smash speculation is mostly built around echo chambers
this is largely why no one talked about Terry or Byleth or even Min min really being in the game so far
people echo chamber omega hard with the same couple characters honestly. Like dante has become the next doomguy and were probably not going to get any but maybe one of the super talked about chars this pass
smash is p bad about discussing the same few picks then being blindsided when sakurai is like "yeah ive played more games than you lmao"
I actually disagree here, in terms of how characters are treated. I do agree that in some cases the Smash fanbase doesn't do well with new opinions or anything outside of popularity.
Pretty sure I've seen plenty more folks in this very thread say, "Dante isn't getting in" than people actually supporting Dante. What I find interesting is that Crash Bandicoot is a character who is "Talked about" but nobody says Crash Bandicoot isn't happening. Gee, I wonder why?
Wild how people are still only looking at Nintendo characters with promotional potential after getting 7 DLC characters where, at most, 2 could be said to be promoting anything.
The reason people are looking at characters as you're suggesting is that, when you look specifically at 1st parties, that's what we've gotten.
Now, I wouldn't say that any non-promotional 1st party can't get in- that would be a kinda weird thing to argue. But 3rd parties are inherently different compared to 1st parties. One is something coming directly from Nintendo, while the other is an entire universe that may or may not be close to Nintendo. To the mainstream, it's a bigger deal.
It's harder to argue that Min Min is as much of a promo pick as Corrin or Byleth (though I'd say she is to an extent) but to simply ignore that fact I think is a bit odd. Two of the 3 newcomer DLC picks are promotional, which I don't think is pure coincidence. I think it's also worth noting that when looking at 1st party DLC speculation, it was largely based on "popularity", which pointed to Waluigi, BWD, or Isaac. Spring Man was seen as a gate to further upgrades, and while Min Min opened things up for spirits, the jury is still out on Assist Trophies. If ATs are off the table, that shoots down Waluigi or Isaac, leaving us mainly picks like Rex or Bandanna Waddle Dee, neither of which is promotional.
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While I myself once though getting Joker insinuated an entirely 3rd party pass, I think there's a few things that should be considered before we suddenly go on with this assumption that the entire pass is 1st party because "Min Min sets the tone".
1) Did Joker set the tone for "3rd parties" or "unique gameplay ideas"? After Joker, each character continues that trend regardless of parent company- Min Min included.
2) I would actually argue that if Min Min was meant to get people into the hype of FP2...she didn't really do a great job. There's not much chatter to be had about FP2 outside of Smash forums, and I'd argue some folks have lost some interest based on the last few picks. Now, I myself enjoy Byleth and Min Min, but there are many out there that seek the "didn't see that coming" pick. Nintendo picks are more expected by the mainstream, believe it or not, but not as wanted.
3) Prior to the Min Min/ARMS announcement, much of fan speculation on 1st parties either didn't focus on ARMS whatsoever, and was on upgrades. I feel this is the blindspot with 1st parties- much of the conversation was on "popularity" and while Min Min is "popular" she wasn't quite a part of that whole discussion.
4) With how spaced out the reveals are thus far, it's obviously different from Volume 1. Joker set a tone, sure. But he was followed up with another character shortly after, and brought much of the conversation of "who's next?" in plenty of places. I may be wrong, but I'm not seeing the same buzz this time. It isn't to say that Min Min was a bad pick- far from it. Simply put, I think the spacing between picks has made the "first pick" a wee bit less important at this point when all it will take is a bombshell pick to bring all the attention back based on the time period between reveals.
If the vision of the pass was to do a bunch of first party upgrades, would it not be a clear, fan want like Waluigi or Isaac? I would argue it would be if we're going with the line of logic that "they're doing upgrades/1st parties that appeal to fans".
I'm not really in a position to make any predictions about Volume 2 and to be honest Nintendo has put me to sleep with how long the time seems between reveals. I'm starting back at school and have started Dark Souls, so I'm already busy. I personally believe we're getting at least 2 3rd party picks, and can see at least another first party pick or two. I think going to any particular extreme with this pass is getting ahead of ourselves, and I think ignoring precedent we like OR hate is a bad idea.
I do think the next pick will tell us more, but I think the only pattern to consider consistent throughout most of the DLC is "new and unique gameplay" which, surprise, doesn't narrow down the possibilities!