Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Cap'n Jack]

I’ve been following the stock trade, and investors still seem pretty confident in Nintendo. There has been any real dips since it surged in March with the release of Animal Crossing. Makes me confident Nintendo still has big plans for this year.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Mass Destruction changed 'Damn right' to 'Alright'. As for wine, good old Drac has a glass of the stuff in the game

I guess Uncontrollable can be left as is then

Give Me All Your Love would definitely remove the "feel me when..." (I'm not typing the rest of that sentence out) verse, and maybe change "nasty hands" in the bridge before the chorus to something else

Make or Break... it's a little more vague. "Take off your shirt" seems like it's aimed at a male listener but they may change that anyway

and if they ever add Devil Trigger either with Playable Dante or PreMiium Dante, they are SO removing "im the bomb you can't defuse" verse cause imagine if someone heard that while someone was playing Smash on a plane (or they could simply use the music video edit)

 

[GoodGrief741]

I’ve been following the stock trade, and investors still seem pretty confident in Nintendo. There has been any real dips since it surged in March with the release of Animal Crossing. Makes me confident Nintendo still has big plans for this year.

I mean, that's to be determined in their upcoming investors meeting. If Nintendo comes out and says they got nothing, or fails to convince them that it's worth owning Nintendo stock in the next quarter, stocks will take a dive.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Man it's like once a week with Geno arguments huh

Always has been.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Say, if nobody minds me asking, what even IS the evidence for Geno? I peek into the Geno thread every now and then, and them seem pretty convinced that he's coming this Pass, some even claiming as FP7. Problem is, I don't know half of what they're talking about, so I can't have an opinion.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Say, if nobody minds me asking, what even IS the evidence for Geno? I peek into the Geno thread every now and then, and them seem pretty convinced that he's coming this Pass, some even claiming as FP7. Problem is, I don't know half of what they're talking about, so I can't have an opinion.

Same thing for every other fanbase "I want him so he's likely"

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Say, if nobody minds me asking, what even IS the evidence for Geno? I peek into the Geno thread every now and then, and them seem pretty convinced that he's coming this Pass, some even claiming as FP7. Problem is, I don't know half of what they're talking about, so I can't have an opinion.

do you really wanna open that can of worms?

tl;dr it's mostly circumstantial. such as some SMRPG tracks being taken down and some Brawl mod with Geno getting C&D'd

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Say, if nobody minds me asking, what even IS the evidence for Geno? I peek into the Geno thread every now and then, and them seem pretty convinced that he's coming this Pass, some even claiming as FP7. Problem is, I don't know half of what they're talking about, so I can't have an opinion.

I wrote a pretty good about that that you can refer to in my Second Square Enix Character Argument (link in signature).

However, a lot of the evidence that the Geno thread uses is circumstantial evidence and statements from pseudo-insiders. Stuff that ultimately will have no bearing on whether or not he actually gets in.

 

[Koopaul]

I have no stake in the Geno discussion. I don't care if he's in or not and the only thing I'd be excited about is the potential Bowser's Castle stage we might get out of it.

However I do want to say that Geno is one of those legendary requested characters that has had years and years of support. It really does seem like they want to make this Smash the "complete" package. Checking off characters like Ridley and Banjo. Geno is one of them. Whether that's good enough will be revealed to us in the next year and a half. Unlike Banjo and Ridley, Geno does have more barriers.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if that circumstantial evidence pointed to Geno's costume returning, this time Premium with a more faithful recreation of his face and a song or two included with him

 

[Cosmic77]

The biggest factor in Geno's percieved likeliness is the same as Ridley. K. Rool, or Banjo. He's been fairly popular for a while, therefore, he's considered to be one of the most likely characters.

That being said, Geno has been "one of the most likely characters" since Ridley. People thought he was all but guaranteed for the base game, and no one seems to be fazed by the fact that Geno would've missed out if the first pass was the end of the DLC.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if that circumstantial evidence pointed to Geno's costume returning, this time Premium with a more faithful recreation of his face and a song or two included with him

I honestly think this would the best compromise with whatever's held Geno back all of these years. It'd be an easy, low cost means of satisfying a large majority of Geno fans. Considering there's precedent for a Geno Mii Costume, it'd also be low risk and easy to achieve.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Isaac and Shadow were at one point considered no-brainers too, moreso cause the former was totally absent from 4; no AT, no Trophy, nothing, only the GS medley song. And they both had almost Ridley/K. Rool/Banjo/Geno levels of support (again, moreso with Isaac). then both their ATs returned...

 

[Wunderwaft]

Say, if nobody minds me asking, what even IS the evidence for Geno? I peek into the Geno thread every now and then, and them seem pretty convinced that he's coming this Pass, some even claiming as FP7. Problem is, I don't know half of what they're talking about, so I can't have an opinion.

If you mean strong evidence there isn't. My gut tells me he's in though so he's probably in.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

i am curious as to why Saki's AT was cut tbh. licensing issues with Treasure? are they even still around?

if they are still around I guess I can see Saki's AT returning for Smash 6 unless he amasses a TON of support

 

[Dark Bagel]

Man it's like once a week with Geno arguments huh

Yeah, he's a popular choice, but maybe calling focus to other potential fighters based on toys/puppets every once in a while wouldn't hurt either. Like Castlevania Dawn of Sorrow's Puppetmaster. He seems fun. And creepy. Fun creepy... Freepy.

 

[Oppih]

i am curious as to why Saki's AT was cut tbh. licensing issues with Treasure? are they even still around?

if they are still around I guess I can see Saki's AT returning for Smash 6 unless he amasses a TON of support

It's pretty strange about which AT's they cut. Isaac was cut in 4 before they brought it back in Ultimate and Saki is cut all together now.

I do wonder what logic goes behind which AT's they pick though. One of the strangest omissions that doesn't have an assist trophy at all is Chibi-Robo or any Skip character in general.

 

[Aetheri]

Geno being one of the few characters that Sakurai actually mentioned as a character he wanted in Smash. As well as him continuing to answer fan requests from Ridley to K Rool to the Chrom and Dark Samus echoes to then adding Banjo (a previous no hoper cuz Microsoft) in the first Pass. And with Square Enix still adding in new characters such as "getting Hero outta the way" in the first pass. And Geno's mii costume so far still absent. It seemingly opens the door to Geno being added as that "heavily requested" fighter in the next pass. Which so far has only 1 out of 6 fighters revealed which means there's 5 chances for this to happen.

I personally don't care for Geno but at this point he seems pretty likely as he has a lot going for him moving forward. All of it is circumstantial and mostly based off of theories and speculation but that doesn't stop people from believing he has a shot. Now imagine if you are one of those who are super biased for the character and you had all this to go off of. He may as well be 'guaranteed'

 

[Rie Sonomura]

It's pretty strange about which AT's they cut. Isaac was cut in 4 before they brought it back in Ultimate and Saki is cut all together now.

I do wonder what logic goes behind which AT's they pick though. One of the strangest omissions that doesn't have an assist trophy at all is Chibi-Robo or any Skip character in general.

Ray or whatever Custom Robo character was an AT in Brawl, hasn't been an AT since Brawl iirc. we did get a Ray costume though

 

[MBRedboy31]

i am curious as to why Saki's AT was cut tbh. licensing issues with Treasure? are they even still around?

if they are still around I guess I can see Saki's AT returning for Smash 6 unless he amasses a TON of support

I mean, they didn't completely cut Saki's presence from the game; they represented him with a Mii costume instead of with an AT. It's very possible that they simply had other priorities for which characters should be AT's. Or, alternatively, they couldn't get the rights to Saki's voice acting, so a Mii costume was the best alternative since Mii costumes don't need their own voice acting.

 

[MooMew64]

The Geno situation is interesting. There's obviously a group of fans that are very passionate for him, but he also has extremely stiff competition. It also doesn't help he hasn't had a meaningful role in over...close to 20 years now?

TBH I feel he isn't as comparable to Banjo as some believe he is. Banjo is the face of an entire franchise that has multiple titles and had the support of his parent company for inclusion. Geno is a one-off side character in a 20+ year old Mario spin-off, and his own parent company doesn't even acknowledge he exists. I'm not saying he'll never happen: Far from it! I think his odds now are the best it's ever been. However, I think he is far, far, far from a lock.

 

[CannonStreak]

The Geno situation is interesting. There's obviously a group of fans that are very passionate for him, but he also has extremely stiff competition. It also doesn't help he hasn't had a meaningful role in over...close to 20 years now?

TBH I feel he isn't as comparable to Banjo as some believe he is. Banjo is the face of an entire franchise that has multiple titles and had the support of his parent company for inclusion. Geno is a one-off side character in a 20+ year old Mario spin-off, and his own parent company doesn't even acknowledge he exists. I'm not saying he'll never happen: Far from it! I think his odds now are the best it's ever been. However, I think he is far, far, far from a lock.

Speaking of Geno, here is something I want to say...

Remember Fighters' pass 1 and pass 2 so far? As well as the last three characters for Smash 4 DLC? It can be argued that four of the characters in Fighters Pass 1 were modeled after other characters. which were human, and this does not count Banjo-Kazooie. Min-Min is said to be modeled after Captain Falcon in some way, or maybe another character. Either way, the last three characters for Smash 4 DLC; Cloud, Corrin and Bayonetta; were all modeled after existing characters, with Geno coming in as a Mii Costume. Depending on who is next in Fighters Pass 2, if they follow the same route, Geno could be a Mii Costume again if they are modeling characters after other ones. Some have said in the Geno thread that there is a character that could be coming that could be based off Ness, due to glitch based reasons, and they say it could be Geno. However, it could be anyone. Plus, Geno may not exactly be Ness in most aspects.

Not to call Nintendo or Sakurai lazy, to be honest, as they are both far from that, but I think what I said makes sense, assuming that they do in fact go this route. Basing character models off others wouldn't exactly be anything new here.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Speaking of Geno, here is something I want to say...

Remember Fighters' pass 1 and pass 2 so far? As well as the last three characters for Smash 4 DLC? It can be argued that four of the characters in Fighters Pass 1 were modeled after other characters. which were human, and this does not count Banjo-Kazooie. Min-Min is said to be modeled after Captain Falcon in some way, or maybe another character. Either way, the last three characters for Smash 4 DLC; Cloud, Corrin and Bayonetta; were all modeled after existing characters, with Geno coming in as a Mii Costume. Depending on who is next in Fighters Pass 2, if they follow the same route, Geno could be a Mii Costume again if they are modeling characters after other ones. Some have said in the Geno thread that there is a character that could be coming that could be based off Ness, due to glitch based reasons, and they say it could be Geno. However, it could be anyone. Plus, Geno may not exactly be Ness in most aspects.

Not to call Nintendo or Sakurai lazy, to be honest, as they are both far from that, but I think what I said makes sense, assuming that they do in fact go this route. Basing character models off others wouldn't exactly be anything new here.

also, there was a Bayonetta glitch shortly before Min Min was dropped, but as you said, she used CF as a base. likewise with the Duck Hunt glitch for Banjo but Banjo's real base was (supposedly) Ridley.

i think the glitches are for borrowed animations, not models/skeletons

which if anything makes me think the Ness glitch is hinting at Neku instead, while Neku uses Cloud as his model base. and yes i shamelessly admit that's my bias talking

 

[MarioRaccoon]

The problem with that Sakurai quote about Geno is that he wanted to add him during Brawl development, that was 15/14 years ago (2005/2006 was when the game started their development) and you know, people can changed their opinion with time. I wanted to be an astronaut 15 years ago but I studied another career. I think that Sakurai simply wanted to add a fighter with a gun, and for Smash 4 they opted for both Megaman and Mii Gunner.

But I know that he has great demand in smash hardcore fanbase, so his chances are 50-50 just like every character.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Speaking of Geno, here is something I want to say...

Remember Fighters' pass 1 and pass 2 so far? As well as the last three characters for Smash 4 DLC? It can be argued that four of the characters in Fighters Pass 1 were modeled after other characters. which were human, and this does not count Banjo-Kazooie. Min-Min is said to be modeled after Captain Falcon in some way, or maybe another character. Either way, the last three characters for Smash 4 DLC; Cloud, Corrin and Bayonetta; were all modeled after existing characters, with Geno coming in as a Mii Costume. Depending on who is next in Fighters Pass 2, if they follow the same route, Geno could be a Mii Costume again if they are modeling characters after other ones. Some have said in the Geno thread that there is a character that could be coming that could be based off Ness, due to glitch based reasons, and they say it could be Geno. However, it could be anyone. Plus, Geno may not exactly be Ness in most aspects.

Not to call Nintendo or Sakurai lazy, to be honest, as they are both far from that, but I think what I said makes sense, assuming that they do in fact go this route. Basing character models off others wouldn't exactly be anything new here.

So what you're saying is that Geno is from Earthbound.

 

[MooMew64]

Speaking of Geno, here is something I want to say...

Remember Fighters' pass 1 and pass 2 so far? As well as the last three characters for Smash 4 DLC? It can be argued that four of the characters in Fighters Pass 1 were modeled after other characters. which were human, and this does not count Banjo-Kazooie. Min-Min is said to be modeled after Captain Falcon in some way, or maybe another character. Either way, the last three characters for Smash 4 DLC; Cloud, Corrin and Bayonetta; were all modeled after existing characters, with Geno coming in as a Mii Costume. Depending on who is next in Fighters Pass 2, if they follow the same route, Geno could be a Mii Costume again if they are modeling characters after other ones. Some have said in the Geno thread that there is a character that could be coming that could be based off Ness, due to glitch based reasons, and they say it could be Geno. However, it could be anyone. Plus, Geno may not exactly be Ness in most aspects.

Not to call Nintendo or Sakurai lazy, to be honest, as they are both far from that, but I think what I said makes sense, assuming that they do in fact go this route. Basing character models off others wouldn't exactly be anything new here.

A character based off of Ness, you say? Looks like we're in for another upgrade.

Real talk, I could easily see model and animation recycling being more prevalent this pass. Things seem to be a bit more low-key this go around, so I think we're gonna see Sakurai and co. use dev tricks like that to speed up development and make things go smoother. However, I'm not entirely sure we can use it as a method of predicting who's coming next when we have no context of which parts of the character are being reused.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

there's also a Daisy glitch where her skirt clips short, but that could lend to literally anyone at this point (probably female) so it wouldn't be indicative of any one character in particular

 

[CannonStreak]

So what you're saying is that Geno is from Earthbound.

No, the Geno made with Ness' model was from someone else in the Geno thread. I was just going by what I heard, if it doesn't hurt.

That said, one other thing: Let me bring up this...

There are also more things to consider than character sales.
Even looking into sales alone, we have the sale of the character, the sale of the fighter pass, the sale of more game units (ultimate), the sale of switch online, the sale of the merchandise (amiibo), and the sale of the actual system itself.
Outside of immediate sales, we have to consider how inclusion of characters could strengthen Nintendo's own IPs down the line, strengthen the company, strengthen their partnerships, strengthen their stock value...

There are truly many factors to consider, and I'm sure not all characters are meant to serve each purpose.

To add to that, what would there to be to gain from Geno if he got in? I mean, he has not appeared in a game in a long time outside that Mario & Luigi cameo, and though a retro character, at least other characters from dead franchises, like Duck Hunt, Game and Watch, ROB and such were not side characters, and had big roles in their game, and Banjo-Kazooie appeared in more than one game.

But, even if they did bring Geno into Smash Bros. Ultimate, people would obviously want to see more of him, not just in Smash, but in another game altogether. It is not impossible, but it may be difficult, for I am sure I heard Geno can't be used by Square-Enix in anything non-Smash without the cooperation of Nintendo, at least that is what I heard. Regardless, Geno was made for a game that was made by the collaboration of Square and Nintendo, and is more of a Mario character, so I can't see what else Square, now Square-Enix, would use him for. Square-Enix does not even own Mario. If Square-Enix is aware of this, this might add a little reluctance to adding Geno in Smash. Not completely, still likely he could get in, in fact, but what would they do with him after to further please fans?

 

[Deleted member]

Same thing for every other fanbase "I want him so he's likely"

"I want them so they're unlikely" is the only way to speculate.

 

[SharkLord]

there's also a Daisy glitch where her skirt clips short, but that could lend to literally anyone at this point (probably female) so it wouldn't be indicative of any one character in particular

Well, 2B was suggested for similar dress length and maybe the self-destruct mechanic, since the glitch happened because Daisy got punched by Little Mac, and Reimu was suggested for the floating. Of course, it could just be nothing.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Well, 2B was suggested for similar dress length and maybe the self-destruct mechanic, since the glitch happened because Daisy got punched by Little Mac, and Reimu was suggested for the floating. Of course, it could just be nothing.

i think i saw some ppl suggest Arle from Puyo too, no idea why

could just mean the character wears a short skirt or shorts

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

and if they ever add Devil Trigger either with Playable Dante or PreMiium Dante, they are SO removing "im the bomb you can't defuse" verse cause imagine if someone heard that while someone was playing Smash on a plane (or they could simply use the music video edit)

They have a MGS character as a spirit

Spoiler

that has a bomb in her.

That line is no problem

 

[snowgolem]

Well I want Neku Sakuraba
so Geno is unlikely

 

[MooMew64]

"I want them so they're unlikely" is the only way to speculate.

Eeeeeeyyyy, someone who gets my style of speculation!

 

[snowgolem]

They have a MGS character as a spirit

Spoiler

that has a bomb in her.

That line is no problem

bomberman is an assist trophy that uses bombs and snake is a character that uses bombs, rated m for mature

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Broke: Daisy has a glitch where her dress skirt becomes shorter
Woke:

has THIS been discussed before?

 

[snowgolem]

Broke: Daisy has a glitch where her dress skirt becomes shorter
Woke:
View attachment 280233
has THIS been discussed before?

Papagenos brought it up in a video, but other than that I don’t think so. What could it even mean? We’re getting a character with a hairstyle similar to Daisy’s?

 

[chocolatejr9]

Broke: Daisy has a glitch where her dress skirt becomes shorter
Woke:
View attachment 280233
has THIS been discussed before?

I know! We're getting a Wedding Daisy alt in Mario Kart Tour!

Wait, you wanted a Smash theory? Um... yeah, I got nothing.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Papagenos brought it up in a video, but other than that I don’t think so. What could it even mean? We’re getting a character with a hairstyle similar to Daisy’s?

maybe the character wears a crown in one of their alts

 

[snowgolem]

maybe the character wears a crown in one of their alts

A character that wears a crown, but only in one of their alts (or a few ig)?

Spoiler: hmmm