Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[JarBear]

I dunno what Nintendo will do, but I still have my suspicions that they will do something before their investor’s meeting. Or at least hope they will.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

I just go by this, good things come to those who wait, so Im waiting. I aint in no rush for news

 

[AceAttorney9000]

About that Nintendo Direct Partners Showcase thing, are there supposed to be three parts to it?

I asked because I think this Partnership Showcase is a two parter, with a general Direct coming in August.

As I speculated over the in Geno thread, considering Kelios said that this past Partner Showcase Direct was just the "useless" stuff and that we'd be getting another Direct with first party stuff very soon (and since he was right about a Direct of some sort on the 20th, I'm willing to entertain him on this), I think what we're getting right now is the contents of the initially planned E3 2020 Direct... but split into three different parts...

• The "Useless" Stuff - Announcements and DLC and such that wouldn't excite too many people, and would essentially be considered "filler" in a regular Direct. We literally just got this last week, with only five announcements and Shin Megami Tensei V news being the only big one here.
• The "Good" Stuff - Announcements and DLC and such that would get more people excited. Any non-Mario first party stuff like the Pikmin 3 Switch port, a new 2D Metroid, and a potential Smash DLC Fighter reveal, as well as third-party stuff like Bayonetta 3, No More Heroes III, and Bravely Default II will likely show up here.
• The "Mario" Stuff - Announcements and DLC and such relating to Mario, since they're celebrating his 35th anniversary and all. If the Mario 3D remasters, Super Mario 3D World Deluxe, and anything else Mario-related are all happening, this is where I think they'll show up. Not expecting a Smash announcement here, but if it happens it'll definitely be a Mario character.

 

[zferolie]

any news is good news i say. I just hope the american direct isn't half the size of the japanese direct and all the good stuff cut from it like last time.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

As I speculated over the in Geno thread, considering Kelios said that this past Partner Showcase Direct was just the "useless" stuff and that we'd be getting another Direct with first party stuff very soon (and since he was right about a Direct of some sort on the 20th, I'm willing to entertain him on this), I think what we're getting right now is the contents of the initially planned E3 2020 Direct... but split into three different parts...

• The "Useless" Stuff - Announcements and DLC and such that wouldn't excite too many people, and would essentially be considered "filler" in a regular Direct. We literally just got this last week, with only five announcements and Shin Megami Tensei V news being the only big one here.
• The "Good" Stuff - Announcements and DLC and such that would get more people excited. Any non-Mario first party stuff like the Pikmin 3 Switch port, a new 2D Metroid, and a potential Smash DLC Fighter reveal, as well as third-party stuff like Bayonetta 3, No More Heroes III, and Bravely Default II will likely show up here.
• The "Mario" Stuff - Announcements and DLC and such relating to Mario, since they're celebrating his 35th anniversary and all. If the Mario 3D remasters, Super Mario 3D World Deluxe, and anything else Mario-related are all happening, this is where I think they'll show up. Not expecting a Smash announcement here, but if it happens it'll definitely be a Mario character.

tbh, anything that isnt smash is useless stuff to the fandom

 

[MooMew64]

any news is good news i say. I just hope the american direct isn't half the size of the japanese direct and all the good stuff cut from it like last time.

For the life of me, I will never understand why they would shill a WWE shovelware title over Atelier, a game from a company they have a great relationship with. Heck, they messed over Sakuna too, and that had it's own Treehouse segment last year!

 

[BKupa666]

If I remember correctly, it was because they had to.

Basically the founders of Rare owned 51% of the company, while Nintendo owned 49%.

The founders eventually sold their part to Microsoft while Nintendo was stuck with less than half.

They couldn't really do anything but sell it at that point.

Maybe BKupa666 can provide some insight.

That ownership breakdown is accurate. Rare wanted a larger budget for game development, and Nintendo didn't outright purchase the 51% stake, believing the asking price to be too expensive. Rare began seeking a new buyer, and Microsoft's bid won out. As part of the acquisition process, Nintendo sold its 49% stake back to Rare so Microsoft could acquire the complete company for a reported $375 million.

 

[Koopaul]

In a normal Direct I think it's absolutely important to mix in smaller stuff with the big stuff. Smaller titles need some attention too. If they were to just announce them outside of a Direct no one would even notice them. I'm glad they show off things like BOXBOY within these Directs. I might not have ever noticed that series otherwise.

However this past Direct was pretty much only small things and it was only a a handful of announcements. It seemed pointless to do.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

If you want to look at things through the lens of just SE, Geno basically has always been the most demanded choice, but we got Cloud and then Hero instead. Presumably because those are much more prevalent entities. And to that end, there are still many more prevalent entities within SE.

So what's "worked" for Banjo already hasn't worked for Geno. Twice. So just that by itself invalidates the comparison. Let alone all the other factors like the difference between the stature of the two characters.

Relatively high demand doesn't ensure that a character will sell more units. Unless that demand translates to enough sales to satisfy Nintendo's market goals,
a character needs to appeal to a wider audience.

Even assuming that all else is equal, BK's success can be explained by their higher demand. The same formula can be applied to both situations, and thus the comparison is apt.

Sales (S) = Fan Demand (D) + Appeal to Others (A)​

The main potential difference is Nintendo's sales targets during different DLC periods, but assuming they are equal, Nintendo presumably judged BK's D or A to be bigger than Geno's (huehuehue).

Of course, maybe we shouldn't assume that all else is equal. Maybe Nintendo really does care enough about things like historical significance to affect whom they select for DLC.

 

[Deleted member]

For the life of me, I will never unders why they would shill a WWE shovelware title over Atelier, a game from a company they have a great relationship with.

Even though NoA are in charge of what gets shown on their side of things, Koei-Tecmo usually prioritizes advertising games in Japan first before anywhere else. I wouldn't doubt they only had a slot of advertisement for NoJ since their biggest audience would be tuning into the announcements from them.

 

[-crump-]

For the life of me, I will never unders why they would shill a WWE shovelware title over Atelier, a game from a company they have a great relationship with. Heck, they messed over Sakuna too, and that had it's own Treehouse segment last year!

My guess is that it was a contractual thing, or 2K threw in some extra cash to get in front of an audience. Negative response or not, it still made 5x the amount of people aware of WWE game’s existence than there would be if they threw up the trailer alone on YouTube.

 

[SNEKeater]

Last filler direct gave us Shin Megami Tensei V news. This next one might disappoint a lot of people but I expect there to be an extremely pleased group of longwaiting fans as well.

Bayonetta 3 let's go.

 

[Gribbo]

Another indie showcase, calling it. I can smell the ironic dating sims and pixellated roguelikes already.

 

[zferolie]

Another indie showcase, calling it. I can smell the ironic dating sims and pixellated roguelikes already.

honestly there are some really good indie games out there, better then a lot of main stream games now a days

 

[-crump-]

also I had a dream there was a second Partner Broadcast and the final announcement was No More Heroes 1 and 2 were getting remasters along with NMH3, waking up and finding out that isn’t actually a thing has crushed me.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Showing off and giving a release date for Sports Story would automatically bump up any indie showcase a couple of points for me.

 

[snowgolem]

also I had a dream there was a second Partner Broadcast and the final announcement was No More Heroes 1 and 2 were getting remasters along with NMH3, waking up and finding out that isn’t actually a thing has crushed me.

wtfrick your dreams are nice
i dreamed i was inside the sims and i could see the player looking down at me from the sky, i don’t remember what happened but i do know i had several panic attacks

 

[MooMew64]

All an indie showcase would need to be 10/10 is just for Yacht Club Games to just do literally anything.

Also if by some miracle a OneShot port happened but that game cannot feasible run on anything that isn't a PC so nah lol.

Anyways, nah I don't think we got another indie showcase coming up. Probably another 5-8 minute trailer drop for one big game and filler like last week.

 

[snowgolem]

Wait, was there a direct announced/leaked while I was asleep or smth? What’s with all the direct talk?

 

[chocolatejr9]

All an indie showcase would need to be 10/10 is just for Yacht Club Games to just do literally anything.

Also if by some miracle a OneShot port happened but that game cannot feasible run on anything that isn't a PC so nah lol.

Anyways, nah I don't think we got another indie showcase coming up. Probably another 5-8 minute trailer drop for one big game and filler like last week.

Say, if you were to pick, what would that "big trailer" be?

 

[Gribbo]

Wait, was there a direct announced/leaked while I was asleep or smth? What’s with all the direct talk?

When was the last time we didn't have direct talk?

 

[MooMew64]

Say, if you were to pick, what would that "big trailer" be?

Probably NMH3. Bayo 3 seems to still be in development hell and other than Bravely, I don't see too many other candidates that would really draw in a big crowd.

 

[SKX31]

At this point I'd honestly rather Nintendo just stop doing direct and drop some announcement on twitter and youtube if they're planning to continue the partner mini showcase. What was the point of last one? Yeah, I know that they said it was partner only so I wasn't expecting Mario 35th anniversary, botw 2, Metroid 2d etc. But I and many others were expecting Bayonetta 3 news, No mode Heroes release date, Bravely default 2 etc. When Nintendo announce a direct, expectations will be quite high no matter what they say before.

Si what's the point of doing a "direct" if you plan to show 2 shovelware and 1 remaster of a beloved game and 1 highly anticipated games? All of this could have been drop on twitter. At this point I'd rather see a small announcement on Twitter each week instead of wait 3-4 weeks for a "direct" that will have 1 good announcement.

While I personally wouldn't call Rogue Company shovelware, it's still a game that fits Hi-Rez's motto of "Take a popular multiplayer game and make a more casual Turbo version of it!". It's telling that TKBreezy (Ultimate commentator) is the first guy (AFAIK) who actually got a little hyped about Rogue Company being there. He's fully aware that it's low-budget etc. but likes it because of the pick-up-and-play nature.

Battlegrounds however is a stronger candidate for "shovelware" especially due to what happened with WWE 2K20 and how cobbled together the new team was. I still stand by the point that the latter factor is probably why it was made in the first place - they'll have to wait until 2K22 to "get back to normal" with the new team, so Battlegrounds - as shovelware-y as it is - is effectively a stopgap.

For the life of me, I will never understand why they would shill a WWE shovelware title over Atelier, a game from a company they have a great relationship with. Heck, they messed over Sakuna too, and that had it's own Treehouse segment last year!

Beyond contractual obligations (and what I mentioned above):

2K's in a kinda similar situation as EA was with NBA Live 10 years ago - but 2K's deciding to go with a low key Battlegrounds instead of going all out as EA tried with NBA Elite 11 (and Elite 11 crashed so hard that the Live series has not been the same since - it's part of the reason why 2K could take the NBA title from EA). 2K doesn't want to risk an Elite 11, so they're signalling "sorry we couldn't get a 2K21 out, here's this thing instead" even if it is shovelware-y.

They'd rather limp and get a little money out of it than collapse even further if that makes sense.

 

[SharkLord]

Another indie showcase, calling it. I can smell the ironic dating sims and pixellated roguelikes already.

If I can get some Silksong and Gestalt: Steam and Cinder news, I'd be fine.
none of you know about gestalt do you

 

[chocolatejr9]

If I can get some Silksong and Gestalt: Steam and Cinder news, I'd be fine.
none of you know about gestalt do you

I know who Gestalt is! He's that one guy from The Witcher!

 

[snowgolem]

When was the last time we didn't have direct talk?

Fair enough. It’s just that some people are talking as if there actually is a direct and others are talking hypothetically and it confused me.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I know who Gestalt is! He's that one guy from The Witcher!

Nah Gestalt's that one version of the original NieR

All an indie showcase would need to be 10/10 is just for Yacht Club Games to just do literally anything.

Also if by some miracle a OneShot port happened but that game cannot feasible run on anything that isn't a PC so nah lol.

Anyways, nah I don't think we got another indie showcase coming up. Probably another 5-8 minute trailer drop for one big game and filler like last week.

Yacht Club's involved with that Cyber Shadow game right?

 

[zferolie]

If I can get some Silksong and Gestalt: Steam and Cinder news, I'd be fine.
none of you know about gestalt do you

Isn't that the steamworld sequal or something? sounds familiar.

But yeah I am dieing to know some silksong news.

 

[SharkLord]

Isn't that the steamworld sequal or something? sounds familiar.

But yeah I am dieing to know some silksong news.

Don't believe it's a sequel to anything, but it is steampunk. Here's a gameplay video, if anyone's interested.

Nah Gestalt's that one version of the original NieR

Yacht Club's involved with that Cyber Shadow game right?

Yep, that's them all right. I'd be down for some news on that.

 

[zferolie]

Don't believe it's a sequel to anything, but it is steampunk. Here's a gameplay video, if anyone's interested.

Yep, that's them all right. I'd be down for some news on that.

guess i was confusing it with another game, but ohh I like the main female design. that hat and long hair, and the game looks fun! Its a metroidvania or padventure game?

 

[SharkLord]

guess i was confusing it with another game, but ohh I like the main female design. that hat and long hair, and the game looks fun! Its a metroidvania or padventure game?

I believe it's metroidvania. It described as an action RPG platformer on it's Twitter page, and Steam says it's metroidvania.

 

[pupNapoleon]

Relatively high demand doesn't ensure that a character will sell more units. Unless that demand translates to enough sales to satisfy Nintendo's market goals,
a character needs to appeal to a wider audience.

Even assuming that all else is equal, BK's success can be explained by their higher demand. The same formula can be applied to both situations, and thus the comparison is apt.

Sales (S) = Fan Demand (D) + Appeal to Others (A)​

The main potential difference is Nintendo's sales targets during different DLC periods, but assuming they are equal, Nintendo presumably judged BK's D or A to be bigger than Geno's (huehuehue).

Of course, maybe we shouldn't assume that all else is equal. Maybe Nintendo really does care enough about things like historical significance to affect whom they select for DLC.

There are also more things to consider than character sales.
Even looking into sales alone, we have the sale of the character, the sale of the fighter pass, the sale of more game units (ultimate), the sale of switch online, the sale of the merchandise (amiibo), and the sale of the actual system itself.
Outside of immediate sales, we have to consider how inclusion of characters could strengthen Nintendo's own IPs down the line, strengthen the company, strengthen their partnerships, strengthen their stock value...

There are truly many factors to consider, and I'm sure not all characters are meant to serve each purpose.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

wtfrick your dreams are nice
i dreamed i was inside the sims and i could see the player looking down at me from the sky, i don’t remember what happened but i do know i had several panic attacks

did the person looking down at you make you get in a pool then take the ladder away?

 

[snowgolem]

did the person looking down at you make you get in a pool then take the ladder away?

either that or removed the door while i was in the bathroom

 

[Flyboy]

I had a dream last night that the next character was Plant again, but it was Petey Piranha. I tried looking for the trailer but it wasn't online anywhere. People swore they saw it on TV and pictures of it leaked on social media. The feeling was a mix between "well maybe the next one will be more hype", calling it a hoax, and "OMG It's Petey!".

 

[Rie Sonomura]

random question

when Bayonetta was added to Smash 4, I feel like some content descriptor changed. was it from "Mild Suggestive Themes" to just "Suggestive Themes"? or they added something

im just thinking about how they'd handle some lyrical songs associated with some newcomers i want, that it can add a descriptor of "Lyrics" and retain an E10+ rating or not. i heard Mass Destruction was censored but idk how (DK Rap wasn't censorship but i think some royalties thing with Chunky or something)

the songs of course are some TWEWY vocal songs which have some vaguely sexual lyrics ("Give Me All Your Love" and to a lesser extent "Make or Break") and the Xenoblade X song "Uncontrollable" (reference to wine in one verse, most of the song alludes to domestic abuse in a relationship)

 

[Gribbo]

I had a dream a while back that the next two characters were Lloyd Irving and Homer Simpson, and they were already in the game but you had to unlock them. Lloyd had to be recruited Fire Emblem-style in some sort of turn-based strategy mode, and while I didn't unlock Homer, I got to play as him in an event match that was basically just The Simpsons Hit and Run but with a Smash HUD. Also Adam Jensen was in it in some form but all I saw was his render.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

random question

when Bayonetta was added to Smash 4, I feel like some content descriptor changed. was it from "Mild Suggestive Themes" to just "Suggestive Themes"? or they added something

im just thinking about how they'd handle some lyrical songs associated with some newcomers i want, that it can add a descriptor of "Lyrics" and retain an E10+ rating or not. i heard Mass Destruction was censored but idk how (DK Rap wasn't censorship but i think some royalties thing with Chunky or something)

the songs of course are some TWEWY vocal songs which have some vaguely sexual lyrics ("Give Me All Your Love" and to a lesser extent "Make or Break") and the Xenoblade X song "Uncontrollable" (reference to wine in one verse, most of the song alludes to domestic abuse in a relationship)

Mass Destruction changed 'Damn right' to 'Alright'. As for wine, good old Drac has a glass of the stuff in the game

 

[Dark Bagel]

For the life of me, I will never understand why they would shill a WWE shovelware title over Atelier, a game from a company they have a great relationship with. Heck, they messed over Sakuna too, and that had it's own Treehouse segment last year!

It's probably because all alchemists have a crippling fear of professional wrestlers, and this conflict dates back centuries. You see, back during the Franco-Prussian War...

 

[GoodGrief741]

When was the last time we didn't have direct talk?

Probably when the last Direct happened. Can't remember when that was anymore tho.