I find it somewhat strange that we are still having discussions about spirit promotions.
In the first Fighter's Pass, the idea that we may not get spirit upgrades made a lot more sense. Not only was there a reasonable degree of precedent behind it, but (more importantly) there was some logic behind this theory. Both the spirit list and the first Fighter's Pass were decided during the base game's development, so Sakurai had the time to ensure there would be no overlap between the base game spirits and any DLC characters or spirits.
As of the second Fighter's Pass, however, that explanation really doesn't hold water anymore. Assuming that the second Fighter's Pass was decided about half a year after the base game in June 2019, as Banjo's negotiations began in June 2018, then Sakurai couldn't have ensured there would be no overlap between the base spirit list and any characters/spirits in the second Fighter's Pass unless he deliberately went out of his way to not include reject any base game spirit from the second Fighter's Pass for one reason or another...
...which he clearly isn't holding himself to, as is evident by Min Min. If the idea of spirit upgrades really bothered Sakurai so much as to outweigh the benefits of adding an ARMS fighter and, later, Min Min, then we simply wouldn't have seen this happen. And this is the key to the entire debate, in my opinion. No one is really discussing spirit promotions for the sake of spirit promotions, but instead in the context of a handful of candidates who have a lot of things going for them but are spirits, such as Geno, Rayman, or Bandana Waddle Dee. By addressing that, no, spirits really don't seem to have any substantial impact on a character's outcome, the dynamics around these characters change. That's not to say any spirit promotion is inevitable or doesn't have factors that may make them less likely, but it no longer makes sense to fixate on that element of a character's inclusion. It's like saying "I wouldn't say Dante is likely because Capcom already has a playable character on the roster", it's a critique that no longer makes sense given what we've seen.
If I can be honest, and I mean absolutely no disrespect here, but it really feels like any attempts to keep the spirit debate alive are mostly done by people who are engaging in wishful thinking, where the absence of spirit promotions would either eliminate competition that is facing the characters they personally want or would shape the roster into their idea of what Smash Bros DLC "should" be.
