Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Michael the Spikester]

I want 2B but unless we get Post-Season 2 individual DLC or a 3rd pass I don't think she's happening at this point.

Predicting she'll be a Mii tomorrow given the statement between Sakurai and her creator.

 

[I.D.]

"Spirits were in base game, so I doubt they're in Pass 1 since Pass 1 was probably chosen with them in mind." This is observable precedent, since it also comes with the point that relates to AT's, as we never saw an AT get promoted in 4. The same logic is being used here to doubt it.

No, that's most certainly not observable precedent. That's an observation rooted in logic, supported by quotes from Sakurai and the way they structured the fighter's pass. It's an example of GOOD speculation.
What is precedent is saying, "well we haven't had any spirits in pass 1 so we'll never get them", something that a lot of people followed to the bitter end until Min Min's reveal, ignoring the circumstances behind ARMS, the way they presented the ARMS reveal, the timing of when pass 2 was decided and so on and so forth. And for some reason people get mad when stuff like that is called out.
"We are not going to get a unique third party character from the same series" is something that I saw a lot. Is that a rule or precedent? After all it's rooted in something, that yes, had never actually happened before. But either way it ended up not mattering.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

No, that's most certainly not observable precedent. That's an observation rooted in logic, supported by quotes from Sakurai and the way they structured the fighter's pass. It's an example of GOOD speculation.
What is precedent is saying, "well we haven't had any spirits in pass 1 so we'll never get them", something that a lot of people followed to the bitter end until Min Min's reveal, ignoring the circumstances behind ARMS, the way they presented the ARMS reveal, the timing of when pass 2 was decided and so on and so forth. And for some reason people get mad when stuff like that is called out.
"We are not going to get a unique third party character from the same series" is something that I saw a lot. Is that a rule or precedent? After all it's rooted in something, that yes, had never actually happened before. But either way it ended up not mattering.

Observable precedent is literally "observing something that creates a precedent". It's exactly what you just said.

The last thing you stated is most certainly a fan rule. It's entirely about the wording. And no, it's not rooted in logic either. If it makes a hard rule based upon it, it's a fan rule. If it speaks on "I don't think this'll happen", it's not a fan rule. Fan rules are literally trying to state facts based upon stuff you've seen. Observable Precedent is an opinion of the situation.

They are absolutely different. Tons of people state things as facts that were never actually the case, trying to shut down discussion hard. Whereas others disagree in a reasonable manner using their opinion of a situation. It's not really this complicated, to be honest.

Precedent in itself is definitely not a fact, because it's being used strictly for the purpose of creating some kind of "factual rule"(which is what makes it a fan rule) instead of actually acknowledging that it's not a rule but an understandable opinion of the situation. People thinking Spirits won't happen in Pass 1 were using Observable Precedent as an opinion. There were those stating it as a fact as well, but that case would it being an actual Fan Rule.

It's getting hard to explain at this point. If I can't really make it clear how one is an opinion and one is not an actual fact but is stated as one, that it's best to leave off cause I can't explain it any better.

Though worth noting that "Base game spirits won't be playable" is a fact... but solely in hindsight too. Which is why it was always a bad argument to make or bring up. There was no way to confirm it was a fact till literally after it became one. Which is one of the most poor arguments one can make. Hindsight is always fallacious.

 

[kirbsmash]

I guess Cloud counts in a way? No but seriously, who? Lol because I'm wracking my brain and coming up blanks.

Ryu, Ken, terry, wii fit trainer, simon, richter. II'm counting Ganondorf too. Almost forgot Snake. Also captain falcon oh god me, how can you forgot him?

 

[Lionfranky]

So, what are the characters that don't have their games on Nintendo platform, but have their contents in Smash? Persona 3 and 4 comes to mind iirc.

 

[MooMew64]

No, that's most certainly not observable precedent. That's an observation rooted in logic, supported by quotes from Sakurai and the way they structured the fighter's pass. It's an example of GOOD speculation.
What is precedent is saying, "well we haven't had any spirits in pass 1 so we'll never get them", something that a lot of people followed to the bitter end until Min Min's reveal, ignoring the circumstances behind ARMS, the way they presented the ARMS reveal, the timing of when pass 2 was decided and so on and so forth. And for some reason people get mad when stuff like that is called out.
"We are not going to get a unique third party character from the same series" is something that I saw a lot. Is that a rule or precedent? After all it's rooted in something, that yes, had never actually happened before. But either way it ended up not mattering.

A lot of speculation ends up not mattering in the end because let's face it, none of us know 100% what's going to happen. There is no sure-fire way to predict who makes it in to Smash, and there never will be outside of leaks.

Precedents and patterns are used as a way to try and form actual discussion around these things. I've said it many times in the past, but without these precedent and pattern talk, we'd just be a wishlist thread listing off our most wanteds over and over again, and IMO that doesn't really make for engaging speculation.

No one has ever enforced or called these things rules other than people who get upset at them. I myself constantly admit that yeah, precedents can break. I was one of the first to say Sephiroth broke a lot of patterns once he got revealed. However, part of speculation and forming theories around it, to me, is assuming the arguments that you use for your theories are based on things that have actually happened and are probably not going to break. There's the acknowledgment that they can, but if you just assume every precedent you use is a fallacy anyway, what's even the point of speculation? These things give us structure.

 

[Kokiden]

Ryu, Ken, terry, wii fit trainer, simon, richter. II'm counting Ganondorf too. Almost forgot Snake. Also captain falcon oh god me, how can you forgot him?

... in my defence it's 1:43am right now, so I'm tired xD

But sheesh I can't believe I drew a blank and didn't even think of the guys you mentioned... Alright... time for bed lol.

 

[I.D.]

Precedents and patterns are used as a way to try and form actual discussion around these things. I've said it many times in the past, but without these precedent and pattern talk, we'd just be a wishlist thread listing off our most wanteds over and over again, and IMO that doesn't really make for engaging speculation.

Absolutely not and this ties back into what I said about people who try to force the speculation = patterns narrative. When Terry Bogard stans argued in favor of their character before he was announced do you actually think they were are arguing from a place of patterns? Of course not, because how could they? They pointed stuff that was favorable to to him, his status as a company mascot, SNK's relationship with Nintendo, being crossover friendly, etc. What sort of arguments did they usually get in return for their actually well thought ideas? "Too obscure", "Nintendo has never gone for such a small third party before", etc. Again, these posts are publically available for everyone to see, you can just go read yourself what the RTC thread had to say about Terry as a quick example. And yet who was right in the end?

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

GoodGrief741 I wanted to make sure I responded to your response to my post last night, because you took the time to write something out. If there’s something I miss here, please let me know. Forgive me for not quoting!

I see your point in terms of picks like Sephiroth or Min Min “putting picks back on the table“ in terms of speculation. Picks that previously may not have been given the time of day by many people may be more commonly discussed.

That said, in terms of actual implications, I’m not sure we can say it changes much until we see the characters themselves get in. That’s mainly what my point is with circumstances surrounding the business decisions here. Certainly, Sephiroth is a non-protagonist who was added as DLC. But there are potential extremely specific circumstances that led to him being a playable character, whereas he may not have been otherwise. Those same circumstances, being specific, wouldn’t make Sephiroth a great example that would lead to other character additions like him. That’s more what I was getting at.

If (and I will emphasize this, because I obviously don’t have hard evidence) Sephiroth got in because of those specific circumstances (and the fact that he’s among the most iconic gaming villains out there) I don’t think it helps another non-protagonist as much as it is implied to in the grand scheme of things. I agree with you that it will allow certain characters to be taken more seriously! I just don’t know that I agree that it will make an impact in the decision-making process, and that’s mainly because I think the timing of it all is more important.

Then again, and correct me if I’m wrong, I’m not entirely sure that that’s exactly what you’re saying either. The concept, in general, of saying who benefits from what behind closed doors is also difficult to prove aside from piecing things together. More specifically, it seems as though your point was closer to the fact that certain picks have a chance to be talked about overall, which I would agree with, and this comes on the heels of some characters simply being overlooked by the overall community.

Overall, I think my point comes close to this: There have been some instances where “rules” (ew) get broken, but that specific “rule” break doesn’t get repeated. That honestly is where my skepticism is at. Sure, Min Min was a spirit upgrade and Sephiroth was a non-protagonist. But will that repeat? With 3 picks left, I’m kinda doubtful of it, though I could totally be wrong. Let’s be clear- one character could do both at the same time!

I hope I made that clear. We’re probably still in disagreement but that’s fine. I figured I’d give a response though.

 

[Deleted member]

Absolutely not and this ties back into what I said about people who try to force the speculation = patterns narrative. When Terry Bogard stans argued in favor of their character before he was announced do you actually think they were are arguing from a place of patterns? Of course not, because how could they? They pointed stuff that was favorable to to him, his status as a company mascot, SNK's relationship with Nintendo, being crossover friendly, etc. What sort of arguments did they usually get in return for their actually well thought ideas? "Too obscure", "Nintendo has never gone for such a small third party before", etc. Again, these posts are publically available for everyone to see, you can just go read yourself what the RTC thread had to say about Terry as a quick example. And yet who was right in the end?

I mean you are correct about how Smash fans are constantly wrong about things. Like ignoring leaks (Hero, Banjo-Kazooie, Terry right before his reveal), when did most Smash fans ever predict a character during speculation? Our rules honestly tend to fall apart a lot.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Absolutely not and this ties back into what I said about people who try to force the speculation = patterns narrative. When Terry Bogard stans argued in favor of their character before he was announced do you actually think they were are arguing from a place of patterns? Of course not, because how could they? They pointed stuff that was favorable to to him, his status as a company mascot, SNK's relationship with Nintendo, being crossover friendly, etc. What sort of arguments did they usually get in return for their actually well thought ideas? "Too obscure", "Nintendo has never gone for such a small third party before", etc. Again, these posts are publically available for everyone to see, you can just go read yourself what the RTC thread had to say about Terry as a quick example. And yet who was right in the end?

Those aren’t rules.

That’s literally speculation from an opposing point of view. They were wrong, and thats that.

I don’t think anybody cares all that much about being right or wrong anyway. I care more about getting the characters in the game. Was I wrong about stuff leading up to Sephiroth? Yes. Am I mad I was wrong? **** no, I get to play as Sephiroth, a dream pick I never thought would happen.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

GoodGrief741 I wanted to make sure I responded to your response to my post last night, because you took the time to write something out. If there’s something I miss here, please let me know. Forgive me for not quoting!

I see your point in terms of picks like Sephiroth or Min Min “putting picks back on the table“ in terms of speculation. Picks that previously may not have been given the time of day by many people may be more commonly discussed.

That said, in terms of actual implications, I’m not sure we can say it changes much until we see the characters themselves get in. That’s mainly what my point is with circumstances surrounding the business decisions here. Certainly, Sephiroth is a non-protagonist who was added as DLC. But there are potential extremely specific circumstances that led to him being a playable character, whereas he may not have been otherwise. Those same circumstances, being specific, wouldn’t make Sephiroth a great example that would lead to other character additions like him. That’s more what I was getting at.

If (and I will emphasize this, because I obviously don’t have hard evidence) Sephiroth got in because of those specific circumstances (and the fact that he’s among the most iconic gaming villains out there) I don’t think it helps another non-protagonist as much as it is implied to in the grand scheme of things. I agree with you that it will allow certain characters to be taken more seriously! I just don’t know that I agree that it will make an impact in the decision-making process, and that’s mainly because I think the timing of it all is more important.

Then again, and correct me if I’m wrong, I’m not entirely sure that that’s exactly what you’re saying either. The concept, in general, of saying who benefits from what behind closed doors is also difficult to prove aside from piecing things together. More specifically, it seems as though your point was closer to the fact that certain picks have a chance to be talked about overall, which I would agree with, and this comes on the heels of some characters simply being overlooked by the overall community.

Overall, I think my point comes close to this: There have been some instances where “rules” (ew) get broken, but that specific “rule” break doesn’t get repeated. That honestly is where my skepticism is at. Sure, Min Min was a spirit upgrade and Sephiroth was a non-protagonist. But will that repeat? With 3 picks left, I’m kinda doubtful of it, though I could totally be wrong. Let’s be clear- one character could do both at the same time!

I hope I made that clear. We’re probably still in disagreement but that’s fine. I figured I’d give a response though.

One thing to note is this; Sephiroth is the second FFVII character. He didn't come in to first represent the series. So while him being unique is some kind of pattern being broken for a second 3rd party, him not being a protagonist really doesn't matter. Unless you're talking about a different pattern(whereas series got two heroic characters before a villain, which does make this stand out, yeah) then "1st representative".

I do agree, though. Sephiroth is a fairly unique situation. He's one of the most logical secondary characters for Final Fantasy VII in general, and whereas a lot of series easily have two playable characters in general who stand out just as much as a villain, nobody in FFVII stands out nearly as much as Cloud and Sephiroth. Besides that, one can also point to Dissidia where generally the hero and villain got chosen to be playable. This makes FF in general a lot different from how Smash tends to do things. So you could also look at that as making FFVII a bit of an exception to the pattern.

That's part of why I don't look at Eggman as being the obvious second Sonic character. He easily could be chosen too. But so could Tails, Shadow, or Knuckles. And so on. You can look at a lot of series. But yeah, patterns clearly do repeat often(hence the word being used), but sometimes they get changed up. That doesn't mean it'll happen constantly, you know? Which is something people don't really look at. Sephiroth doesn't really set a precedent in itself. What he really says is "patterns aren't the end-be-all" instead. Incidentally, in this example, I always have supported Shadow the most. The fact he partially started off as a villain/hero combo is a coincidence, funnily enough.

(...When the hell did funnily become a legitimate word?)

 

[Deleted member]

I have seen a lot of people throwing personal attacks at others over speculation, and like, why?

I'm not saying speculation is wrong. Don't bend my words in the wrong way please. But yelling at others over speculation? This speculation being who gets in a fighting/party game made for children? Come on...

There are a lot better things to get mad at.

For crying out loud, without leaks, we are wrong like 95% of the time, especially within Ultimate DLC speculation.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

To me there's real value in the discussion and back and forth about who might and might not get in, even if most of us are wrong. If anything seeing what Nintendo/Sakurai went with as opposed to what was often suspected allows even further talk about why certain things happen and genuinely bringing an examination of how people believe in certain things over others.

Obviously the destination is always what the new fighters will be, but the journey to that is at least half the fun; especially so when there are quasi-patterns and tendencies for people to compare and contrast with. I greatly enjoyed the talk in the late summer/early fall about when Nintendo would roll out news and how various real life events and scheduling would affect things.

 

[Deleted member]

I will say that most fan rules are dumb.

The only three solid fan rules that I can think of are that no characters that have event spirits can be DLC, characters who are were Mii Costumes in this DLC cannot be a full DLC fighter, and no Assist Trophies can be DLC. However, considering the nature of character choices, these rules could shatter right in front of our eyes.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I don't expect any assist promotions but the only true rule there is characters having to originate from a video game.

Sakurai even stated so, that's the one that's truly 100% deconfirmed.

 

[CapitaineCrash]

So, what are the characters that don't have their games on Nintendo platform, but have their contents in Smash? Persona 3 and 4 comes to mind iirc.

Metal gear solid Peace walker, Metal gear solid portable ops and Metal gear solid 4: guns of the patriots all have music and never released on Nintendo platforms (they're all Playstation exclsuives). There's also Fire emblem heroes and Minecraft earth who are mobile games.

 

[MarioRaccoon]

Chrono mii costume with a spirit even next week.

Or the return of Chocobo hat with a generic Final Fantasy spirit event.

 

[Aerospherology]

Metal gear solid Peace walker, Metal gear solid portable ops and Metal gear solid 4: guns of the patriots all have music and never released on Nintendo platforms (they're all Playstation exclsuives). There's also Fire emblem heroes and Minecraft earth who are mobile games.

Imagine if Pokémon Go music gets in with a Pokémon DLC fighter

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

They would never do this given the likely expense, but I would get a kick out of non-video game characters being allowed as assist trophies. Activating the likes of Spider-Man or one of the Ninja Turtles to attack foes in a battle would be really fun.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

They would never do this given the likely expense, but I would get a kick out of non-video game characters being allowed as assist trophies. Activating the likes of Spider-Man or one of the Ninja Turtles to attack foes in a battle would be really fun.

You're making the Power Ranger fan in me have ideas. XD

...Also, Godzilla would be a kickass AT. Very fitting too. Speaking of, I wonder how many Godzilla playable mods are out there? I mean, obviously he's not the same as the three playable draconic creatures(Bowser/Charizard/Ridley), but they are the only logical base to start off with. At the very least we have Giant DK VS Giant Bowser to enact a similar idea, and I don't mean just as an Event Match.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

You're making the Power Ranger fan in me have ideas. XD

...Also, Godzilla would be a kickass AT. Very fitting too. Speaking of, I wonder how many Godzilla playable mods are out there? I mean, obviously he's not the same as the three playable draconic creatures(Bowser/Charizard/Ridley), but they are the only logical base to start off with. At the very least we have Giant DK VS Giant Bowser to enact a similar idea, and I don't mean just as an Event Match.

Now that.

That's the definition of "Too big".

 

[Momotsuki]

Why is this person - they know who they are - so combative literally all of the time? Anyway... if we can get away with Dracula, surely we can find some kaiju incarnation from a video game and call it day, right...? I kid, I kid.

 

[Deleted member]

Godzilla boss fight in Smash 69 after everyone’s favorite giant lizard monster enters the public domain

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Why is this person - they know who they are - so combative literally all of time? Anyway... if we can get away with Dracula, surely we can find some kaiju incarnation from a video game and call it day, right...? I kid, I kid.

Big difference.

That's the Castlevania Dracula. A version/incarnation based on the source character from the novel, that's different.

Incarnations/versions of public domain characters from video game franchises are allowed, the closest we'll ever get to non-gaming characters in Smash.

 

[Momotsuki]

Big difference.

That's the Castlevania Dracula. A version/incarnation based on the source character from the novel, that's different.

Incarnations/versions of public domain characters from video game franchises are allowed, the closest we'll ever get to non-gaming characters in Smash.

Very true! I should have paid a tad more attention, I do suppose. All waters aside, here is an image of Godzilla ballin'.

Spoiler: Godzilla ballin'

 

[Speed Weed]

Another case of non-video game entities appearing in Smash by technicality that I don't see mentioned as often is that Dr. Kawashima is actually based on a real-life neuroscientist

which means we can get tony hawk bois let's ****ing GOOOOOOOOOOOO

 

[Garteam]

I find it somewhat strange that we are still having discussions about spirit promotions.

In the first Fighter's Pass, the idea that we may not get spirit upgrades made a lot more sense. Not only was there a reasonable degree of precedent behind it, but (more importantly) there was some logic behind this theory. Both the spirit list and the first Fighter's Pass were decided during the base game's development, so Sakurai had the time to ensure there would be no overlap between the base game spirits and any DLC characters or spirits.

As of the second Fighter's Pass, however, that explanation really doesn't hold water anymore. Assuming that the second Fighter's Pass was decided about half a year after the base game in June 2019, as Banjo's negotiations began in June 2018, then Sakurai couldn't have ensured there would be no overlap between the base spirit list and any characters/spirits in the second Fighter's Pass unless he deliberately went out of his way to not include reject any base game spirit from the second Fighter's Pass for one reason or another...

...which he clearly isn't holding himself to, as is evident by Min Min. If the idea of spirit upgrades really bothered Sakurai so much as to outweigh the benefits of adding an ARMS fighter and, later, Min Min, then we simply wouldn't have seen this happen. And this is the key to the entire debate, in my opinion. No one is really discussing spirit promotions for the sake of spirit promotions, but instead in the context of a handful of candidates who have a lot of things going for them but are spirits, such as Geno, Rayman, or Bandana Waddle Dee. By addressing that, no, spirits really don't seem to have any substantial impact on a character's outcome, the dynamics around these characters change. That's not to say any spirit promotion is inevitable or doesn't have factors that may make them less likely, but it no longer makes sense to fixate on that element of a character's inclusion. It's like saying "I wouldn't say Dante is likely because Capcom already has a playable character on the roster", it's a critique that no longer makes sense given what we've seen.

If I can be honest, and I mean absolutely no disrespect here, but it really feels like any attempts to keep the spirit debate alive are mostly done by people who are engaging in wishful thinking, where the absence of spirit promotions would either eliminate competition that is facing the characters they personally want or would shape the roster into their idea of what Smash Bros DLC "should" be.

 

[Momotsuki]

Another case of non-video game entities appearing in Smash by technicality that I don't see mentioned as often is that Dr. Kawashima is actually based on a real-life neuroscientist

which means we can get tony hawk bois let's ****ing GOOOOOOOOOOOO

You mean Tony Hawk is a person who actually exists? I thought he was a collective false memory, a phantom we all share.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Though we have 3 shots left, a part of me is starting to think if Min Min was an exception for a "Spirit Promotion" given her inclusion was under the request of Yabuki.

 

[Momotsuki]

I don't think there will be any more spirit promotions in this pass - but it's not off the table like it once felt. Are we counting the boss spirits obtained in WoL? If so, I think we will see one more, after this pass - but I've prattled on about that a couple of times already.

 

[Speed Weed]

Though we have 3 shots left, a part of me is starting to think if Min Min was an exception for a "Spirit Promotion" given her inclusion was under the request of Yabuki.

This thread has made it so that hearing the word "exception" at all activates my fight-or-flight response

 

[Guynamednelson]

Another case of non-video game entities appearing in Smash by technicality that I don't see mentioned as often is that Dr. Kawashima is actually based on a real-life neuroscientist

which means we can get tony hawk bois let's ****ing GOOOOOOOOOOOO

The way he's allowed to be in Smash is by using the polygonal floating head from Brain Age.

Which obviously means that PS1 Tony Hawk is confirmed.

 

[TheCJBrine]

I think bringing up “they’re already a spirit” is pointless; the spirit likely has no bearing on the chances of the character, as evidenced by Min Min. Yes, the ARMS creator asked for her, but if spirits were that big a deal, they could’ve went for a different character, plus Ninjara got a mii costume.

Not to mention Bomberman also kinda got upgraded from an AT to an identical-looking mii costume.

So, I think a character having a spirit or AT or whatever already should just be outright ignored, and instead other factors should be looked at. It is apparent that Sakurai and Nintendo do not care when it comes to DLC; if they want to upgrade a character they gave a different role to a couple of years ago, they will.

 

[TheBeastHimself]

Here's my fan rule: Lucas, as of 12/16/20, shall never be removed from future entries of the Super Smash Bros. series.

 

[Momotsuki]

So, I think a character having a spirit or AT or whatever already should just be outright ignored, and instead other factors should be looked at.

Y'know, while I'm aware there's no precedent, I'm not sure how an Assist Trophy upgrade is so difficult to reconcile. Have it so that the character can never come out of the Assist Trophy while their fighter counterpart is in play, and disable summoning that Assist in training mode under the same circumstances. I don't really think an AT upgrade is gonna happen this pass - again, no precedent, but - if for whatever reason those upstairs really wanted any given fighter, I doubt an AT would stop them.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

I thonk anyone expecting a 2nd character to be shown tomorrow is tricking themselves

 

[Dinoman96]

I think it's safe to say that the vast majority of characters that are spirits and ATs probably wouldn't really be DLC for this game anyways.

I guess one could make cases for Zero and Alucard after Sephiroth's reveal, but really, Final Fantasy (Especially FF7) is far more popular than both Mega Man or Castlevania combined, and also has a complete lack of content in the base game (whereas MM/Castlevania have already been given the red carpet treatment), so it's not that hard to see why Sephiroth got in before they did.

 

[venomthebest]

I don't know If anyone else noticed this but with the next wave of amibos coming out on march 26th, you know what else releases on march 26? Monster hunter rise!

 

[SharkLord]

We're probably going to be wrong by using past precedent, but if we don't we're gonna see unironic Fighter's Passes with Morshu, Cirno, and Big the Cat, and that's even further off the mark. And honestly, who cares; If we knew the answers, we wouldn't be speculating in the first place. I like pinging ideas off each other and learning about new series. Plus, if we don't know who's coming next, the shock factor's just gonna be even bigger.