Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Not to mentions we have a song that debuted in an edgy Earthbound fangame as DLC in the game.

I've also heard that the Battle Tower theme in Pokémon Sword & Pokémon Shield isn't an original tune, but a remix of a song used for a scene that you would never find in a Pokémon game.

 

[Wigglerman]

Man, I just realized a character I'd really love but will just not happen: Earthworm Jim. With Bomberman officially off the table now...he's my last hold out. My hope upon hope. Never going to happen but if by some miracle he does I shall scream: Groovy!

 

[JOJONumber691]

I mean, they let Sonic in...

seriously though, I'm not sure Nintendo cares about the policies of other companies and creators regarding fan content. It's clear they're protective of their own ips, but I don't see a reason why they shouldn't be ambivalent towards ones they don't.

Minecraft has a massive modding scene that has been acknowledged by the developers (Pistons and Horses were taken from a mod). If they're OK with that, I can't see them having a problem with Touhou.

Not to mention we have a song that debuted in an edgy Earthbound fangame as DLC in the game.

True, but:
Sonic was introduced in Brawl, before SEGA showed interest in Fan Works directly.
Minecraft is f'in M A S S I V E , so a Special Exception.
I don't even think Nintendo is even aware of the Halloween Hack since it was, to my knowledge, only ever released in English. That and Shigesto Itoi has a say over Fan Works getting taken down since he has partial ownership over the Mother Franchise.

 

[PeridotGX]

I've also heard that the Battle Tower theme in Pokémon Sword & Pokémon Shield isn't an original tune, but a remix of a song used for a scene that you would never find in a Pokémon game.

i can't believe toby fox was given the opportunity to add a song into the biggest media franchise of all time, and he derived the melody from a fan song he made 10 years ago that's about that. And got away with it.

truly the maddest lad.

 

[JOJONumber691]

i can't believe toby fox was given the opportunity to add a song into the biggest media franchise of all time, and he derived the melody from a fan song about that. And got away with it.

truly the maddest lad.

Imagine if the borderline Inevitable Pokemon gets in with Battle Tower as a Track.

 

[PeridotGX]

True, but:
Sonic was introduced in Brawl, before SEGA showed interest in Fan Works directly.
Minecraft is f'in M A S S I V E , so a Special Exception.
I don't even think Nintendo is even aware of the Halloween Hack since it was, to my knowledge, only ever released in English. That and Shigesto Itoi has a say over Fan Works getting taken down since he has partial ownership over the Mother Franchise.

yeah if you ignore all evidence to the contrary you get some pretty solid proof.

 

[Dr. Yatagarasu]

i can't believe toby fox was given the opportunity to add a song into the biggest media franchise of all time, and he derived the melody from a fan song he made 10 years ago that's about that. And got away with it.

truly the maddest lad.

god the hack is so hilariously edgy as well
it literally oozes 14 year old edgelord energy

 

[Aerospherology]

god the hack is so hilariously edgy as well
it literally oozes 14 year old edgelord energy

Dr. Andonuts says some things that aren't for good boys and girls and Megalovania plays

 

[PeridotGX]

god the hack is so hilariously edgy as well
it literally oozes 14 year old edgelord energy

I was talking about the battle tower song but that's another good example of madladdery.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

but I'd imagine that it has quite a lot of female fans as well.

with men like Phoenix, Miles and freaking Gadot, Id expect many women to like the game

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Mr. Rime has incredible move set potential. He can create barriers, use his cane for psychic attack, and create ice.

Cinderance can kick fire.

which one would be the one to get in?

Trick question. The answer is Snom.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Yeah the majority of the playerbase for Layton are women, its pretty much the reason why his daughter exists as well, since Level-5 was trying to appeal to them with a female protagonist and all.

I'm not as sure about the playerbase for Ace Attorney though, but I'd imagine that it has quite a lot of female fans as well.

Well we have Athena Cykes as the new female protagonist for Ace Attorney, not to mention female mentors like Mia and female sidekicks like Maya and Ema from the start.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Mr. Rime has incredible move set potential. He can create barriers, use his cane for psychic attack, and create ice.

Cinderance can kick fire.

which one would be the one to get in?

This is kind of why I doubt gen 8. The ones promoted enough for TPC to allow Sakurai to use could be unique, but not uniiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiique like Mrs. "I defy the standard/special attack system and you can use my A and B moves simultaneously and also jump while my attacks are still out and also I can extend arms in both directions" or Mr. "I have three neutral specials and unarmed/wood/stone/gold/diamond versions of pretty much all my moves and two that don't have that many variations still have iron/ironless versions".

 

[7NATOR]

EarthWorm Jim I Believe was Deconfirmed by the Creator themselves, or at the least it seems Earthworm Jim wasn't considered. I think there's youtube video on it

Here's something I found interesting, but I'm not sure it'd have any effect on this DLC pass. According to this article, Scott Hawkins, head of the developer relations team at NoA met with a Warner Bros executive to discuss bringing Mortal Kombat 11 to the Switch. The exchange went like this:

Warner Exec: Scott, are you sure Nintendo wants this game on Nintendo Switch?
Scott: Yes, we absolutely want this game.

Scott: He was concerned because its a mature-rated title that it wouldn't be Nintendo-friendly. But clearly after seeing the first month's worth of sales and see it be the number one game on the platform, it shows that yes, there is an audience. There's an audience for lots of different types of platforms, and this was a big success.

-------------

I'd say Scorpion has a shot if not this time, maybe the next time around.

I'm Confused by this article wording. It makes it sound like they only allowed MK11 on Switch after seeing how well it sold, when the Switch Version actually Came out on the Same time. I guess they meant in hindsight it was a good idea to Give Warner Bros. a Chance

In other stuff, this would fit the Timeline of Scorpion apprantly being Neogtiated for Last Fall, and such like that. Of course that was just a Gamefaqs rumor, but it's whatever. But yeah, Mortal Kombat has access to More Mature Audience. so it's kinda different from the other DLC Characters. even though Joker is also from Mature game, that game is also More niche and different compared to MK

As for Japan, could be interesting with that situation. Could be used to Show Interestby WB, and by Nintendo they could have some sort of Urban legend or something like that

 

[JOJONumber691]

Then again, CERO Banned Mortal Kombat as a Series from release on Japanese Home Consoles so I doubt it.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

Then again, CERO Banned Mortal Kombat as a Series from release on Japanese Home Consoles so I doubt it.

That's misinformation, Wikipedia is wrong.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Then again, CERO Banned Mortal Kombat as a Series from release on Japanese Home Consoles so I doubt it.

No, they didn't. Netherrealm would be allowed to released censored versions of MK9/X/11, but given how increasingly gory fatalities are now, it's not going to be as simple as making the screen grayscale during a fatality in MKII.

 

[Idon]

No, they didn't. Netherrealm would be allowed to released censored versions of MK9/X/11, but given how increasingly gory fatalities are now, it's not going to be as simple as making the screen grayscale during a fatality in MKII.

Would a caveat or restriction that's undoable not effectively serve as the same thing in effect as a ban?
Either way, Japanese audiences aren't playing it, and it's pretty difficult to sell a DLC character on the premise of:
"if they ever release a censored version, you'll be able to play that game, but until then... "

 

[GoodGrief741]

Would a caveat or restriction that's undoable not effectively serve as the same thing in effect as a ban?
Either way, Japanese audiences aren't playing it, and it's pretty difficult to sell a DLC character on the premise of:
"if they ever release a censored version, you'll be able to play that game, but until then... "

Japanese audiences can still play the game on Steam, or really on any console that isn't region-locked - including the Switch.

The games don't release in Japan because they would get a high rating that would probably limit its commercial viability - much like how most gaming storefronts in America refuse to stock AO-rated games. So Netherrealm probably figured that the games wouldn't sell if censored and they wouldn't sell to a mass audience with the rating they'd get, and any Japanese fans will still be able to get the games on Steam uncensored, making localization a waste of effort from their part.

But that doesn't make the games banned, anymore than Mother 3 is banned over here. It's just an unlocalized game, with the caveat that they can and do still sell an unlocalized version.

 

[TwiceEXE]

It really doesn't matter what nomenclature you use; MK is not released in Japan and effectively stands no chance of being added to Smash until that changes. It isn't that complicated.

 

[Dinoman96]

If there's one character reveal that would cause an absolute ****storm, it'd be Earthworm Jim, mainly on the accounts of his creator being a well known bigot/transphobe.

One could say a similar thing with Steve, but Notch hasn't actually had anything to do with Minecraft since the Microsoft buyout and they've mostly distanced themselves away from him (he wasn't even allowed to attend Minecon last year). Meanwhile TenNapel owns Jim, I think.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

In all honestly though? What are Scorpion's chances really? Does he indeed have a shot granted a very small one being one of those surprise reveals?

 

[PSIGuy]

Would a caveat or restriction that's undoable not effectively serve as the same thing in effect as a ban?
Either way, Japanese audiences aren't playing it, and it's pretty difficult to sell a DLC character on the premise of:
"if they ever release a censored version, you'll be able to play that game, but until then... "

They've sold DLC on the premise of "if we ever release a localized version, you'll be able to play that game, but until then... " before

Sakurai could even poke fun at it. "Some Japanese fans may be wondering, is it really fair to release characters that we haven't had access to? And the answer is no, but we've done it three times before, so why not again?"

 

[Dinoman96]

They've sold DLC on the premise of "if we ever release a localized version, you'll be able to play that game, but until then... " before

Sakurai could even poke fun at it. "Some Japanese fans may be wondering, is it really fair to release characters that we haven't had access to? And the answer is no, but we've done it three times before, so why not again?"

I think Roy and Lucas were kind of a different case because they were just returning veterans who already had their foot in the door in Smash Bros. Not quite the same as adding an entirely new fighter.

 

[Idon]

They've sold DLC on the premise of "if we ever release a localized version, you'll be able to play that game, but until then... " before

Sakurai could even poke fun at it. "Some Japanese fans may be wondering, is it really fair to release characters that we haven't had access to? And the answer is no, but we've done it three times before, so why not again?"

Those are more sold on the fact that "Hey, it's Smash characters you liked coming back" rather than on the premise of their unlocalized games.

That's half the entire appeal of "Everyone is Here" I would think, unless there are a hidden sect of diehard GnW, Ice Climbers, and Gyromite fans I think their Smash character is the appeal more than representing their original game. Even with the aforementioned examples, Marth/Roy had to be convinced to appear internationally and Lucas was assumed to have his game be internationally released, so it goes to show they're exceptions.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I think Roy and Lucas were kind of a different case because they were just returning veterans who already had their foot in the door in Smash Bros. Not quite the same as adding an entirely new fighter.

Well sure, but the statement was just as true back in Melee and Brawl as it is now.

 

[7NATOR]

In all honestly though? What are Scorpion's chances really? Does he indeed have a shot granted a very small one being one of those surprise reveals?

It's not 0%, and I think because of how Big Mortal Kombat is in other Regions besides Japan, It's possible it could be Included

I Mean, when it comes to Nintendo Choosing the DLC, I don't think it's just NOJ, NOA is probably on Board as well.

It depends on whether WB Games is willing to play Ball on the Price (I think Netherrealm Is definitely willing to Play ball), How Fatalities would be Implemented in Smash, and whether There are any Characters with more Priorty for those 4 Slots in FP2 (And how bad MK's Lack of Precense in Japan lowers it's Priority). After all, More than 4 Characters seem "Likely" to be included, but there's only 4 Slots. Yes

 

[Dinoman96]

Well sure, but the statement was just as true back in Melee and Brawl as it is now.

Yeah, but we already kinda know Roy and Lucas being in Smash were happy accidents (Roy and Marth were meant to be expunged from all non-JP versions of Melee and Sakurai wasn't even aware that Mother 3 was supposed to be JP only when locking down Brawl's roster). This is something I think Nintendo/Sakurai have been more careful about since then. But Lucas and Roy were still popular Smash veterans so they just decided to bring them back for DLC.

 

[PSIGuy]

That's half the entire appeal of "Everyone is Here" I would think, unless there are a hidden sect of diehard GnW, Ice Climbers, and Gyromite fans I think their Smash character is the appeal more than representing their original game.

I mean, any character added to Smash is a Smash character. So they could just add Mortal Kombat and say "Yeah they're not in Japan but they're in Smash and you guys are gonna love em cause they're in Smash". It's worked like... 20 times before.

 

[SharkLord]

Can't wait for Sakurai to try and explain to us why we're getting the same character twice as CP8 and CP9.

"No, you're not seeing double. The next character is Reimu Hakurei, followed by Also Reimu Hakurei, but with a different stage and more songs."

Yes, there will be two Reimus; Embodiment of Scarlet Devil Reimu and Wily Beast and Weakest Creature Reimu. The only difference is that WBaWC Reimu's gohei is ten times longer than EoSD Reimu's.

 

[Idon]

I mean, any character added to Smash is a Smash character. So they could just add Mortal Kombat and say "Yeah they're not in Japan but they're in Smash and you guys are gonna love em cause they're in Smash". It's worked like... 20 times before.

Well that's easy when you already have your foot in the door as a smash veteran or are included with everyone else.
I doubt it in this case as it's DLC and it's being sold separately and as such has to hold up on its own and sell itself to an audience beyond "It's a Smash Character" and just assuming that the core fanbase will buy it.

 

[NotGenerico]

I'd like to see Scorpion as a playable character, but I don't think it'll happen. I could see a Mii Costume, though. A Scorpion Mii Costume that changes colors like the Bomberman costume would be pretty cool, I think.

 

[SKX31]

Europe: ??? They either seem to be into the same games as Americans or strategy/weird PC games that won’t work in Smash. If there’s a front runner for Europe, I’d like to know that’d be interesting info

Okay, so before I do this, I should point to my EU writeup a month ago.

The intuition is roughly correct, yes. EU has a lot of similiarties with NA, but PC games have a stronger root in the EU at large. Consoles arrived here later, but from around the N64 era European consumer habits started reflecting that of American ones. There's still some room for variation, of course, but by this point the EU market is relatively uniform because the online playerbase play each other mostly and because the console manufacturers often promote continent-wide. PlayStation for example promotes its brand through advertising in the premier European football / soccer competition - the UEFA Champions League - and have done so since the PS1 days.

Western Europe's probably the region that most closely resembles America - but there are some regional variations at play. As I wrote in the writeup, I wouldn't be surprised if Layton's popular in Europe - especially in France and neighboring countries - due to his similarities with Franco-Belgian comics like Tintin. Layton's not the sole case, although it's difficult to say how many such cases there are.

Western Europe's also the larger half by sheer population - Germany, UK, France, Italy and Spain thusly form the core of the European console market with neighboring nations and regions more or less following. Nintendo have been very quick with providing German, French and Spanish (as well as Italian) translations in their games since at least the GCN era, which helps.

What I didn't go into in my writeup was Eastern Europe / Russia (I'll use the usual definition: the former Eastern Bloc / Soviet-controlled nations). That region is even more computer-centric - especially Russia. While I'm not that familiar with Eastern Europe's general gaming at large, it's apparently here that those weird PC games really come into the fore:

It was the after party of inaugural Central & Eastern European Games Awards (CEEGA), which took place in Poznan earlier this month. After a few disco and pop tunes, hundreds of games devs went wild as Nirvana's 'Smells Like Teen Spirit' blasted through the speakers. A lot of people in the room grew up during the 90s; a time of poverty and hopelessness for the region, this was their anthem.

Many channelled that feeling of disparity into escapism, sat in front of the computer. It produced a generation of IT-literate, ambitious and creative people who are establishing Central and Eastern Europe as a development culture with a unique, often very dark visual and stylistic tradition, which is beginning to make waves across the global video games industry.

That's not to say that there aren't console users in the region - there absolutely are. However, here the computer becomes more prominent (probably because of sheer historical inertia and generally less money to burn). As such, most of the European console base is based in Western Europe. Still, Poland's rather large in its own right, and the other Eastern European countries also have signifcant gaming populations.

Apparently the Witcher books have a cult following in the region (which wouldn't surprise me since most books were released in the 90s, and the first Witcher game in 2007), so it wouldn't surprise me if Geralt is indeed more popular there.

I've talked some about Russia in the past, but it bears repating (heh): It's difficult to overstate just how much the PC dominates the Russian video game sphere. One reason Counter-Strike and DOTA took off in Russia is because they were very easily downloaded / pirated. Consequently, Steam has a large presence in Russia too. Again, sheer historical inertia and less money to burn. Outside of CS, DOTA and World of Tanks, Fortnite, PUBG and Hearthstone does well there apparently. Localization is key here, the Russian audience is much less familiar with English than the Western or even Eastern European audiences.

The console of choice is the PlayStation - and while Nintendo has established a presence in the homeland of Tetris, Nintendo has struggled quite a lot there. To say the least. Still, Nintendo's not entirely out of the game here - Nintendo's started to translate games into Russian, with Ultimate being one of the first - although it's clear that they're the underdog.

I should also mention Turkey due to its historical and current ties to Europe - and the fact that Turkey and the Middle East is sometimes included in Europe's sales data. Like Russia, Turkey's generally a PC / computer-leaning country due to - once more - sheer inertia and less money to burn. And very much like Russia, the key to success appears to be localization / translation (which is why LoL, PUBG / Fortnite and the Witcher apparently did pretty well in Turkey). Nintendo's apparently had it a bit rocky there, so it'll take some time I think until they have a foothold there.

Mobile gaming's got a major foothold in Europe too (as it's done everywhere - seriously, mobiles being ubiquotous and there being loads of free / F2P mobile games on the app stores are massive reasons.). Not much to say here, mobile's probably the most uniform format.

Yes, there will be two Reimus; Embodiment of Scarlet Devil Reimu and Wily Beast and Weakest Creature Reimu. The only difference is that WBaWC Reimu's gohei is ten times longer than EoSD Reimu's.

Wait, does that mean that WBaWC Reimu's disrespect game will be 10 times better than EoSD Reimu's?

I'm sold either way.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

In regards to Tales characters.

I do think its worth noting that Tales of Symphonia is the best selling Tales of game by quite a large margin.

If the sources I'm looking at are correct, it's the only Tales game to break 2 million units sold (and that's counting all rereleases for all Tales games).

Tales of Destiny and Tales of Vesperia are next as each have around 1.6 million units sold.

Perhaps that is why Lloyd is the "only correct choice."

 

[GoodGrief741]

In regards to Tales characters.

I do think its worth noting that Tales of Symphonia is the best selling Tales of game by quite a large margin.

If the sources I'm looking at are correct, it's the only Tales game to break 2 million units sold (and that's counting all rereleases for all Tales games).

Tales of Destiny and Tales of Vesperia are next as each have around 1.6 million units sold.

Perhaps that is why Lloyd is the "only correct choice."

Iirc if you count all versions Symphonia is over 3 million, so that's around twice the sales of the next best-selling game.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Iirc if you count all versions Symphonia is over 3 million, so that's around twice the sales of the next best-selling game.

The figures I was looking at included all rereleases of Symphonia in that 2 million figure.

 

[SharkLord]

In regards to Tales characters.

I do think its worth noting that Tales of Symphonia is the best selling Tales of game by quite a large margin.

If the sources I'm looking at are correct, it's the only Tales game to break 2 million units sold (and that's counting all rereleases for all Tales games).

Tales of Destiny and Tales of Vesperia are next as each have around 1.6 million units sold.

Perhaps that is why Lloyd is the "only correct choice."

What sticks out the most for me is that Lloyd is by far the most popular Tales character in the Smash fanbase, which is what Nintendo and Sakurai would be looking at, seeing as Smash is their game. He's also the one to get the Mii Costume and most likely did the best on the poll, seeing as Yuri's support only really picked up after the Vesperia remaster, a couple years after the ballot. I feel like the info that reaches the Smash team would tell them that Lloyd is the most popular choice.

 

[Cosmic77]

I think pretty much any character who doesn't have a somewhat notable presence in Japan or the West (more specifically NA) probably won't be added. Heck, I don't even believe Lucas would be here if Sakurai knew ahead of time that Mother 3 wasn't coming overseas.

If there's hesitation to add some of Nintendo's own characters like Takamaru in a game that's primarily first-party, why would third-parties be any better? Yeah, there might be a few characters like Hero and Banjo who are significantly more popular in one part of the world than the rest, but at least just about everyone has the opportunity to (if they want to) play the games from those series. Adding characters from games people can't even play in a pass of paid DLC feels like a horrendous business decision that would be all but guaranteed to receive criticism.

Makes more sense to stick with the dozens upon dozens of popular characters who are present everywhere than to choose from the small handful of popular characters who essentially don't exist in certain regions.

 

[Dr.DonPatch64]

Obviously, Zelda Needs more characters in smash, More then Fire Emblem, but not more than Pokémon and Mario.

 

[Faso115]

Imagine they announce an Assist Trophy, make another Guess Who and then the trailer goes black...then this track plays

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GM8h2Xyis9M