Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Cosmic77]

Not sure if anyone has tried yet, but the free Mario pins that you can get by completing missions on Nintendo's website? The last "mission" is purchasing Super Mario 3D All-Stars.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

It's why I can't help but raise eyebrows at people who are expecting a lineup of, say, Crash, Master Chief, Sora, Dante, and Kratos. I just can't see a world where Nintendo goes all in to that insane of a degree. I definitely see one of those characters within that type of tier making the cut, but two and especially more than two always feels like we're leaving the realms of reality.

Crash is a bit more like Banjo & Kazooie imo; fleeting mass recognition followed by falling off of the face of the Earth. Crash has had a successful resurgence as of late, but I don't think he's anywhere near the others you mentioned here. I think even when applying this (probably quite sound) logic, he and another of the characters you mentioned (and a few that you didn't) could still show up.

What character was a major money sink?

The one who wasn't added to the base game because their music was too expensive.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I'd say that DLC lineups are like a salary cap in sports.

If you've got a budget of say, $15 million, it's unlikely that you're gonna get a lineup of 5 AAA picks all within that budget. That's why maybe you go for one "larger" character, and then 2 middle picks, and 2 small picks. Or maybe consistently middle of the pack.

It's just an example and really I'm sure the business of it is more nuanced than that...what we perceive as "big" picks may not be as "big" financially as we think.

I don't think Nintendo would deliberately kneecap the budget for character acquisition as much as they kneecap development stuff, which could be a reason as to why it's taking a longer time. They trim the staff which is why dev time is much longer, but they still have the budget to get the characters they want.

To be fair, it's not like they're going for stuff like Cloud or Dragon Quest anymore. I would be curious though to see what kinds of licensing costs there are for certain characters that people want.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Also, Birdo will be Fighter #7

We haven’t gotten a pink newcomer yet.

not sure whether they thought that Yoshi was going to have a ton of spin-offs going forward, or what the situation was)

Super Mario World 2: Yoshi’s Island was successful. That’s pretty much it.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

What character was a major money sink?

These Dragon Ball Z characters idk I don't watch Dragon Ball.

 

[Deleted member]

The one who wasn't added to the base game because their music was too expensive.

Sorry if I sound dumb, but was it a Resident Evil character like Jill Valentine?

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Crash is a bit more like Banjo & Kazooie imo; fleeting mass recognition followed by falling off of the face of the Earth. Crash has had a successful resurgence as of late, but I don't think he's anywhere near the others you mentioned here.

Crash is absolutely more iconic than Dante and Sora.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

In terms of the Mario stuff today, I'm psyched! Everything looks amazing and I managed to pre-order a physical edition of 3D All-Stars through Best Buy.

One thing I've thought about (not set in stone obviously) was the Smash tournament that is entirely based around Mario stages, characters, and items. It's truly a Mario event and focuses on all of the content that relates to Mario in Smash.

With that in mind, I thought about something. Wouldn't it make the most sense to have a potential Mario character revealed for this event? I didn't expect it to be in a Mario presentation, so that's not what I mean. But rather, if it's celebrating "all of the Mario content" then wouldn't a new DLC be "Mario content"? Furthermore, Nintendo is involved with character selection AND planning for Mario's 35th. One would think they'd tie these things together.

That said, there's history of official material changing, like the infamous Box, so the actual image could change until then. But I do have to wonder (not saying it's for sure happening and one should fall in line to believe) if it's a make or break moment for Waluigi or Geno. The anniversary tourney is November-December, and the anniversary is until March.

Will we get Waluigi or Geno within that time, or are they not getting in at all? What do we think?

 

[Will]

What character was a major money sink?

i don't know, who's the one first-party character from a controversially overabundant represented series he's talking about

EDIT: im just joking btw i have no ****ing clue what he's on about, i'll guess terry? maybe?

 

[SirBillyBob]

"Man, why would Nintendo make their All-Star Mario collection a limited-release? That's so anti-consumer!"

Nintendo, a traditional company in a traditional region in a traditional country, who have already gotten rid of games previously on the Wii U:

 

[Schnee117]

"Man, why would Nintendo make their All-Star Mario collection a limited-release? That's so anti-consumer!"

Nintendo, a traditional company in a traditional region in a traditional country, who have already gotten rid of games previously on the Wii U:
View attachment 284420

Someone tell them that limiting the release won't actually make them as much money as they could if it was a normal release

 

[Deleted member]

Someone tell them that limiting the release won't actually make them as much money as they could if it was a normal release

This is why I am puzzled about all of this.

What Nintendo is doing hurts the consumer and their profits. If they keep the game for longer, they will get more money.

 

[ZelDan]

My one big hang-up with a Mario character being revealed along the Mario Smash tourney is, would we really have to wait all the way for November for our next DLC character (that is when the tourney takes place right)? And if we do get CP7 later this month or October would we really see CP8 in November?

 

[Shroob]

My one big hang-up with a Mario character being revealed along the Mario Smash tourney is, would we really have to wait all the way for November for our next DLC character (that is when the tourney takes place right)? And if we do get CP7 later this month or October would we really see CP8 in November?

At this point, CP7 is seeming kinda slim pickings.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Sorry if I sound dumb, but was it a Resident Evil character like Jill Valentine?

I was referring to Hero.

Crash is absolutely more iconic than Dante and Sora.

To people who grew up with him sure, but in the current gaming market he's more of a rising star. There's not really any indication that he'd be as expensive as, say, Master Chief or Hero.

 

[Cosmic77]

Someone tell them that limiting the release won't actually make them as much money as they could if it was a normal release

Stuff like this does work though. That's why stuff that's limited supply and limited edition sell out so quickly. People want what others can't have.

This isn't the first time they've done something like this for a Mario anniversary though. They did something similar with the 25th anniversary when they rereleased Super Mario All-Stars on the Wii. It was virtually impossible to find after a few weeks.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

So is The Legend of Zelda series but most people (myself included) separate things into a bin of True RPGs vs "RPGs"

Im sorry but

 

[7NATOR]

Dante shouldn't be that expensive from a character standpoint. from a moveset standpoint...probably very expensive

Crash I'm not sure. i think it's likely he's expensive, especially since he's not dead as of right now

Chief, Sora, and Kratos might be too expensive

 

[Deleted member]

I am going to speculate.

Joker and Hero probably costed a fortune.

Banjo & Kazooie and Terry most likely costed more than the first party DLC, but less than Joker and Hero.

Piranha Plant, Byleth, and Min Min were probably the least expensive to produce.

 

[I.D.]

One thing I've thought about (not set in stone obviously) was the Smash tournament that is entirely based around Mario stages, characters, and items. It's truly a Mario event and focuses on all of the content that relates to Mario in Smash.

Not all the content that relates to Mario. Just the core series. Characters like Yoshi, Wario or Donkey Kong aren't in there.

 

[cosmicB]

Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest were only as expensive as they were because there are a lot of hands in the pot and they're massive, multibillion dollar franchises. With the exception of KIngdom Hearts' obvious, mouse-shaped problems, I don't think any other Square series would suffer the same fate.

Bravely would very likely be a headache getting considering the music. I'm not sure how much of an issue Revo would be, but IIRC it's another rights spiderweb even if the guy himself is cool with it.

 

[7NATOR]

I am going to speculate.

Joker and Hero probably costed a fortune.

Banjo & Kazooie and Terry most likely costed more than the first party DLC, but less than Joker and Hero.

Piranha Plant, Byleth, and Min Min were probably the least expensive to produce.

I doubt Joker costed much. i bet even Banjo costed more

but i think Hero is most expensive by large, or at least medium sized gap

 

[Rie Sonomura]

my bets are that Hero and Banjo were the most expensive, with Banjo also belonging to Nintendo's competitor Microsoft. both were also I imagine the most profitable in return, with Hero being a hot download in Japan and Banjo for the West

Terry and Joker were probably a bit more expensive than PP, Byleth and Min Min but less than Hero and Banjo. They both also had a fair amount of profit in return probably, though less than Hero/Banjo. Terry would probably have performed well in Latin America and Joker would have brought non-Switch owners over to Switch. also, Terry had FIFTY songs so

PP/Byleth/Min Min are self explanatory, though Byleth may have been marginally more expensive (not by much, at most 5% more) due to Koei Tecmo having involvement in 3H

 

[Will]

but i think Hero is most expensive by large, or at least medium sized gap

all that for just 8 midis, too.

 

[Rikarte]

Well since Mario stuff is on everyone's mind, and also Geno, I've wanted to ask but...

If Geno really is FP7, Would that make people think that FP2 is more of a "Budget" Pass, even more than FP1, in that it might be more lower budget than FP1? If that's the case, would characters like Crash, Chief, etc cost too much money?

The budget for this one being lower definitely makes sense. Now I don't work at Nintendo so I don't know any numbers but I think it's reasonable to assume that a lot of players have jumped off by now since, regardless of who they might add, it's still the same game and people are bound to get bored of it. So with an audience that's almost guaranteed to be smaller why would they go out of their way to grab some big name third parties?
Considering that our first character is from ARMS, I'm predicting the second pass to feature a couple more characters who barely missed the mark. Rex and Geno come to mind, Monster Hunter too maybe...
But then again Nintendo doesn't seem to follow any patterns so it's impossible to tell what they're going for here, especially with just 1/6 characters revealed.

 

[Shroob]

Not all the content that relates to Mario. Just the core series. Characters like Yoshi, Wario or Donkey Kong aren't in there.

That's how I feel.


People keep saying Geno would be a "Mario" character.... I just don't see it. If Geno gets in, I feel like it's almost a lock he gets a unique icon, and as this tournament shows, non-mainline Mario series icon characters need not apply, like Wario or Yoshi.

 

[Karen6969]

budgeting and the fact that I don't think Sakurai would be predictable enough to make FP2 look like what thousands of smash fan prediction/dream rosters look like is why I doubt we'd have the rest of FP2 be nothing but the most speculated or popular video game characters. One or two maybe, but not ALL. I definitely expect to see another "Terry-esque" pick or picks, or another character that will fly under many peoples' radars but make complete sense in hindsight.

This is why I keep telling everyone King Boo is a sleeper pick. I think it’s likely we will get some first party and maybe even a Mario rep in this pass. I love Waluigi, but if I’m being honest I think King Boo has better odds and is never really talked about. Luigi is one of the only first party protagonists left in the game that is missing his corresponding villain. I don’t think King Boo is on many people’s radars but if you think about it he would make a lot of sense in hindsight given his history in Luigis mansion and reignited relevancy through Supermario sunshine. Plus, we never got a spirit event or anything for LM3 did we? The only problem with King Boo though is I have no idea how a floating character would work in smash.. but then again a unique mechanic like that and making it work seems right up Sakurai’s alley.

 

[Deleted member]

The budget for this one being lower definitely makes sense. Now I don't work at Nintendo so I don't know any numbers but I think it's reasonable to assume that a lot of players have jumped off by now since, regardless of who they might add, it's still the same game and people are bound to get bored of it. So with an audience that's almost guaranteed to be smaller why would they go out of their way to grab some big name third parties?
Considering that our first character is from ARMS, I'm predicting the second pass to feature a couple more characters who barely missed the mark. Rex and Geno come to mind, Monster Hunter too maybe...
But then again Nintendo doesn't seem to follow any patterns so it's impossible to tell what they're going for here, especially with just 1/6 characters revealed.

I mean in Smash 4, we got Cloud and Bayonetta pretty close to the end, and they are pretty iconic.

And whenever the audience shrinks or increases in Ultimate, there are still a LOT of players, and those players probably gave Nintendo a lot of money for the second DLC pack.

 

[RealLuigisWearPink]

What if the next DLC character is from a beloved old game, someone Mario is familiar with, and someone who’s been AWOL for many years...

Spoiler: He’s Here!

 

[TriggerX]

Someone tell them that limiting the release won't actually make them as much money as they could if it was a normal release

Idk, can’t say I agree with that. I personally won’t be buying it because I’d rather not replay the same game again for 50$.
But these kind of collections are usually targeted towards existing fans anyways. Meaning a limited run will create an urgency to purchase them that will probably result in more sales in the SHORT term.

I can only assume that Nintendo did enough research to realize that these types of ports probably only ever see a bulk of sales during 6 month release window anyways so this approach could be experimental.

 

[Deleted member]

Luigi is one of the only first party protagonists left in the game that is missing his corresponding villain.

You can argue Bowser is Luigi's rival.

 

[ZelDan]

What if the next DLC character is from a beloved old game, someone Mario is familiar with, and someone who’s been AWOL for many years...

Spoiler: He’s Here!

And he'd still look like his Super mario Mart sprite too, Finally giving us another G&W-esque character!

 

[Will]

What if the next DLC character is from a beloved old game, someone Mario is familiar with, and someone who’s been AWOL for many years...

Yes, it's all too clear to me now...

Stanley's finally coming home boys!!!

 

[Karen6969]

You can argue Bowser is Luigi's rival.

I suppose, but at the end of the day Bowser is Mario’s villain and King Boo is Luigi’s villain. That’s not to say that Mario and King Boo are fond of each other or that Luigi and Bowser are fond of each other, but when it comes to archenemies I think it’s pretty black and white.

 

[Deleted member]

Luigi is one of the only first party protagonists left in the game that is missing his corresponding villain.

Also to continue this point, , , , and would all be missing their corresponding villains, which is a third of the original roster.

I disagree with this reasoning on why King Boo is likely to be added.

 

[Will]

Also to continue this point, , , , and would all be missing their corresponding villains, which is a third of the original roster.

I disagree with this reasoning on why King Boo is likely to be added.

who the **** is jigglypuff's rival? clefairy?

 

[Deleted member]

Idk, can’t say I agree with that. I personally won’t be buying it because I’d rather not replay the same game again for 50$.
But these kind of collections are usually targeted towards existing fans anyways. Meaning a limited run will create an urgency to purchase them that will probably result in more sales in the SHORT term.

I can only assume that Nintendo did enough research to realize that these types of ports probably only ever see a bulk of sales during 6 month release window anyways so this approach could be experimental.

What about the many people that are working hard to save up for that game? What if more people start thinking about 3D Mario and want to get it, but it is not on the eshop? And there is always going to be a rush to pre-order a game pretty quickly. It is a confusing decision financially, and I think Nintendo's decision not only harms the consumer, but harms their profits. However, Nintendo is a multi-billion dollar corporation, so they won't care. >:I

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Since we're all spitballing price ranges:

is in house, so he he cost a total of $0 to license.
is from a series that has been more niche until this point, so he probably wasn't particularly expensive relatively to anyone else.
has been in lower budget projects, so he's probably not that costly, although the sheer amount of content he brought might have bumped him up somewhere around the middle
don't have much going on so they may not be incredibly pricey either, but I dunno so I'll just ballpark mid price. It could be that they went with these two because they weren't as expensive as Master Chief and Steve.
Has been confirmed to be very expensive from his music alone.

That's how I feel.


People keep saying Geno would be a "Mario" character.... I just don't see it. If Geno gets in, I feel like it's almost a lock he gets a unique icon, and as this tournament shows, non-mainline Mario series icon characters need not apply, like Wario or Yoshi.

Yoshi and Wario Land/Wario Ware are very much centered on their titular characters though and even have their own separate settings. Super Mario RPG is centered around Mario and friends and is still rooted in the Mushroom Kingdom, so I don't see why the game would be labeled as being from a separate series. The only reason they would do so is because Geno is 3rd party, but even then it'd be an odd choice. I can definitely see Geno getting his own victory theme, but not series categorization.

Besides, what would its emblem even be?

 

[Karen6969]

Also to continue this point, , , , and would all be missing their corresponding villains, which is a third of the original roster.

I disagree with this reasoning on why King Boo is likely to be added.

Only 2 of the ones you listed would make any sense though, Captain Falcon and Ness. For Yoshi, baby bowser is already effectively in the game through adult bowser. Idk what villain you would want for Jigglypuff nor is Jigglypuff a protagonist.

I would like to see porky and think he has a chance for the same reasoning as king boo.

black shadow would be cool but Nintendo forgot that F-zero exists so probably not happening

 

[Deleted member]

who the **** is jigglypuff's rival? clefairy?

Team Rocket, I would say. Also I added Pikachu there to my recent edit.

Only 2 of the ones you listed would make any sense though, Captain Falcon and Ness. For Yoshi, baby bowser is already effectively in the game through adult bowser. Idk what villain you would want for Jigglypuff nor is Jigglypuff a protagonist.

I was stupid for a moment there, I fixed it.