Let's break down my characters to watch out for across the entire plane of DLC. Not just Pack 5 contenders, but I'll put those in
this color. Let's assume Spirits, Assist Trophies, Bosses, and Pokéball Pokémon are available for DLC. Mii Costumes are a special case. Non-comprehensive, I've probably missed a character or two. Lower tier characters are not bad, but I can't see them happening just yet. Only the lowest tier characters are ones who will not make it in, and at that they won't make it in as anything ever.
God Tier: I just.... I can't not see them as in. Nobody is in this tier yet, but if we get anybody who is leaked (either by a perfect-record Smash leaker or a significant video leak), I'll make sure to include them.
Top Tier: The big guys. Characters who you should all be watching out for.
- Waluigi - the obvious one. The amount of clamour people have had for him means he would probably outsell Sans's Mii Costume. That's... that's extremely impressive, and would pretty much break any reason to exclude him based on the crowd-pleasing and commercial aspect alone. If we get any Assist Trophy out of the Snowglobe of Doom and open the door, the Purple Plumber will be the one to do it.
- Doom Guy/Slayer - Basically the same reasons as people believe in him now. The FPS equivalent of Dragon Quest, very popular, the Bethesda talks...
- Ryu Hayabusa - Is one of two major NES icons missing (the other is in high tier), Koei-Tecmo is already involved with Smash Bros.
- Resident Evil - Another genre pioneer, it's the most iconic Capcom franchise to have never received Smash representation. Five viable candidates: Leon is the likeliest, then Jill, then Chris, then Wesker, and Claire is the least likely individual character. Counting the possibility of Survivor being stacked, Wesker is the least likely.
- Crash Bandicoot - Came back to roaring success, is a worldwide icon, Activision has worked with Nintendo before.
- Steve - The blocky boy is the face of the world's largest game. Enough said.
High Tier: Very likely, but I could understand you guys thinking they're just likely or even unlikely.
- Arle Nadja - I've got a lot of explaining to do in another post, but bear in mind that she's the sleeper contender. She's not top tier worthy, though.
- Phoenix Wright - A genre legend who has something new to bring. Could easily double as a Marvel vs. Capcom character in disguise by featuring
- Bill Riser - The other one of the major NES icons who is missing. Another legend of Konami's, Contra is oft forgotten about between it, Goemon, and Frogger for Konami's third franchise. Very diverse moveset potential.
- Agumon - Bamco's second biggest gaming franchise. It's basically legendary compared to most everything else besides Pac-Man.
- Rex & Pyra - Rex skirts the line, but he stands out as Sakurai did seem regretful he couldn't be included in the base game.
- Elma - If Rex doesn't count, then Elma will gladly take his place. I can see Rex, then Elma, but if Elma happens first I dunno about Rex.
- Professor Layton - Has some things in common with Arle. However, he trades her star power in Japan and massive pushes in the west for not having competition included. Still, I don't think he has a shot for Pack 5, and is more of a globally later character.
- Dixie Kong - The Final Missing DK character of significant worth that people have been asking for.
- Echo Fighters in General - Echoes are far simpler to make. They don't need a stage, music, or anything but a Fighter Spirit.
- Dante - Got everything he needed when DMC1 came to Switch.
- Travis Touchdown - Something tells me he's got the potential to make it happen. Suda51's very much hoping.
- Isaac - Waluigi but not as potent.
- Tracer - Iconic character and Iconic mascot of an Iconic game. Might be a little too new, though.
- Master Chief - Seems kinda hard to make him distinct from Doom Slayer to people unfamiliar with him, but aside from that this guy is probably Microsoft's third character.
Mid Tier: Somewhat likely but you probably shouldn't bet on them.
- Dr. Eggman, Alucard, Raiden, another Fatal Fury character: Sakurai seems to have a preference for expanding the crossover, especially when it comes to third parties. However these characters still have several things going for them, so it isn't all gloom and doom.
- Lloyd Irving, Heihachi Mishima: Heavily run the risk of getting Mii'd. Aside from that, it's Banjo & Steve again, one has way more Smash fans and the other wins generally.
- KOS-MOS: The secondary dark horse candidate of the Bamco 2 race, she's got a fair bit of good things going for her but I've just got a hunch she can't compete with Agumon.
- Shantae? Shovel Knight?: The S duo of Indies are similarly challenged. They are very unlikely to be the ones who forge a new path, I don't expect them until their doors have already been opened.
- Sora - If Disney is cooperative, then he's in. If Disney, as I predict, tries to push for Mickey Mouse then things get dicey.
Low Tier: These characters... have a problem that prevent them from being likely. They're still feasible, but I can see some issues propping up.
- Frisk - the Series Symbol for Undertale's Megalovania is the think keeping them in the game and out of Bottom Tier or Sony/Goku Tier. It is odd that they'd release Frisk AFTER, and not before, Sans' Mii Costume and Megalovania.
- Unique Shadow - Shadow is very likely to be an Echo Fighter if he gets promoted.
- Retro First Parties - They're... base game material. Things that wouldn't really sell well enough as DLC due to obscurity. I count Lip here alongside other characters.
- Spyro: Has Scorpion's (below) main issue but not as bad.
Bottom Tier: They're incredibly unlikely. Anything is possible, but these characters are begging for miracles.
- The DLC Mii Costumes. Tails, Knuckles, Goemon, Sans, Zero. Selling the characters again but as Fighters destroys the value of the Mii Costumes, so there is no reason to do even bother making a Mii Costume if you think, for a second, you'd make them a Fighter.
- Scorpion. While Mortal Kombat is beloved, its dreadful reputation in Japan, Smash's home country, is not going to do him any favors.
[Funny title for worse than bottom] Tier: Uh uh, uh uh, no way. I'll believe it when I see it.
- Ratchet & Clank, Kratos, Sly Cooper, PaRappa, Nathan Drake, Joel & Ellie: All of them are owned by Sony, the only company to have the financial stability and spite towards Nintendo to reject a Smash character for no reason. There's also no attempt at crossplay whatsoever. It's just not gonna.
- Son Goku, SpongeBob, Shrek, Batman, Spider-Man: Do I have to say anything here? Honestly I think they're likelier than Sony characters because at least I don't think Nickelodeon or DC would reject a character the way Sony would. Still, it would take Nintendo strong-arming Sakurai into even giving it more than a little thought.
- Any other multimedia character: The above 5 have at least one well known, beloved game (FighterZ, BFBB, SuperSlam, Arkham Asylum/City, Spider Man 2/PS4). The rest of them are examples of it being a slop stick. This is the bottom of the barrel kind of character.