Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[dream1ng]

First off, if Nintendo intends to reveal their entire E3 altogether, why haven't they done so already?

...why hasn't Nintendo had a Direct yet? Because development and planning is reeling and restructuring right now, and a Direct requires cooperation from dozens of different parties, and I don't think all the moving parts are stable enough to commit to what would need to be provided.

I just don't think Smash is one of the parties in jeopardy. I think the trouble really stems from having to reshuffle unreleased titles to cover for other ones, and not being able to nail down release specifics, and I don't think DLC has to contend with that problem. It might, I can't say for sure, but I just don't think it's nearly as likely. I would be saying the same for the Crown Tundra.

Also, it's not like the eventual Direct is going to be exactly what E3 was intended to be back then. I doubt the presentation was even finalized. It's going to be missing stuff, and it might have stuff that wasn't going to be there. I just think some of the content that was going to be shown there is being held until a Direct can get off the ground. Like, I suspect a BotW2 trailer was going to be present, and I doubt we see one until we get a real, full Direct.

Second, why would they keep it all together? It's clear that plans have changed, it's been 2 months since E3 would've been, so they've lost valuable time for marketing. They don't really gain anything by keeping their E3 slate to be announced together, the eyes that would have been on it because of E3 are no longer there and there's no need to "win" anymore or to upstage the competition.

Why have any non-E3 Direct then? The reason they do Directs at all is the reason why they'd aim to keep things together instead of piecemeal reveals. More eyes, more hype, more engagement. When we're past all of this, do you think individual Twitter drops will stay the norm? Sure they'd get even more traction at E3, but they'd still get more engagement from a Direct than a bunch of individuals drops.

It especially helps nicher titles.

Third, how do you explain The Origami King and Pikmin 3? Wouldn't those have been E3 reveals?

No, those were going to be pre-E3 reveals. And Pikmin wasn't always intended for October.

But, it's also because eventually games that are still coming out soon still have to be shown, even if a Direct isn't ready. It's not like Nintendo is revealing its own 2021 titles here.

I just don't think DLC faces the same current uncertainty-until-imminent Nintendo's full games do. Unless they run into development trouble. Which is possible, that might be an aspect of it that I'm overlooking. But I don't believe that to be the case with Smash.

 

[ShrimpScampi]

I'll take a crack at this boss wishlist:

• Light Realm: Immaculate One, Metroid Prime, Eggman-Wily team-up
• Dark Realm: Giratina, The Enchantress (Shovel Knight), Metal Face (with a different/more complex attack pattern than the stage hazard)

 

[Guynamednelson]

Random question: has Sakurai ever stated why Lucas was added as DLC in Smash 4? I feel like it was a bit of a random pick, I don't see many people upset if he were to be cut (obviously I was super happy he wasn't cut!)

I believe they had trouble getting his PK Starstorm to work on the 3DS. They gave up and just gave him Ness' version until SSBU.

 

[dream1ng]

Random question: has Sakurai ever stated why Lucas was added as DLC in Smash 4? I feel like it was a bit of a random pick, I don't see many people upset if he were to be cut (obviously I was super happy he wasn't cut!)

If Gematsu is to be believed, which for some reason some people still don't, then Lucas was worked on during base but not finished - so he was likely easy to just complete and release as opposed to a character that would need work from the ground up.

 

[GoodGrief741]

...why hasn't Nintendo had a Direct yet? Because development and planning is reeling and restructuring right now, and a Direct requires cooperation from dozens of different parties, and I don't think all the moving parts are stable enough to commit to what would need to be provided.

I just don't think Smash is one of the parties in jeopardy. I think the trouble really stems from having to reshuffle unreleased titles to cover for other ones, and not being able to nail down release specifics, and I don't think DLC has to contend with that problem. It might, I can't say for sure, but I just don't think it's nearly as likely. I would be saying the same for the Crown Tundra.

Also, it's not like the eventual Direct is going to be exactly what E3 was intended to be back then. I doubt the presentation was even finalized. It's going to be missing stuff, and it might have stuff that wasn't going to be there. I just think some of the content that was going to be shown there is being held until a Direct can get off the ground. Like, I suspect a BotW2 trailer was going to be present, and I doubt we see one until we get a real, full Direct.


Why have any non-E3 Direct then? The reason they do Directs at all is the reason why they'd aim to keep things together instead of piecemeal reveals. More eyes, more hype, more engagement. When we're past all of this, do you think individual Twitter drops will stay the norm? Sure they'd get even more traction at E3, but they'd still get more engagement from a Direct than a bunch of individuals drops.

It especially helps nicher titles.


No, those were going to be pre-E3 reveals. And Pikmin wasn't always intended for October.

But, it's also because eventually games that are still coming out soon still have to be shown, even if a Direct isn't ready. It's not like Nintendo is revealing its own 2021 titles here.

I just don't think DLC faces the same current uncertainty-until-imminent Nintendo's full games do. Unless they run into development trouble. Which is possible, that might be an aspect of it that I'm overlooking. But I don't believe that to be the case with Smash.

Yeah, this is all quite the stretch. All of Nintendo's marketing is in disarray, but somehow Smash's is fine, they want to keep the E3 Direct as-is except they're not, third parties are involved despite us getting a partner showcase recently, Paper Mario was going to be a pre-E3 reveal despite all reports pointing otherwise, and somehow you know Pikmin's original intended release date and reveal plans?

Yeah these are all big ifs friend, this theory only works if you want it to.

 

[Dark Bagel]

Impressive! Where’d you get that template?

I made it from scratch.

 

[dream1ng]

Yeah, this is all quite the stretch. All of Nintendo's marketing is in disarray, but somehow Smash's is fine,

I think DLC is fine because it doesn't need to stand in the place of other games. I said actual developmental delays could still be a problem, but the problem with much of 2020's earlier slate is that it's getting moved around to cover for other stuff, like the intended late 2020/2021 software, which DLC doesn't need to do.

they want to keep the E3 Direct as-is except they're not,

So you honestly think they've shown everything you believe they were planning to show at E3 already? Which is what... Paper Mario and Pikmin? And some Poke spin-offs? You don't think any other reveals are being held back?

Really?

third parties are involved despite us getting a partner showcase recently,

Of course third-parties are involved... do you think the extent of the third-parties was going to be WWE, Bakugan, Rogue Company and Atlus? Have you watched any of the E3s since the Switch came out? That's like the quantity of half of the sizzle reel.

Paper Mario was going to be a pre-E3 reveal despite all reports pointing otherwise, and somehow you know Pikmin's original intended release date and reveal plans?

Yeah these are all big ifs friend, this theory only works if you want it to.

If you don't find the claims of NateDrake and Jeff Grubb credible then I suppose we're at an impasse, but they've indicated as much.

 

[Perkilator]

I made it from scratch.

FROM SCRATCH?! That’s really cool! Do you have a blank version?

 

[7NATOR]

So Just hypothetical, But if let's say a League of Legends character is in Smash. If Transactions with Tencent were banned, How would that affect DLC Shipping and such, mostly in the U.S?

 

[SneakyLink]

So Just hypothetical, But if let's say a League of Legends character is in Smash. If Transactions with Tencent were banned, How would that affect DLC Shipping and such, mostly in the U.S?

Hmmm... that's a tricky topic, especially since it would affect all of Pass 2 due to it having Tencent content in it.

Would the pass lose a character, or would the entire pass become unsellable?

Or would nothing happen since this is technically Nintendo's product, not Tencent's?

 

[7NATOR]

Hmmm... that's a tricky topic, especially since it would affect all of Pass 2 due to it having Tencent content in it.

Would the pass lose a character, or would the entire pass become unsellable?

Or would nothing happen since this is technically Nintendo's product, not Tencent's?

Well thats the thing. Even if it's counted as Nintendo's Product, It's 99.99% Likely some of the DLC Sales goes toward Tencent. I would think they want to benefit of the Character's sales and such. Maybe if Nintendo Paid Tencent a Big 1 time payment and they get all of the DLC Sales, I could see that working perhaps. But yeah this is Tricky

 

[PLANTMAN]

So Just hypothetical, But if let's say a League of Legends character is in Smash. If Transactions with Tencent were banned, How would that affect DLC Shipping and such, mostly in the U.S?

No effect

because lol is not getting a fighter in smash

 

[3BitSaurus]

So Just hypothetical, But if let's say a League of Legends character is in Smash. If Transactions with Tencent were banned, How would that affect DLC Shipping and such, mostly in the U.S?

I mean, unless Japan bans transactions with China, I really doubt it would affect anything.

 

[Dark Bagel]

FROM SCRATCH?! That’s really cool! Do you have a blank version?

Here's a png of a textless template:

Spoiler: Full Boss Template Pic

And here are the places I got the fonts from:
https://www.deviantart.com/thewolfbunny/art/Nintendo-Menu-Fonts-651851136
https://www.deviantart.com/absahilgagrai/art/Super-Smash-Bros-3DS-Wii-U-font-618429085

 

[SharkLord]

So Just hypothetical, But if let's say a League of Legends character is in Smash. If Transactions with Tencent were banned, How would that affect DLC Shipping and such, mostly in the U.S?

Turns out it's exclusively for TikTok, so nothing happens.

 

[SneakyLink]

Turns out it's exclusively for TikTok, so nothing happens.

I never understood TikTok. Why would a video app be named after a 100 year old character from a fantasy story anyhow?

Back to speculation, I am definitely thinking Pack 7 will release before 2021, anything after that is fair game. If Pack 7 were after 2021 though, I fear one of the future packs become delayed, but that means a better product... most of the time anyway.

 

[SharkLord]

I'm still expecting CP8 in December. Banjo was released in September, and Terry in November. The amiibo arrive in the September-October range, and the fighters usually release around the same time as the amiibo, so based on those two patterns, CP8 would logically release around the November-December range.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

New POTD

pic.twitter.com/VUrOXUSAzA

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) August 7, 2020

 

[PSIGuy]

Oh right, they did add Minmin to this game, huh.

 

[Sc_Ev0lution]

At this point, I think the release for FP2 will look something like this:

CP7: Sep-Oct
CP8: Jan-Feb
CP9: Apr-May-Jun
CP10: Aug-Sep
CP11: Nov-Dec

I guess it's a good thing Nintendo gave the release schedule this much wiggle room, huh? At this point, I'm willing to bet they use it to the fullest.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I made a potential Smash Ultimate DLC boss roster. What do you guys think of the lineup?

View attachment 281545

Giratina and Nightmare alone make this amazing. However, the best boss they can potentially add imo is Jenova. ****ing John Carpenter looking ass would be amazing to see, ESPECIALLY with this

I will NEVER forgive Nintendo being cheapskates over FF7

 

[Goombaic]

Here's a png of a textless template:

Spoiler: Full Boss Template Pic

View attachment 281553

And here are the places I got the fonts from:
https://www.deviantart.com/thewolfbunny/art/Nintendo-Menu-Fonts-651851136
https://www.deviantart.com/absahilgagrai/art/Super-Smash-Bros-3DS-Wii-U-font-618429085

This seems fun so here's mine

Rather than just having Rayquaza back, why not make it Nobunaga's shiny Rayquaza? Dragnor would also make for a cool boss stage.
DJ Octavio can make for a fun battle, launching back his attacks while trying to move through the ink he generates.
I couldn't decide between Eggman or Wily so why not both? Maybe make it like Galeem/Dharkon's fight where they're fighting each other as you're fighting them.
Not sure if I'd rather have Porky's fight reworked to involve Giygas in some way or just make the fight be against Giygas.
I can't really envision Medusa or Hades as Smash bosses, but literally everyone else works so I chose Pandora.
The Enchantress' fight in Shovel Knight is already fitting enough for Smash.

 

[cashregister9]

Here's a png of a textless template:

Spoiler: Full Boss Template Pic

View attachment 281553

And here are the places I got the fonts from:
https://www.deviantart.com/thewolfbunny/art/Nintendo-Menu-Fonts-651851136
https://www.deviantart.com/absahilgagrai/art/Super-Smash-Bros-3DS-Wii-U-font-618429085

I posted one earlier and now I have visuals!

Spoiler: Small spoilers for Dragon Quest IX

I should have flipped Yaldabaoth and Mordegon but whatever

 

[DarthEnderX]

ayyy i can't replicate the template but lemme have a crack at this:

Light Realm bosses:
Arceus [Pokemon]
Eggman piloting Death Egg Robot [Sonic the Hedgehog]
Dr. Wily piloting Wily Machine [Mega Man]
Safer∙Sephiroth [Final Fantasy]

2 goofy cartoon bosses and 2 angelic beings

Dark Realm bosses:
Mother Brain [Metroid]
Andross(N64 version) [Star Fox]
Porky [Earthbound]
Medusa [Kid Icarus]

Complete monsters

 

[Ivander]

Doing boss wishlists? Let's see:

Light Realm:
Kraid
Twinbellows
Metal Face

Dark Realm:
Necrozma
Porky Minch
Tabuu

Bosses in general:
Eggman/Death Egg
Vile
Dark Emperor
Airbuster
Vordt of the Boreal Valley

 

[N3ON]

I will NEVER forgive Nintendo being cheapskates over FF7

Do you think it's Nintendo being cheapskates, or do you think given Nintendo has managed to procure a decent amount of content from literally every other playable series (that at least had a decent amount to work with), FF being the exception indicates its licensing in particular is exorbitantly costly?

 

[Guybrush20X6]

So Just hypothetical, But if let's say a League of Legends character is in Smash. If Transactions with Tencent were banned, How would that affect DLC Shipping and such, mostly in the U.S?

I think the important part isn't that China is making money off of the west, it's the concerns of data harvesting. Companies already do FAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRR too much of that but when that company has direct ties to a nation's government that's when it steps over the line from "Oh Capitalism, you little scamp" to possible treachery. Nintendo including an LOL character wouldn't do much as Tencent doesn't have a direct line to Nintendo's data.

 

[I.D.]

Do you think it's Nintendo being cheapskates, or do you think given Nintendo has managed to procure a decent amount of content from literally every other playable series (that at least had a decent amount to work with), FF being the exception indicates its licensing in particular is exorbitantly costly?

It's especially funny getting angry over Jenova of all things when Square themselves have consistently demoted her from "main antagonist" to "glorified angel wing dispenser" in pretty much every FFVII product released after the original. Even if Square had given them more content to work with I'm pretty sure Jenova wouldn't be part of it.

 

[Arcane Jill]

On a bit of a tangent, I want to address an arguement against Indies getting a fighter slot that I hear frequently: "If Cuphead or Sans couldn't get a slot, other indies have no chance of getting one." One thing that I feel is not being taken account here is age.
When Sans dropped, UT was barely 4 years old, and Cuphead was a bit over 2, and they were even younger when discussion and development would have begun on them. When we take a look at every DLC fighter we have recieved, with the exception of Bayo (who won the ballot) and Minmin (an internally developed IP that Nintendo would have more confidence in), they all hark from IPs that have been active since the 90's at least. Nintendo seems to value IPs that have stood the test of time and if the consider a indie fighter, I feel they will look at ones who have done the same, such as Shantae (2002), Quote (2004), or Reimu (1995).

Tldr: Cuphead and Sans were likely passed over for being too green for comfort, and if an indie will be picked, it will be one shown to have legs and stood the test of time.

 

[SKX31]

I think the important part isn't that China is making money off of the west, it's the concerns of data harvesting. Companies already do FAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRR too much of that but when that company has direct ties to a nation's government that's when it steps over the line from "Oh Capitalism, you little scamp" to possible treachery. Nintendo including an LOL character wouldn't do much as Tencent doesn't have a direct line to Nintendo's data.

I don't want to get too deep into this for obvious reasons - especially since I'm not trying to draw a false equaliency: Tencent's services are embedded in Chinese society to a much larger extent than most others comparatively: WeChat's effectively become China's ID system. Microsoft's shady stuff with the American government is far from as severe, but still there. What with Microsoft cooperating with the NSA on the PRISM surveillance program.

There are real concerns due to Microsoft being linked to TikTok's global business (with... encouragement from certain someones in the American government). If one's looking to ban say an app due to possibly dangerous connections to a government, then it shouldn't come with the implied caveat that ones own companies have a much freer hand engage in similar practices (even if "less dangerous"). [Bit of a late edit:] because the Chinese government did exactly that years ago... and that didn't improve the situation at all.

Anyway, I agree on the whole that it's the Japanese Diet that would affect Nintendo primarily.

And boss wishlists:

Light Realm:

Safer Sephiroth / Final Form Kefka
Eggman
Metal Face

Dark Realm:

Dark Emperor (especially if he gives a dangerous variant of the Monado buffs)
Liquid Snake
Shadow Queen

Those are the six that come to my mind.

 

[CapitaineCrash]

On a bit of a tangent, I want to address an arguement against Indies getting a fighter slot that I hear frequently: "If Cuphead or Sans couldn't get a slot, other indies have no chance of getting one." One thing that I feel is not being taken account here is age.
When Sans dropped, UT was barely 4 years old, and Cuphead was a bit over 2, and they were even younger when discussion and development would have begun on them. When we take a look at every DLC fighter we have recieved, with the exception of Bayo (who won the ballot) and Minmin (an internally developed IP that Nintendo would have more confidence in), they all hark from IPs that have been active since the 90's at least. Nintendo seems to value IPs that have stood the test of time and if the consider a indie fighter, I feel they will look at ones who have done the same, such as Shantae (2002), Quote (2004), or Reimu (1995).

Tldr: Cuphead and Sans were likely passed over for being too green for comfort, and if an indie will be picked, it will be one shown to have legs and stood the test of time.

The thing with Shantae is that despite being around for more than 10 years, she's not even near the popularity of Sans and Cuphead (I'm not talking in the smash fanbase but in general). The same thing can be said about Quote and on top of that he's not as relevant as Sans and Cuphead (although Cave story is a pioneer of indie game).

The only one that I would agree is Reimu for how huge she is in Japan and that she stood the test of time.

 

[PeridotGX]

This seems fun so here's mine

Rather than just having Rayquaza back, why not make it Nobunaga's shiny Rayquaza? Dragnor would also make for a cool boss stage.
DJ Octavio can make for a fun battle, launching back his attacks while trying to move through the ink he generates.
I couldn't decide between Eggman or Wily so why not both? Maybe make it like Galeem/Dharkon's fight where they're fighting each other as you're fighting them.
Not sure if I'd rather have Porky's fight reworked to involve Giygas in some way or just make the fight be against Giygas.
I can't really envision Medusa or Hades as Smash bosses, but literally everyone else works so I chose Pandora.
The Enchantress' fight in Shovel Knight is already fitting enough for Smash.

I don't care about four and a half of these bosses, and I'd rather have Eggman as a playable character, but Nobunaga and Rayquaza make up for all of it, 10/10

Pokemon Conquest is the second most underated game of all time, it was fantastic and nobody talks about it.

 

[SharkLord]

On a bit of a tangent, I want to address an arguement against Indies getting a fighter slot that I hear frequently: "If Cuphead or Sans couldn't get a slot, other indies have no chance of getting one." One thing that I feel is not being taken account here is age.
When Sans dropped, UT was barely 4 years old, and Cuphead was a bit over 2, and they were even younger when discussion and development would have begun on them. When we take a look at every DLC fighter we have recieved, with the exception of Bayo (who won the ballot) and Minmin (an internally developed IP that Nintendo would have more confidence in), they all hark from IPs that have been active since the 90's at least. Nintendo seems to value IPs that have stood the test of time and if the consider a indie fighter, I feel they will look at ones who have done the same, such as Shantae (2002), Quote (2004), or Reimu (1995).

Tldr: Cuphead and Sans were likely passed over for being too green for comfort, and if an indie will be picked, it will be one shown to have legs and stood the test of time.

Agreed. It's still a bit early for Undertale and Cuphead, the latter especially (Unless Cuphead's bigger than I realize). That being said, they were at least fine with Joker despite Persona 5 being only a couple years old, but it was really well received. Assuming ATs are viable again, I'd argue Shovel Knight would be a pretty viable option, seeing as he's getting new games coming up and he's pretty much become the cameo king. Currently, I think the biggest indies at this point are Shovel Knight, for the reasons mentioned above, and Reimu, for her legacy and just how big Touhou is in Japan. Shantae's in third due to popularity in both Smash and in general, but I don't really count legacy as something going for her when she only broke free of her cult classic status around Pirate's Curse. She might as well be another New 10's indie.

 

[Shinuto]

Agreed. It's still a bit early for Undertale and Cuphead, the latter especially (Unless Cuphead's bigger than I realize). That being said, they were at least fine with Joker despite Persona 5 being only a couple years old, but it was really well received. Assuming ATs are viable again, I'd argue Shovel Knight would be a pretty viable option, seeing as he's getting new games coming up and he's pretty much become the cameo king. Currently, I think the biggest indies at this point are Shovel Knight, for the reasons mentioned above, and Reimu, for her legacy and just how big Touhou is in Japan. Shantae's in third due to popularity in both Smash and in general, but I don't really count legacy as something going for her when she only broke free of her cult classic status around Pirate's Curse. She might as well be another New 10's indie.

Persona as a series has been around since the 90s. Joker represents that. Well Persona3 anyway since Atlus seems to completely ignore 1 and 2

Also I think you drastically understate how impressive it is that Shantae managed to come out of cult following status. Think of how many one off games came out the same time as Shantae and never saw the light of day again due to poor sale despite critical acclaim. Shantae has managed to bounce back from her terrible start in gaming and that's something not many can boast about.

The thing with Shantae is that despite being around for more than 10 years, she's not even near the popularity of Sans and Cuphead (I'm not talking in the smash fanbase but in general). The same thing can be said about Quote and on top of that he's not as relevant as Sans and Cuphead (although Cave story is a pioneer of indie game).

The only one that I would agree is Reimu for how huge she is in Japan and that she stood the test of time.

Sakurai literally stated in Terry's video popularity isn't nearly as important as being fun to play.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

In my humble opinion, saying something is "too new" in some cases seems like it's a form of gatekeeping. As in, "X, Y, and Z aren't going to happen despite these factors that support them, but these others are eligible because they're old". I don't know that I agree.

If the age of a character or IP mattered as much, I would suspect the roster we currently have would be much different. For example, despite Persona being a series long before Persona 5, the crossover is with Persona 5 specifically, and Joker. Byleth, a character whose game launched less than a year prior to their inclusion, was added. I realize these aren't indies, but I think the argument of "older character = better addition" or "more likely addition" isn't true.

Considering Sakurai had a tendency to heavily consider worldwide appeal in some cases (Lucas, Takamaru), if the thing with Reimu is that her series is large in Japan but not nearly as large anywhere else, that could hypothetically be a problem. Not to mention, while this could be off base, consider the fact that the total amount of people who use social media and pass around such concepts is not, in fact, a large majority. This isn't to say that Reimu is "unknown" to people who don't use Twitter regularly (a larger population than you might think, for example), but she isn't somebody that is immediately recognizable to a large population outside of Japan. She's fairly niche worldwide. To be fair, this isn't just a problem with Reimu, but a good number of characters that the speculation community sees as major contenders. Even if something is on social media, it is still a minority opinion overall. This is why I personally think that some characters are disregarded as "unpopular" while others are built up as "the most popular".

Somebody may make a response about the music from old memes, but I'd never seen or heard such memes at the time, and I don't think that's much of a compelling argument anyway.

Basically, using age as a reason to exclude some games or series but not selective others seems like gatekeeping, and I feel as though the overall concept of Reimu being huge in Japan is something that should be critically considered for the character. This is something that specifically held Sakurai up for Lucas and Takamaru, so while I see that Nintendo has more choosing power this time around, I wouldn't necessarily think they're "fine with it" by default. There should be a more nuanced conversation about just how much the "huge in Japan, but not so much everywhere else" can effect the situation. Lastly, I think the way that "support" is measured should be taken into consideration based on the fact that despite the large amount of users on various social media sites, that population is still a minority of overall fans.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Reimu always struck me as character who's real deciding point was whether Sakurai and/or Nintendo had a specific interest in her. It feels like the one potential element that could overcome her relative niche status in the States.

Its always worth remembering that various indie characters getting as far as they have in Smash is still remarkable. Shovel Knight is a notable assist trophy in a game that's sold 20 million copies. That's a hell of spotlight for something that's a kickstarter funded title only six years old.

 

[SharkLord]

In my humble opinion, saying something is "too new" in some cases seems like it's a form of gatekeeping. As in, "X, Y, and Z aren't going to happen despite these factors that support them, but these others are eligible because they're old". I don't know that I agree.

If the age of a character or IP mattered as much, I would suspect the roster we currently have would be much different. For example, despite Persona being a series long before Persona 5, the crossover is with Persona 5 specifically, and Joker. Byleth, a character whose game launched less than a year prior to their inclusion, was added. I realize these aren't indies, but I think the argument of "older character = better addition" or "more likely addition" isn't true.

Considering Sakurai had a tendency to heavily consider worldwide appeal in some cases (Lucas, Takamaru), if the thing with Reimu is that her series is large in Japan but not nearly as large anywhere else, that could hypothetically be a problem. Not to mention, while this could be off base, consider the fact that the total amount of people who use social media and pass around such concepts is not, in fact, a large majority. This isn't to say that Reimu is "unknown" to people who don't use Twitter regularly (a larger population than you might think, for example), but she isn't somebody that is immediately recognizable to a large population outside of Japan. She's fairly niche worldwide. To be fair, this isn't just a problem with Reimu, but a good number of characters that the speculation community sees as major contenders. Even if something is on social media, it is still a minority opinion overall. This is why I personally think that some characters are disregarded as "unpopular" while others are built up as "the most popular".

Somebody may make a response about the music from old memes, but I'd never seen or heard such memes at the time, and I don't think that's much of a compelling argument anyway.

Basically, using age as a reason to exclude some games or series but not selective others seems like gatekeeping, and I feel as though the overall concept of Reimu being huge in Japan is something that should be critically considered for the character. This is something that specifically held Sakurai up for Lucas and Takamaru, so while I see that Nintendo has more choosing power this time around, I wouldn't necessarily think they're "fine with it" by default. There should be a more nuanced conversation about just how much the "huge in Japan, but not so much everywhere else" can effect the situation. Lastly, I think the way that "support" is measured should be taken into consideration based on the fact that despite the large amount of users on various social media sites, that population is still a minority of overall fans.

To be fair, Touhou is still a lot bigger than Mother 3 and Mysterious Murasame Castle. It's, what, one installment in a cult classic series that's better received in the West than Japan and a single retro game? Touhou's got 30 games under it's belt and a lot of popularity. Plus, you can actually get Touhou on the West; 12 games on Steam at the moment.
On the other hand, Touhou's popularity is still concentrated mainly in Japan, and it's pretty niche in the West. Doesn't help that most of the games are untranslated, if only because the fans will make their own translation anyways so ZUN doesn't have to. Actually, do all the Steam games have a fan translation floating around on Steam, or do I have to get that elsewhere?
Still, Reimu's in a better situation than Lucas and Takamaru when it comes to popularity.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Sakurai literally stated in Terry's video popularity isn't nearly as important as being fun to play.

Don't get it twisted though, it is something that is heavily considered, and as Scoliosis Jones said, it can also lead to characters being discarded. We know it's not the be-all-end-all (otherwise we wouldn't have characters like R.O.B.) but it's not unimportant. Heck, some characters are chosen because of their popularity.

 

[SharkLord]

Don't get it twisted though, it is something that is heavily considered, and as Scoliosis Jones said, it can also lead to characters being discarded. We know it's not the be-all-end-all (otherwise we wouldn't have characters like R.O.B.) but it's not unimportant. Heck, some characters are chosen because of their popularity.

It could go various ways as well; It could be directed at the Smash fanbase, who were going to complain that Terry is a "literal who nobody," or it could mean he values fun over recognizability. It should also be noted that according to Byleth's reveal, Nintendo chooses the fighters and not Sakurai, so Sakurai's preferences might not be the same as Nintendo's. I believe he once said there was a character he wanted but Nintendo didn't allow it. Didn't say who though.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

It should also be noted that according to Byleth's reveal, Nintendo chooses the fighters and not Sakurai, so Sakurai's preferences might not be the same as Nintendo's. I believe he once said there was a character he wanted but Nintendo didn't allow it. Didn't say who though.

That is true. To be honest, it's kinda hard to say what Nintendo wants given the current character choices. Joker and Hero were likely chosen due to their popularity, as Persona 5 was the talk of the town at the time, and Dragon Quest is Dragon Quest, and Banjo & Kazooie were likely chosen because they wanted a character from Microsoft (so why not pick the one fans have been asking for for a while now), Terry gives me a big question mark, and while Byleth was a promotional character in the same vein as Corrin, Min Min doesn't seem to be since ARMS is 3 years old now, there's no evidence of an ARMS 2 (unless it's getting shadowdropped later, but that's too late to capitalize on anything), and all they did to try and push the game aside from Min Min was a short free trial.