Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Powerman293]

Well I'll keep having faith in my underdog as a Capcom rep.

At this point that leak is like a Hydra, it just won't die no matter how much you cut it down.

Geno thread keeps Doubling down on it. As much as I like Geno this bothers me since it makes the Geno fanbase look crazy.

Pretty sure I could make those models. Hell. I have seen others make those models. It is dead. It was dead when Ken gave a thumbs up because no leakers ever really have calling cards like that.

bUt mOdDiNg wAsN't a tHiNg yEt!!!

Bro, what's to say some advanced Ultimate modding in secret just to mess with people?

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

Mega Man
Rocks the House!

I like this because in Japan it would read: Rock Man rocks the house.

 

[Shroob]

I like this because in Japan it would read: Rock Man rocks the house.

Well, in Japan, they don't even have taglines, they're just the generic -JOINS THE BATTLE.

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

Well, in Japan, they don't even have taglines, they're just the generic -JOINS THE BATTLE.

Really? That's sad.

 

[cashregister9]

Picture Of The Day

2017年のきょう、ニンテンドークラシックミニ スーパーファミコンが発売。 ということは、幻の作品『スターフォックス2』の発売日でもあります。 pic.twitter.com/4yXZXzwcUT

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) October 5, 2020

Star Fox 2 Anniversary

 

[SneakyLink]

Picture Of The Day

2017年のきょう、ニンテンドークラシックミニ スーパーファミコンが発売。 ということは、幻の作品『スターフォックス2』の発売日でもあります。 pic.twitter.com/4yXZXzwcUT

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) October 5, 2020

Star Fox 2 Anniversary

1984年のきょう『デビルワールド』発売!! pic.twitter.com/bl4um5CtQy

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) October 5, 2020

Also Devil World Anniversary

 

[SharkLord]

Alright, here's my predictions.

CP8 revealed around December/January, released the following month.
CP9 revealed and released in the Spring range. Gun to my head, I'd go with March and April, respectively.
CP10 revealed at E3 and released in the July/August range.
CP11 could be revealed at E3 as well, depending on how big they are. If not E3, reveal in September instead. Either way, I expect a release in the September/October range, maybe November at the very latest.

Note that this assumes December 2021 is the absolute latest, and not necessarily the exact end date.

 

[Shroob]

So yeah, can anyone prove the existence of that leak? Like, I don't think it's real, but if it exists, then damn it got pretty damn lucky. Guessing Terry isn't hard, but it's pretty neat.

 

[Captain Shwampy]

View attachment 288398


Probably a huge coincidence but hmm.

I dont understand what this is saying

 

[Shroob]

Points for Creativity I guess... but yeah this is fake
The exclusion of ARMS and the fact that Luminary and Erdrick are seperated

To humor this leak a bit:
I doubt that a random Bamco employee would know information that only a handful of Higher ups would know about, And why would Namco have all the unnecessary information that only Nintendo Higher Ups would know. It wouldn't shock me if Leakbait would still need to follow copyright guidelines, that seems like to many companies to get rights from for leak bait. 100% fake

Of all the things to take issue with, that isn't one of them tbh. Remember the Square 7 of Verg? If you actually believe him, he had apparently heard both Luminary AND Erdrick.

 

[P.Kat]

No Min Min?

oooohhh they were so close

Nope not even close, they added Rex but no Elma? No respect I tell you.

 

[VongolaFair]

I’m late to the party but here’s what I expect the rest of the pass to contain (in no specific order)

An Assist Trophy promotion
Dante
A Sega character (either Kiryu or a SMT rep)
Sora

 

[cashregister9]

Of all the things to take issue with, that isn't one of them tbh. Remember the Square 7 of Verg? If you actually believe him, he had apparently heard both Luminary AND Erdrick.

I'll admit I was being kinda pedantic with that comment, I put that there because I wanted some more fuel when I didn't really need it.

 

[TheBeastHimself]

You know, I like to think that I have a good amount of gaming knowledge, but many people in this thread know so, so much more than me.

For example, I tend to confuse Dante from DMC and Travis Touchdown. So I have to sit and think "Travis is from No More Heroes, that's right. Dante starts with a D, so he's from DMC."

 

[JamesDNaux]

I'm fairly confident that Crash is next and Hayabusa will be one of the last three, the highly coveted Namco Rep™ would be my other guess.

Starting to feel like maybe Sora isn't so impossible, but I doubt he'll show up this pass.

 

[TheBeastHimself]

I'm good pals with folks in the Geno thread so I hope nobody from there reads this post as some kind of "attack" because I'm merely joking, but...

I fear for my digital life because I just committed the cardinal sin of saying "the Cacomallow costumes would have come out by now..."

 

[cosmicB]

So I've been thinking about Imran's "evergreen" statement and how Steve affects that.

Steve is almost definitely going to be the most sold character by a sizable amount across both passes, but he also has the added benefit of getting more eyes on Smash in general. Sure, there's going to be Minecraft fans that don't branch out at all beyond Steve, but there's also going to be some that get REALLY into Smash and end up paying attention to the future of the game. If Nintendo were smart, they'd want to take advantage of that and throw in things they want to advertise. 1st party games are a no brainer, but it could extend to strengthening partnerships as well.

Sony seems far less concerned with their domestic market than ever before, and we got another piece of unfortunate news today with the PS5 controller O and X universal standard issue. With that and the thousand other issues, Nintendo is poised to completely consolidate power in Japan over the next few years. They could work with small but reliable third parties like Falcom to increase mindshare all around in a mutually beneficial relationship.

I guess the big counterargument there is why Steve couldn't be the first of the pass as it would've sold the rest of it easy. He was clearly hard to make work, so that could be the easy answer, but who knows really. They may have just wanted to bite the bullet and suffer through a few months of poor pass sales to not mess up their schedule, as they would know the upcoming character would be a pass-seller no matter what.

If nothing else, I'd be curious to see sales indications even if we can't get hard numbers, like anecdotes about the pass in Japanese 7/11s.

 

[Arcadenik]

Went on /v/ the other day, found this. Of course, it's likely fake. I just thought this would be interesting to share.

Spoiler: big

View attachment 288396

If this is real, then that means Nintendo wants Captain Toad in Smash but Sakurai hates Toads.

The rest of the list seems solid... and some of the characters listed got in as playable fighters or as Mii costumes.

 

[Shroob]

If this is real, then that means Nintendo wants Captain Toad in Smash but Sakurai hates Toads.

The rest of the list seems solid... and some of the characters listed got in as playable fighters or as Mii costumes.

I can't even find if this is a real post at all tbh.

 

[DarthEnderX]

I loved when we was getting a character roughly every 2 months between and . Felt like the right amount of time for me personally.

It feels right for fighting games in general.

A 6 character, 1 year season pass is the sweet spot.

Konami - Frogger (I mean, they killed Goemon. and Bomberman twice)

BILL...RIZER!!

Dante or Ammy is what I see from capcom.

ARTHUUUUUR!!!

 

[rychu_supadude]

The exclusion of ARMS could be plausible since this is specifically for the first pass. On the other hand, Rex is supposedly a candidate but the pass was probably locked in too early for that.

It doesn't seem too likely that Nintendo cast their net this wide and gave him this much reign. The way Sakurai described the Minecraft selection doesn't really jive with the idea that they just picked from a list. Just my gut feeling here but I think Nintendo suggests franchises/games rather than characters, unless they're really really jonesing for BWD.

Geno thread keeps Doubling down on it. As much as I like Geno this bothers me since it makes the Geno fanbase look crazy.




bUt mOdDiNg wAsN't a tHiNg yEt!!!

Bro, what's to say some advanced Ultimate modding in secret just to mess with people?

Sounds like a condensed version of Grinch to me. When was the last time you saw a Doom fan clinging to this? Asking seriously, not rhetorically.

 

[PSIGuy]

So I've been thinking about Imran's "evergreen" statement and how Steve affects that.

Steve is almost definitely going to be the most sold character by a sizable amount across both passes, but he also has the added benefit of getting more eyes on Smash in general. Sure, there's going to be Minecraft fans that don't branch out at all beyond Steve, but there's also going to be some that get REALLY into Smash and end up paying attention to the future of the game. If Nintendo were smart, they'd want to take advantage of that and throw in things they want to advertise. 1st party games are a no brainer, but it could extend to strengthening partnerships as well.

[...]With that and the thousand other issues, Nintendo is poised to completely consolidate power in Japan over the next few years. They could work with small but reliable third parties like Falcom to increase mindshare all around in a mutually beneficial relationship.

Being evergreen probably includes appealing to as different audiences as possible since that sort of addition ends up creating a fanbase in due time, creating its own relevancy. Giving people what they didn't know they wanted, if that makes sense. I'm not saying there aren't Dragon Quest fans or SNK fans. But there's not a ton of overlap there, which means you have the most amount of people finding out about something new. That's the kind of scenario that benefits Nintendo and the third party partners the most.

In other words, I don't think we're necessarily getting a lot of commonly speculated characters or requested first party picks. The less overlap between the Smash fanbase and whatever gets added fanbase, the better. Collaborations like the one you suggested with Nintendo and Falcom are probably the way to go. Hell, even Banjo in hindsight seems like he was a way for Nintendo and Microsoft to consolidate their relationship. And he still plays towards giving Microsoft more attention in Japan.

 

[NotGenerico]

I can't even find if this is a real post at all tbh.

It's a real post. https://arch.b4k.co/v/thread/464169792/ I personally believe it just got lucky, though.

 

[Goombaic]

When was the last time you saw a Doom fan clinging to this? Asking seriously, not rhetorically.

This was the most recent I've seen someone using Cacomallow in favor of Doomguy.

 

[BlondeLombax]

I think the CacoMallow leak is fake.
Stuff is way to easy to fake.

Yet you'd think most people would learn after Omni's Rayman and the Grinch...

 

[EricTheGamerman]

I'm good pals with folks in the Geno thread so I hope nobody from there reads this post as some kind of "attack" because I'm merely joking, but...

I fear for my digital life because I just committed the cardinal sin of saying "the Cacomallow costumes would have come out by now..."

The fact that you show any concern about having put what should be an incredibly benign statement in the face of an incredibly and ever increasingly irrelevant "leak" should tell you a thing or two.

There's nothing wrong with wanting Geno, nor should there be, but holding on to every tiny ember of hope in the form of crazy crack theories and "leaks" is exactly why the thread has become such an infamous place in the entirety of Smash communities I feel. Like, what conceivable benefit does holding on to Cacomallow provide at this point? You'd think Geno surviving multiple additional culling opportunities and the same general support as always would be enough.

Like I know you meant this as a joke, but Cacomallow somehow still not being considered dead because of infinite goal post moving (it went from the next fighter, to a clear next fighter kill date, to a year past the "leak" would be dead, to "we'll know by the end of 2021" as the end date in the most obvious statement I've seen yet about it lol) is just a little crazy.

 

[SharkLord]

I'm good pals with folks in the Geno thread so I hope nobody from there reads this post as some kind of "attack" because I'm merely joking, but...

I fear for my digital life because I just committed the cardinal sin of saying "the Cacomallow costumes would have come out by now..."

Even the smallest of sparks can start a raging inferno. It's dangerous to say such things unarmed; Take this with you!

(Please excuse the "Blind Idiot" Translation, as TV Tropes so eloquently describes it. Dunno how a fire extinguisher became a hand grenade, but sometimes that's just how things do)

 

[Shroob]

Geno thread keeps Doubling down on it. As much as I like Geno this bothers me since it makes the Geno fanbase look crazy.




bUt mOdDiNg wAsN't a tHiNg yEt!!!

Bro, what's to say some advanced Ultimate modding in secret just to mess with people?

Doesn't even need to be in secret tbh, like, iirc it took less than 24 hours for people to start making their own Mii hats.

I'll give the leak credit for one thing, it did have functioning jigglebones, which I'm not sure if anyone else has actually done... but I'm also not saying that's a good thing either since Ultimate Mii hat modding is an absurdly small, niche community as is. I 100% believe that if someone actually sat down and hammered it out a couple hours, they probably could get functioning jigglebones on a model working in game, especially since all the hats that were thrown together to make fun of the leak were done in a very quick manner to make a point.

 

[Powerman293]

Sounds like a condensed version of Grinch to me. When was the last time you saw a Doom fan clinging to this? Asking seriously, not rhetorically.

Doom Slayer supporters are more bummed about the Bethesda interviews than anything Cacomallow did.

Also a condensed version of the Grinch? More like the exact opposite. Grinch had multiple new developments a day and was quickly disproven with a Direct a week later while Cacomallow has had nothing since the initial image/video and it's been a year.

 

[7NATOR]

The exclusion of ARMS could be plausible since this is specifically for the first pass. On the other hand, Rex is supposedly a candidate but the pass was probably locked in too early for that.

It doesn't seem too likely that Nintendo cast their net this wide and gave him this much reign. The way Sakurai described the Minecraft selection doesn't really jive with the idea that they just picked from a list. Just my gut feeling here but I think Nintendo suggests franchises/games rather than characters, unless they're really really jonesing for BWD.

Selection Process is weird

ARMS and Minecraft were definitely Nintendo wanting Specific Franchises in. But also, Remember that Byleth was chosen because Nintendo wanted a character that "People would be Playing now" by the time she released

So I think it could go all directions personally. I also think that they suggest alot of stuff, and I think a good amount of suggestions don't become Playable, but do turn into forms of other content like Spirits, Mii Costumes, etc

Being honest though, I'm unsure if they ever wanted a Specific Character. Like even despite the Backlash Waluigi got, I'm not sure if they would even outright say put Waluigi in. I'm sure in a situation like that, They could suggest a character that's in the game in some form (or one that be easier to develop), or what's probably more likely is that they give Sakurai a Full freebie for him to choose, perhaps multiple

 

[I.D.]

The fact that you show any concern about having put what should be an incredibly benign statement in the face of an incredibly and ever increasingly irrelevant "leak" should tell you a thing or two.

There's nothing wrong with wanting Geno, nor should there be, but holding on to every tiny ember of hope in the form of crazy crack theories and "leaks" is exactly why the thread has become such an infamous place in the entirety of Smash communities I feel. Like, what conceivable benefit does holding on to Cacomallow provide at this point? You'd think Geno surviving multiple additional culling opportunities and the same general support as always would be enough.

Like I know you meant this as a joke, but Cacomallow somehow still not being considered dead because of infinite goal post moving (it went from the next fighter, to a clear next fighter kill date, to a year past the "leak" would be dead, to "we'll know by the end of 2021" as the end date in the most obvious statement I've seen yet about it lol) is just a little crazy.

We are probably going to hear a lot about FP8 being a fan favorite that was supposed to be at E3 during the next months since that's the narrative the thread has officially adopted as fact.

 

[cosmicB]

We are probably going to hear a lot about FP8 being a fan favorite that was supposed to be at E3 during the next months since that's the narrative the thread has officially adopted as fact.

Just like how FP7 had to be him because of funny number 7 just like Seven Stars and also because of Mario anniversary and tournament and Gamestop "leak" and "insider" teasing and a million other things.

And when FP8 isn't Geno, it'll have to be 9 because there's one more character in this pass compared to the last one, therefore 9 will be the fan favorite Banjo of the pass instead of 8 as they all got pushed over by 1 somehow. Alternatively, 9 has to be him because he'll be not as known to the public at large "just like Terry was" or something.

 

[Phoenixio]

Alternatively, 9 has to be him because he'll be not as known to the public at large "just like Terry was" or something.

Oh I hate when this is brought up... Terry, unknown to the public? He's been in so many fighting games, old and new, his legacy is hardly doubted. He was simply not discussed as much on here.

Yeah, you really nailed the Geno argumentation there, I got just as riled up as with the real thing.

 

[Shroob]

There's no way Geno is FP8. Ya see, behold my flawless logic:

So the theory that's being postulated rn is that E3 was supposed to have 2 reveals, 1 of which wasn't going to be MinMin, but Covid ****ed everything up and caused internal delays for releases? Well.... You remember how Sakurai said:

And what Number would this fighter pass character be?

8

And what game is on it's 8th generation?

Pokemon

And what franchise just put out a song named after those trees specifically?

Checkmate, atheists, CP8 is the Gen8 rep you all dread. My logic is flawless

/s if it wasn't obvious

 

[Polan]

currently doing a lot of on shin megami tensei. now that steve definitely proved that nintendo will double dip on companies (not that i doubted it) and with smtv in the near future plus that perplexing lack of jack frost or any major smt references on joker's pack...big ol' thunk

 

[osby]

currently doing a lot of on shin megami tensei. now that steve definitely proved that nintendo will double dip on companies (not that i doubted it) and with smtv in the near future plus that perplexing lack of jack frost or any major smt references on joker's pack...big ol' thunk

Honestly, I don't see what's so surprising about non-Persona content in Joker's pack. It's not like any fighter except Terry came with content from other franchises and P5 Spirits were obviously focused on Confidants over Personas.

 

[Idon]

currently doing a lot of on shin megami tensei. now that steve definitely proved that nintendo will double dip on companies (not that i doubted it) and with smtv in the near future plus that perplexing lack of jack frost or any major smt references on joker's pack...big ol' thunk

Perhaps if SMT already had V out by now and didn't have to rub shoulders with their step siblings, Yakuza and Puyo Puyo I would be more hopeful. As is though, SMT is nothing but a pipe dream for me. I'd also chalk up to Persona lacking Megaten content as just Sakurai wanting to laser focus on Persona series specifically, especially Persona 5.

 

[Arcanir]

There's no way Geno is FP8. Ya see, behold my flawless logic:

So the theory that's being postulated rn is that E3 was supposed to have 2 reveals, 1 of which wasn't going to be MinMin, but Covid ****ed everything up and caused internal delays for releases? Well.... You remember how Sakurai said:
View attachment 288419

And what Number would this fighter pass character be?

8

And what game is on it's 8th generation?

Pokemon

And what franchise just put out a song named after those trees specifically?

Checkmate, atheists, CP8 is the Gen8 rep you all dread. My logic is flawless

View attachment 288420

/s if it wasn't obvious

Of course, the trees, it was always in the trees! How could be we so blind!?

As an aside, that was a great music video.

currently doing a lot of on shin megami tensei. now that steve definitely proved that nintendo will double dip on companies (not that i doubted it) and with smtv in the near future plus that perplexing lack of jack frost or any major smt references on joker's pack...big ol' thunk

SMT and Persona are separated and defined from each other as franchises despite sharing some elements, so it's not too surprising we didn't see the former get any content with the latter's inclusion.

 

[PSIGuy]

I guess it depends if Joker is big enough to Nintendo that they agreed to do another inclusion with a promotional focus and that Atlus decided on SMTV for it. Sort of like the reverse of Banjo, where Minecraft was big enough that they agreed to have a smaller character release while working out negotiations. But I don't think Joker is that big even if he did cause a big splash as the first unveil. And it's not like Nintendo will be hurting for games in 2021 so why promote any one third party release over the others with a Challenger Pack? Travis got pretty unceremoniously dunked so it's not like being an exclusive and having a presence on the console since its unveiling means anything either. Or that it ever did. Ha ha ha. Haaaaaa...

 

[Polan]

Honestly, I don't see what's so surprising about non-Persona content in Joker's pack. It's not like any fighter except Terry came with content from other franchises and P5 Spirits were obviously focused on Confidants over Personas.

yeah but after ARMS and minecraft, i think looking at series that we thought weren't getting anything else is a pretty good idea. and smt is one that stood out to me.

Perhaps if SMT already had V out by now and didn't have to rub shoulders with their step siblings, Yakuza and Puyo Puyo I would be more hopeful. As is though, SMT is nothing but a pipe dream for me. I'd also chalk up to Persona lacking Megaten content as just Sakurai wanting to laser focus on Persona series specifically, especially Persona 5.

i don't think yakuza is that much of a threat. puyo puyo is but i think nintendo would probably gravitate towards smt.