Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Garteam]

I don’t see Bandana Waddle Dee getting in over Dixie Kong. While both are highly requested, I feel like Dixie is way more popular and recognizable and you can do a lot with her moveset. I also feel like it would be a major disservice to her if she was a Diddy Echo. I don’t see it happening. Her unique hair, and the fact that she can take flight and attack with it makes her more of a standout.

Bandana Waddle Dee is a bit more niche, and while he seems to be playing the role of the fourth musketeer in Kirby games, I just don’t see him getting in, unless they do a Fighter’s Pass 3, but Ifeel like Dixie should come before Bandana Dee.

Having said that, my prediction for the final five FP2 characters are Hayabusa, Geno, Dante, Crash and either Rex or Dixie Kong.

I disagree about Dixie being more popular than Bandana Waddle Dee. Bandana Dee was absolutely massive back in the day, especially in Japan. I think people forget just how well he did on fan ballots. If K. Rool and Ridley were S-tier, he'd would be a mid to high A-tier. Even nowadays, while his support has somewhat slowed down, he was still the highest placing first party on Source Gaming's Smash Poll.

Dixie has had the misfortune of having to compete against K. Rool for most of her time as a Smash candidate. That's really harmed her, as she basically had wait until about 2 years ago before she could build strong support for a Smash inclusion.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I don’t see Bandana Waddle Dee getting in over Dixie Kong. While both are highly requested, I feel like Dixie is way more popular and recognizable and you can do a lot with her moveset. I also feel like it would be a major disservice to her if she was a Diddy Echo. I don’t see it happening. Her unique hair, and the fact that she can take flight and attack with it makes her more of a standout.

Bandana Waddle Dee is a bit more niche, and while he seems to be playing the role of the fourth musketeer in Kirby games, I just don’t see him getting in, unless they do a Fighter’s Pass 3, but Ifeel like Dixie should come before Bandana Dee.

Having said that, my prediction for the final five FP2 characters are Hayabusa, Geno, Dante, Crash and either Rex or Dixie Kong.

I disagree with a lot of these points, but I don't think it's worth arguing about since neither character has any real chance at being DLC unless there's going to be a new Kirby or Donkey Kong game next year and they want to promote it. Both are pretty much a fat chance.

 

[osby]

I disagree about Dixie being more popular than Bandana Waddle Dee. Bandana Dee was absolutely massive back in the day, especially in Japan. I think people forget just how well he did on fan ballots. If K. Rool and Ridley were S-tier, he'd would be a mid to high A-tier. Even nowadays, while his support has somewhat slowed down, he was still the highest placing first party on Source Gaming's Smash Poll.

Dixie has had the misfortune of having to compete against K. Rool for most of her time as a Smash candidate. That's really harmed her, as she basically had wait until about 2 years ago before she could build strong support for a Smash inclusion.

Hell, even after K.Rool got in, Rare fans were more interested in Banjo than Dixie. And honestly, his inclusion felt like it was more beneficial for Crash than her.

I have no doubt that she's still one of the most wanted characters among Smash fandom but I have to question just how many people think her as their top priority.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Hell, even after K.Rool got in, Rare fans were more interested in Banjo than Dixie. And honestly, his inclusion felt like it was more beneficial for Crash than her.

I have no doubt that she's still one of the most wanted characters among Smash fandom but I have to question just how many people think her as their top priority.

Well if it helps I didn't see any King K. Rool support before the ballot, but I did see good bit of Dixie Kong support.

EDIT: Nowadays people don't talk about her as much though.

 

[zumaddy]

Can't say I think either are going to make it for this DLC specifically, but there's always whatever Smash 6 ends up being.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

I don't think popularity and recognizability have much to do with which Nintendo characters get into Smash as DLC.

It's a major factor (hence Mr-Face-of-the-PS1 Cloud getting in over more Nintendo linked FF characters) but it's not the be all and end all.

What we don't know right now is if there was any difference in how the second Fighter's pass was sorted as FP1 was picked from a shortlist of 3rd parties with a token Nintendo character to absorb the 5 for 4 deal. For all we know the current pass will all be Nintendo characters with the 3rd parties being all Mii costumes.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I don’t doubt that Bandanna Waddle Dee is popular among Smash fans, but it’s a popularity that isn’t even close to support like Ridley or K.Rool, both of which became essentially a community wide movement.

For $5.99 a pack, I’m not sure that I see BWD happening, but eh.The idea doesn‘t excite me all that much but I’m sure somebody would be.

 

[Guynamednelson]

But if you want an answer that doesn't involve an hour long video then a live service game, or games as a service as it is known, is a revenue model where a game is monetized heavily after it's initial sale, so the game is continuously updated but as a downside it gets filled with micro-transactions or/and it uses subscription models. Think of something like Destiny as an example of a game like that

The way Fortnite and Modern Warfare 2019 do it, in which every new level/gameplay related thing is free and you just gotta pay for cosmetics, is alright, but it's dependent on the idea that cosmetic DLC sells the most. Which in Smash I don't think is the case outside of Sans overshadowing Terry.

 

[Teeb147]

Bandana Dee should get in over Dixie at least, DK got a rep, but kirby didn't ;O

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I don’t doubt that Bandanna Waddle Dee is popular among Smash fans, but it’s a popularity that isn’t even close to support like Ridley or K.Rool, both of which became essentially a community wide movement.

Thankfully nobody was really arguing that it was. In fact, it's Dixie Kong who's being compared to King K. Rool (which makes more sense, as they're from the same series).

 

[SNEKeater]

The only way this could get better is if SMTV featured Bayonetta from the Bayonetta series.

I seriously think this could happen. I mean both are Sega, and besides that, Bayonetta 3 is also a Switch exclusive game as far as we know.

It would be really cool if happens, that's for sure.

 

[Garteam]

For $5.99 a pack, I’m not sure that I see BWD happening, but eh.The idea doesn‘t excite me all that much but I’m sure somebody would be.

If Nintendo didn't see any issue with selling Corrin solo for $4.99 or Min Min's pack for $5.99, Regardless of whether or not Bandana Dee could justify his price point, I don't think its an issue. I think Nintendo has caught on that most DLC characters are going to sell regardless of who they are or how iconic they are to a general audience.

 

[Deleted member]

$5.99 for a new, unique character, a new stage, and new music is pretty acceptable compared to other franchises where $5.99 would be a character only. Or in any FPS with paid DLC where its $5.99 or more for a simple skin.

 

[Opossum]

Well if it helps I didn't see any King K. Rool support before the ballot, but I did see good bit of Dixie Kong support.

EDIT: Nowadays people don't talk about her as much though.

?
Legitimately don't know where you were looking, then. King K. Rool has been like, the second most wanted Nintendo character after Ridley ever since the post-Brawl pre-4 era.

 

[AceAttorney9000]

If Nintendo didn't see any issue with selling Corrin solo for $4.99 or Min Min's pack for $5.99, Regardless of whether or not Bandana Dee could justify his price point, I don't think its an issue. I think Nintendo has caught on that most DLC characters are going to sell regardless of who they are or how iconic they are to a general audience.

The argument that characters like Dixie Kong and Bandana Waddle Dee wouldn't be worth selling as DLC falls apart when you remember that a certain first-party fighter is already being sold as DLC.

Yes, it was available for free for a certain period of time.
Yes, it was most likely intended to be in the base game.
... that still doesn't change that, at the end of the day, Piranha Plant, a generic Mario enemy that wasn't even thought of as a viable Smash fighter, is currently being sold as DLC (and not even with the regular contents of a Fighter Pack, you have to pay 4.99 just for the fighter itself) and wasn't just left completely unused like Brawl's Forbidden Seven when base roster inclusion wasn't possible. If Nintendo and the developers have no problem with that, then I doubt they'd have any problems with selling Dixie Kong, Bandana Waddle Dee, or any other notable first-party characters as part of the Fighters Pass with the usual works and price.

 

[M@R!3]

Should Ultimate turn into live service game?

I'm sorry if this topic was made before. I briefly searched, but couldn't find it. If there is one, let me know. I am saying this because more and more games are switching to live service games that developers constantly update focused game. Destiny, GTA Online, PUBG, Fortnite, LoL, etc... I'm...

smashboards.com

Do you guys think Ultimate should turn into live service game in line with Fortnite, PUBG, etc? This way, they don't have to worry about cutting roster. People can keep dreaming about their most wanted as Ultimate will keep going on and on.

I'm not a big fan of the "Games as a Service" model for multiple reasons. Yeah, it can have the benefit of giving consumers much more content in the long term, but all of that comes with some pretty big drawbacks. Micro-transactions, internet connection requirements, monetization focused game design, volatile development conditions, and an expiration date for all of the content the game provides are problems that come with the service model.

The lack of stability, and uncertain long term value makes spending money on any such game too much of a risk.

 

[MooMew64]

If I'm being completely honest, the Games as a Service model doesn't bother me when it's done right. I would not mind seeing games like Smash Bros, Splatoon, Animal Crossing, or Mario Kart venture down these paths given the pricing is appealing and content is valuable to me.

Making games is expensive and getting a constant pipeline of quality content means developers need to keep getting paid. I would have more than happily paid an annual fee to keep constant Splatoon content coming, so if there comes a time where Nintendo wants to adopt a "Battle Pass" method of delivering content? As long the content is up to the quality of what we're receiving now, I can't say I'd complain: If it's a game I'll be playing over the long term with potentially hundreds of hours of entertainment over the years, I feel like I would be able to get my monies worth out of a Smash Bros. service.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Well if it helps I didn't see any King K. Rool support before the ballot, but I did see good bit of Dixie Kong support.

EDIT: Nowadays people don't talk about her as much though.

In other news, the Dixie Kong thread finally surpassed the Rool Social (formerly support) thread in terms of replies and views several weeks ago.
Obviously because Rool has already been a character in the game for a while now, but a milestone nonetheless for the Pink Berets.

 

[Perkilator]

Smash Dojo: You must recover!
: sad Little Mac noises

You know, that reminds me; there was a page on Smash Dojo dedicated to boss strategies, and it makes me sad that there hasn’t at least been unofficial ones for Ultimate.

 

[SKX31]

The argument that characters like Dixie Kong and Bandana Waddle Dee wouldn't be worth selling as DLC falls apart when you remember that a certain first-party fighter is already being sold as DLC.

Yes, it was available for free for a certain period of time.
Yes, it was most likely intended to be in the base game.
... that still doesn't change that, at the end of the day, Piranha Plant, a generic Mario enemy that wasn't even thought of as a viable Smash fighter, is currently being sold as DLC (and not even with the regular contents of a Fighter Pack, you have to pay 4.99 just for the fighter itself) and wasn't just left completely unused like Brawl's Forbidden Seven when base roster inclusion wasn't possible. If Nintendo and the developers have no problem with that, then I doubt they'd have any problems with selling Dixie Kong, Bandana Waddle Dee, or any other notable first-party characters as part of the Fighters Pass with the usual works and price.

Then again, as long as Plant's an anomaly we can't really use it as a measuring stick for how often Nintendo will go for say BWD or Dixie over lets say a promotional character. And yes, I'm counting as a promotional character since the original announcement was accompanied with a free to play week and an Online Open for ARMS - effectively signalling a restart in terms of official support for that game.

The argument over "promotional / fan favorite / whatever else" is not a binary thing, that I agree with you. But DLC slots are not infinite (unless you theoretically keep a live service game going forever, but that's another issue entirely). And since Nintendo's the ones choosing the DLC the fact that they've chosen promotional characters as DLC (including once in FP1 and FP2 so far) becomes important. This does not mean that Nintendo's disinterested in picking say BWD or Dixie, but Nintendo has a track record of preferring promotional DLC so far. Could this change? Yes, but there needs to be concrete proof of additional non-promotional characters from within Nintendo for that to happen. [Okay, that phrase was awkwardly worded, but still.]

It's further complicated by Smash 4's DLC - sure, it brought back veterans who weren't promotional, but they were veterans and thus Sakurai already had a blueprint to go from. Those aren't clearcut examples either way, since they could point to Nintendo being open to non-promotional characters... but they also could point to the non-promotional characters coming with caveats. While one could likewise point to the promotional characters as having caveats to them (moveset for Corrin and Byleth and involvement from series' creator for Min Min) - well, we've gotten three of them. EDIT: And the non-promotional DLC characters have been three veterans and Plant so far, which is why I count Plant as an anomaly unless that changes.

Characters like BWD and Dixie are not impossible, no. But I'm personally in the "I believe it when I see it" camp.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

?
Legitimately don't know where you were looking, then. King K. Rool has been like, the second most wanted Nintendo character after Ridley ever since the post-Brawl pre-4 era.

Hm...
I was checking a few things, and it looks like I was only lurking as a guest for most of Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3Ds/Wii U's speculation cycle and wasn't an active member until after Mewtwo was revealed. Since I wasn't posting back then it could easily be that I wasn't around nearly as often as I had originally thought, which means I did see could mostly have been about the recently revealed characters or the ESRB leak. So I guess at no surprise to anyone but me I seem to be a terribly popularity barometer for stuff before then.

Still though, I wouldn't see enough King K. Rool support for me to register it as a character people wanted for those 2ish months that I was definitely active for until the ballot hit. After which, the entire thread basically became the K. Rool show, guest starring a few other characters like Shantae, Inkling, and Geno.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Honestly, I have a bigger problem with the way developers have implemented Service models than I do with the idea of Service itself.

I actually think games like Smash and Mario Kart could benefit from a few elements of that - with one key advantage being that these games have substantial single player content. So if you don't want to pay extra for more content, you could simply choose not to. But for the long term, it could be a great way to get more crazy stuff and fan requests into the games. Plus a lot of people here seem open to the idea of costumes for characters.

There is the downside of needing to have a team that commits for years, which is the biggest reason why I don't see it happening. But as far as concerns with monetization go... I dunno, I've played games like League and Overwatch for a few years and never spent a single cent. You can pretty much get new stuff just by playing the game, which is what I imagine would be done if Smash or MK became live services.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Guess who’s back

back again

There was a problem fetching the tweet

we getting news soon for sure

 

[SpectreJordan]

I think Bandana Dee & Dixie will be saved for the base roster of the next Smash. They’re probably the two most popular Nintendo picks right now, but they’re not on the same level as K Rool/Ridley/Banjo so I don’t think Nintendo/Sakurai would see any urgency in picking them.

They’d be perfect marketing tools for the next game though. “Yes, we had to cut some characters. But here’s two highly requested characters to make up for it!” Throw in Lloyd, Skull Kid, Waluigi & maybe Rex (if he’s not in FP2) then you’d have a lot of happy Nintendo fans.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Fans: Selling 1st Parties like Dee and Dixie for $5.99 would be a rip off and Nintendo would never do that.

Nintendo: Here's 1-2-Switch, a borderline shovelware game significantly worse than Wii Sports and Nintendo Land that is not only NOT being bundled with the console, but one that we're going to charge $60 for at launch (and will still be selling for $50 on the Eshop 3 years later). Also you have to pay $80 for Joy Cons that drift easily and are much less durable than our previous controllers. And you have to pay $60 for all of our Wii U ports of 5+ year old games as well, even when they originally sold cheaper than that on their initial console.

 

[Cosmic77]

Are we really worried about BWD and Dixie selling well when Nintendo felt comfortable enough to add Byleth despite "too many FE characters" being a common complaint since Corrin?

Setting likeliness aside, I don't see any harm in making BWD or Dixie a character in this pass. Both are fairly popular, both are fairly iconic, and it's clear that both characters will likely continue to make appearances in the immediate future. I'd imagine both would sell fairly well, though I doubt Nintendo is genuinely concerned about that. Like others have pointed out, I think Nintendo has figured out by now that they can add any character, regardless of how much said character is loved or hated, and still make a lot of money.

 

[MooMew64]

Didn't Kelios leave and pretty much tell us all to bug off 'cause he got harassed by the crazy side of the fandom?

Why come back now? He made it clear he wanted nothing to do with us anymore.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Guess who’s back

back again

There was a problem fetching the tweet

we getting news soon for sure

gasp He survived the Nintendo fanboys! Truly a god among men...

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

And yes, I'm counting as a promotional character since the original announcement was accompanied with a free to play week and an Online Open for ARMS - effectively signalling a restart in terms of official support for that game.

I'm not entirely sure she counts, even with the free to play week. Like, they definitely took advantage of her inclusion with the free trial, but unless we see some sort of update or sequel to ARMS, they're not really gonna do much for the game sales wise. If we do end up getting an ARMS 2, then I'll believe that she was probably supposed to support that, but as far as a promotional character for ARMS goes, she's too little too late and I think Nintnedo would know that.

Are we really worried about BWD and Dixie selling well when Nintendo felt comfortable enough to add Byleth despite "too many FE characters" being a common complaint since Corrin?

I think the thought process is that since Bandana Waddle Dee and Dixie Kong have nothing recent to promote (Kirby Star Allies and Donkey Kong: Tropical Freeze are too old at this point) and don't have an incredibly vocal audience, they aren't at all likely. Byleth is a little different because he had a game to promote, even though they knew that the hardcore Smash community wouldn't want him.

 

[CrusherMania1592]

...K Rool not as iconic?

bruh, second most requested character behind Ridley. Was there for the ride since Brawl. And man, what a great 20-12 years it took (depends on if you started during Melee or Brawl) to finally get those two icons in the game

blood, sweat, trolling, counseling, and many salty tears were involved in those highly anxiety years we waited patiently for those two. When they were revealed, we let out that sigh of relief. The sigh daddy Sakurai finally listened

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

...K Rool not as iconic?

bruh, second most requested character behind Ridley. Was there for the ride since Brawl. And man, what a great 20-12 years it took (depends on if you started during Melee or Brawl) to finally get those two icons in the game

blood, sweat, trolling, counseling, and many salty tears were involved in those highly anxiety years we waited patiently for those two. When they were revealed, we let out that sigh of relief. The sigh daddy Sakurai finally listened

I assume you're talking to me?

I never said he wasn't iconic, I just never saw any support for him until the ballot.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Literally the only possible good side to Smash being a GaaS is selling alts, it's a practise that's proven to work for damn mear every game but Smash doesn't like it for some reason. Like, imagine if instead of the Fierce Deity inspired costume, Link would just straight up be the Fierce Deity. I'm genuinely baffled Smash never did that

 

[pupNapoleon]

If the next game fixes the buffer system, implements a decent netcode, and incorporates a cool new gameplay mechanic that not only adds to the fun but is compatible with both casual and competitive play, then it has the potential to surpass Ultimate for some people. Sure the roster won't be as big, but I'll accept a reduced roster size (as long as it's not too crazy and it doesn't affect the characters I like) if it means virtually every other part of the game is better.



Don't worry I got you

But if you want an answer that doesn't involve an hour long video then a live service game, or games as a service as it is known, is a revenue model where a game is monetized heavily after it's initial sale, so the game is continuously updated but as a downside it gets filled with micro-transactions or/and it uses subscription models. Think of something like Destiny as an example of a game like that.

Funny... we finally have a glimpse that THIS is what is happening in the current game.

 

[MooMew64]

Literally the only possible good side to Smash being a GaaS is selling alts, it's a practise that's proven to work for damn mear every game but Smash doesn't like it for some reason. Like, imagine if instead of the Fierce Deity inspired costume, Link would just straight up be the Fierce Deity. I'm genuinely baffled Smash never did that

I wish they would, honestly. Octolings getting in as Alph-styled alts would have their shots skyrocket if this was a thing.

Tons of characters have good potential alts, it's a huge shame that the costume DLC is limited for just Miis.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Guess who’s back

back again

There was a problem fetching the tweet

we getting news soon for sure

remeber when he said he was gonna stay out of the leaking business

yeah that was a ****ing lie

 

[Fluttershy64]

Guess who’s back

back again

There was a problem fetching the tweet

we getting news soon for sure

Hopefully that means something. Might line up with that wildcard thing.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Curious Villager do you know how long thr Layton twitter goes without tweeting??

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Guess who’s back

back again

Spoiler: Media

There was a problem fetching the tweet

we getting news soon for sure

People are still perpetuating the Mario port bundle hoax I see.

No I will not be convinced that it is not a hoax unless Nintendo themselves reveals that it exists. After which I would question why they decided they didn't want to make such an announcement the announcement of the century.

Literally the only possible good side to Smash being a GaaS is selling alts, it's a practise that's proven to work for damn mear every game but Smash doesn't like it for some reason. Like, imagine if instead of the Fierce Deity inspired costume, Link would just straight up be the Fierce Deity. I'm genuinely baffled Smash never did that

'Cuz they know their community. Their community just loves the Mii Fighters. lol

 

[SKX31]

I'm not entirely sure she counts, even with the free to play week. Like, they definitely took advantage of her inclusion with the free trial, but unless we see some sort of update or sequel to ARMS, they're not really gonna do much for the game sales wise. If we do end up getting an ARMS 2, then I'll believe that she was probably supposed to support that, but as far as a promotional character for ARMS goes, she's too little too late and I think Nintnedo would know that.

It's moreso the fact that Nintendo didn't officially support ARMS with official tournaments or anything like that between March 2018 and March this year. By contrast, Nintendo's been much more active with holding official Splatoon tournaments ever since the last Splatoon 2 update was released.

That's only part of the equation, yes, but Nintendo taking their time and effort to hold official tournaments beyond the last patch signal interest in keeping the playerbase going long term. And that's what I meant with "restarting" official support for ARMS.

I wish they would, honestly. Octolings getting in as Alph-styled alts would have their shots skyrocket if this was a thing.

Tons of characters have good potential alts, it's a huge shame that the costume DLC is limited for just Miis.

It does make sense if "8 colors per character" is hardcoded into the game (I'll take a shot in the dark and guess that it's for simplicity's sake).

But still. it's a major wasted opportunity. I want my Kingdom Hearts Cloud alt. A sword with bandages on it for no good reason? Hell yeah.

 

[Among Waddle Dees]

I think the thought process is that since Bandana Waddle Dee and Dixie Kong have nothing recent to promote (Kirby Star Allies and Donkey Kong: Tropical Freeze are too old at this point) and don't have an incredibly vocal audience, they aren't at all likely. Byleth is a little different because he had a game to promote, even though they knew that the hardcore Smash community wouldn't want him.

Okay, hold the phone. Star Allies is a year younger than ARMS; Tropical Freeze IIRC sold more than ARMS overall. Yet ARMS was the series that got priority.

And even when talking about vocal audiences, I'd argue Bandana Dee and Dixie had just as much of a DLC following as an ARMS character did. There are arguments pointing to these characters not having what it takes, but recency of the latest titles and audiences are not two of them.