Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[RileyXY1]

Byleth was always planned for the first pass. No ifs, ands, or buts about it.

 

[SNEKeater]

Honestly, I know this is an incredibly unpopular opinion, but I think I'd give every other third party franchise a second unique character before I'd give Sonic one. I just don't find the Sonic cast that compelling. Similarly, I don't mind Sonic's moveset all that much and think it fits him pretty well. I like the original Sonic games plenty, so it isn't just a bias against the franchise either. I just find that he's pretty well represented and like I said, the rest of the Sonic cast just isn't terribly exciting to me.

Honestly, I agree with you. Personally I don't find the appeal in adding more Sonic characters, but maybe that's just me. I'd prefer seeing a rework for Sonic's moveset. But I could see Shadow as an echo, not much more, and not because I dislike Sonic or something, which isn't the case, but as others have said, I'd rather new 3rd party series over more characters from series already repped.
Don't get me wrong, I always liked Ken more than Ryu and I'd love to see Alucard or Chun-Li as playable fighters, but if I had the power, I'd try to go for new series, which seems to me a like the more interesting and exciting idea, at least in the context of Smash Ultimate.

They're not saying franchises should just stick to a single character
They're saying they'd prefer Smash include a variety of third party franchises over just focusing on the third parties that are already present.

Like yeah I'd love to see more from Mega Man and Street Fighter. But I also want Devil May Cry, Ace Attorney and several other Capcom franchises get a shot at the roster. I'd love more from Sonic, but I also want Yakuza, Valkyria, SMT and Monkey Ball.

Exactly this. I don't think anyone's trying to say "3rd party series should stay with 1 character, otherwise it's a mistake". As I said, I'd like to see certain characters from franchises that we already have in the game. But in the end, having new series in the game seems more interesting to me.
Not because we have to fill a quota of new series or something like that,. We know that Everyone is Here is an Ultimate's thing, so I can see why people would rather have new series. Ultimate could be the last chance to see certain match-ups.

I guess it would be different for me if the only Capcom IP I like was Street Fighter, then I'd be like "whatever" with new Capcom series.

I just wanted to point this out.

Please, don't get me wrong. I adore Mega Man. I legitimately hope he stays in Smash forever, and I'd be hyped to see additional Mega Man characters hypothetically be added.

But in today's day and age, I don't think we can really call Mega Man "an icon" or "among gaming's biggest legends." He's an icon of his age, yes, but not one in general. At least, not anymore. It's hard to ignore the elephant in the room that is the series's sales numbers.

Mega Man 11 came out in October 2018 on all major platforms. It took until a full year later for the game to reach one million units sold. As of this past June, it has only sold 1.2 million. And again, this is for a game that was meant as a big return for an iconic character, and a game that was multiplatform, and a game that didn't even have a full sixty dollar price tag.

Look at other iconic revivals. Tomb Raider (2013), the long awaited return of Lara Croft, beat Mega Man 11's lifetime sales in less than two days, and as of 2017, sold 11 million copies. The Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy sold over 2.5 million in the first three months, and that was while being a PlayStation exclusive. After the exclusivity ended, the sales skyrocketed further to over 10 million by February 2019.

If we look beyond other revivals and just look at recent Capcom games, Street Fighter V has sold 4.5 million despite fighting games being a much more niche genre than platformers. Devil May Cry V sold 3.5 million as of March of this year. Monster Hunter World? It sold 15.5 million copies. The remakes of Resident Evil 2 and 3 sold 6.6 million and 2.5 million, respectively.

Even games in series or genres that some people on this site call niche did significantly better. Nier: Automata sold 4.5 million copies. Persona 5 sold 3.2 million copies prior to Royal, and post-Royal, that went up to 4.6 million. Fire Emblem: Three Houses, despite having literally just celebrated its first anniversary last week, has sold about 3 million copies.

And then, again, there's Mega Man. Despite Mega Man 11 being his big revival, a return to form for classic Mega Man...with only 1.2 million copies sold after a year and a half, despite being multiplatform and not being full price, despite the frequent sales.

Mega Man is a series with a massive legacy. But the truth of the matter is that icons can and do fade over time. And this, to me, is kind of proof that Mega Man's time in the sun is fading, as sad as it makes me. He doesn't have the pull these days that he once did, and because of that, I struggle to still call him an icon. He absolutely was one, but these days? I'd say he's considerably more niche.

Just my two cents. I think you're overstating just how much pull Mega Man still has in the general gaming landscape. I wish it weren't the case, but...the numbers don't lie.

I agree with pretty much everything you said, but I'd like to say that not selling incredibly well (and as far as I know, Capcom said they were happy with Megaman 11 numbers) doesn't mean you're no longer an icon. Maybe it sounds like a stupid thing to discuss, but I mean, almost anyone nowadays who has some background when it comes to playing videogames would recognize Megaman.
It's just that Megaman's peak already passed. But that doesn't mean he's forgotten or that he can't have a resurgence. If that will happen, I don't know.

Sales aren't everything when it comes to the popularity of characters. Of course, it's an important factor but not the only one. For example, Metroid is a highly influential series with a strong legacy as well, with Samus being one of the most important female characters in the industry, besides being a pretty recognizable character for most gamers. And yet, the only game that surpassed the 3 million mark was the first Prime game.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Aaand that's pretty much the final nail on the coffin for Nintendo's most hilariously mismanaged property ever getting more than a Mii costume

 

[MooMew64]

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Aaand that's pretty much the final nail on the coffin for Nintendo's most hilariously mismanaged property ever getting more than a Mii costume

This will not please the CEO of Gaming.

...Seriously, how did Nintendo mess this one up so bad? It's like they wanted to kill it.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

And to think this happened only a couple weeks after Scott The Woz's Zip Lash video

Coincidence?

 

[cashregister9]

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Aaand that's pretty much the final nail on the coffin for Nintendo's most hilariously mismanaged property ever getting more than a Mii costume

I low key thought they were already defunct

 

[Cutie Gwen]

And to think this happened only a couple weeks after Scott The Woz's Zip Lash video

Coincidence?

Yeah he exaggerated so much that Skip cried themselved to death

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

To change the discussion, do you guys think Aaronitmar’s theory on Tracer being planned for the first Fighter’s Pass has any merit?

I don't even need to watch the video to know it's bunk.

Nintendo wouldn't scrap a character over something that over the long term has, unfortunately, sizzled out. At worst they would delay Tracer until the controversy was less intense, but to go back on an agreement with a third party partner and scrap the character outright? That's the corporate equivalent of fire bombing an ally.

No way would Nintendo do such a thing. The only reason such a theory can even be suggested in the first place is because people have humanized Nintendo and assume they have human values like the rest of us. Newsflash: Nintendo is not your friend, nor will they ever be your friend. They are a corporation first and foremost, and at the end of the day they care more about their bottom line and corporate relationships than they do political controversy in an outside country.

 

[Deleted member]

despite fighting games being a much more niche genre than platformers

i cant believe youve done this

 

[Dinoman96]

It's sad how all these weird new IPs Nintendo published during the GCN/GBA era are all long dead now

Golden Sun, Chibi-Robo!, Custom Robo, Advance Wars (okay technically this one dates back way longer but still), etc

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Imagine thinking that Nintendo would waste their time and money to get a character and then end the development of said character because of a company getting bad PR.

No offense to anybody, but this seems like a “Nintendo” YouTuber who just straight up sees Nintendo as a “do gooder” who can do no wrong and adding to the ridiculous narrative that Blizzard AS AN ENTIRE COMPANY thinks Blitzchung should have gotten the punishment he did. Many employees themselves protested against it, considering Overwatch is all about being a “hero”. That’s what Tracer literally stands for...”The world could always use more heroes!”

I dislike things about Blizzard. There is still news coming out about them as a company. Do I hate Blizzard altogether? No, because their content is made by incredibly talented people that love to make games and have families to provide for. Not to mention, Jeff Kaplan, meme machine and Overwatch big-wig, actively stated that he disagreed with the Blitzchung decision.

We’ve been over this several times, and I’m sure we will be over this again, and probably again. But please, for the love of Arceus, try to have a nuanced approach to these things and don’t use political issues to determine who/what is valid for Smash, or generalize a group of people just because of the actions of an individual/ small group of people.

EDIT: I would also like to add that it is wonderful to bring attention to issues of discrimination and inequality, and I would never suggest to not stand up against those things. That’s a part of being an active citizen. But the way these things are wielded, when we don’t know the individuals, but we have evidence of protesting the decisions themselves, let’s try to be a bit more nuanced, yeah?

Also if you don’t want Tracer because “Blizzard bad” but you want Crash Bandicoot then you’re a hypocrite. I don’t make the rules.

 

[zeldasmash]

I never understood why people wanted Shadow so bad. No matter how hard you try, his moveset is never going to be more unique than other characters like Robotnik or Tails. Metal Sonic, even. I genuinely think some people just like the emo sonic and convince themselves he’d be the best sonic rep.

Shadow was the main character of Sonic Adventure 2, which just so happens to be many people's first 3D Sonic game, heck first ever Sonic game. Shadow was seen as compelling for a lot of people and with him starting off as a literal Sonic clone aside from Chaos Control, Shadow as an Echo Fighter made and still makes a lot of sense. Eggman and Tails would be awesome additions, but so would Shadow.

Sonic has quite a few characters that can make it in Smash from popularity and icon status. Eggman, Tails, Shadow, Knuckles, Metal Sonic, Amy, Blaze and even Silver.

 

[Deleted member]

nintendo is a company at the end of the day and it's important to remember that

there is no such thing as ethical consumption under capitalism

 

[Garteam]

If Sakurai and Nintendo didn't give a **** about Sugiyama's political views in regards to working with him, then I highly doubt that political pressure will have any sort of effect on Smash.

There's also the fact Nintendo is actively working with Tencent, a company infamous for being one of corporations closest to and most eager to work with the Chinese government. Something tells me they're willing to look past Activision getting some bad publicity for trying to get into the Chinese market.

 

[The Rhythm Theif]

Shadow was the main character of Sonic Adventure 2, which just so happens to be many people's first 3D Sonic game, heck first ever Sonic game. Shadow was seen as compelling for a lot of people and with him starting off as a literal Sonic clone aside from Chaos Control, Shadow as an Echo Fighter made and still makes a lot of sense. Eggman and Tails would be awesome additions, but so would Shadow.

As someone who has only watched the Snapcube Fandub for Sonic Adventure 2, I can see where you're going with this.

 

[MooMew64]

Watched the video.

Boiling it down to what the crux of the video really is in my eyes: People still won't let Byleth and the fact FP1 wasn't all third parties go.

Nintendo and Sakurai decided on Byleth. They added them in when they were planned to be. It ain't that deep.

 

[Animegamingnerd]

Skip going under doesn't really surprise me, they've been silence for 5 years, only really had a dozen or so employees, their games never really sold well, and have zero experience developing for HD systems. That was a recipe for a studio to go under sooner rather then later.

 

[ZelDan]

I'm guessing the whole "Byleth replaced Tracer thing" became a thing for the same reason the "Byleth was moved from FP2 to FP1" theory became a thing.

that being that some people just can't get over Byleth and therefor Byleth can't be seen as, you know, a simple, normal DLC inclusion but instead as some awful, rules-defying anomaly or whatever.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I'm guessing the whole "Byleth replaced Tracer thing" became a thing for the same reason the "Byleth was moved from FP2 to FP1" theory became a thing.

that being that some people just can't get over Byleth and therefor Byleth can't be seen as, you know, a simple, normal DLC inclusion but instead as some awful, rules-defying anomaly or whatever.

Remember when ppl insisted Byleth switched places with Ryu Hayabusa

 

[Animegamingnerd]

If anyone was suppose to be FP5 instead of Byleth, it would have been Min Min and even that is a massive reach.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Well, ****, that's another 2000s Nintendo franchise left to only be remembered via Smash.

And even then, by this point all of our likely options for that decade are pretty much third party.

 

[Powerman293]

I'm guessing the whole "Byleth replaced Tracer thing" became a thing for the same reason the "Byleth was moved from FP2 to FP1" theory became a thing.

that being that some people just can't get over Byleth and therefor Byleth can't be seen as, you know, a simple, normal DLC inclusion but instead as some awful, rules-defying anomaly or whatever.

Yeah, that latter theory was posted around a ton with no evidence to back it up at all. People can't cope with another Fire Emblem character being added.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

My favourite conspiracy theory involving Byleth was a claim that they were planned on the base roster. The guy's known for being a ****ing loon and refused to correctly spell Byleth for a long time too which is just laughably petty like calling Shantae Shantal. Like, wow man, you sure showed those fans how cool and menacing you are because of a deliberate name screw up

 

[Garteam]

To me, Byleth is easiest DLC character to actually rationalize in terms of the selection process.

Sakurai and Nintendo wanted a character from a major first party release during the previous year to appear as DLC in Ultimate, just like with Corrin in Smash 4' DLC. We can assume ports and remakes were out, so that took New Super Mario Bros. U and Link's Awakening off the table. Likewise, Smash tends to wait and see if a new franchise has legs before giving them a playable character, so Astral Chain and Ring Fit Adventure also weren't available. Plus, Crafted Yoshi was already a skin, so there's nothing new to add there.

That just leaves Luigi's Mansion 3, Super Mario Maker 2, Pokemon Sword/Shield, and Fire Emblem Three Houses. Mario Maker doesn't really have major characters that aren't already in Smash beyond Toad, so that's not an issue. Similarly, Luigi's Mansion 3 only really has King Boo and is technically already referenced in Smash through Luigi's grab. Sword/Shield could've been a viable option given its massive variety of characters, but its late release date likely hampered that idea given that Sakurai had to play an extremely early copy of Three Houses to get Byleth in time.

Three Houses was really the only option left to fill this gap. It wasn't that he replaced your most wanted or whatever. Instead, his game was just in the right place at the right time and was thus able to capitalize on what seems to be a Smash DLC tradition.

 

[Curious Villager]

It's sad how all these weird new IPs Nintendo published during the GCN/GBA era are all long dead now

Golden Sun, Chibi-Robo!, Custom Robo, Advance Wars (okay technically this one dates back way longer but still), etc

Time hasn't been kind to these IP's, especially the ones that originated from the GBA, I think pretty much all either went defunct, became inactive or faded into obscurity...

 

[Cosmic77]

Byleth - "Okay, so obviously Byleth wasn't orginally planned to be F5. I'm thinking they switched F5 with someone else after they decided to make a second pass so they could start things off on a high note. I'm guessing it was supposed to be Crash."

Min Min - "Okay, so obviously Min Min wasn't orginally planned to be F6. I'm thinking they switched F6 with someone else after COVID-19 caused them to deal with delays. I'm guessing it was supposed to be Crash."

In all seriousness, neither of these characters were likely swapped with someone else.

Sword/Shield could've been a viable option given its massive variety of characters, but its late release date likely hampered that idea given that Sakurai had to play an extremely early copy of Three Houses to get Byleth in time.

I don't think a three and a half month difference between 3H and SwSh mattered all that much. Sakurai had settled on Greninja more than a year before X and Y would be released.

SwSh should've been eligible as well. They just chose 3H instead.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

It's sad how all these weird new IPs Nintendo published during the GCN/GBA era are all long dead now

Golden Sun, Chibi-Robo!, Custom Robo, Advance Wars (okay technically this one dates back way longer but still), etc

I hate how the 2000's felt more creative across the board for most developers but now we've just fallen into the same old, same old series that are all either trying to be films or trying to create mascots to put on a T shirt.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Honestly the death of Chibi Robo generally points to how a lot of mid-level Nintendo franchises have generally fallen by the wayside in the last decade or so. Doubly so when there's no DS/3DS line where you could have a modest IP that could still do well for itself without needing to have an HD console game to make its money. So many are gone or in deep hibernation now; F-Zero, Mario & Luigi, Kid Icarus, PIlotwings, Wario Land, etc

Heck even spin-offs from major franchies don't seem as common. Mario Sports titles have been reduced to Tennis, Kirby just has mainline games or free to play stuff, and good luck getting a side game to something like Donkey Kong now.

The N64/Gamecube/Early Wii period certainly had their issues but I miss the general quantity of first party releases that existed in those days. Something like Clubhouse Games was a drop in the bucket of Nintendo published games once upon a time, now its one of the more significant titles this year.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

trying to create mascots to put on a T shirt.

Ok but that happened until like the mid 2000's with crappy Mario 64 inspired mascot platformers trying to get the same cash Mario and Sonic made back then, it's just that people conviniently forget 3D mascot platformers ****ing plagued the market until then

 

[zeldasmash]

I saw the Tracer vid and some of it makes sense, but when he goes into Byleth he started to lose me quite a bit due to his bias against him. The thing with Blitzchung does make sense but if Byleth was a last minute addition, no bloody way was he ready for Sakurai to record the livestream a month after the whole Blitzchung thing. Just accept that Byleth was planned DLC from the start of FP1 and move on.

If Tracer was indeed scrapped for FP1 due to the whole thing with Blitzchung, why wasn't Tracer shown as the first fighter in FP2 when the whole thing died down? If she was indeed planned for FP1, she wouldn't have taken longer to finish and considering that Nintendo are working with Tencent quite often now (begrudgingly...), she would have been good as a the first fighter for FP2. Instead we got Min Min. To me, all this just shows that Tracer was never planned to be a fighter, at least not an FP1 fighter. That could change for FP2 (even though I personally don't want to see a playable Overwatch character in Smash).

 

[N3ON]

The true tragedy is we’ll never see more from Captain Rainbow.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Byleth was always planned for the first pass. No ifs, ands, or buts about it.

You, I love your blunt honestly, keep it up

 

[SpectreJordan]

I saw the Tracer vid and some of it makes sense, but when he goes into Byleth he started to lose me quite a bit due to his bias against him. The thing with Blitzchung does make sense but if Byleth was a last minute addition, no bloody way was he ready for Sakurai to record the livestream a month after the whole Blitzchung thing. Just accept that Byleth was planned DLC from the start of FP1 and move on.

If Tracer was indeed scrapped for FP1 due to the whole thing with Blitzchung, why wasn't Tracer shown as the first fighter in FP2 when the whole thing died down? If she was indeed planned for FP1, she wouldn't have taken longer to finish and considering that Nintendo are working with Tencent quite often now (begrudgingly...), she would have been good as a the first fighter for FP2. Instead we got Min Min. To me, all this just shows that Tracer was never planned to be a fighter, at least not an FP1 fighter. That could change for FP2 (even though I personally don't want to see a playable Overwatch character in Smash).

Nah, I’m pretty sure Overwatch is out. Jeff recently talked about wanting Tracer in Smash. If she was in, he wouldn’t say a thing.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Ok but that happened until like the mid 2000's with crappy Mario 64 inspired mascot platformers trying to get the same cash Mario and Sonic made back then, it's just that people conviniently forget 3D mascot platformers ****ing plagued the market until then

That might be true but there was still effort being put in too make each one look and feel different from each other.

Like, compare Mario, Sonic and Pokemon games from the 2000's to those made today.
In the 2000's we had stuff like Ruby and sapphire, Thousand year door, Sonic Rush adventure, Mario Galaxy, Mystery dungeon explorers and tons of others each feeling really creative in their concepts and what they wanted from their series.

And then in the 2010's you have Sonic mania, Pokemon let's go or Paper Mario Sticker star. (Yeah Sonic Mania is good but hear me out for a second) where each of them felt like they've fallen into the same rut of focusing less of creative or diverse settings and characters and more on making callbacks to what's profitable and would make sense to put on a toy line or Tshirt. No more Koops, or Blaze and mostly just G1 Pokemon stuff.

 

[Animegamingnerd]

Nah, I’m pretty sure Overwatch is out. Jeff recently talked about wanting Tracer in Smash. If she was in, he wouldn’t say a thing.

Yup, him saying he wants Tracer in Smash just very recently even though we have known since January that the 6 characters have already been decided on, is a strong point against her and the theory she was suppose to be FP5, even though as I said if anyone was going to be FP5 instead of Byleth it was going to be Min Min due to her being the next character and even that is a massive reach due to the 6 month gap between the release of Byleth and Min Min which made it the longest gap between DLC characters and in my opinion Byleth starting off of season 2 would make more sense then Min Min due to Three Houses both selling better and being more critically acclaim then ARMS.

 

[Dinoman96]

I think SEGA's conservative nature with Sonic these days is the result of the following:

This game

and this guy

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Honestly every gaming era is rife with developers copying what's popular. 80s and 90s were filled with platform mascots either 2D or 3D. Numerous First Person Shooters flooded the market in the aughts and early teens, and we've been overrun with open world sandbox types for a good long while now. 3D platformers seem like a quality novelty now because there are so few of them and even the least regarded ones in the past five years are either hit and miss (Yooka Laylee, Spongebob) or just aggressively meh (Sonic Forces) at worst. We're ways away from a Bubsy 3D being infamously bad for the genre.

 

[Animegamingnerd]

I think SEGA's conservative nature with Sonic these days is the result of the following:

This game

and this guy

Or maybe Sonic Team is just not a good studio, the fact they often repeat the very same mistakes they are often criticize for over and over again, while other Sega studios like Ryu Ga Gotoku studios have a much more consistent track record in both quality and quantity should speak volumes on how bad Sonic Team is mismanaged.

 

[Cap'n Jack]

I've always felt that Tails or Eggman should come before Shadow tbh. I'd pick Eggman due to being another villain and a 3rd party one to boot. He's also one of the most iconic video game villains alongside Bowser and Sephiroth and would bring more to the table then Tails would especially being another mech user.

The reason I feel Shadow was looked at more us due to how easy he would be implicated as a echo to Sonic despite also working as a semi-clone or his own moveset.

Egg man would be my most wanted 2nd Sonic rep. Obviously as he would be another villain, but also he’s the first big mech character (Bowser Jr is smaller and ROB is kinda different than a mech). I’d imagine he’d be a trap/zoner heavyweight archetype.

 

[chocolatejr9]

I think SEGA's conservative nature with Sonic these days is the result of the following:

This game

and this guy

Penders... I'll never forgive you...

Which is weird, because I never read the comics.