If anybody would appeal to the same fans as Banjo enough to be considered "Great Value Banjo", it's Geno, who is also a long-forgotten character massively desired by Smash fans, but a lot of people don't bring that up for some reason. While Banjo and Geno don't have any physical or home game similarites, they were in identical situations.
A bonus character should release after the Pass because it's be kinda... strange to have had this character in the pipeline outside the pass for a while. It'd be nice to get a discount but we won't get one. (As an aside, I bet you all a code for the character that it'd be a First Party character from a repped series who wouldn't need a stage [no Byleth/Edelgard, no Gen 8, no Elma/Rex, in addition to characters like Isaac and Scorpion being off the table], so somebody among the lines of Paper Mario, Bandana Waddle Dee, or Tingle could happen. But I'm going to believe the pass is IT. In fact, assuming the stage list is final (Mementos, Yggdrasil's Altar, Spiral Mountain, "N. Sanity Beach/Last Corridor/Tekkenland bc I don't know Tekken/Tower of Salvation", "Spencer Mansion/Primp Town/Minecraft World/Courtroom", airquotes for potential stages), that's what I imagine most future DLC will be like if we get any at all.)
By the way, if Hero doesn't count as Square, Joker doesn't count as SEGA, ergo Arle has an existent chance, and SEGA seems to be one of the more liberal third parties for Smash content nowadays anyway while Square is not and Microsoft has yet to be seen. But I'm going to drop this. Instead, Sly Cooper is a character with very little chance, but he would be the bee's knees.