You know what would be an interesting change of place instead of listing our most wanted under a different guise every 3 pages in this thread?
How about you list your most wanted and argue against them. Let's see how well people can play devil's advocate; that might turn out pretty interesting.
Master Chief - Xbox & Halo are not popular in Japan. The FPS genre is not popular in Japan. Halo has not been on a Nintendo system & Master Chief’s only Nintendo appearance is as a skin in Minecraft. Speaking of Minecraft, if Nintendo goes back to Microsoft for a character then it’s probably for Steve. Minecraft is the biggest game of all-time & has had a major presence on the last 3 Nintendo systems. Why choose the face of a rival brand that’s never been on your systems instead of the face of the highest grossing game ever?
Dante - Has had very few Nintendo appearances until 2019. He’s the new “fake leak/leak bait” character. If Monster Hunter & Resident Evil couldn’t get a character then why would Devil May Cry? Capcom already has 3 characters, they’re not going to get another one in Ultimate.
Crash - Activision is an awful company & would probably be very demanding of Nintendo. Crash was a dead/bad series for about twice as long as it was alive/good. Crash’s comeback is very recent & only because of a couple remakes. Crash is another fake leak/leak bait character. Nintendo higher ups still might not be fond of Crash due to the crude anti-Mario commercials from the ‘90s. He would have a “basic” moveset & wouldn’t offer anything new to the roster.
Jill/Leon/Claire - Already a DLC spirit event, that 99% disconfirms Jill & Leon. Claire is the 4th protagonist & has been used the least with only 4 notable appearances, one being a remake. Capcom would choose their pet, Chris, instead of any of these 3. The RE characters’ move set would require real life firearms & probably wouldn’t be “flashy” enough. The RE series is too gory to be represented with a playable character.
2B - No notable Nintendo appearances. From a series that only just now had a breakout title; the first Nier is a game that bombed & has a mixed reception, not really the legacy that is seen often with Smash characters. Smash is for “good boys & girls”; they probably wouldn’t be able to change 2B’s design enough to make her a “good girl”. Why would they choose 2B over Geno or a Bravely Default character?
Fighters Pass 2 is primarily first party &/or small/niche third parties for all 5 of them.