Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

A character that wears a crown, but only in one of their alts (or a few ig)?

Spoiler: hmmm

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No time for forgivness

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

maybe the character wears a crown in one of their alts

Spoiler

It all makes sense now!

 

[cashregister9]

maybe the character wears a crown in one of their alts

Spoiler:

 

[Rie Sonomura]

A character that wears a crown, but only in one of their alts (or a few ig)?

Spoiler: hmmm

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he's not for good boys and girls

as for the daisy thing, i can indeed confirm. here's daisy's alts in game including the white dress:

but here, the white dress crown is gold:

as for the patch on her hair, it could mean the crown's a larger diameter

 

[Swamp Sensei]

At this point who is the bigger request?

Bandana Waddle Dee or Isaac?

 

[Cosmic77]

A character that wears a crown, but only in one of their alts (or a few ig)?

Spoiler: hmmm

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Of all the Persona villains, Kamoshida is the one they'd be most likely to avoid like the plague. Design aside, it'd be very difficult to...accurately portray his character while keeping the game's age rating down.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Smash has a glitch

People assume the glitch must involve the character and speculate which newcomer could use the character as a base

Newcomer gets revealed, obviously taking something from the character with the glitch

Datamining shows that the newcomer used a different character's base entirely and that they've got little to no similarities to who they use as a base, showing that the glitch was just a glitch


How many ****ing times must this cycle continue until people finally ****ing realize that glitches are natural parts of games because games are hard to make

 

[Rie Sonomura]

At this point who is the bigger request?

Bandana Waddle Dee or Isaac?

Isaac's support kinda slowed down after his AT reveal, and idk about his Japan presence, he seems more popular in the west. BWD is popular in both the West AND Japan so I'd say BWD

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

That Captain Falcon glitch in 7.0 was crazy, wasn't it?

 

[snowgolem]

he's not for good boys and girls

as for the daisy thing, i can indeed confirm. here's daisy's alts in game including the white dress:

but here, the white dress crown is gold:
View attachment 280241

as for the patch on her hair, it could mean the crown's a larger diameter

Oh, that’s not a glitch. The wrong crown color has been a thing for a while now. But the missing crown can mean they were using Daisy’s hair as a base for someone else, who doesn’t use a crown. My guess is Arle tbh.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Smash has a glitch

People assume the glitch must involve the character and speculate which newcomer could use the character as a base

Newcomer gets revealed, obviously taking something from the character with the glitch

Datamining shows that the newcomer used a different character's base entirely and that they've got little to no similarities to who they use as a base, showing that the glitch was just a glitch


How many ****ing times must this cycle continue until people finally ****ing realize that glitches are natural parts of games because games are hard to make

Have I ever told you the definition of insanity?

 

[snowgolem]

Smash has a glitch

People assume the glitch must involve the character and speculate which newcomer could use the character as a base

Newcomer gets revealed, obviously taking something from the character with the glitch

Datamining shows that the newcomer used a different character's base entirely and that they've got little to no similarities to who they use as a base, showing that the glitch was just a glitch


How many ****ing times must this cycle continue until people finally ****ing realize that glitches are natural parts of games because games are hard to make

That Captain Falcon glitch in 7.0 was crazy, wasn't it?

Let us speculate on stuff, jesus christ.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

At this point who is the bigger request?

Bandana Waddle Dee or Isaac?

Isaac only has the hardcore Western crowd, from what I've heard Golden Sun isn't as fondly remembered in Japan and they adore Kirby, so Bandana Dee is larger due to casual appeal

 

[SharkLord]

At this point who is the bigger request?

Bandana Waddle Dee or Isaac?

That's a good question. I think Bandana Dee's more popular right now because of Isaac's Assist trophy taking the wind out of his sails, but before that happened I think Isaac had a fair bit more support than Bandana Dee.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Isaac only has the hardcore Western crowd, from what I've heard Golden Sun isn't as fondly remembered in Japan and they adore Kirby, so Bandana Dee is larger due to casual appeal

Is Geno popular in Japanese circles?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Let us speculate on stuff, jesus christ.

Screaming about every glitch because it proves a character's coming despite it literally never happening before isn't speculation, it's the equivelant of going "Guys, it rained today, therefore the next Smash character must have something to do with rain!"

 

[snowgolem]

Screaming about every glitch because it proves a character's coming despite it literally never happening before isn't speculation, it's the equivelant of going "Guys, it rained today, therefore the next Smash character must have something to do with rain!"

We aren’t screaming about every glitch. We’re acknowledging that characters who the newcomer has been based on has had glitches in the past, so even if it’s by a small amount, we discuss the character who we think’s chance has increased. We’re seeing a pattern, even if inconsistent, and using that for speculation. So yes, it is speculation, unlike a random guess.
Geno fans literally thought Geno would get in on the day of a festival, and nobody went to try and dismiss their speculation.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Is Geno popular in Japanese circles?

I don't think so. Geno seems to be mostly western appeal too

 

[Calamitas]

maybe the character wears a crown in one of their alts

Spoiler

Imagine a picture of Bowsette here, I'm too lazy to dig one up now

One of her alts would be just regular Bowser without a crown.

 

[Gribbo]

Is it listed anywhere what characters each character was built off of? I know Piranha Plant was Bowser Jr and Banjo was Ridley, but it'd be interesting to see the whole roster.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

does anyone have a source for Banjo being based on Ridley tho? I keep hearing it but no definite source. Link being Hero's base is pretty obvious

and I wonder who Terry and Byleth's were. there WAS supposedly a Simon/Richter glitch before Byleth's reveal involving their chain whips, which Byleth also uses

 

[snowgolem]

Is it listed anywhere what characters each character was built off of? I know Piranha Plant was Bowser Jr and Banjo was Ridley, but it'd be interesting to see the whole roster.

A lot of them are just taken from previous games that they were in.
And it may come as a surprise, but...
Ganondorf was based off of Captain Falcon.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I don’t think there’s been a case where a character-based glitch resulted in a direct connection to a later-released fighter.

I could be wrong, of course. If I recall this originally started with the idea that Mii Swordfighter and Duck Hunt has glitches, and therefore suggested that Hero and Banjo would be based on them retroactively. To my knowledge, neither of those characters actually had a direct connection to Hero or Banjo. It was a nothing burger.

My personal opinion doesn’t really matter, but if the speculation in question isn’t based in something, or is based on something that isn’t actually an indicator of a future playable character (which is usually pretty biased anyway) then that’s arguably worse than a random guess; it’s effectively misinformation that is realistically based on nothing. But knowing how rabid Smash fans are, they latch onto most anything, especially if it means their most wanted “is in!”

I mean hey, talk about whatever you’d like! But be careful that you don’t let certain things convince you certain characters are certainly happening.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Is Geno popular in Japanese circles?

**** if I know, your post was about BDee and Isaac

We aren’t screaming about every glitch. We’re acknowledging that characters who the newcomer has been based on has had glitches in the past, so even if it’s by a small amount, we discuss the character who we think’s chance has increased. We’re seeing a pattern, even if inconsistent, and using that for speculation. So yes, it is speculation, unlike a random guess.
Geno fans literally thought Geno would get in on the day of a festival, and nobody went to try and dismiss their speculation.

Genuine question here, what pattern? Those glitches have only ever been glitches that have never meant anything, people see a visual glitch with Ness, "omg it has to be a hint", see a visal glitch with Bayonetta, "omg it a hint", we're seeing it on this page about a visual glitch for Daisy, who uses Peach as a base meaning no character would use her specifically as a base anyway and assume she's hinting at a newcomer. This will never mean anything as it never has meant anything, Smash is the only ****ing game with people assuming a glitch has to mean something for the DLC

 

[Among Waddle Dees]

does anyone have a source for Banjo being based on Ridley tho? I keep hearing it but no definite source.

Pretty sure this question about Banjo has been asked multiple times, so I bet it's not true.

Who keeps saying it, anyway? Is it one user?

 

[SKX31]

A character based off of Ness, you say? Looks like we're in for another upgrade.

Real talk, I could easily see model and animation recycling being more prevalent this pass. Things seem to be a bit more low-key this go around, so I think we're gonna see Sakurai and co. use dev tricks like that to speed up development and make things go smoother. However, I'm not entirely sure we can use it as a method of predicting who's coming next when we have no context of which parts of the character are being reused.

Then again, they used similar dev tricks in FP1: B-K has a lot of attacks that look similar to Ridley's, Joker's stance and down-tilt looks like it's adapted from Cloud while his F-Smash looks a lot like Falco's, a couple of Hero's sword attacks are borrowed from Link - jab and dash attack most notably - and he has a similar f-tilt as Snake etc. And before FP1 too*. So I don't think that could be used as a guaranteed method to look for characters.

(*That said, a lot of characters borrow from others and wind up becoming somewhat of a combination from different characters. Sonic is a great example due to his last minute addition in Brawl - he shares his F-Air with Falco, his U-tilt looks similar to Falcon's Up-Smash, and a Down-Smash that looks decently alike Fox / Falco's etc. I don't blame Sakurai and co for doing this generally, since it's generally a time-saver and there's often only so much one can do uniquely.)

 

[Noler_Mass]

Geno, Crash, Travis Touchdown, Phoenix Wright, Rayman.

that’s fighter pass 2. You heard it here first.

 

[MooMew64]

Then again, they used similar dev tricks in FP1 (B-K has a lot of attacks that look similar to Ridley's, Joker's stance and down-tilt looks like it's adapted from Cloud while his F-Smash looks a lot like Falco's, a couple of Hero's sword attacks are borrowed from Link and he has a similar f-tilt as Snake etc.) and before FP1*. So I don't think that could be used as a guaranteed method to look for characters.

(*That said, a lot of characters borrow from others. Sonic is a great example due to his last minute addition in Brawl - he shares his F-Air with Falco, his U-tilt looks similar to Falcon's Up-Smash, and a Down-Smash that looks decently alike Fox / Falco's etc. I don't blame Sakurai and co for doing this generally, since it's generally a time-saver and there's often only so much one can do uniquely.)

Exactly. It's a very common practice that developers will use, especially on a tight schedule.

I really wouldn't overthink these similarities or bugs though. They really have no bearing on who is and isn't coming, especially since we can only be aware of these similarities in hindsight after we get our hands on a new character.

 

[snowgolem]

I don’t think there’s been a case where a character-based glitch resulted in a direct connection to a later-released fighter.

I could be wrong, of course. If I recall this originally started with the idea that Mii Swordfighter and Duck Hunt has glitches, and therefore suggested that Hero and Banjo would be based on them retroactively. To my knowledge, neither of those characters actually had a direct connection to Hero or Banjo. It was a nothing burger.

My personal opinion doesn’t really matter, but if the speculation in question isn’t based in something, or is based on something that isn’t actually an indicator of a future playable character (which is usually pretty biased anyway) then that’s arguably worse than a random guess; it’s effectively misinformation that is realistically based on nothing. But knowing how rabid Smash fans are, they latch onto most anything, especially if it means their most wanted “is in!”

I mean hey, talk about whatever you’d like! But be careful that you don’t let certain things convince you certain characters are certainly happening.

You also have to consider the fact that they’re working from home. We’ve already seen a glitch with Min Min, so if they were using Daisy as a base for another character, it would make sense that she would have as many glitches as she has, rather than just one or two.

Genuine question here, what pattern? Those glitches have only ever been glitches that have never meant anything, people see a visual glitch with Ness, "omg it has to be a hint", see a visal glitch with Bayonetta, "omg it a hint", we're seeing it on this page about a visual glitch for Daisy, who uses Peach as a base meaning no character would use her specifically as a base anyway and assume she's hinting at a newcomer. This will never mean anything as it never has meant anything, Smash is the only ****ing game with people assuming a glitch has to mean something for the DLC

-Character gets in
—Wait, didn’t that one character that they might’ve been based on have a glitch?
-Character gets in
—Wait, didn’t that one character that they might’ve been based on have a glitch?

That’s all it needs. Two occurrences is a pattern. So yes, speculation can absolutely be based on this, even if it isn’t 100% reliable.
Smash is the only game where people will try to dismiss your speculation for literally no reason. People have speculated for even dumber reasons and it flies right by. I don’t understand how speculation on something which has happened before seeming to happen again is so bad.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

You also have to consider the fact that they’re working from home. We’ve already seen a glitch with Min Min, so if they were using Daisy as a base for another character, it would make sense that she would have as many glitches as she has, rather than just one or two.

-Character gets in
—Wait, didn’t that one character that they might’ve been based on have a glitch?
-Character gets in
—Wait, didn’t that one character that they might’ve been based on have a glitch?

That’s all it needs. Two occurrences is a pattern. So yes, speculation can absolutely be based on this, even if it isn’t 100% reliable.
Smash is the only game where people will try to dismiss your speculation for literally no reason. People have speculated for even dumber reasons and it flies right by. I don’t understand how speculation on something which has happened before seeming to happen again is so bad.

Min Min just t-poses though, T-pose glitches are more common than you think. i remember seeing a lot of T-pose glitches of various characters when kirby's also on the field and a custom stage is used. for that one it could be that Min Min still has some kinks to work out, like when Terry using his final Smash against the Ice Climbers would freeze the game

 

[Among Waddle Dees]

Calling it now, it's gonna be Adeleine. She will be roughly Ness shaped and have a similar hairstyle to Daisy.

Whether this post is satire is up to you.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

does the Ness glitch still happen post-Min Min or not? out of curiosity

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I don't care if he's in or not and the only thing I'd be excited about is the potential Bowser's Castle stage we might get out of it.

Chances are his stage would be Forest Maze.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

You also have to consider the fact that they’re working from home. We’ve already seen a glitch with Min Min, so if they were using Daisy as a base for another character, it would make sense that she would have as many glitches as she has, rather than just one or two.

-Character gets in
—Wait, didn’t that one character that they might’ve been based on have a glitch?
-Character gets in
—Wait, didn’t that one character that they might’ve been based on have a glitch?

That’s all it needs. Two occurrences is a pattern. So yes, speculation can absolutely be based on this, even if it isn’t 100% reliable.
Smash is the only game where people will try to dismiss your speculation for literally no reason. People have speculated for even dumber reasons and it flies right by. I don’t understand how speculation on something which has happened before seeming to happen again is so bad.

Your example of a pattern hasn't happened. None of the characters we've gotten as DLC are based on characters who had the glitches people assumed had to be hints. Glitches are just glitches, they've never meant anything for DLC nor will they ever mean anything for DLC. It's just Smash fans being exceptionally stupid as no other community ever does this because they understand that games will always have glitches. When we get our final character and some glitches are found, would you use it as evidence that more's on the way even if Sakurai himself says the team's stopped development permanently?

 

[SharkLord]

I'm mostly using glitch theory for fun, and I know it's not likely to actually result in anything. It's better than defaulting to Geno debates for the 348764th time, right?

 

[7NATOR]

does the Ness glitch still happen post-Min Min or not? out of curiosity

The one with the eyes?

to be honest, besides that one video, I don't think I've or anyone else has seen the Ness Glitch

 

[snowgolem]

Min Min just t-poses though, T-pose glitches are more common than you think. i remember seeing a lot of T-pose glitches of various characters when kirby's also on the field and a custom stage is used. for that one it could be that Min Min still has some kinks to work out, like when Terry using his final Smash against the Ice Climbers would freeze the game

I was just using Min Min’s glitch as an example. She was being focused on in this patch, so any glitch is a pretty big thing. but like you said with Terry, oversights do happen. But so many glitches with Daisy just don’t make sense unless they were trying to do something with her. IIRC, she had absolutely nothing changed in the patch notes. So all these glitches might point to her being a base as a character. I don’t think it’s 100% true confirmed or anything, but denying it just seems kind of... dumb.

Your example of a pattern hasn't happened. None of the characters we've gotten as DLC are based on characters who had the glitches people assumed had to be hints. Glitches are just glitches, they've never meant anything for DLC nor will they ever mean anything for DLC. It's just Smash fans being exceptionally stupid as no other community ever does this because they understand that games will always have glitches. When we get our final character and some glitches are found, would you use it as evidence that more's on the way even if Sakurai himself says the team's stopped development permanently?

What? You’re basically just saying don’t speculate. Sure glitches happen, but some of these glitches don’t make sense when these characters haven’t been touched according to the patch notes. It’s okay to speculate about something that doesn’t make sense. We don’t know what goes on behind the scenes, so we speculate about it. We don’t think every glitch means something (at least, I don’t). But when a character has a ton of glitches for seemingly no reason, we try to understand why. Speculation. Speculating is absolutely fine, when it’s at least based on something.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

The one with the eyes?

to be honest, besides that one video, I don't think I've or anyone else has seen the Ness Glitch

i think it's that Bayonetta's and Daisy's glitches seem to have tried and true methods of replication, while Ness from what I can tell is 100% random

 

[Cosmic77]

Guys, I think we're getting T-shaped Tetrimino as a character!

Jokes aside, weird stuff happens. I don't know why Bayo, Ness, and Daisy are getting these weird glitches, but I doubt there's any significant reason for why they're happening.

 

[7NATOR]

i think it's that Bayonetta's and Daisy's glitches seem to have tried and true methods of replication, while Ness from what I can tell is 100% random

Probably. Still though, even as random as it is, it seemed to only occur once from what ive seen. Perhaps we can try to experiment and replicate it

On the topic of Daisy. Peach, her Echo counterpart i don't believe has as many glitches. Speculation is that there's some physics thing Daisy has that Peach doesn't have. This physics thing also seemed to affect Marth as well, so I don't know