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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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N3ON

Gone Exploring
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A popular and well-known third party who is also rather niche in some way (Reimu, Sakura, Adol, etc.)
Those are rather loose restrictions for popular and well-known if you ask me.

Unless you're not counting the countries that aren't Japan.

4. Crash, but only if Sakurai can tiptoe around Crash’s origin story. He’s kind of a legacy character, and I don’t know how I, nor how Nintendo feels about Sony being brought up in Crash’s presentation.
If they can show Sakurai owning a Playstation, I'd imagine they can at least say Playstation.
 

Shadowvegeta

Smash Cadet
Joined
Apr 25, 2015
Messages
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So what's everyone's current predictions?

Mine are

78: Ryu Hayabusa
79: Cinderace
80: Master Chief
81: Rex
Ive had to think about this since Steve was announced and Travis is a mii costume. mine would have to be:

78: Ryu Hayabusa
79: Crash Bandicoot
80: Doom Slayer
81: Agumon or Lloyd
 
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P.Kat

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The DLC is so unpredictable that I'm just gonna stick to vague archetypes rather than actual characters. Won't bother with ordering them, either.
  • A popular and well-known third party who is also rather niche in some way (Reimu, Sakura, Adol, etc.)
  • A first party character (Rex, Isaac, Bandana Dee, etc.)
  • Another first party (See above)
  • A 100% iconic third party (LoL, Monster Hunter, Ryu Hayabusa, etc.)
As a wild card, replace/combine any of these with a fan favorite character. Since we seem to think differently than Nintendo and end up being either completely incorrect or only partially correct, we probably won't see too many hot topic characters. If we do, they'll probably have something holding them back (Too sexy, no Nintendo connections, overlooked in favor of someone else, etc.)
1. Amaterasu
2. Elma
3. Impa
4. Sora
 

Hadokeyblade

Smash Legend
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Messages
10,852
The more I think about it the more I think Shantae may actually have a shot this time around.

Think about it, Volume 2 is about bringing new gimmicks to the game. What's more gimmicky than a girl who can shapeshift?
 

SNEKeater

Smash Master
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I know people **** on Sony for being seemingly the only company unwilling to cooperate and get their characters into Smash (well, other than Disney I guess), but I really can't blame them. They're just doing what competitors in any field of business do, and choosing not to aid their rivals.

Like I said, Microsoft is the odd one out, not Sony. And even then, that's a relatively recent development. Until the age of Phil Spencer, there's no way Microsoft would've shared their IP with Nintendo (past the uncontested handheld space). We're very fortunate they do now, but frankly, that's a huge aberration and a minor miracle.

And let's not overlook that there's no way Nintendo would lend their characters to a crossover of Microsoft's, or Sony's. They keep their IP in a vice-grip, and are among the most stingy of all the companies out there, gaming or not. It just doesn't appear that way here because they're hosting the party.
Yeah. Some folks seem to think Sony is acting weird here, but it's not really the case?

I've said multiple times. Imagine Sony decides to make All Stars 2. Do you think Nintendo would let them Mario to appear there? Obviously not. Microsoft is the odd one here and while Spencer is clearly a big part of that change, is also because they've clearly changed their focus for their gaming division. Their big appeal isn't "exclusives" anymore, since you can play all Xbox exclusives day one if you have a PC (and now even Switch has received some, like Ori 1 and 2). Now is all about Gamepass. They're pushing the Gamepass A LOT, to the point it's even absurd. If it was up to them, I bet they would put their service on Nintendo and Sony consoles, but that's basically a Trojan Horse, specially for Sony.

People like to talk about how Nintendo and Microsoft are buddy buddy, and while certainly their relationship is better than 10 years ago, it's not like Nintendo is putting their games or their characters on Xbox? So far, all this "alliance" has been very one sided, with Microsoft doing all the dirty work.

As you said Nintendo knows their biggest appeal, by far, are their IPs. And they're very protective of them, as we know. Similar case with Sony so far, I guess. They wouldn't let Nintendo to use one of their characters for Smash, assuming Nintendo would even decide to contact them, which already sounds quite bizarre to me.

For that reason a Sony character in Smash would be the biggest announcement possible (not counting non-videogame characters). A bigger deal than Sonic, Cloud, Steve, Sora (?) or Chief (?) by far, if you ask me. Specially if they went for their biggest characters: Kratos and Nathan Drake.
 

LiveStudioAudience

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The more I think about it the more I think Shantae may actually have a shot this time around.

Think about it, Volume 2 is about bringing new gimmicks to the game. What's more gimmicky than a girl who can shapeshift?
Sakurai publicly announces that there's been a popular series featuring animal transformations that's long overdo for a Smash appearance and cites its long term legacy as truly worth immortalizing in Ultimate...











And introduces Asha from the Wonder Boy series.
 

SharkLord

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Those are rather loose restrictions for popular and well-known if you ask me.

Unless you're not counting the countries that aren't Japan.
Japan covers the well-known part, the West covers the niche part.

Though admittedly, I have a lower bar of entry than most people here, so...
 
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Teeb147

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Sakurai publicly announces that there's been a popular series featuring animal transformations that's long overdo for a Smash appearance and cites its long term legacy as truly worth immortalizing in Ultimate...











And introduces Asha from the Wonder Boy series.
Monster World is one of my favorite classics. There weren't really a lot of games like it back then, besides Zelda 2 to some degree. And I like Asha, so it definitely would be welcome by me :D But even with the remakes I think it's not that well known.
 

CosmicQuark

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I wouldn’t say Nintendo/Microsoft’s relationship is one-sided. Nintendo gets to use Microsoft’s IP, and Microsoft gets the promotion they want for their games. Their focus on Gamepass and getting more into the Japanese market makes promoting their IP bigger than keeping their characters exclusive.

While Mario on an Xbox would never happen given how important that exclusivity is to Nintendo, it’s not one sided—they just have different priorities: exclusivity (Nintendo), promotion (Microsoft).
 

Animegamingnerd

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I wouldn’t say Nintendo/Microsoft’s relationship is one-sided. Nintendo gets to use Microsoft’s IP, and Microsoft gets the promotion they want for their games. Their focus on Gamepass and getting more into the Japanese market makes promoting their IP bigger than keeping their characters exclusive.

While Mario on an Xbox would never happen given how important that exclusivity is to Nintendo, it’s not one sided—they just have different priorities: exclusivity (Nintendo), promotion (Microsoft).
While MS does have some benefits, it has been clear that Nintendo is gaining more from it then MS has considering Minecraft was already big in Japan and Banjo being in Smash has basically done nothing for the Xbox in Japan looking at the sales numbers each week.
 

EricTheGamerman

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I don't know if Microsoft would want to put their biggest icon on the Switch without Nintendo putting their biggest icons on the XBox.
Microsoft put two of their characters in Smash and have let three of their formerly exclusive games come to Switch. What they get out of it is additional exposure for their IPs and money, they don't need Mario or Pikachu on Xbox in return and there's no expectation of it anyway lol.
 

Rie Sonomura

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SKX31 SKX31 how big would you say LoL is in Japan? it's big pretty much everywhere else, esp Korea and China like you said. if it's not AS big in Japan, you think a LoL character would help bring more interest in Japan?
 

SKX31

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I'm sure Valve, after Steam Boxes didn't go too far, would wish to leave computing hardware to everyone else. They're currently focused on VR but I have a feeling they'll want to branch out into portable gaming now that we can run shooter games on devices you don't need plugged in all the time.
Yeah, seems like we're thinking in similar lines here. I'm just a little hesitant on that since organizations like companies can be generally incredibly stubborn - especially when they're successful: "Why change what has worked?" Not counting out the possibility of course, but I'll be a little more hopeful when we start seeing actual movement in that direction. Either through an actual Smash reveal or games getting ported / released on the Switch.

While MS does have some benefits, it has been clear that Nintendo is gaining more from it then MS has considering Minecraft was already big in Japan and Banjo being in Smash has basically done nothing for the Xbox in Japan looking at the sales numbers each week.
OTOH, the Game Pass expansion is not just meant for the Switch - it's meant to cover PCs, mobiles, Xboxes, anything under the sun. Wouldn't be surprised if Microsoft lets one play Doom 2016 on an Internet-of-Things-connected Toaster 10-15 years from now. The Switch (and Smash) is part of it from Microsoft's general PoV, but not the entire equation.

Aaaand I'm staying firm in my decision not to post a Final Four prediction. Not just because it's going to be incredibly difficult to call by itself, but also since my "Most Wanted" are very, very closely bunched together. It was much easier to do 7 months ago, when we didn't even know ARMS was in.
 

Animegamingnerd

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I'm sure Valve, after Steam Boxes didn't go too far, would wish to leave computing hardware to everyone else. They're currently focused on VR but I have a feeling they'll want to branch out into portable gaming now that we can run shooter games on devices you don't need plugged in all the time.
Now that you mention it, I can see Valve making some kind of Handheld Gaming PC at some point given stuff like the GPD Win exist that has a niche fanbase for it.
 

Lionfranky

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In general, i'd agree. But Chief is basically the Xbox mascot because all MC games are multiplat. It's a weird situation. Chief is more iconic to Xbox, but Steve is more iconic as a whole
Most of iconic video game characters lists put Chief, but not Steve. I guess they are out of touch or have different vision?
 

Shroob

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Most of iconic video game characters lists put Chief, but not Steve. I guess they are out of touch or have different vision?
It's less Steve's iconic as is Minecraft as a whole is, since, ya know, it's the highest selling game in the world bar none with over 200million copies sold.

also, tbh, I get your point, but I seriously would not use random internet lists as a good measure of a character's iconicness.
 

cosmicB

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Most of iconic video game characters lists put Chief, but not Steve. I guess they are out of touch or have different vision?
A lot of iconic video game character lists are filled with generational blindspots, which includes gen z. There's a reason always online fans seem out of touch as most people aren't that.
 

Lionfranky

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A lot of iconic video game character lists are filled with generational blindspots, which includes gen z. There's a reason always online fans seem out of touch as most people aren't that.
I guess Donkey Kong is less iconic than Jonesy?
 

cosmicB

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I honestly can't even begin to predict who else could be in the pass. Not only have the characters we've gotten been all over the place, but the only real constant is them bringing something new to the table. We can't just look at longtime fan requests or crazy gaming icons, we have to consider playstyles and whatnot. If anything, that makes me assume a lot of characters that WON'T make it in regardless of how popular they are.

The only character that I'm sort of confident in is Dante. The circumstantial evidence we have, moveset potential, and my own personal bias tells me he's among the more likely characters, and I STILL have trouble going higher than 50% with him.
 

chocolatejr9

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I just realized something:

With Minecraft Earth getting a remix that makes it our second mobile game to be represented in Smash (first was Fire Emblem Heroes).

Does anyone else think there will be any other mobile game content, whether it be Nintendo or Non-Nintendo?
cough cough Dragalia Lost cough cough

Sorry, it's that time of year again...
 

cashregister9

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I just realized something:

With Minecraft Earth getting a remix that makes it our second mobile game to be represented in Smash (first was Fire Emblem Heroes).

Does anyone else think there will be any other mobile game content, whether it be Nintendo or Non-Nintendo?
Dragalia Lost could get a spirit event or even a full on character at this point
Granblue I could potentially see
Fate Grand Order is another one I could see some content from
 

Nesysli

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Crash Bandicoot & Hayabusa are the only two I hope make it in; I'd love Chrono but that's too much of a stretch.
Regardless after seeing Steve's move set today I do think most if not all of this pass's characters will have pretty imaginative, original move sets. Of course not all of them (like Crash for example) have to reinvent the wheel, but I think Min-Min & Steve set a good outliner of this current pass so far.
 

SKX31

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SKX31 SKX31 how big would you say LoL is in Japan? it's big pretty much everywhere else, esp Korea and China like you said. if it's not AS big in Japan, you think a LoL character would help bring more interest in Japan?
Okay, so I do have some recent Japanese stats (I'm calling in 3BitSaurus 3BitSaurus for this too for verification's sake and because he might know where to look for the Japanese server stats). He did have this to say re: the Japanese server overall:

Jokes aside, Japan does have an official League scene, but... the server is kinda memed as a bot farm for Korea, China and Taiwan. That's mostly due to PC culture being a bit weaker in Japan than elsewhere. In a way, Wild Rift for mobile and possibly the Switch would help a lot with that.
Memes can be a bit inaccurate because they're simplifications, but at the same time, that's not the most positive indictment, is it?

However, the stat I'm interested in for the sake of this argument is the LJL, the Japanese LoL League. Using the e-sports viewer tracker Escharts:

Summer 2018: 11 700 average viewers, 29 000 peak (Grand Finals)
Summer 2019: 18 500 average viewers, 43 000 peak (Grand Finals)
Summer 2020: 23 000 average viewers, 53 000 peak (Grand Finals)

Yes, a decent chunk of the viewership is likely to come outside Japan... but the general LoL crowd is going to be more interested in the Chinese (LPL) / Korean (LCK) leagues which air at the same time, or EU's (LEC) / NA's (LCS) respective leagues. The major LoL streams can easily top 100K+, especially when popular teams like Fnatic and TSM are involved.

The Japanese league is not considered major for any intents and purposes - it gets 1 spot for the World Championship alongside other "Wild Card" regions like LatAm, Russia and Oceania and are seeded into the Play-In (for the final Group Stage spots). (Most) Major regions like China and EU get 3-4 spots at Worlds, and most of those spots go to the proper Group Stage.

I'm not going to argue that the Japanese LoL scene has seen an explosion in numbers: the Japanese broadcast of the Korean league (LCK) peaked at 10K, and averaged around 5K before that peak. It's kind of clear that a Japanese LoL fandom exists... but it ain't big.

That's where 3BitSaurus' mention of a Wild Rift port becomes kind of an intriguing - suddenly LoL would be on consoles / mobiles and thus break one of the barriers of entry. It's not a guaranteed ticket to success - Overwatch has those ports already... but Overwatch is the kind of game that's natively PC. Not many prefer to play on console. Riot are seeking to mitigate this by making Wild Rift fit consoles / mobiles, and produce other LoL-related games that fit consoles better (like Riot's fighting game). It's going to be tough to call if that strategy suceeds or not.

As for more interest... maybe? There's a bit of potential cultural overlap in the character designs etc. Ahri would be recognizeable to Japanese audiences as a kitsune-esque being, while Yasuo is (kinda) a samurai-esque character. Etc. Although again, Overwatch (what with Genji / Hanzo being obviously Japanese) didn't become a bonafide success story in Japan. There's also the question of lingering stigma. Evil Trapezium 's search some month ago illustrated this:

I looked up League of Legends Japan because the first thing on my mind is how popular is it in Japan and the first video I found was why Japan dislikes League of Legends. Basically it's because mobile games exist so I'll just say a LoL rep is unlikely just from that.
Which is something to consider even when Wild Rift makes it into the App Stores - we're talking about making a more concerted effort in a region that has hiherto not really become MOBA hotbeds, far from their immidiate neighbors in China and Korea.

I would say that it's possible - a LoL character would raise eyebrows within Japan, that's for certain, but it'd bring a lot of controversy within the Japanese hardcore too, that's for sure. With "Pandering" likely to be one of the main points of contention (Trapezium's musing that it'd be something that " alienate the Japanese audience" is not unfounded IMHO). It would likely bring more interest within Japan too , especially amongst those less opinionated... but 3BitSaurus' observation that the Japanese server's memed as a bot farm is not going to exactly help that.

All in all, I'd argue that it could, but there are quite a few hindrances. Riot's additional games (like the LoL fighting game etc.) might actually help that, so I'd argue there's a chance.
 

TheBeastHimself

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I have not seen the presentation yet, but I do know about Travis. I'm glad he at least got something, and I hope is fans are happy that he at least makes an appearance in gaming's biggest crossover. It is a bummer though.

Also, after catching up on this thread, people can really suck, can't they? I'm sure you guys know what I'm referring to. What a ****
 

3BitSaurus

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Okay, so I do have some recent Japanese stats (I'm calling in 3BitSaurus 3BitSaurus for this too for verification's sake and because he might know where to look for the Japanese server stats). He did have this to say re: the Japanese server overall:



Memes can be a bit inaccurate because they're simplifications, but at the same time, that's not the most positive indictment, is it?

However, the stat I'm interested in for the sake of this argument is the LJL, the Japanese LoL League. Using the e-sports viewer tracker Escharts:

Summer 2018: 11 700 average viewers, 29 000 peak (Grand Finals)
Summer 2019: 18 500 average viewers, 43 000 peak (Grand Finals)
Summer 2020: 23 000 average viewers, 53 000 peak (Grand Finals)

Yes, a decent chunk of the viewership is likely to come outside Japan... but the general LoL crowd is going to be more interested in the Chinese (LPL) / Korean (LCK) leagues which air at the same time, or EU's (LEC) / NA's (LCS) respective leagues. The major LoL streams can easily top 100K+, especially when popular teams like Fnatic and TSM are involved.

The Japanese league is not considered major for any intents and purposes - it gets 1 spot for the World Championship alongside other "Wild Card" regions like LatAm, Russia and Oceania and are seeded into the Play-In (for the final Group Stage spots). (Most) Major regions like China and EU get 3-4 spots at Worlds, and most of those spots go to the proper Group Stage.

I'm not going to argue that the Japanese LoL scene has seen an explosion in numbers: the Japanese broadcast of the Korean league (LCK) peaked at 10K, and averaged around 5K before that peak. It's kind of clear that a Japanese LoL fandom exists... but it ain't big.

That's where 3BitSaurus' mention of a Wild Rift port becomes kind of an intriguing - suddenly LoL would be on consoles / mobiles and thus break one of the barriers of entry. It's not a guaranteed ticket to success - Overwatch has those ports already... but Overwatch is the kind of game that's natively PC. Not many prefer to play on console. Riot are seeking to mitigate this by making Wild Rift fit consoles / mobiles, and produce other LoL-related games that fit consoles better (like Riot's fighting game). It's going to be tough to call if that strategy suceeds or not.

As for more interest... maybe? There's a bit of potential cultural overlap in the character designs etc. Ahri would be recognizeable to Japanese audiences as a kitsune-esque being, while Yasuo is (kinda) a samurai-esque character. Etc. Although again, Overwatch (what with Genji / Hanzo being obviously Japanese) didn't become a bonafide success story in Japan. There's also the question of lingering stigma. Evil Trapezium 's search some month ago illustrated this:



Which is something to consider even when Wild Rift makes it into the App Stores - we're talking about making a more concerted effort in a region that has hiherto not really become MOBA hotbeds, far from their immidiate neighbors in China and Korea.

I would say that it's possible - a LoL character would raise eyebrows within Japan, that's for certain, but it'd bring a lot of controversy within the Japanese hardcore too, that's for sure. With "Pandering" likely to be one of the main points of contention (Trapezium's musing that it'd be something that " alienate the Japanese audience" is not unfounded IMHO). It would likely bring more interest within Japan too , especially amongst those less opinionated... but 3BitSaurus' observation that the Japanese server's memed as a bot farm is not going to exactly help that.

All in all, I'd argue that it could, but there are quite a few hindrances. Riot's additional games (like the LoL fighting game etc.) might actually help that, so I'd argue there's a chance.
I'd just like to add one thing to these observations: while the japanese server is among the smallest, it still has a good few hundred thousand players, by a 2017 estimate. I posted the source some time ago, but I'm on mobile and Smashboards' search feature isn't helping me in the slightest.

Point is: bot farm memes aside, a few hundred thousands is nothing to really scoff at - it's still arguably a bigger playerbase than several other western titles had in Japan. And as you mentioned, the scene is growing.

Question is whether or not Wild Rift will help with that.

EDIT: I'll be owing you the sauce for tomorrow. When I'm on PC and have more free time.
 
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Arcanir

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I just realized something:

With Minecraft Earth getting a remix that makes it our second mobile game to be represented in Smash (first was Fire Emblem Heroes).

Does anyone else think there will be any other mobile game content, whether it be Nintendo or Non-Nintendo?
Technically third as Simon's Spirit art is from Grimoire of Souls, but it's pretty minor.

And yeah, I think we will. The aforementioned Dragalia, Granblue and Fate/Grand Order all have reason to get some content in the game, and other major franchises that have candidates for Smash like Crash have mobile offerings that could get content that can come alongside them.
 

PLANTMAN

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All people are predicting now are predictable fighters like Rex, Geno, a Gen 8 Pokemon, Ryu Hayabusa, etc.
so I’m not allowed to make Rex & ryu hayabusa my Predictions?

then again I feel like People easily predict Pokémon & geno too much

mostly for Pokémon it isn’t really that easily to predict than they think, or call it a lock, or very very likley, or even inevitable
 

MooMew64

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Picture Of The Day

There was a problem fetching the tweet
It's still so heckin' weird to see what looks dead up just a Minecraft screenshot, but then there's Luigi in the righthand corner.

Sakurai and the team did an amazing job capturing Minecraft's aesthetic: If it wasn't for Luigi, you'd easily be able to use a screenshot like this and fool someone into thinking it's actually just a regular Minecraft screenshot.
 

ShrimpScampi

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I just realized something:

With Minecraft Earth getting a remix that makes it our second mobile game to be represented in Smash (first was Fire Emblem Heroes).

Does anyone else think there will be any other mobile game content, whether it be Nintendo or Non-Nintendo?
People have already mentioned this, but yeah, I think Dragalia Lost could easily get something. I'm a bit iffy on the likelihood of Euden as a fighter, but I guess it's a possibility. This morning I was actually thinking Euden might be a Swordfighter in today's Sakurai Presents on account of Dragalia's second anniversary, although that didn't end up happening. A Spirit event could also be doable if they want to capitalize on the second anniversary, and we had a tournament last week, so the timing would certainly work out.
 

7NATOR

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Euden is weird. Games like Astral Chain and Ring Fit got Spirit events 6 months after their release, but 2 years Dragalia Lost has been a thing and Zip. If we don't get a Spirit Event this week, I'm honestly thinking he's a Mii Costume or Playable, one or the other

In terms of Predictions Though I'm not sure. Right now, I'm Getting Confident That Shadow the Hedgehog will be Playable in this Pass, you'll guys will see
 

rychu_supadude

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I normally don't like reaction videos because most of them are staged or massively exaggerated
But I think this one is very real
"after two resident sleeper characters, we need something fire"

Well, I can tell this isn't worth my time

I wish I had the energy to be a streamer and make actually worthwhile content - funnily enough, Steve was the first reveal that I missed seeing live since... Little Mac, I think? I somehow totally avoided finding out that the reveal was coming until the trailer had already dropped.
 

PSIGuy

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When it comes to games without Spirits, remember that the Astral Chain spirit event was on the same day as the Byleth reveal, despite both being in the same position before that. Any character or game without spirits could easily be deconfirmed just as a new character is added, not long before. There's no spirit events for Dragalia Lost or XB2: Torna/XBDE: Future Connected but they can also happen at any time.
 

blackghost

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ok i tihnk some things need to be cleared up regarding sony microsoft and nintendo as companies.

the main thing to consider is what company is popular where. Microsoft has been attempting to get a foothold in japan for years but microsoft's issue is the games it pushes (FPS and sports, primarily american sports) arent big in japan. japan isnt too keen on FPS as a cultural thing and as a result of microsoft biggest games being FPS for years it never took there. Series like tales of and dragon quest and other RPGS series didnt even bother tor develop on or release on xbox for years leading to even more Japanese gamers never even considering an xbox. This has caused xbox to attempt to diversify its games library to expand more. Hence why they are making these huge purchases of dev teams like Bethesda and ninja theory. Working with nintnedo more also helps them learn about the Japanese market and smash provides a relatively cheap way for microsoft to get their IPs into Japan without having to make games they have little experience with.

in contrast sony has had a more diverse game library fr years now. They have exclusive RPGs, adveture games, indie games, and more. Sony has had a presence in japan for years so Nintendo is less of an opportunity and more of a business rival. Games that release on both xbox and playstation in japan really only have one choice. when you compare system sales and software sales of games that release on both platforms in japan playstation wins every time. Sony may not be as interested as microsoft is in playing ball with Nintendo. Sony's weakness as a company is its arrogance they have when they think they can do no wrong. some of it is earned the ps5 launch vs xbox series x launch is gonna go in their favor. but it also leads to choices like the spiderman standoff with disney.
 

Dinoman96

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The problem with Dragalia Lost is that it hasn't actually gotten a proper European release.

I think we're long gone from the days of Ness, Marth, Roy and Lucas (especially since we now know most of those characters basically got in by mistake). After Brawl, every newcomer they've added has had a full worldwide release. I just have a hard time imagining Sakurai showing Euden off and then saying "You can now play Dragalia Lost on mobile phones today...unless you live in Europe LOL".
 
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