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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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....Honestly, call me crazy, but, I ask...

What delays?



Maybe a hot as hell take but... isn't it kinda odd how despite the 'delays', that characters have still came out on average with the release schedule of the first pass?

Isn't it odd that Steve just happened to come out right in time for Minecon?

Isn't it really odd that Sephiroth dropped right at the Game Awards, where FF7R was up for awards?


Maybe Min Min was delayed a bit, but to me, literally everything else seems on track, if not outright planned.
Honestly, I feel like Steve wasn't actually delayed so much as was finished fairly close to Minecon and they just "oh, hey, let's make it easier to hype up".

Though yeah, it makes perfect sense to set it up for Minecon due to Min Min's delay. Otherwise, E3 might've been when Steve was planned to show up.

Sephiroth was probably always TGA, though. Like, was there any other place that makes sense?
 

Shroob

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Now that you mention it, yeah, wouldn't there be data on the Mii Costumes? They still need to be approved and licensed even if they're returning alongside an appropriate track for marketing
Truth be told, if this gigaleak only goes a year back, then it's very possible all this stuff was struck in 2018, if not earlier. If Steve was in talks for upwards of 5 years, and Sephiroth was apparently in talks before the game even came out, then it's very likely this supposed Capcom character could have been as well.
Honestly, I feel like Steve wasn't actually delayed so much as was finished fairly close to Minecon and they just "oh, hey, let's make it easier to hype up".

Though yeah, it makes perfect sense to set it up for Minecon due to Min Min's delay. Otherwise, E3 might've been when Steve was planned to show up.

Sephiroth was probably always TGA, though. Like, was there any other place that makes sense?
Honestly? I think there's an easy answer here that most people just don't wanna admit.


We were always going to get a single Fighter this E3. Byleth started the trend of "We'll release a trailer....NOW!.... and you get to play as them... in TWO WEEKS!" If Min Min had followed suit, I seriously doubt that Steve would have broken that pattern.
 
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....Honestly, call me crazy, but, I ask...

What delays?



Maybe a hot as hell take but... isn't it kinda odd how despite the 'delays', that characters have still came out on average with the release schedule of the first pass?

Isn't it odd that Steve just happened to come out right in time for Minecon?

Isn't it really odd that Sephiroth dropped right at the Game Awards, where FF7R was up for awards?


Maybe Min Min was delayed a bit, but to me, literally everything else seems on track, if not outright planned.
Here's when they mentioned that CP6 would be from Arms and that they have to extend their development time.


And tbh, I just assumed that Covid caused a delay, so you can ignore that point if you want.
 

Shroob

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Here's when they mentioned that CP6 would be from Arms and that they have to extend their development time.


And tbh, I just assumed that Covid caused a delay, so you can ignore that point if you want.
I don't doubt that Min Min was probably delayed a bit, but then everything else kinda neatly falls into place and you have to wonder if they really got hit 'that' bad.


Like, we're projected to hit the end of the pass in like, September of next year, assuming a March and June release, that's 3 months before their December deadline. There may have been a very small delay, but Steve and Sephiroth's reveal windows seem too perfect to be coincidence.
 

I.D.

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....Honestly, call me crazy, but, I ask...

What delays?



Maybe a hot as hell take but... isn't it kinda odd how despite the 'delays', that characters have still came out on average with the release schedule of the first pass?

Isn't it odd that Steve just happened to come out right in time for Minecon?

Isn't it really odd that Sephiroth dropped right at the Game Awards, where FF7R was up for awards?


Maybe Min Min was delayed a bit, but to me, literally everything else seems on track, if not outright planned.
Sakurai straight up told us there have been no delays. That development from home was going smoothly.

The reason there was a massive time gap between Byleth and Min Min is the reason everyone expected in the first place but has kinda forgotten about now in favor of juicy theories about fighters being decided by 2015. They were different passes. Fighters Pass 2 had most likely not entered production until late in 2019, and thus the Smash team had no work done on it.
 
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Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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Honestly? I think there's an easy answer here that most people just don't wanna admit.


We were always going to get a single Fighter this E3. Byleth started the trend of "We'll release a trailer....NOW!.... and you get to play as them... in TWO WEEKS!" If Min Min had followed suit, I seriously doubt that Steve would have broken that pattern.
Oh, I wasn't referring to multiple E3 fighters. Min Min was probably a single month back at earliest, Steve was either E3 or Minecon, and I got no clue if Sephiroth had another plausible reveal time.

I never bought into the idea E3 had to have more. Or it had to be a massive icon(though to be fair, sometimes it does. Though that said, one E3 had the big icon behind closed doors, with Miis being shown off as the other icon, and Palutena as the smaller character. A rare and unusual moment).
 

XorahnGaia

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I don't think Smash not being mentioned in the Capcom Ranson leak means anything... at least for now.

Keep in mind that there are still loads of data that haven't been made public yet. Also, most of the data we already have are pretty inconsistent: I already mentioned that the release schedule is missing some games that are going to come out next year, but there are also some bits that were related to bigger chunks of data that were revealed at a later date (for example, you'll think they would mention Phoenix Wright inclusion in Teppen somewhere in the initial slides when they talked about expanding the reach for the series, and yet it was discovered some days after). There's also the possibility that a potential Smash inclusion wouldn't be discussed at all in slides aimed at investors; maybe they only clue we could get are some exchange of e-mails between Capcom and Nintendo (kinda like we found out about the amount of money Sony paid to have RE7 VR as an exclusive).
 

Shroob

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Sakurai straight up told us there have been no delays. That development from home was going smoothly.

The reason there was a massive time gap between Byleth and Min Min is the reason everyone expected in the first place but has kinda forgotten about now in favor of juicy theories about fighters being decided by 2015. They were different passes. Fighters Pass 2 had most likely not entered production until late in 2019, and thus the Smash team had no work done on it.
And that's my stance on it as well. People cry delays and it just doesn't match the evidence. Steve and Sephiroth's reveals were too planned to be anything but that.

There's also the fact that, as you said, Sakurai's said on multiple occasions that dev time had been going smoothly, and frankly, he actually meant it.


The fact that the DLC is projected to end months before the given end date speaks enough volumes as is.
 

Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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And that's my stance on it as well. People cry delays and it just doesn't match the evidence. Steve and Sephiroth's reveals were too planned to be anything but that.

There's also the fact that, as you said, Sakurai's said on multiple occasions that dev time had been going smoothly, and frankly, he actually meant it.


The fact that the DLC is projected to end months before the given end date speaks enough volumes as is.
The only delay at best, with that in mind, is what he said with Min Min. Other than that, yeah, it makes sense things went smoothly. The way he talks about COVID, it sounds like things went very nicely and he was ultimately worried about issues that overall didn't come up. A reasonable worry, but hey, it won't always go bad, heh.

But I get what you mean now. That nothing was actually changed for dates. So you're suggesting only Min Min was intended for E3 if anyone, then?
 
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Regardless if Nintendo and Sakurai actually originally planned CP9 to come out March next year, which I still find unlikely.

The fact that anniversaries doesn't really matter in Smash is still a valid point. Just because a game is having an anniversary the same month a Smash character is coming out, it doesn't mean that a character from that game is going to be coming to Smash.
 

Dinoman96

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It's just a strange thought that they were going follow up E3 2018's Everyone is Here + Ridley and 2019's Hero + Banjo reveal with just...Min Min.
 

Shroob

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The only delay at best, with that in mind, is what he said with Min Min. Other than that, yeah, it makes sense things went smoothly. The way he talks about COVID, it sounds like things went very nicely and he was ultimately worried about issues that overall didn't come up. A reasonable worry, but hey, it won't always go bad, heh.

But I get what you mean now. That nothing was actually changed for dates. So you're suggesting only Min Min was intended for E3 if anyone, then?
I mean, I kinda expect, if there IS an E3 for next year, that we're probably only getting a single character there as well.


The first fighter pass had to cram everything into a single year, and Nintendo Directs are a limited resource when your first Direct is Feb and you don't have another until E3 that year, so for 2019, 2 reveals at E3 made perfect sense.

For the 2nd pass though? They gave themselves 2 whole years to get this done, and Byleth marked a turning point in reveals/releases in "Reveal now, release shortly after".


Not even 48 hours and we're already speculating the next character... wow we are sad, strange little men.
And proud of it.


Regardless if Nintendo and Sakurai actually originally planned CP9 to come out March next year, which I still find unlikely.

The fact that anniversaries doesn't really matter in Smash is still a valid point. Just because a game is having an anniversary the same month a Smash character is coming out, it doesn't mean that a character from that game is going to be coming to Smash.
I mean, you're definitely not wrong, but right now, everyone's pretty much pinning Capcom for next if only due to basic good marketing with the Mii Fighters, and if the Mii Fighters are coming back, then that 'probably' means Capcom. Not 100% no, but they've held onto them for this long for a reason it feels, otherwise they could have been tossed in anywhere.

I admit, it could be 'any' Capcom character sure, but let's cross that bridge when we get there.
 

Michael the Spikester

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I was always under the impression that Ky Kiske was the main char of Guilty Gear, learned different after looking into it today so you may have a point. I completely disagree about Nightmare being the Soul Caliber mascot though. Mitsuruigi was the initial protagonist of the series and then Killik was the protagonist after him. There is no reason why we should even expect Nightmare to get in over them. Hell I think Ivy was the series most popular character, and Cervantes was the most popular antagonist iirc.

Nightmare is definitely their mascot.
 
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Shroob

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It's just a strange thought that they were going follow up E3 2018's Everyone is Here + Ridley and 2019's Hero + Banjo reveal with just...Min Min.
I mean, how many Directs did 2019 Nintendo do? Feb, June, September and.... that was it. We got dates for Sakurai presents sure, but pretty much 2019 was directed by, dare I say, Directs, with only Joker being a true shadowdrop. With that little amount of real estate, they had to cram in everything that they could, and around Byleth, they had a complete overhaul in how they reveal/release characters.

....and like, if you give yourself 2 whole years to pump out 6 characters, and you've completely re-done your way to reveal/release, why wouldn't you drop only 1 at E3? Their modus operandi nowadays is "Character reveal trailer now, release a couple weeks later", and frankly, this is way better than "Trailer now, release 2 months later."
 

The Stoopid Unikorn

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I'll just point out one thing, if that's okay. And if it's not okay, I'll still do it anyway, so get ready to be taken for a ride. -casually humming the MvC2 chararacter select theme-

A pattern was noticed so far with the second Pass with the first half of it; revisiting old ideas.

ARMS failed to make it to base game since Sakurai knew of it too late. It became the Pass 2 opener.

Steve in Smash was apparently talked about for years and he ended up making it in Pass 2.

And now we have Sakurai saying FF content could take a long time to agree for due to multiple copyright holders. Sephiroth finally brought FF content in Pass 2.

However, given our track record with pattern-based theories, we don't have much of a right to think the entire Pass will be that. We can speculate it, yes, but one thing people forget is that speculation, by definition, is based on gut feelings, not facts. We have no proof the rest of the Pass will keep this pattern.

In fact, a lot of our pattern-based theories ended up not making it to the end.

For base game, we've used Music Theory to determine which franchises wouldn't get newcomers. Then Incineroar happened because yes, that theory "deconfirmed" a Pokemon newcomer.

For Pass 1, we had Third-Party Theory and Color Theory. Byleth crushed both in one swing of Amyr.

But with that said, we still nailed Box Theory, since that one was also about figuring out patterns, which helped us determine that the final two newcomers would be a unique challenger and a Smash 4 Echo. Those ended up being true.

So what I'm saying is... speculate responsibly and never take any theory as a fact. It's very possible the fighter after Sephiroth will break the current Pass 2 pattern of bringing old ideas.
 
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Shroob

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I'll just point out one thing, if that's okay. And if it's not okay, I'll still do it anyway, so get ready to be taken for a ride. -casually humming the MvC2 chararacter select theme-

A pattern was noticed so far with the second Pass with the first half of it; revisiting old ideas.

ARMS failed to make it to base game since Sakurai knew of it too late. It became the Pass 2 opener.

Steve in Smash was apparently talked about for years and he ended up making it in Pass 2.

And now we have Sakurai saying FF content could take a long time to agree for due to multiple copyright holders. Sephiroth finally brought FF content in Pass 2.

However, given our track record with pattern-based theories, we don't have much of a right to think the entire Pass will be that. We can speculate it, yes, but one thing people forget is that speculation, by definition, is based on gut feelings, not facts. We have no proof the rest of the Pass will keep this pattern.

In fact, a lot of our pattern-based theories ended up not making it to the end.

For base game, we've used Music Theory to determine which franchises wouldn't get newcomers. Then Incineroar happened because yes, that theory "deconfirmed" a Pokemon newcomer.

For Pass 1, we had Third-Party Theory and Color Theory. Byleth crushed both in one swing of Amyr.

But with that said, we still nailed Box Theory, since that one was also about figuring out patterns, which helped us determine that the final two newcomers would be a unique challenger and a Smash 4 Echo. Those ended up being true.

So what I'm saying is... speculate responsibly and never take any theory as a fact. It's very possible the fighter after Sephiroth will break the current Pass 2 pattern of bringing old ideas.
Granted, we don't even know if this Chun/Tales of leak is legit in the first place.


It IS pretty strange how a lot of what its said has been outright confirmed nowadays, be it through people like Imran on Sora, Mojang on Steve or Sakurai on FF's rights, but really, the best thing to do is wait and hope for March.
 

Mamboo07

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Fighter Pass 2 has be a chaotic mess, I must admit I love it.

We want from brand new first party ip in Min Min

To the best selling game of all time in Block man Steve

To a third party character from a franchise already in Smash with Sephiroth.

And none of them were expected. Steve had been discussed in the past but he had fallen off the radar for many. Another Final Fantasy character? Before Sonic and Mega Man? Are you out of your mind? ARMS? Is that even still a thing?

YES.

And yet discussion still seems about as vanilla as you can get. The same old Dante, Crash, Doomguy and ect.... at least the Geno discussion should finally die down.

Who am i expecting for the remainder of the pass? I'm expecting the unexpected. But to name names.

An indie character.
People are mostly expecting them as mii costumes at this point i think, its something people aren't really looking at. I'm thinking maybe Shantae since she got a spirit in Ultimate so she has the star power to at least get acknowledged. Although I'm still unsure of her Japanese prominence. Although there's always Cave Story, Hollow Knight, Hat Kid, ect.

What about another first party character? They've basically been dismissed despite getting 2 already. Sephiroth even shows it could be from a game already represented. Bandana Dee has proven to be popular and modern Kirby could offer a lot for a fighter pass. But you also Dixie, we have very little from DKC3 and Modern DK games.

Although i don't expect every newcomer to be a complete surprise. I think someone like Lloyd or Monster Hunter could maybe stand a chance. Even though they're on the chopping block to be Mii Costumed based on how things are going, they could easily throw us for a loop. Who knows?

Overall i just like the variety. RPG characters were 3/5 last time and even Smash Wii U was 5/7. I did enjoy most of those, I like how each character this time gives off a different vibe.
 

The Stoopid Unikorn

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Granted, we don't even know if this Chun/Tales of leak is legit in the first place.


It IS pretty strange how a lot of what its said has been outright confirmed nowadays, be it through people like Imran on Sora, Mojang on Steve or Sakurai on FF's rights, but really, the best thing to do is wait and hope for March.
Didn't someone on a French site manage to have the absurd luck of guessing the first four FP1 characters, leading people to think KOS-MOS would happen?

That Chun and Tales stuff could be that too. I don't wanna eleminate that possibility based on precedence.
 
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Shroob

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Didn't someone on a French site manage to have the absurd luck of guessing the first four FP1 characters, leading people to think KOS-MOS would happen?

That Chun and Tales stuff could be that too. I don't wanna eleminate that possibility based on precedence.
And that's why we watch it.

Definitely don't believe it to be confirmed yet, but if March rolls around and Chun DOES get confirmed, well, it's still not 100% a done deal yet, but the Lloyd vs Yuri wars are going to rage.
 

Swamp Sensei

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And yet discussion still seems about as vanilla as you can get.
Honestly I keep seeing comments like this and it almost feels like jealousy.

Like speculation has to entertain people as opposed to... well...

talking about likely scenarios...
 

The Stoopid Unikorn

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And that's why we watch it.

Definitely don't believe it to be confirmed yet, but if March rolls around and Chun DOES get confirmed, well, it's still not 100% a done deal yet, but the Lloyd vs Yuri wars are going to rage.
Now I kinda wish that if it's true, it just ends the Tales wars before they even begin.
 

The Stoopid Unikorn

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Honestly I keep seeing comments like this and it almost feels like jealousy.

Like speculation has to entertain people as opposed to... well...

talking about likely scenarios...
Then let's talk Nightmare because SoulCalibur, the game with wacky crossovers, being on Nintendo's own wacky crossover would be a neat idea :p

This was my however-my-posting-frequency-in-this-thread-is-because-it's-certainly-not-daily post about stanning Nightmare
 
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Dinoman96

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I mean, how many Directs did 2019 Nintendo do? Feb, June, September and.... that was it. We got dates for Sakurai presents sure, but pretty much 2019 was directed by, dare I say, Directs, with only Joker being a true shadowdrop. With that little amount of real estate, they had to cram in everything that they could, and around Byleth, they had a complete overhaul in how they reveal/release characters.

....and like, if you give yourself 2 whole years to pump out 6 characters, and you've completely re-done your way to reveal/release, why wouldn't you drop only 1 at E3? Their modus operandi nowadays is "Character reveal trailer now, release a couple weeks later", and frankly, this is way better than "Trailer now, release 2 months later."
What I meant by that was is that E3 is usually reserved for the big "megaton" reveals. Like Mega Man at 2013, Pac-Man at 2014 (yeah I know it was behind doors, but still), Ryu at 2015, Everyone is Here and Ridley at 2018, and Hero and Banjo at 2019. Most of these being big name third parties or big fan favorites. It just seems weird for E3 2020's big Smash reveal just being an ARMS character and nothing more.
 

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Fighter Pass 2 has be a chaotic mess, I must admit I love it.

We want from brand new first party ip in Min Min

To the best selling game of all time in Block man Steve

To a third party character from a franchise already in Smash with Sephiroth.

And none of them were expected. Steve had been discussed in the past but he had fallen off the radar for many. Another Final Fantasy character? Before Sonic and Mega Man? Are you out of your mind? ARMS? Is that even still a thing?

YES.

And yet discussion still seems about as vanilla as you can get. The same old Dante, Crash, Doomguy and ect.... at least the Geno discussion should finally die down.

Who am i expecting for the remainder of the pass? I'm expecting the unexpected. But to name names.

An indie character.
People are mostly expecting them as mii costumes at this point i think, its something people aren't really looking at. I'm thinking maybe Shantae since she got a spirit in Ultimate so she has the star power to at least get acknowledged. Although I'm still unsure of her Japanese prominence. Although there's always Cave Story, Hollow Knight, Hat Kid, ect.

What about another first party character? They've basically been dismissed despite getting 2 already. Sephiroth even shows it could be from a game already represented. Bandana Dee has proven to be popular and modern Kirby could offer a lot for a fighter pass. But you also Dixie, we have very little from DKC3 and Modern DK games.

Although i don't expect every newcomer to be a complete surprise. I think someone like Lloyd or Monster Hunter could maybe stand a chance. Even though they're on the chopping block to be Mii Costumed based on how things are going, they could easily throw us for a loop. Who knows?

Overall i just like the variety. RPG characters were 3/5 last time and even Smash Wii U was 5/7. I did enjoy most of those, I like how each character this time gives off a different vibe.
Uhhhh. Ok this is weird. Why did you copy what i said on Gamefaqs?
 

Shroob

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What I meant by that was is that E3 is usually reserved for the big "megaton" reveals. Like Mega Man at 2013, Pac-Man at 2014 (yeah I know it was behind doors, but still), Ryu at 2015, Everyone is Here and Ridley at 2018, and Hero and Banjo at 2019. Most of these being big name third parties or big fan favorites. It just seems weird for E3 2020's big Smash reveal just being an ARMS character and nothing more.
But at the same time, it's also undeniable that they way the reveal/release schedule shifted kinda makes a Steve reveal sus, doubly so since his reveal for Minecon feels incredibly planned out.


Weird? Yeah, but at the same time, I kinda don't put it past 'em.
 

The Stoopid Unikorn

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What I meant by that was is that E3 is usually reserved for the big "megaton" reveals. Like Mega Man at 2013, Pac-Man at 2014 (yeah I know it was behind doors, but still), Ryu at 2015, Everyone is Here and Ridley at 2018, and Hero and Banjo at 2019. Most of these being big name third parties or big fan favorites. It just seems weird for E3 2020's big Smash reveal just being an ARMS character and nothing more.
It's very possible we could have had a Steve teaser that ends after Mario explodes in Minecraft, like what we got with Terry.
 

Clumsyzephyr

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I feel as if there were too many things that ended up lining up properly for this all to be a "lucky guess". It's not just the amount he predicted, but also the elaborated info being spot on. He not only called Hero, but was correct about the character being pushed to dlc, originally planning to be base game. The info he gave about Sora lines up with what Imran has also said, and knowing that Minecraft content had been there early on would also explain why Vergeben's source told him so. While I'm not 100% on it, I think it definitely holds a lot more ground than a lot of other recent leaks. It could also be a case of if Sakurai wants to revisit every idea that couldn't make it into base game.
 

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So, just spitballing here for a sec:

The Switch launched in 2017. If I'm not mistaken, Nintendo wanted its cycle to last - at the very least - around 7 years or so. So a good prediction for its discontinuation would be around 2025.

Ultimate launched in 2018. 2019 was Fighter Pass 1, 2020-2021, Fighter Pass 2.

If we got more DLC in a similar format to Volume 2 (roughly 6 characters, spanning 2 years), the team could put out two more Volumes (2022-2023 and 2024-2025), keeping the Switch base active until its discontinuation. That's IF the Smash team wanted to do it.

...Tbh, as of now I don't believe we'll get more, mainly because I don't think the team is this committed to the long term, but I just wanted to have fun with that line of thought.
 

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NintenRob

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Honestly I keep seeing comments like this and it almost feels like jealousy.

Like speculation has to entertain people as opposed to... well...

talking about likely scenarios...
I'll answer since i originally said it

But is what people talk about even whats likely? The way discussion centres around the same few characters suggest more to me people being narrow minded. So many people were so confident in Geno and then BAM Sephiroth anf then BAM Mii Costume. Sephiroth was barely considered. Yet he got in.
 

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I'll answer since i originally said it

But is what people talk about even whats likely? The way discussion centres around the same few characters suggest more to me people being narrow minded. So many people were so confident in Geno and then BAM Sephiroth anf then BAM Mii Costume. Sephiroth was barely considered. Yet he got in.
Fair enough.

It sounds like you want a genuine revaluation of charactes as opposed to just... "I'm bored, let's talk about unlikely characters."

I can respect and support that notion.
 
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Curious Villager

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Considering how popular her outfit from it is, I'd personally expect a chunk of Alpha content.


Also I just realized that out of that Square Seven list, Crono's the only one who we know nothing about, Luminary, Erdrick and Sephiroth became playable, Slime was considered, Geno got a Spirit and a costume and reliable sources say they tried to get Sora but failed to secure the rights. That's interesting to me
I suppose closest thing to any acknowledgement for Crono was that time Sakurai retweeted a custom stage based off his game a little while back...
 
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Swamp Sensei

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Sorry for yelling. I'm just happy to see someone else thinks it's likely.
Before Heihachi I would have said Tekken was the most likely series to be included aside from Tales but..

Looking back on interviews, it seems Sakurai is still stumped at translating Tekken combat into Smash.

Perhaps its younger brother would be easier to translate.
 
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