Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[N3ON]

Keep in mind that the development budget is inevitably lower, as fewer characters are being produced in a longer amount of time with FP2, (indicative of a smaller team), so it's possible that the acquisition portion of the budget has stayed the same. That remains to be seen.

Also remember that, while it'll always just be guesswork, the pedigree of the character may not always be the biggest factor in how much the character costs to license. For example, I would be surprised if a character like Pac-Man, who might be the most well-known character behind Mario, was among the most expensive to license. You also have to consider the company behind them, and how austere their licensing seems to be.

I mean Capcom licenses Ryu to pretty much anyone. They can't peddle him fast enough.

 

[Shroob]

Since we're all spitballing price ranges:

is in house, so he he cost a total of $0 to license.
is from a series that has been more niche until this point, so he probably wasn't particularly expensive relatively to anyone else.
has been in lower budget projects, so he's probably not that costly, although the sheer amount of content he brought might have bumped him up somewhere around the middle
don't have much going on so they may not be incredibly pricey either, but I dunno so I'll just ballpark mid price. It could be that they went with these two because they weren't as expensive as Master Chief and Steve.
Has been confirmed to be very expensive from his music alone.


Yoshi and Wario Land/Wario Ware are very much centered on their titular characters though and even have their own separate settings. Super Mario RPG is centered around Mario and friends and is still rooted in the Mushroom Kingdom, so I don't see why the game would be labeled as being from a separate series. The only reason they would do so is because Geno is 3rd party, but even then it'd be an odd choice. I can definitely see Geno getting his own victory theme, but not series categorization.

Besides, what would its emblem even be?

I think Emblem is easy, there's a lot of things they could pull from.


Geno is that odd spot where he's a Mario character... but he's 3rd party.

 

[Cosmic77]

who the **** is jigglypuff's rival? clefairy?

Pikachu.

 

[SKX31]

Ugh. I cannot stop reading this as Bowser's Furry.

There are already amazing Twitter edits:

pic.twitter.com/b0KMZ2alDX

— Ultima (@UltimaShadowX) September 3, 2020

I'd say that DLC lineups are like a salary cap in sports.

If you've got a budget of say, $15 million, it's unlikely that you're gonna get a lineup of 5 AAA picks all within that budget. That's why maybe you go for one "larger" character, and then 2 middle picks, and 2 small picks. Or maybe consistently middle of the pack.

It's just an example and really I'm sure the business of it is more nuanced than that...what we perceive as "big" picks may not be as "big" financially as we think.

I don't think Nintendo would deliberately kneecap the budget for character acquisition as much as they kneecap development stuff, which could be a reason as to why it's taking a longer time. They trim the staff which is why dev time is much longer, but they still have the budget to get the characters they want.

To be fair, it's not like they're going for stuff like Cloud or Dragon Quest anymore. I would be curious though to see what kinds of licensing costs there are for certain characters that people want.

Yeah, honestly I also think it'll be structured something like that because the dev budget is what it is.

That said, there's quite a lot of room for nuance here - it's certainly possible that some characters / IPs (regardless of how big they are) cost less than others due to general rights being much simpler to obtain or something else. I'll continue this answer with the next quote since it's also relevant:

Since we're all spitballing price ranges:

is in house, so he he cost a total of $0 to license.
is from a series that has been more niche until this point, so he probably wasn't particularly expensive relatively to anyone else.
has been in lower budget projects, so he's probably not that costly, although the sheer amount of content he brought might have bumped him up somewhere around the middle
don't have much going on so they may not be incredibly pricey either, but I dunno so I'll just ballpark mid price. It could be that they went with these two because they weren't as expensive as Master Chief and Steve.
Has been confirmed to be very expensive from his music alone.

(cont.)

The clearest example of this is Terry - albeit he's kind of low profile. What we know is that when a couple of Chinese companies (37 Games being the primary one) bought a controlling share (81,25 %) of SNK in 2015 they paid $63.5 million for the entire share of the company. I'm presuming this includes music rights etc. since KOF games made post-buyout included remixes of past tracks. And some, like KOF XIV's Soy Sauce for Geese remix, made it in alongside pre-buyout tracks. The 50 songs did catch Sakurai off guard, after all - he expected 10 to 20. And Terry included music and Spirits from SamSho and Metal Slug too, not just KOF-related franchises.

(Edited for cleanup.)

Thusly I'd argue that SNK was very likely the cheapest third party overall. Music and characters that are pretty cheap to license because the total package for an entire company wasn't that high to begin with.

 

[7NATOR]

This is why I keep telling everyone King Boo is a sleeper pick. I think it’s likely we will get some first party and maybe even a Mario rep in this pass. I love Waluigi, but if I’m being honest I think King Boo has better odds and is never really talked about. Luigi is one of the only first party protagonists left in the game that is missing his corresponding villain. I don’t think King Boo is on many people’s radars but if you think about it he would make a lot of sense in hindsight given his history in Luigis mansion and reignited relevancy through Supermario sunshine. Plus, we never got a spirit event or anything for LM3 did we? The only problem with King Boo though is I have no idea how a floating character would work in smash.. but then again a unique mechanic like that and making it work seems right up Sakurai’s alley.

Honestly I would agree he's a Sleeper Pick. I guess it's because if Geno or Waluigi don't get in, People are gonna be Salty. I've even seen the LM3 Spirits being missing being attributed to Waluigi over King Boo. I think I've even seen Gooligi getting more love as a bonus fighter as well

King Boo would definitely be unique as a "Ghostly" Type character that he his.

 

[Deleted member]

Since we're all spitballing price ranges:

is in house, so he he cost a total of $0 to license.
is from a series that has been more niche until this point, so he probably wasn't particularly expensive relatively to anyone else.
has been in lower budget projects, so he's probably not that costly, although the sheer amount of content he brought might have bumped him up somewhere around the middle
don't have much going on so they may not be incredibly pricey either, but I dunno so I'll just ballpark mid price. It could be that they went with these two because they weren't as expensive as Master Chief and Steve.
Has been confirmed to be very expensive from his music alone.

Now I see why Byleth was last. They probably used their budget on the four characters of the pack, and they didn't have much left. As a result, they said, "Hey, let's go with Byleth, because they are cheap to produce.".

Also probably costed just as much as .

 

[True Blue Warrior]

To people who grew up with him sure, but in the current gaming market he's more of a rising star.

If we are talking about the current gaming market, N. Sane Trilogy (10 million) sold better than the most recent DMC game (3.7 million) and Kingdom Hearts game (5 million). I really doubt Crash’s value as a brand is lower than Sora or Dante when it comes to licensing cost.

 

[Captain Fun]

That's how I feel.


People keep saying Geno would be a "Mario" character.... I just don't see it. If Geno gets in, I feel like it's almost a lock he gets a unique icon, and as this tournament shows, non-mainline Mario series icon characters need not apply, like Wario or Yoshi.

That would be weird considering his spirit uses the Super Mario series icon.

Not saying they wouldn’t change it though.

Will we get Waluigi or Geno within that time, or are they not getting in at all? What do we think?

I think Geno stands a pretty good chance, weirdly enough. Not so much for Waluigi.

 

[Karen6969]

Team Rocket, I would say. Also I added Pikachu there to my recent edit.

I was stupid for a moment there, I fixed it.

I see. For Pokémon as a whole I think you could argue that Mewtwo functions as a villain. The problem with Pokémon is that there isn’t a good “villain” to choose outside of Team X grunts, Team X leaders, Jesse, James, Meowth (?), or certain legendaries. I just don’t think there’s a clear choice for a villain for Pokémon.

 

[Deleted member]

I see. For Pokémon as a whole I think you could argue that Mewtwo functions as a villain.

Mewtwo isn't a villain at all. If anything, they try to protect nature in a Pokémon movie I saw a while back. They just despise humans.

You can also catch Mewtwo and make them fight for you.

 

[SNEKeater]

If we are talking about the current gaming market, N. Sane Trilogy (10 million) sold better than the most recent DMC game (3.7 million) and Kingdom Hearts game (5 million). I really doubt Crash’s value as a brand is lower than Sora or Dante when it comes to licensing cost.

It isn't that simple.
If you ask me I bet Sora would be more expensive than Crash. Knowing Activision I think they would be pleased to put Crash in Smash. That doesn't necessarily mean that they would license Crash for a low price, toh.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I think Emblem is easy, there's a lot of things they could pull from.

What does that have to do with the price of tea in china?

Pikachu.

TIL: Jigglypuff is taller than Pikachu.

(cont.)

The clearest example of this is Terry - albeit he's kind of low profile. What we know is that when a couple of Chinese companies (37 Games being the primary one) bought a controlling share (81,25 %) of SNK in 2015 they paid $63.5 million for the entire share. Let me repeat and emphasize: 81.25 % of SNK cost that (relatively) little. I don't see Armor Project nor Rareware going for $63.5 million. I'm presuming this includes music rights etc. since KOF games made post-buyout included remixes of past tracks. And some, like KOF XIV's Soy Sauce for Geese remix, made it in alongside pre-buyout tracks. The 50 songs did catch Sakurai off guard, after all - he expected 10 to 20. And Terry included music and Spirits from SamSho and Metal Slug too, not just KOF-related franchises.

Thusly I'd argue that SNK was very likely the cheapest third party overall.

Neat!

I see. For Pokémon as a whole I think you could argue that Mewtwo functions as a villain. The problem with Pokémon is that there isn’t a good “villain” to choose outside of Team X grunts, Team X leaders, Jesse, James, Meowth (?), or certain legendaries. I just don’t think there’s a clear choice for a villain for Pokémon.

Um, wut? Jessie & James are so iconic they were added to Pokémon Yellow (and Pokémon Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee as well iirc) and Giovanni is by far the most well known evil team boss.

Aside from maybe Lusamine, there isn't really much of a contest.

Mewtwo isn't a villain at all. If anything, they try to protect nature in a Pokémon movie I saw a while back. They just despise humans.

You can also catch Mewtwo and make them fight for you.

It's the villain of the first movie, but in the games it just kinda chills out in a cave.

 

[Karen6969]

I think Geno stands a pretty good chance, weirdly enough. Not so much for Waluigi.

I’m curious as to why you say this- I’m not saying you’re wrong, I’m just curious.

Unless you bring “insider” evidence into the conversation, I don’t see a reason that Geno should be chosen over Waluigi. I don’t want to debate Geno vs Waluigi, just what makes Geno likely and Waluigi unlikely as individuals

 

[True Blue Warrior]

It isn't that simple.
If you ask me I bet Sora would be more expensive than Crash. Knowing Activision I think they would be pleased to put Crash in Smash. That doesn't necessarily mean that they would license Crash for a low price, toh.

He is owned by Disney, so that was a factor I failed to take into consideration. My point still stands on Crash vs Dante.

 

[Will]

Look dude, I love Waluigi. I own the support thread. But the only instance of Waluigi getting in as DLC is if Sakurai (or Nintendo) thinks it was the best course of action for whatever reason. Only reason I can really think of is that Waluigi would ****ing sell like hotcakes.

 

[cosmicB]

We already have precedent with existing series icons being used for DLC characters thanks to Byleth (and Plant if you want to count it), but it's true Geno is sort of in a weird position on that front. The only non-mainline mainstay that uses the super mushroom icon is Daisy, an echo. It would be different if there was some Mario RPG representation already on the roster, but there isn't.

Not that it would be some super crazy rule break if Geno came with the super mushroom icon, but I think it's something to keep in mind.

 

[Karen6969]

Mewtwo isn't a villain at all. If anything, they try to protect nature in a Pokémon movie I saw a while back. They just despise humans.

You can also catch Mewtwo and make them fight for you.

He clones Pokémon in that movie and makes them fight against their inferior counterparts, he’s absolutely a villain until his redemption at the end. His cause might sound just from his perspective, but from the way the movie is portrayed Ash/Mew are protagonists which would make Mewtwo the antagonist.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Look dude, I love Waluigi. I own the support thread. But the only instance of Waluigi getting in as DLC is if Sakurai (or Nintendo) thinks it was the best course of action for whatever reason. Only reason I can really think of is that Waluigi would ****ing sell like hotcakes.

Reggie already admitted that Sakurai would be made aware of the overwhelming demand for Waluigi back in June 2018.

 

[Will]

He clones Pokémon in that movie and makes them fight against their inferior counterparts, he’s absolutely a villain until his redemption at the end. His cause might sound just from his perspective, but from the way the movie is portrayed Ash/Mew are protagonists which would make Mewtwo the antagonist.

Yeah, of an anime movie, not the games.

Mystery Dungeon is an iffy maybe.

 

[Deleted member]

He clones Pokémon in that movie and makes them fight against their inferior counterparts, he’s absolutely a villain until his redemption at the end. His cause might sound just from his perspective, but from the way the movie is portrayed Ash/Mew are protagonists which would make Mewtwo the antagonist.

It is Team Rocket who are the villains. They are the ones that created it, and abused it.

 

[Rikarte]

I mean in Smash 4, we got Cloud and Bayonetta pretty close to the end, and they are pretty iconic.

And whenever the audience shrinks or increases in Ultimate, there are still a LOT of players, and those players probably gave Nintendo a lot of money for the second DLC pack.

Fair, but keep in mind: Smash 4 's DLC cycle has been significantly shorter and out of it's 7 characters only 4 were newcomers. Granted Ultimate is a much bigger success so the budget should be higher too.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

He clones Pokémon in that movie and makes them fight against their inferior counterparts, he’s absolutely a villain until his redemption at the end. His cause might sound just from his perspective, but from the way the movie is portrayed Ash/Mew are protagonists which would make Mewtwo the antagonist.

I think you're referring to Pokémon: Mewtwo Strikes Back, and @ShinyLegendary is referring to Pokémon: The Movie Genesect. Those are two very different interpretations of the character.

It is Team Rocket who are the villains. They are the ones that created it, and abused it.

...or maybe not?

EDIT: Perhaps it was Detective Pikachu, that's also a really different interpretation though I dunno if that's what he is talking about.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

#スーパーマリオ35周年 に合わせて、特別な「オンラインチャレンジ」が開催決定！
ファイター、ステージ、アイテムをほぼスーパーマリオシリーズに限定し、大乱闘形式で実施します。11月～12月のどこかで開催を予定しておりますので、続報をお楽しみに！#スマブラSPhttps://t.co/dL02dit54o pic.twitter.com/6UTBm1mVHO

— 大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ【スマブラ公式】 (@SmashBrosJP) September 3, 2020

Mario tourney will be in November/December.

It'd be funny that if Waluigi and/or Birdo were in Smash, they'd be part of this tournament, but Yoshi and Wario wouldn't.

 

[Karen6969]

It is Team Rocket who are the villains. They are the ones that created it, and abused it.

Dr. Fuji created it, but I do believe he was funded by team rocket. After Mewtwo escapes from the lab his actions from there on out are his own, not team rocket’s.

 

[I.D.]

I don't know about character budget but I can only imagine what sort of Bamco skeleton crew Sakurai is working with now if two whole years are needed to create six characters and stages.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

It'd be funny that if Waluigi and/or Birdo were in Smash, they'd be part of this tournament, but Yoshi and Wario wouldn't.

For the former, the punchline is sadly that Nintendo hates Waluigi and won't let him join Wario in his side series.

 

[Deleted member]

Dr. Fuji created it, but I do believe he was funded by team rocket. After Mewtwo escapes from the lab his actions from there on out are his own, not team rocket’s.

That is what I was thinking. Team Rocket does play a heavy influence on Mewtwo in the original movie.

In some other movie where Mewtwo has a feminine voice, I believe Mewtwo goes against the evil team. I forgot.

Even then, that is an anime movie.

In the games, Mewtwo isn't the main antagonist. It is the opposing team.

 

[7NATOR]

He is owned by Disney, so that was a factor I failed to take into consideration. My point still stands on Crash vs Dante.

Yeah. I'm sure Crash costs much more than Dante.

at the least though, I'm sure Nintendo approached both Activision for Crash, and Capcom for Dante, now whether it's for Fighters remains to be seen though. I could safely assume that Mii Costumes, Spirits, etc cost much less than a Fighter. I won't say it's impossible to see Crash or Dante as Miis or spirits, especially Dante

 

[Karen6969]

For the former, the punchline is sadly that Nintendo hates Waluigi and won't let him join Wario in his side series.

I still think he was planned for SM64 DS and got wahblocked at the last second by someone internally

 

[TriggerX]

If we are talking about the current gaming market, N. Sane Trilogy (10 million) sold better than the most recent DMC game (3.7 million) and Kingdom Hearts game (5 million). I really doubt Crash’s value as a brand is lower than Sora or Dante when it comes to licensing cost.

If I had to make a guess Crash is still lower than Sora and Dante in terms of licensing costs.

First off it just depends on the company cuz I have a feeling Capcom is super easy to work with since they do a lot of collaborations.

Second- Sora has some ties with Disney that obviously make the brand look more attractive on a global scale.

As far as Crash goes he was extremely popular back in the day. And as another user mentioned his resurgence is pretty recent.

But the situation is similar to music where artists at the peak of their careers are able to charge a ton for a feature. Eventually their sound just isn’t as popular and as a result their price goes down.

However, just like Crash, someone like Lil Wayne is still considered a legend/iconic despite their decrease in value.

 

[Karen6969]

That is what I was thinking. Team Rocket does play a heavy influence on Mewtwo in the original movie.

In some other movie where Mewtwo has a feminine voice, I believe Mewtwo goes against the evil team. I forgot.

Even then, that is an anime movie.

In the games, Mewtwo isn't the main antagonist. It is the opposing team.

If I remember correctly in the games some of Pokédex entries allude to him having a savage heart/being created by “a certain scientist”. Still doesn’t make him a villain in the games but it’s interesting that the games do make references to the anime movie

edit- it’s the Sw/Sh Pokédex, haven’t looked at the others though

 

[Idon]

As far as I know the only antagonists we've gotten in a long while got in because of major fan demand and not their antagonistic nature.

 

[Shroob]

If I remember correctly in the games some of Pokédex entries allude to him having a savage heart/being created by “a certain scientist”. Still doesn’t make him a villain in the games but it’s interesting that the games do make references to the anime movie

edit- it’s the Sw/Sh Pokédex, haven’t looked at the others though

Mewtwo was made to basically serve as the optional "Postgame Hidden Boss" of Gen 1, like pretty much all RPGs have.

I'd argue that, technically speaking for the role he was supposed to fill, he's a "Villain", especially since Smash Mewtwo is basically the Movie Mewtwo.

 

[Deleted member]

Mewtwo was made to basically serve as the optional "Postgame Hidden Boss" of Gen 1, like pretty much all RPGs have.

I'd argue that, technically speaking for the role he was supposed to fill, he's a "Villain", especially since Smash Mewtwo is basically the Movie Mewtwo.

You are right on the first part.

However, there is a difference between "villain" and "antagonist".

Mewtwo isn't evil. They are even good in future movies. Mewtwo hates humans, sure, but he doesn't hate other Pokemon. Mewtwo is an antagonist for the player to overcome, but not a villain.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Not all the content that relates to Mario. Just the core series. Characters like Yoshi, Wario or Donkey Kong aren't in there.

Oh yeah, I get that. DK, Wario, and Yoshi have all their own thing and are considered separate.

In terms of Geno, however, he’s a character from a Mario game, just a Mario game made by a 3rd party. It seems to me that, if he’d be added, he’d have a Mushroom icon just like the other Mario characters.

That's how I feel.


People keep saying Geno would be a "Mario" character.... I just don't see it. If Geno gets in, I feel like it's almost a lock he gets a unique icon, and as this tournament shows, non-mainline Mario series icon characters need not apply, like Wario or Yoshi.

I don’t think it’s that crazy. Super Mario RPG isn’t a new series- it’s a Mario game, just not made by Nintendo.

Wario, Yoshi, and DK aren’t in the Mario Tournament because they have substantial content that coincides with their own series-Geno does not. He’s a character from a Mario game.

In my humble opinion, I think he’d have the Super Mario icon.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Mewtwo was made to basically serve as the optional "Postgame Hidden Boss" of Gen 1, like pretty much all RPGs have.

I'd argue that, technically speaking for the role he was supposed to fill, he's a "Villain", especially since Smash Mewtwo is basically the Movie Mewtwo.

You can be a boss without being a villain though. In the case of all of his in game appearances, he's just kinda there and not related to any sort of plot. I don't think it could rightfully be called a villain.

 

[Shroob]

You can be a boss without being a villain though. In the case of all of his in game appearances, he's just kinda there and not related to any sort of plot. I don't think it could rightfully be called a villain.

But then Mewtwo in Smash is quite literally based on the movie Mewtwo, who played the role of the villain. He went through a redemption arc, but he was very clearly an antagonist.

 

[Deleted member]

If we are talking about the Pokemon anime, I don't see how Mewtwo fits the role as the "main" villain for the Pokemon reps.

Who antagonises Ash, Pikachu, and his friends throughout the entire anime? Team Rocket.

Mewtwo only comes into conflict with Ash for some movies and maybe a few episodes.

 

[Teeb147]

Hey, just wondering if anyone knows something. Someone mentioned that before some dlc characters's release, there were some bugs that happened around the base characters that were used for the new ones.

Anybody know what those bugs were that showed up, and for which characters?

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Hey, just wondering if anyone knows something. Someone mentioned that before some dlc characters's release, there were some bugs that happened around the base characters that were used for the new ones.

Anybody know what those bugs were that showed up, and for which characters?

Bayonetta shortly before Min Min's reveal (outfit wouldn't unravel when attacking), Ness (his eyes disappear), Daisy (skirt clips short)

I THINK I've seen people report a glitch with Lucina's hair but I don't think it's one of those glitches, just a fluke