Here's the thing though: there's no reason to be skeptical of it happening again. There's no reason why it wouldn't, beyond the statistical improbability that any given character out of the thousands of candidates gets into one of three spots. Can you be doubtful that, say, Eggman will get in? Sure! But now we have concrete proof that there's nothing that puts him in a different category than, say, Monster Hunter. If you're naturally a skeptic that's fine, but if you're only going to be skeptical towards this "new" batch of potential candidates, it comes off as being resistant to change.
At the end of the day, everyone's trying to guess who the next characters could be. And many of the fighters are characters that people have outright dismissed for reasons that, in my eye, were unnecessary. It really doesn't hurt to consider more characters than usual; the wider the net cast and all that.
But what I'm aiming at isn't just that the community should look at characters that were previously seen as disconfirmed (like Spirits) and give them a second analysis - that's only part of it. I also think that people should look at what similar prejudices we hold now, and if they don't hold up to logic, then cast them aside before we get blindsided again.
But why wasn't Sephiroth heavily considered beforehand? Every one of the circumstances you mention were well known to us long before his reveal, and yet nobody gave him the time of day. Why is that? Well, it's because few thought a second Final Fantasy fighter could happen, given precedent. That's it. That's all it took for a character of Sephiroth's caliber to be completely ignored in speculation. Doesn't that seem incredibly myopic to you?
It's true; Sephiroth being in Smash in no way points to other characters like him getting in. But it does point to many possibilities that were being ignored. What reason is there to continue to ignore them now that there's no excuse?
From a practical standpoint, I fail to see what's the difference between Sephiroth and Eggman. Unless you get into the minutiae of sales numbers, they share most of their pros and cons.
On the Bandana Dee side, like you say, it's not 1 to 1. But I think the point that people are making about him (that I agree with) is that he had great chances before Sephiroth, but now people are actually forced to confront them. Bandana Dee and Sephiroth are incomparable characters in every sense, except for one: that they're side characters in franchises that already had fighters. And despite their many differences they were seen as unlikely for the one common trait they shared. Now that said trait is no longer cause for disconfirmation, people should have to actually look at his other merits, and since said merits are all very good, hopefully it would mean he's taken seriously as a candidate.
Of course, this doesn't preclude that someone give a fair look at Dee's accolades and still think that he's unlikely. But if it leads to an actual in-depth discussion instead of a brief "I doubt he'll get in, he's a Spirit" or "I doubt he'll get in, new worlds", I see that as a win.
tl;dr people boil down characters to categories based on one single aspect of them, and that's no bueno
You make good points here. I agree a “wider net” is good for discussion, and once again agree that plenty of characters now have a chance to part of a larger discussion.
While I would also agree (as I have said before) that nothing is impossible when it comes to Smash, I must say that I’m skeptical of certain things happening again, or lightning striking twice. I wouldn’t personally call it stubbornness on my part, I’m just legitimately skeptical of the same thing happening twice here.
In terms of reasoning holding characters back or not, I think it would be wise for the community as a whole to look at what’s in front of us, really. While certainly one could argue that BWD has “strong“ chances, I think it would behoove us to look at what “strong” means, and what it might take for said character to be an additional upgrade.
I think our points can really be converged, rather than one over the other. While conversation as a wider net is encouraged (and I think should always have been) it’s good to remain skeptical of things and cognizant of goings-on. Certainly, if the point of view is that Sephiroth was previously overlooked because of fan expectations, then on the speculation side of things, that could certainly bring other picks into the limelight.
I’m still stuck in the business side of things. We knew that Cloud was a tough pick to retain, but we didn’t know the consequences of all of it. If it’s true that Sephiroth was the negotiating piece, that gives more context
specifically to Sephiroth. This same situation, considering Sonic was likely not difficult to retain, does not apply to Eggman. Ergo, Sephiroth, while an example of somebody who was overlooked by fans, does not directly impact Eggman in terms of the business side of things, despite the fact that fans may take him more seriously in speculating. However, this particular case is in response to the “villains” argument, that Sephiroth being added suggests more villains are coming. This viewpoint, one you didn’t suggest, is one that I believe is a bit off the mark to begin with.
Overall I find it difficult to give any character a rating of “strong” chances. With Byleth and Min Min, our key 1st parties, they had their reasons for being added. One was a special request, one being added from “a game folks were playing” at the time. Neither of those gives a consistent look at how/why the selections were made without more context. In terms of “strong” chances, Min Min wasn’t considered “strong” for upgrade material until it turned out to be ARMS. Few expected Byleth. Very few thought Terry, Joker, or Sephiroth had “strong” chances. Crash and Dante seem like “strong” candidates, as do Hayabusa or Rex. So far that hasn’t held true, and with 3 spots left at least one of them (I expect more than 1) will not be making it into the game as playable.
In that sense, it’s a Catch 22. We basically have to throw out everything and start over if it’s coming down to who/what has “strong chances”. It really do be like that sometimes.
Now that I’ve typed a master’s thesis, I’ll end mine with this. Overall, I am in agreement. It’s good that this casts a wider net. With those same discussions, however, I think there is space for skepticism within each discussion to be heard. That, and that there may be similarities between picks, it comes down to those similarities being impactful and purposeful enough for those characters.
Good chat!