Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Wigglerman]

Ok, Maggie.

Carl or nothing.

 

[M@R!3]

Which is why in the rare cross over he's in (World of Final Fantasy, Record Keeper and Brave Exvius) , the Disney element are never Once alluded to beside "traveling in others worlds" or "Finding the King".
They usually keep it to say that he want to find Riku and the King/His friends after His Island got eaten by the darknesses.
But it seems that having the Keyblade with the Mickey Keychain was never once a problem.

If they can get him, THIS YEAR as in like, 2019, in two Final Fantasy Mobile games, I'm 99% sure they can get him in smash.

I'd also like to point out that Sora's limited time mobile game guest appearances aren't indicative of how his appearance in Smash would be handled. Mobile games like to use limited time events as a way to encourage people to spend money for the chance to get the exclusive content before time runs out. It's a very common business strategy that extends to just about every IP out there.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Spoiler: Big Post

Let's break down my characters to watch out for across the entire plane of DLC. Not just Pack 5 contenders, but I'll put those in this color. Let's assume Spirits, Assist Trophies, Bosses, and Pokéball Pokémon are available for DLC. Mii Costumes are a special case. Non-comprehensive, I've probably missed a character or two. Lower tier characters are not bad, but I can't see them happening just yet. Only the lowest tier characters are ones who will not make it in, and at that they won't make it in as anything ever.

God Tier: I just.... I can't not see them as in. Nobody is in this tier yet, but if we get anybody who is leaked (either by a perfect-record Smash leaker or a significant video leak), I'll make sure to include them.

Top Tier: The big guys. Characters who you should all be watching out for.

1. Waluigi - the obvious one. The amount of clamour people have had for him means he would probably outsell Sans's Mii Costume. That's... that's extremely impressive, and would pretty much break any reason to exclude him based on the crowd-pleasing and commercial aspect alone. If we get any Assist Trophy out of the Snowglobe of Doom and open the door, the Purple Plumber will be the one to do it.
2. Doom Guy/Slayer - Basically the same reasons as people believe in him now. The FPS equivalent of Dragon Quest, very popular, the Bethesda talks...
3. Ryu Hayabusa - Is one of two major NES icons missing (the other is in high tier), Koei-Tecmo is already involved with Smash Bros.
4. Resident Evil - Another genre pioneer, it's the most iconic Capcom franchise to have never received Smash representation. Five viable candidates: Leon is the likeliest, then Jill, then Chris, then Wesker, and Claire is the least likely individual character. Counting the possibility of Survivor being stacked, Wesker is the least likely.
5. Crash Bandicoot - Came back to roaring success, is a worldwide icon, Activision has worked with Nintendo before.
6. Steve - The blocky boy is the face of the world's largest game. Enough said.

High Tier: Very likely, but I could understand you guys thinking they're just likely or even unlikely.

1. Arle Nadja - I've got a lot of explaining to do in another post, but bear in mind that she's the sleeper contender. She's not top tier worthy, though.
2. Phoenix Wright - A genre legend who has something new to bring. Could easily double as a Marvel vs. Capcom character in disguise by featuring
3. Bill Riser - The other one of the major NES icons who is missing. Another legend of Konami's, Contra is oft forgotten about between it, Goemon, and Frogger for Konami's third franchise. Very diverse moveset potential.
4. Agumon - Bamco's second biggest gaming franchise. It's basically legendary compared to most everything else besides Pac-Man.
5. Rex & Pyra - Rex skirts the line, but he stands out as Sakurai did seem regretful he couldn't be included in the base game.
6. Elma - If Rex doesn't count, then Elma will gladly take his place. I can see Rex, then Elma, but if Elma happens first I dunno about Rex.
7. Professor Layton - Has some things in common with Arle. However, he trades her star power in Japan and massive pushes in the west for not having competition included. Still, I don't think he has a shot for Pack 5, and is more of a globally later character.
8. Dixie Kong - The Final Missing DK character of significant worth that people have been asking for.
9. Echo Fighters in General - Echoes are far simpler to make. They don't need a stage, music, or anything but a Fighter Spirit.
10. Dante - Got everything he needed when DMC1 came to Switch.
11. Travis Touchdown - Something tells me he's got the potential to make it happen. Suda51's very much hoping.
12. Isaac - Waluigi but not as potent.
13. Tracer - Iconic character and Iconic mascot of an Iconic game. Might be a little too new, though.
14. Master Chief - Seems kinda hard to make him distinct from Doom Slayer to people unfamiliar with him, but aside from that this guy is probably Microsoft's third character.

Mid Tier: Somewhat likely but you probably shouldn't bet on them.

1. Dr. Eggman, Alucard, Raiden, another Fatal Fury character: Sakurai seems to have a preference for expanding the crossover, especially when it comes to third parties. However these characters still have several things going for them, so it isn't all gloom and doom.
2. Lloyd Irving, Heihachi Mishima: Heavily run the risk of getting Mii'd. Aside from that, it's Banjo & Steve again, one has way more Smash fans and the other wins generally.
3. KOS-MOS: The secondary dark horse candidate of the Bamco 2 race, she's got a fair bit of good things going for her but I've just got a hunch she can't compete with Agumon.
4. Shantae? Shovel Knight?: The S duo of Indies are similarly challenged. They are very unlikely to be the ones who forge a new path, I don't expect them until their doors have already been opened.
5. Sora - If Disney is cooperative, then he's in. If Disney, as I predict, tries to push for Mickey Mouse then things get dicey.

Low Tier: These characters... have a problem that prevent them from being likely. They're still feasible, but I can see some issues propping up.

1. Frisk - the Series Symbol for Undertale's Megalovania is the think keeping them in the game and out of Bottom Tier or Sony/Goku Tier. It is odd that they'd release Frisk AFTER, and not before, Sans' Mii Costume and Megalovania.
2. Unique Shadow - Shadow is very likely to be an Echo Fighter if he gets promoted.
3. Retro First Parties - They're... base game material. Things that wouldn't really sell well enough as DLC due to obscurity. I count Lip here alongside other characters.
4. Spyro: Has Scorpion's (below) main issue but not as bad.

Bottom Tier: They're incredibly unlikely. Anything is possible, but these characters are begging for miracles.

1. The DLC Mii Costumes. Tails, Knuckles, Goemon, Sans, Zero. Selling the characters again but as Fighters destroys the value of the Mii Costumes, so there is no reason to do even bother making a Mii Costume if you think, for a second, you'd make them a Fighter.
2. Scorpion. While Mortal Kombat is beloved, its dreadful reputation in Japan, Smash's home country, is not going to do him any favors.

[Funny title for worse than bottom] Tier: Uh uh, uh uh, no way. I'll believe it when I see it.

1. Ratchet & Clank, Kratos, Sly Cooper, PaRappa, Nathan Drake, Joel & Ellie: All of them are owned by Sony, the only company to have the financial stability and spite towards Nintendo to reject a Smash character for no reason. There's also no attempt at crossplay whatsoever. It's just not gonna.
2. Son Goku, SpongeBob, Shrek, Batman, Spider-Man: Do I have to say anything here? Honestly I think they're likelier than Sony characters because at least I don't think Nickelodeon or DC would reject a character the way Sony would. Still, it would take Nintendo strong-arming Sakurai into even giving it more than a little thought.
3. Any other multimedia character: The above 5 have at least one well known, beloved game (FighterZ, BFBB, SuperSlam, Arkham Asylum/City, Spider Man 2/PS4). The rest of them are examples of it being a slop stick. This is the bottom of the barrel kind of character.

Great post, man. Though I do think Phoenix belongs in the "possible contenders for FP's fifth slot" category.

And regarding the Namco people, I think Lloyd's chances might rise again after the Pass, in case we get more 3rd parties. First, because he wouldn't be in a Pass with Joker and Hero anymore. Second, because Tales is iconic among Namco properties. And third, because the inclusion of a second 2D fighting game character before Heihachi makes me think that Sakurai didn't work out an implementation for Tekken's mechanics that he was satisfied with.

I don't think the VA thing is a problem for Heihachi (see his current appearance in a mobile game), but at this point the mechanical barrier might be too much for him and other Tekken characters. I still think he, Kazuya and Jin are characters to watch out for, but it's possible Tales would take priority.

 

[Wunderwaft]

Tekken in Smash ain't happening. Sakurai said they couldn't make Heihachi work in Sm4sh, and I don't think he magically found a way to make it work now.

"But tehponycorn!" you say, "Sakurai said the same thing about Ridley, and Pac-Man, and Villager, and Miis but THEY got into Smash!" Those characters can also be faithfully adapted to Smash relatively easy. Tekken can't. And Sakurai's the kinda guy to either go for faithfulness or nothing.

Tekken's controls have each button control a limb, which can't be adapted as easily as Ryu's arcade inputs, and a large part of Tekken is the 3D movement, which just isn't possible in Smash. To put Heihachi or Jin in Smash would be to remove what makes Tekken Tekken. You'd just be adding the character for the name, which is against Sakurai's ideology with character design in Smash.

Keep in mind that Sakurai's talks about Heihachi was BEFORE he even developed Ryu, so it's possible that experience with developing fighting game based characters may have given him a new perspective. The faithfulness argument is honestly weak, because the main reason why Ridley didn't get in Smash for over ten years is because Sakurai thought a playable Ridley isn't faithful to the character's size. Claiming that Ridley could be faithful adapted easily is history revisionism, because discussion about Ridley being incorporated faithfully almost always resulted in flaming discussion in the Smash community, this is a character that divided the community with people finding him too big and others thinking he isn't. My point is that the claim that Sakurai couldn't find a way to make Heihachi playable six years ago so that means he couldn't find one now is silly considering how Sakurai changes his mind on characters every Smash game.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

I'd also like to point out that Sora's limited time mobile game guest appearances aren't indicative of how his appearance in Smash would be handled. Mobile games like to use limited time events as a way to encourage people to spend money for the chance to get the exclusive content before time runs out. It's a very common business strategy that extends to just about every IP out there.

The fact that Disney licensed out Sora to both Record Keeper and Exivus is important though, since it shows Disney is open to licensing out Sora to other games. While Final Fantasy is easier to work out given Square Enix and Disney's joint custody of Sora, Smash Bros. is only marginally more difficult to work out (especially since upper management in SE such as Hashimoto and Normura are supportive of it).

 

[ZoroCarlos]

Let's break down my characters to watch out for across the entire plane of DLC. Not just Pack 5 contenders, but I'll put those in this color. Let's assume Spirits, Assist Trophies, Bosses, and Pokéball Pokémon are available for DLC. Mii Costumes are a special case. Non-comprehensive, I've probably missed a character or two. Lower tier characters are not bad, but I can't see them happening just yet. Only the lowest tier characters are ones who will not make it in, and at that they won't make it in as anything ever.

God Tier: I just.... I can't not see them as in. Nobody is in this tier yet, but if we get anybody who is leaked (either by a perfect-record Smash leaker or a significant video leak), I'll make sure to include them.

Top Tier: The big guys. Characters who you should all be watching out for.

1. Waluigi - the obvious one. The amount of clamour people have had for him means he would probably outsell Sans's Mii Costume. That's... that's extremely impressive, and would pretty much break any reason to exclude him based on the crowd-pleasing and commercial aspect alone. If we get any Assist Trophy out of the Snowglobe of Doom and open the door, the Purple Plumber will be the one to do it.
2. Doom Guy/Slayer - Basically the same reasons as people believe in him now. The FPS equivalent of Dragon Quest, very popular, the Bethesda talks...
3. Ryu Hayabusa - Is one of two major NES icons missing (the other is in high tier), Koei-Tecmo is already involved with Smash Bros.
4. Resident Evil - Another genre pioneer, it's the most iconic Capcom franchise to have never received Smash representation. Five viable candidates: Leon is the likeliest, then Jill, then Chris, then Wesker, and Claire is the least likely individual character. Counting the possibility of Survivor being stacked, Wesker is the least likely.
5. Crash Bandicoot - Came back to roaring success, is a worldwide icon, Activision has worked with Nintendo before.
6. Steve - The blocky boy is the face of the world's largest game. Enough said.

High Tier: Very likely, but I could understand you guys thinking they're just likely or even unlikely.

1. Arle Nadja - I've got a lot of explaining to do in another post, but bear in mind that she's the sleeper contender. She's not top tier worthy, though.
2. Phoenix Wright - A genre legend who has something new to bring. Could easily double as a Marvel vs. Capcom character in disguise by featuring
3. Bill Riser - The other one of the major NES icons who is missing. Another legend of Konami's, Contra is oft forgotten about between it, Goemon, and Frogger for Konami's third franchise. Very diverse moveset potential.
4. Agumon - Bamco's second biggest gaming franchise. It's basically legendary compared to most everything else besides Pac-Man.
5. Rex & Pyra - Rex skirts the line, but he stands out as Sakurai did seem regretful he couldn't be included in the base game.
6. Elma - If Rex doesn't count, then Elma will gladly take his place. I can see Rex, then Elma, but if Elma happens first I dunno about Rex.
7. Professor Layton - Has some things in common with Arle. However, he trades her star power in Japan and massive pushes in the west for not having competition included. Still, I don't think he has a shot for Pack 5, and is more of a globally later character.
8. Dixie Kong - The Final Missing DK character of significant worth that people have been asking for.
9. Echo Fighters in General - Echoes are far simpler to make. They don't need a stage, music, or anything but a Fighter Spirit.
10. Dante - Got everything he needed when DMC1 came to Switch.
11. Travis Touchdown - Something tells me he's got the potential to make it happen. Suda51's very much hoping.
12. Isaac - Waluigi but not as potent.
13. Tracer - Iconic character and Iconic mascot of an Iconic game. Might be a little too new, though.
14. Master Chief - Seems kinda hard to make him distinct from Doom Slayer to people unfamiliar with him, but aside from that this guy is probably Microsoft's third character.

Mid Tier: Somewhat likely but you probably shouldn't bet on them.

1. Dr. Eggman, Alucard, Raiden, another Fatal Fury character: Sakurai seems to have a preference for expanding the crossover, especially when it comes to third parties. However these characters still have several things going for them, so it isn't all gloom and doom.
2. Lloyd Irving, Heihachi Mishima: Heavily run the risk of getting Mii'd. Aside from that, it's Banjo & Steve again, one has way more Smash fans and the other wins generally.
3. KOS-MOS: The secondary dark horse candidate of the Bamco 2 race, she's got a fair bit of good things going for her but I've just got a hunch she can't compete with Agumon.
4. Shantae? Shovel Knight?: The S duo of Indies are similarly challenged. They are very unlikely to be the ones who forge a new path, I don't expect them until their doors have already been opened.
5. Sora - If Disney is cooperative, then he's in. If Disney, as I predict, tries to push for Mickey Mouse then things get dicey.

Low Tier: These characters... have a problem that prevent them from being likely. They're still feasible, but I can see some issues propping up.

1. Frisk - the Series Symbol for Undertale's Megalovania is the think keeping them in the game and out of Bottom Tier or Sony/Goku Tier. It is odd that they'd release Frisk AFTER, and not before, Sans' Mii Costume and Megalovania.
2. Unique Shadow - Shadow is very likely to be an Echo Fighter if he gets promoted.
3. Retro First Parties - They're... base game material. Things that wouldn't really sell well enough as DLC due to obscurity. I count Lip here alongside other characters.
4. Spyro: Has Scorpion's (below) main issue but not as bad.

Bottom Tier: They're incredibly unlikely. Anything is possible, but these characters are begging for miracles.

1. The DLC Mii Costumes. Tails, Knuckles, Goemon, Sans, Zero. Selling the characters again but as Fighters destroys the value of the Mii Costumes, so there is no reason to do even bother making a Mii Costume if you think, for a second, you'd make them a Fighter.
2. Scorpion. While Mortal Kombat is beloved, its dreadful reputation in Japan, Smash's home country, is not going to do him any favors.

[Funny title for worse than bottom] Tier: Uh uh, uh uh, no way. I'll believe it when I see it.

1. Ratchet & Clank, Kratos, Sly Cooper, PaRappa, Nathan Drake, Joel & Ellie: All of them are owned by Sony, the only company to have the financial stability and spite towards Nintendo to reject a Smash character for no reason. There's also no attempt at crossplay whatsoever. It's just not gonna.
2. Son Goku, SpongeBob, Shrek, Batman, Spider-Man: Do I have to say anything here? Honestly I think they're likelier than Sony characters because at least I don't think Nickelodeon or DC would reject a character the way Sony would. Still, it would take Nintendo strong-arming Sakurai into even giving it more than a little thought.
3. Any other multimedia character: The above 5 have at least one well known, beloved game (FighterZ, BFBB, SuperSlam, Arkham Asylum/City, Spider Man 2/PS4). The rest of them are examples of it being a slop stick. This is the bottom of the barrel kind of character.

Bruh you can't just forget the homies Bandana Dee and Rayman like that

 

[Nquoid]

I have spent so much time watching gameplay from Garou: Mark of the Wolves, that I have just bought the game on Switch and will find it a personal attack if Terry doesn't come with that sweet bomber jacket as an alt.

 

[Just a random scrub]

I'm going to go make a hard call right now, because I'm just feeling this right now. I know we're still nowhere near the end, but goddamn it, I actually feel confident in this now. Waluigi will cap everything off. Waluigi will be the very last newcomer revealed for both Smash Ultimate and the entire Super Smash Bros series before it gets rebooted entirely, and he will be given an extremely badass trailer.

Somebody screencap this.

 

[Ridrool64]

Figures.

Bandana Dee and Rayman are both in High. I can see both of them being the pioneers for Spirit Promotions, although Bandana Dee would be for Japan while Rayman would be for the west. They've got everything else you'd like to have in a Smash candidate.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Keep in mind that Sakurai's talks about Heihachi was BEFORE he even developed Ryu, so it's possible that experience with developing fighting game based characters may have given him a new perspective. The faithfulness argument is honestly weak, because the main reason why Ridley didn't get in Smash for over ten years is because Sakurai thought a playable Ridley isn't faithful to the character's size. Claiming that Ridley could be faithful adapted easily is history revisionism, because discussion about Ridley being incorporated faithfully almost always resulted in flaming discussion in the Smash community, this is a character that divided the community with people finding him too big and others thinking he isn't. My point is that the claim that Sakurai couldn't find a way to make Heihachi playable six years ago so that means he couldn't find one now is silly considering how Sakurai changes his mind on characters every Smash game.

Say hello to the latest in speculation meta: quoting an old post since I'm too lazy to repeat my claims.

Tekken in Smash ain't happening. Sakurai said they couldn't make Heihachi work in Sm4sh, and I don't think he magically found a way to make it work now.

"But tehponycorn!" you say, "Sakurai said the same thing about Ridley, and Pac-Man, and Villager, and Miis but THEY got into Smash!" Those characters can also be faithfully adapted to Smash relatively easy. Tekken can't. And Sakurai's the kinda guy to either go for faithfulness or nothing.

Tekken's controls have each button control a limb, which can't be adapted as easily as Ryu's arcade inputs, and a large part of Tekken is the 3D movement, which just isn't possible in Smash. To put Heihachi or Jin in Smash would be to remove what makes Tekken Tekken. You'd just be adding the character for the name, which is against Sakurai's ideology with character design in Smash.

Sakurai probably had to compromise on his own vision of Ridley, but he still modeled him after OG Metroid, thus making him a faithful representation of the character.

The problem with Heihachi and Tekken is that a faithful adaptation is difficult, if not impossible, from a mechanical standpoint. Street Fighter and KOF and Tekken are very different fighting games. Street Fighter and KOF are 2D. Tekken is 3D. The 3D movement and fighting is an important part of Tekken, and cannot be represented in Smash. Same with each button controlling a different limb. That's way different than Street Fighter and KOF, where characters only have weak, medium, and strong attacks that can be adapted to Smash.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

With Sans being a Mii Costume with music, we're one step closer to getting Monika from DDLC in.

If that happens that'll probably be the biggest thing in Smash history.

 

[Troykv]

Figures.

Bandana Dee and Rayman are both in High. I can see both of them being the pioneers for Spirit Promotions, although Bandana Dee would be for Japan while Rayman would be for the west. They've got everything else you'd like to have in a Smash candidate.

If we get some kind of First Party for the fans (something exclusively for the fans stuff like K. Rool, not something that benefited from other circunstances because in that case a FE character it's the most likely thing), Bandana Dee seems like the most likely.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Figures.

Bandana Dee and Rayman are both in High. I can see both of them being the pioneers for Spirit Promotions, although Bandana Dee would be for Japan while Rayman would be for the west. They've got everything else you'd like to have in a Smash candidate.

Except neither are all that popular DLC speculation picks?

Rex & Pyra are more popular in Japan, and Geno is more popular in the West. Those characters would garner more hype and (likely) revenue for the same amount of effort.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

With Sans being a Mii Costume with music, we're one step closer to getting Monika from DDLC in.

If that happens that'll probably be the biggest thing in Smash history.

I mean, I'm pretty sure DDLC was a fad. With Undertale, people kept talking about it for years and years. This post is the first time I even saw DDLC stuff in quite a while

 

[ZoroCarlos]

Except neither are all that popular DLC speculation picks?

Rex & Pyra are more popular in Japan, and Geno is more popular in the West. Those characters would garner more hype and (likely) revenue for the same amount of effort.

As a Rayman supporter I don't deny Geno being more requested by the west, hell... Rayman, like Doom Slayer, is for the most part fueled by the west and not Japan, so if we're going by popularity then Geno comes first.

However as for Bandana Dee I think that he is more or less as requested by Japan than Rex (And I really want Rex), it's just that he missed the train for the base game and that wishful thinking has slowed down.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

I feel like Bandanna Dee is always going to struggle despite being fairly popular in the West and quite popular in Japan. There's just so much Kirby stuff in the game already when you start paying attention to everything outside of fighter (Which there are still three of). Yes, you can technically bring in "certain worlds" of the Kirby universe, but he doesn't get anywhere most other characters in that regard. Xenoblade Chronicles 2 is an entirely new world for a first party pick. Dixie Kong adds another female character to the roster. And Waluigi specifically got highlighted as the character that "Nintendo was listening" to fan demand on. Even Isaac would bring a new Golden Sun world that is barely represented, or Rhythm Heaven a new series.

I don't know, Bandanna Dee isn't a character I have any issue with and like to some extent, but it just seems like he's in a rough position.

 

[M@R!3]

The fact that Disney licensed out Sora to both Record Keeper and Exivus is important though, since it shows Disney is open to licensing out Sora to other games. While Final Fantasy is easier to work out given Square Enix and Disney's joint custody of Sora, Smash Bros. is only marginally more difficult to work out (especially since upper management in SE such as Hashimoto and Normura are supportive of it).

Can't forget World of Final Fantasy either. Another point in Sora's favor was Nomura's willingness to give creative control to Sakurai for Cloud. I imagine he would be similarly hands off with Sora.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

I love how speculation went from any Third Party to SNK to Terry and Hyabusa to EVERYONE in the span of about a week.

 

[Wunderwaft]

Say hello to the latest in speculation meta: quoting an old post since I'm too lazy to repeat my claims.

Sakurai probably had to compromise on his own vision of Ridley, but he still modeled him after OG Metroid, thus making him a faithful representation of the character.

The problem with Heihachi and Tekken is that a faithful adaptation is difficult, if not impossible, from a mechanical standpoint. Street Fighter and KOF and Tekken are very different fighting games. Street Fighter and KOF are 2D. Tekken is 3D. The 3D movement and fighting is an important part of Tekken, and cannot be represented in Smash. Same with each button controlling a different limb. That's way different than Street Fighter and KOF, where characters only have weak, medium, and strong attacks that can be adapted to Smash.

You don't need to incorporate the 3D movement for Smash. Heihachi has already appeared in two 2D fighting games, and one of them is a Smash clone. Wanna know a good way to incorporate Heihachi and give him the feeling of Tekken without the 3D movement and limb system? You can apply follow-up attacks, which can be done with set knockback and hit stun. This is something special to Tekken and you can put classic Tekken combos with his iconics moves like EWG which could easily work as his up-tilt. Just like you said, compromises can be made for characters. A character does not need to be a 100% 1:1 faithful adaptation of how they play in their own game to make it in Smash. Otherwise all the RPG characters would have menu selections like Hero.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Do you think Sakurai has to choose from a list provided by Nintendo for post Fighters Pass 1 DLC characters?

 

[RileyXY1]

Do you think Sakurai has to choose from a list provided by Nintendo for post Fighters Pass 1 DLC characters?

Not really. It appears that all the characters that he has chosen so far come from franchises that he is personally a fan of.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Not really. It appears that all the characters that he has chosen so far come from franchises that he is personally a fan of.

Wasn't it confirmed that Nintendo gave him a list from which to choose for the Fighters Pass?

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Wasn't it confirmed that Nintendo gave him a list from which to choose for the Fighters Pass?

It seems like Sakurai had a personal hand in negotiating for some of the characters on that list though.

 

[ZoroCarlos]

I thought the deal was Nintendo gave Sakurai a list of, for example, 15 characters, and Sakurai picked the 5 he thought were most realizable

 

[KatKit]

Why would you want Negan? How about a character who's ACTUALLY from a video game like Spawn from MK11 DLC?

You should've said Joker.

The problem with Heihachi and Tekken is that a faithful adaptation is difficult, if not impossible, from a mechanical standpoint. Street Fighter and KOF and Tekken are very different fighting games. Street Fighter and KOF are 2D. Tekken is 3D. The 3D movement and fighting is an important part of Tekken, and cannot be represented in Smash. Same with each button controlling a different limb. That's way different than Street Fighter and KOF, where characters only have weak, medium, and strong attacks that can be adapted to Smash.

Heihachi felt fine in Street Fighter x Tekken and PSABR. Conversely, Akuma, a 2D Street Fighter character fit in in T7, too. Would it be difficult to add Heihachi in Smash? Probably. Then again, we have Hero who has like... 100 moves. And characters who were previously thought to be too difficult to implement.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Tekken's controls have each button control a limb, which can't be adapted as easily as Ryu's arcade inputs, and a large part of Tekken is the 3D movement, which just isn't possible in Smash. To put Heihachi or Jin in Smash would be to remove what makes Tekken Tekken. You'd just be adding the character for the name, which is against Sakurai's ideology with character design in Smash.

I'm sorry but, I absolutely loath the argument of "Without this element, they aren't that character anymore, and since you can't put that element in Smash, you shouldn't put the character in Smash!" A character is a CHARACTER, not just a collection of gameplay functions.

Like, Little Mac doesn't play anything in Smash like he does in Punch-Out. And he has almost the exact same "one button controls each limb" style of gameplay in Punch-Out.

You really don't have to go out of your way to shoehorn gameplay that doesn't fit Smash onto a character to try and make them like they are in their own game. They did that with Hero and I think he's a much worse character for it than if they'd just chosen a simple, solid moveset for him.

That said, I think they'd be better off going with Kazuya. He's got an eye laser and can transform into a demon, so he's got a little more going on than Heihachi.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

It seems like Sakurai had a personal hand in negotiating for some of the characters on that list though.

Based on what?

 

[Nemuresu]

Wasn't it confirmed that Nintendo gave him a list from which to choose for the Fighters Pass?

It was. But then, someone from Atlus said that Sakurai approached the company to include Joker in Smash, and people have been questioning since then if that Twitter statement was real or if it was just a lie to shut people up on character requests.

 

[Deleted member]

Let's break down my characters to watch out for across the entire plane of DLC. Not just Pack 5 contenders, but I'll put those in this color. Let's assume Spirits, Assist Trophies, Bosses, and Pokéball Pokémon are available for DLC. Mii Costumes are a special case. Non-comprehensive, I've probably missed a character or two. Lower tier characters are not bad, but I can't see them happening just yet. Only the lowest tier characters are ones who will not make it in, and at that they won't make it in as anything ever.

God Tier: I just.... I can't not see them as in. Nobody is in this tier yet, but if we get anybody who is leaked (either by a perfect-record Smash leaker or a significant video leak), I'll make sure to include them.

Top Tier: The big guys. Characters who you should all be watching out for.

1. Waluigi - the obvious one. The amount of clamour people have had for him means he would probably outsell Sans's Mii Costume. That's... that's extremely impressive, and would pretty much break any reason to exclude him based on the crowd-pleasing and commercial aspect alone. If we get any Assist Trophy out of the Snowglobe of Doom and open the door, the Purple Plumber will be the one to do it.
2. Doom Guy/Slayer - Basically the same reasons as people believe in him now. The FPS equivalent of Dragon Quest, very popular, the Bethesda talks...
3. Ryu Hayabusa - Is one of two major NES icons missing (the other is in high tier), Koei-Tecmo is already involved with Smash Bros.
4. Resident Evil - Another genre pioneer, it's the most iconic Capcom franchise to have never received Smash representation. Five viable candidates: Leon is the likeliest, then Jill, then Chris, then Wesker, and Claire is the least likely individual character. Counting the possibility of Survivor being stacked, Wesker is the least likely.
5. Crash Bandicoot - Came back to roaring success, is a worldwide icon, Activision has worked with Nintendo before.
6. Steve - The blocky boy is the face of the world's largest game. Enough said.

High Tier: Very likely, but I could understand you guys thinking they're just likely or even unlikely.

1. Arle Nadja - I've got a lot of explaining to do in another post, but bear in mind that she's the sleeper contender. She's not top tier worthy, though.
2. Phoenix Wright - A genre legend who has something new to bring. Could easily double as a Marvel vs. Capcom character in disguise by featuring
3. Bill Riser - The other one of the major NES icons who is missing. Another legend of Konami's, Contra is oft forgotten about between it, Goemon, and Frogger for Konami's third franchise. Very diverse moveset potential.
4. Agumon - Bamco's second biggest gaming franchise. It's basically legendary compared to most everything else besides Pac-Man.
5. Rex & Pyra - Rex skirts the line, but he stands out as Sakurai did seem regretful he couldn't be included in the base game.
6. Elma - If Rex doesn't count, then Elma will gladly take his place. I can see Rex, then Elma, but if Elma happens first I dunno about Rex.
7. Professor Layton - Has some things in common with Arle. However, he trades her star power in Japan and massive pushes in the west for not having competition included. Still, I don't think he has a shot for Pack 5, and is more of a globally later character.
8. Dixie Kong - The Final Missing DK character of significant worth that people have been asking for.
9. Echo Fighters in General - Echoes are far simpler to make. They don't need a stage, music, or anything but a Fighter Spirit.
10. Dante - Got everything he needed when DMC1 came to Switch.
11. Travis Touchdown - Something tells me he's got the potential to make it happen. Suda51's very much hoping.
12. Isaac - Waluigi but not as potent.
13. Tracer - Iconic character and Iconic mascot of an Iconic game. Might be a little too new, though.
14. Master Chief - Seems kinda hard to make him distinct from Doom Slayer to people unfamiliar with him, but aside from that this guy is probably Microsoft's third character.

Mid Tier: Somewhat likely but you probably shouldn't bet on them.

1. Dr. Eggman, Alucard, Raiden, another Fatal Fury character: Sakurai seems to have a preference for expanding the crossover, especially when it comes to third parties. However these characters still have several things going for them, so it isn't all gloom and doom.
2. Lloyd Irving, Heihachi Mishima: Heavily run the risk of getting Mii'd. Aside from that, it's Banjo & Steve again, one has way more Smash fans and the other wins generally.
3. KOS-MOS: The secondary dark horse candidate of the Bamco 2 race, she's got a fair bit of good things going for her but I've just got a hunch she can't compete with Agumon.
4. Shantae? Shovel Knight?: The S duo of Indies are similarly challenged. They are very unlikely to be the ones who forge a new path, I don't expect them until their doors have already been opened.
5. Sora - If Disney is cooperative, then he's in. If Disney, as I predict, tries to push for Mickey Mouse then things get dicey.

Low Tier: These characters... have a problem that prevent them from being likely. They're still feasible, but I can see some issues propping up.

1. Frisk - the Series Symbol for Undertale's Megalovania is the think keeping them in the game and out of Bottom Tier or Sony/Goku Tier. It is odd that they'd release Frisk AFTER, and not before, Sans' Mii Costume and Megalovania.
2. Unique Shadow - Shadow is very likely to be an Echo Fighter if he gets promoted.
3. Retro First Parties - They're... base game material. Things that wouldn't really sell well enough as DLC due to obscurity. I count Lip here alongside other characters.
4. Spyro: Has Scorpion's (below) main issue but not as bad.

Bottom Tier: They're incredibly unlikely. Anything is possible, but these characters are begging for miracles.

1. The DLC Mii Costumes. Tails, Knuckles, Goemon, Sans, Zero. Selling the characters again but as Fighters destroys the value of the Mii Costumes, so there is no reason to do even bother making a Mii Costume if you think, for a second, you'd make them a Fighter.
2. Scorpion. While Mortal Kombat is beloved, its dreadful reputation in Japan, Smash's home country, is not going to do him any favors.

[Funny title for worse than bottom] Tier: Uh uh, uh uh, no way. I'll believe it when I see it.

1. Ratchet & Clank, Kratos, Sly Cooper, PaRappa, Nathan Drake, Joel & Ellie: All of them are owned by Sony, the only company to have the financial stability and spite towards Nintendo to reject a Smash character for no reason. There's also no attempt at crossplay whatsoever. It's just not gonna.
2. Son Goku, SpongeBob, Shrek, Batman, Spider-Man: Do I have to say anything here? Honestly I think they're likelier than Sony characters because at least I don't think Nickelodeon or DC would reject a character the way Sony would. Still, it would take Nintendo strong-arming Sakurai into even giving it more than a little thought.
3. Any other multimedia character: The above 5 have at least one well known, beloved game (FighterZ, BFBB, SuperSlam, Arkham Asylum/City, Spider Man 2/PS4). The rest of them are examples of it being a slop stick. This is the bottom of the barrel kind of character.

I mostly agree with that except for a few certain things, tweaks and of course glaring omissions:

Spoiler: Agreements: Isaac and Rex

I agree with what you said about Waluigi and especially Isaac. I feel like some people may be sleeping on him just a tad he isn't super likely or anywhere near Waluigi's potential level but maybe an average or slightly above average chance. Nintendo not only listened to the Waluigi backlash but also Isaac's backlash and based on Sabi's post from November they were shocked at how big of a backlash Isaac got:

I posted what my NoA connection said in the Geno thread, since that's where I'm at most of the time. Posted a screenshot of his message in particular, but I'll post it here for good measure. GS fans NEED to follow through with his advice if they want Isaac in the future:

View attachment 180464

and if Sakurai's wording about wanting to fulfill even more fan demand the frontrunners for that in my opinion are (In no particular order): Rex/Pyra, Isaac, Waluigi and Geno. Fan demand is definitely a leading factor for two of those at least (Geno and Isaac) plus if the "New Worlds" comment wasn't a mistranslation Golden Sun would technically be new to the roster of Smash maybe not the game itself but to the Roster. Isaac probably has a decent chance if Assists can be upgraded.

Rex and Pyra I definitely agree with Sakurai seemed saddened that he couldn't add them to the game cause the project plan was too ahead and early for them but luckily with additional DLC on the way that "too late" statement is completely irrelevant and now I can actually see them getting it as that was one of the if not the only thing holding him back.

And then here's the two omissions I would like to point out:

Spoiler: Omissions: Geno and Rhythm Heaven

1) A Rhythm Heaven rep: Be it Chorus Kids who may have been cut from Smash 4 or someone like Karate Joe I could see a Rhythm Heaven rep potentially happening for a few reasons.

-If the "New Worlds" statement is to be taken at face value Chorus Kids or some Rhythm Heaven rep would be a new world/franchise in the Smash Roster.

-Sakurai seems like the type of dude to want to revisit old ideas and bring them to life as (while this could be coincidence) Banjo was added into Smash and he was considered for Melee and Chorus Kids were most likely worked on for Smash 4 yet were scrapped due to the 3DS limitations (the 3DS limitations is just my theory though)

-Rhythm Heaven is one of the few ongoing (as in alive since they last had a game on the 3DS which wasn't very long ago) Nintendo properties yet to have a newcomer in Smash.

-A Rhythm Heaven rep is sort of popular and somewhat requested so with a lot of the requests already scratched from Base Game they may want to branch out a bit bring in new franchises from Nintendo that people are requesting and Rhythm Heaven is one of those said franchises that seem to be requested somewhat frequently.



And finally the last thing I want to bring up and that is of course, 2) Geno: I would say Geno is very likely to be in Smash now that it's getting additional DLC and there's a lot going for him currently.

-Geno is one of the last fan demanded characters along the lines of Ridley, K. Rool and Banjo he has consistently topped polls as an always consistent top 10 character if not top 5. (Though same could be said for Sora and vice-versa as I brought it up last time I mentioned Sora.)

-Sakurai wants publicly stated he wanted Geno and has tried to get him in Smash once at least if not multiple times. These recent picks have mostly been Sakurai picks and if that trend continues Geno would boost (no pun intended) to be likely if not highly likely.

-Geno still doesn't have a Mii Costume despite him getting a Mii Costume last game and hopefully if his Mii Costume doesn't return with these final two DLC characters inside of the pass Geno survived the Mii Costume massacre and so he looks to be likely as why wouldn't you bring the Mii Costume back unless you have plans for the little guy?

-A Beware the Forests Mushrooms Smash remix by 31 Horas was taken down around the same time a Megalovania Smash remix and Banjo-Kazooie Smash Remix were last year (https://youtu.be/-F6YEkXEHpM) and as we all know Banjo was added to the game and Sans was added as a Mii Costume + Song track. Could it mean Geno is coming back with a Mii Costume? Sure, Absolutely but with K. Rool, Ridley and Banjo all getting in I think it may be more.

and that's just mentioning everything off the top of my head there could be and probably is more to cover than what I mentioned but as always I should try and be as unbiased as possible so:

-As I mentioned with Sora fan demand doesn't always guarantee a slot (Waluigi and Isaac assist trophies) so Sakurai could choose to either A) Not go with many more fan requests (though I doubt this) or B) choose other characters (though this one is an iffy statement it very well could happen).

-Sakurai may want Geno but Square is very stingy and kind of a stickler for money so they could try and over price Geno making Nintendo not want to go for him or Sakurai might've dropped interest in Geno (though this is a lot less likely).

-A Beware the forests mushrooms remix was taken down sure but a Shrek one was as well and as we all know Shrek isn't getting into Smash.

Haha.. Unless..? /s

TL;DR: I agree with what you said about Isaac and Rex/Pyra but I feel like you left out a Rhythm Heaven rep and of course my dude Geno. Geno is totally a contender I feel.

 

[M@R!3]

Based on what?

The selection we have so far.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

It was. But then, someone from Atlus said that Sakurai approached the company to include Joker in Smash, and people have been questioning since then if that Twitter statement was real or if it was just a lie to shut people up on character requests.

That doesn't contradict the list. Are you assuming that Nintendo went to a bunch of companies and got permission for their characters, put those characters in a list, and gave that list to Sakurai?

The selection we have so far.

All the characters so far are big enough or have enough demand that Nintendo believably could have put them on the list.

 

[RileyXY1]

Also, I believe that if Nintendo chose the DLC characters, then all of them would be promo characters for upcoming Switch games.

 

[DarthEnderX]

I thought the deal was Nintendo gave Sakurai a list of, for example, 15 characters, and Sakurai picked the 5 he thought were most realizable

That was my understanding of the situation as well from how Sakurai vaguely described it.

It was like, "Here's the list of companies that offered BJs to the CEO to get their character into Smash. Please choose 5 of them Sakurai-san. The CEO is not picky when it comes to BJs..."

 

[Nemuresu]

That doesn't contradict the list. Are you assuming that Nintendo went to a bunch of companies and got permission for their characters, put those characters in a list, and gave that list to Sakurai?

Kind of. Since the DLC was negotiated last year, I'm led to believe that Nintendo had short talks with different companies just to get some pre-approval before Sakurai started the real negotiations after choosing the characters from Nintendo's list.

Not that I consider the twitt to be a lie, but I definitely think the negotiations were much more complicated than what Sakurai in his Famitsu column suggested.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Also, I believe that if Nintendo chose the DLC characters, then all of them would be promo characters for upcoming Switch games.

Adding a character to promote another game, especially a game that hasn't been released, is taking a risk that isn't being taken when adding a character with great fan demand. The latter is practically guaranteed to make a lot of money from Smash. The former is risking low Smash sales and the advertising failing to translate to game sales.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Kind of. Since the DLC was negotiated last year, I'm led to believe that Nintendo had short talks with different companies just to get some pre-approval before Sakurai started the real negotiations after choosing the characters from Nintendo's list.

Not that I consider the twitt to be a lie, but I definitely think the negotiations were much more complicated than what Sakurai in his Famitsu column suggested.

Did the tweet say that Nintendo didn't approach Atlus before Sakurai did?

 

[M@R!3]

All the characters so far are big enough or have enough demand that Nintendo believably could have put them on the list.

That's possible, but in that case the list was very broad. There should be little to stop Nintendo from limiting the list to options that would be the most profitable. Yet we have a selection of characters that appeal to specific fan bases in certain regions of the world, and one total wildcard in the form of Joker. These are still profitable choices, but the only truly safe choice was Banjo, and Hero since Japan is just that nuts when it comes to DQ.

 

[SKX31]

And China!

It was clear that this was a pick that was a combination of a good working relationship (SNK ported all their classic arcade games to the Switch early on and they sold massively), Sakurai passion (KOF inspired Smash), and as Nintendo has been saying again and again a new demographic (Latin America and China, which is a market Nintendo is trying to breach).

As always it's worth looking at what market can Nintendo capture with the DLC outside of the worldwide one? And that's why I really think Phoenix or Layton could be next.

That's not limited to China either. Nintendo's new President, Shuntaro Furukawa (he's younger than Sakurai. Huh.) apparently wants to expand Nintendo's reach into the Middle East and Southeast Asia. Aka. Thailand, Indonesia and the like. I suspect they decided to do this after they saw a sales spike in those two regions. (Can anyone here read Japanese? I'd love to get the summary of the original Nintendo report). Guess their smartphone efforts are starting to give results.

Digging a little deeper, it's not a surprise. Apparently the UAE and Saudi Arabia are "among the countries with the highest smartphone penetrations in the world, standing at 80.6% and 65.2%, respectively. " Egypt does not lag far behind. Gaming as a hobby is growing (if a bit haphazardly it seems) everywhere*, and there's already a small Smash scene in Saudi Arabia. Their top talent's pretty good. Haven't been able to find much on SEA, though. Apparently there are small but active Smash scenes in Singapore and the Phillipines.

As for what those regions would like? I've only found two articles (from 2018), but those are far, far from top-of-the-line speculation fodder. The UAE picks seems to be A) Fortnite B) Kratos or C) LoL / Dota 2 rep. Southeast Asia, meanwhile, loves Valve's stuff (they're one of the major Dota 2 regions. Malaysians and Phillipines especially love that game.) and PUBG. Tekken is, surprisingly enough, really, really popular in Pakistan though.

I should note something important here: KOF got popular in Latin America and China because of the cabinets being really cheap (and easy to bootleg). Is it any wonder then that games like Minecraft, MOBAs and mobile games have real worldwide staying power? Being able to just pop in and play is always going to draw people (whether its arcades, internet cafés or whatever) - especially kids. And doubly true if you are (relatively) poor. It will take some time for ME and SEA to start mattering IMO, but the seeds have already been planted.

Also we shouldn't expect Nintendo to be automatically successful everywhere. But Furukawa could be thinking something like this: "Hey, if smartphones are everywhere, there's obviously an opening for the Nintendo Switch. And, we don't have to worry (as much) about countries with really harsh laws. Our games are family friendly fun!" No region lock should help too.

*(Yes, even Africa. Guess Fortnite, Street Fighter and Candy Crush know no bounds.)

 

[Slashy]

Can we finally get a Sonic newcomer ?

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

That's possible, but in that case the list was very broad. There should be little to stop Nintendo from limiting the list to options that would be the most profitable. Yet we have a selection of characters that appeal to specific fan bases in certain regions of the world, and one total wildcard in the form of Joker. These are still profitable choices, but the only truly safe choice was Banjo, and Hero since Japan is just that nuts when it comes to DQ.

Not as broad as including any crazy character Sakurai feels like adding.