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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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Swamp Sensei

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Sakurai gets to lambast the bad taste of others because he has good taste. Anyone with good taste has this privilege, such as myself. I don't make the rules.
I concur.

This is why Lloyd Irving is the best thing to ever exist.

It's just science.
 

Polan

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Sakurai gets to lambast the bad taste of others because he has good taste. Anyone with good taste has this privilege, such as myself. I don't make the rules.
of course, this is only applicable as long as you like what i like. if you like something i don't like then this privilege is forever revoked and you are banished to the bad taste prison
 

GoodGrief741

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Overall, I think my point comes close to this: There have been some instances where “rules” (ew) get broken, but that specific “rule” break doesn’t get repeated. That honestly is where my skepticism is at. Sure, Min Min was a spirit upgrade and Sephiroth was a non-protagonist. But will that repeat? With 3 picks left, I’m kinda doubtful of it, though I could totally be wrong. Let’s be clear- one character could do both at the same time!
Here's the thing though: there's no reason to be skeptical of it happening again. There's no reason why it wouldn't, beyond the statistical improbability that any given character out of the thousands of candidates gets into one of three spots. Can you be doubtful that, say, Eggman will get in? Sure! But now we have concrete proof that there's nothing that puts him in a different category than, say, Monster Hunter. If you're naturally a skeptic that's fine, but if you're only going to be skeptical towards this "new" batch of potential candidates, it comes off as being resistant to change.

At the end of the day, everyone's trying to guess who the next characters could be. And many of the fighters are characters that people have outright dismissed for reasons that, in my eye, were unnecessary. It really doesn't hurt to consider more characters than usual; the wider the net cast and all that.

But what I'm aiming at isn't just that the community should look at characters that were previously seen as disconfirmed (like Spirits) and give them a second analysis - that's only part of it. I also think that people should look at what similar prejudices we hold now, and if they don't hold up to logic, then cast them aside before we get blindsided again.
If (and I will emphasize this, because I obviously don’t have hard evidence) Sephiroth got in because of those specific circumstances (and the fact that he’s among the most iconic gaming villains out there) I don’t think it helps another non-protagonist as much as it is implied to in the grand scheme of things.
But why wasn't Sephiroth heavily considered beforehand? Every one of the circumstances you mention were well known to us long before his reveal, and yet nobody gave him the time of day. Why is that? Well, it's because few thought a second Final Fantasy fighter could happen, given precedent. That's it. That's all it took for a character of Sephiroth's caliber to be completely ignored in speculation. Doesn't that seem incredibly myopic to you?

It's true; Sephiroth being in Smash in no way points to other characters like him getting in. But it does point to many possibilities that were being ignored. What reason is there to continue to ignore them now that there's no excuse?
To be fair, I think saying Sephiroth helps Bandanna Dee...well, look. It’s not that I think it’s incorrect, it’s just things it’s hard to really determine that.

I believe it’s known that I don’t care much for BWD as a Smash pick (that doesn’t mean he’s objectively a bad pick, just not my cup of tea!), so if you think it’s just me being biased then that’s fine, but comparing him as a side character to...Sephiroth?

Sephiroth is waaaaaaay more than just a side character. He’s among the most iconic characters in the industry, especially so with villains.

We don’t need 1:1 comparisons for everything, don’t get me wrong. On the basis of “not the protagonist” then yeah that could work. But I always come back to, if the reasoning for Sephiroth getting into Smash are reasons that wouldn’t apply to BWD, in what way does Sephiroth truly help him? It’s the same thing with Eggman, in my humble opinion.

I’m just not sure that comparing supporting character/sometimes playable Bandanna Dee to Sephiroth really works, is what I mean. Thoughts?
From a practical standpoint, I fail to see what's the difference between Sephiroth and Eggman. Unless you get into the minutiae of sales numbers, they share most of their pros and cons.

On the Bandana Dee side, like you say, it's not 1 to 1. But I think the point that people are making about him (that I agree with) is that he had great chances before Sephiroth, but now people are actually forced to confront them. Bandana Dee and Sephiroth are incomparable characters in every sense, except for one: that they're side characters in franchises that already had fighters. And despite their many differences they were seen as unlikely for the one common trait they shared. Now that said trait is no longer cause for disconfirmation, people should have to actually look at his other merits, and since said merits are all very good, hopefully it would mean he's taken seriously as a candidate.

Of course, this doesn't preclude that someone give a fair look at Dee's accolades and still think that he's unlikely. But if it leads to an actual in-depth discussion instead of a brief "I doubt he'll get in, he's a Spirit" or "I doubt he'll get in, new worlds", I see that as a win.

tl;dr people boil down characters to categories based on one single aspect of them, and that's no bueno
 

SharkLord

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No it's going to be Kirito :4pacman:

(My theory is: we have seen 3 characters so far, a Red haired dude, this black haired dude and a girl I think they will all share the main character role.)
I think the news sources that have reported on it confirmed that we'll be having a three-protagonists situation. Still, if we still have Rean as one of the protagonists...
 
D

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Just going to add that the main difference between Sephiroth & Eggman, at least in my eyes, is that Square is more stingy than Sega in regards to Smash. Normally this would be a bad thing, but in Sephiroth's case it may have helped if the rumors of Cloud and other FF content were being held hostage by Square in exchange for the one winged angel. If those rumors are bunk though? Then I don't see much of a difference in their situations with hindsight.
 

Wunderwaft

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If Rean actually the protagonist of Kuro no Kiseki, I'd imagine he'd start getting a fair bit of attention. That'd be like a Joker+ situation, just taking over the series.
He already took over the series what with him being the protagonist of like 5 kiseki games, it would be overkill for him to be the protagonist again in the Calvard arc.

No it's going to be Kirito :4pacman:

(My theory is: we have seen 3 characters so far, a Red haired dude, this black haired dude and a girl I think they will all share the main character role.)
Good point, the three characters seem to be the main party of the Calvard arc. Kinda weird that one of them looks like Rean but we'll have to wait until we see his face as well I guess.
 

7NATOR

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So I wanted to share a Thought I had about the Fighter Pass 2 Going forward

If the Pattern about "The Best characters in the Beginning" is still a Factor for this Pass, than Min-Min is kind of weird in the Grand Scheme of things

Because this would imply that Min-Min, to Perhaps Nintendo and Sakurai, was seen as a pick that would be more Majorly Accepted than whoever some of the Next Fighters are

Min-Min isn't a Controversial Character, but she's not one that Made waves like usually the First Characters of a Speculation Cycle do. Mewtwo, Joker in their DLC Cycles made more waves than Min-Min

So I had a Thought that perhaps the Reason Nintendo might have thought to present Min-Min as the First character was because

-She Might have been seen as a Fan Request (ARMS was talked about a lot in Smash Speculation for Base game and Pre Ultimate reveal, Min-Min most popular character from ARMS)

-She Might have been a Character that appeals to Nintendo Audience as a whole

-Her being First Party made it easier to work on her first

Points 2 and 3 have some Implications

Point 2 would suggest that Among the next 3 Fighters, at least one of them does not have much Connection to Nintendo as a whole, and may not be a Juggernaut like Steve and Sephiroth in the Industry

Point 3 Would either Suggest Min-Min is out Only 1st Party Character, Or if there is a First Party Character, it is one that is more Controversial than Min-Min

There's also something to Consider that with FP2 going into 2021, we'd go through 2 E3's, so Perhaps at least one of the Next 3 Fighters will be big-ish Character.

Then Again, Min-Min was this Year's E3 Character. It's weird to think about, So I wonder how you guys feel about it
 

SharkLord

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I never said I didn't want to talk about more characters. Even if I don't think they're likely, I have no qualms about discussing them. Heck, all three characters I've done writeups for are pretty far from frontrunners. This just seems like a needlessly rude potshot. If you want to talk about characters, go ahead. Nobody's stopping you. Just pitch a cool idea and happily discuss it.
 
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Mushroomguy12

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I never said I didn't want to talk about more characters. Even if I don't think they're likely, I have no qualms about discussing them. Heck, all three characters I've done writeups for are pretty far from frontrunners. This just seems like a needlessly rude potshot. If you want to talk about characters, go ahead. Nobody's stopping you. Just pitch a cool idea and happily discuss it.
T'is a joke Squidward.
 

latsmash

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So I wanted to share a Thought I had about the Fighter Pass 2 Going forward

If the Pattern about "The Best characters in the Beginning" is still a Factor for this Pass, than Min-Min is kind of weird in the Grand Scheme of things

Because this would imply that Min-Min, to Perhaps Nintendo and Sakurai, was seen as a pick that would be more Majorly Accepted than whoever some of the Next Fighters are

Min-Min isn't a Controversial Character, but she's not one that Made waves like usually the First Characters of a Speculation Cycle do. Mewtwo, Joker in their DLC Cycles made more waves than Min-Min

So I had a Thought that perhaps the Reason Nintendo might have thought to present Min-Min as the First character was because

-She Might have been seen as a Fan Request (ARMS was talked about a lot in Smash Speculation for Base game and Pre Ultimate reveal, Min-Min most popular character from ARMS)

-She Might have been a Character that appeals to Nintendo Audience as a whole

-Her being First Party made it easier to work on her first

Points 2 and 3 have some Implications

Point 2 would suggest that Among the next 3 Fighters, at least one of them does not have much Connection to Nintendo as a whole, and may not be a Juggernaut like Steve and Sephiroth in the Industry

Point 3 Would either Suggest Min-Min is out Only 1st Party Character, Or if there is a First Party Character, it is one that is more Controversial than Min-Min

There's also something to Consider that with FP2 going into 2021, we'd go through 2 E3's, so Perhaps at least one of the Next 3 Fighters will be big-ish Character.

Then Again, Min-Min was this Year's E3 Character. It's weird to think about, So I wonder how you guys feel about it
Popular consensus seems to be that Min-Min was a bonus fighter tacked onto FP2, which if true explains her unorthodox addition and nullifies her effecting the rest of the pass. I don't think her addition takes out the possibility of another first party like Isaac and Waluigi, or means that the upcoming fighters will be considered underwhelming.
 
D

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Popular consensus seems to be that Min-Min was a bonus fighter tacked onto FP2, which if true explains her unorthodox addition and nullifies her effecting the rest of the pass. I don't think her addition takes out the possibility of another first party like Isaac and Waluigi, or means that the upcoming fighters will be considered underwhelming.
I have literally never heard anything about this, much less it being popular consensus. Feels like a theory from someone who dislikes ARMs.
 

Scoliosis Jones

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Here's the thing though: there's no reason to be skeptical of it happening again. There's no reason why it wouldn't, beyond the statistical improbability that any given character out of the thousands of candidates gets into one of three spots. Can you be doubtful that, say, Eggman will get in? Sure! But now we have concrete proof that there's nothing that puts him in a different category than, say, Monster Hunter. If you're naturally a skeptic that's fine, but if you're only going to be skeptical towards this "new" batch of potential candidates, it comes off as being resistant to change.

At the end of the day, everyone's trying to guess who the next characters could be. And many of the fighters are characters that people have outright dismissed for reasons that, in my eye, were unnecessary. It really doesn't hurt to consider more characters than usual; the wider the net cast and all that.

But what I'm aiming at isn't just that the community should look at characters that were previously seen as disconfirmed (like Spirits) and give them a second analysis - that's only part of it. I also think that people should look at what similar prejudices we hold now, and if they don't hold up to logic, then cast them aside before we get blindsided again.

But why wasn't Sephiroth heavily considered beforehand? Every one of the circumstances you mention were well known to us long before his reveal, and yet nobody gave him the time of day. Why is that? Well, it's because few thought a second Final Fantasy fighter could happen, given precedent. That's it. That's all it took for a character of Sephiroth's caliber to be completely ignored in speculation. Doesn't that seem incredibly myopic to you?

It's true; Sephiroth being in Smash in no way points to other characters like him getting in. But it does point to many possibilities that were being ignored. What reason is there to continue to ignore them now that there's no excuse?

From a practical standpoint, I fail to see what's the difference between Sephiroth and Eggman. Unless you get into the minutiae of sales numbers, they share most of their pros and cons.

On the Bandana Dee side, like you say, it's not 1 to 1. But I think the point that people are making about him (that I agree with) is that he had great chances before Sephiroth, but now people are actually forced to confront them. Bandana Dee and Sephiroth are incomparable characters in every sense, except for one: that they're side characters in franchises that already had fighters. And despite their many differences they were seen as unlikely for the one common trait they shared. Now that said trait is no longer cause for disconfirmation, people should have to actually look at his other merits, and since said merits are all very good, hopefully it would mean he's taken seriously as a candidate.

Of course, this doesn't preclude that someone give a fair look at Dee's accolades and still think that he's unlikely. But if it leads to an actual in-depth discussion instead of a brief "I doubt he'll get in, he's a Spirit" or "I doubt he'll get in, new worlds", I see that as a win.

tl;dr people boil down characters to categories based on one single aspect of them, and that's no bueno
You make good points here. I agree a “wider net” is good for discussion, and once again agree that plenty of characters now have a chance to part of a larger discussion.

While I would also agree (as I have said before) that nothing is impossible when it comes to Smash, I must say that I’m skeptical of certain things happening again, or lightning striking twice. I wouldn’t personally call it stubbornness on my part, I’m just legitimately skeptical of the same thing happening twice here.

In terms of reasoning holding characters back or not, I think it would be wise for the community as a whole to look at what’s in front of us, really. While certainly one could argue that BWD has “strong“ chances, I think it would behoove us to look at what “strong” means, and what it might take for said character to be an additional upgrade.

I think our points can really be converged, rather than one over the other. While conversation as a wider net is encouraged (and I think should always have been) it’s good to remain skeptical of things and cognizant of goings-on. Certainly, if the point of view is that Sephiroth was previously overlooked because of fan expectations, then on the speculation side of things, that could certainly bring other picks into the limelight.

I’m still stuck in the business side of things. We knew that Cloud was a tough pick to retain, but we didn’t know the consequences of all of it. If it’s true that Sephiroth was the negotiating piece, that gives more context specifically to Sephiroth. This same situation, considering Sonic was likely not difficult to retain, does not apply to Eggman. Ergo, Sephiroth, while an example of somebody who was overlooked by fans, does not directly impact Eggman in terms of the business side of things, despite the fact that fans may take him more seriously in speculating. However, this particular case is in response to the “villains” argument, that Sephiroth being added suggests more villains are coming. This viewpoint, one you didn’t suggest, is one that I believe is a bit off the mark to begin with.

Overall I find it difficult to give any character a rating of “strong” chances. With Byleth and Min Min, our key 1st parties, they had their reasons for being added. One was a special request, one being added from “a game folks were playing” at the time. Neither of those gives a consistent look at how/why the selections were made without more context. In terms of “strong” chances, Min Min wasn’t considered “strong” for upgrade material until it turned out to be ARMS. Few expected Byleth. Very few thought Terry, Joker, or Sephiroth had “strong” chances. Crash and Dante seem like “strong” candidates, as do Hayabusa or Rex. So far that hasn’t held true, and with 3 spots left at least one of them (I expect more than 1) will not be making it into the game as playable.

In that sense, it’s a Catch 22. We basically have to throw out everything and start over if it’s coming down to who/what has “strong chances”. It really do be like that sometimes.

Now that I’ve typed a master’s thesis, I’ll end mine with this. Overall, I am in agreement. It’s good that this casts a wider net. With those same discussions, however, I think there is space for skepticism within each discussion to be heard. That, and that there may be similarities between picks, it comes down to those similarities being impactful and purposeful enough for those characters.

Good chat!
 

7NATOR

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Popular consensus seems to be that Min-Min was a bonus fighter tacked onto FP2, which if true explains her unorthodox addition and nullifies her effecting the rest of the pass. I don't think her addition takes out the possibility of another first party like Isaac and Waluigi, or means that the upcoming fighters will be considered underwhelming.
I mean, While I do think the Bonus fighter thing Could has some merit, I'm not sure it was Min-Min, or even that it was just one character that's considered Bonus

I've heard this consensus, but I don't think it's very widespread

In Any case, I do agree to an certain extent. There are many factors when not only considering the Characters, but also the Order. I also don't automatically think the Pass will be underwhelming. Bayonetta, While I guess controversial during her reveal, Was considered Hype character for alot of people, and she was the last character

I Just don't expect the next Characters to Be to the level of Steve or Sephiroth. I could see FP10 being that perhaps since that's another E3, but I think overall the Next 3 choices will be toned down. From a Business Standpoint, you want the Characters that You (You as in Nintendo) precieve to garner the best reaction to be near the beginning, to Secure more sales at the beginning

It's why, for example, UI Goku was revealed first before Kefla, Despite Kefla being Released first, because Namco and Arc Systems knew he'd be the most hyped character, and this goes for alot of Fighting games.

So if Min-Min is the First character like Joker was, I expect that these next overall characters will lack something that Min-Min has, whether it be Nintendo Familiarity, Smash Audiences attention, or something like that
 

latsmash

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I have literally never heard anything about this, much less it being popular consensus. Feels like a theory from someone who dislikes ARMs.
Not really fair to assume that I'm making theories because I hate Min-Min, she led a pass with six instead of five slots, and apparently the ARMS creator specifically pushed for ARMS to be included in Smash as a fighter. However you feel about Min-Min, you have to admit there was no reason to add her.
 

Cosmic77

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Trying to have a conversation about ARMS getting a character prior to March 2020 would've been near impossible just because of general assumptions and "rules" people made in this thread. Even if someone didn't believe those assumptions and genuinely thought an ARMS character had a chance, it's unlikely that many others would be convinced, and most of the responses would probably fall along the lines of, "We're probably not getting ARMS until the next game, but hey, who knows? I guess anything is possible."

Clearly the first three characters of this pass alone have broken a lot of norms. I think it's important for people to acknowledge that so we can be more open-minded and have an easier time discussing characters that normally wouldn't have been given the time of day. This isn't about, "Who was right, who was wrong?" despite what some people seem to think, and I wish more people would just let go of these "rules" and reevaluate instead of finding numerous exceptions and vehemently protecting their disproven assumptions.
 

Lamperouge

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Not really fair to assume that I'm making theories because I hate Min-Min, she led a pass with six instead of five slots, and apparently the ARMS creator specifically pushed for ARMS to be included in Smash as a fighter. However you feel about Min-Min, you have to admit there was no reason to add her.


ARMS was a successful, brand new IP from Nintendo that still had plenty of content left to add.
 

ARandomFruit

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Alright, I added 42 more characters. This is the real number.

Have fun.

Hmm. If Sonic were to get a move-set overhaul, what would his new moves be?
You choose Sonic and the game just boots up Sonic the Fighter instead.
Sonic's overhaul is everyone's overhaul as everyone gets a new move-set relating to Sonic the Fighter.
Sonic can never be in regular Smash again. Only Sonic the Fighter.
The end.
 

latsmash

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I mean, While I do think the Bonus fighter thing Could has some merit, I'm not sure it was Min-Min, or even that it was just one character that's considered Bonus

I've heard this consensus, but I don't think it's very widespread

In Any case, I do agree to an certain extent. There are many factors when not only considering the Characters, but also the Order. I also don't automatically think the Pass will be underwhelming. Bayonetta, While I guess controversial during her reveal, Was considered Hype character for alot of people, and she was the last character

I Just don't expect the next Characters to Be to the level of Steve or Sephiroth. I could see FP10 being that perhaps since that's another E3, but I think overall the Next 3 choices will be toned down. From a Business Standpoint, you want the Characters that You (You as in Nintendo) precieve to garner the best reaction to be near the beginning, to Secure more sales at the beginning

It's why, for example, UI Goku was revealed first before Kefla, Despite Kefla being Released first, because Namco and Arc Systems knew he'd be the most hyped character, and this goes for alot of Fighting games.

So if Min-Min is the First character like Joker was, I expect that these next overall characters will lack something that Min-Min has, whether it be Nintendo Familiarity, Smash Audiences attention, or something like that
Forgive me if I'm interpreting this wrong, but I really don't think Nintendo assumed Min-Min was fan requested. There's a clear difference between "speculated" and "requested", I don't think the development team would make a mistake like that. I do agree that we may be underwhelmed by who's next though, Steve and Sephiroth are big shoes to fill.
 

TheTuninator

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Not really fair to assume that I'm making theories because I hate Min-Min, she led a pass with six instead of five slots, and apparently the ARMS creator specifically pushed for ARMS to be included in Smash as a fighter. However you feel about Min-Min, you have to admit there was no reason to add her.
No first-party character needs any more reason than being from a reasonably popular first-party game or series to be added to Smash.
 

Mushroomguy12

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Squidward is used to portray those who don't like the phrase "fan rule." I'm one of the people who argued against using the term. Ergo, I'm going to feel like it's directed at me.
There are people who use that argument in a reasonable context and those that use it in an unreasonable context. If you want to place yourself in the latter category then that's on you. Even if you didn't know the context behind the episode, you could tell that Squidward isn't even being portrayed as entirely unreasonable here.

All this offense at a simple meme. I'll just point to this.
Y'know, if you take a dig at nobody in particular... and somebody goes and tries to refute whatever it was... is that not a sort of self-own on their behalf? If the shoe fits, and all that.
 
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Nekoo

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Everyone trying to put a logic and rules as of why characters get added while at the end of the day, it could be resumed in Sakurai just looking at the Character and being like "Wow, that could be cool to have it in smash."
 

latsmash

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ARMS was a successful, brand new IP from Nintendo that still had plenty of content left to add.
In a certain sense it was successful, but I'd argue not enough to warrant an addition into Smash Ultimate, much less as a DLC fighter. Like many fighting games, ARMS failed to hold on to a majority of its player base a few months after launch, only beingkept alive today by the odd tourney held by Nintendo. It failed to make a large enough splash to lead a DLC pass in Smash.
 

TheTuninator

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Everyone trying to put a logic and rules as of why characters get added while at the end of the day, it could be resumed in Sakurai just looking at the Character and being like "Wow, that could be cool to have it in smash."
Yup! It's fun to speculate, but at the end of the day, the only rule will always be that there are no rules and Big N will do whatever they want irrespective of prior precedent.
 
D

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Not really fair to assume that I'm making theories because I hate Min-Min, she led a pass with six instead of five slots, and apparently the ARMS creator specifically pushed for ARMS to be included in Smash as a fighter. However you feel about Min-Min, you have to admit there was no reason to add her.
I never said you hated ARMS though? Just whoever originated this so-called popular consensus, which probably wasn't you unless you just made it up a few minutes ago to begin with.
 
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