Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Rie Sonomura]

I think the point is that they wouldn't give a company's involvement in Smash away like that if they were going to get a character later.

It'd be the equivalent of doing a Minecraft spirit event or something before Banjo got announced.

I would imagine existing companies are exceptions to the rule (Bandai Namco, Capcom, Square Enix etc) it would just deconfirm anyone from the spirited/costumed series in particular

so we ain’t getting anyone from Octopath, Trials of Mana, Tekken or Resident Evil

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

You know, Small Battlefield has got me thinking. Do you think there is a chance we'll see more Battlefield formations in the future? Like for example a Battlefield with only one platform or a battlefield with four platforms in the formation of the Galeem/Dharkon fights?

What kind of Battlefield formations do you want to see?

Pretty sure when you're on the logo of the game, you override the protagonist.

Same thing with Mr. Heihachi Mishima if he wasn't a Mii costume right now.

That's fair enough

 

[7NATOR]

I would imagine existing companies are exceptions to the rule (Bandai Namco, Capcom, Square Enix etc) it would just deconfirm anyone from the spirited/costumed series in particular

so we ain’t getting anyone from Octopath, Trials of Mana, Tekken or Resident Evil

Pretty much. I was thinking of potentially Already represented Companies being Deconfirmed for a character if they got a New DLC Costume (not Returning Costume from Smash 4) and it wasn't with a character, so in that Case Konami would be deconfirmed because we got the Goemon Mii Costume

But honesty there might be a grey area with that one. In Smash 4 we did get The Virtua Fighter Costumes with Ryu's Pack, but we still got Bayonetta in the end (and her pack came with Sonic)

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Pretty much. I was thinking of potentially Already represented Companies being Deconfirmed for a character if they got a New DLC Costume (not Returning Costume from Smash 4) and it wasn't with a character, so in that Case Konami would be deconfirmed because we got the Goemon Mii Costume

But honesty there might be a grey area with that one. In Smash 4 we did get The Virtua Fighter Costumes with Ryu's Pack, but we still got Bayonetta in the end (and her pack came with Sonic)

Square Enix hasn’t had the Geno or Chocobo costumes return yet so that could be a sliver of hope for Agnès/Neku/Lara or maybe even Geno himself (not counting on Geno tho if Heihachi’s costume returned)

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I would imagine existing companies are exceptions to the rule (Bandai Namco, Capcom, Square Enix etc) it would just deconfirm anyone from the spirited/costumed series in particular

so we ain’t getting anyone from Octopath, Trials of Mana, Tekken or Resident Evil

I don't think this would apply to any Spririts or Mii Costumes that were released before the second wave of DLC was chosen.

 

[7NATOR]

Square Enix hasn’t had the Geno or Chocobo costumes return yet so that could be a sliver of hope for Agnès/Neku/Lara or maybe even Geno himself (not counting on Geno tho if Heihachi’s costume returned)

True, Same thing with Namco (Lloyd, Gil) and Capcom (Two sets of Hunter Armor)

The thing with Heihachi is Weird. He does fit the Fighting game theme Min-Min set (especially since both come from 3D fighting games), and if Heihachi's costume had still turn out Missing I'd say that would have Guranteed a Namco character

but because his costume did return it's hard to tell. I got to go ahead and work more on my Mii Costume theory and try to find answers

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I don't think this would apply to any Spririts or Mii Costumes that were released before the second wave of DLC was chosen.

Octopath, ToM and Tekken were in the second wave tho

 

[Evil Trapezium]

I think Waluigi is going to get in by next Smash whether Geno arrives or not. I think at this point the outcry for Waluigi is pretty unmissable, even to Nintendo. And I think whatever kept him out so far, the waves of demand will cause them to relent.

I'm not sure if everyone realizes how demanded Waluigi has become for Smash in the circles slightly less invested than the online ones who bother about with characters significantly less well known than ol WAAA.

Waluigi's fan demand only got the response from Nintendo of America. Are we sure Nintendo of Japan acknowledged the outcry?

View attachment 282057

Someone is looking for a stage to play 8 Player Smash on.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Waluigi's fan demand only got the response from Nintendo of America. Are we sure Nintendo of Japan acknowledged the outcry?

I don't think I've ever seen Nintendo of Japan acknowledge any fan outcry...

 

[7NATOR]

I don't think I've ever seen Nintendo of Japan acknowledge any fan outcry...

They probably in the background... Just Watching and taking notes

 

[Guynamednelson]

Waluigi's fan demand only got the response from Nintendo of America. Are we sure Nintendo of Japan acknowledged the outcry?

Reggie said Sakurai would be aware of the outcry about Waluigi. Did he ever tell Sakurai? Or pass it on to some Nintendo of Japan guy who'd have an easier time talking to Sakurai?

 

[3BitSaurus]

That reminds me - that trend's been going on since at least Geese in Tekken 7, and it has continued. If I may awkwardly segue:

In fact, wasn't a Samsho character going to join HoK too? There were two images, one being "Samsho X HoK" and the other being "HoK x Samsho". Did they announce that one yet?

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

I mean

why show something normally only seen in WoL, let alone that you only see it when you’re several hours in?

idk, maybe,you know, to make a refrence to the stronger monsters from DQ XI Because the stronger monsters in act 2 look exactly like that. Darker versions of normal monsters with red eyes

i guess if we are going by this logic, I can say those shadow characters are hinting to Sora because they looked like Heartless

 

[chocolatejr9]

Reggie said Sakurai would be aware of the outcry about Waluigi. Did he ever tell Sakurai? Or pass it on to some Nintendo of Japan guy who'd have an easier time talking to Sakurai?

Even if that did happen, would NoJ even care? Waluigi isn't as popular in Japan as he is in the West.

 

[MooMew64]

I don't think I've ever seen Nintendo of Japan acknowledge any fan outcry...

They typically don't as long as their home market is happy. Nintendo looks to their home country of Japan first and everything else second most of the time.

Only time in recency that Nintendo of Japan employees acknowledged fan outcry was Kensuke Tanabe's interview about Paper Mario, where he pretty much acknowledged that TTYD fans weren't happy with the new direction.

Ridley never got an acknowledgement from anyone other than Sakurai before getting added, and K. Rool didn't receive an acknowledgement from either Nintendo or Sakurai before being added, so I'm not sure it matters too much if they make a public statement about Waluigi's AT backlash. If I had to hazard a guess, yes, I'm sure they are aware of it. It's more a matter of if they do something about it, which is another question entirely.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Even if that did happen, would NoJ even care? Waluigi isn't as popular in Japan as he is in the West.

Japan doesn't solely care about the biggest of the big. It's not like the West where you need that status to get all the merch, all the crossover appearances, all the esports money, etc.

 

[JCKirbs]

Reggie said Sakurai would be aware of the outcry about Waluigi. Did he ever tell Sakurai? Or pass it on to some Nintendo of Japan guy who'd have an easier time talking to Sakurai?

Waluigi is such a strange case to the point that I think he would be better off in the base roster of the next Smash game.

 

[Dalek_Kolt]

idk, maybe,you know, to make a refrence to the stronger monsters from DQ XI Because the stronger monsters in act 2 look exactly like that. Darker versions of normal monsters with red eyes

One of the most unintentionally hilarious things about that trailer was them including a Dark/Evil Ridley, it's just so redundant.

 

[PeridotGX]

One of the most unintentionally hilarious things about that trailer was them including a Dark/Evil Ridley, it's just so redundant.

You know how in the Civ games, Ghandi was so peaceful that making him any more peaceful would invert, making him genocidal? What if Dharkon Ridley is like that, but in reverse. He's a spy.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

IF we had a Galeem themed trailer, it should be Octoling cause it could be an Octo Expansion reference

The light blue can resemble the Sanitized Octarians or Hijacked Agent 3 with the glowing aqua blob on their face

 

[CrusherMania1592]

How would you guys feel about if they had a stage creation contest and whatever stage won they made an actual stage. The people submitting would have to use stage builder to make the stage.
How they would choose it would be Sakurai and team narrow the submissions down to 5 and then people vote for which one they like the most
The stage submissions would of course have to come from a existing game in smash.
3rd party submissions are allowed but of course if Sakurai and team wanted a certain stage they would have to talk to the 3rd party company.
Do u guys think this is a good idea?

Perfect excuse to create a long overdue Bowser's Castle stage

 

[SKX31]

View attachment 282057

Snake's favorite stage.

No one can escape his stupidly good down throw into up tilt confirm now.

In fact, wasn't a Samsho character going to join HoK too? There were two images, one being "Samsho X HoK" and the other being "HoK x Samsho". Did they announce that one yet?

Well, was it this you reffered to?

 

[Goombaic]

IF we had a Galeem themed trailer, it should be Octoling cause it could be an Octo Expansion reference

The light blue can resemble the Sanitized Octarians or Hijacked Agent 3 with the glowing aqua blob on their face

I also have a Galeem themed trailer idea

Spoiler: Hollow Knight Spoilers

 

[3BitSaurus]

Well, was it this you reffered to?

Yeah, that's the one. Also of note is that one image has a Samsho-esque bsckground, while the other has HoK's map.

I thought for sure that they would be revealed together. Or maybe they did and I'm just not aware.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I also have a Galeem themed trailer idea

Spoiler: Hollow Knight Spoilers

... i dont get it. maube for the best anyway

 

[Swamp Sensei]

One of the most unintentionally hilarious things about that trailer was them including a Dark/Evil Ridley, it's just so redundant.

That's less of a Dark/Evil Ridley and more of a Dharkon possessed Ridley.

 

[N3ON]

Agreed. I think Golden Sun is a great example of a series whose entries have always been released too early or too late to be seriously considered for Smash.
The first game was released shortly before Melee, the second about five years before Brawl, which featured three newcomers inspired by GBA games but all from established series. Then the third game was released late in life of the Nintendo DS.

I think Isaac's best chance to make the roster would have been if a Golden Sun game had been a launch title for either DS or 3DS, and sold about as well as, say, Xenoblade Chronicles.

Yeah, timing has never been in GS's favour. The first time Isaac could've been realistically included, Brawl, the competition edged him out. Which makes sense - back then there were still a lot of heavy hitters. Then when Dark Dawn was a thing, he was the most popular character (there are polls to prove as much), but that was in 09/10, which was an extremely unimportant time to hit your peak, and then by 2012 when 4 was getting built, there were other characters hitting their stride. It also doesn't help that DD didn't exactly reach the heights of the first two.

And then there's just been darkness since, which is funny, because, despite that, Isaac's popularity has only recently begun to get him noticed. The Isaac fans do still come back in force when they believe there's good reason to. I mean he did do quite well on the ballot.

But even now, if the GS revival rumours turn out to be true, it will again be horrible timing, Smash-wise. Unless Nintendo cared enough about the upcoming game to allocate a spot on the pass for him, which I doubt, his game is touching down before Ultimate even concludes. Who knows how long it'll be until the next Smash roster begins to take shape. It could, plausibly, be years away. So again, he'd either be too late or much too early to the scene.

The silver linings are one, any new GS will keep the fanbase kicking for many more years, considering that we're still running off the fumes of a totally average decade-old release. And two, the Switch is a very hospitable place for RPGs, and if something like Octopath can move over 2 million units, there's a chance a new GS game could be successful enough to spawn a follow-up more closely to the next Smash coming together.

Characters like Ridley, K. Rool, and Banjo only seemed to be considered and chosen because of sheer fan-demand over anything else, so I could only imagine that it would apply to certain other legacy characters as well.

Well it's basically the only realistic thing those fanbases have to hold on to.

Though I think people are mistaken to group third-parties with first when it comes to a lack of "relevancy" (ie. recency). That's never been as big a sticking point for non-Nintendo characters. I mean several of them haven't been particularly recently important when they were included. And like half don't even use their most recent look.

It's probably because Nintendo really doesn't have much to gain by especially focusing on recent third-parties like they do first-parties. I mean they could increase the sales of a third-party title here and there, and benefit from their cut, but that's not nearly as important as their own properties.

Though, fwiw, Geno struggles with actual literal relevancy, not just recency somehow posing as relevancy.

 

[DarthEnderX]

I figured that it would be a No, If they did do that, I ask Why?????

Because that's the development resources that could go towards adding a character people actually want to add a character LITERALLY nobody has ever heard of.

 

[7NATOR]

You know, what would make it easier to tell what characters could be in this pass is if we made some sort of Company Tier List.

Right now I'm working on updating Mii Costume theory, which could help in figuring out likelyhood of Companies getting characters and such. what i gathered was that

-Capcom, Square, and Namco are still gonna get content in this Pass, 100%. the question to ask is what are the chances of them getting upgraded content, and whether the amount of new content would be suitable for a Character pack or something

-Sega and Konami are maybes, though I would lean into Sega getting something new rather than Konami since Konami got a New Costume (Goemon) with no Character. Sega got Persona Costumes, but those came with Joker, otherwise the rest of the costumes they got have been returning

-Microsoft is hard to judge because it seems Sakurai and the team worked more with Rare than they did with Microsoft, so could the Absense of Microsoft content not have merit, it's hard to tell

-Arc Systems Works is probably not getting a character, but Could they still be getting Mii Costumes (Sol or Ragna) and why haven't they shown up, when Min-Min would have been a good time considering both come from fighting games

-Level-5, Falcom, and Spike chunsoft (Monokuma) are the Notable Japanese companies I could think of, but Spike is iffy since Dangorupa has not been on Nintendo consoles, but these Companies absence this late into the game is notable

-Something must have happened with Koei concerning Ryu. I need to analyze this further though


-Looking at the New Costumes not related to the character themselves, we have: Goemon, Team Rocket, Sans, Rabbids, Altair, Cuphead, Squid Sisters, and Vault Boy

-Goemon is Konami Costume. Goemon i believe had a Niche, but dedicated fanbase for Smash it would seem.

-Team Rocket is a Nintendo Costume. Pokemon was Almost about to come out around this time, but otherwise probably just cool Costume

-Sans and Cuphead are both Indies. Both are Western as well

-Rabbids, Altair, and Vault Boy are both Western Based Characters

-Squid Sisters is another Nintendo Costume. There is some speculation about a Splatoon Spinoff, so maybe that could factor, but it's also worth noting that Squid Sisters are already Assists in the game

-With the increase in Indie and Western content, we need to figure out where Other Western Companies like Activision/Blizzard, Netherrealm Studios/WB Games, Riot games (even though they are owned by Tencent), and perhaps others factor in. On the indie side, there's characters like Reimu, Hollow Knight, Travis, Gunvolt, Ori, Freddy, Hat Kid, etc

-Goemon shows that Fan-requests from a Particular company, even not in base game or Playable, can still get content and such. Could the same thing be true for companies like Sega, Capcom, Namco, and Square

-Squid Sisters shows NPC Characters can still get updated content, even if not Playable or even related to Playable character. The question is if this is only for Nintendo. If it's not, there are characters like Shovel Knight, Shantae, Alucard, Bomberman, and Shadow the Hedgehog, among other characters

That's all for now, I did just ramble, but I'm trying to keep Smash Hype Alive

 

[Rie Sonomura]

You know, what would make it easier to tell what characters could be in this pass is if we made some sort of Company Tier List.

Right now I'm working on updating Mii Costume theory, which could help in figuring out likelyhood of Companies getting characters and such. what i gathered was that

-Capcom, Square, and Namco are still gonna get content in this Pass, 100%. the question to ask is what are the chances of them getting upgraded content, and whether the amount of new content would be suitable for a Character pack or something

-Sega and Konami are maybes, though I would lean into Sega getting something new rather than Konami since Konami got a New Costume (Goemon) with no Character. Sega got Persona Costumes, but those came with Joker, otherwise the rest of the costumes they got have been returning

-Microsoft is hard to judge because it seems Sakurai and the team worked more with Rare than they did with Microsoft, so could the Absense of Microsoft content not have merit, it's hard to tell

-Arc Systems Works is probably not getting a character, but Could they still be getting Mii Costumes (Sol or Ragna) and why haven't they shown up, when Min-Min would have been a good time considering both come from fighting games

-Level-5, Falcom, and Spike chunsoft (Monokuma) are the Notable Japanese companies I could think of, but Spike is iffy since Dangorupa has not been on Nintendo consoles, but these Companies absence this late into the game is notable

-Something must have happened with Koei concerning Ryu. I need to analyze this further though


-Looking at the New Costumes not related to the character themselves, we have: Goemon, Team Rocket, Sans, Rabbids, Altair, Cuphead, Squid Sisters, and Vault Boy

-Goemon is Konami Costume. Goemon i believe had a Niche, but dedicated fanbase for Smash it would seem.

-Team Rocket is a Nintendo Costume. Pokemon was Almost about to come out around this time, but otherwise probably just cool Costume

-Sans and Cuphead are both Indies. Both are Western as well

-Rabbids, Altair, and Vault Boy are both Western Based Characters

-Squid Sisters is another Nintendo Costume. There is some speculation about a Splatoon Spinoff, so maybe that could factor, but it's also worth noting that Squid Sisters are already Assists in the game

-With the increase in Indie and Western content, we need to figure out where Other Western Companies like Activision/Blizzard, Netherrealm Studios/WB Games, Riot games (even though they are owned by Tencent), and perhaps others factor in. On the indie side, there's characters like Reimu, Hollow Knight, Travis, Gunvolt, Ori, Freddy, Hat Kid, etc

-Goemon shows that Fan-requests from a Particular company, even not in base game or Playable, can still get content and such. Could the same thing be true for companies like Sega, Capcom, Namco, and Square

-Squid Sisters shows NPC Characters can still get updated content, even if not Playable or even related to Playable character. The question is if this is only for Nintendo. If it's not, there are characters like Shovel Knight, Shantae, Alucard, Bomberman, and Shadow the Hedgehog, among other characters

That's all for now, I did just ramble, but I'm trying to keep Smash Hype Alive

Also Squid Sisters’s costumes had the OG Splatoon on the title card. They seem to be holding off on 2 content, so in theory Off The Hook costumes could happen with Octolings for example

 

[Garteam]

I think of the biggest general logic mistakes people make in Smash Speculation is assuming that, because a character got in that doesn't have a certain positive quality, that quality is now totally irrelevant even if there's evidence suggesting that's not the case. All these cases really show is that these aren't necessary criteria, but it's still likely beneficial to those who meet said criteria.

For example, I've seen countless people go "K. Rool and Banjo got in despite their last appearances being the late 2000's! Relevancy is totally... Irrelevant! Just ignore the numerous interviews where Sakurai clarifies that he oftens looks to new releases for characters and fighters like Byleth and Incineroar who were specifically added because their games were new."

Likewise, it's become a somewhat common position to hear "Cloud and Joker got in despite having a limited presence on Nintendo's consoles! Clearly, how strong a characters relationship and legacy is with Nintendo doesn't matter! Just ignore Sakurai's Brawl-era interviews where he claims that he often uses relevance to Nintendo is a criterion, the fact he considered a more Nintendo focused FF character like Terra or Bartz, and the fact that the vast majority of third parties we've gotten have a moderate to strong Nintendo legacy."

 

[Dalek_Kolt]

Likewise, it's become a somewhat common position to hear "Cloud and Joker got in despite having a limited presence on Nintendo's consoles! Clearly, how strong a characters relationship and legacy is with Nintendo doesn't matter! Just ignore Sakurai's Brawl-era interviews where he claims that he often relevance to Nintendo is a criterion, the fact he considered a more Nintendo focused FF character like Terra or Bartz, and the fact that the vast majority of third parties we've gotten have a moderate to strong Nintendo legacy."

I supported Black Mage for a while back during Smash 4, but I'm happy that Cloud made it. Nowadaus, if Square was willing to part with another characyer, I'd love to see our second Final Fantasy rep be Gilgamesh.

 

[7NATOR]

Also Squid Sisters’s costumes had the OG Splatoon on the title card. They seem to be holding off on 2 content, so in theory Off The Hook costumes could happen with Octolings for example

Yeah on the topic of Octolings, I would want to assume that they would have at Least added some Octoling Costumes at the least, like how they added Inkling Costumes in Smash 4. I don't know if Octolings is coming, but there might be merit to lack of 2 content besides Spirits in base game

I think of the biggest general logic mistakes people make in Smash Speculation is assuming that, because a character got in that doesn't have a certain positive quality, that quality is now totally irrelevant even if there's evidence suggesting that's not the case. All these cases really show is that these aren't necessary criteria, but it's still likely beneficial to those who meet said criteria.

For example, I've seen countless people go "K. Rool and Banjo got in despite their last appearances being the late 2000's! Relevancy is totally... Irrelevant! Just ignore the numerous interviews where Sakurai clarifies that he oftens looks to new releases for characters and fighters like Byleth and Incineroar who were specifically added because their games were new."

Likewise, it's become a somewhat common position to hear "Cloud and Joker got in despite having a limited presence on Nintendo's consoles! Clearly, how strong a characters relationship and legacy is with Nintendo doesn't matter! Just ignore Sakurai's Brawl-era interviews where he claims that he often relevance to Nintendo is a criterion, the fact he considered a more Nintendo focused FF character like Terra or Bartz, and the fact that the vast majority of third parties we've gotten have a moderate to strong Nintendo legacy."

I'd agree. I guess it's more like those characters got in Spite of all the issues they had or lack of qualities, not that the issues or Qualities don't matter. It's all about balance at the end of the day, and not only 1 characters's own merits, but also how they stack up against other characters that may have certain qualities or issues that character doesn't have

 

[Deleted member]

Just asking off topic, why was SmashBoards on Maintenance anyway?

Updates to various things, like the Like System presumably.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Yeah on the topic of Octolings, I would want to assume that they would have at Least added some Octoling Costumes at the least, like how they added Inkling Costumes in Smash 4. I don't know if Octolings is coming, but there might be merit to lack of 2 content besides Spirits in base game



I'd agree. I guess it's more like those characters got in Spite of all the issues they had or lack of qualities, not that the issues or Qualities don't matter. It's all about balance at the end of the day, and not only 1 characters's own merits, but also how they stack up against other characters that may have certain qualities or issues that character doesn't have

there's a few music and spirits from Base 2 (no Tidal Rush, Spicy Calamari, or any Salmon run related content) and only 2 Spirits from the Octo Expansion. NO OE MUSIC. hmmmm

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

there's a few music and spirits from Base 2 (no Tidal Rush, Spicy Calamari, or any Salmon run related content) and only 2 Spirits from the Octo Expansion. NO OE MUSIC. hmmmm

I need Shark Bytes in Smash ASAP

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I need Shark Bytes in Smash ASAP

you spelled Fly Octo Fly wrong

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

I supported Black Mage for a while back during Smash 4, but I'm happy that Cloud made it. Nowadaus, if Square was willing to part with another characyer, I'd love to see our second Final Fantasy rep be Gilgamesh.

Gilgamesh in Smash should definitely have copies of the Buster Sword, Master Sword, Falchion, and Galaxia. And then tell everyone that their proper versions are inferior to his.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

you spelled Fly Octo Fly wrong

Why can't we have both?

 

[Hadokeyblade]

True, Same thing with Namco (Lloyd, Gil) and Capcom (Two sets of Hunter Armor)

This is how Yuri Lowell could still win