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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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Cutie Gwen

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I'm curious to see the potential backstory of certain third party characters and why they're in the second pass. Min Min was obviously a correction of ARMS's unfortunate timing around Ultimate's release and Steve in both negotiations and concept likely took a long time to put together so it might telling for what we'll see over the next year. Basically if we get a Dante, what made him more practical now as opposed to last year?
I mean. 2018 was when DMC hype was actually alive again and had muh Nintendo relationships
 

SNEKeater

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I feel like a lot of people overlook Lara Croft and Tomb Raider. There are so many requests for Sora but I believe TR made a bigger impact in gaming.
I don't think you're wrong for thinking Tomb Raider made a bigger impact.

But that doesn't really mean Nintendo is gonna choose Lara. Not like Sora is competition to her, because Sora would be up to Disney, not Square.
Personally I don't see Nintendo picking her before Geno, a Bravely character, Neku or 2B. But that's how I see it, I wouldn't be angry if they surprised me.
 
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SKX31

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Koei Tecmo - Ryu, Atelier rep
Namco - Dig Dug, Llyod, KOSMOS, Taiko no Tatsujin , Agumon, Dark Souls Rep, Soul Calibur Rep, God Eater Rep,
Square - Bubble Bobble, Bravely, Sora, Kain or Raziel, Lara Croft, Space Invaders, Aya, Star Ocean Rep, SaGa rep, Mana rep. (Rpg list goes on), Neku, Leo/Emma
Sega - Alex Kidd, NIGHTS, Phantasy Star Rep, Akki, Sakura, Arle, Kiryu, Billy Hatcher
Activision - Crash, Spyro, Diablo Rep, Tracer, Pitfall Rep
EA - Sims, Mass Effect, Plants vs. Zombies (in b4 "we can play that in Smash already!"), Dragon Age, Dead Space and Command & Conquer, System Shock
Atlus - Shin Megami rep, Etrian Odyssey rep
Capcom - Dante, Ammy, Arthur, Monster Hunter, Phoenix, Viewtiful Joe
Nihon Falcom - Adol, ToCS rep
Microsoft - Master Cheif, Conker, other Rare reps
Konami - Frogger (I mean, they killed Goemon. and Bomberman twice)
Warner Bros - Maxwell, Mortal Kombat
Valve - Gordan Freeman, Chell, TF2 rep
Ubisoft : Rayman
Arc - Sol Badguy
Sakurai - Fighting Dragons character (wouldn't it be cathartic to have a prototype character from the original smash prototype be a DLC character. Anyone else?)

---

If capcom does get another rep, I am partial to Ammy.
I do believe you should start spoilering the list from this point forward. It's getting big enough for that.

I can also mention Tencent - LoL and Path of Exile, as well as Marvelous - Story of Seasons.

Giving any character a 90% chance of getting in Smash is a huge overestimate.

Dante is popular, but I wouldn't give him anything above 50%.
Hell, I'm the kind of guy who would argue that one shouldn't give any characters anything above 40-50 % (or if you wanna be more strict, 20-25 %) since we only have 4 slots left anyhow, and a lot of characters share the same positives or might be grouped into similar categories etc.

Another part of me tends to feel the reason people expect Dante is due to Bayonetta despite that not being the case and the creator no longer holds the rights to either or one of them.
Not just pot and weed, but marijuana as well!
I would love to have been a fly on the wall when Capcom decided to push ahead with Team Ninja on the project. Sure, Capcom was pushing hard on the Western angle by the time DMC:CMD started development, and DMC4 wasn't what Capcom hoped sales wise...

... but jesus were there some leaps of logic made in those meetings. Probably the pot, weed, marijuana... add a little LSD too. Because how else does one explain DMC=DMC's Nightclub scene? Or Vergil's plan?

There are quite a few ideas that are good and intriguing, like making a DMC story centered around contemporary topics (Metal Gear Solid shows one can pull this off quite readily)... but then again, there was no need to reinvent the wheel around Dante (or mr. Poet Vergil). That's what makes that game so frustrating to me personally. Like Shadow the Hedgehog, there are some redeemable elements... just lost in a sea of wonky planning and excecution all over the place.

At least the game gave us masterful dialgoue like "You don't **** with a God." Mwah. TGA material right here.

I'm curious to see the potential backstory of certain third party characters and why they're in the second pass. Min Min was obviously a correction of ARMS's unfortunate timing around Ultimate's release and Steve in both negotiations and concept likely took a long time to put together so it might telling for what we'll see over the next year. Basically if we get a Dante, what made him more practical now as opposed to last year?
The simple answer would be "Securing rights took this long" - although there are a few possible alternative explanation if Dante gets in. Like Sakurai trying to figure out how the character would fit in Smash (he anguished over how Steve would play after all), or something more minor like trying to figure out which weapons / stage to prioritize.
 

LiveStudioAudience

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I feel like a lot of people overlook Lara Croft and Tomb Raider. There are so many requests for Sora but I believe TR made a bigger impact in gaming.
Lara's in a weird spot where nothing significant would disqualify her, but aside from her major status as a well known video game character, she just doesn't have an immediate hook like others do.

-Been on Nintendo consoles, but not exactly a staple of them either
-Decent potential for moveset, yet nothing groundbreaking
-Somewhat unique design, however she isn't as distinct as others might be
-A series that still sells well, though not as huge as a Halo, KM, or Final Fantasy
-Stages and songs that would be fine, albeit not as memorable as numerous others

She's be a fine addition to the roster; its just that to a lot of people she doesn't get a reaction beyond "Oh that'd be cool."
 

Cutie Gwen

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I would love to have been a fly on the wall when Capcom decided to push ahead with Team Ninja on the project. Sure, Capcom was pushing hard on the Western angle by the time DMC:CMD started development, and DMC4 wasn't what Capcom hoped sales wise...

... but jesus were there some leaps of logic made in those meetings. Probably the pot, weed, marijuana... add a little LSD too. Because how else does one explain DMC=DMC's Nightclub scene? Or Vergil's plan?

There are quite a few ideas that are good and intriguing, like making a DMC story centered around contemporary topics (Metal Gear Solid shows one can pull this off quite readily)... but then again, there was no need to reinvent the wheel around Dante (or mr. Poet Vergil). That's what makes that game so frustrating to me personally. Like Shadow the Hedgehog, there are some redeemable elements... just lost in a sea of wonky planning and excecution all over the place.

At least the game gave us masterful dialgoue like "You don't **** with a God." Mwah. TGA material right here
DmC was all an elaborate plan to make people crave the sequel to 4, especially as DMC took some notes from DmC in the future
 

Scoliosis Jones

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Joker, Snake, Cloud, Bayonetta, and Terry Bogard are totally the most Nintendo characters to ever be added.

In all seriousness though, it doesn’t matter- if it did, the 3rd party roster would be totally different. But here’s the most pressing thing...Sonic? Mega Man? Pac-Man? Not Nintendo. There’s no such thing as an “honorary” Nintendo character either, it’s just a made up criteria for why folks prefer certain characters.

At its base, there’s nothing wrong with that. But then it suggests that Sonic is, “one of the good ones” which is again, fine, but also disregards the fact that Dante is now on Nintendo platforms with 3 games, putting him over Joker and Bayonetta who do not have 3 games (though Bayonetta is published by Ninty). What even characterizes being “Nintendo” enough?

In terms of percentages and probability, 90% for any character is nuts. Usually anything over 50% makes something favorable so even I would say 90% is nearly assured to happen.

In terms of Capcom, as much as I like Monster Hunter I think the bandwagon is...extremely strong right now, whereas a short time ago it was considered dead in the water. Makes you think!

I would just like to point out, mind you, that it’s entirely possible that Monster Hunter Miis come back with a different Capcom character or none at all. By association, saying a lack of appearance of Mii costumes would benefit Monster Hunter would also insinuate it benefits Lloyd Irving and Geno in the same way, therefore it’s selective to only suggest Monster Hunter is looking good based on the costume absence. Folks said the same thing with Heihachi prior to his costume reveal too. It’s selective bias.

Basically, while I think Monster Hunter would be cool, I think folks are honestly overestimating it based on recent news about a new game (similar to why folks such as myself thought Travis would be playable, RIP). Phoenix Wright seems like its not really exactly expected, but possible, which seems about right. I think anybody saying Dante is a lock is a little crazy, but on the table? I do feel some don’t give the character enough credit. You might not think he’s the most likely character, but can I see him being in the mix as a possible choice? I think that’s undeniable.
 
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Michael the Spikester

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I feel like a lot of people overlook Lara Croft and Tomb Raider. There are so many requests for Sora but I believe TR made a bigger impact in gaming.
The reason I feel people overlook Lara unfortunately is due to in their eyes she doesn't bring anything interesting to the table as at the end of the days she's an experienced human at her peak.

But yeah, I think people really underestimate her chances and if we are to get another Square rep it'll be her as Tomb Raider is next in line after Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest. Same how it is for Nintendo with Super Mario, Pokemon, and The Legend of Zelda.
 
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Evil Trapezium

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So far, none of the DLC third party Mii costumes in Smash 4 has become playable fighters for DLC yet. Could this mean that Monster Hunter, Lloyd Irving and Geno are dis-confirmed?
 

Sysreq

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tbh, at this point in my mind I have to picture Nintendo execs coming to Sakurai, peer at him over their glasses, and say "Can you do X?" like he said in the Steve presentation.

So could I imagine them saying "Can you do Kingdom Hearts?" Yes. "Can you do Monster Hunter?" Yes. "Can you do Soulcalibur?" Yes. Stuff like that. I feel like they care about the characters less, so something like "Can you do Shadow from Sonic" or "Octolings from Splatoon" is a lot less likely.
 

SKX31

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tbh, at this point in my mind I have to picture Nintendo execs coming to Sakurai, peer at him over their glasses, and say "Can you do X?" like he said in the Steve presentation.

So could I imagine them saying "Can you do Kingdom Hearts?" Yes. "Can you do Monster Hunter?" Yes. "Can you do Soulcalibur?" Yes. Stuff like that. I feel like they care about the characters less, so something like "Can you do Shadow from Sonic" or "Octolings from Splatoon" is a lot less likely.
Well, one clearly does not refuse Nintendo's (P)resident accountant (höh :p ) - he just happens to be Sakurai's boss too:



(Edit: And yes, I'm pretty sure Sakurai meant Furukawa due to the above, as well as Furukawa's history as an accountant for NoE and director at TPC.)
 
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LiveStudioAudience

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I will say that while I'm suspecting both Capcom and Square Enix fighters (however foolhardy that might end up being) I do think they're third parties that best lend themselves to potentially having somewhat unexpected choices in terms of characters given their long histories. Dante has a decent likelihood, but Smash has had enough unlikely selections that I can't entirely rule out an Arthur or Amaterasu either and that is a little exciting.
 

DX_E

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The reason I feel people overlook Lara unfortunately is due to in their eyes she doesn't bring anything interesting to the table as at the end of the days she's a normal experienced human.

But yeah, I think people really underestimate her chances and if we are to get another Square rep it'll be her as Tomb Raider is next in line after Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest. Same how it is for Nintendo with Super Mario, Pokemon, and The Legend of Zelda.
That's what I'm thinking. I don't think she has Steve level of moveset potential but I honestly want to know how she would get interpreted in this game since her games focus on exploring, puzzle solving, survival and shooting & jumping.

I can imagine a moveset focused around her dual pistols, pick axes, first aid kit, rope, grapple and, flares. She could be the first character that could actually climb up walls.

But I think she would be one of the top picks Nintendo would consider from Square now that FF and DQ are in the game.
 
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Michael the Spikester

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Dante or Ammy is what I see from capcom. I know MH is popular, but I cannot see it personally. Maybe wrong. But those are where I put my money at the moment.
I love Amaterasu and really do want her but even above Phoenix Wright?

If anything I feel it'd go Dante>Phoenix Wright>Amaterasu.
That's what I'm thinking. I don't think she has Steve level of moveset potential but I honestly want to know how she would get interpreted in this game. Her games focus on exploring, puzzle solving, surviving and shooting & jumping...so I can see a moveset focused around her dual pistols, pick axes, first aid kit, rope, grapple and, flares. She could be the first character that could actually climb up walls.

But I think she would be one of the top picks Nintendo would consider from Square now that FF and DQ are in the game.
Especially now that I feel Geno's chances have dropped IMO. I don't honestly see him getting in at this point aside from a Deluxe Mii costume.
 
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I.D.

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In terms of Capcom, as much as I like Monster Hunter I think the bandwagon is...extremely strong right now, whereas a short time ago it was considered dead in the water. Makes you think!
Monster Hunter is just a bandwagon and people only support it due to it getting games on Switch.
However the support for my favorite character, Dante, is completely organic and he's a lock because he got games on Switch.
 

Mushroomguy12

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tbh, at this point in my mind I have to picture Nintendo execs coming to Sakurai, peer at him over their glasses, and say "Can you do X?" like he said in the Steve presentation.

So could I imagine them saying "Can you do Kingdom Hearts?" Yes. "Can you do Monster Hunter?" Yes. "Can you do Soulcalibur?" Yes. Stuff like that. I feel like they care about the characters less, so something like "Can you do Shadow from Sonic" or "Octolings from Splatoon" is a lot less likely.
Well, one clearly does not refuse Nintendo's (P)resident accountant (höh :p ) - he just happens to be Sakurai's boss too:



(Edit: And yes, I'm pretty sure Sakurai meant Furukawa due to the above, as well as Furukawa's history as an accountant for NoE and director at TPC.)
I just realized that all four Presidents of Nintendo since it became a video game company have technically worn glasses.

Shuntaro Furukawa takes the reigns as Nintendo's sixth company president -  Vooks
Yamauchi a Iwata: No te preocupes por el fracaso - Wii
 
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Sestetz

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What I'm wondering about Dante being in is, why would they pick him over a Resident Evil or Monster Hunter pick? Is it that he naturally fits in these crossover games and it's easier to push his moveset into smash? I was honestly surprised with the RE spirit board thing because of how much RE has appeared on switch, but I can also see how difficult putting in Chris/Leon could be besides just loading them up with a ton of guns (Only reason Snake doesn't is because they based his on the first Metal Gear with all those explosives).

I think Dante would end up being pretty unique if he was in, most likely it'd be like Joker 2.0 with the devil trigger. As for Monster Hunter I think they'd be more like a Byleth 2.0 with them taking weapons from different MH classes. I think they're both giant but it just depends on when Capcom and Nintendo started talking about their pick for dlc, I think MH is way more likely with Rathalos already in- But we're just gonna have to wait and see
 

Professor Pumpkaboo

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Really wants to play Disgaea 5 again.

Remembers that my Disgaea 5 game was connected to my Japanese account and I accidentally deleted the Japanese account.

goes to check eShop to download the game again and see how much it cost.

sees it is on sale for 19.99

POG
Sorry, Just wanted to show the emotional adventure I went through
 
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Scoliosis Jones

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Monster Hunter is just a bandwagon and people only support it due to it getting games on Switch.
However the support for my favorite character, Dante, is completely organic and he's a lock because he got games on Switch.
Ah yes. Clearly your reading comprehension is on point, because I totally said Dante is a lock!

Sweet own! You must be fun at parties.

I'd also like to point out that I never said that ALL Monster Hunter support is based in the recent game. The recent uptick and increase in confidence is absolutely due to the latest game, however. Frankly, if I can't have Dante, Monster Hunter is just another great option from a great gaming company.

BTW: Here's me totally saying Dante is a lock!
I think anybody saying Dante is a lock is a little crazy
 
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I.D.

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Ah yes. Clearly your reading comprehension is on point, because I totally said Dante is a lock!

Sweet own! You must be fun at parties.

I'd also like to point out that I never said that ALL Monster Hunter support is based in the recent game. The recent uptick and increase in confidence is absolutely due to the latest game, however.

BTW: Here's me totally saying Dante is a lock!
The point of my post was highlighting how quickly Dante fans accuse others of things that apply to themselves, using a bit of comical exaggeration.
Minute nitpickings about the wording of a sarcastic post won't change the fact that Dante's bandwagon is... extremely strong right now.
 

SNEKeater

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Monster Hunter is just a bandwagon and people only support it due to it getting games on Switch.
However the support for my favorite character, Dante, is completely organic and he's a lock because he got games on Switch.
...He's not really wrong? I mean the part about MH.

Not saying MH wasn't discussed before Rise was announced, but it would be a big exercise of revisionism to say "Monster Hunter talk hasn't skyrocketed after MH: Rise". Before the new game, Capcom discussions were dominated by Dante and Phoenix Wright, with Monster Hunter and Amaterasu as honorable guests, that is, if people even remembered these last 2, because as I said discussions were centered around Dante and Phoenix. Also Resident Evil, but then the spirit event happened.

I mean the days after Rise was revealed I saw half the thread (and myself included, to be honest) putting Monster Hunter as likely as Dante, if not above of the latter.
Not blaming anyone because this constantly happens even if we aren't aware. Recency change our opinions a lot when it comes to speculation.
 

Droodle

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Personally as someone who did argue that Steve is likely since all the way back in Fighters Pass 1; I don't know how anyone can feel like _______ is definitely 90% happening now. A ton of people were confident that Chief would get in before Steve, "because Minecraft isn't about Steve, and Chief is Xbox's poster boy and they'd want to shill Infinite. Steve is Mii costume material."; but look at how everything turned out. Now we have 4 slots, and I guess Chief could still happen (it ain't a hard rule that Microsoft can't get 2 characters, but subjectively far less likely in terms of speculation).

Now obviously we can still make prediction about "X being more likely than Y from Z company", but as Steve shows us; characters can come out of nowhere, with no big rumors or anything beforehand. I think both Dante and MH have a good shot; but I won't discount the possibility of Phoenix Wright/Ammy coming out of nowhere, "because a Nintendo Exec really likes them". It shouldn't really be a scenario of "the next Capcom fighter has to be MH/Dante, the next Square Enix fighter has to be Geno, the next Namco fighter has to be Lloyd, etc".

Those are obviously the frontrunners for such companies in a lot of ways, but I don't think people should dismiss less likely/popular alternatives. Like I said, Phoenix Wright/Ammy could still potentially get in over Dante/MH, 2B/Sephiroth/Neku/Lara don't really have anything going against them either aside from people convincing themselves that Geno is happening, there is nothing suggesting that Dark Souls/Klonoa/even another Tales protagonist like Yuri Lowell can't get in over Lloyd. Obviously there's also nothing really suggesting that Capcom/Namco/Square are 100% getting another fighter either, they're reasonable assumptions; sure, but they aren't guaranteed either.

...He's not really wrong? I mean the part about MH.

Not saying MH wasn't discussed before Rise was announced, but it would be a big exercise of revisionism to say "Monster Hunter talk hasn't skyrocketed after MH: Rise". Before the new game, Capcom discussions were dominated by Dante and Phoenix Wright, with Monster Hunter and Amaterasu as honorable guests, that is, if people even remembered these last 2, because as I said discussions were centered around Dante and Phoenix. Also Resident Evil, but then the spirit event happened.

I mean the days after Rise was revealed I saw half the thread (and myself included, to be honest) putting Monster Hunter as likely as Dante, if not above of the latter.
Not blaming anyone because this constantly happens even if we aren't aware. Recency change our opinions a lot when it comes to speculation.
I think in certain areas, ie Japan; MH in Smash has always been a pretty big request/discussion since the base game. But yeah, Monster Hunter discussion has really risen since Rise was announced around here; but it's really easy why, it's a culturally big series in Japan, and really the only thing going against it is the fact that it's represented already with Rathalos. I personally don't really think that really disconfirms MH or is as bad as people make it out to be; I mean even if Sakurai felt as though MH was represented well with Rathalos, he/Nintendo could have been convinced by the amount of requests Monster Hunter had been getting in Japan even after Rathalos was shown off. Not a completely outlandish scenario. That said, MH isn't a "lock" like some people keep on saying. I'd say it's "likely" (but I'd say the same for Dante too).
 
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I.D.

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...He's not really wrong? I mean the part about MH.

Not saying MH wasn't discussed before Rise was announced, but it would be a big exercise of revisionism to say "Monster Hunter talk hasn't skyrocketed after MH: Rise". Before the new game, Capcom discussions were dominated by Dante and Phoenix Wright, with Monster Hunter and Amaterasu as honorable guests, that is, if people even remembered these last 2, because as I said discussions were centered around Dante and Phoenix. Also Resident Evil, but then the spirit event happened.

I mean the days after Rise was revealed I saw half the thread (and myself included, to be honest) putting Monster Hunter as likely as Dante, if not above of the latter.
Not blaming anyone because this constantly happens even if we aren't aware. Recency change our opinions a lot when it comes to speculation.
How discussed was Dante before fake leaks and ports?
 

Shroob

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I don't understand the obsession with Cacomallow from a hate perspective here. It doesn't even hint at a character reveal (I know you guys are obsession over Geno). Both Mii Costumes could be released without a character reveal from that series. There has been very little connection between the Mii Costumes and Character reveals. We got Megaman stuff with Terry lol.
It honestly has nothing to do with Geno at this point, the thing is, literally every time someone brings up this leak, the conversation goes one way, and ONLY one way:

Someone brings it up thinking it could be real
Someone shows Mii costumes can be modded
Original poster retorts it's not good enough
People retort it's enough to prove it can be done
Someone retorts how the debug elements don't match at all with the Ken leak, which should be the dagger in the heart the leak needs to kill it
"Well, it could still be real."

Every.single.time.

So forgive me, and countless others, who are frankly exhausted with this leak. The person who brings it up is already set in believing it to be real, while practically everyone else who jumps into the conversation thinks it's fake, so if both sides are 100% set in their ways and aren't willing to budge, why even have the discussion at all? This isn't like a normal leak where there's hints of skepticism all around and reason to doubt, this is a very much "IT'S REAL! NO IT'S NOT HERE'S WHY!" kinda deal. Any other leak in its position would have been thrown out after a year of absolute nothing, but it hangs on because frankly, people want it to be real, as the sole reason why.

And if it doesn't show up with CP8, it'll just show up with CP9, and if it doesn't show up with CP9, then it'll show up with CP10 and..... it's literally "Moving Goalposts: The Leak". People will still be parading around Cacomallow as potentially being real come E3 next year when we're on CP9 or 10 depending how 2021's reveals go, barring a confirmation/deconfirmation, and that's frankly both concerning and mind boggling.
 
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Scoliosis Jones

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How discussed was Dante before fake leaks and ports?
You could say that about literally any character.

Have I made a deal of DMC3 Special edition? Yes. But it's because it's specifically an exclusive Special Edition. It's a fan favorite game with exclusive features that have been desired for years.

If it were just another game, I would agree it should be treated just like any other. But that, combined with no spirit event, and Itsuno specifically talking about Smash is more than just "having a game on Switch".

But this has been said numerous times before.
 
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SNEKeater

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How discussed was Dante before fake leaks and ports?
Same case. I already said in my post that directly or indirectly recency is something that influences us a lot. I wasn't around here when they announced DMC1 for the Switch but I guess it wasn't really different from Twitter and other places, that is: people starting to think Dante was more likely for Smash. And I don't blame them when it literally was DMC debuting on a Nintendo console for the first time.

In any case I never said Dante never had bandwagoners when they started porting the series to the Switch. There were people jumping to the Dante bandwagon. It's not like it's a bad thing, if you ask me. Also, with my previous message I was just saying that Scoliosis wasn't really wrong to say Monster Hunter discussions skyrocketed after Rise (despite already being a big and popular series with strong Nintendo connections), because that's what happened, just like it happened with Dante and just like it will happen with Phoenix Wright if Ace Attorney 7 is announced soon, for example.
 
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CureParfait

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I don't understand the obsession with Cacomallow from a hate perspective here. It doesn't even hint at a character reveal (I know you guys are obsession over Geno). Both Mii Costumes could be released without a character reveal from that series. There has been very little connection between the Mii Costumes and Character reveals. We got Megaman stuff with Terry lol.
It is mainly because people treats the leak like it is a real one despite there's a bunch of indication that the Cacomallow leak is fake.
 

Scoliosis Jones

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There is no reason to believe that Cacomallow is real. There may have been at one point, but that is no longer the case.

To any Geno fans reading, I am not saying that because I think Geno sucks or something. I am saying that because it simply, logically, doesn’t add up. Those costumes, if they’re real, would be out by now. It’s been a loooooooooong time for them to have released.

I think you can make a much stronger case for Geno without it. Imho, drop the Cacomallow leak.
 
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