Okay, so I do have some recent Japanese stats (I'm calling in
3BitSaurus
for this too for verification's sake and because he might know where to look for the Japanese server stats). He did have this to say re:
the Japanese server overall:
Memes can be a bit inaccurate because they're simplifications, but at the same time, that's not the most positive indictment, is it?
However, the stat I'm interested in for the sake of this argument is the
LJL, the Japanese LoL League. Using the e-sports viewer tracker Escharts:
Summer 2018: 11 700 average viewers, 29 000 peak (Grand Finals)
Summer 2019: 18 500 average viewers, 43 000 peak (Grand Finals)
Summer 2020: 23 000 average viewers, 53 000 peak (Grand Finals)
Yes, a decent chunk of the viewership is likely to come outside Japan... but the general LoL crowd is going to be more interested in the Chinese (LPL) / Korean (LCK) leagues which air at the same time, or EU's (LEC) / NA's (LCS) respective leagues. The major LoL streams can easily top 100K+, especially when popular teams like Fnatic and TSM are involved.
The Japanese league is not considered major for any intents and purposes - it gets 1 spot for the World Championship alongside other "Wild Card" regions like LatAm, Russia and Oceania and are seeded into the Play-In (for the final Group Stage spots). (Most) Major regions like China and EU get 3-4 spots at Worlds, and most of those spots go to the proper Group Stage.
I'm not going to argue that the Japanese LoL scene has seen an explosion in numbers:
the Japanese broadcast of the Korean league (LCK) peaked at 10K, and averaged around 5K before that peak. It's kind of clear that a Japanese LoL fandom exists... but it ain't big.
That's where 3BitSaurus' mention of a Wild Rift port becomes kind of an intriguing - suddenly LoL would be on consoles / mobiles and thus break one of the barriers of entry. It's not a guaranteed ticket to success - Overwatch has those ports already... but Overwatch is the kind of game that's natively PC. Not many prefer to play on console. Riot are seeking to mitigate this by making Wild Rift fit consoles / mobiles, and produce other LoL-related games that fit consoles better (like Riot's fighting game). It's going to be tough to call if that strategy suceeds or not.
As for more interest... maybe? There's a bit of potential cultural overlap in the character designs etc. Ahri would be recognizeable to Japanese audiences as a kitsune-esque being, while Yasuo is (kinda) a samurai-esque character. Etc. Although again, Overwatch (what with Genji / Hanzo being obviously Japanese) didn't become a bonafide success story in Japan. There's also the question of lingering stigma.
Evil Trapezium 's
search some month ago illustrated this:
Which is something to consider even when Wild Rift makes it into the App Stores - we're talking about making a more concerted effort in a region that has hiherto not really become MOBA hotbeds, far from their immidiate neighbors in China and Korea.
I would say that it's possible - a LoL character would raise eyebrows within Japan, that's for certain, but it'd bring a lot of controversy within the Japanese hardcore too, that's for sure. With "Pandering" likely to be one of the main points of contention (Trapezium's musing that it'd be something that " alienate the Japanese audience" is not unfounded IMHO). It would likely bring more interest within Japan too , especially amongst those less opinionated... but 3BitSaurus' observation that the Japanese server's memed as a bot farm is not going to exactly help that.
All in all, I'd argue that it could, but there are quite a few hindrances. Riot's additional games (like the LoL fighting game etc.) might actually help that, so I'd argue there's a chance.