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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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Sc_Ev0lution

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Adding characters from games people can't even play in a pass of paid DLC feels like a horrendous business decision that would be all but guaranteed to receive criticism.
https://store.steampowered.com/search/?sort_by=Price_DESC&term=東方

https://www.nintendo.com/search/#category=all&page=1&query=touhou

Take your pick. I'd recommend Antinomy of Common Flowers, it's a fun tag team fighter. If you want one of the shooters, go for Wily Beast and Weakest Creature, it's the newest one just released last year and very beginner friendly.

Among fan games, I think Luna Nights is a fantastic Metroidvania, and it's coming to the Switch this year. Azure Reflections and Gensou Skydrift are decent as well.
 

Idon

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It appears that this one doesn't specify Fall...

Well, it appears they've caught onto amiibo theory and we're left in the dark once again regarding timeframes.
 

7NATOR

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There are only 4 Slots, but there are More than 4 Characters that Seem Likely

That's why I have to Imagine that When Nintendo Chooses the Pass, they may have one or Two strong Characters they are heavily in Favor for, Which is where Byleth and Steve would fit in terms of Categories

But I have to Imagine that the Discussion is Long, Perhaps Drawn out, and there may be Graphs that are Shown, and like I said I Imagine Sakurai has a Great pull over the Choices.

I think Sakurai might be a Big Pull around Certain Characters, and I think Joker and Terry would fall in this Category, though I also Imagine that Nintendo would have to be convinced to Pull the Trigger.

There has to be more than 5 Characters in discussion for FP1, and More than 6 characters in Discussion for FP2. I also Imagine that some characters in either passes might not have been Nintendo's First choices for a Group of 5-6 characters.

There may have been Characters considered for DLC even before smash Ultimate Released, but They weren't Prioritized for FP1, and they may not have been Prioritized for FP2.

Any Small Details associated with Characters could be an Edge in that Character's favor, and we as a Speculation Community might not even consider some aspects that important, or might consider it a Flaw, but Nintendo and/or Sakurai might consider it a Plus

Moveset uniqueness is Important. The more new ideas a Character can bring the better

Moveset Implementation is Also Important as well. That's why Nintendo even asks if Sakurai can make something work. Nintendo is Paying Sakurai and the Team so they need to know if they can make all 6 Characters at least be December of 2021

Characters need to Make Profit.

Nintendo and Sakurai probably do pay attention to Fan Demand. The Problem is that there Are MANY Characters that have Demand. It's hard to judge

The Kids on Miiverse that Wished for Steve and Sans on the Site and Ballot when People on Sites like these considered them Memes did their Job Very Well. They went to where Sakurai was confirmed to have seen it (Sakurai on Miiverse, The Ballot was the Ballot)

Sakurai and Harada Might have Deconfirmed Arle and Crash, and Sakurai might have Deconfirmed Ryu as well (as Playable Characters)

The Guy that Made the Room, Tommy Wiseau, Plays Smash and made his own Mii

It appears that this one doesn't specify Fall...

Well, it appears they've caught onto amiibo theory and we're left in the dark once again regarding timeframes.
Does this Mean Amiibo theory could live though, even if they caught on to it, Considering it's just saying 2021 in this post
 

Guynamednelson

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Well, it appears they've caught onto amiibo theory and we're left in the dark once again regarding timeframes.
Unless you're like me and stick with an eleven-months-of-development theory.
 
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7NATOR

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Unless you're like me and stick with an eleven-months-of-development theory.
Well if they still are Developing in 3's, then FP8 Should Release around December or So, Maybe Janurary if Release is Delayed due to Nintendo, or Release is delayed due to Balance issues

FP9 would be Available in April or March

FP10 would be Available in Like July- August

FP11 would be Avaliable in October-November
 

Idon

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Does this Mean Amiibo theory could live though, even if they caught on to it, Considering it's just saying 2021 in this post
It lives, sure as in it's not disproven.
The issue is that it's uhh, useless now.

Unless you think, of course, they decide to drop all 4 remaining DLC characters December of 2021 which is a level of pessimism not even I can reach.
 

Mamboo07

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I'm starting to think that asking for another Pokemon or 1st party rep is a sin against humanity...
(Most people don't want another Pokemon cause SwOrD sHiElD bad!)
 

7NATOR

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It lives, sure as in it's not disproven.
The issue is that it's uhh, useless now.

Unless you think, of course, they decide to drop all 4 remaining DLC characters December of 2021 which is a level of pessimism not even I can reach.
I don't know if that's what the Tweet is Implying. Perhaps the Fall 2021 date applying to all the Amiibo might be False, and some might release Early 2021, Mid 2021, Late 2021.

Of Course, maybe it just says 2021 because it's actually later than fall, in Which case that's not good and this theory can be Assassinated now
 

epicmartin7

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It appears that this one doesn't specify Fall...

Well, it appears they've caught onto amiibo theory and we're left in the dark once again regarding timeframes.
If Fall was actually a mistake... I guess we're back in business. But, of course, we will see :p
 

Mushroomguy12

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(Most people don't want another Pokemon cause SwOrD sHiElD bad!)
And they also happen to have 10 characters in the game. Which is the most characters any series has gotten in any Smash game period. And the fact that the series has had a net gain of four characters from Smash 4 to Ultimate. Which, again, is a number only rivaled by Fire Emblem's gains in Smash 4 (unless you also count Zelda and Sheik as separate characters in Melee, but regardless, it's never been surpassed), in terms of number of returning veterans + newcomers added in a single game.
 

Venus of the Desert Bloom

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There will be a new Character Analysis News article coming soon and I can say this one will be a doozy. It will be Godly.
 
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Shroob

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It's been a couple days since I've been on.

Considering I was being tagged on Discord about it, I assume people have gone over the N.Tropy/Clock stuff? I know you-know-who was very quick to make a vid on it.
 

Cosmic77

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I'm starting to think that asking for another Pokemon or 1st party rep is a sin against humanity...
(Most people don't want another Pokemon cause SwOrD sHiElD bad!)
Who cares what most people think. I'd rather voice my support for unpopular characters and find a handful of people who agree than to stay silent and continue thinking I'm alone.

Besides, I'm pretty sure Steve was treated as a joke until his reveal. There was a time when you could visit this thread, say something along the lines of, "Steve shouldn't get in Smash,", and have multiple users agree with you. Now if you were to say something like that, you'd probably be lectured about the significance of Minecraft and appreciating Steve's unique moveset.
 

Knight Dude

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Not that it helps in actually predicting characters, but I find these discussions in demographics to be pretty interesting. Don't ask me why. It's just really neat.

Been seeing stuff on what's popular in Japan or the US, and occasionally Europe, or how Puzzle games are pretty popular among girls and the like. And how SNK is pretty popular in Latin America and China.

But there's also larger genres that haven't gotten major content in Smash. MOBAs are pretty popular, but I admit to not really being a fan of those, I just know they are huge.
 

Shroob

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Who cares what most people think. I'd rather voice my support for unpopular characters and find a handful of people who agree than to stay silent and continue thinking I'm alone.

Besides, I'm pretty sure Steve was treated as a joke until his reveal. There was a time when you could visit this thread, say something along the lines of, "Steve shouldn't get in Smash,", and have multiple users agree with you. Now if you were to say something like that, you'd probably be lectured about the significance of Minecraft and appreciating Steve's unique moveset.
....no?

Like, Steve very much had a very solid fanbase. Like, I was there in the thick of the "Banjo vs Steve" wars in 2018/2019 where a lot of people were very staunchly pro-Steve and anti-Banjo... Hell, pretty sure Ugly Steve was made specifically to mock Steve fans during the war.

Hell, not like people here didn't take Steve seriously either, we've talked about him at length in the past, it's just, Banjo got in first, and no one really expected a 2nd Microsoft character. Back when Vergeben originally leaked Minecraft content, Steve was very much a talked about possibility, despite some people wanting nothing more than a stage/mii costume only.


Like, the most poopooing of Steve I've seen was just "He's ugly", which is entirely personal taste. I think he looks fine, but that's also my opinion. There's also "I don't want him", but that's said about literally every character by various folks.


Was Steve talked about a lot after Banjo's reveal at E3 of last year? No, but that's also because no one expected Microsoft to play ball twice. Not you, not me, not a lot of people tbh. That in no way means people considered Steve 'a joke', especially since people had seriously talked about him the prior 2 years. This isn't even a case of hindsight. There's still sores between the Steve and Banjo communities to this day due to how often they fought with one another.
 
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SpectreJordan

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Okay, so before I do this, I should point to my EU writeup a month ago.

The intuition is roughly correct, yes. EU has a lot of similiarties with NA, but PC games have a stronger root in the EU at large. Consoles arrived here later, but from around the N64 era European consumer habits started reflecting that of American ones. There's still some room for variation, of course, but by this point the EU market is relatively uniform because the online playerbase play each other mostly and because the console manufacturers often promote continent-wide. PlayStation for example promotes its brand through advertising in the premier European football / soccer competition - the UEFA Champions League - and have done so since the PS1 days.

Western Europe's probably the region that most closely resembles America - but there are some regional variations at play. As I wrote in the writeup, I wouldn't be surprised if Layton's popular in Europe - especially in France and neighboring countries - due to his similarities with Franco-Belgian comics like Tintin. Layton's not the sole case, although it's difficult to say how many such cases there are.

Western Europe's also the larger half by sheer population - Germany, UK, France, Italy and Spain thusly form the core of the European console market with neighboring nations and regions more or less following. Nintendo have been very quick with providing German, French and Spanish (as well as Italian) translations in their games since at least the GCN era, which helps.

What I didn't go into in my writeup was Eastern Europe / Russia (I'll use the usual definition: the former Eastern Bloc / Soviet-controlled nations). That region is even more computer-centric - especially Russia. While I'm not that familiar with Eastern Europe's general gaming at large, it's apparently here that those weird PC games really come into the fore:



That's not to say that there aren't console users in the region - there absolutely are. However, here the computer becomes more prominent (probably because of sheer historical inertia and generally less money to burn). As such, most of the European console base is based in Western Europe. Still, Poland's rather large in its own right, and the other Eastern European countries also have signifcant gaming populations.

Apparently the Witcher books have a cult following in the region (which wouldn't surprise me since most books were released in the 90s, and the first Witcher game in 2007), so it wouldn't surprise me if Geralt is indeed more popular there.

I've talked some about Russia in the past, but it bears repating (heh): It's difficult to overstate just how much the PC dominates the Russian video game sphere. One reason Counter-Strike and DOTA took off in Russia is because they were very easily downloaded / pirated. Consequently, Steam has a large presence in Russia too. Again, sheer historical inertia and less money to burn. Outside of CS, DOTA and World of Tanks, Fortnite, PUBG and Hearthstone does well there apparently. Localization is key here, the Russian audience is much less familiar with English than the Western or even Eastern European audiences.

The console of choice is the PlayStation - and while Nintendo has established a presence in the homeland of Tetris, Nintendo has struggled quite a lot there. To say the least. Still, Nintendo's not entirely out of the game here - Nintendo's started to translate games into Russian, with Ultimate being one of the first - although it's clear that they're the underdog.

I should also mention Turkey due to its historical and current ties to Europe - and the fact that Turkey and the Middle East is sometimes included in Europe's sales data. Like Russia, Turkey's generally a PC / computer-leaning country due to - once more - sheer inertia and less money to burn. And very much like Russia, the key to success appears to be localization / translation (which is why LoL, PUBG / Fortnite and the Witcher apparently did pretty well in Turkey). Nintendo's apparently had it a bit rocky there, so it'll take some time I think until they have a foothold there.

Mobile gaming's got a major foothold in Europe too (as it's done everywhere - seriously, mobiles being ubiquotous and there being loads of free / F2P mobile games on the app stores are massive reasons.). Not much to say here, mobile's probably the most uniform format.



Wait, does that mean that WBaWC Reimu's disrespect game will be 10 times better than EoSD Reimu's?

I'm sold either way.
Thanks for the write up, it was a good read! I’m glad I had a grasp on the Euro gaming scene. I was actually going to mention Geralt but decided not to due to his novel origins.

Imagine they announce an Assist Trophy, make another Guess Who and then the trailer goes black...then this track plays

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GM8h2Xyis9M
Best case scenario after Shovel Knight IMO.

It appears that this one doesn't specify Fall...

Well, it appears they've caught onto amiibo theory and we're left in the dark once again regarding timeframes.
If they’ve caught onto Amiibo Theory & are withholding that information then they’re just being *****. The announcement of the announcement is not exciting, they have no reason to keep that a secret if they know it’s confirmed to happen at a certain date.

I’m pretty content with Steve right now, so I’m not dying for the next reveal. But if they’re purposely trying to throw us off the scent of when the next reveal is, then that’s just rude.
 

I.D.

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Besides, I'm pretty sure Steve was treated as a joke until his reveal. There was a time when you could visit this thread, say something along the lines of, "Steve shouldn't get in Smash,", and have multiple users agree with you. Now if you were to say something like that, you'd probably be lectured about the significance of Minecraft and appreciating Steve's unique moveset.
I feel the most common example of this was people saying stuff like "I don't think (want) Steve should be in Smash, but i'd be okay with a stage because Minecraft would be best represented with a stage."
 

SpectreJordan

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On the topic of Nintendo trying to appeal to different demographics. I noticed that 3 of the characters in FP1 had some built in “Nintendo fan” appeal (:ulthero::ultbanjokazooie::ultbylethf:) while the other two (:ultjoker::ult_terry:) didn’t.

I’m curious to see how many, if any, characters we’ll see that don’t really have the “Nintendo fan appeal” in FP2. I feel that Steve & obviously:ultminmin have the appeal.

I’d say the likes of Crash, Sora, Geno, Rayman, Monster Hunter & obviously any 1st parties would have it. While characters like 2B, Master Chief, Lara Croft, League characters, Warcraft characters & to a lesser extent Dante & Dovahkiin wouldn’t.
 

osby

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If they’ve caught onto Amiibo Theory & are withholding that information then they’re just being *****. The announcement of the announcement is not exciting, they have no reason to keep that a secret if they know it’s confirmed to happen at a certain date.

I’m pretty content with Steve right now, so I’m not dying for the next reveal. But if they’re purposely trying to throw us off the scent of when the next reveal is, then that’s just rude.
I doubt it means anything like that. When was the last time Nintendo tried to play 4D chess with the speculation community?

They're probably just trying to cover themselves with the ambiguous dates in case the pandemic causes an unforeseen issue.
 

Cosmic77

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....no? Like, Steve very much had a very solid fanbase. Like, I was there in the thick of the "Banjo vs Steve" wars in 2018/2019 where a lot of people were very staunchly pro-Steve and anti-Banjo... Hell, pretty sure Ugly Steve was made specifically to mock Steve fans.

Hell, not like people here didn't take Steve seriously either, we've talked about him at length in the past, it's just, Banjo got in first, and no one really expected a 2nd Microsoft character.


Like, the most poopooing of Steve I've seen was just "He's ugly", which is entirely personal taste. I think he looks fine, but that's also my opinion.
I'm not saying everyone treated him as a joke, but the general consensus on Steve was far from supportive. Most people didn't like to talk about Steve for various reasons, and that made it hard for anyone to carry a conversation without someone trying to explain why Steve shouldn't be in or why Master Chief would be a better choice.

Steve had his supporters, but overall, Minecraft wasn't a franchise people welcomed in Smash speculation. Always felt like people were gladly ignoring the numerous reasons why Minecraft would probably be something Nintendo would want because their views of the franchise were stained by YouTubers and little kids.

I feel the most common example of this was people saying stuff like "I don't think (want) Steve should be in Smash, but i'd be okay with a stage because Minecraft would be best represented with a stage."
Yeah, I saw that lot.

In other words, "I'm willing to acknowledge that Minecraft has had a huge impact on gaming and deserves to be in Smash in some capacity, but I want to convince myself that Steve can't and/or won't get in Smash."
 

PLATINUM7

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On the topic of Nintendo trying to appeal to different demographics. I noticed that 3 of the characters in FP1 had some built in “Nintendo fan” appeal (:ulthero::ultbanjokazooie::ultbylethf:) while the other two (:ultjoker::ult_terry:) didn’t.

I’m curious to see how many, if any, characters we’ll see that don’t really have the “Nintendo fan appeal” in FP2. I feel that Steve & obviously:ultminmin have the appeal.

I’d say the likes of Crash, Sora, Geno, Rayman, Monster Hunter & obviously any 1st parties would have it. While characters like 2B, Master Chief, Lara Croft, League characters, Warcraft characters & to a lesser extent Dante & Dovahkiin wouldn’t.
What are you basing "Nintendo fan" appeal on?

Who the "fans" speculate or the character's prevalence on Nintendo consoles?

I can see the former but not the latter.
 

Shroob

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I'm not saying everyone treated him as a joke, but the general consensus on Steve was far from supportive. Most people didn't like to talk about Steve for various reasons, and that made it hard for anyone to carry a conversation without someone trying to explain why Steve shouldn't be in or why Master Chief would be a better choice.

Steve had his supporters, but overall, Minecraft wasn't a franchise people welcomed in Smash speculation. Always felt like people were gladly ignoring the numerous reasons why Minecraft would probably be something Nintendo would want because their views of the franchise were stained by YouTubers and little kids.



Yeah, I saw that lot.

In other words, "I'm willing to acknowledge that Minecraft has had a huge impact on gaming and deserves to be in Smash in some capacity, but I want to convince myself that Steve can't and/or won't get in Smash."
I mean, that's just bias speaking.


It's why people say Dante/MH is more likely than any other Capcom characters, or how Geno is the only obvious Square rep despite Square's library.


Gotta take a step back and realize that the online community is only a fraction of the playerbase. In a world of boomers like us, aka an online message board that we spend way too much time on to be considered healthy, of course there's gonna be a lot of "Ew Minecraft" people, just like there are "Ew FNaF", "Ew Undertale", or "Ew Fortnite" folk. That's just how us old fart seem to act online, "If the kids like it, it's bad."


Personally, I always liked Minecraft, but the reason I didn't mention Steve after E3 2019 is because, again, we got a Microsoft character, and I didn't expect a 2nd.
 

ZelDan

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As someone that didn't want Steve and would have just preferred a stage or spirits for the franchise, I also always figured Steve had a shot at becoming playable. I figured he would have been hard or awkward to make playable but not impossible and I of course was well aware of Minecraft's massive success and staying power.
 
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Guynamednelson

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And they also happen to have 10 characters in the game. Which is the most characters any series has gotten in any Smash game period. And the fact that the series has had a net gain of four characters from Smash 4 to Ultimate. Which, again, is a number only rivaled by Fire Emblem's gains in Smash 4 (unless you also count Zelda and Sheik as separate characters in Melee, but regardless, it's never been surpassed), in terms of number of returning veterans + newcomers added in a single game.
"Which is a number only rivaled by Fire Emblem's gains" And clearly you have the extreme opposite of an arbitrary grudge against the series.
 

MooMew64

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TBH, I wouldn't use this site as any gauge for what the general consensus is on characters due to how much echo chambering goes on here. Heck, I wouldn't use any site as a general consensus: Smash fans are infamous for hating everything that isn't considered "worthy" or isn't a most wanted pick of the individual. Honestly, we're one of the most closed-minded fanbases I've ever seen, and that's saying something when you look at other fanbases that are out there.

As for Steve himself, as Shroob said: It basically boiled down to some Banjo fans felt threatened by him, so they lashed out and threw accusations of "ugly", "Not influential", or "Not historical enough to gaming". After Banjo, people just forgot about Steve because there was a narrative pushed by some that Banjo "won" and Steve "lost", and then everyone started pushing Master Chief as the next "obvious rep" because again, 'Ew, cringe Minecraft kids game" was a heavy presence in the Smash community, especially here.
 

Rie Sonomura

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Well

wasn’t expecting to wake up to an article of THAT...
 
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