE from the same source. again its a game of telephone and I can only see so far down the line.

heres a visual for what I mean:

View attachment 242837

MY SPECULATION:

Right now I have a bit of a theory for what I think MIGHT be happening. This is something that seems to KEEP happening with leakers; They get the order wrong.

Vergeben heard "Erdrick" and thought he'd be the first DLC revealed... instead we got joker.
I heard Banjo and the Grinch Leak had me thinking he would be in the base game. Instead he WAS in, but as DLC.
Iamshifty heard Ryu Hayabusa and said he was the NEXT fighter (DLC4). instead we got Terry BUT potentially Ryu Hayabusa is DLC5.

What MIGHT be happening with this crash thing is ONCE AGAIN someone is hearing a solid character leak and ASSUMING the order.

So IF crash is in fact ORIGINATING from the same source as the Mii Costume List info (and again I explained its possible they aren't I have no way of knowing where the IGN Source is hearing this stuff from) then I think Crash is probably happening but LATER down the line, while Hayabusa is likely DLC5. Thats just my current speculation here on all of this though, I do not know for sure who DLC5 is or any characters getting into Smash right now. Even though the "leak" I was told was specifically "fighter 5 is crash" I think that is potentially just an assumption of the order. It seems leakers KEEP ASSUMING the order when the only real info they actually have is a characters name. I'm basically guilty of doing this myself with the Grinch Leak and the Banjo info. Smash characters come from tons of different companies and very few people have the whole picture but hearing only one name causes them to assume that name must be happening imminently when that is not always the case.

So if you don't want read all of that, here is the low down

- Papagenos explained that the NoA source saying "No Crash and No Tracer" only means they're not DLC 5 as he talked to Sabi about it.
- He believes the Mii costume list is legitimate as Goemon and Team Rocket, with no Microsoft costumes are hard guesses. Sabi is also on board with it.
- The "Mii costume" source told him specifically that Crash Bandicoot is fighter 5 but he does not believe it as he thinks Ryu Hayabusa is more likely.
- He speculates that Crash, like Ryu Hayabusa and "Erdrick" is early information in which Crash Bandicoot may arrive later down the DLC line.

I hope that's explained everything for you. :^)

 

[Deleted member]

What exactly do they get out of Hyabusa unless there's a new DoA game coming to Switch that I'm unaware of?

Man, this kind of stuff reminds me of why PSABR failed its third-party roster; they were used to promote then-upcoming games.

Say it with me everyone

"Relevance has nothing to do with Smash Brother."

Mega Man, Pac-Man, Cloud, Joker, Banjo & Kazoie- they're either not current or have barely anything to do with Nintendo.

Sometimes I find myself questioning the mentality of the Smash fandom.

 

[AntagonisticGalaxyCetacea]

Say it with me everyone

"Relevance has nothing to do with Smash Brother."

Mega Man, Pac-Man, Cloud, Joker, Banjo & Kazoie- they're either not current or have barely anything to do with Nintendo.

Thank you for completely missing my point

Nintendo clearly wants to add characters that draw attention to their game, since they want people to buy a Switch and Smash Bros, but what exactly does adding something like Touhou benefit them, when its mostly just popular in Japan? If they're just adding characters that are crazy popular, why aren't they adding things like Fortnite or even Minecraft?

My point is that we haven't had a choice that is completely one sided; Persona, Dragon Quest, and King of Fighters/Fatal Fury are popular in Japan but they do have a presence in the West, same with Banjo and Kazooie. It doesnt make sense from a business perspective to add Touhou into the game especially in a Fighters Pass

 

[Shroob]

Again.

I absolutely do not think FP5 is Reimu.

But as a standalone post-pass? All bets are off.

Tossing a series aside because it's "too niche" is a horrid trapping that this DLC cycle has had.

"Dragon Quest is niche! Only Japan likes it!"

"Steve makes more sense! Banjo is for boomers!"

"What's SNK?"

 

[Deleted member]

My point is that we haven't had a choice that is completely one sided; Persona, Dragon Quest, and King of Fighters/Fatal Fury are popular in Japan but they do have a presence in the West, same with Banjo and Kazooie. It doesnt make sense from a business perspective to add Touhou into the game especially in a Fighters Pass

Besides, if Sakurai wants to do good representation of gaming, he'll want to let indie companies get a shot too. We already have a couple of indie stuff in the base game, why not DLC?

Again.

I absolutely do not think FP5 is Reimu.

But as a standalone post-pass? All bets are off.

Tossing a series aside because it's "too niche" is a horrid trapping that this DLC cycle has had.

"Dragon Quest is niche! Only Japan likes it!"

"Steve makes more sense! Banjo is for boomers!"

"What's SNK?"

That's why I'm taking a liking for this pass (though if there are no females Imma boycott this ****. I'm with Reimu for this one). I like how Sakurai is the one who wants to introduce new people to new franchises so that he can further his point of it being "a celebration of gaming".

 

[OrpheusTelos]

But what does Nintendo get out of Touhou being represented in Smash?

The same logic could be applied to literally any character in the Fighters Pass besides Hero. What does Nintendo get out of adding Joker, Banjo, or Terry despite none of them having major upcoming Switch releases (and no, Scramble and Q2 don't count for Joker because there's no way Nintendo suggested a primarily Sony-exclusive character to push some spin-offs)? Royal's still a PS4 exclusive, Banjo's owned by a competing company, and I don't think King of Fighters XV is even coming to Switch. Hell, Ninja Gaiden is basically dead right now but that's not stopping anyone from thinking Hayabusa's likely. Not every choice regarding the roster has to be some kind of big tie-in to something, because that's how you get people loosing their **** over Tracer because of an Overwatch Switch case.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Ryu Hayabusa is alive and well
Crash leak is not dead yet

Papagenos has made a statement about it


So if you don't want read all of that, here is the low down

- Papagenos explained that the NoA source saying "No Crash and No Tracer" only means they're not DLC 5 as he talked to Sabi about it.
- He believes the Mii costume list is legitimate as Goemon and Team Rocket, with no Microsoft costumes are hard guesses. Sabi is also on board with it.
- The "Mii costume" source told him specifically that Crash Bandicoot is fighter 5 but he does not believe it as he thinks Ryu Hayabusa is more likely.
- He speculates that Crash, like Ryu Hayabusa and "Erdrick" is early information in which Crash Bandicoot may arrive later down the DLC line.

I hope that's explained everything for you. :^)

So the one with Claire and Maxwell is dead?

 

[Deleted member]

The same logic could be applied to literally any character in the Fighters Pass besides Hero. What does Nintendo get out of adding Joker, Banjo, or Terry despite none of them having major upcoming Switch releases (and no, Scramble and Q2 don't count for Joker because there's no way Nintendo suggested a primarily Sony-exclusive character to push some spin-offs)? Royal's still a PS4 exclusive, Banjo's owned by a competing company, and I don't think King of Fighters XV is even coming to Switch. Hell, Ninja Gaiden is basically dead right now but that's not stopping anyone from thinking Hayabusa's likely. Not every choice regarding the roster has to be some kind of big tie-in to something, because that's how you get people loosing their **** over Tracer because of an Overwatch Switch case.

Joker's a Sakurai pick.

Hero has legacy.

Banjo-Kazooie has the Western guardian angel at their back

Terry has the arcade/FGC backing up.

 

[SpectreJordan]

stage

Master Chief:
Stage: Halo Ring
Cameos: Sgt. Johnson, UNSC Marines, Elites, Grunts, 343 Guilty Spark

Jill/Chris/Leon/Claire:
Stage: Raccoon City
Cameos: Zombies, Lickers, Zombie Dogs, Sherry Birkin, Mr. X, Nemesis (Stage Boss)

Sora:
Stage: Hollow Bastion
Cameos: Riku, Kairi, Axel, Roxas, Xion

Doom Slayer:
Stage - Mars
Cameos: Imps, Baron of Hell, Mancubus, Cacodemon, Pinky Demon

Frisk:
Stage - Snowdin
Cameos: Papyrus, Sans, Undyne, Alphys, Flowey

 

[SNEKeater]

They're usually vocal as sin. I know there were even people angry over Banjo-Kazooie of all characters, too. And I can tell you even the likes of Geno and Sora will have their detractors if they got in.

It just gets a bit tiring seeing people complain about a specific character if they're new and I can imagine Reimu getting in will blow the lid off the Western side of things.

Though if she is in, I'll have to do some Social Media muting for a bit until she's near release.

I understand you. Maybe this didn't happened that much with Joker because he was absolutely a surprise and no one saw it coming, so most of people was talking about the surprise and a possible port for Persona 5 for Switch. Of course there was people complaining, but it wasn't that much, at least from my experience.

If Reimu gets in... I can see a reception like the one Terry had. 60% cool reactions and 40% complainings. But hey, don't worry. Even haters tend to accept the character. The complains about Terry are minimal since a few weeks, because complains always come from people who doesn't know very well the character. Well, that and because the fighter announced isn't the one they wanted.

I understand that seeing your favourite character getting a decent quantity of complains isn't precisely pleasing. I had luck with Joker and I avoided the complains due to the reasons I mentioned earlier, but if the next character is one of my most wanteds I would be prepared for people being annoying.

I have no attachment to Reimu and if I'm honest I would prefer at least 10 -15? characters before her, but I have absolutely nothing against her, in fact I would be completely okay with her! Maybe she isn't one of the most demanded characters from the Smash fanbase, but to me is very cool and interesting seeing new genres or popular characters outside the Smash bubble being in the game, like Terry. To me that makes Ultimate more compelling and attractive.

 

[---]

- He believes the Mii costume list is legitimate as Goemon and Team Rocket, with no Microsoft costumes are hard guesses. Sabi is also on board with it.

Am playing catch up on all these rumors, is there a link to the list of the costumes they're claiming/have claimed?

 

[AntagonisticGalaxyCetacea]

What does Nintendo get out of adding Joker, Banjo, or Terry despite none of them having major upcoming Switch releases

Joker - Character from a popular JRPG franchise, though he was mostly picked because of how popular Persona 5 was received in Japan and the West
Banjo - Character that's been requested for a while from Smash fans, also a popular franchise back in the day
Hero - Character(s) from basically grandpa JRPG, huge following in Japan but also had some releases in the West
Terry - Character from a franchise that inspired Smash Bros, aside from just being a popular fighting game franchise to begin with

Again, my point wasn't that every DLC character needs to have a tie-in. You should've read my post before jumping in and saying the saying the same thing, continuing to miss the point.

 

[Evil Trapezium]

So the one with Claire and Maxwell is dead?

In the water with it's face down, floating across the river and down the waterfall where it breaks in two, never to be heard from again.

Am playing catch up on all these rumors, is there a link to the list of the costumes they're claiming/have claimed?

Unfortunately it's a private message between Papagenos and this insider so this is all I can give.

Spoiler: List of mii costumes

Fixed that for you.

I agree but can't we just get rid of 75m anyway? It's such an unplayable mess

As much as I dislike 75m's layout, I do like how it fills a purpose of representing the original Donkey Kong arcade game and gives us a stage that isn't another jungle. The original Donkey Kong is the one most people recognize, so it'd be kind of weird if they didn't represent it in some way.

I guess you're right about it representing the original Donkey Kong arcade and that it doesn't give us another Jungle stage. Its just such an awful stage to play on though.

And add in Dixie Kong while we're at it.

I guess if it makes you happy. I'm more neutral to her since I prefer Donkey Kong Country 1 over 2.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Little off the cuff, but I missed seeing posters like these for newcomers.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

 

[Hinata]

But what does Nintendo get out of Touhou being represented in Smash?

Honestly, it'd be a self-indulgent pick more than anything. Sakurai's a big Touhou fan from what I hear. The Touhou series is one of the reasons Sakurai got into game development in the first place, just like how SNK is the reason Sakurai decided to make Smash Bros.

But also, Touhou's huge in Japan, as has been discussed. ****in' massive. Everyone and their mother in Japan would buy Reimu if she was DLC. So they got some tidy profits to look forward to if they do it.

 

[Shroob]

Joker - Character from a popular JRPG franchise, though he was mostly picked because of how popular Persona 5 was received in Japan and the West
Banjo - Character that's been requested for a while from Smash fans, also a popular franchise back in the day
Hero - Character(s) from basically grandpa JRPG, huge following in Japan but also had some releases in the West
Terry - Character from a franchise that inspired Smash Bros, aside from just being a popular fighting game franchise to begin with

Again, my point wasn't that every DLC character needs to have a tie-in. You should've read my post before jumping in and saying the saying the same thing, continuing to miss the point.

I mean, can you really say we won't get Minecraft or Fortnite characters?

If the datamine for WoL is to be believed, we got what, 10 more character slots?

Making assumptions on a potential 10 more characters and why they can/can't be added is way too early.

 

[perfectchaos83]

Honestly, it'd be a self-indulgent pick more than anything. Sakurai's a big Touhou fan from what I hear. The Touhou series is one of the reasons Sakurai got into game development in the first place, just like how SNK is the reason Sakurai decided to make Smash Bros.

There's no proven link between Sakurai and Touhou. It is continuously stated that shoot em up's are one of his favorite generas and that a shoot em up developed by HAL is what got him into game development.

 

[Deleted member]

I have no attachment to Reimu and if I'm honest I would prefer at least 10 -15? characters before her, but I have absolutely nothing against her, in fact I would be completely okay with her! Maybe she isn't one of the most demanded characters from the Smash fanbase, but to me is very cool and interesting seeing new genres or popular characters outside the Smash bubble being in the game, like Terry. To me that makes Ultimate more compelling and attractive

Same. I've only heard of Touhou from a fanfic author who wedged the series in his MHA/DC Crossover Fanfic, but I've heard nothing but good things from it. Would definitely want to see 'em in.

Honestly, it'd be a self-indulgent pick more than anything. Sakurai's a big Touhou fan from what I hear. The Touhou series is one of the reasons Sakurai got into game development in the first place, just like how SNK is the reason Sakurai decided to make Smash Bros

That's all I need to hear. This ****ing seals the deal, and I couldn't be more happier. Only know that shoot em ups are his type, and it's probably one of the games he played.

 

[Hinata]

There's no proven link between Sakurai and Touhou. It is continuously stated that shoot em up's are one of his favorite generas and that a shoot em up developed by HAL is what got him into game development.

Oh, right, it was the genre, not Touhou itself. That's my bad for misremembering.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

Fixed that for you.

You can take Hannenbow when you pry it from my cold dead hands.

 

[ZoroCarlos]

Little off the cuff, but I missed seeing posters like these for newcomers.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

You know the worst part is we got one for Inkling so here I was thinking that trend would continue but nah...

Spoiler: Inkling

 

[Deleted member]

You know the worst part is we got one for Inkling so here I was thinking that trend would continue but nah...

Spoiler: Inkling

View attachment 242857

Aww.. that was so cool back in the day.

 

[GKMLTTSB]

What Touhou brings to Smash and Nintendo includes...

well...

1) Potentially, the not-insignificant Touhou fanbase. Not just fans of the main games, but fans of the official spin-offs or secondary/tertiary works (fangames, fanart, manga doujinshi, etc.) who may not be super-hot on shmups, but still like the characters and world.

2) Attention to the Touhou franchise. Official releases for some of the fan-games do exist on Switch and AoCF is coming. If Smash gets people to look at these games, it has a reasonable chance to improve their reception and incentivizes people to move more Touhou games over.

3) Greater demographic and genre coverage which along with the above will result in more interesting discussions being had about the game than you'd get with some of the more mainstream picks. Not unique to Touhou, but a quality it does contribute all the same.

 

[TheYungLink]

Little off the cuff, but I missed seeing posters like these for newcomers.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

You know the worst part is we got one for Inkling so here I was thinking that trend would continue but nah...

Spoiler: Inkling

View attachment 242857

Just imagine if this trend continued...what would The Hero's poster look like, drawn by mother****ing Akira Toriyama?

Imagine seeing Mario, Wii Fit Trainer, Duck Hunt, Link, Pit, and in particular all the monstrous characters like Bowser, K. Rool, Ridley, etc. drawn in his signature style. It's a shame the trend didn't continue this time solely for that, honestly.

 

[Blade of Evil's Bane]

I know it doesn't tie to any of the current rumors but i can't shake the feeling that a Gen 8 Pokemon is likely to be the next reveal...

I have absolutely no evidence or argument* to support this, just a good old irrational hunch.

*I don't want to count the 'shill pick' argument as a real one but i mean, it would probably add to the Pokemon Sword & Shield hype.

 

[KatKit]

Star Ocean. Granblue Fantasy. Project X Zones 1 and 2. Not a bad resume for cameos, but something is missing... perhaps Smash?

Yadda yadda mostly popular in the East. Yadda yadda mostly popular in the West.

How about a glorious compromise?

Spoiler

As for Touhou, I already said what I had to say about it. I'm down, and if it ever happens in some capacity, I wouldn't be surprised.

 

[Deleted member]

What Touhou brings to Smash and Nintendo includes...

well...

1) Potentially, the not-insignificant Touhou fanbase. Not just fans of the main games, but fans of the official spin-offs or secondary/tertiary works (fangames, fanart, manga doujinshi, etc.) who may not be super-hot on shmups, but still like the characters and world.

2) Attention to the Touhou franchise. Official releases for some of the fan-games do exist on Switch and AoCF is coming. If Smash gets people to look at these games, it has a reasonable chance to improve their reception and incentivizes people to move more Touhou games over.

3) Greater demographic and genre coverage which along with the above will result in more interesting discussions being had about the game than you'd get with some of the more mainstream picks. Not unique to Touhou, but a quality it does contribute all the same.

Those are all great reasons to include this franchise. It's what Sakurai did to Dragon Quest. Literally post-Smash, I've seen a lot of people trying out the game. In fact, during one of my pub matches in Mobile Legends couple days ago, they had Luminary as their icon, which brings a smile to my face.

 

[Ayumi Tachibana]

I think the biggest thing in regard to that Reimu leak is not the list of tracks but him name dropping a specific doujin circle. Fake or real, not a smart move I must say.

 

[Deleted member]

I think the biggest thing in regard to that Reimu leak is not the list of tracks but him name dropping a specific doujin circle. Fake or real, not a smart move I must say.

That's it's biggest drawback. I mean, what if they were making new tracks for a game, and not Smash?

 

[Hinata]

That's it's biggest drawback. I mean, what if they were making new tracks for a game, and not Smash?

Both leaks that mention doujin circles composing new Touhou remixes are 100% confident the remixes are for Smash.

 

[perfectchaos83]

Just posting this just because of how hilarious it is in retrospect, but here's an anon's wishlist for DLC back in November of last year

https://arch.b4k.co/v/thread/438906861/#438944106

It doesn't have Joker, but the fact that it's got everyone else plus the RH duo is funny to me.

 

[Deleted member]

Both leaks that mention doujin circles composing new Touhou remixes are 100% confident the remixes are for Smash.

Interesting. I see.

 

[ZoroCarlos]

Just imagine if this trend continued...what would The Hero's poster look like, drawn by mother****ing Akira Toriyama?

Imagine seeing Mario, Wii Fit Trainer, Duck Hunt, Link, Pit, and in particular all the monstrous characters like Bowser, K. Rool, Ridley, etc. drawn in his signature style. It's a shame the trend didn't continue this time solely for that, honestly.

Bruh, now I'm sad because we could have gotten Smash characters in the Banjo-Kazooie render style.

 

[N3ON]

Bruh, now I'm sad because we could have gotten Smash characters in the Banjo-Kazooie render style.

Just image search "googly eyes" and paste them over every character.

Banjo-Kazooie style.

 

[PSIGuy]

I love this casual dismission of Hero as if Dragon Quest isn't a best seller and absolutely needed to have Banjo to excite anyone

More like people have been admitting for ages that DQ was aimed at Japanese fans and Banjo at western fans for ages. DQ has never been a bestseller in the west. Persona 5 at least had universal acclaim making it a good reveal to start on. The fact every other reveal hasn’t been standalone is admission from Nintendo themselves that not all fans may care about the next immediate character to come out.