I use the same reasoning I used for why I thought Geno being part of Mario anniversary was impossible: he simply doesn't fit what Nintendo is going for when it comes to the Super Mario series going forward. You can all claim that technically SMRPG isn't a different series or that his spirit has a mushroom icon and whatnot but that's the truth. At this point he's as much of a Mario character as King Harkinian is a Zelda character. I don't see Nintendo pulling a 180º and saying "You know that Smash tournament we announced during the Mario anniversary? Yeah this character from an RPG spin-off from 2 decades ago will be part of it too, competing against Mario, Luigi, Bowser and friends."
If Geno gets in then he'll get in on sheer fan demand and nothing more. Trying to bank on a Mario connection that Nintendo clearly isn't interested in is just foolish.
If they weren’t interested in tying him to the Mario series, which he is essentially a part of, wouldn’t the solution to that be to not add him to Smash at all?
I mean, he’s a Mario character. Super Mario RPG is a Mario game, so the Mario connection is obvious. To suggest he isn’t Mario in nature is like 1984 stuff, “Do not believe your eyes and ears” basically. It doesn’t matter if Nintendo doesn’t want Geno connected to Mario as a series, he just
is.
If they’re THAT hell-bent on not having that relationship seen in Smash, thenI assume they wouldn’t add him in the first place. But that might just be me.
EDIT: The Geno spirit already in Smash Ultimate uses the Mario series icon, so it’s pretty clear he’s considered a part of the Mario series. (OOF I missed this). That said, I think that simply shows Nintendo’s views, and suggesting otherwise goes directly against what we already have in the game. Either way it seems that if Geno were considered a Mario character (which Ultimate does) and they were going to include a DLC Mario character in a tourney that celebrates all of the Super Mario series characters, items, and stages, then I would think that’s exactly what they’re going to do, which suggests we aren’t getting a Mario DLC character.
At least based on the logic that it makes the most sense to have that character out in time if Nintendo is scheduling the celebration AND picking DLC characters. Otherwise it doesn’t really make much sense to me.